A couple of quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is still doing very well after this week’s chemo. Here next treatment is Monday and then she gets another two week break. Thank you all, again, for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.
Second, I’m going to keep tonight’s update on the shorter side. I’m still trying to kick whatever this low grade cold or flu I’ve got and am just feeling bleh. Part of the reason tonight’s update is so late is I took a four hour nap earlier.
As you can see in the map above, as of 9:13 PM EDT, all of Ukraine is under air raid alert. And as you can see, the map indicates that Russian air force is launching cruise missiles from just over the border in western Russia. It is currently 4:18 AM in Ukraine. The small hours, as they’ve been since the beginning of 2024, are going to be long, tense, and, unfortunately, deadly.
At 1o:07 PM EDT the air raid alerts have come down for all of Ukraine with the exception of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. The 24/7/365 air raid alerts for Russian occupied Luhansk and Crimea remain in place.
Kharkiv had already been attacked earlier today.
Explosion reported in Kharkiv! The city is under russian missile attack!
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) June 21, 2024
As a result graduation had to be held in a shelter:
Graduates of Kharkiv schools sing the anthem with their teachers during the graduation ceremony in a shelter:
“Ukraine’s freedom has not perished,
nor her glory gone.
Once again, all of Ukraine’s
fate will smile upon.”
Honestly, I couldn’t hold back the tears. pic.twitter.com/Ag7ZdBKOLg— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) June 21, 2024
Vovchansk too:
Russian FPV-drone struck a post office vehicle delivering pensions in the Vovchansk district of Kharkiv Oblast, the prosecutor’s office reported. The assault killed the 45-year-old mobile post office manager and wounded the driver. “The site of the attack is currently…
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) June 21, 2024
Russian FPV-drone struck a post office vehicle delivering pensions in the Vovchansk district of Kharkiv Oblast, the prosecutor’s office reported. The assault killed the 45-year-old mobile post office manager and wounded the driver. “The site of the attack is currently inaccessible due to intense shelling,” the prosecutor’s office specified.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Today We Have a Significant Achievement on Our Way to the European Union — the Address by the President
21 June 2024 – 19:58
Dear Ukrainians!
Today – our words of gratitude. In particular, to the entire team of Ukraine that works for the sake of our country and people in the European direction. Today we have a significant achievement on our way to the European Union — the things we had planned for this half of the year are being fully implemented. The European Union has approved a negotiating framework for Ukraine — we fought hard for this at various levels. And it is this framework that determines the format and procedure of accession negotiations with our country. And next week, the negotiations will actually begin. These are indeed historic things. Ukraine is and will always be a part of a united Europe. Today I have approved the composition of the Ukrainian delegation for the start of accession negotiations.
I also want to congratulate Moldova — all the people of Moldova and Madam President Sandu. Today, the EU negotiating framework for Moldova has also been approved. And it is important that every country, every society that truly professes European values and aspires to real European strength — that every such nation — be together with all the others in a united Europe.
I have just spoken with President of Poland Duda. I thanked him for his support of our country: our defense, our progress towards the European Union, and our global initiative — the Peace Summit. We discussed our next joint steps, diverse steps. In particular, our positions before the NATO Summit in Washington, D.C. Moreover, we are preparing further steps to implement the points of the Peace Formula. We also appreciate the fact that Poland can help us to involve other states — those that have not yet joined our common international work for peace. Everyone’s efforts can bring results for all.
Of course, there was a lot of attention on the front today — our military, our prospects. Among other things, there was a report by the Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service. There was a report by the Commander-in-Chief. I’m proud of all our people who are repelling the Russian attacks with great resilience and great courage. The situation in the Kharkiv region is even more stabilized. And this is thanks to our warriors. The situation in the Donetsk region is extremely difficult. Especially the Pokrovsk direction, with dozens of Russian attacks every day. It is very important to withstand there, to destroy the occupier and not to give Russia any reason to hope for any success in its war against Ukraine. We can and must fight to ensure results for Ukraine. In everything. Always. Whenever there is an opportunity, whenever there are chances, and whenever we ourselves have to create our own chances for victory. For the success of Ukraine.
And our gratitude today to the National Team.
Every time the guys push, try, and strive to win, everything works out. I spoke with them today before the match, with Serhiy Rebrov and Andriy Shevchenko, with the guys. I truly hoped for a good result for Ukraine, for our people, so that everyone would feel supported. Every victory is important on the way to our victory. And today we have this result of the National Team!
I thank everyone who gives strength to Ukraine! I thank everyone who fights and believes — believes that we will gain victory!
Glory to Ukraine!
Apparently there was a football match today:
Incredible will to win! A crucial victory for the Ukrainian national team. Well done, guys. You’re the best! 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/kX2VMWH6ji
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) June 21, 2024
Poland:
Everyone’s posting this video. I decided to post it, too.
Polish soccer fans by the Russian embassy in Berlin. pic.twitter.com/EKAV9IGQVb
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 21, 2024
The Netherlands and a country to be named later:
….and from some unidentified nation 😉
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 21, 2024
The Netherlands and another country are going to supply Ukraine with a Patriot system. Defense minister Kajsa Ollongren announced on Friday that they succeeded in collecting parts that can then form a complete system.https://t.co/yyzi8Q1oxv https://t.co/d5WalPz9yX
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 21, 2024
The US:
Two and a half years…. two and a half years.https://t.co/YXEVu1ytUb
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 21, 2024
Here are the details from the AP:
WASHINGTON (AP) — Ukraine’s military is allowed to use longer-range missiles provided by the U.S. to strike targets inside Russia across more than just the front lines near Kharkiv if it is acting in self-defense, the Pentagon said.
President Joe Biden initially loosened the restrictions on how Ukraine could use U.S.-provided munitions to give it another option to defend the eastern city of Kharkiv from a relentless barrage of Russian missiles. Since the beginning of Russia’s 2022 invasion, the U.S. had maintained a policy of not allowing Ukraine to use the weapons it provided to hit targets inside Russia for fear of further escalating the war.
Russia has been firing on Ukrainian targets from inside its border, treating its territory as a “safe zone,” said Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, Pentagon press secretary.
“As we see those forces conducting those types of operations from across the border, we’ve explained Ukraine can and does have the right to fire back to defend themselves,” Ryder told reporters Thursday.
The Pentagon said the additional permissions are not a new policy.
“This is not about geography. It’s about common sense,” said spokesman Army Maj. Charlie Dietz. “If Russia is attacking or about to attack from its territory into Ukraine, it only makes sense to allow Ukraine to hit back against the forces that are hitting it from across the border.”
“Additionally, they can use air defense systems supplied by the United States to take Russian planes out of the sky, even if those Russian planes are in Russian airspace, if they’re about to fire into Ukrainian airspace,” Dietz said in a statement.
If you’ll excuse the phrasing, they’ve almost got this dialed in properly.
This appears to be what MAJ Dietz was referring to:
“Kyiv has been allowed to ‘use air defense systems supplied by the United States to take Russian planes out of the sky, even if those Russian planes are in Russian airspace, if they’re about to fire into Ukrainian airspace,’ said Maj. Charlie Dietz, a Pentagon spokesperson.
That… pic.twitter.com/1wl5FmaBV8
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) June 21, 2024
“Kyiv has been allowed to ‘use air defense systems supplied by the United States to take Russian planes out of the sky, even if those Russian planes are in Russian airspace, if they’re about to fire into Ukrainian airspace,’ said Maj. Charlie Dietz, a Pentagon spokesperson.
That separate policy has been in effect for more than a year, the senior administration official said previously, noting that Ukraine brought down several helicopters and fighter jets using Patriots. ‘There’s never been a restriction’ on using U.S. air defenses to shoot down incoming Russian aircraft in Russian territory, the official said.”
@AlexHortonTX @John_Hudson @nakashimae
https://washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/06/20/ukraine-patriot-air-defense/
Despite what this claim this is most definitely a new policy. Or a major revision to the existing policy that was itself incrementally adjusted a few weeks ago. Unless they’re counting the Russian air craft brought down over the Black Sea from the Odesa battery as in Russian territory.
Hungary:
NATO will carry out its mission in Ukraine, but Hungary will not participate in it, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said during a weekly interview on Kossuth Radio.
“It appears that the Western world, led by the Americans, wants to defeat Russia, with the Germans playing… pic.twitter.com/4q7Np5mxC9
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 21, 2024
NATO will carry out its mission in Ukraine, but Hungary will not participate in it, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said during a weekly interview on Kossuth Radio.
“It appears that the Western world, led by the Americans, wants to defeat Russia, with the Germans playing the role of extras. This is hopeless, and one has to pay such a high price for it that it is not worth it,” he claimed.
The Hungarian government has fulfilled a “minimum goal” by securing assurances from both outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and his presumed successor, Mark Rutte, that Budapest will not be dragged into a NATO mission in Ukraine, the prime minister said.
“I can pull the emergency brake. The train will stop, and we Hungarians will get off this train. … Only the election of Donald Trump can stop the war train,” Orbán said.
Eventually both the EU and NATO will have to decide whether they will continue to allow Putin to subvert both through his catspaw Orban or actually do something about it. The example of the Central African Republic and the Sahel should be all the warning needed. Of course to heed that warning, let alone act on it, you’d actually have to notice it.
We’ve heard from the surrogate, but he’s simply emulating his master.
“For Russia, the strategic defeat means the end of its statehood and thousand-year history. Then the question arises – why should we be afraid? Isn’t it better to go to the end?” – Putin
He says it’s logical.
Following formal logic, that means the end of Putin. pic.twitter.com/XpJTzWQH9c— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 20, 2024
Kyiv:
A video about my book on the Battle of Kyiv:https://t.co/aybfISDwAs
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 21, 2024
Here’s the full video:
Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast:
Vovchansk now.
The plague of Russian fascism has come. pic.twitter.com/OAZ5VdYjr7
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 21, 2024
The Avdiivka direction:
Here is a video showing enemy casualties. This is just one of the roads from the Avdiivka Coke Plant to Ocheretyne. And as you can see every 50 meters destroyed equipment (tanks, artillery installations, trucks, etc.). 80% of what was destroyed was done by FPV drones. pic.twitter.com/KSoC5KbSLp
— Єгор Фірсов (@Firsov_Donetsk) June 21, 2024
The Bakhmut front:
Targeting of the Russian T-90M on the Bakhmut front. https://t.co/tgzXvcYVnK pic.twitter.com/W8tx7Tf2Jk
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 21, 2024
The Russian occupied Kerch Strait:
Russia continues adding barriers around the Crimean bridge to defend against Ukraine’s naval drones in the Kerch Strait. pic.twitter.com/sTirLnxDuv
— Brady Africk (@bradyafr) June 21, 2024
The Black Sea:
Russian sources associated with the Russian military aviation report about the loss of the Russian Ka-29 helicopter.
Those are actively used by Russians to counter Ukrainian naval kamikaze drone attacks in Black Sea area. Judging by the tone of the Russian posts, the crew died. pic.twitter.com/v5DrshKIG6
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 21, 2024
/3. Russians report that 4 crew members died on board of Ka-29 pic.twitter.com/ngsqXIxqSh
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 21, 2024
Here’s the full text of the second tweet above:
/2. The Russian version of events is that this was a friendly fire incident. Russian comments regarding the loss of Ka-29:
“The Ukrainians used new tactics. Simultaneous attack by naval kamikaze drones and UAVs.
To fight off naval kamikaze drones, you need to raise helicopters; to fight off hundreds of UAVs, you need air defense to destroy aerial targets. And one thing doesn’t go well with the other.
This tactic was expected. For a year and a half, Ukrainians have been hitting the ground with missiles at the moment when our front-line aviation enters the launch/drop zone. An overload of channels is artificially created with the hope of an error and less efficiency and freedom of action for air defense operations.”
Moscow:
“They know Putin doesn’t have an indefinite sell-by date. So the higher they get, the more chances they have to find a secure place if the system splits.”
Succession, Kremlin-style: on the Russian princelings taking over top posts. with @courtney_ft:https://t.co/EYwZQUlAf7
— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 21, 2024
The Financial Times has the details: (emphasis mine)
Little in Anna Tsivileva’s public resume, which includes a stint as a psychiatrist in a mental hospital and selling medical supplies before she became a coal tycoon, suggested Vladimir Putin would appoint her as Russian deputy defence minister earlier this week.
Instead, Tsivileva’s key qualification appears to be an open secret: she is Putin’s first cousin once removed, part of a close-knit family the Russian president rarely acknowledges.
The meteoric rise of Tsivileva, 52, is part of a wave of senior appointments for the children and other close relatives of senior Russian officials following Putin’s re-election in March, which extended his rule until at least 2030.
The prominence of the Kremlin princelings indicates Putin, 71, is making plans to ensure his regime’s longevity even as he puts the country on a war footing to sustain his invasion of Ukraine, analysts say.
“This is about succession — it’s an attempt to hand over power. The new generation of princes and princesses is becoming more prominent,” said Ilya Shumanov, head of Transparency International’s Russia branch.
Tsivileva’s appointment points to Putin’s competing priorities after he put Andrei Belousov, a statist economic official, at the helm of the defence ministry last month and gave him a mandate to track Russia’s ballooning spending on security more closely.
Belousov’s top deputy will be Leonid Gornin, a well-regarded deputy finance minister, indicating the Kremlin does indeed want better control of its resources.
But the need to place the future of Putin’s regime in the trusted hands of Kremlin princelings will clash with his technocrats’ efforts to keep the system afloat, Shumanov said.
“There’s an imbalance when you have too many clans who are there not because of their professional qualities, but because they have the president’s blessing to access financial resources,” he added. “People are in jobs they shouldn’t have.”
Among the lucky few to secure promotions in Putin’s new cabinet in May were Dmitry Patrushev, son of Nikolai Patrushev, the longtime former head of Russia’s security council; and Boris Kovalchuk, son of the banking and media billionaire Yuri Kovalchuk, one of Putin’s closest friends.
Dmitry Patrushev, who had previously spent six years as Russia’s agriculture minister, was elevated to the position of deputy prime minister. The younger Kovalchuk will now run Russia’s audit chamber, a government accountability body.
Several other progeny in Putin’s coterie have been given prominent and highly coveted government or business roles in recent years. Pavel Fradkov, whose father Mikhail is a former prime minister and foreign intelligence chief, was appointed a deputy defence minister alongside Tsivileva on Monday; his older brother Petr runs a major state bank serving the defence industry.
Roman Rotenberg is deputy head of Russia’s ice hockey federation and coaches two of the country’s top teams, all while retaining a senior post at state-run Gazprombank. Earlier this month, Rotenberg — whose billionaire uncle Arkady, a former judo sparring partner of Putin’s, is chair of the federation — said he was against “crony children” in sport.
One former high-ranking Russian government official said the ensconcement of the next generations in such plum roles was all about Putin paying back those who had paved his path to power.
“There are many people to whom he [Putin] owes something,” the person said.
In particular, according to the former official, Putin wanted to reward Nikolai Patrushev, who had pushed the men of the FSB to rally behind Putin when he was first named head of the security service, and Yuri Kovalchuk, whom the US Treasury has called Putin’s “personal banker” and played a key role in convincing him to order the invasion of Ukraine.
The succession of Dmitry Patrushev and Boris Kovalchuk was another part of paying back those debts, the former official said. “The sons are moving up and he agreed to move them.”
Another former senior government official described the rationale as “simple, human, parental feelings”. Or as he put it: “No need to think too much, just take care of the children.”
The nepotistic appointments indicate Russia’s entrenched elite want to secure their position in the longer term, Shumanov said.
“They know Putin doesn’t have an indefinite sell-by date. So the higher they can get, the more chances they have to survive and find a secure place if the system splits,” he added. “That’s why they’re trying to get control of more assets, so they’ll have a stronger bargaining position.”
Much more at the link.
As I’ve said for a long time, Patrushev is the most likely person to take over from Putin. He is also more extreme, more nationalistic, and more militaristic.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns Беру вас з собою у Львів! #песпатрон #дснс
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Open thread!
Carlo Graziani
As far as I can tell by questioning the Internet Oracle, the Polish football fans are chanting “Ruska kurwa!” which apparently translates to “Russia, whore!”
Personally, I feel that the Dynamo Kyiv fans’ chant of “Putin Khuylo, La-La-La-La-La-La-La” was a far superior example of the genre, but perhaps it sounds better to Polish ears.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Covid test negative I hope?
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
Putin has scored yet another own goal. He has riled South Korea so much with his North Korean agreement, that they are talking about sending weapons to Ukraine, something that South Korea has resisted since the invasion began. Talk about unintended consequences! I would value your thoughts on this development. He’s also seriously annoyed China, who are suddenly talking to American representatives. So many moving parts.
Thank you Adam. I’m glad Rosie is doing so well. More to the point, I hope you are doing better. You kind of went on a bit of a rant last week, & it scared the Hell out of me. I value your judgement over my own because even thinking about this stuff is so new to me. Plus I’m an optimist; you’re a realist with vast knowledge & experience. But I value your honesty no matter how dark things get. Get better & have a good weekend.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: Yep. Both. And I make sure to swab the back of my throat first, as that’s where the variants like to hang out, and then each nostril. I’m also current on all boosters and I don’t have any COVID specific symptoms.
Jay
@Adam L Silverman:
Here the BC CDC is putting out “alerts” that a “summer cold” might not be a summer cold.
People are getting mild cases of Covid, (for them), not testing, and going to work.
Glad it’s not Covid.
YY_Sima Qian
Having all these losses attributed to “friendly fire” is, if anything, more embarrassing for Russia.
YY_Sima Qian
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom: Well, SK is “reconsidering”, probably waiting to see how the Russo-NK deal is operationalized, so we will have to see.
The Sino-Russian “unlimited friendship” always had limits. The reason Putin is begging NK & Iran for drones/missiles/munitions is because the PRC has not been willing to sell lethal weapons & munitions to Russia, even though it has huge stockpiles in storage (& likely of better quality than the NK stuff), & has the defense industrial capacity to make even greater volumes.
The PLA has hundreds, if not > 1K, of retired DF-11 & DF-15 SRBMs in storage, probably millions of rounds of 152 mm howitzer shells sitting idle (as the caliber is being steadily phased out from active service). It is still making plenty of 82 & 120 mm mortar bombs, 122 mm howitzer shells, & 122 & 300 mm rockets for active service (including many precision guided versions), not to mention a huge variety of drones & loitering munitions (likely superior to their Russian counterparts).
The PRC & the U.S. are now talking to each other because of their own reasons, Putin is a negligible factor. Beijing is probably miffed at the Russo-NM entente, but probably will not do much about it unless events on the Korean Peninsula trend toward crisis.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
@YY_Sima Qian: I’m sure you’re right. Just the same, I think the fact SK went, basically, Defcon 2 when the agreement was announced, says something about how they’re really feeling about it. I guess we’ll just have to wait. Of course, as a supporter of Ukraine, I really hope they do it. But even I know things are never that simple, in that part of the world. Too many moving parts.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
YY_Sima Qian
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom: As I wrote in yesterday’s thread, if SK really does change course in a big way wrt to selling/donating weapons/munitions to Ukraine, Putin’s deal w/ KJU will turn into a net loss. SK has greater defense industrial capacity than NK, & producing more sophisticated & higher quality ware. KJU doesn’t care because that means less of the SK defense industrial capacity will be pointed at him.
Keep in mind that NK has had a longstanding Mutual Defense Treaty w/ the PRC, dating back to the 70s, w/ terms similar to the Russo-NK deal. OTOH, the PRC has made it clear to the Kim multiple times that the treaty does not cover NK attacking SK & thereby provoking an SK/US response. Russia is far less important to SK economically compared to the PRC, & has been much more will than the PRC to aid NK’s conventional arms & ballistic/cruise missile programs. I think it is the Russia trading its mil-tech for NK munitions & missiles aspect that is concerning the SK government. The reactionary right wing currently occupied the Blue House in Seoul, & they tend to chart a much more hawkish course wrt NK in general, & thus tend to overreact, as well.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Well, it is the Blue House,…..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_House_raid
Another Scott
@Jay: Whew. That “Aftermath” section is something else. I was a kid then so wasn’t paying much attention at the time…
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
YY_Sima Qian
@Another Scott: What’s surprising to me is that, during the height of the Cold War, the head of the KCIA was still able to meet face to face w/ Kim, Sr. in Pyongyang, even in the wake of a major NK provocation (could have been causes belli). Yet, this kind of clandestine meeting has been much more difficult in the past couple of decades.
Another Scott
Meanwhile, …
(Emphasis added.)
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.