Archives for 2024
War for Ukraine Day 1,040: A Brief Sunday Afternoon Update

Quick housekeeping note: As I mentioned yesterday, I’ve got something I have to do this afternoon and evening, so just a quick and somewhat abbreviated update going up early today.
Here’s some updated information on the Russian sabotage of undersea cables:
I think oil tanker EAGLE S damaged at least one more cable yesterday in Gulf of Finland.
Subsea communications cable C-LION1 (Helsinki – Rostock) had an outage yesterday, reported at 16:50Z.
16:42Z cable saboteur suspect EAGLE S passed this cable.
EAGLE S is arrested by Finnish Coast Guard.
— auonsson (@auonsson.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 4:14 AM
Besides the likely damaged electricity cable Estlink2 and now C-LION1, this ship passed numerous other cables and pipes and I have expected more issues.
Thanks @akihheikkinen.bsky.social for finding this.
— auonsson (@auonsson.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 4:14 AM
I am told in private that there are two more Gulf of Finland communication cables cut. Connecting Tallin and Helsinki. I have not been able to verify it yet. Happy for help in that matter!
As you can see from this (schematic!) map there are plenty of options.
— auonsson (@auonsson.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 4:18 AM
This is the impact on electricity:
600 MW of import from FI via Estlink 2 is eliminated. Estlink 1 is running at the limit with 350 MW. Forwarding to Latvia is stopped completely.
Exports to Russia are reversed, and as a result 200 MW are imported from Russia.
energy-charts.info/charts/power…
— Der grüne Gaumen (@astro-sven.bsky.social) December 26, 2024 at 4:21 AM
Since autumn 2023 11 cables and pipes have been damaged by ships dragging their anchors in Baltic Sea.
Trust @garygnutter.bsky.social for details!
Not in list: the attempt by Yi Peng 3 to rip the electrical cables to Læsø, Denmark.
— auonsson (@auonsson.bsky.social) December 28, 2024 at 4:50 AM
It’s almost like there’s a world war.
War for Ukraine Day 1,040: A Brief Sunday Afternoon UpdatePost + Comments (32)
Inflation by Race and Location
The Minneapolis Federal Reserve has a paper on inflation where the author gathers stats by race and location, among other indicators. Starting with race:

In a recent interview, New York Fed economist Rajashri Chakrabarti told me the transportation component of the basket was a significant factor that drove inflation for Hispanic households more than 1.5 percentage points above average. As vehicle and gas prices normalized, housing inflation became the more important factor, with a disproportionate effect on Asian households. But by mid-2023, the differences by race were again small.
The New York Fed also deflates each group’s weekly earnings by its respective inflation rate. This shows that after all the fluctuations in recent years, earnings adjusted for inflation have taken a slight step backward from pre-pandemic across the board (Figure 6). And there has been little change in the relative inequality across the groups.

Poisonous
I don’t post about international affairs much — that’s Adam’s thing and the only politics I know anything about is in North America. But, as is our ritual over the holidays, I watched the nightly news with my old man last night, and this story is just pure horror:
One of northern Gaza’s last functioning hospitals, Kamal Adwan in Beit Lahia, is “suffering from a stifling siege,” Gaza’s Health Ministry said Friday after Israeli forces stormed inside and “forcibly” removed health workers, patients and family members, as military vehicles surrounded the hospital.
“The operating and surgical departments, laboratory, maintenance, and emergency units have been completely burned, and the fire is now spreading to the buildings,” the ministry’s statement said.
This is from NBC News and it ran in last night’s prime-time newscast. One of the most gut-wrenching parts of the video was watching the hospital administrator, who had been interviewed multiple times by NBC (they said) being dragged out and labeled as a Hamas collaborator. He looked just broken.
Again, I’m not an expert in the Gaza conflict, but I am a human being with two eyes and two ears, and this whole fucking episode has been nothing but poison for our side, who we like to think are the “good guys”. The regular reports of Biden being big mad at Bibi Netanyahu, while doing essentially nothing about Bibi’s obvious prolongation of this conflict to stave off the reckoning for his corruption, was at least a factor in our loss this cycle, and certainly promoted the narrative of Biden being old and out of touch.
It doesn’t fucking matter that Trump will be worse, which he certainly will be. From the perspective of consequences for innocents in Gaza, how much worse can it get than burning down one of the last functioning hospitals, which is happening prior to Trump taking office?
It does matter that Hamas killed 1,200 in October, 2023. Does that justify burning down a hospital in December, 2024, and if it does, why? Does it justify killing 45,000 Palestinians, as well as hundreds of journalists and aid workers?
The moral ugliness of financing the army that burns down hospitals and murders civilians was a factor in the election, and we need to get this one right next time. I don’t know, exactly, what “right” is, but I know what it isn’t. I saw it on TV last night.
He’s a Doddering Old Liar – Repeat It
I’m going to start with some words of wisdom from Frank Luntz:
You say it again, and you say it again, and you say it again, and you say it again, and you say it again, and then again and again and again and again, and about the time that you’re absolutely sick of saying it is about the time that your target audience has heard it for the first time.
Or, perhaps the immortal words of the White Stripes are more to your liking: “Well, I’ve said it once before, and it bears repeating.”
Trump makes a lot of noise. That noise is designed to distract from some embarrassing truths about the guy:
- He lies to his base all the time. He lied about immigration — he likes visa programs for him and his rich friends. He lied about bringing down the price of groceries — now he says it would be “very hard” which means it won’t happen.
- Trump has lost the juice: he’s old and weak. He lets Elon Musk call the shots while he’s out golfing at Mar-a-Lago. No wonder everyone is calling Elon “President Musk.”
- Trump’s brain is shot. He thinks the short-term visas he gets so he can underpay his immigrant cleaners at Mar-a-Lago are the same as the long-term ones they give to tech workers in Silicon Valley, probably because President Musk told him so.
Is this simplistic? God, I hope so, and if it isn’t, we need to dumb it down further. Whenever some reporter shoves a microphone in front of a Democrat and asks about Trump’s latest stupid remarks, calling them “stupid” and pointing out that they’re either a lie, a sign of weakness, or a sign of him losing the plot is, as far as I’m concerned, the way to go.
Unite. Fight. Win.
Unite. Fight. Win.
If we’re going to take on Trump, Republican extremists, and move our country forward, the Democratic Party needs to be stronger. I’m running for Chair of the Democratic National Committee to unite the party, fight everywhere, and win. Join me. 🧵
— Ben Wikler (@benwikler.bsky.social) December 1, 2024 at 8:14 AM
Unite. Fight. Win. That’s Ben Wikler’s pitch for moving forward.
I’d say we’re doing great! So awesome, in fact, that some days we skip right over “Unite” and go straight for “Fight”. But I think we’re supposed to be fighting the other guys.
“You can’t wring your hands when you’re rolling up your sleeves.”
This is a 2-minute video, please take 2 minutes to watch it.
The only other candidate that I could possibly get excited about is Beto.
Split Screen (Open Thread)
We chose life in a swampy wilderness so we could observe the waterfowl, otters, gators and other critters, but we also enjoy watching football, especially this time of year. A screen-within-screen approach yields the best of both worlds.

Photo is from Friday, as eagle-eyed readers who know their bowl game schedule may deduce. (Go ‘Dores!) But we’ve got the same set-up on tap all weekend.
Did a deep house cleaning yesterday (by my standards; I suspect Mr. Cole’s are far more rigorous). It was exhausting since I had really let the place go and didn’t have holiday guests to motivate me earlier.
I despise cleaning, but the results sure are satisfying. At least until the dogs track mud through the house again.
We’re supposed to get lots of rain soon — the same front that menaced valued commenter Nukular Biskits overnight (hope you’re okay, pal!) appears to be barreling toward us.
The local frogs are now confirming human/AI weather predictions by elaborate trilling, so I believe it.
***
Speaking of goddamn fucking AI, which I am beginning to suspect is the fucking devil sent to torment us in the guise of a “helpful” tool, I think Apple’s latest “upgrade” is responsible for doubling my text error rate with bullshit “corrections” that render snippets of prose incoherent.
I could turn it off — it may come to that! But it does save time when it works correctly. The problem is it’s aggressively wresting control to make matters worse.
God help you if you fat-finger a space instead of a letter in the middle of a word. Then it just flat makes up the dumbest shit to fill in the blank. Feh!
***
Do any of y’all have a portable induction cooktop? I’m considering one since I hate the fucking cooktop on our current (and likely last) stove.
The oven is fine, and the cooktop works well enough for boiling water and simple stuff like that, but it sucks for any type of cooking that requires precise temperature control or finesse. I’ve had it with split sauces, scorched fish fillets, etc.
If you have a portable cooktop, I’d be grateful for any insights and/or recs/warnings you could share.
Other than that, open thread!
