A quick housekeeping note from last night’s second post: thank you all for the kind words and well wishes. As I wrote in a comment, the point of the personal anecdote was to drive the point home that Jordan Neely shouldn’t be dead because he had a bad day and he was not fortunate enough, as I am, to have people to support him. Especially as the institutions that should have failed him. There’s one additional point: that no one seems to have done anything to help him and everyone just made videos and took pictures and watched him be murdered is perhaps one of the cruelest parts of this tragedy.
President Zelenskyy is traveling again today and while there is a video of his joint press conference, there is not a daily address. I’ll have the video of the press conference with the write up from the presidential website after the jump.
Before we get to the newer information about last night’s drone strikes, earlier today Ukrainian air defense had to bring down one of their own Bayrakter Tb2s over Kyiv as it had malfunctioned and was out of control.
Update: Now confirmed with two Ukrainian sources with direct knowledge plus Ukraine's Air Force statement: Drone shot down over Kyiv today was a Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 that was out of control due to technical reasons. @FThttps://t.co/gLhVnR6N6Z https://t.co/MwIiswQb1G
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 4, 2023
Here’s a machine translation from the post explaining the intercept on the Ukrainian Air Force’s Facebook page:
On May 4, around 8 p.m., a Bayraktar TB2 UAV lost control during a scheduled flight in the Kyiv region.
Since the uncontrolled presence of the UAV in the sky of the capital could have led to undesirable consequences, it was decided to use mobile fire teams.
The target was destroyed!
It’s a pity, but this is technology, and such cases do happen.It was probably a technical malfunction, and the cause is being investigated.
There were no casualties or injuries as a result of the combat operation and the fall of the UAV wreckage.
We don’t really know a whole lot more tonight than we did last night about the attempted drone attack on the Kremlin. The Financial Times has some of the details:
The US has accused Russia of “lying” after it claimed Washington was behind a drone attack on the Kremlin this week, raising tensions ahead of an expected Ukrainian counter-offensive against Russian forces.
Russia also launched its own drones at Ukrainian cities overnight following the incident in Moscow in the early hours of Wednesday, which the Kremlin called a Ukrainian attempt to assassinate President Vladimir Putin.
Multiple explosions rocked Kyiv later on Thursday, with machine gun fire also heard, indicating Ukraine’s forces were firing skywards to intercept incoming drones. There were no immediate reports of casualties or damage.
White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said: “There was no involvement by the United States in [the Kremlin incident]. Whatever it was did not involve us . . . We had nothing to do with this.”
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also strongly rejected any suggestion of involvement in the attack, in which Russia said it shot down two drones over a Kremlin building in the early hours of Wednesday morning, briefly causing some roofing to catch fire.
Military analysts in Moscow also suggested that a non-state group could be behind the attempt, using commercially available drones.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on Thursday said Russia saw the assault as a Ukrainian attack “dictated from across the ocean”.
“These decisions, the determination of targets, the determination of means, all of that is dictated to Kyiv from Washington. We are well aware of this,” Peskov told journalists.
“It is important that Washington clearly understands that we know this,” he added, “and that it understands how dangerous such direct involvement is in the conflict.”
Kirby said the statements were “false” and Peskov “is just lying”.
Alongside Ukraine’s president, a host of senior officials have also denied that Ukraine was behind the alleged attack on Moscow’s symbolic seat of power.
The Kremlin has said Putin was not in the building at the time. Asked about his reaction, Peskov presented the Russian leader as unperturbed and said the damage to the building was slight. “There are two burnt copper sheets that cover the dome, they will be replaced, if they have not already been replaced . . . There is no other damage.”
Western governments have declined to assign responsibility for the incident. A White House spokesperson on Wednesday said Russia had a history of “false flag” operations designed to discredit the enemy. She said the US had not encouraged or helped Ukraine to strike outside its own borders.
Much more at the link!
I think we can reasonably conclude, given all the other drone strikes in Russia over the past couple of days, that this was a Ukrainian strike. We know they can go deep enough to hit the Engels air bases. As such I think the first possibility from last night was the right one. This was a Ukrainian strike, it wasn’t meant to assassinate Putin, but to demonstrate that Ukraine could reach out and touch Moscow if it wanted to. And that regardless of who did it or the purpose of the strike, the Russians were and are going to continue to milk it for all its worth in terms of agitprop.
This is a measure of success:
Looks like Russian authorities are so afraid of renewed drone attacks in Moscow that they are spoofing/jamming the GPS navigation signal. Muscovites can no longer order cabs. https://t.co/mt4BqZXG2y pic.twitter.com/BNefAWFdwD
— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) May 4, 2023
I’m going to put the jump in here and then pick back up with more on the attempted strike on the Kremlin:
Remember those anti-Putin Russian militia guys we were talking about a few months back, connected to the same group that claimed credit for killing Dugin’s daughter?
As soon as Ponomarev takes credit, we'll then know 100% this was a Ukrainian HUR operation. https://t.co/ZldxjyGJls
— Aric Toler (@AricToler) May 3, 2023
Here’s the tweet from Mykhailo Podylak, who is one of President Zelenskky’s senior advisors followed by the full text of the tweet (emphasis mine):
As for the drones over the Kremlin. It’s all predictable… Russia is clearly preparing a large-scale terrorist attack. That's why it first detains a large allegedly subversive group in Crimea. And then it demonstrates "drones over the Kremlin". First of all, Ukraine wages an…
— Михайло Подоляк (@Podolyak_M) May 3, 2023
As for the drones over the Kremlin. It’s all predictable… Russia is clearly preparing a large-scale terrorist attack. That’s why it first detains a large allegedly subversive group in Crimea. And then it demonstrates “drones over the Kremlin”. First of all, Ukraine wages an exclusively defensive war and does not attack targets on the territory of the Russian Federation. What for? This does not solve any military issue. But it gives RF grounds to justify its attacks on civilians… Secondly, we are watching with interest the growing number of mishaps and incidents that are taking place in different parts of RF. The emergence of unidentified unmanned aerial vehicles at energy facilities or on Kremlin’s territory can only indicate the guerilla activities of local resistance forces.As you know, drones can be bought at any military store… The loss of power control over the country by Putin’s clan is obvious. But on the other hand, Russia has repeatedly talked about its total control over the air. In a word, something is happening in RF, but definitely without Ukraine’s drones over the Kremlin…
I agree with Aric Toler’s assessment:
The entire crux of their assertion that the drone attack was a false flag is by assuming that Russian air defense is impenetrable. These two drones getting through to the Kremlin makes the Russian military look inept and weak. https://t.co/6sCY6RX8lb
— Aric Toler (@AricToler) May 4, 2023
Most of all: what will would they achieve with this? What is Russia doing/will they do that's measurably different now than 36 hours ago? They'll still attack Kyiv, try to take Bakhmut, and weakly threaten further escalations. When you do a false flag, you have a follow-up plan.
— Aric Toler (@AricToler) May 4, 2023
When the drone attacks happened, Russian air defense looks completely useless, and the public is shown that even Moscow can be attacked.
Russia responds by… putting out some strongly-worded statements, and then launching even more drone attacks at Kyiv and Odesa.
— Aric Toler (@AricToler) May 4, 2023
Again, the more information dribbles out, not that a lot has dribbled out, the more I’m convinced it was possibility 1 from last night.
Alright, here’s the video of President Zelenskky’s joint press conference from this afternoon.
And here’s the English language write up from the presidential website:
President of Ukraine following the negotiations with Prime Ministers of the Netherlands and Belgium: We are meeting in The Hague to bring peace closer and restore justice
4 May 2023 – 16:55
During an official visit to the Kingdom of the Netherlands, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte and Prime Minister of Belgium Alexander De Croo.
The talks took place both one-on-one and in a trilateral format.
Speaking to the media following the talks, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “We are meeting here in The Hague to bring peace closer and restore justice. We need justice.”
The President of Ukraine expressed gratitude to Mark Rutte and the people of the Netherlands for their powerful assistance in strengthening Ukraine’s defense capabilities.
“The Patriot and other weapons that the Netherlands provided us have already saved thousands of Ukrainian lives! Thank you!” he said.
The Head of State thanked Prime Minister Alexander De Croo and the whole of Belgium for solidarity in the protection of common European values.
“Thank you for your support of sanctions against Russia and aid packages for our country and people,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted.
During the talks, the parties focused on security issues. As the President of Ukraine emphasized, the main thing now is the speed of delivery of the promised weapons.
“I have called on our partners, both the Netherlands and Belgium, to help us implement the agreements on military assistance – as quickly as possible. Very important is that we are working to create a coalition of armoured vehicles to complement the existing coalition of tanks. We hope that the Netherlands and Belgium, together with the Nordic countries and all our partners, will effectively support our initiative to create a coalition of armoured vehicles,” the Head of State emphasized.
In addition, according to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, it is time to make positive decisions for Ukraine regarding modern aircraft.
“There is no rational reason to postpone such decisions. To train our pilots and to strengthen the wings for Ukraine means to speed up the peace we all want,” the President noted.
The interlocutors also discussed common Euro-Atlantic security.
“De facto, Ukraine has already become a part of NATO – we cooperate, we trust each other and together we truly make Europe stronger. So, it stands to reason that Ukraine should become part of the Alliance de jure – the thirty-third NATO country. The algorithm of actions in this regard can and should be approved by political decisions at the Vilnius summit of the Alliance this summer. And we count-on the support of our partners,” the President emphasized.
The agenda of the talks between Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Mark Rutte and Alexander De Croo also included relations between Ukraine and the EU. The President noted that he expects a positive assessment of Ukraine’s progress in implementing the European Commission’s recommendations.
“We are doing our best during the war, we are doing all the reforms that we have to do, and this will be the time when political positive momentum will open the way to a new and long-lasting positive history both for Ukraine and for the whole of Europe,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy is convinced.
The Head of State expressed gratitude for the support of the Ukrainian Peace Formula that can not only restore territorial integrity and security of Ukraine, but also reliably guarantee long-term security of Europe and the world.
“This is our joint task – to restore the full force of the UN Charter and international law in general – everything that was violated by Putin and Russia. Peace calls for sanctions to be stronger, for the isolation of Russia to be more complete. Peace calls for assets of the terrorist state to be confiscated. And peace calls for damages to be repaired and ruins to be rebuilt. And I am sure – we will do it together,” the Head of State said.
For his part, the Prime Minister of the Netherlands emphasized that his country will continue to support Ukraine in its struggle, and Russia must be held accountable for the crime of aggression and injustice it commits against the Ukrainian people.
“The Netherlands will do everything possible to ensure justice for Ukraine, no matter how long it takes and no matter how difficult it is,” said Mark Rutte.
According to the Prime Minister of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, Russian aggression reminds the world every day that the rule of law must be constantly protected.
“Ukraine will remain in our hearts and memory not only today, but every day until peace and freedom are restored in your country,” he said.
The Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Belgium reminded that his country, like the Netherlands and many other countries, has been supporting Ukraine since the first days of the full-scale invasion, and called for the continuation of this support.
“We will continue this support and demonstrate our solidarity with Ukraine. Now it’s our turn to help Ukraine get rid of the brutal and illegal occupation again. This is the same occupation that our countries experienced during World War II. That is why the Belgian government is preparing a new package of military assistance to Ukraine,” assured Alexander De Croo.
He reminded that since the beginning of the war, Belgium has frozen more than 50 billion euros in assets of Russian individuals and legal entities.
“We are now exploring how we can fully utilize the proceeds of these Russian assets to support the reconstruction of Ukraine. Belgium is ready to play a leading role in this in the European Commission,” said the Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Belgium.
There was no operational update posted today by the Ukrainian MOD, nor any other new posts on their Telegram channel.
The Ukrainian Air Force wishes everyone a good evening!
Work with the best view from the window 🫡🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/bJvNFFx9WK
— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) May 4, 2023
Lord, guard and guide the men fly
Through the great spaces in the sky.
Be with them always in the air,
In darkening storms or sunlight fair;
Oh, hear us when we lift our prayer,
For those in peril in the air!
Mary C. D. Hamilton (1915)
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situation in Bakhmut:
BAKHMUT CITY /1930 UTC 4 MAY/ UKR forces have initiated offensive action in the vicinity of Heologiv Street, west of the H-32 HWY loop. UKR Lines of Communication & Supply assessed as secure; UKR will continue urban operations. pic.twitter.com/zKGxJw27ka
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) May 4, 2023
BAKHMUT AXIS /1245 UTC 4 MAY/ Heavy urban fighting resumed in the W urban areas of Bakhmut. RU conducted wide-spread artillery barrages over the entire axis. Russian attacks at Ivanivske and Predtechyne were broken up. pic.twitter.com/JArGX6zrSx
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) May 4, 2023
I remind everyone, again, that Pfarrer is making these maps in the style and manner he would if he was briefing his SEALs or his leadership before he retired. They are not an end all be all, but the provide a certain amount of information displayed in a visual format. And it does not mean he doesn’t get stuff wrong. We all do from time to time.
Anyhow, here’s a great thread from the Australian Strategy and Policy Institute’s Nathan Russer, who is himself fond of making maps, on the issues with these types of things. First tweet from the thread followed by the rest from the Thread Reader App:
OK, ISW is becoming a major problem in the media ecosystem. This assessment is just a hunch from their mapping team (one that I disagree with), and yet their role in providing maps will see this (bad) opinion laundered as fact by many journalists who print what they say verbatim. https://t.co/XR0xRzYgAm
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) May 4, 2023
You can have reasonable theories that this was a false flag, I disagree for the simple fact that it makes the Kremlin look inept and weak as hell. But the point is, it’s irresponsible to throw these largely baseless theories out there knowing how they’ll be consumed.And the other point is (and this is coming from someone who has mapped Ukraine in meticulous detail), the people you don’t want making this assessment and putting it out there are the people who’s only job is to map the situation in meticulous detail.The skillset required for mapping are not the skills required to make a valid assessment about this incident. Especially based on the sparse OSINT information. Look how much effort journalists (not Hersch) put into the recent story about Russian ships near Nordstream.These updates aren’t just people posting theories on twitter, which is fine, but have become incredibly incorporated into the process that media uses to write the first draft of history for this war (and I’m sure it makes it to classified Intel summaries too).And I understand the pressure to comment on each piece of news, especially knowing the media engagement it will get, but sometimes speculation and assessment based on incomplete information or one geolocated video, is irresponsible to launder into the first draft of history.Their role in repeatedly spreading incorrect assessments implying Ukrainian forces have established a foothold on the S bank of the Dnipro show that the institutional pressure to publish ‘newsworthy’ assessment every day has overtaken their care for an always-accurate product.See the nested thread of me complaining about this here.Now I understand the media plays a role in this too, ISW does add nuance to their product that dampen the ‘confidence’ in many of these poor assessments, and they can’t control how the media will often (& wrongly) jump onto the story and repeat their claims with far less nuance.But they surely understand this now. When ISW says something, the media repeats it in their starved daily summaries without nuance, and that whole citogenisis cycle starts right up turning a ‘may have’ into a ‘did’.And it comes down to being responsible with the ‘info’ you put out, understanding its role in the media ecosystem and prioritising more than media engagement with a daily product.Ukraine has settled on many fronts into much of a WW1, trench warfare type of situation, where the changes on the ground are absolutely not adequate for a 10-page daily summary. This begs for invalid speculation.Yet it is hard to ramp back a product that serves you well.
This is the same for the UK MoD daily summaries, which are largely useless now.I understand why it is how it is, but not doing better really risks your credibility, and even if lazy journalists keep citing your work, once seriously observers start viewing your product as inaccurate and unreliable, it is really hard to come back from that.There’s nothing wrong with saying ‘no major developments today, continued fighting in x, y, z with some reports of limited greyzone gains by blah in y.’
much better than trying to fill the space with speculation or feeling the need to prematurely assess breaking developments.The ISW intel summary of this is so fundamentally flawed that it fails to mention that there were two drones that hit the kremlin, and implies it was a single strike that took place when people were already on the roof, not two strikes, one of which took place 13min earlier.950 words on the attack without a single sentence entertaining the idea that it could be a genuine attack.When lazy journalists read this there is a single conclusion they will make (given it being unbalenced in its entirity) and this is clear from reading media coverage.
Much of their assessment relies on the idea that drones could not penetrate Russian air defence… That is NOT an assessment I would trust open-source mapping professionals (very much including myself) to make.It fails to mention how irrevokably incompetent it makes Russia look, it fails to mention the fact that this could be designed to pull air-defence away from other ‘shaping targets’ to protect Moscow, it fails to mention any balance, it’s very lazy and one-sided.Hard to expect more when you give a couple of people a deadline of 5 or 6 hours to write ten pages on an event that just happened without any clear information in the open source yet. Of course it will be full of errors and incomplete.More broadly, the 24-hour news cycle problem is a massive problem for the online OSINTers when reality along with shaping and military operations are happening on a scale of months not hours.
But somewhere with the institutional audience of ISW should know beter.
I hope that’s better for whichever one of you – my apologies that I forgot who it was – who asked if I could not copy and paste it in dark mode.
Here’s a thread on an adjacent theme from the University of Toronto’s John Scott-Railton:
A blue check account w/a history of sensationalist nonsense is tweeting nuclear alarmism.
Meanwhile the real North American Aerospace Defense Command* isn't verified. pic.twitter.com/L28Rdersu0
— John Scott-Railton (@jsrailton) May 4, 2023
Friends, if you're doing the lord's work debunking OSINT-branded accounts doing nuclear nonsense I salute you. Just please don't Quote Tweet em.
Quote Tweets extend the reach of the initial misinformation & tells Twitter to reward the account with more engagement.
Which is bad.
— John Scott-Railton (@jsrailton) May 4, 2023
*Healthy* OSINT communities tend to self-develop standards of care around information & verification.
And language.
If you see an OSINT-branded account doing breathless alarmism around unsourced rumors, this tells you all you need to know.
— John Scott-Railton (@jsrailton) May 4, 2023
Appending a little sanity from @Reuters herehttps://t.co/8c4Tki8b9i
— John Scott-Railton (@jsrailton) May 4, 2023
Accounts doing nuclear alarmism in #Ukraine aren't just muddying the information environment.
When they go viral, they get read *in war zones*.
Civilians in places like Kyiv read them last night.
And had to make real decisions.
It is traumatizing. Cruel. And shameful.
— John Scott-Railton (@jsrailton) May 4, 2023
Ilski, Russia:
/2. Video of a drone attack on oil storage facilities in Iliski, Russia. pic.twitter.com/olYBa5vCDU
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 4, 2023
That’s enough serious stuff for tonight.
Before we get to what you really come here for every night – cough, Patron, cough – here’s something musical. Last night as I was typing out the two posts I had music playing on YouTube. My feed is basically a combination of President Zelenskyy’s addresses, the NAFO HIMARS video, Lucha Libre, dog and cat videos, Patron’s cartoons, and music I like. A lot of that is the late 70s through mid 90s music I grew up with, but I occasionally get on a kick for other things. Like when the Tell Me Maw rabbit hole led me to Broken Peach. Last night I was playing a variety of my favorite Blackmore’s Night videos/songs and the algorithm fed me a really nice version of The Gael, which then fed me a cover band named The Iron Cross doing Nightwish’s version of Over the Hills and Far Away. So I searched for that and got the original. Then me being me I decided to pull up the lyrics and then look up the band. Which led me to the original version by Gary Moore with the Chieftains. And no offense to Gary, but Nightwish’s former lead singer – Tarja Turunen a classically taught soprano with a three and a half octave range – makes it sound that much better. But looking up Moore’s version I found that there’s also a Ukrainian cover in Ukrainian. By Ukrainian artist and activist Ruslana!
So the first video below is Nightwish’s official video of their version, then Ruslana’s, then the live version from Nightwish on their final tour before Turunen left the band so you can get an idea of just how great her voice is without any of the normal stuff done to it in the studio. The final one is Moore’s version in case anyone wants to see the original.
I also now have an ear worm…
Nightwish original:
Ruslana!
Nightwish live:
Gary Moore with the Chieftains:
Your daily Patron!
We’ve got two new videos from Patron’s official TikTok. The first features the powerful, haunting art of Olga Wilson, which I’ve featured here before. Here’s her Facebook page. And here’s a virtual exhibit of her work.
@patron__dsns Боляче…😔 Авторка малюнків: 0lga.art
The machine translation of the caption reads:
It hurts… 😔 The author of the drawings 0lga.art
The link he provides is dead. Her Instagram is down. And the other commercial site I have for her is showing the domain name is available. So the links above will have to suffice. Keep good thoughts she’s safe and still painting.
And here’s the second video:
@patron__dsns Відкрили спільний збір на будиночки для тварин разом з @UAnimals та @kartasvitu 😌 Лінк на збір у шапці профілю, долучайтеся!🫶🏻
The machine translation of this caption is:
We have launched a joint fundraiser for animal houses together with @UAnimals and @kartasvitu 😌 The link to the collection is in the header of the profile, join in! 🫶🏻
The link is UAanimals.org!
Open thread!
Dopey-o
Regarding the murder of Jordan Neely, i will quote James Baldwin:
”The worst thing you can say about a man is that he is indifferent to the suffering of his fellow man.”
For 15 minutes, no one spoke out.
Alison Rose
At this point, I don’t really care where the drone came from, I just wish it had actually taken that fuckface out. I know we’ve discussed here many times that whomever would follow would be as bad if not worse, and y’all know I’m a bleeding heart who generally does not celebrate anyone’s demise, but…I COULD MAKE AN EXCEPTION.
The Chieftains, man. That brings me back. My parents played their music all the time when I was growing up, and it was partially listening to them that made me want to play the flute in middle school band.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@Dopey-o: Or did anything!
Alison Rose
@Adam L Silverman: Incredibly disturbing. I could understand some folks (like me, a munchkin) not feeling safe trying to intervene, but there had to be some people there who could have, and yet didn’t. I don’t know how they can sleep at night knowing they essentially let someone be killed right in front of them.
YY_Sima Qian
Some of you might already have read the David Ignatius column in WaPo yesterday:
The U.S. warms to a role for China in resolving the Ukraine war
I consider Ignatius to be not much more than stenographer for the DC “Blob”, so the column is more interesting for the messaging that the Biden Administration is attempting to send. At lease Blinken’s comments do still center Ukrainian agency & lays out baseline conditions that any negotiated settlement must satisfy, conditions that Ukraine might find amenable. Zelenskyy himself has repeatedly voiced desire for the “Straddling” parties to help force Russia to the table and reach a just peace.
However, does this suggest that neither the U.S. nor Ukraine believe the latter can retake all of the Russian occupied territories through force of arms alone? Why is the U.S. in particular sending out such messaging before the Ukrainian offensives this year?
Then there is the question of anyone having enough leverage over Putin to move him. Would Xi like the war in Ukraine to end ASA?, I’d say yes. Can Xi prevent Putin from renewing the invasion after Russia nurses its would for a few years? Possibly. Does Xi (or anyone) have enough leverage to get Putin to withdraw to pre-Feb. 2022 Lines of Actual Control, let alone pre-2014 internationally recognized borders? Probably not. Would Xi (or Modi or Lula or Erdogan) expend the necessary political capital w/ Russia to ensure all occupied territories are returned to Ukraine? Probably not.
There is also the possibility that the intended target of the Administration’s messaging is the Global South countries, emphasizing that the U.S. too is interested in end the war ASAP, but that it needs to end in a just peace. Certainly a more effective tactic in competition w/ China for influence in the Global South, than immediately & casually dismissing China’s position paper (however flimsy & inane it is).
planetjanet
That duet with Patron is absolutely charming.
NutmegAgain
@planetjanet: Totally agree! And the Spirits one is so very sad.
oldster
It’s no wonder, Adam, that you’re attracted to the Chieftains, Gary Moore, and other expressions of Irish music. Everyone knows that the Irish are the lost tribe of the Israelites, which is why David’s harp is their national symbol.
frosty
Nightwish! I got hooked on heavy metal with female singers when I heard the first Evanescence album 20 years ago. Sadly, they split. Amy Lee put together a band that sounded the same and the former Evanescence band found a singer that sounded like Amy. My favorite group reproduced by fission!
Sadly, the second (We Are The Fallen) never went anywhere but I think there’s still a version of Evanescence around. If you like this stuff, you should check out Halestorm, from Red Lion, just up 83 from me.
Adam L Silverman
@oldster: ETA at 10:25 PM EDT: Let’s get this cleaned up, because I rushed it and its all fakakted. One of the better explanations of the Grail is that it was the copy of the Law (Torah) that Jesus copied out for his congregation. Mary Magdelane and Mary mother of Jesus fled to Eire with it coast hopping through the Mediterranean and then up the coast of Europe. According to this explanations they took the scroll to the community descended from the daughter of Zedekiah, King Last of Judea, who married a prince of Tara.
That’s much better.
Adam L Silverman
@frosty: Familiar with all of them.
Jay
It started with the UA delegation taking offense to a Russian delegate pinning on an offensive Victory ribbon, and spiralled out from there,…
Andrya
@Adam L Silverman: That’s a beautiful story, and I’d love it to be true, but wasn’t Zedekiah 6th century BCE? As in, centuries before the time of Jesus?
Jay
Jay
Manyakitty
@Jay: yikes. That sounds like bad news for everyone involved.
Jay
Jay
@Manyakitty:
It’s probably more about the political alignments that are shaping up in Ruzzia.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: That’s definitely a sign that the attempted drone strikes against the Kremlin was not a false flag.
Jay
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Not really. Nav systems are greatly relied on in Ruzzia, so if you want the public to notice and panic, you jam and spoof them after such an event.
Jay
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Not at the expense of damaging the already precarious civilian economy.
Manyakitty
@Jay: unless it’s a circular firing squad, my admittedly un-nuanced comment doesn’t seem far off base. Guess we’ll find out soon enough. 😬
Gin & Tonic
@Jay: That russian delegate made me think of the words of the American philosopher Michael Tyson: “Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”
Adam L Silverman
@Andrya: I just fixed it. I rushed the comment as I’m now half an hour past going to sleep. Give it a read now. It should make both chronological sense and be an accurate recounting of the scholarship.
pat
Did I read that right? Those little drones came from Ukraine?
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
they were more than willing to do that by extending their invasion of Ukraine,……. what’s a few crap GPS signals in Moscovia, or a few tens of thousands of tweets on The Bird App, when you have billions of rubles banked in your pocket?
Who in Ruzzia in power gives two shit’s about “The Economy”?
Jay
@Manyakitty:
Mikhail Mizintsev was in charge of the Ruzzian Military supply chain. That’s a lisence to steal billions of rubles every month.
He was relieved of his post a couple of months ago, for failures.
Reassigned to a training post in Siberia.
Throwing in with Wagner instead, well. “that’s a bold strategy, Carter, let’s see how it plays out,…….”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HVejEB5uVk
Freemark
@frosty: Very familiar with them since I live just 10 miles north of Red Lion. Quite unfortunately in the district of Scott Perry.
Chetan Murthy
@Jay: Another way of thinking about it: the power elite doesn’t actually care about the economy: they only care about their rents. And those rents depend on extractive industries, which aren’t in Moscow: they’re out in the provinces. And of course, Putin cares about the defense industrial base, but again, those don’t need GPS to work in urban areas, I would guess.
As for the actual population? Those serfs, why should the boyars, dukes, and princes care what happens to them, as long as they stay quiet and don’t start a ruckus? And the way to ensure that is to turn the screws on repression.
Chetan Murthy
I’ve been thinking about what Adam wrote about how all those people in that subway car, and nobody stepped up to stop the murder-in-progress for fifteen whole minutes. And I was reminded of how we see so many videos of people in Russia getting arrested by the police, and every time, there are crowds, and nobody steps up to help these people. They take videos instead. I wonder how coarsened we are becoming …..
The Pale Scot
Back in the day my AA friend told me that the “Irish are Black people turned inside out.”
Origuy
Russian men are claiming to be transgender to avoid conscription.
Jay
The Pale Scot
@Adam L Silverman:
Wait, didn’t Hay-Sus travel to Britain, at least that’s what the songs say
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CN11bI1_sZo
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian:
This makes a great deal of sense.
Nothing that happens in the final 2-3 weeks before the offensive matters, or will be remembered, once the action begins. Additionally all outcome forecasts are fraught with uncertainty, so belief that Ukraine can or cannot “retake all of the Russian occupied territories through force of arms alone” is a question that will be moot, one way or another, well before China or anyone else can exert any available diplomatic influence.
What you are suggesting is an operation to shape the diplomatic environment that costs little, has no downsides for the U.S., might have some small payoffs with Global South nations, and might pay large dividends if the Ukrainians exceed expectations (again) and Russia needs to be made to see reason by its remaining influential ally-of-convenience.
That leaves the case in which the offensive is a disappointment of important objectives, such as not at least either clearing the Southern coast or making the Donbas untenable by the Russians (Crimea is a pipe dream in 2023, and only conceivable in 2024 if the Southern coastal areas—including all of the”land bridge”—are cleared this year). Then the Biden administration would have some difficult choices to make, because if the Ukrainians cannot make dramatic progress now, the war is likely to drag on for a long time without decisive results, and some bitter pill-swallowing might be in order. Living with a shooting war of indefinite duration is not any European power’s dream scenario. One can imagine compromises such as Crimea and Luhansk Oblast are lost, but Ukraine acceedes to NATO and to the EU, which would feel like drinking poison to both Ukraine and Russia, but which both might be open to as a better alternative to more war. In which case, China could play a constructive role in forcing Russia to drink its share of the poison.
I’m optimistic that that scenario is least likely, but it has to be taken seriously, because a Forever War in Ukraine is the equivalent of the Prisoner’s Dilemma both-sides-lose scenario, and that includes Ukraine as foremost among the losers. Those are the stakes, and I’m sure all senior Ukrainian military and civilian officials understand them perfectly. They really have to score big when they strike.
Gin & Tonic
@Jay: It is important to note that the Kherson-Lviv train in question departed Kherson 14 minutes late but arrived in Lviv precisely on time.
ETA: It was 14 minutes late departing because they had to decouple the car that was hit by a missile and re-seat the passengers.
Jay
Lums Better Half
Adam, that was me. I found tonight’s post much easier to read. I hope it wasn’t too much trouble.
Jay
Czar Chasm
@Adam L Silverman:
LLLLAAADDEEERRRRRRRR
and
LUCHA LUCHA 619
weasel
@Lums Better Half: I was about to comment about just this. Though I didn’t ask for it, I appreciate it too.
I seem to recall previous posts that were also light mode and wondered why it switched back and forth but chalked it up to whatever was easiest at the time to do (which I fully support!)
Jay
YY_Sima Qian
I too hope Ukraine succeeds in its offensives this year, at least put the Russian position in whatever occupied territory that might remain to be untenable.
However, I don’t see any version of Russia agreeing to Ukraine in the NATO. The EU, sure.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: I want to write “if UA kicks RU off their land, it won’t be up to RU to decide”, but then I remember that if RU is simply sitting on their side of the border chucking artillery into UA land, that’ll be enough to prevent NATO accession. Ugh.
Armadillo
@Adam L Silverman:
It’s good to know where the style of Mr. Pfarrer’s maps comes from. That said, I don’t believe the primary concern is the format of his maps. Or whether he has a military background. He clearly does. Or whether he would have been a great person to lead a SEAL team raid back in the days when he was active.
The concerns I see are about the accuracy of the factual claims he makes:
https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1639184030943039488
and about his reaction to feedback:
https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1622884700661448705?lang=en
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
Maybe, a bunch of NATO members are actively talking about that in regard to Ukraine, Georgia and Moldovia.
Chetan Murthy
@Jay: I’m glad they’re talking. I can’t imagine it’ll go anywhere. It’d break the alliance, I fear. Gotta destroy Russia as a functioning state able to project power, for any of this to reach fruition.
YY_Sima Qian
The Drive just published a battle damage analysis based on commercial satellite images from a Russian strike over the weekend on a Ukrainian facility at Pavlohrad that stored rocket engines. The results were quite devastating, & Ukrainian production of rockets & cruise missiles could be impacted. TBH, I am surprised that Russia waited so long to target such a critical facility.
While Western MSM and OSINT on social media have generally not focused on Ukrainian losses or damages that could impact its war effort, for good reason, better understanding of this aspect is critical if any independent observer is to have a realistic appraisal of the state of the war, & gain insight into the drivers of politics & the geopolitics trends.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
“Pavlohrad that stored rocket engines”
Funny thing is, Pavlohrad stored rocket engines and fuel from decomissioned Soviet Nuclear ICBM’s, that Ukraine gave up as part of the 1994 Agreements. The US funded the disposal/neutralization of the engines/fuels for a decade, then stopped. Ukraine at a much lower level, continued the projectm until the US jumpedback in in the mid 20’s, but then bailed again under Trump, and Ukraine doesn’t really have the money to make much more than a dent in the program.
Other than that, Pavlohrad has nothing to do with any production of missiles or rockets. It’s a waste dump.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: I am sure the Eastern Europeans (ex-Hungary) & the Scandinavians are eager for Ukraine to join NATO, I am not sure the Western & Southern Europeans + Türkiye are so invested. Ukrainian (& Georgian/Moldovan) accession requires unanimity.
The Western European powers that had dominated European geopolitics for centuries have been playing the great power game w/ one version of Russia or another for almost as long, they have every expectation that Russia will remain a geopolitical power to be contended w/ far into the future.
Furthermore, I can’t imagine Putin or any potential successor (even someone like Navalny) agreeing to terms that included Ukraine in NATO. I can’t imagine China (or India/Brazil) being willing to guarantee a negotiated settlement that included Ukraine in NATO. China has wholeheartedly signed on to the Russian framing that NATO expansions has one of the deeper root causes of the war, & that framing has a lot of purchase in the Global South (including India & Brazil), even though Russian conduct in Ukraine has already shown the “justification” to be hollow & completely disingenuous. I could see Ukraine signing bilateral defense treaties w/ individual countries in the NATO.
The calculus could change if the Russian Federation itself dissolved, & there is no remnant powerful enough to pose a threat to the rest of Europe. However, in that case, what would be NATO’s raison d’être then, at least in its current form? The European project may then shift to incorporating some of the newly born successor states (such as Belarus), or the focus may shift to internal consolidation, confronting the illiberal trend among some current EU member states that could tear the Union apart.
Anyway, all of these hypotheticals are currently moot. Advantage on the battlefield begets advantage at the negotiation table. A lot rides on the success of the Ukrainian offensives this year, & perhaps next year & the year after, too. Lest we forget, the two sides in the Korean War battled for 2 terrible years along the 38th Parallel to merely gain tactical advantages at the negotiation table, & the Lines of Actual Control did not shift all that much for all of the blood spilled.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: According to the linked article the Pavlohrad Chemical Plant was involved in the development of guided artillery rockets & the Neptune anti-ship cruise missile, presumably the rocket fuel. Not clear if the plant was damaged from the strike or the secondary explosions.
oldster
@Adam L Silverman:
“Tara” which was named in honor of the Torah, obviously.
planetjanet
Although this may be a dead thread, I have to share this morning’s article from the Washington Post. Jay noted in the comments above that Prigozhin is complaining about the lack of ammunition. This morning’s reporting says Wagner is pulling out of Bakhmut for this very reason. I can’t help but do my happy dance while saying “Bakhmut holds” over and over. Yes, I know there are plenty of caveats to keep in mind. Ukraine holds very little of Bakhmut. Russian forces are still there. But I will still express my joy. For today.
https://wapo.st/3VAtnu8
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
https://www.globalsecurity.org/space/world/ukraine/pavlohradchem-war.htm
Neptune missiles are made by Motor Sich in Zaphorazia.
BTW, only NATO and Ukraine have a say in Ukraine joining NATO. Russia and China don’t have a say, at all.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: They will potentially have a say in any negotiated peace settlement, & it will be up to Ukraine whether to compromise on those terms. Ukraine can avoid Russia having any say by forcing out the invaders from all of its territory through the force or arms alone, but that is not the signal from Zelenskyy & the Biden Administration recently.
Anyway, I think the reality is not all NATO countries are equally invested in Ukraine joining NATO, far more than any dissension with Sweden & Finland. It does take unanimity.
Chris Johnson
I really don’t think a real Ukraine attack would use a Mythbusters, Hollywood-style gasoline-over-a-firecracker explosion that is nothing but a big showy fluff of flame. That is literally Hollywood explosion technology, and for that reason it seems to be a false flag complete with guys climbing up to be ready to put out any accidental fires started by the intentionally harmless ‘attack’.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
NATO, should it choose to, can decide that the clause about “ongoing territorial disputes”, is null and void. That would open the gates for Ukraine, Georgia, Moldovia and Kosovo.
Ideally, they would install verbage about “existing lines on the ground”, and amend Article 5 so that recapturing territory does not count, but defending against attacks from enemy occupied territory does.
Given Russian actions since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the deliberate breaking of Treaties and Security guarantees, it is a given that when Ukraine recovers all of it’s territory to the 1991 borders, “the war” won’t end.
There will still be hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian men, women and children kidnapped by Ruzzia and held in Gulags. There will be continual terrorist attacks on Ukraine by Ruzzian arty, missiles, ships and aircraft.
Even if the silovi overthrow Khuylos regime, that won’t remove sanctions, return seized assets turned over to Ukraine as reparations, or take their names off the Hague guest lists, even if they do sign a worthless “peace treaty” with Ukraine.
Eventually, it will sink in at the Atlantic Council and NATO, that NAFO has it right.
Chetan Murthy
@Jay: I don’t think Russia will have a “say” as in a literal veto. But they get an effective veto, by continuing to prosecute the war. That’s all it takes, to prevent Ukraine from acceding to NATO, right? B/c NATO doesn’t bring countries into the alliance that are fighting hot wars, yes? That’s part of their rules, right?
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
technically, it’s “unresolved border issues with a neighboring country”. It’s in the Charter.
Funny thing is, it’s been ignored in the past when both Countries are engaged in “good faith” negotiations over the dispute or have agreed to submit to UNGA arbitration.
The Charter however, can be changed, if the Member Nations decide to do so.
At some point in time, NATO and the NATO Member Nations are going to have to realize that Ruzzia, no matter who is in charge, has designs on restoring it’s former Empire, no matter the cost, and that treaties with Ruzzia arn’t worth the paper they are written on, because Ruzzia isn’t going to stop, other than to try to rebuild and attack again.