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You are here: Home / Archives for Foreign Affairs / United Kingdom

United Kingdom

War for Ukraine Day 1,458: Russian Strategic Aviation Is Up, Missiles Strikes Are Likely Imminent

by Adam L Silverman|  February 21, 202610:35 pm| 36 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, United Kingdom, War, War in Ukraine

A painting by the Ukrainain artist NEIVANMADE. The upper 1/2 is grey and there are black Shahed drones on it aimed towards the bottom of the painting. The bottom half of the painting has a blood red background and in the center of the bottom is a house, to it's left is a swing set, and to its right is a car. They are charcoal grey on the blood red background background. The drones are targeting the house, swing set, and car. Above the house and below the drones are the words "Russia Kills To Erase Free People".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Just a quick Rosie update. She had her regular monthly post-chemo appointment with her regular vet today. Her regular vet is very pleased with how quickly she seems to be recovering from the stroke. While she’s still got a deficit on her left rear leg, she’s walking very well, she’s eating, she can hold her squats. Right now we’re just doing walks around the block a few times a day. Next week we’ll start going a bit longer. I’d say she’s about 70% of where she was before the stroke. Her vet says this is a very good sign. So that’s the good news. Thank you all for the good wishes, thoughts, and prayers.

Almost all of eastern and central Ukraine, about 2/3rds of the country, is under air raid alert as of 4:00 AM local time/9:oo PM EST. I expect the rest of Ukraine will be under air raid alert soon enough given that Russian Tu-95s are up over Russia and inbound towards the part of western Russia where they launch their missiles.

Russian Tu-95MS bombers takeoff reported by monitoring channels.

​missiles are expected to reach our airspace by morning.

Once again, we are in for a dreadful night of waiting for missiles while being haunted by drones. Once again, we play this deadly lottery. All of this could have been prevented

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 7:16 PM

❗️4 Tu-95MS from the Olenya airfield are currently in the air, flying towards the launch lines

We expect the planes to arrive in the launch zone approximately around 04:50-06:00.

— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 7:13 PM

It is now 5:00 AM local time in Ukraine/10:00 PM EST and all of Ukraine is now under air raid alert.

Air raid alert in entire Ukraine. Russia attacks with drones and different kinds of missiles.

4:50 AM

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 9:51 PM

Two ballistic missiles are being tracked on descent on targets in Kyiv as of 5:10 AM local time/10:10 PM EST.

Russian cruise missiles are reported as overflying Sumy Oblast from east to west, a cruise missile is reported over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and a drone swarm over Kyiv at 5:30 AM local time in Ukraine/10:30 PM EST.

If the US, specifically the Biden administration, had both allowed the Ukrainian Air Force to begin training on F-16s earlier, as well as authorized the provision of more F-16s and not limited the Ukrainians to not using them outside of Ukraine, right now the Ukrainians would be sending a a squadron to intercept the Tu-95s before they could launch their missiles.

OTD in 2000 Ukraine sent its final strategic bomber to Russia.

Having given up strategic arms and so having no long-range ability to threaten Russia, Ukraine was subsequently rewarded with invasion and supplied with limitless grave concern.

— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 6:12 AM

The countries who gave their assurance that Russia would not invade Ukraine, are now on Russia’s side.

— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 6:12 AM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

We Continue Working Every Day Specifically So That the Next Round of Negotiations Can Deliver Results for Ukraine, for Peace – Address by the President

21 February 2026 – 17:53

I wish you good health, fellow Ukrainians!

There are several important points worth mentioning today. First, we continue working every day specifically so that the next round of negotiations can deliver results for Ukraine, deliver results for peace. Ukraine will definitely do whatever is needed for this and will by no means stand in the way of peace.

Last time in Geneva, the American side clearly saw that it is precisely the Russians who are the reason no truly meaningful results had yet been achieved. And the next meeting must not be a wasted opportunity – it can be done.

We discussed today with Rustem Umerov some aspects of negotiation preparations. And I am grateful to everyone who is genuinely ready to help and who supports us – supports our state. My meetings with European partners are also already scheduled for next week. We will coordinate in detail so that Europe is involved in all processes and grows only stronger. I also instructed Rustem to work more closely with our friends in the Middle East and Türkiye, so that they also feel invested and can help more.

I also spoke today with Mark Rutte, Secretary General of NATO. In many respects, we share common views on the diplomatic process and on the situation in Europe. Thank you, Mark.

The second important point. I want to commend the efforts of the Security Service of Ukraine, the National Police, and the Office of the Prosecutor General – they neutralized Russian mercenaries preparing assassination attempts against our citizens. These were rather high-profile names, and preventing such crimes is a substantial result.

There were reports from Oleksandr Poklad. And this is yet another front in the ongoing protection of Ukraine’s security, the safety of Ukrainians, and the constant defense of the lives of our people – the way our Ukrainian special services, our law enforcement, and our intelligence neutralize Russian criminal activity against Ukrainians. They were preparing attacks against Ukrainian military personnel, Ukrainian intelligence officers, and Ukrainian media workers. It is important that all our Ukrainian special services and law enforcement continue to protect Ukrainian citizens in exactly this coordinated way.

And one more thing. Today, Ukraine has introduced new sanctions against the captains of vessels involved in transporting Russian oil – 225 captains. And we will continue to consistently impose sanctions and make them global against everyone who helps Russia earn money for war.

Many around the world support us, and often it is Ukrainian proposals that form the basis of partners’ sanctions. We very much count, in particular, that the next sanctions package of the European Union takes into account what is needed for real pressure on Russia over this war – for truly restricting Russia’s ability to wage it.

This includes, among other things, a ban on maritime services for vessels used by Russia. Europe should come to this. And this is something that could become a significant incentive from Europe for Russia to finally move from war to diplomacy – to real diplomacy. The war must be brought to an end.

I want to thank everyone who helps us! Thank you!

Glory to Ukraine!

First Lady Zelenska participated in an international forum on the recovery of Ukraine that was held in Vilnius today.

While Ukraine Is Moving Toward Membership in the European Union, It Is Already Part of the Free World in Values – as It Stands for Freedom and Dignity – Olena Zelenska

21 February 2026 – 17:22

First Lady of Ukraine Olena Zelenska took part online in the International Forum “Recovery of Ukraine: New Opportunities and Development Scenarios,” held in Vilnius.

The event focused on steps for Ukraine’s reconstruction, including the development of international cooperation tools, the restoration of critical infrastructure, and the energy sector. A dedicated panel addressed Ukraine’s path toward European Union membership.

“When the question is sometimes asked, ‘Why rebuild if a missile could strike again?’ – the answer is simple. If we postpone life for later, we accept the logic of destruction. But Ukraine does not live by an imposed scenario. In the very first days of the invasion, we – as a society and as a state – made a difficult and principled decision: while defending ourselves, not to stop development. That is why we are not only rebuilding housing, hospitals, schools, and universities, and restoring electricity supply – we are trying to make them better than they were before,” the First Lady emphasized.

The forum was traditionally held at the Ukrainian Center – a flagship cultural and educational space opened in Vilnius in 2022 under the patronage of the First Ladies of Ukraine and Lithuania. The Center serves as a venue for international events dedicated to Ukraine and its support.

“I am sincerely grateful to the First Lady of Lithuania, Diana Nausėdienė, Vytautas Magnus University, the team of the Ukrainian Center, volunteers, and all partners for developing this Center with such dedication. For me, this is the best illustration of European values in action. Values we fully share. Because while Ukraine is moving toward membership in the European Union, it is already part of the free world in values – as it stands for freedom and dignity. Therefore, the recovery of Ukraine is at the same time the recovery of a safe Europe,” Olena Zelenska noted.

During the forum, a Memorandum of Cooperation was also signed between the University of Silesia (Poland) and Vytautas Magnus University (Lithuania). The agreement aims to strengthen and provide long-term support for the activities of Ukrainian centers hosted at both universities.

Georgia:

A large crowd at the weekly march in Tbilisi.

Day 451 of daily, uninterrupted protests in Georgia. 🇬🇪

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 11:31 AM

#GeorgiaProtests
Day 451

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 2:29 PM

For 451 consecutive days, Georgians have taken to the streets in 8+ cities, resisting an illegitimate, pro-Russian regime. This is Tbilisi today.

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 11:44 AM

Not too bad for Day 451 consecutive #GeorgiaProtests, is it?

1. Further regime isolation, a Russian proxy and sanctions evasion enabler, pro-Iran, pro-CCP;
2. Targeted sanctions;
3. Aid to CSOs & media;
4. Int’l investigation into chemicals use against protesters;

📷 @rusudandjakeli.bsky.social

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 12:24 PM

Apparently, food provided to the army and the police in Georgia was so toxic that toxicity expertise wasn’t conducted out of concerns that it could harm the expert…

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 7:19 AM

The Czech Republic:

In Prague thousands of Czechs gathered in the city center for the “Together for Ukraine” rally to mark the fourth anniversary of russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 12:40 PM

From the stage, Czech President Petr Pavel addressed the crowd, stressing that despite political differences, the Czech Republic must help Ukraine.

Czechs 🇨🇿❤️🇺🇦

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 12:40 PM

Hungary and Slovakia:

Fico and Orbán are using the damaged Friendship pipeline to blackmail Ukraine, ignoring the obvious: the energy supply would be secure if russia hadn’t invaded. Buying russian oil now literally funds the murder of Ukrainians.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 11:28 AM

This reeks of the bothsidism, rhetoric the Trump administration loves, and the timing – just after Rubio’s visit – is telling.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 11:28 AM

“IF THE UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT DOES NOT RESUME OIL SUPPLIES TO SLOVAKIA ON MONDAY, ON THAT SAME DAY I WILL ASK THE RELEVANT SLOVAK COMPANIES TO STOP EMERGENCY ELECTRICITY SUPPLIES TO UKRAINE.”- Slovakia PM Fico

literally, go fuck yourself.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 7:22 AM

Orban likened EU attempts to defeat Russia and claim reparations to Napoleon and Hitler’s failures. Kallas will be next to try he suggested.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 1:06 PM

The US:

Let me get this straight:

🔹Trump tells the EU to build up its own defences
🔹Trump threatens the EU repeatedly and signals unreliability as a defence partner
🔹Now Trump is upset the EU wants a buy-EU defence policy to build local manufacturing?

What did you expect to happen??

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 2:09 AM

He didn’t expect anything to happen other than the EU and its member states agreeing to give him whatever he demanded. He has no idea how defense management works, how a defense industrial base is run, or even how an alliance works. All he cares about is trying to force the EU, its member states, and the other NATO members to capitulate to whatever bonkers demand he makes on any given day.

Considering everything the Trump administration is doing, this is not surprising. but still heartbreaking.

A slow return to business as usual with genocidal invaders, even as they continue murdering Ukrainians and destroying our country.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 9:13 AM

From The New York Times:

Russia’s return to the global sporting stage after years of banishment because of cheating schemes and its invasion of Ukraine has found an influential source of support from the Trump administration.

The news that a Russian team will compete at next month’s Paralympics was greeted with dismay across Europe. But Paulo Zampolli, President Trump’s special representative for global partnerships, endorsed Russian participation, saying in a text message: “I think sport is for all.”

His comments were at odds with those of European leaders and those from Ukraine, which said its team would boycott the competition’s opening ceremony. The Paralympics’ host nation, Italy, expressed “its absolute opposition to the International Paralympic Committee’s decision.”

Even as Russia was barred from fielding a team at the Winter Games in Italy, which conclude on Sunday, momentum has been building for ending the country’s pariah status in global sports.

The president of FIFA, the governing body for world soccer, said this month that he would like to see Russia return to the sport’s international competitions. And the president of the International Olympic Committee, Kirsty Coventry, said that sports must be a “neutral ground” and a “place where every athlete can compete freely.”

Her words sounded much like those of Mr. Zampolli, who met with Russia’s sports minister in January at talks hosted by the Olympic Council of Asia, an umbrella body for the region. Mr. Zampolli also attended the opening ceremony of the Olympics with Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

The U.S. government was not among the 35 signatories to a statement condemning the Paralympic governing body’s initial decision to lift its suspension of Russia in September.

The governing body, known as the I.P.C., said this week that six Russian athletes and four from Belarus — which was barred over its support for Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — had been awarded the equivalent of wild card entries for skiing and snowboarding events next month. It would be Russia’s first participation in the Paralympics since it hosted the event in Sochi in 2014.

The I.O.C. formally banned Russia over its move in 2023 to absorb the official sports institutions in several occupied regions of Ukraine. Russian officials have argued in recent months that they have instituted administrative changes that mean the ban should be lifted.

Russia’s sports minister, Mikhail V. Degtyarev, has said that he expects the I.O.C.’s executive board to decide by May whether to lift the ban. That leaves open the possibility that a Russian team could participate in the 2028 Summer Games in Los Angeles.

Even if the I.O.C. reinstates Russia, federations governing individual sports at the Games must agree to lift their own bans. A few have done so, including those for judo and taekwondo.

Some senior I.O.C. officials have backed Russian efforts at reinstatement.

More at the link,

Once again, the International Olympic Committee is a global criminal organization masquerading as an international non-governmental organization.

🇺🇸🇺🇦 A large-scale rally was held in Washington to mark the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine.

Hundreds of people gathered near the Russian embassy. The rally was part of solidarity events taking place in various countries around the world.

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— Savchenko Volodymyr (@savchenkoua.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 7:06 PM

Back to Ukraine.

OTD in 2014 we sent masked soldiers to occupy Crimea

2014 “they’re not Russian soldiers but local militias. Russia has nothing to do with them”
2015 “They were not Russian soldiers but we “stood behind them””
Later 2015 “They were Russian soldiers”

But we are not lying this time

— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 11:38 AM

You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor. And you have war.

— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 11:38 AM

Soon enough you’ll be connecting all these dots to the forthcoming general mobilisation that you don’t think I’ll risk doing.

But losing this war is a far bigger risk.

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— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 7:41 AM

If you haven’t read this long-read yet, you absolutely should. It’s worth every minute.

www.theguardian.com/world/ng-int…

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 3:10 PM

From The Guardian: (emphasis mine)

William Burns had travelled halfway around the world to speak with Vladimir Putin, but in the end he had to make do with a phone call. It was November 2021, and US intelligence agencies had been picking up signals in the preceding weeks that Putin could be planning to invade Ukraine. President Joe Biden dispatched Burns, his CIA director, to warn Putin that the economic and political consequences if he did so would be disastrous.

Fifteen years earlier, when Burns was US ambassador in Moscow, Putin had been relatively accessible. The intervening years had concentrated the Russian leader’s power and deepened his paranoia. Since Covid had emerged, few had been granted face time. Putin was squirrelled away at his lavish residence on the Black Sea coast, Burns and his delegation learned, and only phone contact would be possible.

A secure line was ready in an office at the presidential administration building on Moscow’s Old Square, and Putin’s familiar voice came through the receiver. Burns laid out the US belief that Russia was readying an invasion of Ukraine, but Putin ignored him and ploughed on with his own talking points. His intelligence agencies had informed him, he said, that there was an American warship lurking over the Black Sea horizon, equipped with missiles that could reach his location in just a few minutes. It was evidence, he suggested, of Russia’s strategic vulnerability in a unipolar world dominated by the US.

The conversation, as well as three combative face-to-face discussions with Putin’s top security officials, seemed extremely ominous to Burns. He left Moscow far more concerned about the prospect of war than he had been before the trip, and he relayed his gut feeling to the president.

“Biden often asked yes/no questions, and when I got back, he asked if I thought Putin was going to do it,” Burns recalled. “I said: ‘Yes’.”

Three and a half months later, Putin ordered his army into Ukraine, in the most dramatic breach of the European security order since the second world war. The story of the intelligence backdrop to those months – how Washington and London garnered such detailed and accurate insight into the Kremlin’s war plans, and why the intelligence services of other countries did not believe them – has never before been told in full.

This account is based on interviews conducted over the past year with more than 100 intelligence, military, diplomatic and political insiders in Ukraine, Russia, the US and Europe. Many spoke without attribution to discuss events that are still sensitive or classified; those quoted by name are referred to by their job titles at that time.

It is the story of a spectacular intelligence success, but also one of several intelligence failures. First, for the CIA and MI6, who got the invasion scenario right but failed to accurately predict the outcome, assuming a swift Russian takeover was a foregone conclusion. More profoundly, for European services, who refused to believe a full-scale war in Europe was possible in the 21st century. They remembered the dubious intelligence case presented to justify the invasion of Iraq two decades previously, and were wary of trusting the Americans on what seemed like a fantastical prediction.

Most crucially, the Ukrainian government was thoroughly unprepared for the oncoming assault, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spending months dismissing increasingly urgent American warnings as scaremongering, and quashing last-minute concerns among his own military and intelligence elite, who eventually made limited attempts to prepare behind his back.

“In the final weeks, the intelligence leaders were starting to get it, the mood was different. But the political leadership just refused to accept it until right at the end,” said one US intelligence official.

Four years on, there are many lessons to be drawn from these events about how intelligence is collected and analysed. Perhaps the most pertinent, as the world appears more unpredictable than at any time in recent history, is that it is dangerous to dismiss a scenario because it seems to fit outside the realm of what is rational or possible.

“I felt the evidence we presented to them was overwhelming. It’s not like we held back something that, if only they had seen it, would have made all the difference,” said Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, on why European allies did not believe the Americans. “They were just seized with the conviction that this simply made no sense.”

The CIA discovered an awful lot about Putin’s plans to invade Ukraine, but one thing they never worked out for sure is when he first made up his mind to go all-in. Sifting through the evidence later, like detectives at a crime scene, some of the agency’s analysts pinpointed the first half of 2020 as the most likely moment.

During those months, Putin passed constitutional amendments to ensure he could stay in power beyond 2024. Then, locked away in isolation for months during Covid, he devoured books on Russian history and pondered his own place in it. Over the summer, the violent crushing of a protest movement in neighbouring Belarus left President Alexander Lukashenko weaker and more reliant on the Kremlin than ever. It opened up the possibility of forcing Lukashenko to allow the use of Belarusian territory as an invasion launchpad.

Around the same time, a team of FSB poisoners slipped novichok nerve agent into the underpants of Alexei Navalny, the one opposition politician with the potential to command mass public support, sending him into a coma. Back then, these all seemed like discrete events. Later, they started to look like Putin getting his ducks in a row before implementing the big Ukraine gambit he felt would cement his role in history as a great Russian leader.

Hints of that plan first came into focus in the spring of 2021, when Russian troops began building up along Ukraine’s borders and in occupied Crimea, supposedly for training exercises. The US received intelligence suggesting Putin could use an annual set-piece speech, due on 21 April, to lay out the case for military action in Ukraine. When Biden was briefed on the intelligence, a week before the speech, he was so alarmed he called Putin directly. “He raised concerns about the buildup and called for a de-escalation, as well as proposing a summit in the coming months, which we knew would be of interest to Putin,” said Avril Haines, Biden’s director of national intelligence.

When Putin gave the speech, it was much less bellicose than expected, and a day later the Russian army announced its military exercises at the border were over. It seemed the summit offer had successfully defused the threat, and when the two leaders met in Geneva in June, Putin hardly mentioned Ukraine.

It was only in hindsight that it became clear why: he had already decided on a non-diplomatic solution.

Four weeks after the Geneva summit, Putin published a lengthy, rambling essay about the history of Ukraine, in which he went back as far as the ninth century to make the argument that “true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia”.

The screed raised eyebrows, but attention in London and Washington was soon diverted by the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. In September, Russian troops began another buildup along Ukraine’s borders; within a month it had reached a mass that was hard to ignore. Washington collected new intelligence about Russian plans, more detailed and much more shocking than in spring. Back then, the assumption had been that Russia could attempt a formal annexation of the Donbas region, or in a maximalist scenario, might try to hack a land corridor through southern Ukraine, linking Donbas to occupied Crimea. Now, it looked as if Putin could be planning something bigger. He wanted Kyiv.

Many in the US political elite were highly sceptical, but the intelligence analysts were worked up over what they were seeing. “There was enough information coming in that made it clear this was no longer a remote possibility,” said Haines. When Burns came back from Moscow, the alarm bells rang even louder. Whether or not the intelligence was right, Biden said, it was time to start planning.

In mid-November, he dispatched Haines to Brussels. There, at the annual meeting of Nato-member intelligence heads, she presented the US belief that there was now a real chance of a massive Russian invasion of Ukraine. Richard Moore, the head of Britain’s MI6, backed her up. As part of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance, Britain had seen most of what the US had collected, and also had its own intelligence channels that pointed towards the possibility of an invasion. The primary response in the room, however, was scepticism. Some dismissed the idea of an invasion out of hand. Others expressed a fear that if Nato adopted a strong posture in response, it could prove counterproductive, provoking exactly the scenario the US claimed to be concerned about.

Managing that perception would be in the back of US and British minds over the next months. “We had to make sure we weren’t going to do anything that gave them an excuse to invade,” said Chris Ordway, a senior official working on the region at Britain’s Ministry of Defence. At the same time, London and Washington believed Russia needed only two more months to be ready for an invasion, and they wanted to raise the alarm.

Biden ordered his team to share as much intelligence with allies as possible, to help them understand why Washington was so worried. He also suggested a declassification push to get some of the information into the public domain. This had to be done carefully, to avoid exposing how Washington had obtained the evidence. “These are sources and methods that we put our blood and sweat and tears into obtaining, and they can put people’s lives at risk if lost,” said Haines.

A system was implemented whereby officials from different intelligence agencies would have “an opportunity to weigh in on anything before it went out the door”, she said, to make sure nothing slipped through that could give away a source. Over the next weeks, the US downgraded more sensitive intelligence than at any time in recent memory for allies and often for the general public, too. “We were getting classified briefings from the Americans, and then a few hours later you’d read the exact same information in the New York Times,” said one European official.

At the end of October, the CIA and MI6 sent memos to Kyiv outlining their alarming new intelligence assessments. The next week, after Burns visited Moscow, two US officials on the trip peeled away from the delegation and flew to Kyiv where they briefed two senior Ukrainian officials on the US fears and the CIA director’s conversations in Moscow. “We basically said: ‘We will follow up. You’ll see the intel. This is not a normal warning, this is really serious. Trust us,’” said Eric Green, one of the US officials. The Ukrainians looked sceptical.

In mid-November, the British defence secretary, Ben Wallace, visited Kyiv and told Zelenskyy London believed a Russian invasion was now a matter of “when”, not “if”. He urged Zelenskyy to start preparing the country for war. “You can’t fatten up a pig on market day,” Wallace told the Ukrainian president, according to a source briefed on the meeting. Zelenskyy appeared to be in passive listening mode.

Zelenskyy had been elected in 2019 on a platform of pursuing peace negotiations to end the conflict Russia had launched in eastern Ukraine in 2014. He no longer believed he could do a deal with Putin, but he feared that public talk of an even bigger war would prompt panic in Ukraine. This could lead to an economic and political crisis, collapsing the country without Russia needing to send a single soldier across the border. This, he suspected, was Putin’s plan all along. He grew increasingly irritated at the Americans and British, who alongside the private warnings were starting to talk about the invasion threat in public. In November, he dispatched one of his most senior security officials on a top-secret mission to a European capital to deliver a message to political leaders via intelligence channels: the war scare is fake, and is all about the US trying to leverage pressure on Russia.

Few in Ukraine believed a full-scale invasion was likely, but the country’s intelligence agencies had been picking up worrying signs of increasing Russian activity. Ivan Bakanov, the head of the SBU domestic agency, recalled that while Russian spy services had traditionally focused on trying to recruit high-level Ukrainian sources, in the year prior to the invasion “they were going after everyone”, including chauffeurs and low-level functionaries. Often, these pitches were “false flag”: the Russian recruiters would pretend to be from one of Ukraine’s own intelligence agencies.

The SBU also tracked clandestine meetings between officers from Russia’s FSB and Ukrainian civil servants or politicians. These meetings often took place in luxury hotels in Turkey or Egypt, where the Ukrainians travelled under the guise of tourism. Russia hoped these people, motivated variously by ideology, ego or money, would act as a fifth column inside Ukraine when the time came.

“Before I came to the SBU, I also thought we could do a deal with the Russians,” said Bakanov, who was an old business partner of Zelenskyy’s and had no intelligence background when appointed in 2019. “But when you see every day how they are trying to kill and recruit people, you understand that they have a different plan, that they are saying one thing and doing another.”

Still, the prevailing mood in Kyiv was that the US warnings were overegged. Ukraine had been fighting Russian proxy forces in the Donbas for eight years, but the idea of a full-fledged war – with missile attacks, tank columns and a march on Kyiv – seemed unimaginable.

A European intelligence official said this line of thought remained fairly constant in briefings from Ukrainian counterparts in the months leading up to the invasion. “The message was: ‘Nothing is going to happen, it’s all sabre-rattling,’” said the official. “They thought the absolute maximum possible was a skirmish in the Donbas.”

Later, when it turned out that the US and Britain had it right all along, many wondered what it was that had allowed them to be so sure. Was there a mole in Putin’s inner circle, passing on the war plans to their CIA or MI6 handlers?

“Often, it’s presented as ‘we found the plans’ but it definitely was not that simple,” said Haines. The most obvious indicator was partly visible on commercial satellite imagery: tens of thousands of Russian troops moving into positions close to the border with Ukraine.<

“These troop movements were unexpected and you had to work really quite hard to come up with explanations for why you’d do this, other than that you want to use them,” said a senior official at DI, the British military intelligence service.

Much more at the link.

I want to highlight this part:

“I felt the evidence we presented to them was overwhelming. It’s not like we held back something that, if only they had seen it, would have made all the difference,” said Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, on why European allies did not believe the Americans. “They were just seized with the conviction that this simply made no sense.”

Part of the job of being a senior advisor is to make sure the senior official that one is advising have the context necessary to understand why things do make sense even if they seem to make no sense. As I’ve written here before, what Putin did, has been, and is continuing to do makes no sense except within his own context. A context that is an ahistorical heavily mythologized understanding of Russia and its history. A heavily mythologized ahistorical history that he has helped to contribute to. Within this context, what Weber called bounded rationality, what Putin is doing makes sense. The key is to ensure that the senior leaders and decision makers understand this context.

Video of the launch of FP-5 “Flamingo” cruise missiles at the Votkinsk plant last night

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 4:15 PM

Mi-8 helicopter crew intercepts Russian Shahed kamikaze drones during a combat mission.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 6:32 AM

Sumy Oblast:

Russia struck a car in Sumy Oblast, killing four civilians — two brothers, one of them 17, and a married couple.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 3:50 PM

Tragedy in Sumy region: A Russian drone struck an ambulance, killing four people‼️

Among the victims were two brothers—one just 17 years old—and a married couple. The woman was a medic.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 3:53 PM

The brothers were being taken to the hospital after being injured by an explosive device. On the way, Russian forces deliberately targeted the emergency vehicle with a strike drone.

Only the driver survived; he is now in the hospital.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 3:53 PM

Kharkiv:

Russian drones over Kharkiv right now ‼️ air defense is active ‼️

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 3:46 PM

Odesa:

Russia is terrorizing Odesa, striking it almost daily. Historical buildings, cafés, homes, schools, and more are being destroyed.

This is one of the city’s schools after last night’s russian attack:

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 1:27 PM

Lviv:

🇺🇦🙏 Today at 00:30, a report of a break-in at a store on Danylyshyna Street, 20 in Lviv, was received by the number “102”.

After arrival of patrol police crew at the scene, an explosion was heard. Upon the arrival of the second crew, another explosion occurred.

23-year-old policewoman was killed.

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— The Ukrainian Review (@theukrainianreview.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 7:47 PM

❗️Screams of people and a large number of special services at the scene of the explosion in Lviv

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 6:11 PM

🙏🙏🙏

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 6:11 PM

🙏🇺🇦Video of second explosion in Lviv shows injured police officers

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 6:39 PM

Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:

💥 An oil depot in Luhansk has been hit once again. Locals report a major fire.

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 7:49 PM

Russian occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

💡❌ The power went out in the temporarily occupied territories in Zaporizhia region, something is burning also!

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 7:11 PM

Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

🇺🇦 Defense Forces have restored control over more than 300 sq. km in the South, – Voloshyn

A Defense Forces of Ukraine operation is underway in Hulyaipole and neighboring areas, during which Ukrainian units are conducting counterattacks and assault operations.

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 8:29 AM

Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

During a flight over the Zaporizhzhia region, a pair of FP-2 guided strike drones detected the launch site of Russian missiles. Maintaining visual contact, the drone team executed a precision strike, successfully destroying the Tornado-S (BM-30 Smerch) launcher while it was still at the launch site.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 3:24 AM

Russian occupied Mariupol:

Mariupol, explosions in the port 👀💥

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 5:37 PM

Russian occupied Crimea:

Photos of the Russian Be-12 amphibious aircraft as well as two Project 22460 Okhotnik border patrol vessels in the cameras of Ukrainian guided strike drones published by the Ukrainian General Staff.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM

Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces destroyed a Tornado-S MLRS and struck an oil depot in Hvardiyske near Simferopol in occupied Crimea.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 9:37 AM

The Kharkiv-Russian border:

Hart brigade drone operators found a hangar full of Russian equipment and ammo on the Kharkiv border. They punched a hole through a window with one drone then sent another inside to detonate it.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 6:03 AM

The Autonomous Republic of Mordvinia, Russia:

In Russia’s Saransk, after a UAV strike, the ‘Electrorectifier’ plant, part of the military-industrial complex, is ablaze. 👀

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 8:10 AM

Volgograd Oblast, Russia:

The February 12 overnight Flamingo missile strike on the GRAU arsenal in Kotluban destroyed a 3,600 sq m bunker CyberBoroshno analysts report.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 9:01 AM

Tver Oblast, Russia:

Satellite imagery reveals damage from the February 7 strike on the Redkino chemical plant in Tver region. The hit landed near a facility making lubricants for Russia’s Defense Ministry Radio Svoboda reports.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 7:30 AM

Samara Oblast, Russia:

NASA satellite signatures confirm a massive fire at the Neftegorsk gas processing plant in Russia’s Samara region.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 4:27 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today.

Here is some adjacent material.

Update on “Ash” the cat rescued in freezing Kupiansk, eastern Ukraine: she was in bad shape, but after a blood transfusion & antibiotics, her fever is down and she’s doing much better. 🙏 Look at how sweet she is to the doctor!

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— Nate Mook (@natemook.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 10:44 AM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,458: Russian Strategic Aviation Is Up, Missiles Strikes Are Likely ImminentPost + Comments (36)

Guest Post – Tony Jay: Note From Brexitania: Early Winter of 2026 Edition

by WaterGirl|  February 4, 20262:30 pm| 152 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Guest Posts, Open Threads, United Kingdom

It’s our lucky day – Tony Jay has a little something to say about what’s going on in the UK.

Looking for a short pictorial summary?

Guest Post – Tony Jay: Note From Brexitania: Early Winter of 2026 Edition

A LETTER FROM BREXITANIA

Our State Is One of Complicity

by Tony Jay

 Once upon a time, in what feels like the long, long ago, I had a job that wasn’t so much a ‘job’ as a place to be with a laptop and a chair. For various reasons that would bore the tits off a gravid sow I was paid just to grace the location with my presence five days a week, which explains the series of very long, very self-indulgent rants I was able to produce for your good selves detailing my personal perspective on the accelerating awfulness of Brexit Britain and the political scum-crust responsible for imposing this thunderclap of fuckery upon us. Those days are gone now, thankfully, and I have a different job that keeps me busier than a fluffer at a Bonnie Blue book signing, so finding the time to spew satisfying amounts of profanity about the UK’s condition is harder than landing a knob joke at a Bobbitt family reunion. But it’s my day off, it’s a whole new year, and the world around us is fresh and supple with endless possibilities, so before The Stench of Pennsylvania Avenue fucks things up for everyone (too late!) I’m going to see how much whine I can decant in the space of two hours. Attendance isn’t compulsory, but like tipping, it’s expected of the better class of person.

Let’s start easy, with a little light racism!

 Silken Folds Of Purest White

Slashed With Red, Cruel Delight

Flags Half Masted, Ugly Sight

Such Brazen Challenge, From The Right  

The Frog says the water is just fine

 For pretty much my entire life, the British Right’s war on all the good parts of the last three centuries has been a background presence. Not always that obvious, not always that effective in advancing its aims, but always there, like a stalker’s backlit silhouette, or the smell of lubricant in a creepy teacher’s car. It’s been a sibilant whisper in the nation’s ear, offering Othering and finger-pointing faux outrage doused liberally (but not, of course, Liberally) with the cheap cologne and swaggering ignorance of Laddish ‘common-sense’, delivered daily to café breakfast tables and free-paper bus commutes all across the land. The dial has been noticeably turned up since the self-inflicted disaster of Brexit, as 70’s style open racism has been escorted back into mainstream discourse to fill the urgent need for a tried and tested method of redirecting the growing panic of a General Public increasingly unsure of its footing amidst the rising tides of Corporate Supremacism away from the sensation of smooth white hands rooting around in their pockets, and towards some of the more traditional and acceptable targets for Rightist fulmination.

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Mostly, it’s taken the form of a relentless media campaign across every cultural platform, pouring steaming hot race-baiting, sneering misogyny and non-Cis fearmongering across the top of our national dish, a jumbled up hot-pot of familiar tinned staples and fresh new flavour combinations drawn from around the world, in which all the roughly-peeled vegetables sunk below our increasingly affluent but rapidly shrinking Upper Class have been finely julienne-sliced into siloed slivers a la crabs l‘bucket, and the meatier ingredients are a mix of chunky, slow-cooked ‘Working Families’ thickened up with a minced-up ragu of ‘Workshy Benefit Scroungers’. Very occasionally, when the temperature hit boiling, there’s been the odd opportunistic foray into open violence, but mostly, by design, it’s been an insidious drip-drip-drip of poison into the cultural jus, a toxic aftertaste most don’t even register as out of place because it’s what they were brought up on. It’s ebbed and flowed in intensity and focus with the beat of societal flux, sometimes a full-on, foam-flecked howling for the blood of aliens and deviants, but most of the time couching its raw-milk racism in the seaside postcard populism of Page 3’s Jessie, 23, from Devon, who wants us to know that she’d be ever so excited if all you patriots joined her and her enormous boobs in supporting England’s (and it’s always England’s) Boys in whatever footy tournament they’re about to get knocked out of by the Germans Portuguese bloody Italians.

Dangerous and ridiculous at the same time, but yeah, it’s always been there.

Nowadays, following the stunning success of its longshot Brexit offensive (tagline – Europeans took our country!) which exploited long-standing Tory divisions and the desolate end product of four decades of Thatcherism to drag us thrashing and squealing out of the EU – breaking, in the process, all of our economies, including the political one – the British Right’s campaign has pivoted to blaming all of this small, isolated country’s rapidly accumulating post-Brexit ills, real and imagined, on the made-up threat of Small Boats and Uncontrolled Illegal Immigration (tagline – brown people took our country!). They’ve managed to successfully repurpose whole swathes of social-media from forums for make-up tips, amateur porn and football banter into an unregulated firehose of racist misinformation, plus make-up tips, amateur porn and football banter, with the algorithms weighted towards convincing swathes of the left-behind and under-educated mass of white England that oh, no, no, no, despite the unarguable gravity of the situation they find themselves in, it really would be best for everyone if they didn’t choose to nut-up and take a stand against the rapacious greed of a socio-economic paradigm that has reduced their communities to immiserated hellholes of grinding poverty and cultural deprivation in order to pad the already swollen bank accounts of jet-setting billionaires, but rather looked… Over There! Towards the endless stream of AI generated clips of browns doing bad things and accompanying infinity of AI generated slop about Political Correctness Gone Mad.

Do that for long enough (call it the Winston Smith Treatment) and it becomes obvious that the problems most people face in their daily lives; problems like all of the local shops on their High Streets being boarded up, like it being increasingly hard for them to find work that pays a decent wage, like everything on the shelves being both low quality and costing three times more than they did a few years ago, and like the basic social amenities that their parents and grandparents could rely on to make lower-class lives in Britain’s towns and cities liveable all being stripped away by wave after wave of local government cost-cutting are all, in fact, nothing at all to do with rich people hoarding all of the money, but are solely the fault of Lefty do-gooders and their racist plot to impose Venezuelan style Sharia Law on Heritage Britons by flooding their communities with brown skinned, BMW-driving rape-gangs funded with cash stolen from British taxes by a conspiracy of Woke Charities and The BBC!

Obvs. Yeah? Totally. Totally obvs. Equally obvs is that you’d have to be a titanic fucking moron with a brain the consistency of cheap Brie to believe any of it. Or, maybe, you’d just have to be one of the huge majority of people who “Don’t really follow politics” outside of knowing “They’re all as bad as each other”. The kind of people who get all of their geopolitical ‘facts’ second and third hand from news bulletins playing in the background while they browse Tik Tok, and from all the outraged comments they devour on their ‘neighbourhood’ Facebook groups, the ones run out of Moldovia by a guy who – almost certainly – keeps on losing child custody hearings because of his three convictions for assault and malicious harassment, and because he refers to himself in court as ‘Grimhelm, Trueblood Chieftan of the New Rohirrim’, topless, while sporting questionable tattoos he says he got in Croatia while drunk.

Yes, they know things are fucked up and shit, and they know that someone is to blame, and they’re even dimly aware that they can’t draw any drafts of icy cold truth from the shallow waters of Tabloidland, but the Internet? The Internet wouldn’t lie to them, would it? The people telling them how everything is the fault of Migrants and that only Mass Deportations will Save Our Kids from paedophiles might be bitcoin millionaires with a sideline in smuggling luxury cars out of Bulgaria, but they look and talk just like them, not like those Oxbridge educated wankers on TV with their £1000 haircuts and shiny suits. So, all of the directionless anger and barely contained fear that things for people like them are only going to get worse, quite reasonable anger and justifiable fear that could, if properly addressed by progressive elements with a plan for raising everyone’s boats, seriously threaten the entrenched privilege of the status quo, get harnessed instead into the service of people far, far richer and way more out of touch than even the slimiest politician.

Or, yeah, to be less charitable, it could be that the 30% to 40% of the country that keeps on voting for the worst option available are just a bunch of cowardly fucktards who know full well that their world is imploding, want someone to blame, but because taking a swing at the rich and well-connected types busy partying in safety behind their security gates is a genuinely scary prospect, they prefer to down a few lagers, snort something chemical, and gather in mobs to scream threats into the faces of brown mothers just trying to get her crying kids to school. After all, not judging yourself and just saying the worst thing that comes to mind is what being 21st century British is all about, innit?

Anyway, who the fuck knows. I’m not a sociologist, I can barely spell it. What I do know is that in 2024 this throbbing geyser of vitamin-free bile gave us a Summer of Violence; one that might have started with hordes of tattooed thugs in Union Jack masks jiggling their pasty white moobs to the tune of Rule Britannia outside of the many run-down former hotels where most asylum seekers have been forcibly ‘concentrated’ by successive Tory and Hard Labour Governments – at great expense to us and great profit to the wealthy donors who own these properties, natch – but which culminated in half-arsed but still terrifying Race Riots that left the poorest parts of some cities – mine included – trashed, and many of our non-white communities traumatised. It was such an ugly ruckus that it roused even the somnolent Sir Kier Starmer from his comfortable spot curled up and purring at the foot of the Ministry of Mediocrity’s towering lobby statue, the one depicting a herculean Tony Blair holding up the severed heads of Socialism, Satire and Meritocracy while declaiming Pecunia Causa Id Feci to an assembly of overweight felines. With his AI-generated speech in hand, our Prime Minion shuffled uncomfortably in front of the nearest camera, set his facial slopes to Mildly-Furious, and droned on in the dullest way possible about how his Government wouldn’t stand for this kind of thing, and would inflict gloomy vengeance and faded anger upon any personage of low account found to have disturbed the stale and greywashed peace of Austerityland 2.0.

Middle-England was pretty repulsed by the footage too, and the opportunity was certainly there for any Government willing to take the fight to the people directly responsible for mainstreaming this hate and use that as a place to begin unifying the country around the simple principle of Not Being Dickheads, but we don’t have one of those Governments, we have Starmer and his clutch of perpetually u-turning wannabes. All the inciters (for which read Nigel Farage, Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, the vast majority of our Media organs and Elon Musk) got away with it. A few morons caught up in the thrill of smashing up their own streets to preserve ‘England For The English’ getting banged up for six months was an infinitesimally small price to pay for advancing the Overton Window a few miles to the right. Those droolers could always be repackaged later on as political prisoners and martyrs to the cause if it was deemed necessary, but the important thing was that notice had been served to anyone watching of how much anger there was out there, and how easily and quickly the Far Right could muster up a Moron Militia in anyone’s backyard.

But still, while that kind of in-your-face mob violence might be thrilling in small doses, and the intimidation factor is not to be sneezed at, too much of it gets in the way of the Far Right’s preferred – and currently very successful – tactic of pushing at the already half-open door of newnewlabourinc’s Blue Labour influenced policies on Immigration and other Kultur War issues. The aim is always to chivvy Sir Keir’s rootless centre-Right regime ever Eastward Ho in pursuit of that mythologised voter who is ‘culturally conservative but not actually comfortable with open racism’ his Blue Labour advisors so very, very much want to appeal to. The more they can push Starmer and Co into reacting to Far Right outrages with old-school triangulation and focus-grouped statements about “recognising people’s genuine concerns”, the more the Far Right benefits from the clear implication that newnewlabourinc agrees with the Right on the importance of the issues, but just aren’t up to the job of dealing with them quickly or adequately. The last thing Nigel Farage and his clutch of froggy fascists want is to put newnewlabourinc’s reactionary careerists into a position where social disorder on the streets paints them into a corner where they have to crack down or else risk revolt on their own back benches.

With this in mind, what appears to have happened as 2024 bled into 2025 was that the cash-rich spinfluencers of the modern Far Right had a retooling of their hateful messaging and decided they’d be far better off cooling it with promoting anti-foreigner pogroms and should, instead, launch a new summer campaign, one that co-opted the look, ethos and tribal yobbishness of 2000’s-era football hooliganism – a period looked back on fondly by some of today’s aging Gen-Xers – and rebranded it as an authentic grassroots expression of jovial national pride and Bulldog Bringlish unity in the face of, a) THE MIGRATION CRISIS™, but also b) whatever social or personal problems the people they’d successfully radicalised online might be hung up on that could be triggered to get them up on their feet and screaming obscenities at passing non-whites.

First, they quietly organised a campaign of urban flag-tagging. It makes sense as a tactic. Why risk triggering Police interest by orchestrating gatherings of ill-disciplined morons with criminal records (something like 60% of those arrested outside of asylum hostels chanting about ‘protecting our women and kids’ had form for domestic assault at the last count, 60 fecking percent) when instead, you can just pop an order for eight thousand St George flags and Union Jacks into DHGate and send a selection of the same morons trundling around Britain’s boulevards laying claim to everyone’s eyeline? A few cherry-pickers operating in the middle of the night handled the majority of the work, strapping Union flags and St George crosses to lampposts, leaving whole High Streets looking like there was a Royal Visit in the offing, while for propaganda purposes, and to give local press outlets a story they could run with, the smaller-scale displays of guerilla gobshittery in harder to reach areas were franchised out to local oddballs with time on their hands and nothing between their ears.

Picture the scene, Wayne (late 20s, cobweb tattoo across half his neck, owns five identical tracksuits, has four kids by three different mothers, so pale and bony he could find work as an anatomical skeleton) pushing a wheelbarrow piled with red, white and blue tat from which others fan out with tins of red and white paint to transform convenient roundabouts into Bigot Bullseyes, while Twitchy Mark (late 50s, occasional shelf-stacker, spent some time in prison in the 90s, knows an awful lot about the divisional heraldry of the Waffen-SS) shambles along with a rickety ladder over his shoulder (but not on camera, because while he might be absolutely furious about Those People leeching on Our Taxes he’s still trying to claim disability benefits for a bad back) stops under each flickering streetlamp and braces the ladder so that Wayne can shimmy up and down it draping their run-down estate with Bigotry Bunting. There are an awful lot of lampposts in England, every one of which has a midpoint just begging to be home for a primary-coloured warning that ‘we’ don’t like ‘your kind’ around here. And there are a lot of Twitchy Marks and Waynes too. Educating yourself about how the world really works and not beating up your girlfriend is hard work, but flag-lynching? That’s proper easy.

So that happened, and while people were still nervously deciding whether it was safe to pull down the bigot banners without risking a punch to the face (in many areas, it wasn’t, but the Media wasn’t interested in those insignificant details) and a parade of newnewlabourinc spokescreeps, including the Supine Minister himself, were stutteringly affirming how absolutely splendid this outbreak of not-at-all racist patriotism was (“I love the flag! I’ve got ten at home! I have one over the bed so that I can pleasure my wife patriotically! My OnlyFans sign in account is Hot4theflag2025! Please, love me!”) we got to ‘enjoy’ the Far-Right’s crowning moment of not-awesome, a genuine Fascist march in central London. About a hundred thousand gobshites clogging the streets, bald heads gleaming and beer-bellies bulging, spitting at the Police and pissing all over the sacred monuments to British History their social media profiles would have you believe they feel must be protected from Antifa vandals and the opinions of foreign-loving intellectuals.

Truly it was a sight to see. Like Jan 6th being run out of the back room of a Folkestone BnB by the Mirror Universe cast of Dad’s Army. Tacky and naff and absolutely oozing with fist-clenched rage. The hands down ‘funniest’ bit was when Temu-Hitler wannabe Stephen Yaxley-Lennon (Luton-born, Spain-based, Irish passport holding, US/Russian funded chickenshit neo-Nazi) who the Media resolutely insist on calling by his ‘one of the lads’ stage-name of ‘Tommy Robinson’ (because his own name is clearly a bit too middle-class public schoolboy for the Jason Stathamesque image he wants to project) stood on a stage in central London alongside the grotesque live-streamed head of Elon Musk (after said head had just called for civil insurrection and the violent removal of the British Government – oh, that Elon, what is he like? LOL) and joined the mob in chanting “We are all Charlie Kirk”, which was lovely to hear.

  • Popular only amongst a tiny minority of the country.
  • Inflated by Media hagiography beyond any possibility of long-term influence.
  • Doomed to be shot to death by a fellow-traveller over doctrinal differences.

Make it so, fash-trash. I’m so down with that I’m 2D and horizontal. It’s just a pity the whole sorry slurry of them couldn’t have lived that dreamiest of dreams right there and then. Jonestowning their own filth out of the national gene-pool live on camera and leaving the future considerably brighter for those of us left to mourn the fact they couldn’t have done it sooner.

Sadly, it wasn’t to be, and London’s taxpayers were left to pick up the tab for hosing down and disinfecting their streets in the aftermath. A portion of that bill could probably have been made up if the Metropolitan Police had arrested some of the scumbags while they ran riot and issued on-the-spot fines, but that’s not how The Met rolls. Its armoured-up officers are always too busy playing billy big-bollocks while arresting hundreds of peaceful anti-genocide protestors to risk their delicate foo-foos confronting actual anti-social thugs, especially when said thugs have milky white skin and share The Met’s animus towards melanin-hoarders. The only black faces I saw in the melee were either trying to get away from the mob ASAP or else were capering tokens in their Union Jack suits, pushed to the front for the Media’s attention before being bussed up to Jockland to welcome The Pustule outside Balmoral. Funnily enough I don’t remember a single journalist pointing out this very clear message about the kind of people who actually wanted Donald fucking Trump to come to the UK. Maybe I just missed it.

Anyway, the saddest thing about all this was the Government’s response. Der Starmerpartei couldn’t decry the mass flag-shagging, not after this New Changed Labour Party™ had adopted Flobalob’s ‘twin flags framing a pile of shit at a podium’ stylings wholesale to dictate that every Government Minister and spokescreep now has to wedge themselves between at least one pair of enormous Union Jacks whenever they’re saying something ugly and indefensible on TV, leaving them looking like they’ve sprouted oversized patriotic wings, or they’re cosplaying the episode of Mr Benn where he visited the costume shop and picked the ‘Japanese Bannerman Let Loose On ‘60s Carnaby St’ outfit. They certainly couldn’t push back after their response to the flag-tagging craze of a week before had been another predictably sweet surrender to Rightist tokenism. Hard Labour is the face this Government shows to Lefties and minorities and anyone else who doesn’t think ‘cutting handouts to spongers and slashing red tape for business’ is the sexiest new idea since the starched ruff. When it’s Far-Right thugs spreading fear and hatred with Freikorpsitarian abandon they can’t roll on their backs quickly enough, tongues lolling out and big Disney eyes just begging the morons for that electoral scratch on the tummy they’re never going to receive.

Once again, the Britain that actually voted for Starmer’s Opposition as the least-worst option at the last Election waited for Starmer’s Government to do something, anything, that vaguely looked like meeting the moment, and once again, they were left as disappointed and discouraged as Katie Holmes on her wedding night.

At the end of the day, Starmer’s Government couldn’t respond properly to the aggression of the Right, because Starmer’s Government didn’t want to. When normal people looked at that shitshow in London, they saw a disgusting mob of violent idiots equating British and English with Whites Only thuggery, but when people like Morgan ‘Twat’ McSweeney’s backroom coupists and Baron Maurice Glasman’s Blue Labour big-thinkers, the ones who give the careerist Labour Right their intellectual heft (LOL, thewhatnow?) watch the very same footage, all they can see is an energised and easily gulled electorate they’re desperate to appeal to because, whatever else they are, they’re not Leftwing. So, instead of a call to arms and a stirring refutation of neo-Mosleyism, we got the sorry sight of Starmer and Co nervously applauding the racists for, as they put it, ‘proving that this Government has made the UK a bastion of free speech”, even while the orchestrated chants of ‘Keir Starmer is a Wanker!’ trended on everyone’s stream.

Sigh. The one thing everyone can agree on. Keir Starmer really is a wanker.

Speaking of Der Starmerpartei (sadly, I must, they’re the frigging Government) it will surprise no one to hear that they’ve been failing harder than ever since I last vented. You must all have better ways to spend the next few weeks, so why don’t you go do that and come back when normal life just isn’t glazing your cherry? I’ll still be here. 

Incidents & Accidents, Hints & Allegations

When Sir Keir Starmer first elevated Peter Mandelson to the post of UK Ambassador to the United States of America, reactions were, to put it mildly, pretty varied. To some of our more cynical Press lifeforms and to newnewlabourinc insiders (many of whom had come through the ranks of ‘Progress’, Mandelson’s REMF training school in the dark arts of factional fuckery and political wetwork, and as a result considered him something of a mentor and a morality free exemplar of the canny operator) it was a stroke of genius, a cunning throw of the dice that might, if the ever-oleaginous Mandy could charm and flatter the Oval Ogre into sparing Great Britain from the worst of his tariff tantrums, pay off big time. More or less everyone else in the country who ventured an opinion called it an astonishingly in your face example of the Labour Right’s hard-wired obsession with keeping all of the spoils of victory in-house, and of their crippling weakness for displays of oh-so clever-clever One Cool Trickism, the kind of smart arsed sleight-of-hand that might sound tremendously savvy when cooked up around an Islington dinner-table over a couple of bottles of wine and a line or two of coke, but deflates like a first-time flasher’s penis on exposure to the real world.

Funny thing though, for both schools of thought, their reasoning was exactly the same.

You see, Mandelson, the Blairite backstabber long ago nicknamed ‘The Prince of Darkness’ by people who actually sort of liked him (what does that tell you?) had, at this point, already made himself a couple of very successful careers out of wrapping his talents around the genitals of VIPs and whispering flattering bon mots of advice into their ears that, somehow or other, always ended up benefitting Peter Mandelson and various friends/clients of Peter Mandelson. Serially disgraced and forced to resign as a Labour Minister not once, but twice, he’d naturally moved into the world of lobbying and put his skills to work helping very rich people understand, circumvent, and exploit the global regulatory landscape by, basically, telling them who to bribe, with what, and for only a cursory extra fee syncing up everyone’s diaries to make the deal happen just when the best caviar was in season at the nearest Michelin starred restaurant. He was also, like Trump, a part of the whole Epstein circuit. He and the Prince of Perv Island were proper good chums, close enough for Mandelson to arrange a meeting between Epstein and then Prime Minister Blair in 2002 to discuss, well, that would be a secret, wouldn’t it, dear hearts, and also for Mandelson to lodge at one of Epstein’s penthouses in 2009 while its owner was in jail for (checks notes) soliciting underage prostitution. ‘Petie’ and his ‘best pal’ appear to have been very, very close friends. Soulmates, if you will.

Now, bear in mind, the decision to make Mandelson US Ambassador was taken after Epstein’s death, after the former Prince Andrew’s comfortable sinecure as Royal-For-Sale had crashed and burnt on impact with the truth about his own Epstein connections, and long, long after the Epstein name had become a pop-culture byword for sleezy paedophilic influence peddling. It was made when the people in the room discussing the appointment knew full well that he and Epstein had been close, knew that Mandelson had been a frequent guest at Epstein properties, and knew that he’d sent Epstein supportive messages during his trial and after his conviction. To think that making a person like that Ambassador to the US was a good idea, you’d either have to think that the Epstein affair was done and dusted and would never be allowed to raise its head again (sort of possible in 2025, I’ll allow) or you’d have to think that the dirty secrets beneath the Mandelson/Epstein/Trump connection would actually prove an advantage. A sort of sotto voice acknowledgement that the UK Government wasn’t interested in what His Presidential Majesty may or may not have got up to while palling around with paedophile rapists, because, hey, just look who they’d sent to represent them at his Court. Nudge Nudge, Wink Wink, say no more.

Either way, this decision paid off just like a huge proportion of the other decisions made under the aegis of Starmer’s feral Chief of Staff, Morgan ‘Twat’ McSweeney, by which I mean in a colossal and very public fuck-up that smeared pickled chicken ovaries all over his Boss’ immobile face and, to the delight of many and the despair of very few, left Peter Mandelson once again disgraced and forced to resign. Turns out, McSweeney’s vetting process when pushing Mandelson for the job had boiled down to ‘Peter wants, Peter gets’ and he’d lobbied Starmer to push through the appointment before the official vetting had even finished, while the career civil servants whose job it was to warn Ministers when they’re making easily avoidable faceplants had still been expressing their strong reservations about putting someone like Peter Mandelson into a post that left the Government exposed if there were any further revelations. Revelations just like the kind Bloomberg would leak into public view later in 2025, including incriminating details about the depth and length and intensity of Mandelson’s continued relationship with Epstein that he’d either lied about, Starmer and McSweeney hadn’t asked about, or they’d asked about but didn’t care enough about to let it influence their pre-made decision.

Once it blew up, Mandelson, being about three DNA chains removed from a Facehugger, tried to style it all out, responding to Press questions about Epstein with his usual shrewish venom and soliciting a “full confidence” statement from Starmer in Parliament, but it was all for nothing. Petie was obviously done and resigned the next day. Clean-up on Aisle 3, there’s Mandelscandal all over the floor again and we need a crew with stout brushes and buckets of soapy vinegar down there stat to sing yet another chorus of “We had no idea there were any skeletons hiding in the cupboards of Castle Everything-Here-Is-Made-Exclusively-Of-Bones”.

It got worse, of course. It always does where Peter fucking Mandelson is concerned. After a few months keeping his oily head down and waiting for the dust to settle, ‘Mandy’ obviously thought he could remind Trump and Co of what a charming and very useful fellow he was by informing the British Media that Europe’s response to The Orange One’s interest in annexing Greenland was ‘histrionic’. Quite why the British media thought it necessary to share Peter Mandelson’s foreign policy opinions with us is a mystery (it’s not – Mandelson is an important figure on the Labour Right with a presence in all the rooms where Der Starmerpartei makes its decisions, when he speaks, you hear the opinions of the Donor Class) but as they were already interviewing him as part of his reputational reset tour (basically he’s so sorry, Jeffrey who? Let’s put the past behind us, eh?) the savvy understanding was that Mandy would obviously wrap the rotten egg of his return to influence in sweet, chocolaty contrarianism, all the better to signal to the upper echelons of the British Government that he was a Trump-friendly asset they could not afford the bother of freezing out.

It probably would have worked, too, had the latest tranche of mostly redacted Epstein material not included e-mails and photographs that not only underlined, with big, thick sharpie strokes, not just how close Mandelson had been to Epstein for years, but also provided evidence that he had been a mole for Epstein (and the interests that used Epstein as a source of profitable information) within the UK Government for decades, leaking highly confidential secrets about the UK Government’s economic plans and advising foreign financial interests on how to threaten and coerce the UK Government while he was a UK Government Minister!

Yeah, this time, the stake has been truly hammered home. There’s no way even Mandy can slither back from this disgrace. But for me (and I’m not alone in this) the real scandal is that Peter fucking Mandelson was ever in a position to be this scummy. There’s a line in one of the e-mails from 2012 that absolutely sums up who Mandelson – and by extension the entire Labour Right/Labour Together cabal are at a very basic level. Mandelson (after his second humiliating sacking from a Labour Cabinet) was visiting an economic forum in China and described his presence there to Epstein as “trying to make an honest living”, to which Epstein replied “trying something new?” and Mandelson comes back with “Indeed”. That’s the Mandelson/McSweeney brand of ‘Changed UK Labour’ to a fucking tee. Corrupt, smarmy, self-satisfied panderers to corporate profit and authoritarian power who lie for a living and have nothing but contempt for anyone who can’t put money in their pocket or skate away from responsibility by abusing their influence. Mandelson, through his mentorship of McSweeney and behind the scenes networking for Labour Together, created the modern Starmerite iteration of Labour. His tireless fuckery helped give us the narrow Tory win of 2017, Flobalob’s ascension to power, Brexit, the mishandling of Covid, Liz Truss’ near bankrupting of the country and the soul-destroying betrayal of 2024’s promise of Change that could well lead to a Maga-like fascist Government coming to power here in the UK.

All that, and he was rewarded for it. Honoured. Elevated. Rendered infuriatingly untouchable and smirkingly victorious until cast-iron, irrefutable evidence of the decades long friendship the leadership of newnewlabourinc knew he had with a world-renowned PAEDOPHILE RAPIST AND SLAVER was revealed for all to see. That’s the kind of person Peter Mandelson always was. That’s the kind of person Changed UK Labour looks up to and takes its cues from. The only crime they give a fuck about is being Leftwing, and their entire modus operandi remains punishing that crime to the exclusion of all else.

Hissing noise.

All par for the course where this Government is concerned, I’m afraid. Hubris, arrogance, and a dash of delusional certainty that despite all of the intense and relentless hostility shown them by the UK Press since they assumed office, surely this time their bedrock commitment to neutering progressive politics for the benefit of the status-quo would finally pay off in friendly coverage. It’s a delusion their comms team (such as it is, people keep on resigning or getting sacked) clings to because they pretty much have to. The founding myth of the Labour Right’s claim to absolute power is that they are the grown-ups in a Party of idealistic fantasists, the only ones who understand how things really work and have the gravitas and credibility required to handle the Business and Media worlds on an equal footing of mutual respect. For a lot of them, acknowledging that they were never going to be allowed to sit at the Kewl Kidz table and that their mission to drag Labour to the Right only ever made them useful idiots in the eyes of the British ruling elites would break their minds. They have to keep on hoping, otherwise they’d have to admit to themselves that their Grand Plan to replace the Conservatives as the UK’s natural centre-right Party of Government was always just a suicide note written in crayon.

Speaking of which…

But Angie, Angie. Ain’t it time we said goodbye?

Angela Rayner, Deputy Leader of the Labour Party, Deputy Prime Minster and Housing Secretary, was forced to step down from all of her roleslast September following a long-running media-led scandal centring on her not being entirely 100% accurate when explaining what advice she’d received when she paid stamp duty on a second home. Strictly speaking she probably ‘did it’, and it’s exactly the kind of thing Cabinet members would have been expected to stand down for 10 years ago, but in these post-Flobalobian times it wouldn’t have registered as an unchewed radish-burp on the Corruptionometer if it weren’t for the fact that Rayner, a working-class single-mother widely seen as being on the Left of the Changed UK Labour Party, had been targeted for elimination since the very start of the Starmer Era by McSweeney’s faction of thin-necked absolutists. For comparison, Nigel fucking Farage himself was exposed in a far bigger scandal at the exact same time, with questions being asked over where, exactly, the £885,000 his officially bankrupt partner Laure Ferrari had used to buy Farage’s constituency home in Claton-on-Sea had come from (foreign donors), and if it was a transparent fraud to avoid Farage himself having to pay stamp duty on the purchase (yes, obviously). This scandal was in the news for about thirty-two seconds before the media quickly and efficiently lost interest and forgot all about it. Rayner’s case enjoyed very different treatment. With McSweeney’s slimy rope-cutters on her case, in addition to having the entirety of our right-wing Media scrabbling through her bins and knicker drawers looking for something – anything – they could nail her with, it was always just a matter of time before something was hyped up to force her out.

Now, of course, I won’t deny that I’ve had my own issues with Rayner, but a lot of those issues stem from the position she found herself in as the de facto sole remaining Lefty at the top of the Changed (for the worse) Labour Party™, and I’m temperamentally unable to ignore relevant facts just because they leave unsightly smears on the Great Glass Table of Comfortable Certainty. On the one hand, she’s often been the face and voice of the Party leadership when what they wanted said was indefensible bullshit. On the other hand, it’s pretty obvious that the reason they put her up there to say those things was because they wanted a credible Lefty buffer between them and the results of their decisions, and on the third hand, the likely reason she’d have agreed to make those statements in the first place is because she was trying to play the game by their rules – you do this favour for us, Ange, and we’ll earmark funding for the policies you actually want to push as Housing Secretary. You wouldn’t want to put those nice anti-inequality policies in jeopardy by refusing to be a team player, now, would you? Hmmm?

Thing is, Rayner’s position within the Government wasn’t really based on her being Deputy Labour Party Leader or Deputy PM, the first of which was purely a position she was voted into by Party members at the same time as Starmer lied his way into the Leader’s chair, and the second a position she gained because that was recent tradition and – at the time – Starmer’s leadership campaign was still pretending to be about restoring Party unity. Her position was based much more on her popularity within the Party and the popularity of the policy profile she’d steadily carved out in the years since Starmer’s controllers had tried – and failed – to make her carry the can for losing the Hartlepool by-election back in 2021.

Brief digression – what had actually happened back then was the newly ascendant McSweeney faction, facing its first external challenge where it couldn’t just finagle the rules to kneecap its opponents, had fucked that whole campaign up all by themselves – imposing a crap candidate over the heads of local Party memberships, making former Hartlepool MP Peter ‘see above’ Mandelson the face of the campaign, campaigning as ‘Not Corbyn’s Labour’ with a candidate who’d supported Remain in a seat Corbyn’s Labour had won twice, despite it voting 70% Leave, and this at the height of Flobalob Johnson’s ‘Make Brexit Happen’ popularity. When they inevitably lost that traditionally Labour seat to the Conservatives they tried to dump all the blame for this conga-line of ineptitude on Rayner, but it blew up in their faces, since she was in a post they belatedly realised they couldn’t just sack her from, and she’d been smart enough to keep the receipts for all the times she told them during the campaign exactly how they were fucking it up. Starmer apparently had such a wobble at the time he almost resigned as leader (I doubt it, but that’s the story they put out there later) and then he had to lead a humiliating climb-down that saw Rayner emerge from the mess with an enhanced reputation and a wide-ranging shadow policy profile.

From that moment on, the McSweeney Tendency were out to get her by any means necessary. Not just because her position as Deputy PM made her the de facto front runner in any post-Starmer leadership contest (we’ll come to that) but because for the first time since Corbyn’s election as leader and the close-run thing of General Election 2017, they’d been humiliated by a despised Lefty Trot, and if there’s one thing those behind-the-oven mould spores are good at, it’s maintaining grudges against The Left for years and years until they can act on them, to hell with the consequences. They were behind the deselection of her partner, Sam Tandy, as a Labour MP, exploiting their iron control over the Party’s bureaucracy and its vote-counting software – all overseen by then Election Supremo McSweeney’s office and current Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood – to ensure he’ lost’ his reselection vote (they did that a lot during the years of The Purge) and I’d bet my collection of erotic Joe Pesci figurines that the Media were given off-the-record briefings by ‘Party insiders’ clueing them in to exactly where she was vulnerable. After all, Rayner had discussed her financial affairs with these ‘party insiders’ when it first came up, to clear the air and seek advice. They knew exactly where the media should look.

But anyway, with Rayner out, there had to be an election for a replacement. The McSweeney Tendency would have preferred to just appoint someone loyal and obedient and less charismatic than their foundering figurehead to the post (a faded black and white photograph of a severed fish head on a pike, perhaps, or a thinly buttered strip of curling linoleum from the floor of a crackhouse toilet) but that annoying democracy thing got in their way once again. They had to content themselves with fucking over the election process itself, insisting that candidates had to gather a much larger than usual selection of MPs signatures within a ridiculously truncated period while the House wasn’t even in session, which gave candidates who already had connections within the Party machinery and the media an insurmountable advantage. In the end the only candidates to make the cut were Starmerite Education Minister Bridget Phillipson and former Leader of the House (sacked by Starmer for daring to have reservations about welfare cuts) Lucy Powell.

The whole sorry fiasco just sums up, yet again, everything wrong with Hard Labour. Powell, a solid old-school Blairite in all things who, nevertheless, seemed to understand that the Party’s right-facing drive for Tory votes is leaving it bereft of centre-left support, was painted by ‘party insiders’ as a crazy, divisive Marxist who was nothing more than a mouthpiece for their current Bête Noire, Manchester Mayor (and likely future Labour leader if he ever solves the conundrum of how to get selected as a candidate for a Parliamentary constituency while McSweeney’s appointees still control the selection process) Andy Burnham. The insider smearing was intense, super-sexist, and so factionally extreme it even annoyed Phillipson, who was left to wear the albatross of ‘Starmer’s Choice’ around her neck in a race where everybody but the people running the Party knew the membership were out to send Dear Leader a message.

End result. Powell 54%, Phillipson 47%. Starmer fail.

Cheers, Morgan. You prick. How the hell do you still have a job?

So Many faces, Most Looking Right

We also had Party Conference month here in The Bottomlands, and you know what that means! Four weeks of vox-pops, earnest pieces to camera while not much was happening, and swooping camera shots as the BBC, that ever so carefully cultivated field of conservative-friendly legumes (by which I mean the editorial execs and the on-screen ‘talent’, not the dedicated employees who do the actual technical work of making TV very, very well indeed) tried to collect enough Entertainment News-style footage to edit and clip together a traditionalist narrative their Tory-appointed commissars could approve of. Right Wing = Sensible & Statesmanlike, Left Wing = Chaotic & Concerning, Centrist = Boring & Bumbling. Now with the added fizz of the Frog Fascist Far Right, which apparently = Interesting & Inevitable.

Nigel Farage’s ‘Reform Party’ isn’t an actual political Party, of course, though you’d never know that from the Media coverage. The ‘Reform Party’ is, just like its ‘Brexit Party’ predecessor, a limited company, with Froggy fuckface as one of its directors (since he had to officially divest himself of full ownership earlier this year) meaning it has entirely opaque funding and no real voice for the non-existent membership. If any vaguely left-leaning Party ever tried to operate in this way they’d be hounded day and night by armies of journalists and pundits affecting shock-horror outrage at the gross insult to basic democratic standards this all represents, but since it’s the Fascists, and since the UK Media is run by the people who work for the people who hold shares in the companies invested in by the people who fund Frogage and the whole Alliance of X-rated International Scumbags, it’s just another one of the things we’re sometimes tersely informed by plastic-wrapped pundits that “No one but Proggy scolds cares about”.

The Reform conference itself was exactly what you’d expect from a bunch of slab-foreheaded wallies too extreme for the modern Tory Party. Flag-shagging, an obsession with Securing The Border, unfunded bait-and-switch lures for the votes of ‘honest, working families’, sneering at, blaming and threatening various cartoonish Enemies, and just a general sense that the people on stage were having a fine old time out-doing each other with performative lunacy because everyone involved knew the whole thing was just a great, big theatrical stunt no one was supposed to take too seriously. How could they? If they ever did get into Government all of their policy decisions would be made far, far away from the hoi polloi, by much more important people. People with money. People, ultimately, called Vlad. In the end, all Reform PLC served up was a heaped plate of ‘Deport All Foreigns’, ‘Preserve Our Kultur’, and similar moronic three-word phrases, and their conference was little more than a cheap market stall for the kind of bitter and measly racism that used to be the preserve of the National Front and British National Party, back when the UK still had a veneer of civilisation about it, but since the disaster of 2016 has, sadly, but not accidentally, been rendered so mainstream it’s now tonally indistinguishable from a lot of what you’d hear at the Labour and Conservative conferences.

Next up were Ed Davey’s Homely Heroes of House Hufflepuff AKA The Liberal Democrats, the Party with 14 times as many seats as our Froggy Fascists, but 0.0001% of the coverage. Nobody really knows what their policies are (probably the political equivalent of a nice village hall Bake Sale in support of Edna Pickerslee’s asthmatic nephew Harvey’s charity walk from Mablethorpe to Hythe raising money to buy radio ads warning against logging in the Amazon – all nice and well-intentioned, but it’s not going to get the job done). The UK Media generally stopped paying attention to the Lib-Dems when Jo Swinson’s rabidly anti-Left version took a bullet to the tote bag in 2019, and the Liberal Democrat membership did themselves no favours by rejecting the ambitious Left-leaning option of Layla Moran as leader in favour of Davey’s Centrist Dad shtick, with its cringey stunt-appearances and tortuous defences of the Lib-Dem Party’s 2010-15 Coalition with Cameron’s Conservatives, the period that utterly shattered their hard earned reputation as being the Nice Party.  I’m tempted to put their rightward lurch down to the influx of ex-Tories that followed Brexit, but I don’t care enough to check. Davey is – trying – to wave the flag for last-century consensus politics, but that boat sank a long time ago, and all hands were lost.

Der Starmerpartei themselves imposed their Annual Conference on my own fair city of Liverpool. A mismatch of people and place similar in scale to that time August Escoffier tried to serve the full twelve courses of his revolutionary Flambee Soufflé to battalions of Les Poilus at the Battle of Verdun, only this time with fewer radicalised socialists and many more corporate hospitality booths. I was actually in the Town centre doing some charity work during that weekend (ooooh, virtue signal be bright today) and it was like someone had released a cattle car full of teenage Mad Men aficionados at Lime Street Station, hundreds of them zipping around the drizzled streets like bespectacled electrons in their Party-issued uniform of short mack and pointy shoes, oozing contempt from their clogged pores for the very concept of ‘Liverpool’ while dragging tiny wheeled suitcases through puddles and searching forlornly for the other 90% of their facial hair. Unfair, I know. A lot of them were probably terrifically decent people trying to keep the progressive Labour tradition alive while yoked to a leadership machine that hates their guts, but it’s just so hard to tell them from the ambitious Olivers and Tabithas who scored their delegate badges by spending their University holidays pruning the local constituency membership rolls of anyone with a social media account who had ever voiced less than 110% support for the leadership’s ever shifting policy offerings, so, yeah, I’m very okay with being mean.

The Not Tory sectors of the Media are used by now to the iron-fisted style of newnewelabourinc’s brief moments of uncomfortable intercourse with its despised membership, all stage managed to within a hair’s breadth of asphyxiation to avoid any more embarrassing outbreaks of democracy on the floor, with VIPs prowling around backstage cocking and uncocking their soundbite shotguns in front of rows of floor to ceiling mirrors and gimlet-eyed ‘advisors’ barking orders in between gulps of no-fat virgin blood. They waxed all kinds of lyrical over Starmer’s signature speech, with its very, very belated bleating about Nigel Farage being, maybe, a bit racist adjacent, but not actually racist, because of course that would be slander, while Reformites themselves were very fine people led astray by a fast-talking huckster and the raging intensity of their deeply held beliefs that were, despite all appearances, definitely not racist, honest. A step change in newnewlabourinc’s much reviled policy of symbolic synchronisation with Reform’s agenda, perhaps? Could our Sir Keir finally be learning the lesson of the last year and be making it easier for Polly Toynbee and Rafael Behr to justify their FTF Guardian sinecures? Could this be the start of Labour reunification and a return to popularity?

Fat chance.

Before the echoes of applause had faded it was the turn of the new Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, a woman who, as mentioned, made her bones heading up the election manipulation unit tasked by Hard Labour with making sure as many of the ‘the right candidates’ as possible made it through the reselection wars of 2020/21, to stand at her podium and give a headline speech chucking the same old divisive contempt at immigrants, proposing 2nd class status and Forced Labour as ways for them to ‘prove their dedication to becoming British’, and generally underlining two things for the hard of thinking. One, while Changed UK Labour™ would grimly endure a degree of applause from the soft-left for punching Farage in his soft gut, their number one priority was always to showcase their square-jawed rejection of namby-pamby, Pinko ‘progressive’ solutions by giving as many of Farage’s actual policies as possible a vigorous hand-job. And two, Shabana Mahmoud had clearly displaced Health Secretary Wes Streeting as the definitive new standard bearer for Blue Labour-brand authoritarianism, and was most definitely going to be a contender in the leadership race that was already revving up to replace Starmer.

They are so inept. So determinedly unpopular. So completely unwilling to admit a mistake that they’re reaching more and more often into the toolbag of authoritarian solutions they used to crush opposition in the Party and applying them to the country at large. Frankly, the only people to come out of that farce of a Conference with a modicum of self-respect were the people who risked being added to the Must Expel List to go see Andy Burnham making speeches about a more hopeful future for Labour at fringe events, and the Left-wing journalists Der Starmerpartei had booted from the Arena for doing basic journalist things. One of them was the FTF Guardian’s own token Leftie Owen Jones, who committed the cardinal sin of asking the parachuted in MP for North Durham and Greater Israel Luke Akehurst (imagine a mottled puce balloon on which a crying child has been asked to draw the angry face of their nastiest teacher) to explain the Government’s continued military support for Netanyahu’s war crimes and his own apologia for genocide. Spoilers, he couldn’t, but he did get ever so angry, and so Owen had to go.

The Green Party Conference, by contrast, went quite well. Lots of energy, lots of applause, and a lot of sensible things said about the need to address the UK’s gross inequality and spiralling corporate greed. In new leader beardless Zohran Mamdani Zack Polanski they’ve got a charismatic, media-friendly figurehead who is admirably nimble-footed in dealing with our turgid media’s predictably hostile reaction to anyone not blaming everything on THE MIGRATION CRISIS™!!! The speeches were good, zeroing in on the fact that what most people are actually angry about isn’t immigration, but inequality and the rising cost of living, and that the prime drivers of these problems are the same old same old – corporate welfare, right wing economics and Brexit. If it weren’t for the possibility of an actual Party of the actual Left maybe emerging out of Your Party, I’d already have joined up. As it stands, if there’s no YP candidate standing in my constituency in May (when the local elections are) then they’ve got my vote, and I am far from alone. Millions of centre-left voters sent flying out of the Labour tent by Der Starmerpartei’s Purity Police will likely end up finding a home in the Greens, eventually, I might even be among them.

Then the Tory Conference. Jesus Christ, how the mighty have fallen. In Kemi Badenoch they evidently hoped they were getting a plausibly Hard Right leader who could slow, and hopefully reverse, the exodus of voters to Reform by championing similar policies under the Conservative banner, an attack dog of crisply-vowelled extremism that could win back the Tory voters who had flocked to Reform’s No-Shame food-truck back in 2024 while sporting the right skin pigmentation to deflect accusations of being a gross racist. Unfortunately for them, what they actually got in Badenoch was a dim-witted gaffe machine who routinely launches ill thought-out tirades against the usual targets (Wokeness, Lefty Lawyers, Eurocrats, Immigrants, etc) that either fall flat because other people with larger megaphones have already said it, or go splat against the wall because they’re so telegraphed a banana plant could move fast enough to dodge them. It’s just embarrassing. I can’t even muster a good hate for her, she’s just so awful and she really doesn’t seem to know it.

At the dispatch box she’s a belligerent fantasist who lacks the basic political skills to inflict any kind of damage on Starmer. Say what you like about Flobalob Johnson (and I very much did) but he would have absolutely relished the weekly opportunity Prime Minister’s Questions allows for the Leader of the Opposition to tear Sir Plastic Poultryfucker into quivering strips of humiliated jerky. A toddler could do it, but Badenoch doesn’t have that level of professionalism. The only thing keeping her in place leading the Tories (into extinction) are the rules governing when Tory leadership challenges can take place and the fact that not many Tory MPs want her job. All that drama aside, the Tory Conference was basically just the Reform Conference, except everyone was older and had all the optimistic gaiety of a speed-dater who can see Larry Summers eyeing them from the next table. Hovering around 16% to 18% in the polls. Broken, ignored, absolutely devoid of relevance or new ideas. No one cares, let’s move on.

Your Party, the fledgling centre-left party for all the people Labour Together told to fuck off out of ‘their’ Changed UK Labour Party™ also held its inaugural Conference in Liverpool, at the same venue in fact, so a great deal of time had to be spent in advance steaming the place for lice and wiping Morgan ‘Twat’ McSweeney’s faecal scrawlings off the walls (I won’t repeat them here, but I will just say that he’s a very angry young man with a tenuous grasp on both human anatomy and appropriate inter-familial relationships). It was all considerably less chaotic than the UK Media were hoping for. No riots. No slanging matches. No orchestrated walk-outs. No deadlocked midnight votes over the minutiae of clause 931 of Subsection 442.a of Comradely Pronouns, Acceptable Pronunciations Of. Nothing for the pundits and their audience to point and laugh at. The member-delegates turned up on time and got on with the actual work of debating and voting on the Party’s foundational principles and rules while all the coverage was snoozeworthy gossip about how Jezza Corbyn and Zara Sultana, like, totally hate each other, right? And it’s all, like, hair-pulling and face-scratching. The UK Media either can’t or won’t wrap their ossified minds around the idea of a Member Led political Party that will choose its own policies and leaders and doesn’t ascribe to the personality-driven faux-presidential style of One Man – One Vote the Media prefer because it’s easier than doing their job. Will it work out? Only time will tell. But I can tell you it makes a refreshing change to have membership votes translate into progressive, inclusive Party policy, instead of membership votes being derisively ignored by a leadership cabal that thinks democracy is for losers.

Ah, British politics. Please change.

“Bring Me, My Special Spade”

Back in February last year messages from a WhatsApp group called Shiver Me Timbers used by some arsehole Manchester Labour politicians were leaked to the media and caused yet another scandal for Der Starmerpartei. Apart from being shitty about constituents and the Left in general (which is, like, totally promotion-worthy content as far as the McSweeney Tendency are concerned), the messages were racist, misogynistic and – the kicker – borderline antisemitic, and it led to the MP for Gorton and Denton, Andrew Gwynne, being dismissed as a Minister and suspended from the Party. Fast forward to January and Gwynne finally decided to step down as MP, which meant a by-election to replace him.

The thing that made this national news was that Gorton and Denton, being a constituency on the edge of Manchester, was seen as a natural fit for Manchester’s three-times elected Mayor Andy Burnham should he want to step down and stand as an MP. Actually, there’s no ‘should he’ about it. Burnham has made no secret about his desire to return to Parliament where a LOT of MPs see him as the standard-bearer for the kind of centre-left Labour policies the McSweeney Tendency has started rendering taboo following its successful purge of the Party’s socialists. With Starmer tottering and looking odds on to be defenestrated should newnewlabourinc get its balls kicked off in the local elections due to take place this May, there would almost certainly be an election for a new Labour leader and, therefore, a new PM. The behind-the-scenes manoeuvrings started early and have been going on for a long time. Inspired partly by Starmer’s historic unpopularity (he’s the most unpopular PM in history, basically) and partly by the open secret that Old Pained Expression was never actually meant to be PM at all. Back when the McSweeney Tendency picked him as their figurehead it was purely in order to give their extremist faction a candidate to hide behind who could plausibly (not very, IMHO) offer the Party’s exhausted membership an end to factional divisions and a popular Party manifesto of ‘Corbynism without Corbyn’. The McSweeneyites expected Flobalob to remain the darling of the UK Media for a good long while yet, and therefore stand a reasonable chance of being a two term PM, leaving them free to quietly purge ‘their’ Labour Party of anyone to their Left and replace them with safe, obedient, corporate-friendly drones acceptable to the real Interests that rule Britain, after which Starmer would fall on his sword after losing the 2024 Election and they could elevate a properly house-broken and semi-charismatic frontman to the leadership (they were probably thinking Wes Streeting) just in time for the electorate to get bored with Tory sleeze and hand them the keys to the kingdom in 2030.

Covid, Partygate, Truss, Rishi Sunak’s refusal to be a white male in an era of rising racism on the Right, all combined to shatter the Tory Party way ahead of schedule and catapult the Plastic Peer into a role he is temperamentally unsuited for and incapable of getting to grips with. A genuine leader with his own firmly rooted beliefs and ability to take people with him, when handed a 170+ majority and the current mayhem on the Right, could have been truly historic in the scope and scale of their ambitions – but we got Keir Starmer instead, an awkward, dismal, monotone of a man with the strong belief that he’d quite like a comfortable post-politics career chairing various important institutions and all the charisma of a damp urinal cake sandwiched between two off-grey woollen socks. A recent book had a quote from Dowing Street insiders (implied to be either McSweeney himself or one of his inner cohort) describing Starmer as, to paraphrase, the guy who thinks he’s driving the train because he’s allowed to sit in front with the autopilot on. Quite how no one was fired for that candid assessment is the answer to the question “Who really runs Changed UK Labour?” – Clue: Not Keir Starmer.

By lashing himself so firmly to McSweeney’s line of punching Left and lunging Right, all Starmer has managed to do is shatter the link between Changed UK Labour and its most loyal voter base and give Reform PLC free rein to monopolise public attention on the areas it wants to campaign on. By coming into office with a scandal about accepting freebie gifts from rich donors and then aiming newnewlabourinc’s lustful gaze directly at the swollen pockets of the American Right’s Tech-Bro Axis, he’s shielded Nigel Farage’s status as a bought and paid for acolyte of rich donors and allowed him to skate past the reality that he’s just the fictionalised creation of a Red, White & Blue themed billionazi social media promotion. Everything that the British electorate have come to despise about Changed UK Labour has Sir Keir Starmer’s inert moan of a face plastered all over it, he’s toxic. The unstated truth is that getting him gone from Number 10 at the earliest credible opportunity isn’t just vital for newnewlabourinc’s electoral chances (slim as they are) it’s vital for the careers of those who want to replace him there.

So, it looks like there are two main candidates already in position to campaign to be post-Starmer leader. Shabana Mahmood, snarling face of what I’d call the Blue Labour faction. Basically, the lobby group devised by Baron Maurice Glasman to promote what it calls “blue-collar and culturally conservative values within Labour, particularly on immigration, crime, equality and diversity and community spirit”. If that sounds highly Americanised, it is, because Glasman is an admirer of Trump and Bannon and wants Labour to become a populist movement promising (if I may translate their self-description into real terms) closed borders, heavy handed policing, the marginalisation of minorities and White Identity Politics. Blue Labour more or less think the Right has won the propaganda war and that the only way to preserve any kind of ‘progressive’ inheritance in the face of climate change and environmental collapse is for Labour to become the Party of Nationalist Socialism and shrink its outreach down to just the WWC and the most assimilated non-whites. Why would Mahmood, a woman of South-Asian heritage, be this faction’s chosen standard bearer? Because Blue Labour want to be able to claim that they’re not really surrendering to racism, they’re just providing a home for patriotic people of all colours and creeds who want to work hard and rescue the working classes from the scourges of out of control crime, mass immigration and Benefit Culture. That’s why Mahmood has moved fast to position herself as the (Fe)Mailed Fist of Order, announcing plans to end jury trials (temporarily, of course), create a National Police Service to combat terrorism (being redefined as we speak to mean saying words genocide apologists don’t like and targeting innocent likkle arms suppliers) organised crime (foreign born grooming gangs) and public disorder (dirty, UnBritish protestors and their dangerous placards) by bringing in a raft of exciting new high-tech tools produced by, ahem hem, Peter Thiel’s Palantir, and to force immigrants to accept second-class status and compulsory ‘public service’ requirements in order to stay in the country.

She’s chilling. The media love her.

Then there’s Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary and the man most affiliated with McSweeney’s own Labour Together faction. Though they’re often interlinked and have worked with and through each other for years, Labour Together lacks Blue Labour’s internationalist, populist themes. Labour Together is basically Peter Mandelson’s malformed seed injected into the Labour Party, now grown into an invasive parasite determined to march its horrified host in ever tighter rightward circles until nothing of the Left remains. The eventual aim is to replace the Conservative Party as the ‘natural Party of Government’ by shedding every progressive, leftwing policy and swapping its old electorate for the one that won elections for the Tories for most of the last century. Corporate-friendly, hostile to Unions and progressive causes, anxious to please and appease the right-wing Press and donor class at every turn. Streeting was their bright-eyed boy going back to 2016, when he was one of the faces of the anti-Corbyn smear machine that eventually cost the Party a couple of million votes and ushered in Flobalob. Under Starmer he was given the Health portfolio and embarked upon a mass reorganisation of the NHS (costing jobs but achieving very little) more tech-solutions waffle (new US-sourced IT systems produced by his donors that I can personally confirm are shit) and a bossy, confrontational, finger wagging attitude to junior doctors and nurses that has led to continued industrial action and the stalling of his ambitions. I’ll give Streeting this, though. He was one of the first to sniff the perilous rot in the foundations of Starmerism and, with Mahmood monopolising the Labour Right position, has been quietly, cynically, trying to redefine himself within the Party as Centre-Left Wes, the smiling solutions-orientated pragmatist with a good heart and a great media presence.

He’s transparently ambitious. The media love him.

Which is where Gorton and Denton comes back into the picture. Farage’s Reform PLC are polling at something like 30% there, with their MAGAesque message of Immigrants Are Stealing Your Jobs, Kids and Futures!!! offering low-info/high-misinfo residents something performative and ugly to vote for, as opposed to the “You get fuck all for your vote and you should like it, pleb” shriek emanating from the tin-eared brass-necks over at newnewlabourinc’s campaign strategy garderobe. With Burnham as the Labour candidate, that could well have shifted hard. He’s popular, has a record he can point to, and due to the Party leadership’s well-trumpeted hostility to him he could campaign there as a Labour candidate with something different and new and meaningful to offer. They might not garner the 50% of the vote they got last time (never mind the 60%+ Corbyn’s Labour got in the area) but surely enough to keep the seat and deny Reform PLC victory in another historically Labour constituency. All the Labour Party’s NEC (National Executive Committee) had to do was vote to allow him to resign as Mayor so that he could stand.

So, of course, by an 8 to 1 vote of the NEC’s executive officers, they blocked him. Mahmood herself, sitting as NEC chair, and after telling the media that she thought Burnham would be a great addition to the Parliamentary team (that was a clue as to the eventual decision right there) abstained, but Starmer himself voted to block while Deputy Leader Powell was the only officer to vote yes. Politically, how fucking stupid is that? For all newnewlabourinc’s feral spokescreeps piously repeating to the media that “Andy is doing too good a job as Mayor” and “Oooooh, it would cost so much to hold another mayoral election”, it was made absolutely crystal clear in every anonymous briefing and off camera quote that newnewlabourinc’s one and only concern was in preventing Burnham from becoming an MP because then he could stand in the next leadership election, and would probably win. They actually seem to think that they can sell this as some kind of display of strength, when all anyone can actually see is pants wetting weakness. The McSweeney Tendency is so wedded to stamping out all potential threats to its grip on the Leader’s Office that they just came out and fucked that chicken right in front of the whole country. Fucksake, Starmer himself voted to block, when any half competent advisor would have been screaming at him to either abstain or even vote with Powell (“Look how little I fear potential rivals and how totally democratic we are when the Leader is just one vote amongst many”) but being Starmer, he just did as he was told by Morgan and faceplanted straight into a puddle of fail.

So now Der Starmerpartei get the worst of all worlds. Their candidate for the seat is immediately tarred (however unfairly) as Starmer-approved and is already coming under heavy social media assault from pro-Reform PLC trolls, the Green Party (who have already stated they’d be willing to work with a Burnham-led Labour Party, but not Starmer’s iteration) are polling second to Reform PLC and looking like the safest bet for tactical voters who want to repeat the success of Welsh voters in the recent Caerphilly Sennedd election by voting for the most electable non-Reform PLC candidate. It’s funny, the constant bleat out of Changed UK Labour that everyone who doesn’t want a Reform PLC Government has to vote for them as the only viable alternative turns into a garotte around their thin necks when their own enthusiastically courted unpopularity renders them terminally unviable. They’ll almost certainly lose the seat, and either hand the Greens a ton of welcome credibility or give Farage a boost at a time when his political franchise is struggling to explain how its claims of being the anti-Establishment choice jibe with the sudden influx of failed Tory ex-Ministers to its ranks and he himself is struggling to shake off entirely believable accusations of being a lifelong racist antisemite.

All this, because when the choice was between listening to large swathes of their own Party who want one of the few well-known Labour politicians with a positive approval rating back on the national stage arguing the progressive case for a Labour Government or denying Labour MPs and members even the vaguest hint that they would be allowed to replace Sir Keir Starmer with anyone other than a Rightwing candidate he personally approves of, Morgan ‘Twat’ McSweeney could and would only ever choose option two.

Once more, with feeling.

Morgan. You prick. How the hell do you still have a job?

 

Anyway, I’m cutting it short here. That’s way over two hours worth of ranting and I haven’t even touched on newnewlabourinc’s self-owns on the Budget, Trump, and its shameless shilling for the interests of the genocidal extremists running a certain Middle-Eastern country. Enough is enough. Hope this note helps you feel a little better about events in your own country, where you might have Faecal Fascism and the Steve Miller Bund running the show, but at least your non-fascists seem willing to put up a decent fight.

 

Guest Post – Tony Jay: Note From Brexitania: Early Winter of 2026 EditionPost + Comments (152)

Guest Post – Tony Jay – A Letter from Brexitania: The Tedium IS Their Message

by WaterGirl|  August 14, 20254:00 pm| 75 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Guest Posts, Open Threads, United Kingdom

It’s your lucky day – Tony Jay has a little something to say about what’s going on in Britain right now.

Looking for a short pictorial summary?

A LETTER FROM BREXITANIA

The Tedium IS Their Message

by Tony Jay

Bonjour, Colonial scum. Been a while since I inflicted one of these monologorrheas on you, hasn’t it? Apologies in advance for this shameless rejection of what less verbose beings call ‘editing’, but really, anyone who reads on past the title knows damned well what they’re in for when this particular rust-bucket chug-a-chugs into Jackal Bay, and anyone coming fresh and innocent to the dockside… I’m so, so sorry. Do you have a family or a household god our office could send some flowers to?

Anyway, did I hear someone asking what happened? No? Well, don’t worry, I’ll tell you anyway. Last November happened. That baffling studio-imposed rewrite of the previously quite mainstream PBS-style documentary series American Democracy – A Work of Slow Progress into this, hell, I don’t even know what you’d call it. Some kind of freaky Mel Gibsonesque apocalyptic snuff movie cum unerotic action thriller cum infomercial for why you should never mix strong psychotic medication into your cream and chive dip titled Amerikan Revolution II – Oligarchic Bugaloo? Well, whatever its tag, it kind of swung the tip of a polished jackboot right up my aft-quarters and detonated a bomb in the emotional sub-basement where I was storing whatever lingering confidence I still had in the future of liberal democracy. It left me kind of numb. Car crash numb. Thousand-yard stare and slowly close the door on your way out numb. Probably you know how that feels. Tingly. Kind of sick in the throat. You almost can’t breathe.

The only light left flashing on my control panel was a driving imperative to recoil from all forms of online engagement (by which I mean this den of iniquity and pet pics, the skin-melting spotlight of an actual social media presence just isn’t for me) and, instead, funnel my remaining energies into a highly esoteric training schedule culled from a series of mystical texts unearthed in the ruins of long-lost Opak-Re and available now, for a limited time only, on a site that I found while shopping for scratched Coldplay CDs and other things to fling at brick walls.  An exclusive offer that I was promised (IN ALL CAPS) would boost my mind and body to the very outer limits of human possibility (for only £49.99 plus packaging), remaking me into a fleshy weapon of lithe rectitude fit to prowl the neon-lit night fighting crime in conveniently spacious alleyways and inflicting life-altering injuries upon clearly deserving bastards for a therapeutic outcome. Brilliant, I thought. Let’s do that. In the event, it all lasted about twelve minutes, during which time I pulled a muscle in my hip doing a stretch and thought better of it. Vigilante cosplay is a young man’s game, and anyway, I’ve never looked at my best in tights. Well, not in my tights, anyway.

More below the fold.

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What I’m saying, in an uncharacteristically roundabout way, is that all of my bottles of fizzy vim had drained away into the sand and I was a million miles short of wanting to expose my raw nerves to all the pointless, preening toxicity of the boring old blame game, with its clamour of mulish certainties, foot-stamping victimitude and rude jostling for sole narrative authority. I was content just to live in the now. So, I did. Mostly. I’ve got a job I really enjoy (why did no one tell me such things existed?) that keeps me so busy I’ve even come to value the weekends again, and a lovely family who are always happy to see me. Also, if I’m going to be writing about good people facing down the forces of chaotic evil, I’d rather it be in a genre where I can at least envisage some kind of happy ending for them.

So, I did all that, and it helped. Then, after a while, I looked up and realised that the ever-present din of Shit They Are Pulling had stopped being too depressing to contemplate and once again become too annoying to ignore. Sure, in some ways it might be 1933 redux and 70+ million utter gobshites in the US with ONE SIMPLE FUCKING JOB THEY HAD TO DO have instead flipped a crusty middle finger to observable reality by serving up to the world a brain-addled mish-mash of Father Coughlin, Sequel Biff Tannen and a plate of gelatinous orange rinds, with a non-optional side order of the most venal shit-shovelers on the menu to blank-check his many imbalances, but realistically, what can I do about that? I’m not American. I didn’t vote for or against it, so I don’t have to live each day with the existential pain of knowing that I share a country with the kind of mental morlocks who’d much rather re-elect (not elect, fucking RE-ELECT) an openly malignant slurry of America’s worst mistakes to a position of Absolute Powah than suffer the castrating shame of being ruled over by a Vagina of Colour. I went through the British version of all that after 2019 and once was enough for me.

No, I thought, Spring is in the air, Liverpool FC are once again back on their perch as Champions of England, and the world is chock full of decent people trying to get to grips with how to fight back against the Darkness. In the greater scheme of things, what did I actually have to complain about?

Oh yeah. 80s-retro crapfashions, obligatory autotune, and British Politics.

Then again, I suppose if anything could bless you good people with a momentary distraction from the last two hundred plus days of unrelenting bullshit, it might just as well be stories of someone else’s country dashing blindly through the scrapheap of 21st century ideo-cultural malaise, catching its collective rumpy rucksack on the barbed wire fence of political misadventure, and being left howling like the man who mistook a drill-socket for a glory-hole while swinging inches above the snarling jaws of societal chaos and right-wing populism. Maybe, maybe not, but looking around the national playbox that’s all I’ve got, so set waffle receptors to maximum and crank open those bile bay doors, this chunky monkey has to vent.

Right. Now. Okay. Focus.

You may or may not recall that July 4th 2024 saw the UK electorate drag themselves away from Love Island and Homes Under The Hammer long enough to shamble on down to the polls and honour the spirit of American Independence Day by turfing out a bunch of pig-snouted Tory Royalists guilty of treating the rights of free men and women with contemptuous disinterest in favour of an ambitious coalition of lawyers, slaveowners and mercantile opportunists in the shape of The Corporate Franchise Opportunity Currently Trading Under The Name Of ‘The Labour Party’ (which I usually choose to refer to – because venomous shorthand amuses me –  as newnewlabourinc, or Hard Labour or Der Starmerpartei, or whatever other euphemism for Those Vile Twats suits my mood). A Party led – in a sense, but only in a sense – by that ghostly apparition of undignified wraithdom Sir Keir Starmer, a man so comically ill-suited to the role and demands of inspirational leadership that he needs a Peloton video and signed permission from three Party donors before he can wipe his own arse.

It’s doesn’t take a degree in any of the political sciences to note that an absolutely crushing Tory defeat in the last election was as inevitable as the drooler-in-a-wheelchair defence at a Weinstein sentencing. David ‘Pigfucker’ Cameron started that clock ticking back in 2010 when his Coalition Government imposed crippling austerity on a country still reeling from 2008’s Banker Bailout, and then by allowing his own Party’s lunatic Hard Right to use the 2016 Referendum on EU membership to shift responsibility for all of the damage the Tories had inflicted onto the EU and ‘The Foreigns’. Theresa ‘Grey-Bot’ May sped it up by continually shying away from a long overdue reckoning with her own Party’s out-of-control radicals and pointlessly dragging out the torture of Brexit ‘negotiations’ without ever being straight with the country about what these meant, an act of cowardice which, by the time she was ousted in 2019, left a great big populist shaped hole at the heart of the Conservative Brexit Project that only the most dishonest and grasping fantasists could hope to fill.

Yes ‘Boris’, you appalling floater, I’m talking about you, but not just you.

The catastrophic tri-disaster that ensued for the country, its relationships, its economy, and its overwhelmed sub-culture of politically based snark, finished the job, thanks to the 1-2-3 gut-punch of Flobalob Johnson, Lettuce Truss and Pinocchio Sunak leaving the idea of electing another Tory Government about as popular as thong-rot at a Burlesque festival. The clarion cry of this election, audible in every preceding by-election and opinion poll from Ultima Thule to Lyonesse, was ‘Anyone. Except the Tory’, and in hundreds of seats that’s exactly what the vote delivered. The brutal hammering they received was hailed by cheerleaders of the incoming newnewlabourinc regime as a sweeping mandate for the amorphous concept of ‘Change’ they’d campaigned on in place of any actual policies, but, as ever with the delusional group-masturbators of the Labour Right, their claims were a casserole of fishy offcuts and bovine excrement.

In reality, the pro-Right vote had been split between Sunak’s continuity Tories and the froggy, fag-smoking  fascism of Nigel Farage’s latest PR wheeze, a foreign funded, privately listed company branded as ‘The Reform Party’, selling the same boxed sets of white supremacy and misdirected resentment as his previous UKIP and Brexit Party vehicles, while newnewlabourinc itself, under the obsessive control-freakery of Starmer’s astonishingly unpleasant campaign chief Morgan McSweeney, was so laser-focussed on distancing itself from anything that actual Labour voters might get enthusiastic about that it had somehow managed to haemorrhage hundreds of thousands of votes from 2019’s ‘historically disastrous’ total, while still scraping by with slim pluralities of nose-holding tactical voters in enough seats to come out the other end with a ‘historical landslide’ on the lowest winning vote share since the 19th century.

To put that into numbers, our First Past The Post electoral system had spat out a result that transformed 33.7% of a turnout of 55.9% of eligible voters into 63.4% of seats in Parliament and 100% of political power. Which is ten tons of bollocks in a two-ton bag, but that’s the undemocratic system the traditional parties love too much to change, and it meant that Der Starmerparteicame into office with a majority so big that, in our Winner Takes It All system, there was technically nothing holding it back from doing whatever it wanted. All of its online fanbois had spent the period before and during the election haranguing naysayers and doubters with injunctions to “Wait and see what they do in office before you judge them”, whispering comforting lies about the leadership’s ever-so cunning plan to tiptoe and shimmy into Government without giving our rabid media any distracting scandals to splash all over the front pages, before dramatically whipping off their dull grey camouflage to reveal the tight rose-gold spandex of social-democratic saviours hidden underneath.

Just give them a chance, was the mantra. Hold your tongue, swallow the shit-sandwich, let them do what they have to do, because before they can change anything they simply must gain power. Well, they did. Complete and unchallengeable power, with a parliamentary majority twice as large as Flobalob’s 2019 ‘landslide’. Job done, can I start judging them now? No? How about in three months? No? Six? No? How about in a year? No again? What a surprise. Tell you what, Starmerfanz, here’s a tasty bag of salted dicks for you to chew on, now go sit in the corner, because, like most of the country, I’m tuning your bullshit out.

Cards on the table, I’ve never made any bones about my deep and abiding distain for Starmer and his entourage of sneering asset-strippers and backstabbing hypocrites, and I’m certainly not going to start now. I expected them to be terrible because that’s who and what they showed themselves to be before, during, and after their takeover of the Party, but even I’ve been left rocked back on my snazzy Cuban heels by the historic awfulness with which Hard Labour have gone about the business of, well, everything, but mainly anything to do with the vital political art of making large numbers of people want you to stay in power. From day one of newnewlabourinc’s first term in office since 2010, from the very moment their Party issued alarm clocks (donated in bulk by valued Party donors Lumen Corp) lit up with a rousing chorus of “Believe in Keir – Or Else”, you’d be forgiven for thinking that they were driven, collectively if not always individually, by an intense desire, a burning lust almost criminal in its ferocity, to make themselves as despised and distrusted as possible by every single compartmentalised sliver of British society other than the ones that everyone knows will never, ever, ever vote for them.

Say you’re a red-faced racist Gammon with a shotgun in the attic and Ebony/Intersex porn clogging up your hard drive, they’ll be right on over to butter your scones and service your Bentley. If you’re a sharp-suited Interface Element extruded by the AI mainframe of a foreign tech conglomerate or blood-soaked ‘defence’ manufacturer, they’ll tear down all the curtains and lay splayed on folds of Venetian velvet for your indecent pleasure. And if you’re one of the ethical abscesses looming shroud-wrapped behind a top-floor desk at one of the four or five venal slime-drips we call the popular British Press, oh lordy, they’ll give you their firstborns wrapped in the skins of their first loves and ask nothing in return except the opportunity to occasionally place their balls in your claws and their names and mugshots above front page PR paeans to the wisdom and profundity of whatever Four-Minute Hate is being slopped out to the reading masses this week.

But if you’re anyone else? Not me, of course, I’m just a dirty Lefty who believed them when they told me who they were and set my expectations accordingly, but if you were, say, a mildly progressive middle-class voter on the softy-leftish side of centre who’d been put off in 2019 by the Media’s reinvention of Corbyn as a blood-soaked Red Hitler, but then voted for that nice Sir Keir hoping that, now he’d successfully carried the symbolic Ming vase of Labour’s campaign across the highly polished floor of electoral danger, he would take the huge majority handed to him and prioritise policies that would make the country a better place to live? Ha! As if! Get back behind the yellow line and assume a submissive position, Commie agitator, and be thankful if a firehose of nothing is all you get. Don’t you know that every time you think a bad thought about Sir Keir a Tory goblin climbs through a window to steal a human child?

Sigh.

This is the problem I have with talking about the Starmerite version of Labour. It’s so easy chatting shit about Tories because that’s essentially what they’re for. The decision each of them made to be a Tory is like a genetic marker for a propensity towards generalised vileness in every field, especially greedy self-advancement and irredeemable moral turpitude. In essence, they’re just a bunch of anamorphic stereotypes; posh private school dumbos and dyed-blonde social climbers ashamed of their roots, corporate stooges parachuted into rural seats and second-generation immigrant ladder-pullers determined to prove to the Right people that they’re the Right kind of darkie. A mish-mash of humanoid awfulness revolving around the gravitational pull of an eternal truth – the Conservative Party is always going to be the natural Party of Government, because the extremely vested Interests who own the UK will always need a conservative Party to sell the maintenance of the status quo to the have-nots, and the deal is simple, as long as you wave the flag and bash the trots, you too can keep your nose in the trough and your misdeeds out of the papers long enough for your children’s children to be considered ‘good sorts’. That eternal truth might, finally, be going the way of all the other formally eternal truths that litter human history, but for this era of Tories, it remains the simple idea that informs their actions.

But Der Starmerpartei? The Labour Right? They’re a much sicklier mouthful of bad medicine. Their essence is a cross between an entryist sect and a contractual failsafe. An invasive parasite of a non-ideological ideology that has systematically colonised the vital organs of its host and assumed control over its executive functions by aggressively attacking any rival cognitive centres. The heirs to St Anthony B’Liar’s revelatory credo that The Great British Public had been conditioned for generations by the infotainment assets of the nation’s most entrenched Interests to have a very blinkered view of what an ‘electable’ Party of Government should look like and talk about, so should any Opposition stray too far left of wherever the Establishment’s Tory favourites sit at any given time, then The Great British Public simply wouldn’t be allowed to see them as anything other than dangerous extremists. Their version of Labour can exist quite comfortably in this scenario because it’s pitched as the ‘dull but nice’ guy in the toxic relationship that is British politics. Sure, that slutty bitch Veronica Voter will keep on jumping into the sack with bad guy Tobias Tory, but when she’s left broken hearted and STD-riddled for the ten thousandth time, she’ll always come crawling back to Lennie Labour for a couple of terms of boring, suburban normality before falling off the wagon and back onto the other guy’s pox-pocked funstick.

It’s a sad, self-hating way to sell yourself, but it does come with a guarantee of short windows of access to the perks of Government for people willing to play along, and it provides an opportunity for ambitious high-achievers who simply couldn’t cut it for one reason or another as Tory made-men to wet their beaks and sow the seeds of profitable future relationships with The Money. The Labour Party membership and an ever decreasing number of its MPs may see things differently, some of them may even see themselves as the heirs to a progressive tradition that has effected massive, positive changes in British society by taking on the entrenched power of the elite Establishment and telling it to go and fuck itself with a frozen balloon animal, but as fans of Starmer and the wider Labour Right will tell you over and over and over again, usually while in the process of making some huge political error that a blinded mole-rat in a backwards balaclava trapped at the bottom of a lightless pit in the sub-basement of Darkly Manor with a broken torch and Paint It Black playing at half speed while Goth kids dance melancholically around a pile of tear-streaked Sandman comics could see coming, that kind of naïve Gay 4 Ché Student Union thinking is just performative  ‘politics of protest’, while grown-ups (like them) understand that this is a conservative country full of greedy, selfish liars who might say they want tolerance, equity and top-quality public services, but will always reject paying for them as soon as a smooth bugger with a side parting utters the dreaded curseword ‘socialist’, and that’s just how things are supposed to be.

But to quote an observer who knew more than her fair share about how exploitative wankers operate, they would say that, wouldn’t they?

Now here, I’m cutting out about twenty paragraphs of bladed bile relitigating my opinion on how and why and with what assistance the Labour Right deliberately and with huge oodles of malice aforethought sabotaged any hope of ousting the Tories between 2016 and 2020 because Dog only knows I’ve said it all before and, frankly, I’m past caring whether or not some people feel the need to dispute the theory that 1 + 1 does indeed = 2 because Wilmer Sux or whatever. Discussing the right wing of the Labour Party makes me incoherently furious because they have – by force and deception – taken the only progressive mass-movement ever to challenge the power of the UK’s ruling elite off the table and replaced it with this hollowed-out husk of a relic, this ghastly vessel of painted skin stretched and pinned across a juddering framework of marrowless bones and bent paperclips, jerkily propelled over a field of screaming faces on wheels of malevolent greed, its tattered sails stitched together from broken promises and betrayed hopes catching the occasional gust of frustrated despair and grinding cruelty.

(Melodrama chip deactivated)

See? I simply cannot talk about these fuckers and the damage they’ve done to the cause of progressive politics in the UK without lighting my hair on fire and running around the parched fields of Toljaso Island toting a hungry scythe and crying out for blood and justice. Lives have been destroyed, communities deprived and wrecked, people have straight up died, all because an entire strain of ‘centre-left’ thinking has become so infested with factional spite that nothing in the world is more important to them than ‘owning the Trots’.

That’s not healthy, is it? So, I’ll just say this and move on.

These pus-swollen gonads and their midge-swarm of infinitely credulous defenders got where they are today because, when the choice before them was between a continuation of Tory Government or a Labour Party they didn’t control, they willingly fucked their Party over and made themselves into useful idiots for powerful Interests in the UK and abroad who shared their opposition to Britain having a leftwing Labour Government and were more than happy to help them burn the country down to prevent it. Shielded by a collusive media establishment with the same Teflon coating the Tories have enjoyed for eons, they had a five-year period where they were allowed to run riot across the political battlefields of post-Referendum Britain like rogue Medieval sell-swords with an indulgence from the Pope, leaving burnt fields and traumatised goats wherever they passed through. Nothing discrediting was ever allowed to stain their manufactured image of mature moderation, none of their skeletons were allowed out of the closet to impinge on the national consciousness, and every cynically dishonest yap emitted from their nethermouths was granted the unearned authoritative weight of a NYT Editorial and the cursory scrutiny typically given to a Walnut Kennedy infomercial about vaccines causing testicular discolouration in mice.

While they were waging their Unholy War to reclaim their Labour Party from the filthy Trots they were proffered a level of Establishment support and protection normally out of the question for anyone even nominally on ‘the Left’, and I think a lot of their current problems might stem from too many of them getting too used to playing the political game on Super Easy level. After the spine-jellying shock of 2017’s near thing, driving The Left out of mainstream political debate was the priority for a lot of otherwise incompatible groups, and the Labour Right were so richly rewarded for wielding their back-seeking knives without mercy or restraint that wasting time thinking about anything else, like what they’d actually do to fix the country if they stumbled backwards into power again, simply wasn’t on the to-do list (for most of them). But they did get into power again. They are the Government. The country is in undeniable need of genuine, radical change, and yet all this lot seem capable of dishing up is an endless Riverdance of Catastrophuckupery.

(head hits desk)

Right, let’s back up a bit. Put this in some context. What, exactly, have they done to earn this opprobrium? Why are they now posting opinion poll figures so dire that Starmer himself seems far happier tootling around the globe playing at international statesman than he does back here in the puddle of cold piss that is modern Britain?

Well, it goes like this.

In the run up to the Election, one of the things Starmer did to show how very mature and Westminster-attuned His Party (as Starmer charmingly refers to the 125-year-old Labour Party) had become was the recruitment of Sue Grey as his Chief of Staff. Those with good memories might remember Grey as the long-term Civil Service fixer whose hi-profile investigation into Flobalob’s Covid-Era partying at Number 10 never quite blew the tubby waster out of the Big Chair, but it did a lot to grease the wheels that churned him towards the exit. People were annoyed that she refused to pull the trigger, but no one who had followed Grey’s career should have been at all surprised that her priority was finessing the problem rather than tackling the root cause. Her speciality was always helping Ministers and their staffs negotiate the complex Whitehall/Westminster System in such a manner that the right secrets got kept and the wrong people took the blame for any distressing fallout. Appointing her his COS over the squeals of the Tories at once displayed strength in a way the Media understood and signalled to the Interests that His Party would not be rocking any of their boats. As COS she reportedly took a tight grip on Starmer’s office and started prising The Hollow Man out of the sweaty grip of the coterie of young, ball-swinging lads-in-suits McSweeney had established as his Praetorian Guard, controlling access to the PM and beginning the process of retooling the cogs and wheels of a fractious political machine into something that slotted into the well-worn grooves of British Government.

Civil-Wars in virgin-field Governments tend to slow-burn into conflagration, this one went up like Casey Kasem’s wig in direct sunlight. McSweeney was NOT a happy chappie, and so the leaks started almost instantly. The Media were soon gobbling down leaks that Grey (a woman!) was paid more than her Boss (a man!) but the inciting event was the revelation that Starmer – always appreciative of the good things in life his lofty status entitled him to – had been ‘gifted’ clothes, accommodation, VIP tickets and even designer glasses by wealthy Labour Party donors and seemed to think that because he’d belatedly declared his receipt of Rich List largesse, no one of importance could possibly consider it an issue.

As has so often been the case with this leadership team, what Sir Keir considers appropriate and uncontroversial is not in the same hemisphere as the opinions of other, warmer-blooded life forms, like, for example, the middle-of-the-road swing voters who had believed his ever-so-sincere promises about restoring probity and dignity to public office in the wake of Tory sleaze. And of course, it was red meat to a News Media only too happy to play the Both Sides card now that the country was safely in the hands of comfortably Centrist careerists. The craziest thing was that this was all in the wake of the scandals about Flobalob accepting gifts from rich donors, something he’d been endlessly (and rightly) castigated for by Starmer’s team. The very clear link between accepting ‘gifts’ from wealthy patrons in return for a welcoming ear and future ennoblement had been made in the minds of the public, so for them to turn around and dismiss concerns as confected nonsense was just the first warning that the Labour Right’s infamous tin ear for advice it didn’t want to listen to was in full effect.

Grey got the blame for allowing the scandal to blow-up, which added to the leaks from McSweeney’s team about how controlling and power-hungry she was (projection being a well-thumbed card in the Labour Right deck) was enough to make her position untenable, so Starmer took McSweeney’s advice and replaced her with… McSweeney! I know!! Proper Dick ‘Dick’ Cheney vibes there. The fallout from all these behind closed doors shenanigans was that newnewlabourinc’s first faltering steps in power were being orchestrated, not by a long-tenured veteran of the wood-panelled back rooms and well-trodden corridors of power, but by an angry Irish chaos-monkey with a pathological hatred of The Left and an entirely inflated view of his own genius. Everything that newnewlabourinc has done in office since this mini-coup has been guided by the McSweeney credo that Blair didn’t go far enough in acknowledging the privileges of the Haves, and that if ‘Labour’ wanted to be in power for any extended period of time, they had to do two things – show the Establishment that they were its only defence against a progressive Left, and position themselves to the electorate as the only viable option on the polling card other than out-and-out fascism.

And so, it began. Badly.

As soon as the close-packed berserkers of Der Starmerpartei’s victorious horde swarmed off the decks of their corporate-branded war-galleys and into Parliament’s legislative firing-ranges, their mission statement seems to have been to grab the nearest blunderbuss and start blasting away at their own feet, because that’s what they did. As time has gone on and natives of central London have become inured to the frequent rain of smoking toes, the only thing that has changed has been the calibre and rapidity of the self-inflicted barrage d’pied.

Pretty much the first major thing they did in office was to announce to a nation desperately hungry for some kind of positive change that they intended to end the Winter Fuel Allowance, a couple of hundred-pound seasonal bump to all pensioners introduced by Labour under Gordon Brown to help old people not die of hypothermia over Christmas. It always should have been tapered to exclude richer pensioners who actually don’t need it (not the brick and stone ‘millionaires’ who just happen to live in houses with exploded resale values thanks to our insane housing market, but the real cash rich ones) but since it was always intended as a fudge to avoid third-railing about with the state pension, that didn’t happen.

There could, of course, have been discussion and debate, a well-thought-out media campaign to sell the public on the rationality and fairness of making sure only poor pensioners got the WFA as part of a wider message about reallocation of public funds according to need, but that would have been too ‘progressive’, too ‘Lefty’ for these buffoons. They just made the announcement, told everyone how inspirationally amazing they were for making these ‘tough but necessary decisions’, paused expectantly for the required applause to start… and then reacted to the tidal wave of public shock and outrage with the kind of snippy, dismissive ugliness that is the hallmark of the Labour Right and its online defenders. All pensioners were now relabelled as presumed millionaires who spent their WPA funds on foreign hollibobs and expensive cookware, greedy parasites sucking on the teat of ‘working families’, which is an absolutely astounding way for those supposedly hyper-efficient mavens of electoral realism running newnewlabourinc’s comms to insult the most reliable voting group in the country, but given that they’re actually a circlejerk of solipsistic focus-groupies with all the political nous of that guy who stands on a box at Speaker’s Corner dressed like the Childcatcher and holding up a sign reading ‘ASK ME ABOUT MAN/BOY LOVE’, it’s entirely in character, because after the backlash got too loud and painful, they were forced to announce a fucking U-turn! WFA payments would be restored, with those given to pensioners with an income of over £35.000 getting clawed back in tax – which is exactly the solution opponents of the cuts suggested before they ever went through, but Starmer’s coterie of powder-sniffing vein-poppers refused to even consider.

Because. They. Are. Knobheads! (incoherent howling of frustration)

It’s been more of the same ever since. If there’s an issue on the agenda crying out for kindness, newnewlabourinc have always chosen to be cruel. Like when the Scottish National Party introduced an amendment in Parliament that would have removed the Two Child Cap that limits child support payments to families on benefits to the first two children, a decade old Tory policy that has been proven to drive families deep into poverty and to keep them there, in the process costing the country something like £39 billion actual pounds in order to ‘save’ £1.3 billion in benefits, Starmer’s goons just decried it as a partisan political trap to embarrass The Leader and ordered all Labour MPs to vote against it. When seven decent Labour MPs did find the moral courage to represent their constituents by voting for the SNP’s amendment, they were immediately punished by having the whip removed, meaning they were suspended from being Labour MPs and had to sit as Independents. Some of them have since been given the whip back, but other haven’t and simply never will.

That kind of thing just doesn’t happen in proper democratic parties. Even in Blair’s day, MPs were allowed to vote their conscience as long as it wasn’t a vote the Government could lose, but the control freaks running Hard Labour under Starmer couldn’t see past another opportunity to make ‘tough decisions’ and punch down at the few left-wing MPs they hadn’t managed to expel from the Party. Once again, the needless cruelty of it all went down like a cup of cold sick, and newnewlabourinc reacted in the same way, attacking critics as naïve idiots who just didn’t understand grown-up politics, and defending the policy itself using language that could have been (and thanks to their reliance on ChatGPI, probably was) cribbed from Heritage Foundation press releases.

Back when they were in Opposition, and during Starmer’s own abysmally dishonest leadership campaign, the injustice done to the WASPIs (Women Against State Pension Inequality) was something Labour were definitely going to redress. It wasn’t a manifesto promise, but candidate after candidate – including Sir Say-Anything himself – lined up for photo ops with the WASPIs and were eager to associate themselves with their cause. Basically, the passage of the Pensions Act by the Tory/Lib-Dem Coalition in 2011 meant that a lot of older women born in the 1950s would have their pension plans thrown into chaos by the rapid introduction of pension-age equivalence, and report after report has concluded that they were given insufficient guidance and support by the Government, leaving them financially robbed.

So, of course, once they were in a position to actually do something about it, the Brainless Trust in charge of newnewlabourinc proudly announced that they were, once again, ‘making the tough decision’ to renege on their election promises and leave the WASPIs with nothing. Same post-betrayal rulebook came out. The WASPIs were smeared as greedy and feckless wenches who wanted decent taxpayers to foot the bill for their refusal to do due diligence, anyone disputing the latest underbussing was, since helping the WASPIs had been part of the 2019 Labour manifesto, dismissed as a Corbynite wrecker, and/or a Tory enabler (those terms being pretty much interchangeable for the bots stationed at newnewlabourinc’s Brown House) because the need for flashbang-bright projection and a slight variation on Cleek’s Law seem to be surgically imprinted into the brains of Starmer’s team during the same process that sees ethical conscience and the ability to learn from mistakes consigned to the chum bucket.

Like me, it just goes on and on and on.

A particularly egregious example, and the one (other than supporting genocide in Gaza) that’s done them the most damage, is the announced ‘reforms’ to the eligibility criteria for the Personal Independence Payment, changes that newnewlabourinc tout as saving £5 billion a year in ‘waste’ in return for £1 billion in funds to ‘help disabled people find work’. Short version, disabled people in the UK have already had their support payments cut to the bone and been forced to jump through hoops for what they do receive. The PIP is a benefit that is supposed to support disabled people who are already in work to stay in work. A disabled-friendly car? Help with electricity payments to charge your wheelchair or breathing equipment? Money to hire a carer to help you get dressed and at work on time? That kind of thing. The new eligibility criteria Hard Labour were planning would require applicants to score 4 points just once on a questionnaire, except everyone who had seen the new criteria said it would be basically impossible for most disabled people to score 4 points in any of the categories. So, in actuality, the changes would mean millions losing their PIP payment, and with it their ability to live independently and function in the workplace. Throwing productive working people onto the Dole, which is the opposite of what they still insisted was the purpose of the ‘reforms’.

But even more insidious than that, eligibility for PIP is effectively a passport to a ton of other benefits. Making it impossible to qualify for PIP is a backdoor method of making swinging cuts to the disability budget without admitting you’re making cuts. Don’t have to pay out for benefits no one can claim, do you? High-Fives all around. Sure, lots of people will die and the country will end up paying a lot more in unemployment benefits and medical treatment for the millions forced out of work, but that’s a problem with a similar Cut and Slice solution, isn’t it?

Once again, when disabled groups and charities and anyone with a conscience said that this Bill was the very epitome of a false economy and to disability rights what the Coldplay kiss-cam is to the expectation of discrete infidelity, the kneejerk newnewlabourinc response was to attack the disabled as greedy leeches, lie about what the policy did, and then, when the scale of the discomfort on the Labour benches skyrocketed with over 120 MPs saying they were going to vote for an amendment that would basically kill the planned Bill stone dead, a plunge into high-handed arrogance with Starmer, in his trademark unbearable nasal monotone, delivering a sneering dismissal of opposition as ‘Noises Off’, a theatrical term meaning unimportant offstage sounds that the important actors in any performance have to be professional enough to ignore.

Maybe it was this encapsulation of the withering contempt Starmer’s inner circle of callow young murgatroyds have for Labour’s MPs that broke the camel’s back in twelve places, because by the next news cycle Party whips were in a blind panic over how resolute the ‘No Fucking Way’ camp were. Meetings with the Work & Pensions Minister were offered, but they went so well that more MPs threatened to sign on to the amendment. Anonymous spokescreeps around Number 10 started threatening that they would consider the vote on the amendment to be a de facto confidence vote on Starmer’s leadership, so even more MPs let it be known they were considering signing on to the amendment. In the end, they had to strip more or less everything out of the Bill that the rebels didn’t like – pushing any changes off to a later date and only after some kind of to-be-confirmed consultation and advice period – in order to reduce the rebellion to manageable numbers and get something passed, but it was a humiliation on every level.

This disaster encapsulated everything that is driving disgust with newnewlabourinc. Bad policy that punches down on the weakest. Tone-deaf comms that are always pitched arrogant and clueless. A Plan A of threats and bullying, then when that fails to work, an uncoordinated collapse as they all look around the cabinet table at each other and realise that there actually is no Plan B, this is all they have. The habitual ‘all resistance is punishable by expulsion’ brutality that they were allowed to get away with when it was aimed at non-Starmerite Party members and elected officials simply wasn’t fit for purpose any more, not now that the formerly cowed legions of centrally selected Labour MPs all had mailbags bulging with angry voter commentary and were looking down the barrel of electoral wipeout at the next election if they didn’t put a stake through the heart of PIP ‘reform’. So, Der Starmerpartei got the worst of both worlds – they forced through gutted reforms that saved no money (which was their main selling point), and trashed Labour’s reputation with millions of disabled and disabled-adjacent voters, and for what? So that Morgan McSweeney wouldn’t have to admit he’d fucked up? Again!

Now, before we go any further, let’s get one thing clear. Everybody and their maiden aunt knew going into the last election that fourteen years of Tory austerity and corruption had left the country face down and drowning in a financial riptide that would take some rough swimming to get out of. You couldn’t not know it, since “£22 billion blackhole in the public finances!!” was all you ever heard from Rachel Reeves, newnewlabourinc’s then Shadow-Chancellor (now Chancellor, in charge of The Treasury) whenever she was asked what, exactly, newnewlabourinc planned to do about it that was different from the Tories or, you know, maybe a bit better? And it’s true. Years of austerity and decaying infrastructure, added to the suicidal throat-cutting of Brexit, added to the bill for Covid, added to the industrial-scale one-way suction pumps successive Tory (and Tory-Lite) Governments have fitted to the public purse for the benefit of private corporations, the UK is a LOT poorer than it was a decade ago. Cuts will have to be made. But what cuts? Whose ox gets gored? That’s the question. Would it be the undertaxed millionaires and billionaires who have seen their wealth skyrocket since the Credit Crisis? Or would it be the little people? The ones with the least to give and the least chance of bending the right ear at the right meeting or backroom party at DAVOS? Mmmmmnnnn. Now let me think, what kind of person is Rachel Reeves?

A joyless energy-vampire and foot-shuffling fan of bands like The Market Is God and Silence In The Prole Pens, Reeves was selected by the donors and lobbyists ‘advising’ Starmer to spearhead newnewlabourinc’s fast-paced ideological redeployment away from the previous leadership’s centre-left, worker-centred, moderate progressivism and towards a more ‘grown-up’ embrace of budget-cutting, down-trickling, philo-corporatist orthodoxy not too dissimilar from that of pre-Brexit Tory Governments. And redeploy she did. Hard Labour would no longer be, in Reeves’ own words, ‘the party to represent those who are out of work’, but ‘the party of Growth and Opportunity’, because there’s nothing in the world the Labour Right loves more than offering zero-downside financial incentives to rooms full of nice-smelling Business Leaders with cold eyes and predatory smiles, and nothing it despises more than the smelly scroungers and lazy layabouts of the Urban Working Classes with their perpetual pleas for more and bigger handouts that they’d only spend on fripperies like food and rent and clothing for their granny-mugging spawn.

Still, say what you like about her ideological biases, no one could ever deny that Reeves had the gravitas and credibility to underpin her faith in the untapped potential of private finance, given that she was, according to her CV, a former Senior Economist at the Bank of England and Halifax Bank of Scotland with years of high-level experience guiding the flows and surges of financial…. (checks notes) oh, hang on a minute, no, sorry, there must have been some kind of perfectly understandable administrative error in the processing of Ms Reeves’ CV, because in reality, it turns out she was just a former graduate scheme entrant at the Bank of England and then a customer service manager at Halifax Bank of Scotland in the run up to 2008’s global banking crash. Still, who better to run herd on the rabid beasts of the City of London than someone whose job it had been to advise people on issues around their mortgages between 2006 and 2009, eh? Especially when that someone had lost their job (Ed – Ahem!) sorry, had taken voluntary redundancy from that job by mutual agreement in a decision that had nothing at all to do with her being one of three senior managers under investigation for taking the piss with expenses claims so extravagant that even HBOS thought they crossed the line.

In the banking world.

In 2009.

So, yeah, that’s who Rachel Reeves is.

Anyway, while Starmer himself has been moulded by McSweeney into the outlet for a lot of the terrible shit newnewlabourinc have flushed onto the country, Reeves has, if anything, outdone him in the lavatorial sourcing stakes. Her mantra from the start has been Growth = Future Recovery, based on the idea that the Tories had so thoroughly denuded the public finances that any long-term upturn in spending could only come after a period of belt-tightening and reorganisation to make the UK more attractive to private investment. In other words, if the UK wanted nice things in the future, it just needed to do what all the hot, young countries were doing these days; powder its cheeks, raise its hemlines and go shake its booty on the street corners where Mr Job Creator and friends go looking for short-term company. A very familiar line, sure. There are old cassette tapes of it being droned out in the same management-speak monotone at corporate funded business conferences from 50 years ago, but it’s how she’s gone about it that has left economists baffled and many figures in the wider Party shaking their heads. Austerity and performatively cruel cuts for the ones who have the least, tongue baths and the deepest respect for those who have the most. If the last forty years have taught us anything (other than you pretty much can lie to all the people all the time if you have enough money, and that fruit does not belong on pizza) it’s that that particular spreadsheet will never balance.

Reeves isn’t the only member of the Cabinet to give off distinct Peter Principal vibes. She may hold the purse strings, and her ‘iron-clad fiscal rules’ may be the tightening noose around the throat of public spending, but there are plenty of other Ministers all too eager to make their bones showing how ‘moderate’ they are by being as cruel and dismissive to non-VIPs as they can. Two in particular really get my billy goat very gruff indeed.

The PIP changes and other cuts to disability benefits are the life’s work of lizard-brained nightstalker Liz Kendall, a double-dipped acolyte of the Cult of St B’Liar the Toothsome whose 2015 campaign to be Labour Party leader was so cartoonishly right-wing that she only received a humiliating 4% of the vote. Her campaign manager in that debacle was the same Morgan McSweeney whose billionaire-funded Labour Together grouping would later become the binding-force and command centre of first the ‘Destroy Corbyn’ project, and then its ‘Choose Starmer, Choose Lies’ and ‘Ain’t No Party Like A Purged Party’ successors, before becoming Starmer’s Chief of Scat. Kendall’s 2015 campaign had proven her to be so out-of-step with Labour Party feeling and unappealing to actual Labour Party members that Starmer, when he was finally in a position to make good on his own leadership election promises to ‘unite the Party’, just had to stick finger number elebenty-billion in the eye of Those Dirty Lefties by appointing her Work and Pensions Minister. Getting someone as gleefully repugnant as Kendall to present the ‘moral case’ for denouncing the disabled as workshy frauds who just need to be tipped out of their wheelchairs and ‘incentivised’ through the workhouse gates with whips and tasers was always going to be vomit-worthy, but it takes a special kind of diamond-plated effrontery for the millionaire wife of a former Merrill-Lynch banker to stand outside Number 10 affirming the desperate need for benefit cuts while flashing a watch that, at its cheapest, retails for more than the average PIP claimant would lose in a year if her cuts took place. That’s newnewlabourinc in a nutshell, though. Arrogant. High-Handed. And as prickish as Fergus the Fifty Phallussed Penisaur in the final round of the Jurassic Jerk-Off Championships.

The high-profile Health Ministry, with its control over the NHS, went to Wes ‘Utter Twat’ Streeting, another testicle-headed graduate from the Peter Mandelson School of Griftcraft and Complicity who came to prominence acting as the squeaking front-arse of the anti-Corbyn media campaign, always just a phone-call away when Fleet Street needed a ‘moderate Labour MP’ to validate their latest antisemitism smear, and he traded that exposure, plus a tight relationship with the moneymen behind McSweeney’s Labour Together and the Trump-friendly ‘Blue Labour’ lobby group, into a secure Cabinet posting within knifing distance of Starmer’s back. Imagine a sly fart in a crowded lift being given a tailored suit and the face and voice of an 18th century Earl’s overindulged bastard son, that’s Streeting, and he’s currently the blue-eyed boy of the faction that wants to replace the Tories as the de facto Party of the Centre Right. As Health Minister he’s brought with him a snot-trail of ties to Peter Thiel’s Palantir and a range of US Healthcare corporations, along with a ‘unique’ management style built on attacking the very concept of a taxpayer-funded health service, smearing its overworked staff for the failures of upper management, turning a blind eye to the huge profits being made by private companies chosen to fill gaps in the NHS’ crumbling infrastructure, accusing junior-doctors of holding the country to ransom for demanding the wage hikes he’d already agreed to, and dismissing the ongoing mental health crisis with an airy handwave about “an epidemic of over-diagnosis”. The only fly in Wes’ mercury-based skin ointment is the fact that he only barely held on to his Ilford constituency in the last election, coming within a few hundred votes of being unseated by a pro-Palestinian Independent candidate, and his popularity hasn’t exactly kept pace with his public visibility in the year since. Come the next election, whether he’s still at Health or has been installed as Starmer’s replacement, Wes will either have had to find another seat to squat in or take advantage of the Government’s brutal anti-protest laws to jail any potential opponents, because his shiny, round, dead-eyed face is on the target list of a whole range of groups who see him for the soulless bottom-feeder he truly is.

Yuck. I feel dirty just writing about those two. I swore only to use my typing finger for good and now look at me. What a fraud I turned out to be.

Anyway, it’s not just newnewlabourinc’s catalogue of nasty cuts or its Cabinet full of Monster of the Week cast-offs that have made re-election a toss-up. It’s their wider platter of right-lurching policy decisions, some revolving around money, some around principles, or their lack of them, but mostly revolving around the likes and dislikes of the very narrowly structured focus groups of ‘hero voters’ (three fat, white drunks from a Wetherspoons pub in Folkestone, by all appearances) that Labour Together relies on to keep the Party steering firmly rightward. Even when the policy itself is something popular enough to garner a lot of bi-partisan and pan-factional support, they either can’t resist the temptation to load it up with toxicity or they just plain want to make the rest of the world gobble down a shit-sandwich.

Take Ukraine, for example. Everyone but the Putin-fondlers over in Reform wants to see them lay the Russian Bear out flat and secure their freedom, and with President Putin-fondler over there in Washington squirting tantrum-juice into everyone’s eyes the urgency has ratcheted up a lot of notches. Taking on more responsibility for directly supporting Ukraine? Check. Reaching out to European allies to establish a solid pro-Ukrainian coalition? Check. Wrapping the whole shebang up in nauseating flag-waving militarism, using it as an excuse to pay tribute spend billions on buying tactical nuclear weapon platforms from Trump’s America, and funding it all with brutal cuts to the foreign aid budget? That’s the kind of Ra-Ra, let’s make the foreigns cry ugliness that went out of fashion with Flobalob, but that’s newnewlabourinc, always refighting the last war with their weapons cocked and pointed down the front of their own pants.

Trans-rights? Same tack taken. After that steeply fallen icon (whose full name is, serendipitously, an anagram of ‘A Long Wanker Line, Then Jo’) and her fellow X-chromosome goons in the Sorority of Intolerant Scolds for Trans Exclusion and Removal from Society lost a couple of legal cases where they claimed that the terms ‘woman’ and ‘sex’ in the Equality Act referred only to Women just like them, the Dark Lady’s expensive lawyers took it all the way to the UK Supreme Court, which gave them the win they wanted. The Court’s judgement was that when the Act was passed in 2010 no one was in any doubt about what was meant by ‘woman’, which I’m sure came as a surprise to the many, many trans people who were alive and living as their proper gender in that far-off Antediluvian epoch, and definitely came as a surprise to the people who actually advised on the drafting of the Act. We know that because they said so, pity the Court never thought to ask them. Eh?

Nevertheless, that was the judgement. Combine it with the ‘greased pig out of a water-slide’ rapidity with which Baroness Kishwer Falkner, noted transphobe and the Flobalob-appointed head of the Equality and Human Rights Commission moved to demand that every single public and private body in the country immediately start interpreting the judgement to mean that Women’s toilets were now high-security zones from which anyone who failed to pass a biological spot-check had to be excluded on threat of future legal action, it was enough to give Der Starmerpartei licence to drop the act and sidle gracelessly towards the retrograde side of yet another Kulturwar issue. Starmer was straight out of the gate thanking the Court for bringing ‘much needed clarity’ to the issue and doing a textbook 180 on his previous ‘deeply held beliefs’ by insisting that he’d always believed that only biological women were women.

‘Clarity’ was the buzzword all of His Ministers were ordered to use when talking to the Media, which, of course, got them into all kinds of trouble when they were asked some of the obvious questions, like, could you explain what was supposed to happen to trans men now? Were they supposed to use women’s toilets? How did this square with the claim that women needed to be protected from ‘men’ invading their toilets? Would they have to ‘prove’ themselves to be a biological sex they didn’t belong to? What was to stop a predatory Cis male from going into a women’s toilet and claiming to have been born a woman? Where, exactly, was this ‘Clarity’, and did the Government, which claimed to be supportive of Trans rights, plan to amend the Equality Act to add language specifically acknowledging Trans women as women so they wouldn’t be put in the horrible position of using Male toilets or pissing themselves in public?

Cue the inevitable bulging eyes and panicked gobbling as Minister after Minister ran smack bang into the hard contradiction at the black heart of the newnewlabourinc project. You can pander to the biases of the revanchist Right in a fruitless quest for a new voter base or you can promote the policies of the progressive Left voters your Party is supposed to represent, you can’t do both, not without looking like a hypocritical moron. Every time a stiffly uncomfortable Starmerpartei mouthpiece tried to push the scripted line that everything was just fine and there was no gulf between what the Government was saying and observable reality, it just made the people living in that reality frustrated and angrier. The Right didn’t really want women ‘protected’ from mythical pre-op rapists, they wanted the Trans community tagged, targeted and turned into an Other they could eternally save the country’s easily corrupted children from. While the side demanding inclusion, equality and all those other things that are part and parcel of building a better society, were under no obligation to pretend that Hard Labour were being anything other than mealy-mouthed cowards who should be absolutely ashamed of themselves for leaving the Trans community out to dry.

It was the uproar on the progressive side, and not any action by Starmer’s Government, that led to the EHRC backing off from its initial slavering haste to ostracise Trans people and belatedly agree that a period of consultation – in which Trans voices would actually be included this time – was a necessary prerequisite before any legal guidance was actually issued. Yet again, the cunning überbrains over at newnewlabourinc central had stuck the Party’s head into a beehive looking for the sweet, sweet honey of Reform-curious votes and came out with nothing to show for it but a faceful of stings and a near-fatal case of anaphylactic shock.

On Immigration? Same depressing story, familiar to anyone who’s been paying a modicum of attention to the how and the why and the who of the world’s current ‘glass half-full of Santorum’ condition. Far-Right billionaire-fuelled troll-farms have been helping Farage’s Reform Party with its 5 MPs (oops, no, now it’s only 4, turns out they’re not so hot at the whole ‘don’t recruit barely civilised slugs with fascist-tourettes’ thing) by flooding social media with cut-and-paste horror stories of strapping young bucks of military age coming over here on ‘The Boats’, being handed the keys to luxury penthouse suites in 4-star hotels, monopolising all of our goods and services to leave nothing but scraps for ‘traditional’ British people to fight over, imposing Sharia Law on whole cities and forming predatory rape-gangs that roam around the unpoliced no-go areas targeting innocent British virgins to the alien sounds of the muezzin’s plaintive call.

You’d think that a confident, centre-left Government with a huge majority and an official Opposition as astonishingly badly led as Kemi Badenoch’s Tory Party (don’t get me started, that’s a 20,000 word extended gulp of disbelief all on its own) would hop, skip and jump at the opportunity to tell the Public that they’ve been lied to about all of this since Brexit, wouldn’t you? That criminal gangs are only able to exploit the people who risk their lives to come over here on small boats because of the Brexit Farage campaigned for. Or that none of these people are ‘illegal migrants’, but rather asylum seekers who have had all of their legal routes to entry – and the concomitant facilities for processing their claims handled quickly – slammed shut by the Tories. Or that without immigration the goods and services the British people rely on to eke out their existences in Austerityland would crumble overnight. Or that the Right’s recent obsession with ‘Asian paedo grooming gangs’ is just dog-whistling racism and frantic squirrel-waving to draw attention away from the fact that the vast majority of child sexual abuse in this country is carried out by white family members or white, wealthy pillars of the Establishment. Or that the UK would be immeasurably better off if we just acknowledged what a disaster Brexit has been and started the process of reconnecting our economy with this massive captive market on our doorstep.

You’d expect that. But since this is only a proper, centre-left Government in the same way that Dean Cain is a paragon of Truth, Justice and The American Way (fictionally), you’d be advised not to hold your breath too long waiting for it. Instead, what we’ve had is everyone from Sir Starmer the Concerned Llama on down the pecking order validating Reform’s obsession with The Immigration Crisis by bleating on and on about how very tough Hard Labour are being on ‘illegals’ and how much tougher they can be if that’s what their focus-groups want. Rather than defend human decency, they’ve capitulated to Reform’s demands for pointless inquiries into how rapey the browns are that, let’s face it, Farage will just dismiss as a fake-news cover-up anyway when the conclusions don’t suit his need for outrage, and they simply won’t talk about Brexit other than as something that they’ve got to ‘respect’ and ‘make work’. Instead of pulling MI5 off their ‘infiltrate dangerous Lefty pacifist groups’ missions and unleashing them against the well-funded bastards busy poisoning the minds of hundreds of thousands with straight-up Race War porn, Hard Labour prefer to see the ‘totally valid concerns’ of brainwashed white rioters who want to murder asylum seekers as a political opportunity for them to open up murky blue water between themselves and the Party’s hippy-dippy past.

Starmer himself, always on the lookout for a rake to step on, stunned a lot of his most obdurately loyal defenders in the Church of the Ever Moving Centre with a frankly disastrous speech on the topic in May, when he channelled the corrosive poison of Enoch Powell’s ‘River of Blood’ rhetoric from the 1960s into a Party Political Broadcast for the Reform Party. Jaws dropped when he warned that mass immigration risked us becoming an ‘Island of Strangers’, attacked immigrants for not integrating into British culture, spoke of recent immigration as ‘a squalid chapter for our nation’ that had done ‘incalculable damage’, and promised to ‘take back control’ of our ‘open borders’.

If you’re unfamiliar with Powell and his shameful place in British history, imagine if a Democratic President gave a speech on ‘The Border’ that contained language directly echoing Governor Wallace’s ‘Segregation Now. Segregation Tomorrow. Segregation Forever’ speech. That’s the kind of timeless original Starmer was riffing off. Being as obdurately incompetent as they are, Hard Labour’s comms team responded to the outrage by sending Sir Pirouette d’Flipflop back out there to defend his choice of language and tut-tut at anyone claiming he could possibly have been echoing one of Britain’s most famously divisive racists. Then, when that didn’t win the news cycle, they tried throwing the speechwriters under the bus, because it’s quite believable that anyone with a political bone in their body could have written, edited or delivered a speech on Immigration using that language without one of them thinking, “Hang on, are we sounding a bit like the Baddies here?”. Eventually, as has so often been the case since Hard Labour took power, Starmer had to change tack and sort of half acknowledge he’d fucked up by saying how much he regretted giving nasty people an opportunity to misinterpret his totally non-divisive words, but as has so often been the case since they took power, the damage to their credibility was already well and truly done.

Now, I get it, sort of. The McSweeney/Blue Labour roadmap for the transformation of Labour into a centre-right Party requires a seismic shift in its traditional positioning on issues like this. They calculate they can take Immigration away from the Right as a vote-winning issue by re-making Hard Labour into the Party of closed borders and hostility to Illegals, and if this offends and drives away Labour’s minority support – well, great, they’re all smelly Lefties whose aggressive swarthiness puts off ‘traditional working-class voters’ (wink wink) anyway. They think they can step right over the broken mess of Badenoch’s Tory Party and park their tanks directly on Reform’s lawn, promoting Farage’s openly fascist Volkspartei as Hard Labour’s main opposition in order to consolidate the split on the Right, while earning enough anti-immigrant credibility of their own to force Farage and his supporters into increasingly nutty xenophobic claims that might appeal to some uneducated white communities and the Yaxley-Lennon fringe, but will turn off millions of former Tories who are ‘concerned’ about immigration, but don’t currently feel all that comfortable with the idea of concentration camps and lynchings, leaving Der Starmerpartei the default option in enough marginal seats for them to scrape back in at the next Election. The doubters remaining in Hard Labour’s mushy middle will either jump ship or will see that newnewlabourinc really doesn’t need the Left to stay in office, and most importantly, the UK stays on the right side of the people who have all the money and power.

Purely as an exercise in political theory, I can see where they’re coming from, but in the real world I think they’re wrong on a level alongside whoever is advising Sydney Sweeney. They might not think that Farage has the special sauce to maintain his Party’s current polling lead for the next four years (yes, that’s right, a year into their glorious reign Hard Labour are polling well behind the UK version of MAGA) and they might not think that the rump Tories have it within themselves to recover while nutters like Badenoch are the best they can offer, and they might even be right about that right about now, but let’s not forget, THIS. IS. ENGLAND! Only five short years ago Alexander Boris De Pfeffel Johnson was King of all he surveyed and the apple of the Media’s eye, firmly in place for a decade of jolly fun and frivolity. The fluid cultural shifts now underlying British politics can change the rules really bloody quickly, and once a Government’s popularity goes down the pan, the Opposition doesn’t need to be Pedro Pascal in a powder blue suit sitting across from you on a moonlit balcony to seem a more attractive option, they just need to have a pulse and to not be the sitting Government. One thing that is certain is that we’ll definitely find out who’s right at the next Election, but by then it’ll be too late. In the meantime, the whole debate about Immigration is being carried out on Reform’s terms and using Reform’s divisive versions of ‘facts and figures’, which only gives Reform, already well on its way to being anointed 2029 Election Champions by the BBC and the wingnut media, a ton of unearned credibility with a nervous electorate.

And then, of course, there’s Gaza. The whole issue of Israel/Palestine generally, but specifically how Hard Labour have responded to the Israeli Government’s cynical decision to exploit Hamas’ Oct 7 atrocity as cover for Netanyahu’s long-stated desire to stay out of prison and the wider Israeli Far-Right’s even longer stated desire to permanently solve their ‘Palestinian Problem’.

Where do I even start with this comprehensive disaster? To say that Der Starmerpertei have shit the bed here is like saying that the NYT made a small journalistic boo-boo in hounding Joe Biden for non-existent dementia when Donald Trump was drooling fetid arse-gravy out of his facial orifice every time he got in front of a camera. The bed in question very much did not shit itself. It was shit upon. From a very great height. Repeatedly. With gaps between each shitting for three course meals consisting of room-temperature oysters, suspiciously sourced ‘meat-based products’ and coffee laced with cod liver oil. And the people doing the shitting came to the bed on pre-booked buses with their schedules cleared and no pants on. This was very much not a case of anyone being caught short, defecation was always the plan.

It’s not even that surprising that Hard Labour have taken the line they have on Gaza, how could they not? For a start they are terrible, terrible people, but they’re also in an even worse bind than the UK Media Establishment, the slightly less toxic organs of which have spent the period 2023 – 2025 trying to quietly decouple themselves from their 2015-2020 editorial stance of mainstreaming some of the most extreme pro-Israel lobby groups in the UK and backing the formerly fringe campaign to force every institution in the UK (starting with the Labour Party) to adopt the Israeli Right’s maximalist take on what constitutes antisemitism. The FTF Guardian, for example, has quietly tippy-toed back to something like its pre-2015 take on the Israeli Right and their reflexive accusations of antisemitism, ending its cozy relationship with propaganda rags like the Jewish Chronicle now that Corbyn’s threat to the political system is safely disposed of, and is trying its best to pretend that it didn’t spend years treating the Chronicle’s stable of bankrupt liars as The Guardian’s story editors.

Der Starmerpartei can’t do that. They don’t have the same ability to simply wipe the board clean of incriminating evidence. There are already books out there where journalists who knew what was happening at the time are revealing (in non-judgemental, passive-voice mode) how the Labour Together bastards decided just after they lost their 2016 leadership challenge to Corbyn to make fake antisemitism accusations the bedrock of their new scorched-earth offensive. Were they to piss off the wrong people there are no doubt recordings of meetings and WhatsApp conversations from the period that could be leaked, with disastrous effects on certain very important careers. When they allied with the Israeli lobby to destroy the Labour Left, they also gave extremist groups like the Jewish Labour Movement official authority to decide what did and did not constitute antisemitism within the Party, leaving themselves no legitimate avenue through which to dispute their assessments. As events during the Election proved, that was an elementary mistake. Like when Starmer loyalists had to be thrown under the bus after secret recordings were leaked of them having ‘clear the air’ meetings with furious Muslim Party members and referring to the widely held and pretty well-established belief that Netanyahu deliberately ignored warnings that the Oct 7 attacks were about to happen. When you declare ‘Your Party is closed to ‘antisemites’ as code for ‘purge the Left’, but you appoint watchmen who see any questioning of Israel or concern for Palestinians as ‘antisemitism’, you kind of put your nick-nacks in a vice that will be snapped tight on their schedule, not yours.

My heart bleeds. Obviously.

Starmer himself irredeemably stained his own reputation back in ’23 when he said in an interview (yes, he is a former human-rights lawyer, why do you ask?) that of course Israel had the right to violate international law by cutting off food and electricity to the Gaza strip. After that shocker it was clear that newnewlabourinc’s stance on this issue was going to stink like Russell Brand’s bed after a three week pity-party. Against the backdrop of rising public horror and with the example of Russia’s daily slaughter of Ukranians to act as a counterpoint, Der Starmerpartei stubbornly ignored legal and national opinion in order to press on with its policy of sticking like a limpet to whatever line Washington DC was taking. So, they’ve continued selling arms to Israel, providing the IDF with intel and data from RAF surveillance flights and even used its bases to train IDF forces, all despite clear and indisputable evidence that Israel has been openly committing war crimes from the start of the conflict. You don’t have to be a dirty Lefty to recognise that the extreme bias shown by Sir Keir ‘unapologetic Zionist’ Starmer towards Netanyahu’s vile Likud/Lunatic regime has been shameful and disastrous for the Party’s standing, you just have to be an honest observer.

How bad has it got? There have been pro-Palestine marches here for years, cranking up in numbers and frequency once the obliteration of the Gaza ghetto started in earnest and the UK Government donned its thickest Whatabout blinkers in order to pretend that Israel’s ‘right to defend itself’ trumped everything. Public opinion polls have only got worse for Israel and her backers with every upward crank in the obscenity level. Blowing up ambulances. Murdering journalists. Bombing schools. Targeting medics. Levelling hospitals. Hijacking aid ships. Deliberately causing famine. Herding starving people into free-fire zones and sniping at different body parts to turn executions into a ‘game’. It would take a soul as black as George Hamilton’s hair dye to turn a blind eye to all that, but Der Starmerpartei have proven themselves up to the task. Always available for displays of crocodile tears and mealy-mouthed condemnations of some specific acts when the occasion demands it, but they’re never backed up by anything concrete until all other options have been exhausted.

But when it comes to domestic opposition to all this, in whatever form, they suddenly veer into “Hulk Smash!” mode. Palestine Action, a direct-action group opposed to Britain’s pro-Israel policy, recently broke into an RAF base and threw red paint into the engines of two airplanes they claimed were off to aid the Israeli war crime effort. Back during the Iraq War a certain Keir Starmer was the lawyer who defended a member of the Fairford Five, another direct-action group who broke into an RAF base to try and stop US bombers heading to Iraq. His argument back then was that criminal action (like breaking and entering, trespass, and property damage) was justified in prevention of war crimes. He must have argued it well, because the accused were acquitted of the charges. As Prime Minister, his thinking on the issue has clearly ‘evolved’. Rather than let the Police and the Courts deal with Palestine Action, he and his Home Secretary Yvette Cooper chose to dump all over the very concept of proportionality by shoehorning PA onto a list of banned terrorist organisations, sandwiched between the homicidal Maniacs Murder Cult and the neo-Nazi Russian Imperial Movement.

This, to be undeservedly kind, is fucking obscene. It’s exactly the kind of politically influenced abuse of the Terror Laws opponents said would happen back when they were passed. Palestine Action isn’t in any sense of the word a terrorist group. But now that it’s been labelled one, this Government has effectively labelled all pro-Palestinian advocacy as potential terrorism. Not hyperbole. Seriously. Just writing those words here is probably a criminal offence in the UK. People have actually been arrested for having the words ‘Palestine’ and ‘Action’ near each other on placards or for holding copies of a page from the satirical magazine Private Eye mocking the Government’s authoritarian overreach. People have been arrested for waving Palestinian flags. People have been arrested for saying Israel is committing genocide. And not just arrested, but held in cells overnight, interrogated about their ‘terrorist activities’ while their homes are being raided, and then being put on curfews and watch-lists for their ‘crimes’.

I suppose all this police-state bollocks makes perfect sense to the inhabitants of Fuckhead Fascistville, the suburb of Know Your Place City where most of our baton-swinging brethren sleep at night like steroided-up babies in their Judge DreddPJs. Palestine Action wave Palestinian flags, don’t they? Palestine Action say Israel is committing genocide, don’t they? Now that it’s illegal to ‘display support’ for that one group, the Police have all the ‘reasonable suspicion’ they need to infer that anyone supporting Palestine or opposing genocide is a supporter of a banned organisation, don’t they? Yeah, it might look like straight up security-state madness out of the Putin handbook, but it’s just common sense, innit? Have Hard Labour’s leadership raised so much as a quizzical eyebrow at these baseless arrests? Of course not, because this has nothing to do with ‘fighting terrorism’ and everything to do with criminalising opposition to their support for Netanyahu’s regime in the most cynical and cowardly way possible.

It’s all of a dreadful piece with the shameful way Der Starmerpartei’s leadership have decided to address the widespread and growing disgust with their policy of appeasement. And it’s not even going to work. The stupid fucks have just had the London Met drag in extra police from all over the country to mass-arrest over 500 peaceful protestors for daring to oppose this stupidity, and are doubling down by stamping their feet and insisting that Palestine Action are too a “very violent” organisation (they just can’t tell us why because of ‘national security’, which I’m going to go out on a limb and conclude translates to “Israel say they are, but haven’t given us any actual evidence”) and that those they’ve had arrested are going to ‘feel the full weight of the law’ crashing down upon them. Images of 80 year old civil-rights activists being manhandled, handcuffed and dragged into Police vans for opposing the slaughter of children isn’t a good look, any more than harassing punk bands from Ireland for daring to equate the Palestinian struggle with that of their home country, or demanding that rappers at Glastonbury calling out ‘Death to the IDF’ be banned from public view, or even threatening the BBC (the fucking Tory-run, pro-Farage, desperately in need of a wholesale management clear-out BBC!) with cuts in funds for not sacking the staff who didn’t immediately censor footage of the above. It’s ham-fisted at best and long-term it’s electoral poison.

Breathe. Breathe. Think of them naked, oh, ye gods no!

If it was just Gaza, the wankers at Hard Labour could do what they always do and sneeringly dismiss all this anti-genocide protest as irrelevant, but added to horror at their hard-line on Immigration, disgust with their nastiness to the Trans community, anger at their policy of ‘Cuts to Welfare, Billions for Warfare’, fury at their attacks on pensioners, the disabled, and ridicule over their kowtowing to Trump, it all adds up to a majority of the public coming to view newnewlabourinc as just another untrustworthy mob of Tories in red ties who, IMHO, seem to think that, if they just pick the wrong side of every argument, they can somehow lay claim to the equivalent of the 17.5 million moron votes that ‘won’ Brexit and stay in power interminably.

Sigh. It’s fucking idiots all the way down. Idiots standing on the backs of knobheads standing on the eyeballs of lunatics.

So, what’s the future? Are newnewlabourinc going to continue on this death march towards rule or ruin? Are the voters of the UK really going to close their eyes and push the button for the frog-faced fascist just to ‘try something different’? Are the Tories going to wise up to the opportunities they’re missing and tack back towards the centre-right? Are the owners of the UK Media going to allow whatever the new ‘Leftwing’ Party turns into to put its case without a barrage of concocted smears (okay, now I’m just being silly)?

We don’t know. But we can guess. As long as the McSweeney faction remains in control of Starmer and the wider Labour bureaucracy, there will be no diversion from the roadmap set out by Blue Labour. MAGA in the bedroom, Tory in the boardroom, and no room at all for the wider centre-left. The Tories simply have to get rid of the almost mesmerically terrible Kemi Badenoch (she’s out there today beating the drum for common-sense concentration camps, FFS), but she’s just a symptom of their malaise, not the root cause. As with the period when Blair was in power, they’re stuck defending the sins of their past and the electorate don’t take them seriously, but unlike the period Blair was in power, the UK is in a seriously depressed state, economically and culturally, and the Tories have a rival Party to their (far) Right that is occupying the space their most influential MPs and a dangerously large chunk of their actual Party membership want to move into. They – could – make an alliance with Reform, though that mob are so closely associated with Farage himself that it’s hard to see him playing second fiddle to whatever Tory leader gets coughed up after Badenoch gets moved on. They could also take the radical road pioneered by Cameron and Osborne in the early 2000s, pretend to move back towards some kind of mythical centre ground and suggest that they’ve learned from their mistakes. The mainstream media would love that, probably, and this would give them space to shed the hard-right to Reform and work hard to recruit non-lunatics as candidates. Chances are, though, they’ll try to fudge it and wait to see if Reform burns out over the next year or so before making any moves. Badenoch is awful, but who else have they got right now?

The Lib-Dems under Davey seem to have peaked. He’s just not charismatic enough to cut through, has the weight of his past service in the Lib Dem/Tory coalition dragging on his nice-guy image, and despite having something like nineteen times the number of MPs that Reform can muster gets something like 0000.1% of the coverage, because the News Media are all-in on the drama of breathlessly reporting on everything the itinerant MP for Clacton-on-Sea vomits up, but haven’t been interested in anything the Lib Dems say or do since they were ‘Jo Swinson’s Lib-Dems’ back in 2019 and it was tactically useful to promote that nutter’s anti-Corbyn diatribes. The Greens have done well out of newnewlabourinc’s lurch to the right, picking up a lot of protest votes, but if this new Party of the Left emerges out of what Corbyn and Zara Sultana are doing a lot of those votes will probably dry up and they’ll return to being a very small-scale threat to the status quo. A semi-official alliance and some kind of tactical voting agreement between all of these smaller parties might be a way forward, but our electoral system renders that incredibly complicated, and none of them will want to open the way for a minority Reform or Reform/Tory Government.

Whatever happens, it can’t go on this way. 2029 might be a long way off, but when you’re tumbling downhill like a mint-condition Tesla, velocity gobbles up distance faster than you’d think. And thanks to last November, it’s all taking place in a world that has also to deal with the very unnatural disaster polluting your White House.

You know, sometimes, I even depress myself.

 

 

 

 

 

Guest Post – Tony Jay – A Letter from Brexitania: The Tedium IS Their MessagePost + Comments (75)

War for Ukraine Day 946: Last Night’s Russian Drone Swarm Attack Gave Way to a Russian Kinzhal Attack

by Adam L Silverman|  September 26, 20248:59 pm| 28 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, United Kingdom, War, War in Ukraine

Three quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing great. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, Helene is passing us to the west. We’ve got wind gusts and rain and that’s about it. But in case the power decides to flicker a bit, let alone go out, I’m going to just power through and get as much in as I can.

Third, last night in comments way2blue asked:

A bit off topic.  But I would be quite interested in understanding how Rosie’s treatment works.  I’d never imagined such a long involved chemotherapy treatment.  How will you know if she’s gone into remission once it’s finished?  Thanks.

Rosie has lymphoma. The treatment for dogs is essentially the same for humans, but the intention is not to knock everything back completely including her immune system. Rather, it is to knock the lymphoma into remission. In Rosie’s case, she went into remission very quickly. The oncology vet estimated about 80% after the first treatment and in full remission by the third treatment. The survivability – as in how much time the treatment buys a dog in terms of post treatment longevity is about 12 months or so on average. Rosie will turn fourteen in November. She’s in otherwise great shape for a fourteen year old lab mix, but we’ll see how much additional time the treatment has bought her. My goal, and I was very clear with the oncology vet and my regular vet, is to do what is right for Rosie. Had she not been in excellent shape for a 13 and 1/2 year old lab mix, we’d have just done the high dose prednisone and then hospice/palliative to keep her comfortable and happy and let her go. When the time comes, that will happen. We will have to wait and see how much quality time the chemo has bought her.

After the Russians finished attacking Ukraine with the drone swarms last night, they switched over to Kinzhals this morning:

After a night of drone attacks—some shot down right above my head—Russia is now launching Kinzhals. And no, this isn’t because Ukraine is demolished and people are dead. We’re alive and fighting, and Russia is desperate to crush Ukraine and to break the unity of support pic.twitter.com/naTa5wpQVD

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 26, 2024

President Zelenskyy was in DC today meeting with President Biden and Vice President Harris. He has, as of 7:41 PM EDT, not made any addresses today.

During the meeting with @POTUS, I presented the Victory Plan to him. We discussed details to strengthen the Plan, coordinated our positions, views, and approaches, and tasked our teams with holding consultations on the next steps.

We deeply appreciate that Ukraine and the United… pic.twitter.com/ow67qHZqF9

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) September 26, 2024

During the meeting with @POTUS, I presented the Victory Plan to him. We discussed details to strengthen the Plan, coordinated our positions, views, and approaches, and tasked our teams with holding consultations on the next steps.

We deeply appreciate that Ukraine and the United States have stood side by side since the very beginning of the Russian invasion. Your determination is incredibly important for us to prevail.

🇺🇦🇺🇸

I shared the details of the Victory Plan with Vice President @KamalaHarris. It is very important for us to be fully understandable and work in full coordination with the United States.

We must end this war and achieve a just peace. We must protect our people – Ukrainian… pic.twitter.com/ihS1JrAzKk

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) September 26, 2024

I shared the details of the Victory Plan with Vice President @KamalaHarris. It is very important for us to be fully understandable and work in full coordination with the United States.

We must end this war and achieve a just peace. We must protect our people – Ukrainian families, Ukrainian children – and everyone from Putin’s evil. We are grateful to America for supporting Ukraine throughout this time.

VP Harris points out that “there are some in my country who [want] to force Ukraine to give up large parts of its sovereign territory…these proposals are the same as those of Putin. Let us be be clear. They are not proposals for peace. Instead, they are proposals for surrender” pic.twitter.com/N6oFYvH1Hm

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) September 26, 2024

President Zelenskyy also met with a bipartisan group of senators and then a bipartisan group of representatives earlier today as well.

show full post on front page

President Biden issued a statement on US support for Ukraine prior to meeting with President Zelenskyy.

September 26, 2024

Statement from President JoeBiden on U.S. Support forUkraine

I am proud to welcome President Zelenskyy back to the White House today. For nearly three years, the United States has rallied the world to stand with the people of Ukraine as they defend their freedom from Russian aggression, and it has been a top priority of my Administration to provide Ukraine with the support it needs to prevail. In that time, Ukraine has won the battle of Kyiv, reclaimed more than half the territory that Russia seized at the start of the war, and safeguarded its sovereignty and independence. But there is more work to do. That is why, today, I am announcing a surge in security assistance for Ukraine and a series of additional actions to help Ukraine win this war.

Today, I am announcing that:

  • I have directed the Department of Defense to allocate all of its remaining security assistance funding that has been appropriated for Ukraine by the end of my term in office. As part of this effort, the Department of Defense will allocate the remaining Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative funds by the end of this year. I also have authorized $5.5 billion in Presidential Drawdown Authority to ensure this authority does not expire, so that my Administration can fully utilize the funding appropriated by Congress to support the drawdown of U.S. equipment for Ukraine and then replenish U.S. stockpiles.
  • The Department of Defense is announcing $2.4 billion in security assistance through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which will provide Ukraine with additional air defense, Unmanned Aerial Systems, and air-to-ground munitions, as well as strengthen Ukraine’s defense industrial base and support its maintenance and sustainment requirements.
  • To enhance Ukraine’s long-range strike capabilities, I have decided to provide Ukraine with the Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW) long-range munition.
  • To further strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses, I have directed the Department of Defense to refurbish and provide Ukraine with an additional Patriot air defense battery and to provide Ukraine with additional Patriot missiles. This builds on my decision earlier this year to divert U.S. air defense exports to Ukraine, which will provide Ukraine with hundreds of additional Patriot and AMRAAM missiles over the next year and will help Ukraine defend its cities and its people.
  • To build the capacity of Ukraine’s air force, I have directed the Department of Defense to expand training for Ukrainian F-16 pilots, including by supporting the training of an additional 18 pilots next year.
  • To counter Russian sanctions evasion and money laundering, the Department of Justice, the Department of the Treasury, and the U.S. Secret Service have taken action today to disrupt a global cryptocurrency network, in coordination with international partners. The United States will continue to raise the costs on Russia for its war in Ukraine and to deprive the Russian defense industrial base of resources.
  • I will convene a leader-level meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Germany next month to coordinate the efforts of the more than 50 countries supporting Ukraine in its defense against Russian aggression.

Through these actions, my message is clear: The United States will provide Ukraine with the support it needs to win this war.

A number of reporters and subject matter experts have suggested this is the first time that President Biden actually used the word “win” in regard to Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion. I don’t have time to go verify that.

I am grateful to @POTUS Joe Biden, U.S. Congress and its both parties, Republicans and Democrats, as well as the entire American people for today’s announcement of major U.S. defense assistance for Ukraine totalling $7.9 billion and sanctions against Russia.

On behalf of the…

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) September 26, 2024

I am grateful to @POTUS Joe Biden, U.S. Congress and its both parties, Republicans and Democrats, as well as the entire American people for today’s announcement of major U.S. defense assistance for Ukraine totalling $7.9 billion and sanctions against Russia.

On behalf of the Ukrainian people and our brave warriors on the front lines, I thank our closest ally, the United States, for finding a way to allocate the remaining security assistance to Ukraine and ensure that the Presidential authority is not expired by the end of the US financial year.

We will use this assistance in the most efficient and transparent manner to achieve our major common goal: victory for Ukraine, just and lasting peace, and transatlantic security.

I am grateful to the United States for providing the items that are most critical to protecting our people. An additional Patriot air defense battery, other air defense capabilities and interceptors, drones, long-range missiles, and air-to-ground munitions, as well as funds to strengthen Ukraine’s defense industrial base.

I also appreciate the decision to expand programs to train more of our pilots to fly F-16s, as well as the strong sanctions measures imposed to further limit Russia’s ability to fund its aggression against Ukraine.

Ukraine and the United States remain close allies dedicated to defending freedom, human life, and shared security in Europe and beyond. We have always valued the strong bipartisan support in the United States and among Americans for Ukraine’s just cause of defeating Russian aggression.

The US Department of Defense @DeptofDefense has announced an additional security assistance package for Ukraine, which has an estimated value of $375 million.
The capabilities in this package include:
• Air-to-ground munitions
• Ammunition for HIMARS
• 155mm and 105mm… pic.twitter.com/QHIvSqRPca

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 26, 2024

The US Department of Defense @DeptofDefense has announced an additional security assistance package for Ukraine, which has an estimated value of $375 million.
The capabilities in this package include:
• Air-to-ground munitions
• Ammunition for HIMARS
• 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition
• TOW missiles
• Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems
• M1117 Armored Security Vehicles
• MRAP Vehicles
• Light tactical vehicles
• Armored bridging systems
• Small arms
• Patrol boats
• Demolitions equipment and munitions
• Spare parts, ancillary equipment, services, training, and transportation

We are grateful to our American partners for their unwavering support!
Together, we are stronger!
🇺🇦🤝🇺🇸

🇺🇦🤝🇺🇸
The US has announced a historic security assistance package for Ukraine, which totals up to $7,9 billion.
The package includes additional Patriot air defense battery and missiles, JSOW long-range munition, training for Ukrainian F-16 pilots and other critical… pic.twitter.com/YzVWvwm7I5

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 26, 2024

🇺🇦🤝🇺🇸
The US has announced a historic security assistance package for Ukraine, which totals up to $7,9 billion.
The package includes additional Patriot air defense battery and missiles, JSOW long-range munition, training for Ukrainian F-16 pilots and other critical capabilities.
We are grateful to our American friends for their ironclad support. Together, we will win!

While they’ve gotten themselves out of the “we have to do something before the end of the federal fiscal year” crack they’d wedged themselves into, don’t count on much of the above getting to Ukraine any time soon.

The admin had about 4 more days to commit the remaining ~5.9 billion in presidential drawdown authority before it expired at the end of Sept. But the actual shipment of weapons will likely be delayed because of dwindling stockpiles: https://t.co/hTdd80XnUk https://t.co/n7vf6XShVz

— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) September 26, 2024

CNN has the details:

The US plans to announce billions of dollars for Ukraine in the coming days, committing the funding before it expires after Congress failed to include an extension for the aid in its stopgap measure to keep the government open, according to two defense officials and several congressional sources.

The first of the military aid packages, which is expected as soon as Wednesday, will total $375 million, according to the defense officials. From there, the value of the packages will rise sharply, with less than a week before the remainder of the authority expires. Although the packages will be announced in the near future, the shipment of weapons will be delayed because of dwindling stockpiles in the weapons and equipment that the US is willing to send Ukraine, as CNN previously reported.

With days left until the Ukraine aid authority expires, the Biden administration was still looking at a way to extend the authority through the end of the year. The plan requires the administration to obligate the funds to Ukraine before they expire at the end of the month, which would then give the US more time to announce specific aid packages.

“We are committed to making sure Ukraine gets the resources Congress approved before the end of the President’s term and we will have more details to provide soon,” a third defense official said.

The Biden administration has nearly $6 billion left in what’s known as presidential drawdown authority to deliver arms and equipment to Ukraine before it expires at the end of the month. The Pentagon was pushing Congress to extend the authority into the next fiscal year so that it would not expire, which would give the US more flexibility in its ability to provide critical supplies to support Ukraine in its war with Russia.

Congressional leaders were forced to leave the language out of the spending bill because of internal resistance from the House GOP, according to a person familiar with the matter. House Republicans remain deeply divided over funding for Ukraine

Zelensky has repeatedly called on the US and other countries to deliver more weapons to Ukraine and has pushed for the US to loosen its restrictions on the use of US weapons against targets deep inside Russia.

CNN reported last week that the US was considering announcing large military aid packages to Ukraine that would be delivered over the course of months. In the past, military aid packages under presidential drawdown authority were often delivered within days or weeks.

But with billions in military aid set to expire, the US is expected to announce large overall aid package and space out the delivery of supplies and equipment over several months, turning a short-term supply line into a longer-term commitment.

Almost three years into this phase of the war and the US’s defense industrial base is still incapable of doing much of anything.

This is true: the longer we allow the axis of revisionist states to do unthinkable things with impunity, the likelier we will end up with more war and larger war. https://t.co/AAnHDpuGmD

— Edward Hunter Christie (@EHunterChristie) September 26, 2024


Unfortunately, we still don’t have positive movement regarding Ukraine’s use of US produced long range weaponry or other state’s long range weaponry made with US components.

Russian nuclear saber rattling while Zelenskyy visits the UN & DC is a non-story.
This is a tired old Kremlin scare tactic. Yet it still works on many, including Biden. So Russia keeps exploiting that weakness. Western fear is Russia’s greatest weapon. Our fear prolongs this war.

— Jessica Berlin (@berlin_bridge) September 26, 2024

Argument against Ukraine striking inside Russia to avoid escalation is wearing thin—Russia’s already escalating. In my first article for @FPRI, I explain why limiting Ukraine’s strikes only plays into Moscow’s hands.https://t.co/0fKmAjUm2E

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 26, 2024

From The Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI):

On a sunny Sunday afternoon, August 30, Russia launched five glide bombs toward Kharkiv. One bomb obliterated the entrance of a twelve-story residential building, where a seventy-one-year-old burned alive. Another killed a fourteen-year-old girl sitting on a bench in a park, leaving six people dead in total. In September, Russia began showering Kharkiv with deadly glide bombs almost daily, most targeting densely populated residential areas. These bombs were launched from fighter jets just across the border in Russia’s Belgorod region, leaving Kharkiv residents no chance to take cover because of its close proximity. These brutal assaults have turned Kharkiv into a symbol of daily terror but also a powerful emblem of Ukraine’s resilience, underscoring with brutal clarity that limiting Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied weapons is neither viable nor effective.

As Russia escalates its aggression, the question is no longer whether Ukraine should be allowed to strike deep into Russian territory, but when. The time to lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied weapons to target Russia’s military infrastructure is long overdue. During his visit to the United States, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will likely push to secure guarantees before the upcoming US elections, “while all the officials who want the victory of Ukraine are in official positions.” Among Kyiv’s urgent requests is the ability to use British, French, and Italian Storm Shadow missiles, as well as US-made Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to strike airbases and other critical military targets inside Russia.

Speaking from aboard a plane en route to a Pennsylvania ammunition factory producing some of Ukraine’s most urgently needed munitions, Zelensky announced that he is to present a victory plan to President Joe Biden and other Western leaders. A week earlier, Russia’s representative to the United Nations, Vassily Nebenzia, issued an ultimatum. Any decision by NATO countries to allow Ukraine to use long-range weapons to strike inside Russia would be seen as a direct act of war by NATO against Russia. “The facts are that NATO will be a direct party to hostilities against a nuclear power,” Nebenzia warned. His remarks echoed earlier threats made by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has repeatedly claimed that such an agreement would mark NATO’s formal entry into the war.

Russia has consistently employed reflexive control tactics, leveraging threats and diplomatic manipulations to sway Western decision-making. This strategy relies on deliberately ambiguous nuclear warnings to amplify perceived danger. By playing on the fear of escalation, Russia seeks to undermine Western resolve and restrain support for Kyiv at pivotal junctures.

As the war approaches its third year anniversary, the challenges in Ukraine are expected to grow “deeper and harsher,” especially heading into late 2025 and beyond. The current policy of restraint is becoming increasingly outdated and counterproductive. Lifting the ban on Ukraine striking deep into Russian territory is not only long overdue—it is crucial for several key reasons.

The Escalation Argument Has Lost its Power

One of the primary reasons the West has maintained the restriction on Ukraine using Western weapons to strike inside Russia has been the fear of escalation. NATO countries, particularly the United States, have been cautious about actions that could be interpreted as direct involvement in the war. The Biden administration has repeatedly emphasized its goal: helping Ukraine defend itself without triggering a broader NATO-Russia conflict.

However, the reality is that escalation has already happened, and much of it has been initiated by Russia. Moscow has systematically broadened the scope of the war by acquiring more advanced weaponry, including Iranian ballistic missiles, and ramping up its strikes on Ukrainian cities, energy infrastructure, and civilian targets. Recent missile and glide bomb attacks launched from Russian territory into Ukraine—especially the daily bombardments of Kharkiv—demonstrate Russia’s increasing aggression. One of the deadliest attacks, the bombing of Kharkiv’s Epicenter home improvement store and the Factor Druk printing house in May 2024, highlighted the growing destruction and sophistication of Moscow’s campaign.

Russia’s arsenal now also includes supplies from North Korea, with reports confirming ballistic missile shipments. These were used in assaults such as the August 18 attack on Kyiv. Meanwhile, Moscow continues to devastate Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, targeting its capacity to generate electricity and heating ahead of the winter months. The systematic destruction of Ukraine’s energy system, which began intensifying in the spring of 2024, has already wiped out over two-thirds of Ukraine’s generation capacity. The coming winter threatens to be the most difficult yet for Ukraine’s energy sector, as Russia’s ongoing strikes continue to destabilize the country.

In this context, the argument that Ukraine should avoid striking inside Russia to prevent escalation rings increasingly hollow. Russia is already escalating. Limiting Ukraine’s ability to respond effectively only weakens its defense and emboldens Moscow.

In reality, none of the steps the West has already taken—or is considering doing—would trigger a nuclear response based on Russia’s own nuclear doctrine. By that same doctrine, however, Ukraine’s recent incursion into Russia’s Kursk region could have generated a nuclear response, as it constituted an attack on what Russia considers its territorial integrity. In fact, some experts suggest that Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk was partly intended to send a message to the West: Putin’s so-called red lines can be crossed without provoking major retaliation, such as nuclear strikes. The move aimed to expose Russia’s nuclear threats as bluster and push Western countries to recognize that many of these threats are hollow.

More at the link.

President Zelenskyy has also extended his trip a day so he can meet with Trump who, along with his supporters, are performing upset over Zelenskyy’s visit to a munitions factory in Scranton, PA last week. Trump, or Dan Scavino who posts as Trump on his social media accounts, appears to have posted communications between Zelenskyy’s team and Trump regarding the meeting.

Donald Trump just published a screenshot of what appears to be internal communication between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his team. https://t.co/UQBnSrkR5Q

— Ostap Yarysh (@OstapYarysh) September 26, 2024

Volodymyr Zelenskyy seeks to contain Republican backlash over US visit via @FT
https://t.co/BlIuniecjl

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) September 26, 2024

From The Financial Times:

Donald Trump has said he will meet Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York on Friday, despite a Republican backlash against the Ukrainian president’s lobbying efforts in the US this week.

Zelenskyy had been trying to soothe US Republicans including Trump and House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson who had reacted furiously to the Ukrainian president’s courting of Democrats this week in an attempt to secure more support for Kyiv’s position against Russia.

“I hate to see the carnage,” Trump said on Thursday while claiming he would “quite quickly” strike a peace deal between Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“As you know President Zelenskyy has asked to meet me and I will be meeting with him tomorrow morning at around 9:45 in Trump Tower,” the Republican former president added in a press conference in New York.

Trump’s comments came after Zelenskyy wrote to Trump asking for a meeting to discuss Ukraine’s pursuit of a “just peace”.

The Republican presidential candidate posted Zelenskyy’s letter on his social media platform earlier on Thursday.

“You know I always speak with great respect about everything connected to you,” Zelenskyy wrote. “I would really like for our meeting to take place as part of our efforts to end this war in a just way.”

The exchange marked an attempt by the Ukrainian leader to regain his footing after Trump and others expressed anger at Zelenskyy for focusing his diplomacy on Democratic politicians in the middle of the US election campaign.

The furore erupted after the US announced another $8bn package of aid for Ukraine backed by Republicans.

The Republican backlash caused consternation in Kyiv, where Zelenskyy’s allies accused officials of bungling the US trip at a crucial moment for Ukraine, which has lost ground to Russian forces in the eastern Donbas region.

A former Ukrainian official said: “It looks like the Republicans were looking for ways to create a scandal but we should have avoided giving them the opportunity. The Republicans will still be strong in Washington. They can block everything.”

Ukraine’s president earlier on Thursday expressed his gratitude to “Joe Biden, US Congress and both its parties, Republicans and Democrats, as well as the entire American people” for the fresh aid.

“We have always valued the strong bipartisan support in the United States and among Americans for Ukraine’s just cause of defeating Russian aggression,” he wrote on social media.

Trump lashed out at the Ukrainian leader on Wednesday, accusing him of refusing any negotiation with Russia and claiming Zelenskyy had cast “aspersions” about him.

Johnson demanded the resignation of Ukraine’s ambassador to the US, Oksana Markarova, who organised Zelenskyy’s visit to an arms factory in Scranton, Pennsylvania, where he was accompanied only by Democrats. Pennsylvania is a swing state in November’s presidential election.

“The tour was clearly a partisan campaign event designed to help Democrats and is clearly election interference,” Johnson wrote in a letter to the Ukrainian leader.

Zelenskyy had intended to use his US trip to present his so-called victory plan for strengthening Ukraine’s military and diplomatic position to Biden, Trump and Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate.

He met Harris and Biden at the White House on Thursday, where the vice-president took veiled aim at Trump and his running mate JD Vance, implying they would “force Ukraine to give up large parts” of its land and “require Ukraine to forgo security”.

Speaking alongside Zelenskyy, she added: “They are proposals for surrender, which is dangerous and unacceptable”.

Trump on Thursday denied his vision for ending the war amounted to surrender.

“It’s not a surrender . . . my strategy is to save lives,” he said, adding that his message to Zelenskyy would be: “We need peace. We need to stop the death and destruction.”

The $8bn package unveiled by the White House comprises $2.4bn in new assistance and $5.6bn already earmarked for Ukraine and includes a first pledge of “joint stand-off weapons” or glide bombs, which could be used for long-range strikes.

But the package falls well short of the needs Zelenskyy presented to Biden later on Thursday. The US has rebuffed Kyiv’s repeated requests to use long-range weapons to strike targets inside Russia, an important element in his plan.

The Republican backlash over Zelenskyy’s US visit has triggered recriminations in Kyiv.

“Going to Scranton was a mistake,” said Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of the foreign affairs committee in the Ukrainian parliament. “The president has been let down either by someone in the embassy or in his office.”

He added: “It would have been better not to have made that visit at all.”

David Arakhamia, leader of Zelenskyy’s Servant of the People party in parliament, played down the significance of Trump’s comments, describing them as “campaign rhetoric and manipulation, which everyone is doing”.

Stop rationalizing that he’ll be OK, maybe even tough on Putin if Putin screws him over, etc. He wins, the war is all but lost for Ukraine. It’s why Russia is interfering in the election on his behalf (again). Moscow understands their man better than his party does. https://t.co/doPMOeZxbE

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) September 26, 2024

Here’s the full text of the quoted tweet:

“Ukraine is gone”

Before again calling for Ukraine to appease Putin, Trump runs through a series of verbatim Kremlin talking points, initially disparaging President Zelensky before moving on to the crown jewel of Russian disinformation narratives, namely that Ukraine doesn’t exist.

At this point, shouldn’t Americans be asking who Trump actually works for?

As I said after Trump’s one foreign policy speech in 2016, which was delivered at the think tank of the now indicted Russian asset Dmitry Simes, this is national security narcissism. It is also natsec and foreign policy by temper tantrum.

Constantly using Ukraine as a political target during elections for short-term gains creates hatred toward Ukrainians.

While elections come and go, the hate remains. As if enduring the largest invasion since World War II, along with destruction and deaths isn’t enough

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 26, 2024

Unfortunately, President Zelenskyy has no choice but to take these people seriously because there’s a 30% chance Trump could be elected in November – the same chance he had in 2020 and 2016 – and due to the bad map for the Democrats senate map and the fact that Republican gerrymanders are still in place and in some cases have been made more extreme combined with even more extreme voter suppression in GOP controlled states, Ukraine’s fate may be in their hands. Attempting to soothe their faux indignation is unlikely to actually help, but he still has to go through the motions to keep up the appearances.

The UK:

The UK’s new government set to surpass its pledge of delivering 12 AS90 artillery guns to Ukraine within 100 days of taking office. A total of 16 units are now on course to be delivered, with 10 already delivered and six more to follow in the coming weeks.… pic.twitter.com/UTHGntZlPy

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 26, 2024

The UK’s new government set to surpass its pledge of delivering 12 AS90 artillery guns to Ukraine within 100 days of taking office. A total of 16 units are now on course to be delivered, with 10 already delivered and six more to follow in the coming weeks.

https://gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-speed-up-military-kit-deliveries-to-support-ukraines-fight

Germany:

Bundestag today agreed to increase funding for military support to Ukraine by around EUR 400 million in 2024. This will enable additional air defense, tanks, drones, ammunition and spare parts to be purchased, which will effectively strengthen the Ukrainian armed forces… pic.twitter.com/R4mW0W5q6E

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 26, 2024

Bundestag today agreed to increase funding for military support to Ukraine by around EUR 400 million in 2024. This will enable additional air defense, tanks, drones, ammunition and spare parts to be purchased, which will effectively strengthen the Ukrainian armed forces

https://bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/pressemitteilungen/zweites-treffen-der-teilnehmer-des-ukraine-compact-in-new-york-2311578

19, yes.

19 Skyranger mobile air defense units. 19 For the whole Bundeswehr. Not 190.

How is Russia supposed to take us seriously if we can’t take us seriously ourselves?

And yes, I know. More might be ordered. Might. https://t.co/loceXlef8g

— Fabian Hoffmann (@FRHoffmann1) September 25, 2024

Here’s the translation of the quoted tweet:

The #Bundeswehr will receive a total of 19 anti-aircraft tanks of the #Skyranger30 type by 2028. #Rheinmetall presented the combination of a turret with a 30-millimeter cannon and a Boxer wheeled tank in action for the first time in Zurich. 🔽
https://bundeswehr.de/de/aktuelles/meldungen/skyranger-30-bundeswehr-erhaelt-19-neue-flugabwehrpanzer

The cost:

The greatest respect goes to foreigners who volunteer to fight for Ukraine — those who came to stay and help Ukraine despite the unbelievable hell that rages at the front. https://t.co/mkGxSxj91e

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 26, 2024

Germany’s defense industrial base also doesn’t seem to be in such good shape either.

RIP brother 💔🇮🇪

Robert Deegan (29), from Newbridge, Co Kildare, was killed in action fighting for the Ukrainian special forces on the front line on Thursday, September 19.

The Kildare man was a highly skilled soldier who served in the Army Ranger Wing and the Engineers Unit of the Defence Forces Training Centre.

The released 22-year old Ukrainian POW who was tortured to the point of him being mute… started finally speaking and eating a little in hospital.

But the first thing that his mother said came out of his mouth was this: “why so much pain? How can people do this to each other?”… pic.twitter.com/9NROnnRDbQ

— Тетяна Denford 🇺🇦🔱 (@TetyanaUkrainka) September 26, 2024

The released 22-year old Ukrainian POW who was tortured to the point of him being mute… started finally speaking and eating a little in hospital.

But the first thing that his mother said came out of his mouth was this: “why so much pain? How can people do this to each other?” 💔

Kyiv:

2/2 У КМВА зазначали, що уламки впали на території дитячого садку, а у Печерському районі сталася розгерметизація газової труби в житловому будинку, також пошкоджено близько 20 автівок.

— Радіо Свобода (@radiosvoboda) September 26, 2024

Here’s the translation of the first tweet:

1/2 We show the consequences of the night attack on Kyiv, where air defense forces shot down drones for five hours

And the second one:

2/2 KMVA noted that debris fell on the territory of a kindergarten, and in the Pechersk district, a gas pipe depressurized in a residential building, and about 20 cars were also damaged.

More explosions and Ukrainian air defense engaging Russian attack drones over Kyiv just moment ago, as morning rush hour begins and nearly 3 million residents start their day. For many it begins in bomb shelters. https://t.co/seTmQViFi5

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) September 26, 2024

Vuhledar:

Heavy combat for Vuhledar continues. I don’t understand the rationale for holding onto the ruins until the last when resupply/evacuation routes are getting under enemy fire control. Since the Commander-in-Chief recently replaced the brigade commander, this isn’t a local decision pic.twitter.com/I9mxeWvlFP

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 26, 2024

Vuhledar & Pokrovsk:

Updated maps from the last two days showing Russian advances on the Vuhledar and Pokrovsk fronts.https://t.co/n5pLCZ3rrB https://t.co/8oj4YEVb6j pic.twitter.com/iJ2x9FzAsW

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) September 26, 2024

Kharkiv:

Russian troops have just carried out an airstrike on Kharkiv. According to the mayor’s initial report, the bomb struck a private house!

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) September 26, 2024

Russian terror has destroyed tens of thousands of apartment buildings and houses across Ukraine. The comfort and memories tied to a beloved home, like those destroyed in this video from Kharkiv, cannot simply be “rebuilt.” These are more than just buildings – they are lives,… pic.twitter.com/VZKl6srLNs

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) September 26, 2024

Russian terror has destroyed tens of thousands of apartment buildings and houses across Ukraine. The comfort and memories tied to a beloved home, like those destroyed in this video from Kharkiv, cannot simply be “rebuilt.” These are more than just buildings – they are lives, dreams, and futures shattered. Many who lived there will never return, as countless families have been killed, leaving no one to rebuild for. In today’s russian aerial attack alone, four more civilians were wounded.

Kherson:

#Kherson is under heavy artillery fire now just as it is very night; after a day of hourly drone attacks on humans, just as it is every day.

And Kherson is not gone. It is fighting and it is Ukraine. Just as Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Odesa, Uman…

Slava Ukraine! Fuck Russia! https://t.co/7DMhVW3l40

— Zarina Zabrisky 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@ZarinaZabrisky) September 26, 2024

#Kherson region On Sept 25,

💔2 killed
💔14 injured

🔴Damaged

Critical infrastructure objects, administrative buildings
cultural and medical institutions, agricultural enterprises
shops
9 high-rises
20 private houses

🔴24 settlements shelled pic.twitter.com/YWVtRuHZSz

— Zarina Zabrisky 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@ZarinaZabrisky) September 26, 2024

 

Speaking of western components in weapons, Tatarigami and his Frontelligence Insight Team have a deep dive into how western components are still making their way into Russian weaponry.

After reviewing an internal correspondence leak from a Russian military electronics plant “Mikropribor”, Frontelligence Insight, with data provided by @CyberResUa discovered that the production of the Su-57 is in jeopardy without access to crucial Western components. 🧵Thread:Image
2/ According to correspondence between the head of the procurement bureau at the “Red Banner” plant (a part of Almaz-Antei) and “Mikropribor” in August 2022, Mikropribor was given a list of required equipment for the MPPU-50. Keep this device name in mind- it’s importantImage
3/ The provided list consists of foreign-made components, including the WA36 Fixed Attenuator, EA-PS 3150, and PLR7 60-12 power supplies, all sourced by various Russian companies. The goal of procurement is to ensure the assembly of automated workstations for testing the MPPU-50Image
4/ All the aforementioned components are produced abroad and supplied by various Russian companies that acquire and deliver this equipment. But why do we care and what exactly is the MPPU-50? 
5/ An official correspondence letter between the Almaz-Antei affiliate “Red Banner” and Mikropribor reveals that MPPU-50 modules are integral to the production of the Su-57. The letter states that challenges in MPPU-50 production could jeopardize the production of Su-57Image
6/ Additionally, we know that the “Mikropribor” research institute and production facility were working on at least three automated stations for testing and calibrating the MPPU-50, used in its latest generation of jets – Su-57 production, which heavily relied on Western parts.Image
7/ The list of specific parts provides clearer insight into the Western components used in production, in this particular example from Pulsar Microwave Corporation. Notably, the purchase offer for these components was made in July 2022, nearly six months into the war.Image
8/ The supplied parts extend beyond smaller components, as shown in the deal between the Mikropribor factory and a company called KMT, where KMT agreed to supply at least one Siemens lathe (model KLE 360) in July 2022Image
9/ While it’s hard to determine from the documents whether these components came from the existing Russian stockpiles or were deliberately sold via third countries, it’s clear that Russia’s military industry heavily depends on Western components, particularly in electronics 
10/ Considering that Russian military production continued to expand in 2023 and 2024, it’s clear that they find ways to smuggle key components or purchase Chinese replacements to maintain production. While we can’t eliminate these deliveries, we should aim to minimize them 

Moscow:

https://t.co/9IG7DuybvS pic.twitter.com/JsiGzE3CuV

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) September 26, 2024

From The Daily Beast:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the United States notably darkened the mood in Russia.

In the run-up to the high-profile journey that clearly irked the Kremlin, Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova claimed that America is just like the Third Reich. Other commentators apparently received the same set of talking points and started to describe the U.S. as a Nazi nation.

In anticipation of the visit, most state TV pundits and experts warned viewers that a decision to allow Ukraine to strike deep within Russian territory is all but imminent. To address these fears, some of the most prominent talking heads are being sent out to convince the population that even long-range strikes are not that big of a deal.

Tigran Keosayan, husband of Margarita Simonyan—the notorious editor-in-chief of the state-controlled RT network—caused quite a stir when he showed up on Vladimir Solovyov’s show earlier in September and tacitly criticized people who demand nuclear strikes in response to Ukraine’s counter-attacks into Russian territory. Keosayan argued that these kinds of strikes would not imperil Russia’s existence and therefore would not warrant a nuclear response.

Solovyov, who is a known proponent of preemptively nuking Western capitals, seemed to be in shock when he was contradicted on his own show. Since Simonyan is well-connected to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin circles, the talking points her husband was sent to deliver were most likely pre-approved.

After the debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump, most of Russian state TV’s talking heads and experts grimly concluded that their favored candidate, Trump, will most likely fail in his presidential bid, which means that America can’t be expected to abandon Ukraine and simply hand it over into Moscow’s clutches. However, if Trump was to prevail and Russia was able to defeat Ukraine, according to military expert Alexey Anpilogov, “a Russian steamroller” would keep moving throughout Europe and Poland would be next on the Kremlin’s target list.

During Monday’s broadcast of The Meeting Place, by contrast, political scientist Alexander Sytin addressed the glaring misconception that spurred the Kremlin’s ill-fated invasion. He asked: “Are you still certain, nearly three years later, that they’re waiting for you there, that they love you and are ready to submit to you?”

Host Andrey Norkin bluntly admitted: “It’s not about whether they’re waiting for us or love us, we just have to bring some kind of order there—otherwise they will keep jumping at us.”

“Hold on a second, who jumped on whom?” Sytin replied, amazed by the attempt to blame Ukraine for the war.

On an earlier September broadcast, Sytin threw caution to the wind as he pondered why Russia even launched the invasion given that it isn’t able to gain control of Ukraine by the means of conventional warfare and is most likely unwilling to use nuclear weapons. Putin himself said in 2022 “there can be no winners in a nuclear war” and it “should never be unleashed.”

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. So here’s the next episode in Patron’s official cartoon series:

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 946: Last Night’s Russian Drone Swarm Attack Gave Way to a Russian Kinzhal AttackPost + Comments (28)

War for Ukraine Day 937: Ukraine Is Not Getting Authorization to Use Long Range Weapons Any Time Soon

by Adam L Silverman|  September 17, 20248:53 pm| 17 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, United Kingdom, War, War in Ukraine

Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing great. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, how is it only Tuesday? It was another very, very, very long day here. Nothing bad, just very long. So I’m going to just run through the basics.

British Foreign Secretary David Lammy has announced that Britain will not go it alone in providing Ukraine authorization to use long range weapons against Russian targets in Russia.

It’s like watching a bully beat someone to death while the crowd stands by holding bats, but no one steps in. No one hands over a bat because the bully warns, ‘Help them, and you’re next.’ pic.twitter.com/BpVlWOeov3

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 17, 2024

From The Times of London:

Britain will not allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles against targets in Russia without the agreement of the United States.

President Zelensky pleaded for the UK and US to overcome their “fear” and show “decisiveness” over the issue.

Five former defence secretaries and an ex-prime minister have urged Sir Keir Starmer to go ahead unilaterally. They have warned that delays will only serve to embolden President Putin.

However, The Times has been told that the UK will not “go it alone” because US guidance systems were seen as crucial to ensuring the missiles hit their targets.

The government believes the US is still likely to give the green light at the UN general assembly in New York, although there are splits within President Biden’s administration.

David Lammy, the foreign secretary, told Laura Kuenssberg on BBC1 that there needed to be a “shared strategy” among western allies.

He said: “It’s important that as allies supporting Ukraine, we have a shared strategy to win going forward. Now we’ve been discussing this with the United States and with other key allies, but of course, we head to the UN general assembly, where we will all meet with Zelensky in just under 12 days’ time.”

He said that “no war is won with any one weapon”, but added: “It’s important that we support the Ukrainians to continue to repel Russia in the Black Sea, it’s important that they can deal with the huge challenges in the air that are being mounted by Russia and of course that we support them — and we have — with training of their own men and women on the front line. We want to put Ukraine in the strongest position going forward.”

Zelensky said on Sunday: “The world must help us defend ourselves against Russian military aircraft and the dozens of guided aerial bombs that claim Ukrainian lives every day.

“This terror can be stopped. But to stop it, the fear of making strong, objectively necessary decisions must be overcome. Only decisiveness can bring a just end to this war. It is decisiveness that most effectively protects against terror.”

More at the link.

Here’s the results of the moral cowardice and strategic malpractice:

On a day meant to honor Ukraine’s State Emergency Service, russia attacked Kharkiv with aerial bombs, injuring four rescuers, with three in critical condition, along with three civilians. An assault on those who save lives is an assault on the values that unite us as human beings pic.twitter.com/HU14AoiP99

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) September 17, 2024

In Novohrodivka, northwest of Donetsk, the Russians also executed a Ukrainian Soldier with a sword to the heart. His hands were tied and the Russians tried to photoshop the ropes out of the pictures they’ve posted on social media. I’ve seen the imagery and footage, you don’t need to go looking for it.

The Kyiv Post has the details:

Editor’s note: The story has been updated with information from the Prosecutor General’s Office on the location of the alleged killing of a Ukrainian soldier.

Ukraine’s Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said on Sept. 17 that he had appealed to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and the United Nations in response to a photo that allegedly shows the execution of a Ukrainian prisoner of war (POW) by Russia.

On the morning of Sept. 17, a photo of an apparently executed Ukrainian soldier with a sword in his chest and the inscription “For Kursk” appeared on social media. Remnants of gray tape are visible on the soldier’s hand.

The photo appears to show a bloodied body lying on the road against the backdrop of damaged vehicles and a house with broken windows. The exact location is unclear.

The Kyiv Independent could not verify the photo.

“The level of barbarism and bloodthirstiness is impossible to comprehend,” Lubinets wrote on his Telegram channel. The ombudsman stressed that such actions are a flagrant violation of the Geneva Convention on the Treatment of Prisoners of War.

Later in the day, the Prosecutor General’s Office said that the alleged execution of a   Ukrainian soldier took place in the town of Novohrodivka in Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian authorities have not yet established the time when the alleged execution took place.

The investigation is ongoing to establish the circumstances and identify the people responsible for the crime. The pre-trial investigation is conducted by the Security Service of Ukraine’s (SBU) investigators in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, according to the Prosecutor General’s Office.

More at the link.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

A Good, Strong Content of the Military Package for Our Victory Plan Has Been Prepared – Address by the President

17 September 2024 – 19:26

Dear Ukrainians!

Briefly about this day. First – a meeting on the military component of our Victory Plan for Ukraine. I worked together with the military command. A good, strong content of the military package for our Victory Plan has been prepared – the very things that can significantly strengthen Ukraine in accordance with the Victory Plan.

Second – I held a meeting on our F-16 fleet. Together with the Air Force Command. There is a clear vision of the steps – how to increase the number of combat aircraft in Ukraine and speed up our pilot training. All the tasks for the Air Force of Ukraine and the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine have been defined.

Together with the Prime Minister of Ukraine, we heard new strategies for the work of two state institutions – the Ministry for Communities and Territories Development and the Ministry of Veterans Affairs. Deputy Prime Minister Kuleba and Minister Kalmykova reported with their teams. The strategies are ambitious, but the most important thing is that people really feel the results of the work of the Ministries and the Government in general. We also had a separate discussion with Denys Shmyhal on energy and other key issues.

There were reports on the situation in Sumy and the region. After the Russian strikes on energy facilities, there are blackouts. The city of Sumy, districts of the region. Repair crews are currently working. A coordination center has been set up. I thank everyone involved in the restoration work – power engineers, regional authorities, local authorities, and all State Emergency Service employees.

And one more thing.

Today is Rescuer’s Day in Ukraine. The day of all our people who work exclusively to save the lives of others. Today I thanked the entire staff of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, each and every one of those who has been helping. I also presented them with state awards. And now I want to personally thank those rescuers who have been particularly outstanding now, these very days. This is Yevhenii Khorunzhyi – a rescuer from the Kharkiv region, a Sergeant, who has been working in the SES for 5 years and is constantly involved in eliminating the consequences of Russian strikes. This is Oleksandr Ahudov – a Captain of the Civil Defense Service, who has been working in the rescue service for 13 years in the Donetsk region. Volodymyr Morozov – a Master Sergeant from the Sumy region. Last night he took part in the elimination of the consequences of the Russian strike on Konotop and has always been active in protecting people. Andrii Zhytkov – Master Sergeant, Donetsk region. He works in the most dangerous frontline areas, helps evacuate people, and rescues them after strikes. Volodymyr Piskun – Master Sergeant, Kherson region. He has been with the SES for 14 years, a truly professional person. And the sappers of the SES of Ukraine – these are Oleh Filippov, Mykola Lintsov and Oleksandr Humenchak. Very efficient guys. I thank you and all your colleagues!

I thank everyone who stands with Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine

Minister @rustem_umerov had a weekly call with US @SecDef Lloyd Austin.
🇺🇦🇺🇸 https://t.co/E4f4L7GTeV

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 17, 2024

Ukrainian rescuers are risking their lives to help others.
They save human lives and mitigate the consequences of russian attacks, fires and floods.

Today, Ukraine celebrate their professional holiday. @SESU_UA, thank you for your invaluable service.

📹: @United24media pic.twitter.com/ljdBZRyfvg

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 17, 2024

NATO:

‼️ NATO Secretary General on long-range strikes against Russia: Biggest risk for Europe is Russian victory https://t.co/MgzSkBEEd7

— Ukrainska Pravda in English (@pravda_eng) September 16, 2024

From Ukrainska Pravda:

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has said that the decision to allow Ukraine to launch long-range strikes on Russian territory will depend on individual allies. He also stressed that there are always risks in war, but the biggest risk for Europe is a Russian victory in Ukraine.

Source: European Pravda citing Stoltenberg’s words in an interview with LBC

Details: The soon-to-be outgoing NATO secretary general welcomed the public debate in recent days over the possible permission for Ukraine to strike Russian territory with Western long-range weapons.

Quote: “It’s for the individual allies to make these decisions, but it’s important that we consult closely on these issues as we do.”

Details: Commenting on the concerns of some allies about the risk of escalation of the war in Ukraine, Stoltenberg reminded that it is about “a full-scale war in Europe launched by Moscow”.

“There are no risk-free options in the war. But I continue to believe that the biggest risk for us will be if [Russian leader] Putin wins in Ukraine,” the secretary general stressed.

Ukraine is seeking to use long-range missiles to hit Russian air bases and military targets involved in attacks on Ukrainian cities.

Background:

  • Earlier, Russian leader Vladimir Putin warned that allowing Kyiv to carry out long-range strikes would “mean that NATO countries, the United States and European countries are at war with Russia”.
  • Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha is convinced that allies should step up support for Kyiv despite Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s threats, as he does nothing despite his words.

Remember this meme @elonmusk posted? Apparently it was created by someone named Sofiya, who worked for a Russian government agency sanctioned by the US and aimed at spreading propaganda in the West. @cxemu got access to a massive data leak and uncovered some interesting details. pic.twitter.com/1NnmPMcsWe

— Ostap Yarysh (@OstapYarysh) September 17, 2024

The original reporting is at Radio Svoboda and is not in English. Here’s a rundown in English:

Pro-Russia narratives, memes, “augmented reality and fakes registry”: how the Kremlin-hired disinformation agency works

Thread🧵Image

2/11 “Schemes” @MaksymSavchuk @AnnaMyroniuk gained access to thousands of leaked documents from the Russian “Social Design Agency” or “SDA”, an organization sanctioned by the EU and the US, and, according to American intelligence, supervised by the Putin Administration. 
3/11 The leaked internal files of the “Social Design Agency” were obtained by the German media @SZ, @ndr and @WDR, and the Estonian news site @DelfiEE, which then shared them with a dozen European media outlets, including “Schemes.” 
4/11 As part of the #FactoryofFakes project, “Schemes” gained access to the smallest details of the Russian disinformation operations planning: minutes of “SDA” meetings and reports on fake dissemination.Image
5/11 The obtained documents show that “SDA” uses disinformation to discredit Ukraine, its top officials and citizens, as well as the leaders of Western countries who support it while promoting the interests of Russia and European politicians who defend them. 
6/11 For example, “SDA” tried to influence the June 2024 elections to the European Parliament to bring to power more representatives of right-wing forces who Russian political technologists expected to support Russia and oppose Western aid to Ukraine.Image
7/11 This disinformation operation included, among other things, a “comprehensive counter-campaign” against European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. 
8/11 The company also spread numerous fakes about Ukrainians to Western audiences. One example is that Ukrainians join ISIS while seeking refuge in Europe or that Ukrainians traffick children evacuated from the country’s frontline to the EU.Image
9/11 The “SDA” also tried to influence the Ukrainians themselves. Russian political technologists used sensitive topics such as mobilization, battlefield casualties, restrictions on freedom of speech effective during martial law, drying up Western aid, and internal corruption.Image
10/11 Russian disinformation specialists from “SDA” also used President Zelenskiy’s tense relations with his predecessor Petro Poroshenko, ex-Armed Forces chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi, and Kyiv mayor Vitali Klychko to divide Ukrainians.Image

11/11 Who leads the “SDA” disinformation operations and what fakes does the company spread for the Kremlin? Read more about it in the newest investigation by “Schemes”

Темники, меми, «реєстр фейків та допреальності». Як працює агенція-підрядник Кремля із дезінформації«Агенція соціального дизайну» створює та поширює фейки для дискредитації України, її найвищого керівництва та громадян, та просуває інтереси Росіїhttps://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/skhemy-kreml-dezinformatsiya-asd-hambashydze/33121898.html

In a similar vein, Microsoft’s Threat Analysis Center has released a new assessment of Russian interference in the 2024 elections.

Russia and Iran have both undertaken cyber influence operations headed into the 2024 presidential election. In our last report, published on August 8, we detailed how Iranian cyber-enabled influence operations sought to undermine the Republican campaign through targeted hack-and-leak operations, covert social media personas, and imposter US news sites. In the past two months, Microsoft has observed a notable shift in Russian influence operations tactics reflecting the changing U.S. political environment. Specifically, we have observed Russia pivot towards targeting the Harris-Walz campaign, with actors disseminating fabricated videos designed to sow discord and spread disinformation about the new Democratic nominee Vice President Harris.  

We discuss this activity in a new report by the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center (MTAC) released today. This update follows other reports we have released around activity by actors advancing the geopolitical goals of Iran and China.   

The shift to focusing on the Harris-Walz campaign reflects a strategic move by Russian actors aimed at exploiting any perceived vulnerabilities in the new candidates. Initially, Russian influence operations struggled to evolve their efforts following President Biden’s departure from the 2024 US presidential race. However, in late August and September, we observed two Russian actors MTAC tracks closely — previously reported as Storm-1516 and Storm-1679 — using videos designed to discredit Harris and stoke controversy around her campaign. Specifically:  

  • Storm-1516, identified by news reports as a Kremlin-aligned troll farm, produced and disseminated two inauthentic videos, each generating millions of views. One video depicted an attack by alleged Harris supporters on a supposed Trump rally attendee, while another used an on-screen actor to fabricate false claims about Harris’s involvement in a hit-and-run accident. This second video was laundered through a website masquerading as a local San Francisco media outlet — which was only created days beforehand. 
  • Storm-1679, a newer group reportedly aligned with the Kremlin, pivoted its focus from producing content about the 2024 Paris Olympic Games to publishing false videos discrediting Vice President Harris. One of the videos, which was shared on X shortly after it was published to Telegram, depicted a fake New York City billboard advancing false claims about Harris’ policies. The X post received more than 100,000 views in the four hours after it was published on Telegram. 

As we inch closer to the election, we should expect Russian actors to continue to use cyber proxies and hacktivist groups to amplify their messages through media websites and social channels geared to spread divisive political content, staged videos, and AI-enhanced propaganda. The actions taken by the US government on September 4 mark an important and impactful step to protect against foreign influence targeting the upcoming US presidential election, and Microsoft suspended more than 20 active Microsoft email accounts created by the now sanctioned government-funded communications agency ANO Dialog. However, we have also observed actors attempting to create new infrastructure, with one threat actor already having moved media outlets from seized websites to new ones.  

Russia and Iran are not the only nation-states using influence operations to influence the election. A Chinese-linked influence actor Microsoft tracks as Storm-1852 successfully pivoted to short-form video content that criticizes the Biden administration and Harris campaign before some of its assets disappeared from social media following reports of its activity. While most Storm-1852 personas masquerade as conservative US voters voting for Trump, a handful of accounts also create anti-Trump content and use political slogans and hashtags associated with American progressive politics.  

Collectively, these three nation states — Iran, China and Russia — demonstrate the complexities of foreign interference that the US faces, and the need for the public to remain vigilant against these evolving threats. MTAC will continue to monitor this activity, and provide updates so voters, government institutions, candidates, parties, and others can be aware of influence campaigns and more resilient against foreign interference in democratic processes. As we’ve said before, our goal in releasing these reports is to promote education and protect institutions from any form of foreign interference. Microsoft will not endorse a candidate or political party.

Pokrovsk:

The Vampire heavy drone vs. russian targets in the Pokrovsk direction.
That’s why they call it “Baba Yaga”—a horrifying character from the folklore.

📹: 110th Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/sF9srsHWq0

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 17, 2024

As Russian forces continue their advance in the Pokrovsk front, long-standing systemic issues within the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to aid Russians with that. Based on numerous conversations with sergeants, as well as junior, and senior officers in command positions in the…

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 17, 2024

As Russian forces continue their advance in the Pokrovsk front, long-standing systemic issues within the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to aid Russians with that. Based on numerous conversations with sergeants, as well as junior, and senior officers in command positions in the Donbas region, I am writing this post the goal of highlighting the most common and consistent problems mentioned by people on the ground, per their request. Unfortunately, the higher command remains largely unresponsive to these concerns when raised internally.

1. Disconnect in Command and Combat Readiness

There is an apparent disconnect between higher command assessment and the actual combat readiness of units. In many cases, units with limited operational capacity are tasked with responsibilities far beyond their capabilities. For example, newly formed brigades with little battlefield experience are assigned to defend critical and high-risk areas of the frontline, where Russian forces have massed sufficient strength for a potential breakthrough. At the same time, more experienced and better-equipped brigades are stationed in less dangerous sectors.

This imbalance has allowed Russian forces to pinpoint weak spots along the frontline and exploit them, especially during unit rotations – something that they can track easily due to their ISR capabilities. The Ukrainian command, in turn, often scrambles to reallocate battalions from other areas to stabilize vulnerable areas that appeared from miscalculations.
While such actions can help to stabilize the line and even prevent a breakthrough, it leaves other parts of the frontline exposed, perpetuating a cycle of vulnerability.

For context, what may appear to higher-ups as “a company with 60% of its personnel ready for deployment” may, in reality, be a fatigued unit with multiple soldiers in their 40s and 50s or people with previous injuries and chronic health problems, as well as newly arrived recruits with minimal training. The true combat readiness may be closer to 30-40%, but on paper, commanders see a combat-ready unit

2. The Lack of Truth and Realistic Reporting

The previously discussed disconnect raises the question: Why don’t officers report their unit’s inability to perform certain missions? The answer is simple: Brigade commanders and senior officers are ultimately responsible for the combat and mobilization readiness of their units per regulations. Admitting that a unit cannot perform a task is often seen as a failure of brigade leadership. As a result, the command’s solution is simple: if a commander cannot ensure the unit’s readiness, someone else will be appointed to do so. But the situation with resources or combat readiness of unit doesn’t improve – you just put a person who is going to push under-resourced and under-prepared units to complete a task they are not equipped to handle, leading to failed operations, abandoned positions, failed defenses, and unnecessary casualties – something that people can witness themselves by looking at the Deep State map.

3. Systematic Problems with Recruitment and Training

The quality and quantity of new recruits continue to fall short of expectations. Although some training centers have made improvements, overall readiness remains alarmingly insufficient. Many newly arrived soldiers are not prepared for the realities of frontline combat, forcing brigades to develop and implement their own internal training programs. The situation demands systemic reforms, including the creation of a structure that leverages the expertise of veterans or those recovering from injuries to train and mentor incoming recruits.

4. Little to no Accountability

Three years into the war, Ukraine has yet to fully implement an After Action Review (AAR) process, which hasn’t been implemented except in cases where individual officers took the initiative. The tactical level is the highest level where it’s used.

The blame for operational failures often falls on mid-level officers, and in some cases, even soldiers on the ground. Even in rare cases, after public scandals, when generals are removed from their posts following catastrophic failures, they are typically reassigned to other command positions rather than being held accountable, leaving little room for new, younger, and more innovative officers to rise through the ranks.

This inability to change with essentially a petrified soviet hierarchy within Ukraine’s military leadership continues to generate previously mentioned problems.

Epilogue

Ultimately, these problems are rooted in systemic failures at the top. Poor decision-making, inefficient resource allocation, inadequate recruitment and training programs, and a fundamental lack of understanding of the conditions on the ground continue to plague the AFU. These are not the failures of soldiers or officers who are risking their lives daily on the ground, and who are frequently blamed by command for failures. These are the consequences of people incapable of either admitting the problem or building a plan to address these problems.

The toll of these problems is paid by those on the frontlines, who sacrifice their lives and health to protect their families and their country.

Yes, it’s times worse on the Russian side. The problem is that they have resources to cover these setbacks.

Ukraine doesn’t have such resources, nor we can expect the West to provide enough indefinitely.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 17, 2024

But wait, there’s more…

Marjorie Taylor Greene now proven to have promoted a completely fraudulent narrative written in Moscow in 2023.

Will there be consequences ? https://t.co/RAiSM2dWAh pic.twitter.com/yoMAwPk22H

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) September 17, 2024

Another item in the leaked documents cites a member of Putin’s presidential admin amazed that Americans believed their campaign about Ukrainian child organs being harvested.

This narrative was intended merely as a counter to Putin’s indictment for child abduction by the ICC but… https://t.co/Gfy3vlK17i pic.twitter.com/GU5phShBat

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) September 17, 2024

Another item in the leaked documents cites a member of Putin’s presidential admin amazed that Americans believed their campaign about Ukrainian child organs being harvested.

This narrative was intended merely as a counter to Putin’s indictment for child abduction by the ICC but then actually pushed by US politicians like Marjorie Taylor Greene.

Kharkiv:

A few thoughts on the fear of escalation while in Kharkiv: Russia is fueling the fear, building their entire strategy on threats and manipulation. This can be stopped—let Ukraine strike back pic.twitter.com/xOGOfekuPB

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 17, 2024

Someday, I hope we will be able to sleep the entire night without waking up every 20 minutes to check where russian deadly drones are heading😒
No big news outlets report it, but they attack Ukraine every single night.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 18, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

First, some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

Start your day with a sincere smile and share it with your friend.

📷: 127th TDF Brigade pic.twitter.com/YjdPAnKviW

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 17, 2024

Happy holiday to @PatronDsns and all Ukraine’s emergency workers @SESU_UA . Your bravery, professionalism and dedication to service is an inspiration to us all. З днем рятівника! pic.twitter.com/6LKZlKs0Dh

— Martin Harris (@MartinHarrisOBE) September 17, 2024

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 937: Ukraine Is Not Getting Authorization to Use Long Range Weapons Any Time SoonPost + Comments (17)

War for Ukraine Day 932: Russia Attacks a Turkish Operated Transport Vessel In the Black Sea

by Adam L Silverman|  September 12, 20248:32 pm| 31 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Israel, Military, Open Threads, Palestine, Russia, Silverman on Security, United Kingdom, War, War in Ukraine

Three quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing great, but she’d like the daily/multi-times a day thunder monsoons would stop. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, why is it still not Friday?

Third, I want to make an additional point above the fold. The strategic incoherence, inconsistency, and malpractice we’ve spent the past 31 months watching Biden’s senior natsec appointees demonstrate in regard to Ukraine and the past 11 months in regard to Israel, Hamas, and Gaza is because this natsec team was not put together to deal with any of this. They were put together to repair the foreign policy and national security damage created by Trump and his team of misfits, oddballs, amateurs, and weirdos. A lot of them were people that President Biden had worked with for decades, in some cases their whole careers were the result of working for and/or with him when he was in the Senate and/or the vice president. Others had been the junior to mid-level Obama appointees and their next stop were the senior level appointments in the next Democratic administration regardless of which Democrat was elected. There’s a club. They’re all in on that the major, ongoing threat to the US is a form of great power competition with the PRC. Which is why all of the US’s strategic documents give the PRC pride of place as an ever emerging threat despite the actual reality of the ongoing, enduring threats from Russia and the never ending, and unlikely to end in my lifetime, destructive volatility of the entire Middle East. A fair amount of which we’re responsible for because of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney’s stupid idea to invade Iraq in 2003.

What this team was not put together to do was serve as the senior natsec staff for a major, and frankly genocidal, interstate war in Europe, which is part of Russia’s ongoing world war against the US, the EU, and NATO, as well as Bibi Netanyahu’s megalomaniacal narcissism, his extremist coalition, Yahya Sinwar’s nihilism, and Hamas. Personnel is policy and these personnel were put into place to do something else. They are the wrong makes, models, and types to manage what the US and our allies and partners are currently facing and will continue to face for years to come. The result is that Putin and Russia, Bibi and his extremist partners, and Sinwar continually wrong foot the US. President Biden’s failure was not in appointing these people, they are all eminently qualified. His failure was not replacing them with the right makes, models, and types to handle the crises the US is currently and will continue to face.

President Zelenskyy and First Lady Zelenska both addressed the Fourth Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen today. Video of First Lady Zelenska’s address is below followed after the jump by the video and English transcript of President Zelenskyy’s address.

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Children’s Safety Is Everyone’s Concern Today – President’s Speech at the Fourth Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen

12 September 2024 – 19:54

Dear First Ladies and Gentlemen!

Dear Guests!

Ladies and Gentlemen!

First of all, I want to thank all of you, the First Lady of Ukraine, and all participants and guests of this Summit. Thank you for this productive day, for this extremely important event. Thank you for coming to Ukraine during these challenging times and for standing with us as we overcome them together. Now and in the past years, over the course of which this global platform has proven that it is a necessary venue where important voices from around the world are heard, an effective platform where crucial solutions are found and then implemented. It brings more protection to life and more justice to the world.

Thanks to your activity, dialogue and initiatives, and the fact that you act today as true ambassadors of the bright side of history, promoters of human values, and ambassadors of life.

And I congratulate all of you on holding this year’s Summit, the fourth one already. Despite the war, all the challenges, threats, and difficulties, Ukraine once again brings together First Ladies and Gentlemen from around the world. This is very important. We must not shy away from challenges but overcome them, we must not look away from threats. We must address difficult and pressing issues, seek out answers, and find them. We must keep the world’s attention on Ukraine and ensure the world does not forget, because it’s not just Ukraine under attack today, but the values of freedom and life globally. This year’s topic is children’s safety.

It’s hard to imagine two more polar, more opposite concepts than “war” and “children.” Unfortunately, in today’s world, there are those who have chosen the former – war. Aggressors, dictators – whatever you call them – they have chosen destruction over development. Ruthless and constant violations of children’s rights instead of protecting and caring for future generations.

This is the most painful aspect of war. The fact that children are the most vulnerable during war is not just words. It’s a fact. Nothing tugs at the heart more or sounds more terrifying than a child saying, “I’m scared.”

You can rebuild destroyed homes, restore the economy, rebuild infrastructure capacities, and clear territories scattered with enemy mines – you can do all that. But how do you give back a stolen childhood? Is there a “compensation mechanism” for taking away children’s peace and safety?

Recently, I was told a story. It was about a conversation between our warriors in a trench on the frontline. An experienced fighter who has been defending Ukraine since the very beginning of the occupation in 2014 praised his brother-in-arms for his bravery. They had just returned from a combat mission. Then he expressed regret that they hadn’t met earlier, as those qualities would have been very useful. He asked, “Where were you in 2015?” The brother-in-arms replied, “In 10th grade.”

I think this story is a tragedy. It’s reality. And I think there are many such stories among us: on the front lines, in civilian life. Unfortunately, far too many, because of this war that Putin has brought. Yesterday’s children are today’s warriors, defending their homeland and sacrificing their lives.

Some were in school, some had just entered university, and each of them had their childhood, youth, and part of their life stolen.

This is what happens if evil is not put in its place immediately. This is what happens when the world spends years thinking about red lines and searching for diplomatic solutions in dealing with those who have been undiplomatically killing, burning, and raping for years. For years, annexing, waging wars, and fighting them for as long as they need. And they will continue doing so. As long as the world is asleep. As long as some pretend to care. As long as some believe in the narrative that Putin is fighting Nazism in Ukraine or neo-Nazis of some kind. Which Nazis exactly? Today, in Kyiv, we are saying goodbye to our warrior, a fallen Ukrainian defender, the son of Ukraine’s Chief Rabbi, Moshe Azman. I want to express my condolences to him and to all those who have lost loved ones. Today, war affects everyone. It affects all of us in Ukraine, in Europe, and around the world. All of us: men, women, our parents, but above all, our children.

Ten days ago, Ukraine celebrated Knowledge Day – the start of the new school year. But the war has brought completely different kinds of knowledge to our country and our children. Knowledge that no child on this planet should have. Going to the first lesson to the sound of sirens, learning not just language, history, and math but also short routes to the bomb shelter, adapting to online education, adapting to studying in another country, in another language. This is difficult, too.

And the worst thing is not seeing your mother or father, when our families are separated because of a full-scale war that has been going on for almost three years. Our children born after February 24th have already learned to walk. They’ve already learned to speak. Unfortunately, war has taught them words like “alarm,” “attack,” “missiles,” “shelling,” “strikes,” “danger.”

These are challenges not meant for children. And that’s why today, our children ask questions of grown-ups: “Is it flying again?” “When can we go outside?” “Was that a hit or our air defense?” “When will dad come home?” “Why doesn’t God punish and take away this Putin?” And the most important question: “When will this war end?”

And this question comes from every child in Ukraine, from every single one. And it is a question for all of us, for all the adults on Earth. And it requires honest answers. It requires that we all be honest, especially with ourselves.

Because it’s easy to condemn a Russian missile hitting our school. But it’s not so easy to admit that the missile might contain parts made in America, Europe, Asia, or any other part of the world. There is a saying, “The devil is in the details.” Unfortunately, the example of these missiles proves this, in every sense of the phrase.

How is this possible? Why is this possible? And while it may be hard to admit, is it really that hard to fix, to stop, to resolve?

This Summit, in particular, and all the efforts of Ukraine and our allies in general, prove that the safety of children today concerns all of us: each and every one of us.

It should unite us, and it is uniting everyone today, regardless of any political levels. Leaders of nations, First Ladies and Gentlemen, international organizations and institutions, active, brave, and caring people from around the world. In general – adults, who must overcome challenges not meant for children.

Ukraine is determined to solve this issue. Ukraine knows the answers to all these questions. We offer our solutions to the world. Our Peace Formula, our victory plan, the Peace Summit – all contain just answers for a just end to the war. This is what should happen when the one who has encroached on the safety of children is held accountable for their actions, and when repeating such crimes in the future becomes impossible.

So that children in Ukraine and all over the world can have a happy childhood, so that loved ones are nearby, and families are not torn apart by this shameful war Russia has brought. So that the world never again sees pictures of a child’s room hit by a shell or a child being pulled out of the rubble after a missile strike. This war, and all wars, must become a thing of the past. This war, and all wars, must become a thing of the past.

Ukraine strives for this. Ukraine unites the world for this. Ukraine and the world must achieve this.

Once again, I thank all of you for organizing this Summit, for participating, for coming to Ukraine, and for fighting with us. We will surely win. We must.

Thank you for your attention!

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

У Центральній синагозі Києва попрощалися з Матітьягу Самборським — сином головного рабина України, який загинув на фронті.

Прощальні слова сказали його батько, головний рабин України Моше Асман, інші родичі та посол Ізраїлю в Україні Михайло Бродський. pic.twitter.com/oofQcMekxo

— Радіо Свобода (@radiosvoboda) September 12, 2024

Here’s the (machine) translation:

In the Central Synagogue of Kyiv, they said goodbye to Matityagu Samborsky, the son of the chief rabbi of Ukraine, who died at the front.

Farewell words were said by his father, the chief rabbi of Ukraine Moshe Asman, other relatives and the ambassador of Israel to Ukraine Mykhailo Brodskyi.

Matityahu Samborskyi, son of the Chief Rabbi of Ukraine Moshe Azman, died defending Ukraine. On September 12, his funeral took place in the central synagogue of Kyiv.

The rabbi shared that he and his wife adopted Matityahu in 2002. At that time, he was 11 years old and had the… pic.twitter.com/pbizT26dTq

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 12, 2024

Matityahu Samborskyi, son of the Chief Rabbi of Ukraine Moshe Azman, died defending Ukraine. On September 12, his funeral took place in the central synagogue of Kyiv.

The rabbi shared that he and his wife adopted Matityahu in 2002. At that time, he was 11 years old and had the name Anton. The new family gave him a Jewish name – Matityahu. In May of this year, the Defender’s daughter was born.

Eternal memory and eternal glory to Ukrainian Hero.

📷: Suspilne

May his memory be a blessing.

Lithuania:

Another round of M113 armored vehicles & SUVs from our Lithuanian friends.
We are grateful for your unwavering support!
Together until Victory!
🇺🇦🤝🇱🇹 https://t.co/E8nMDnqZnr

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 12, 2024

Romania:

I had a fruitful phone conversation with the Minister of National Defense of Romania, @AngelTilvar.

The main topic is strengthening Ukrainian skies’ protection from russian missiles and drones.

Ukraine will soon receive a new Patriot air defense system from our Romanian…

— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) September 12, 2024

I had a fruitful phone conversation with the Minister of National Defense of Romania, @AngelTilvar.

The main topic is strengthening Ukrainian skies’ protection from russian missiles and drones.

Ukraine will soon receive a new Patriot air defense system from our Romanian partners.

There will also be more F-16s in Ukrainian skies. A group of our pilots is already undergoing training in Romania.

I thanked my Romanian colleague, people, and government for supporting and strengthening our air defense.

We agreed to continue cooperation.

Together, to victory! 🇺🇦🇷🇴

Turkey:

Russian missile against a wheat cargo bound for Egypt. Tonight, Russia launched a strike on an ordinary civilian vessel in the Black Sea right after it left Ukrainian territorial waters. Fortunately, there were no casualties, according to preliminary reports.

Ukraine is one of… pic.twitter.com/nNCqNDVfJV

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) September 12, 2024

Russian missile against a wheat cargo bound for Egypt. Tonight, Russia launched a strike on an ordinary civilian vessel in the Black Sea right after it left Ukrainian territorial waters. Fortunately, there were no casualties, according to preliminary reports.

Ukraine is one of the key global food security guarantors. Domestic stability and normal life in dozens of countries around the world are dependent on the normal and unhindered operation of our food expert corridor.

Ukraine’s food deliveries to African and Middle Eastern countries are critical. We will continue to make every effort to safeguard our ports, the Black Sea, and food exports to global markets. This is Ukraine’s true priority—to protect life—and it should be the priority of all countries.

We are waiting for the world to react. Wheat and food security should never be targets for missiles.

Bulk carrier “Aya”, struck by a Russian missile earlier, now has a Romanian military/SAR plus another Romanian SAR vessel assisting it. https://t.co/T25brO5lkG pic.twitter.com/7xGcyXVNqw

— Andy Scollick (@Andy_Scollick) September 12, 2024

Now watch Erdogan taking revenge.

Unlike Scholz and Biden, Erdogan knows that putin will fold instantly if confronted militarily. https://t.co/WYLIpoOsrE

— Thomas C. Theiner (@noclador) September 12, 2024

Naval News has the details:

A Turkish operated merchant vessel, the MV Aya, has been hit by a Russian Kh-22 missile launched by a Tu-22M Backfire bomber. The Belize-owned, St. Kitts & Nevis flagged ship was sailing from the port of Chornomorsk, carrying 26,550 tons of grain for Egypt.

According to people familiar with the incident, the ship was hit by the missile at around 23:05 on September 11, 75km (46 miles) south of Snake Island. This places it in Romanian EEZ.

The Kh-22 missile, known by the NATO reporting name AS-4 Kitchen, is a very large anti-ship missile. It flies at Mach 4.6 (5,600 km/h; 3,500 mph) and carries a 1,000 kg (2,205 lb) warhead. This makes it much larger, and harder hitting, than Harpoon or Exocet class missiles. The missile was launched from a Russian Tu-22M Backfire bomber. Only Russia operates this aircraft or missile.

The missile was developed during the Cold War to attack aircraft carriers and other high-value targets. While old, it remains formidable. Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine Russia has employed it against ground targets, including Snake Island.

Modern merchant ships have proven very resilient to missiles, although the risk to the vessel and crew remains high. Context is everything. This is demonstrated by the Houthi Movement who have struck a number of vessels with ballistic missiles in the Red Sea, resulting in broadly similar damage.

More at the link!

My source with knowledge of this Russian missile attack on a grain ship that had left a Ukrainian port yesterday said that the attack occurred in Romania’s maritime economic zone. @FT https://t.co/C3aIbLWcE0 pic.twitter.com/zfphSvWwUC

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) September 12, 2024

So we’ve got a bulk grain carrier operated by a crew from Turkey, a NATO member, attacked in the territorial waters of Romania, also a NATO ally.

The US:

This would seem to reinforce the idea that the problem is with US targeting data required for certain sorts of Storm Shadow strikes. “A British defence source said that the UK did not need the support of other countries in Nato to go ahead.” https://t.co/1AMTbUIJD6

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) September 12, 2024

The Times has the details: (emphasis mine)

President Putin has warned Britain and the United States that they will be “at war” with Russia if they allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles to strike targets across the border.

Sir Keir Starmer and President Biden will hold talks on Friday in the White House about allowing Ukraine to use British-made Storm Shadow missiles against targets in Russia.

They are expected to reach an agreement within weeks after accusing Moscow of a “significant escalation” in the conflict as Russia bought more than 200 ballistic missiles from Iran for use against Ukraine.

But before the meeting, Putin told Russian state television on Thursday that the move would “change the very nature of the conflict” in a “significant” way forcing Moscow to respond. “It would mean that Nato countries are at war with Russia,” he said. “We will take the appropriate decisions based on the threats that we will face.”

Starmer immediately dismissed his warning. “Russia started this conflict,” he said as he travelled to Washington. “Russia illegally invaded Ukraine. Russia can end this conflict straight ­away. Ukraine has the right to self- defence, and obviously we’ve been ­absolutely fully supportive of Ukraine’s right to self-defence, providing training capabilities. But we don’t seek any ­conflict with Russia, that’s not our ­intention in the slightest. But they started this conflict, and Ukraine’s got a right to self-defence.”

In a significant shift in tone, Starmer and Biden are expected to hold talks on how to bring Putin’s invasion of Ukraine to an end.

Starmer will use a two-hour meeting in the White House with Biden to discuss how to bring about a “long-term solution” to the war, as well as the conflict in Gaza. The discussions represent a shift from the present policy of staying the course to one where there is some form of end to the conflict.

The UK and US are expected to agree to allow Ukraine to use British-made long-range Storm Shadow missiles and their French equivalent, Scalp missiles, against targets in Russia. However, Biden may stop short of allowing Ukraine to use US-made ATACMS — ballistic missiles — in Russia, according to two sources, amid concern about Putin’s response. Starmer confirmed that today’s meeting would address the “nature of that capability” but refused to be drawn on details.

The prime minister said: “We will, of course, be talking about many things in the round, but this is not a sort of a ­series of individual decisions that we want to arrive at. It is making sure that all the decisions we made are within the strategic context.”

Biden is understood to have been more reluctant than Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, who has become more aligned with Britain on the use of long-range missiles on Russian targets.

A western official said they believed the discussion in Washington would centre on “how do we use the remaining months of the Biden administration to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position by the end of the year”.

By increasing western support for Ukraine and relaxing rules around missile use, the UK hopes to give Zelensky a stronger hand in the build-up to any future deal with Putin. Areas of discussion on Friday are likely to include how to bring Putin to the table and whether Ukraine will accept a deal that agrees to relinquishing chunks of its territory in return for peace.

If Biden decides to go ahead with the option of just allowing Ukraine to fire British and French missiles inside Russia then he may disappoint his Ukrainian allies.

One Ukrainian military source criticised the idea of discussions rumbling on and the prospect of Biden allowing only certain long-range weapons to be used inside Russia.

The source said: “I think this war can’t be won or stopped by half measures. Every day costs us a number of human lives and destruction and we are always begging for obvious things needed for our survival. It’s not fair to buy time with human lives.”

More at the link.

It is this strategic incoherence and repeatedly demonstrated hesitance and cowardice that empowers Putin.

The list of things russia struck today include: a Red Cross vehicle, a wheat shipment bound for Egypt, the home of an 86-year-old woman in Borova, along with other houses and civilians there, and an apartment building in Konotop.

The list goes on, growing every day. The pressing…

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 12, 2024

The list of things russia struck today include: a Red Cross vehicle, a wheat shipment bound for Egypt, the home of an 86-year-old woman in Borova, along with other houses and civilians there, and an apartment building in Konotop.

The list goes on, growing every day. The pressing question remains: When will the world finally muster the courage to help us stop these terrorists?

Perfectly fair to raise escalation risks. My view: yes there is risk of Russian backlash to Ukr deep strikes with Western weapons. But 1/ there are costs to Russia enjoying blanket sanctuary on its soil & 2/ Ru attack on NATO risks full-scale war & risk of worse outcome for Ru. https://t.co/A43OtbZhCt

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) September 12, 2024

Russia has increased pressure on West for last 18 months via sabotage & subversion in Europe. Partly but not wholly an effort to coerce end to Ukr aid & deter escalation of aid. Ru response to deep strikes surely likelier to be intensification of this campaign, not direct attack.

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) September 12, 2024

Putin, like the Russian leaders before him with the exception, perhaps, of Gorbachev, look for weakness and then exploit it wherever it is found.

Russia wouldn’t stand a chance.
Which is why they would not do this.

As Kennan said back in ‘47, the “towers of the Kremlin cast long shadows that move the hearts & sway the deeds of statesmen” “rather than the substance of things.”

Don’t fall for Putin’s BS bluff. https://t.co/2KZV49viZS

— Benjamin Tallis 🇺🇦 (@bctallis) September 12, 2024

Kennan’s Long Telegram is still prescient and spot on.

The Black Sea:

Last flight of the russian Su-30SM jet.

A video released by @DI_Ukraine shows the destruction of a russian plane over the Black Sea. The cost of an aircraft is $50 million. pic.twitter.com/mtH3eC6JcS

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 12, 2024

Russian Su-30SM was downed from MANPADS during one of the operations in the Black Sea, official statement from the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine:

“During the operation in the waters of the Black Sea, the soldiers of the special unit of the Main Directorate of… https://t.co/tF8PmAxbxt pic.twitter.com/JPsoiPND78

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 12, 2024

Russian Su-30SM was downed from MANPADS during one of the operations in the Black Sea, official statement from the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine:

“During the operation in the waters of the Black Sea, the soldiers of the special unit of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine destroyed a Russian Su-30SM combat aircraft with a MANPADS hit.

The fighter that fell into the sea belonged to the 43rd Independent Naval Attack Aviation Regiment of the Russian Armed Forces, which is based at the airfield of the city of Saki in the temporarily occupied Crimea.

The Russians lost contact with their battleship on September 11, 2024 around 5 am. Roughly three hours later, Russians launched a search and rescue operation involving the An-26 aircraft, as well as Mi-8 and Ka-27 helicopters.

At lunchtime, Russians reported to the command about a characteristic stain from aviation fuel discovered in the sea, 70 kilometers northwest of Cape Tarkhankut, and soon they also saw the wreckage of the destroyed Su-30SM.”

https://t.me/DIUkraine/4406

Kharkiv:

With two glide bombs.

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) September 12, 2024

Earlier today, russia struck Kharkiv with glide bombs, destroying or damaging 15 households. https://t.co/YPtAi1jdNG pic.twitter.com/e73kcbXMVm

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 12, 2024

Borova, Kharkiv Oblast:

Rescuers have freed an 86-year-old woman from the rubble of a residential building in Borova, Kharkiv region, that was hit by a russians tonight.

The injured woman has been hospitalized, according to the State Emergency Service pic.twitter.com/SObjtzEMzf

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 12, 2024

Konotop, Sumy Oblast:

14 people were injured in last night’s russian attack on an apartment building Konotop, Sumy region. https://t.co/4sjcyHuF8S pic.twitter.com/5zqOU6aKgx

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 12, 2024

Kreminna:

The combat operations of the Azov brigade in the Kreminna direction from a first-hand perspective.
Our warriors are performing truly heroic missions. pic.twitter.com/iMzNbJkAXz

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 11, 2024

Pokrovsk:

❗️Pokrovsk was left without gas and water.

A filtration station ceased operating due to combat, and it’s impossible to get it working again. Drinking water is brought to people.

Russian troops also destroyed a gas distribution station.

Today, Russians destroyed a bridge… pic.twitter.com/Umd7htGDEY

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 12, 2024

❗️Pokrovsk was left without gas and water.

A filtration station ceased operating due to combat, and it’s impossible to get it working again. Drinking water is brought to people.

Russian troops also destroyed a gas distribution station.

Today, Russians destroyed a bridge between Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

People continue evacuating from a city to which a war has approached.

Virolyubivka, Donetsk Oblast:

Three citizens of Ukraine, employees of the ICRC, were killed and two injured in artillery shelling by the Russian Federation on the village of Virolyubivka in Donetsk region!

The @ICRC must officially recognize Russia’s violation of the norms of the Geneva Conventions! pic.twitter.com/ovyqQU8EL3

— Dmytro Lubinets (@lubinetzs) September 12, 2024

I don’t even know why the Red Cross refuses to name the aggressor, who killed 3 of their staff in Ukraine today. Out of fear to lose the access to prisoners of war held in russia, who they never visited anyway? Spineless cowards https://t.co/D54uXi4jHR

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 12, 2024

Speaking of cowardice, the ICRC has not covered itself in glory in Ukraine. Nor in Gaza. Nor Sudan. Nor anywhere else lately.

Not quite sure where in Ukraine this is:

46th Brigade of Ukraine repulsed the biggest assault on the Brigades position. 46 units of Russian AFVs were used in the assault:

“On September 12, Russians attacked with four waves of assaults from 5:45 a.m. to noon on the positions of the battalions of 46th Brigade. A total… pic.twitter.com/2isXk2j665

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 12, 2024

46th Brigade of Ukraine repulsed the biggest assault on the Brigades position. 46 units of Russian AFVs were used in the assault:

“On September 12, Russians attacked with four waves of assaults from 5:45 a.m. to noon on the positions of the battalions of 46th Brigade. A total of 46 units of armored and not so armored vehicles fell on us.

And the record was set! Such a number of destroyed and damaged enemy equipment in one day in the direction of responsibility of the 46th Brigade has never really happened. With effective fire from all available means of destruction 15 units (9 BMPs, 2 tanks, 2 APCs and 2 motorcycles) were destroyed and 11 BMPs were disabled.”

https://t.me/oaembr46/1012

The Kursk cross border offensive:

So after five weeks, Russia has launched its counteroffensive in Kursk. Key takeaways:

– Ukrainian troops made early gains, but it was always a question of when and what reserves Russia would deploy.
– Kursk showcases Ukraine’s ability to effectively wear down Russian forces.
-… pic.twitter.com/MiM17AwC12

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 12, 2024

So after five weeks, Russia has launched its counteroffensive in Kursk. Key takeaways:

– Ukrainian troops made early gains, but it was always a question of when and what reserves Russia would deploy.
– Kursk showcases Ukraine’s ability to effectively wear down Russian forces.
– Ukrainian forces are experiencing increased pressure as Russia brings in more reinforcements.
– Cross-border raids will likely continue to be effective for exposing weak points in Russian defenses.
– It’s too early to make a clear assessment of how large or fast the Russian counteroffensive might be.

More from Estonian reserve Soldier Artur Rehi:

After the loud announcement of the Russian counteroffensive in the Kursk region, the news from the Russian side has died down. The Russian Defense Ministry reports “the destruction of 12,000 Ukrainian soldiers,” but there is no video, no photos, no statements about regaining
1/11Image
control over major settlements. Putin gave the order to recapture the Kursk region by October 1, but the counteroffensive is stalling. Ukrainian soldiers write in Telegram that heavy fighting is underway, not without losses, but the counterattack was expected and
2/11Image
the Russians were expected. Russia has now switched from bombing to frontal attacks, which allows for greater resource losses. Ukraine expected and prepared for this step and to inflict serious damage on the advancing troops. Apparently, Syrskyi plan has begun to work and
3/11Image
Russia has transferred resources to the Kursk region and will transfer more to fulfill Putin’s decree. If this becomes a priority for the Russian army, then we can expect a decrease in the intensity of Russia’s offensive in the Donetsk region. The offensive on Pokrovsk has
4/11Image
already started to stall, but this is compared to August. Russia is still storming there every day and there are very difficult battles. Autumn has come and soon it will be more difficult to conduct military operations. Especially to conduct an offensive. If Russia does
5/11Image
not recapture the Kursk region before the rains start, it will be more difficult for it to do so. It will be even more difficult to do so if Ukraine starts to strike deep into Russia. Apparently, Great Britain is lifting restrictions on the use of Storm Shadow deep into
6/11Image
Russian territory and there is talk of the United States making the same decision. Most likely, the missiles supplied will have a range of about 250 kilometers, because this is an export version, but within this radius there are many juicy targets for Ukrainian missiles.
7/11Image
Logistics, airfields in Rostov-on-Don, Voronezh, Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk, troop columns – this is only a small list of targets that Ukraine can hit first. If talk of lifting restrictions turns out to be true, it will be another problem added to the huge list of difficulties
8/11Image
in Russia. The red lines are over, the nuclear scarecrow does not work, the economy is at the limit and is about to collapse, resources are depleted. The equipment is running out, but there are still people. But in 2 years there is no longer a professional army and the army
9/11Image
consists of cripples, alcoholics, criminals and old men with conscripts. But this army also causes colossal damage. It is precisely because of this composition that it has no morality and leaves behind a trail of war crimes and scorched earth. Although the “professional
10/11Image
army” in Russia is not much different from this. But the crisis in the Russian army and management is growing. This is a downward spiral that cannot be stopped and sooner or later Russia will fall into a free fall to the bottom.
11/11Image

More detailed video of the destruction of the Russian Zemledelie remote mine-laying system by the 78th Separate Battalion of Ukraine. https://t.co/BXfozemur8 https://t.co/ZPdUiB0lqL pic.twitter.com/yaWhm4ovwL

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 12, 2024

Captured Russian T-72B3M obr.2022, somewhere in the Kursk region. https://t.co/UbmqDKDpH7 pic.twitter.com/QC2ezd5ded

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 12, 2024

 

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Here is some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

Don’t hang your nose!
All will be great.

📷: 117th Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/UTZaTnPcBd

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 12, 2024

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok.

@patron__dsns

❤️

♬ som original – vih_a.r

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 932: Russia Attacks a Turkish Operated Transport Vessel In the Black SeaPost + Comments (31)

War for Ukraine Day 931: Lessons from Alice

by Adam L Silverman|  September 11, 20249:25 pm| 26 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Iran, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, United Kingdom, War, War in Ukraine

An illustrated page from Alice in Wonderland. Alice is in the foreground left with her back to the reader. The Cheshire cat is on a tree branch above her and to the right. Below the Cheshire cat is the following text with Alice asking the Cheshire Cat "Would you tell me please, which way I should go from here?" The Cheshire Cat replies: "That depends a good deal on where you want to get to." To which Alice replies "I don't much care where --" The Cheshire cat then replies "Then it doesn't matter which way you go."

Three quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing great. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, how/why is it only Wednesday?

Third, air raid alerts are up over all of eastern and central Ukraine as of 8:05 PM EDT/3:05 PM local time in Ukraine. No indication on the air raid alert maps of Russian strategic aviation up. Yet.

Despite everyone’s expectations, hopes, wishcasting, Secretary Blinken and Foreign Minister Lammy did not go to Ukraine today to provide Ukraine permission to use long ranger US and British weapons systems and munitions against legitimate military targets that Russia has moved farther east.

Asked about Ukraine use of long-range missiles to strike Russia, Blinken says, “[W]e have adjusted and adapted as needs have changed… and I have no doubt that we’ll continue to do tha…” Says he will share what he has learned with Biden, who meets with Starmer Friday in DC.

— Olivia Gazis (@Olivia_Gazis) September 11, 2024

As U.S.-UK-Ukraine joint presser ends and delegations depart, air raid sirens sound over Kyiv – pic.twitter.com/AhgEZW55il

— Olivia Gazis (@Olivia_Gazis) September 11, 2024

Reuters has more details:

KYIV, Sept 11 (Reuters) – The U.S. and British foreign ministers met President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Wednesday on a visit interrupted by air raid warnings, unveiling new support but no breakthrough on the long-range strikes into Russia desperately sought by Ukraine.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and British foreign minister David Lammy, in Kyiv at a critical juncture in Ukraine’s struggle against Russia, said they talked about Ukraine’s war goals and what they could do to help.

“Among other things, we discussed long-range fires, but a number of other things as well. And as I said at the outset, I’m going to take that discussion back to Washington to brief the president on what I heard,” Blinken told reporters.

Zelenskiy has been pleading with Kyiv’s allies for months to let Ukraine fire Western missiles including long-range U.S. ATACMS and British Storm Shadows deep into Russian territory to limit Moscow’s ability to launch attacks.

“We are listening carefully and, of course, we are having discussions on a range of issues, including the military equipment that Ukraine needs to win,” Lammy told a news conference alongside Blinken and Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha.

The British foreign minister suggested those discussions could continue for a few more weeks, a remark that will disappoint Ukrainians hoping the West would quickly discard fears of escalation.

Ahead of the news conference, Zelenskiy was asked whether he was optimistic the United States and Britain would greenlight deeper strikes into Russia, and he quipped that it depended instead on the “optimism” of Ukraine’s partners.

“Let’s count on some strong decisions at least. For us it’s very important for today,” he told reporters in Kyiv.

In a comment posted on his Telegram channel, Zelenskiy described the talks as “long and meaningful”.

“All the key issues were discussed,” he wrote.

“What’s important is that all the Ukrainian arguments were heard. And that concerns long-range weaponry, supplying our front-line brigades and the general strategy of moving strategically towards a just peace.”There is nervousness in Washington and some European capitals that lifting the restrictions on long-range attacks could provoke Russia towards a direct conflict with the West, at the same time as a recognition that Ukraine needs more help if it is to swing the war in its favour.

The speaker of Russia’s lower house of parliament, Vyacheslav Volodin, said Moscow would consider the United States and its allies to be parties to the war if they allowed Kyiv to use long-range weapons to strike deep in Russia.Overnight,

U.S. President Joe Biden suggested there was room for compromise, saying his administration was “working that out now” when asked if the United States would lift the restrictions on the use of long-range weapons.

The air raid alert sounded twice during Blinken and Lammy’s visit to Kyiv, before and after the news conference. A wreath-laying ceremony they were due to attend was cancelled.
Both alerts appeared to have been sounded over ballistic missile threats, but it was unclear what any missile had been targeting or what happened to the missiles.

More at the link!

We’re now almost three years into Russia’s genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine and ten and a half years into the initial invasion and the US DOES NOT have an actual strategy for Ukraine! Major General (ret) Mick Ryan wrote about that today and we’ll cover his assessment after the jump, but I’ll just reiterate that the lack of clearly articulated policy and a properly developed strategy that is feasible, suitable, and acceptable is why the Biden administration cannot seem to get its act together regarding Ukraine.

President Zelenskyy addressed the fourth Summit of the International Crimea Forum. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

Ukraine Does Not Trade Its Land and Does Not Abandon Its People – Speech by the President at the Fourth Summit of the International Crimea Platform

11 September 2024 – 17:57

Dear attendees, dear participants, guests, our partners, friends!

Thank you very much for being with us today.

Mr. Mustafa Dzhemilev, all representatives of the Mejlis!

Dear Crimean Tatar people! All our Ukrainian people!

Today we have Nariman Dzhelyal with us. A man who is well known in Ukraine. The Deputy Chairman of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people. By the way, he is a participant of our First Summit of the Crimea Platform. Like many other people whose hearts belong to Crimea and Ukraine, the Russian occupiers tried to deprive him of his home and captured Nariman as a prisoner. They captured him and kept him behind bars for almost three years. But Ukraine does not forget its prisoners and it has not forgotten Nariman Dzhelyal. We freed him, brought him home, brought him back to Ukraine, and gave him back his freedom. And this is not just about one person. This is about our fundamental policy. The policy of our state, the policy on Crimea. The policy on all our temporarily occupied territory and on all our Ukrainian citizens who have been deprived of their freedom by Russia. We will not leave anything or anyone in captivity. I would like all our citizens in Ukraine and in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine to hear this – no matter where you are now, and no matter how difficult it is for you. This is part of our morality. Ukraine does not trade its land and does not abandon its people. And when we work with the world for a just end to this war, we remind them not only of the land that now – temporarily – bears the occupier’s tricolor, but also of people’s fates that cannot be left destroyed. We in Ukraine do not forget many people. And today at the Memorial I remembered many of them, we remembered them. And we must do it all the time: remind the world, remind the loved ones and families of our prisoners that we know, we remember, and we fight for them. We remember Server Mustafayev, Leniye Umerova, Amet Suleymanov, Tofik Abdulhaziiev, Vladyslav Yesypenko, and all other Crimean prisoners – prisoners of Russia.

And the same way we remember all our people – civilians and military, adults and children – who are now in Russian captivity, or who may not be behind bars, but who are unfortunately forced to go through the humiliation of occupation – one of the greatest abuses for any free person. This is the evil that should have remained forever in the distant past, but which Russia has brought to this time, taking human lives. I ask everyone present here to observe a minute of silence to honor the memory of our people who were killed by the Russian war, who were killed by Russia in captivity, in occupation, during deportation.

Thank you.

Dear friends!

Every our citizen, all our people on all the temporarily occupied Ukrainian land, all our people who are in captivity and waiting for their release, should see the most important thing – our Ukrainian flag. To see it, to feel freedom, because they will be liberated. And also, our whole country deserves reliable, guaranteed security; and the occupier must inevitably be held accountable for all the crimes of war. All this should be a just end to the war. I want to thank all those who make this happen, who fight and work for Ukraine, for their native home. I thank all our partners – those who are present, and those who are helping us, but are not here now. Those who are really with us all the time, supporting us; and I urge everyone not to waste time, and not to miss opportunities. And I appeal to the members of the Crimea Platform: we need maximum support to bring people back from captivity and to stop all Russian abuses.

Why are Crimean Tatars persecuted in the occupied Crimea? Why have there been 10 years of repression against Muslims and many others who just want to live their lives freely? Why are most of the people in Russian captivity brutally tortured? We cannot turn a blind eye to all this. And I urge, first of all, the states of our region, and these are Muslim societies – both Türkiye and Azerbaijan –please, show your leadership and help us stand up against injustice and abuse. You need to be heard. We desperately need your voices. Especially to counter the evil that Russia is doing to the Crimean Tatar people. And we urge the countries that are working to implement the Peace Formula – and there are already almost a hundred countries from all parts of the world: convince your partners who are still holding back from working with us – convince them that true peace must have no alternatives. No frozen occupations! No people left behind in captivity! No repressions forgotten and thus seemingly forgiven by the world. When we remember the victims of the deportation of the Crimean Tatar people and today, we opened the Memorial in Kyiv that will preserve the memory of this crime against the people, we affirm that no crime of the occupier should remain unanswered. When we insist on a just end to the war, when we remind the world that the occupation of our Crimea was the beginning of this war, we fight for international law and the security of every nation. When our warriors liberate the Black Sea from Russia’s military presence, we prove to everyone in the world that there are no omnipotent aggressors. And when our Ukrainian drones and missiles, our warriors, deprive the occupier of its tranquility, we all feel that tranquility will definitely return to Ukraine and for Ukraine. And we all want peace together. We all need security together. So, we all have to work together to advance Ukraine’s victory – a truly lasting peace. I am confident: we will be able to achieve this – to achieve real peace, just peace, and above all lasting peace. We see it. And we will see, I am sure, a free Crimea.

I want to thank you all once again for always standing with Ukraine! Glory to all our warriors, to all our people!

Glory to Ukraine!

And here’s the video of President Zelenskyy’s remarks at the opening of the Memorial to the Victims of the Crimean Tatar Genocide.

On behalf of the Ukrainian people, I extend our heartfelt condolences to the families and close ones of the 9/11 victims.

We join our key ally, the United States, and the entire American people in today’s commemoration of those who perished as a result of this heinous crime. We… pic.twitter.com/SgFb6nH7hG

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) September 11, 2024

On behalf of the Ukrainian people, I extend our heartfelt condolences to the families and close ones of the 9/11 victims.

We join our key ally, the United States, and the entire American people in today’s commemoration of those who perished as a result of this heinous crime. We honor all of those who worked tirelessly in the aftermath of the attack to help others, often sacrificing their lives to do so.

We mourn alongside you, our American friends. We, Ukrainians, are all too familiar with the pain and grief of families who have lost loved ones as a result of terror.

We are determined to defend our common values against terror and aggression. Every peace-loving nation and every family deserves to live in safety. We must and will stand together with our allies to ensure this. Terror must never go unpunished.

The cost:

Tomorrow in the Central Synagogue there will be a farewell to my son Matityagi (Anton), who died at the front defending Ukraine pic.twitter.com/b93bNAxPxj

— Chief Rabbi Of Ukraine Moshe Azman (@RabbiUkraine) September 11, 2024

Lithuania:

Lithuania is providing 10 million euros to finance our long-range capabilities, including the Palanytsia rocket-drone. This is a huge support that will help Ukraine defend itself even more effectively. — minister @rustem_umerov.

We are grateful to our Lithuanian friends for… pic.twitter.com/nddJWUgdS5

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 11, 2024

Lithuania is providing 10 million euros to finance our long-range capabilities, including the Palanytsia rocket-drone. This is a huge support that will help Ukraine defend itself even more effectively. — minister
@rustem_umerov.

We are grateful to our Lithuanian friends for their staunch support!
🇺🇦🤝🇱🇹

Germany:

⚡️ Zelenskyy: “I know nothing about Scholz’s peace plan. There can be no plans for us without Ukraine, and I’m not sure that such plans even exist,”

📷: @APUkraine pic.twitter.com/VWBfBRybnf

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) September 11, 2024

That should leave a mark, but I’m not sure you can shame the shameless.

The UK:

In his first visit to Kyiv UK Foreign Secretary will announce at least £600 million worth of support to Ukraine

-£242 million announced for 2024 to 2025 for immediate humanitarian, energy and stabilisation needs as well as support to reforms, recovery and reconstruction.

-$484… pic.twitter.com/ftpiXgTTJI

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 11, 2024

In his first visit to Kyiv UK Foreign Secretary will announce at least £600 million worth of support to Ukraine

-£242 million announced for 2024 to 2025 for immediate humanitarian, energy and stabilisation needs as well as support to reforms, recovery and reconstruction.

-$484 million worth of loan guarantees for World Bank lending before the end of the year, to bolster Ukraine’s economic stability.

Foreign Secretary David Lammy said:
“The UK’s support to Ukraine is unwavering. Our commitment of over £600 million worth of support is the latest installment in our enduring support to Ukraine. This will provide vital support to Ukrainians as they continue to endure relentless Russian attacks.”

https://gov.uk/government/news/uk-foreign-secretary-and-us-secretary-of-state-in-kyiv-in-first-ever-joint-visit-as-david-lammy-announces-over-600-million-worth-of-support-for-ukra

The US:

Let’s start with the better news:

US Secretary of State, during his visit to Kyiv announced the allocation of humanitarian aid to Ukraine in the total amount of more than $700 million:

-$325 million to restore Ukrainian energy infrastructure and power grids;

-$290 million to provide basic services – including… pic.twitter.com/XmkFWPT5QD

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 11, 2024

US Secretary of State, during his visit to Kyiv announced the allocation of humanitarian aid to Ukraine in the total amount of more than $700 million:

-$325 million to restore Ukrainian energy infrastructure and power grids;

-$290 million to provide basic services – including safe drinking water, food and medicine – to millions of people who have been forced to flee their homes;

-$102 million for humanitarian demining.

https://eurointegration.com.ua/news/2024/09/11/7193997/

European Pravda has the details: (machine translated)

During a visit to Kyiv on Wednesday, September 11, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken announced the allocation of humanitarian and other assistance to Ukraine totaling more than $ 700 million.

He said this at a press conference together with the heads of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine and Great Britain, according to “European Truth”.

Blinken stressed that Russia is once again trying to attack Ukrainian energy, “to use the cold as a weapon against the Ukrainian people.”

“That is why today we are announcing the allocation of $ 325 million in new funding for the restoration of Ukrainian energy and electricity networks,” – he announced, adding that a meeting of the Group of Seven Plus will be held in the near future, also dedicated to helping Ukraine’s energy.

The US Secretary of State also announced $ 290 million in humanitarian support to provide basic services – including safe drinking water, food and medicine – to millions of people in Ukraine and the region who have been forced to flee their homes.

“Finally, we are announcing the allocation of $ 102 million in additional funding for humanitarian demining to help neutralize landmines and ammunition left by Russia throughout Ukraine,” Blinken added.

It will be recalled that the heads of US and British diplomatic missions Anthony Blinken and David Lemmy on Wednesday arrived together in Kyiv.

Against this background, Britain announced the selection at least £ 242 million to support Ukraine in the face of ongoing Russian attacks, as well as the deployment of $ 484 million in financial support and military equipment.

If you’re wondering why the Secretary of State had to go to Kyiv to announce this, I’ll remind everyone that the Federal fiscal year ends on 30 September. If you do not spend all of your travel budget, or any other part of your budget, by the end of the fiscal year, you don’t get as much next year. Of course, that is predicated on Congress actually passing the legislation to fund the US government past 30 September 2024.

In less good news.

‼️ In a separate letter, a group of key House Republicans also urged Joe Biden to let Ukraine strike targets deep inside Russia. “The administration’s concerns about escalation have been consistently invalidated since Day One of the war. Neither Ukraine’s use of U.S.-provided… pic.twitter.com/LX3zxSbRLD

— Ostap Yarysh (@OstapYarysh) September 11, 2024

Here’s the full text of both tweets from Voice of American News reporter Ostap Yarysh:

‼️ In a letter to @POTUS, a bipartisan group of lawmakers from the Congressional Ukraine Caucus called to lift restrictions on striking inside Russia with long-range weapons. “We write to request that you immediately end limitations on Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons provided by the US and other NATO allies to strike legitimate military targets inside Russia. … [These restrictions] are inconsistent with those that we would ever accept for our own operations or those we place on other security partners who use American weapons to defend their sovereignty and people, such as Israel.”

‼️ In a separate letter, a group of key House Republicans also urged Joe Biden to let Ukraine strike targets deep inside Russia. “The administration’s concerns about escalation have been consistently invalidated since Day One of the war. Neither Ukraine’s use of U.S.-provided weapons in Russia nor its military incursion into Russia’s Kursk region – the first foreign occupation of Russian territory since World War II – have triggered a Russian escalatory response.”

Here’s the actual letters.

As I indicated above, Australian Major General (ret) Mick Ryan dove deep into the fact that the Biden administration has gone almost three years without a strategy for Ukraine.

In the past 24 hours, it has been reported that the Biden administration has finally submitted a strategy for supporting #Ukraine to the U.S. Congress. What is the current U.S. strategy for Ukraine, what might the new strategy look like and will it influence on the trajectory of the war? 1/19 🧵Image
2/ Currently, there is no published U.S. strategy specifically for the war in #Ukraine. After 31 months, the Biden administration is still using crisis management, speeches and slogans such as ‘for as long as it takes’ rather than developing and executed a clear, well resourced strategy for Ukraine. 
3/ The key elements of the U.S. approach since the beginning of the war have been: 1. Providing military assistance to Ukraine; 2. Rallying international support to provide economic, humanitarian & military aid; 3. Leading development & implementation of economic sanctions; & 4. Avoiding a war between the U.S. & Russia. 

4/ The lack of a clear U.S. strategy for #Ukraine is hardly a new issue. Several organisations have proposed strategies for the U.S. approach to the war. In May this year, the Center for Strategic and International Studies proposed a plan for Victory in Ukraine encompassing five strategic initiatives.

Victory in Ukraine Starts with Addressing Five Strategic ProblemsThe new assistance package passed by Congress requires the administration to produce a U.S. strategy for supporting Ukraine. This piece outlines five key issues this strategy should address.https://www.csis.org/analysis/victory-ukraine-starts-addressing-five-strategic-problems
5/ What might an explicit U.S. strategy seek to achieve, and what might its major components be? In essence, what will be the purpose of the strategy and its key lines of effort? 
6/ The most important element of the strategy will be the purpose of U.S. support that is described in the document. Based on a realistic diagnosis of Ukrainian and Russian capacity, and the current situation in the war, the purpose should include a clear vision of the outcome, or the end state, of the war that the U.S. seeks. 
7/ The strategy might employ existing statements on Ukraine such as a 2022 opinion piece from the U.S. President. Biden wrote in a May 2022 New York Times op-ed about Ukraine that “America’s goal is straightforward: We want to see a democratic, independent, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine with the means to deter and defend itself against further aggression.” 
8/ However, a clear end state is insufficient. What strategic tasks might be needed to achieve this? 
9/ Just ‘defending Ukraine’ is insufficient. The new U.S. strategy, if it is to have any impact, must shift to ‘defeat Russia in Ukraine’ as a key objective. This will influence thinking in Europe and message Putin that he will not be allowed to ‘win by waiting out’ the West. It should also inform the amount and pace of support for Ukraine. 
10/ Another objective must be to sustain the international coalition that is supporting Ukraine. Across an array of military and economic support initiatives, this coalition is providing an enormous amount of support to Ukraine and this need to be sustained, if not increased in size and speed of delivery. 
11/ A third objective should be investment in defence industry to hasten support to Ukraine, rebuild U.S. war stocks and to deter Chinese adventurism. This might include increased defence production in the US, and among its allies, as well as additional sanctions and covert action to interfere with defence production in Russia and unfriendly nations. 
12/ A 4th objective will be achieving increased diplomatic support for Ukraine from the international community and lessen the tendency of fence-sitting nations to tacitly support Russia through procuring cheap energy or not supporting Ukraine in the United Nations. Related to this must be increased efforts to counter Russian misinformation, and its amplification by countries such as China. 
13/ These objectives would underpin ‘winning the war’. But a U.S. strategy should also anticipate and support Ukraine ‘winning the peace’. 
14/ Winning the Peace objectives would include security guarantees for Ukraine (including support for its entry into NATO and bilateral arrangements), support for reconstruction in Ukraine and the support for pursuing and prosecuting Russian war criminals. Collectively, this will probably be a decades long undertaking. 
15/ Nothing in this proposed strategy is simple, cheap or quick. But that is not what strategy is about. 
16/ The U.S. will need to move beyond policies and statements which provide instant gratification to a strategy that underpins a theory of victory for Ukraine, guarantees its long-term security – and provides reassurance for other U.S. allies about the capacity and reliability of the U.S. in Europe and other parts of the world. 
17/ Time will tell whether the new U.S. strategy shifts thinking about U.S. support for Ukraine. It could be a consequential document that sets a different and more audacious policy for U.S. support to Ukraine. Alternatively, it might be just more of what we have seen in the past 31 months, and then die a quiet death in early 2025. 
18/ But, once it is leaked, which is almost certain, many will be watching for insights to hopefully answer a key question that remains unclear at present: does the U.S really want Ukraine to win? Read my full article on this topic here: mickryan.substack.com/p/a-us-strateg…
Image

A U.S. Strategy for Ukraine…FinallyA Ukraine strategy has apparently been delivered to the U.S. Congress. What might this U.S. strategy look like and what impact will it have?https://mickryan.substack.com/p/a-us-strategy-for-ukrainefinally
19/ Thank you to the following for the links and images used in this thread: @DefenceU @CSIS 

The Biden administration is definitely in Lessons from Alice territory.

Alice: “Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?”

The Cheshire Cat: “That depends a good deal on where you want to get to.”

Alice: “I don’t much care where.”

The Cheshire Cat: “Then it doesn’t much matter which way you go.”

Alice: “…so long as I get somewhere.”

The Cheshire Cat: “Oh, you’re sure to do that, if only you walk long enough.”

We used to use the above in Seminar 12 at USAWC. We applied these lessons in the following way:

If you don’t know where you’re going, it really doesn’t matter which path you take.

If you don’t know where you’re going, you probably won’t know if you’ve arrived.

If you don’t know where you’re going, no matter where you are… you’re there.

If you don’t know where you are, you probably can’t chart a course to where you want to go.

Decisiveness comes from knowing the desired endstate!

In World War II, the U.S. made the right choice by helping liberate Europe, turning Europe into one of the most prosperous places on Earth. If Ukraine falls to Russia, a possibility more real than many pro-Ukrainians think, it will undermine the US-created postwar order.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 11, 2024

After watching Blinken/Lammy presser, with ballistic missiles threat over Kyiv, I’ve got one question: how many more Ukrainians have to be butchered by Russia before we’re allowed to hit back? Words of support won’t win this war. We need the right to defend ourselves. That simple pic.twitter.com/RG39IMEl50

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 11, 2024

The DPRK:

North Korea has continued to supply advanced short-range ballistic missiles, specifically the Hwasong-11, to Russia despite sanctions. Investigators from Conflict Armament Research, who analyzed remnants of these missiles in Kyiv on September 3, found that at least one missile… pic.twitter.com/B2YNQL69cQ

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) September 11, 2024

North Korea has continued to supply advanced short-range ballistic missiles, specifically the Hwasong-11, to Russia despite sanctions. Investigators from Conflict Armament Research, who analyzed remnants of these missiles in Kyiv on September 3, found that at least one missile used in an August 18 attack was produced this year. Missiles from July and August lacked clear manufacturing dates.

https://nytimes.com/2024/09/11/us/russia-north-korea-missiles-ukraine.html

Iran:

Satellite imagery has captured a Russian-flagged cargo ship suspected of transporting ballistic missiles from Iran docked at a port in Russia – Sky News

Port Olya 3 vessel had shipped around 220 short-range ballistic missiles via the Caspian Sea to Russia. The source told the… https://t.co/UFm4tQnmP5 pic.twitter.com/bdOOV3EoUZ

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 11, 2024

Satellite imagery has captured a Russian-flagged cargo ship suspected of transporting ballistic missiles from Iran docked at a port in Russia – Sky News

Port Olya 3 vessel had shipped around 220 short-range ballistic missiles via the Caspian Sea to Russia. The source told the news network that the ship arrived at the Russian port on 4 September.

It is believed the Fateh-360 ballistic missiles – with a range of more than 70 miles – were loaded on to a large cargo train. The Ukrainian source said an assumption is that they will be sent to a military training ground called Ashuluk for tests and to enable further training before they are used on the battlefield.

Source: https://news.sky.com/story/russian-ship-captured-in-satellite-image-delivering-ballistic-missiles-from-iran-13212835

The Ukrainians have brought down another Russian Su-30.

Aaaaaaaand Russians confirm the loss of a Sukhoi Su-30SM that was supposedly downed over the Black Sea today. pic.twitter.com/nG6ZI4V64S

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 11, 2024

/3. Russian sources say that pilots of the Su-30SM which was downed over the Black Sea are dead. pic.twitter.com/xMgo3cbaYB

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 11, 2024

Here’s the full text of tweet 2:

/2. Claims from Ukrainian sources regarding the Russian Su-30:

“Yesterday, around 11:40 p.m., an enemy Su-30SM tactical aircraft “disappeared” over the Black Sea after launching Kh-31P missiles targeting Odesa region.

Today, search and rescue operations are ongoing at the place of its disappearance (63 km from Zaliznyi Port, Kherson region).

There was no information about the two crew members, there is a possibility that both did not survive.”

https://t.me/war_monitor/20622

Not quite sure where in Ukraine this was:

And now we have a night-time interception of a Russian surveillance drone Zala.

Ukraine seems to be effectively ramping up its response to the increasingly massive presence of Russian eyes in the Ukrainian skies.

Vid published by @BackAndAlive pic.twitter.com/cwcbERHACE

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 11, 2024

We appear to have a new Orlan interception record:

Claimed, interception of the Russian Orlan reconnaissance drone at an altitude of 4060 meters.https://t.co/bh2jdwoDpf https://t.co/LEy8RGL2QU pic.twitter.com/HSN2urTQIe

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 11, 2024

The old record didn’t even last two weeks!

Konotop:

Russia has struck an apartment building in downtown Konotop. According to the city mayor, first responders are currently working to extinguish the fire. There are reports of injuries. More details will follow soon

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 11, 2024

Donetsk Oblast:

Russian forces just attacked a busy village center in Donetsk oblast with cluster munitions. I was there and have seen one civilian killed and at least two more injured. Not publishing photos for now. The intensity of Russian attacks is only escalating here in eastern Ukraine.

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) September 11, 2024

The Pokrovsk front:

Updated map showing Russian advances on the Pokrovsk front, around Klishchiivka, and north of Krasnohorivka. It also shows expanded assessed Russian control north of Chasiv Yar and expanded grey zone in Kursk from recent Russian advances. According to the map, Russian forces are… https://t.co/dXvxklWbXg pic.twitter.com/eGy4tjozOY

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) September 11, 2024

Updated map showing Russian advances on the Pokrovsk front, around Klishchiivka, and north of Krasnohorivka. It also shows expanded assessed Russian control north of Chasiv Yar and expanded grey zone in Kursk from recent Russian advances. According to the map, Russian forces are less than 8km from Pokrovsk.

https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/51.3265356/34.9382401…

https://t.me/DeepStateUA/20324

“It is highly likely that Ukrainian Defense Forces will be forced to completely abandon the bridgehead east of the Vovcha River in the direction of Nevelske and retreat to the Hirnyk–Kurakhivka line.

The situation in the Selidove area has deteriorated significantly, with the… pic.twitter.com/VcoAfnkJrF

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) September 11, 2024

“It is highly likely that Ukrainian Defense Forces will be forced to completely abandon the bridgehead east of the Vovcha River in the direction of Nevelske and retreat to the Hirnyk–Kurakhivka line.

The situation in the Selidove area has deteriorated significantly, with the enemy very close to entering the city from the east and northeast. They also managed to advance west of Novohrodivka.”

They also report that elements from Russia’s 61st Naval Infantry Brigade has been redeployed from Kherson oblast to Komarovka in Kursk Oblast.
https://cdsdailybrief.substack.com/p/corrected-date-russias-war-on-ukraine-982

Belgorod Oblast, Russia:

This is an interesting little story; someone (either local partisans or Ukrainian infiltrators) blew up a railway line as a Russian freight train was passing, causing derailment and severe damage to the locomotive and train cars. https://t.co/ob1nqdPyLD pic.twitter.com/MpMyK3iCLB

— Jimmy Rushton (@JimmySecUK) September 11, 2024

Murmansk, Russia:

Russian Telegram channels report that Murmansk airport is closed due to a threat of a drone attack. No flights in or out.

Murmansk is almost 2,000 km away from Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/33HnuuHFcc

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 11, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

The world must never forget what rage, impunity, and hostility lead to. They lead to terrorism. To horrific crimes against the state and humanity as a whole. Today, I want to embrace all those who lost loved ones on September 11th. I will remember them with you forever.… pic.twitter.com/J7S2u439xs

— Patron (@PatronDsns) September 11, 2024

The world must never forget what rage, impunity, and hostility lead to. They lead to terrorism. To horrific crimes against the state and humanity as a whole. Today, I want to embrace all those who lost loved ones on September 11th. I will remember them with you forever.

#Remember911

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 931: Lessons from AlicePost + Comments (26)

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