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War for Ukraine Day 1,050: Glide Bombs on Civilian Targets in Zaporizhzhia

by Adam L Silverman|  January 8, 202510:38 pm| 10 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Screen shot of new artwork by NEIVANMADE. The background is black. In the bottom foreground are grey Ukrainian homes and apartment buildings being bombarded by red Russian missiles with the Special Military Operation "Z" symbol on them. Above the missiles, written in red is the word "Ruzzians". Below the buildings being attacked is the statement "Turns Homes Into Graves".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Russia bombarded Zaporizhia today with glide bombs.

Just so everyone is aware, some of the videos and imagery below includes emergency personnel tending to the wounded.

How long will the world keep watching, tolerating, and trying to ‘understand’ Russia’s feelings while it keeps killing Ukrainians every day? Glide bombs hit Zaporizhzhia. Don’t look away—this is a modern European city, like any other.

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— Maria Avdeeva (@mariainkharkiv.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 10:07 AM

Zaporizhzhia right now‼️

Russia struck the city, killing at least 1 and injuring at least 2 others

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 9:34 AM

13 civilians have been reported killed, and dozens injured in a russian air attack on Zaporizhzhia.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 11:17 AM

The number of injured people in the Russian glide bomb attack on Zaporizhzhia has increased to 30. At least one person has died.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 10:17 AM

13 people gone.

Please don’t look away. Watch the video and share it. I don’t know how else to get attention—russia is murdering us.

Zaporizhzhia today 🕯

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 10:56 AM

“What did I see? A tram, a burning car, people lying without legs, the wounded, black smoke rising, screams everywhere, and no one around.”

This is how a witness described the horrifying aftermath of a deadly russian airstrike on Zaporizhzhia.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 1:55 PM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

We Must Not Waste a Single Day – We Must Put Pressure on Moscow, We Must Force Russia into Peace – Address by the President

8 January 2025 – 20:27

Dear Ukrainians!

A rescue operation is currently underway in Zaporizhzhia. Russian bombs hit the city, directly targeting civilians. Sadly, 13 people have been killed. My condolences to their families and loved ones. 32 people have been wounded, and all are receiving help. This was a direct attack on the city, on ordinary people. An absolutely deliberate strike by the Russian army. This shows once again what Russia truly seeks. They want only war, and only victims. That is why we must not waste a single day – we must put pressure on Moscow, we must force Russia into peace, we must continue doing everything necessary to protect lives and stop deaths. And at the same time, it is crucial to maintain the unity of all our partners, America and Europe, all our partners around the world who are helping us. Tomorrow, I will attend a meeting in the Ramstein format; and talks with partners, at the level of defense ministers and military commanders, are also planned. Ukraine’s Minister of Defense Umerov is already in Germany and has begun his first meetings. Ukraine’s key priority is to further strengthen our air defense, to give Ukraine the ability to at least push Russian military aircraft away from our cities and borders. This is realistic if our partners now finally implement the agreements we have been discussing for a long time. I am grateful to everyone who is helping Ukraine. Of course, we will discuss with our partners how our defense coalitions will continue to operate in 2025. Europe has only one choice, and it is a historic one, to become stronger, to become more independent, to rely more on itself. We must be mature in this world and be ready to make our own European contribution to global security. This will be the right thing to do for everyone in Europe.

Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported today on our long-range strikes, on our army’s efforts against Russian military logistics and their military facilities. I am grateful to each of our warriors for their precision.

Today, I held several international talks. Moldova – Maia Sandu. Of course, the most important thing is to help Moldova get through a difficult period of energy challenges, to prevent Moscow from stirring up social tensions. The entire current energy situation in Moldova – including on the left bank of the Dnister River – is Russia’s attempt to manipulate energy resources against the Moldovan authorities. We are ready to help Moldova, in particular, with coal. It is crucial to maintain stability and provide all the people of Moldova with the conditions they need to live in peace and work for their country, eliminate poverty, and support our joint movement toward the European Union.

I spoke today with the Amir of Qatar. I thanked him for supporting our humanitarian efforts, for participating in the implementation of our Peace Formula points, especially regarding the return of Ukrainian children abducted by Russia and the exchange of prisoners. We must free all our people. Of course, we also discussed the current global situation and exchanged views on possible changes. I also have just spoken with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. I thanked him for his support of our state and for our cooperation. We are working at all levels to provide Ukraine with as many opportunities as possible. These opportunities are not just for us, but for everyone who values peace and human life.

Glory to Ukraine!

The US:

This is terrible. Speaking as someone who is living through the invasion right now: you really don’t understand what you are saying, and you should all stop making jokes about it.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 9:03 AM

Where are all the WW3 prophets when the USA threatens its neighbors?

Or are they only worried about WW3 when Ukraine is defending itself?

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 9:08 AM

Another shonda.

If the next US government normalises the idea of absorbing territory by force – even if this is justified as some sort of lunatic diplomatic gambit – it makes it more likely that China will believe that the US will ultimately stand aside during an invasion of Taiwan.

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 4:09 PM

Perhaps more importantly:

New: After an eighteen-month investigation, @theins.press has uncovered new evidence suggesting that Russia’s GRU paid tens of millions of dollars to the Taliban to target American, coalition, and Afghan military forces. Unit 29155 was behind this operation.
theins.press/en/politics/…

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— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 12:05 PM

From The Insider: (emphasis mine)

The GRU, Russia’s military intelligence agency, spent years financing terrorist groups in Afghanistan to target U.S. and coalition forces. An investigation by The Insider has not only confirmed the existence of the program but also identified GRU officers responsible for its coordination. The Russian intelligence agency used a gemstone trading company as a front to run a network of Afghan couriers who delivered money to Taliban fighters and other militant groups. Once their missions were completed, the couriers were provided with Russian documents and granted asylum in Russia.

Sam heard the explosion at Bagram Airbase at around five or six o’clock in the morning. Right away he knew this wasn’t the usual round of mortar or rocket attack. “I can’t remember if the sirens went off at that point, but everyone was getting their kit on, grabbing a weapon.” An American Army officer stationed at the largest U.S. military installation in occupied Afghanistan, Sam (not his real name) recalls hearing Bagram’s first responders rushing to the scene of the blast. A big delivery truck jerry-rigged with thousands of pounds of explosives had just crashed into a wall which encircled an abandoned and unguarded Korean-built hospital outside of the main gate of Bagram, leaving a crater fifteen feet in diameter. It was December 11, 2019.

Then a second truck offloaded a squad of machine gun-wielding insurgents, some in suicide vests. They barricaded themselves inside the hospital, baiting Bagram’s defenders to try and clear a building that was now a dynamic booby trap. Instead, the hospital was cordoned off, and a company-sized element of multinational soldiers, including those from the U.S.-trained Afghan National Security Forces, fired into it. They were supported by helicopter gunships. The main battle was over by noon, but the attack didn’t culminate until two F-16s dropped “at least” two 500-pound bombs on the building. “We bombed our own base,” Sam said. “At least one suicide attacker survived badly concussed and tried to flee on foot. He was taken out by a sniper.”

Four U.S. personnel were injured. The impact of the vehicle-borne improvised explosive device shattered houses in the neighboring area, killing two Afghan civilians and injuring 80 more civilians. “It could have gone very differently had the VBIED hit close by,” Sam recalled. “That could have created an opening into the special operations side of the base. The carnage would have been much greater had they opted not to hole up in the hospital.”

That December 2019 attack, along with several others, was carried out by militants of the once and future Islamist government of Afghanistan, but it was financed by a foreign spy agency. After an eighteen-month investigation, The Insider and its partners have uncovered new evidence suggesting that Russia’s military intelligence service, the GRU, paid tens of millions of dollars to the Taliban in Afghanistan to target American, coalition, and Afghan military forces. GRU Unit 29155, the near-ubiquitous black ops team behind a series of bombings and poisonings in NATO countries, was behind this operation as well. The existence of the plot was first disclosed by U.S. intelligence and reported on by The New York Times a year before the U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan. At the time, it was couched as a “bounties” program.

According to Douglas London, the CIA’s chief for counterterrorism in south and southwest Asia from 2016 to 2018, “The Russians wanted the Taliban to spend more time killing Americans and less time killing Afghans. They relied on financial awards from Russian funding to encourage fighters to incur the greater risks in attacking the U.S. rather than Afghan targets. Russia’s intent with the Taliban evolved from minimal assistance and cooperation to proactively bleeding the United States.”

According to former Afghan and American intelligence officials, the GRU-Taliban program involved, at first, the recruitment of indigenous Afghan assets. Then it graduated to weapons and ammunition flows to the Taliban via neighboring Tajikistan, where Russia maintains its largest extraterritorial garrison. Finally, it led to money transfers to incentivize insurgent attacks on the occupying army. The former NDS officials said their investigation had linked at least 17 attacks by the Taliban with financial incentives coming from Russia “via a sophisticated money-moving network involving front companies and couriers in Tajikistan, China, and Pakistan.”

The operation kicked into high-gear around 2016, the year Donald Trump was elected president. In August 2017, the new administration adopted a South Asia policy meant to put pressure on the Taliban, but opted a year later to negotiate an end to America’s longest war. Those negotiations formed the lineaments of the Doha Agreement, which mandated “a timeline for the withdrawal of all U.S. and Coalition forces from Afghanistan.” The Trump administration began that withdrawal, and the Biden administration completed it on August 30, 2021 — amid chaotic airlifts out of Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, the dissolution of the U.S.-backed Afghan government of Ashraf Ghani, a suicide bombing that killed 13 American servicemen and 170 Afghan civilians, and a lightning takeover of the entire country by the Taliban.

Based on the data The Insider has analyzed, it is clear Unit 29155 was recruiting assets used in the scheme starting from at least 2015. Dozens of them were deployed as couriers, money-movers, and liaisons with the Taliban before being resettled in Russia. Others now live as refugees in Western Europe and Asia, and at least some of them appear to maintain contact with their handlers. Meanwhile, the GRU spy at the helm of this operation remains a critical backchannel interlocutor with the new Afghan government, negotiating ongoing intelligence and military cooperation between Moscow and Kabul.

Relying on telecoms metadata, travel and border crossing logs, and leaked correspondence, The Insider found that Unit 29155 recruited at least three different networks of Afghan nationals to serve as intermediaries between the GRU and illegal armed groups operating in Afghanistan, primarily the Taliban. The most prolific network, operating in northern Afghanistan from a base in Kunduz, was headed by Rahmatullah Azizi, a longtime smuggler whose recruits included his own family members. They acted as couriers between Unit 29155 and the Taliban.

An avowed fan of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Azizi was primarily based in Russia as of 2015, but he traveled constantly to Afghanistan and other countries in the region. He was also issued three Russian passports under different names, one of them printed in the same numerical sequence as the two Unit 29155 operatives responsible for poisoning Sergei and Yulia Skirpal in Salisbury in 2018 with the military-grade nerve agent Novichok. Azizi created a front company as a money laundering vehicle for paying Taliban fighters — a gem-trading entity registered at a Moscow address connected with GRU headquarters.

The Insider spoke with four former Afghan officials, three of whom worked in senior positions within the National Directorate of Security (NDS), the country’s top intelligence agency, which was created with the help of the CIA after the U.S. invasion and occupation of Afghanistan in 2001. All were familiar with the GRU program and had knowledge of which attacks on U.S. forces were linked to Russian intelligence; their conclusions were based on evidence obtained from thirteen Afghan members of the network, who were detained by the NDS for a year-and-a-half. The Insider was able to substantiate several key details provided by the four sources based on data from leaked email accounts belonging to three Unit 29155 operatives. The investigation was able to reconstruct the travel patterns of Afghan couriers, comparing them with the timing of known Taliban attacks on U.S. and coalition forces. The network mapped by The Insider — which includes both the GRU handlers responsible for the program and their Afghan agents — appears to contain information previously unknown to the NDS and its U.S. intelligence partners.

The program, as per the ex-NDS sources, averaged $200,000 per killed American or coalition soldier, with the payment being disbursed to the network responsible. There were smaller allowances for killed Afghan troops and security officers. One former NDS official estimated that Russia paid a total of approximately $30 million to the Taliban via the scheme, a fraction of the $3 to $4 billion the CIA spent on Operation Cyclone, the covert program to fund, arm, and train the mujahideen to drive the Soviet Army out of Afghanistan in the 1980s. “I think $30 million was a small amount to give the United States a bloody nose,” one former NDS officer said. Another ex-NDS source claimed that at least that much had also been spent on funding other armed groups opposing the U.S.-supported Afghan government, a claim partly corroborated by data showing close contacts between the GRU spymasters and members of Afghan resistance movements dating back to 2014.

The Insider interviewed six former CIA officers involved in analyzing the intelligence on the GRU’s operations in Afghanistan. All except London requested anonymity as a condition for commenting, but all maintained that The Insider’s findings complement and amplify what has been the conventional wisdom of the U.S. intelligence community over the past four years — a conventional wisdom that has often been undermined or occluded by politicized agendas. “There are many instances when we got punched in the face and were told to do nothing about it for fear of escalation,” one former CIA officer said. “This was one.”

“There were multiple services and multiple disciplines of information, and the evidence of this program was all right there,” another U.S. intelligence official, who was intimately involved in analyzing the program at the interagency level, told The Insider. “It was just lacking in hard nouns and personae, which have now been uncovered.” The reluctance to unambiguously accuse Russia of suborning an extremist adversary to kill U.S. servicemen, that former official added, “wasn’t because of a lack of information — it was a lack of priority, maybe even fortitude.”

Information about the GRU-Taliban program was included in Trump’s Presidential Daily Brief on February 27, 2020. During an NBC-hosted presidential debate in October of that year, then-candidate Joe Biden said, “I don’t understand why this president is unwilling to take on Putin when he’s actually paying bounties to kill American soldiers in Afghanistan.” The Biden administration later alluded to the “reported” program in a White House fact sheet published in April 2021, but it took no formal action against Russia, such as implementing sanctions. “Given the sensitivity of this matter, which involves the safety and well-being of our forces,” the fact sheet stated, “it is being handled through diplomatic, military and intelligence channels.”

Ten months later, Russia invaded Ukraine.

“Why would the Russians do this to us?,” a former CIA officer and veteran Russia hand asked. “Because Russia’s at war with the United States. They firmly believe they’re at war with us. And we’re naive.”

Much, much more at the link,

Georgia:

The protest in Georgia continues: Day 42.

#GeorgianProtests

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 12:20 PM

Day#42 non-stop pro-Euro protests in #Georgia
January 8, 2025
Close to midnight, its freezing
We are here!

#GeorgiaProtests
#არშევეგუები

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— Niniko Robakidze (@nuka21.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 2:11 PM

Day 42. This is in Batumi. #GeorgiaProtests #terrorinGeorgia #NewElectionsforGeorgia

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 12:54 PM

President Salome Zourabichvili is the descendant of those exiled from the First Republic of Georgia after the Soviet Russian conquest.
It’s her signature on the final document withdrawing the Russian army and bases from Georgia, as then-Minister of Foreign Affairs. 1/2

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 5:26 AM

She is now the leader figure of the Georgian national liberation from the ongoing Russian takeover, albeit the movement itself is bottom-up.
This can’t be a coincidence, this is historical symbolism.
Support the continued legitimacy of President Zourabichvili! 2/2.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 5:26 AM

Invaluable!

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 9:02 AM

GD has just released a long statement full of conspiracy theories. In the statement, they claim that “every single politician and bureaucrat who stands out with anti-Georgian statements [read: anti-GD] is a member of the deep state network… acting under the directives of the Global War Party.”

1/

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— Anna Gvarishvili (@annagvarish.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 2:31 AM

Ironically, oligarch Ivanishvili’s party “hopes” that by 2030, the EU will “fully overcome the issues of informal oligarchic influence and the deep state.”

2/

— Anna Gvarishvili (@annagvarish.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 2:34 AM

Trump’s team “is making encouraging statements about dismantling the deep state” within American official structures… It is a fact that over the past four years, it was precisely the deep state that was destroying not only America but also many other countries around the world.“

3/

— Anna Gvarishvili (@annagvarish.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 2:47 AM

“Most devastatingly, the destructive impact of the deep state’s patrons has been felt by our friendly nation, Ukraine, which until 2014 had sovereignty, territorial integrity, peace… is now practically destroyed, for which the authors of the “Maidan” take no responsibility.”

4/

— Anna Gvarishvili (@annagvarish.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 2:49 AM

“The EU bureaucracy’s value system is currently in a dire condition, which is most clearly reflected in the five resolutions adopted by the European Parliament regarding Georgia…

5/

— Anna Gvarishvili (@annagvarish.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 2:52 AM

Given this trend, it is highly likely that in its sixth resolution, the European Parliament will openly demand that we start a war with Russia.”

6/

— Anna Gvarishvili (@annagvarish.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 2:52 AM

“The Baltic states have practically lost their sovereignty entirely and are forced to act solely under the directives of the deep state.”

7/

— Anna Gvarishvili (@annagvarish.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 2:56 AM

Back to Ukraine.

Khartsyzk, Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:

💥 The Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked the command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in occupied Khartsyzsk, Donetsk region.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 10:08 AM

Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

🔥The result of a missile strike, likely ATACMS, on the location of a Russian unit in the occupied part of the Kherson region.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 8:38 AM

The Kursk cross border offensive:

Ukrainian defenders in the Kursk region repelled a Russian assault on a settlement, targeting armored vehicles and eliminating enemy personnel.

SOF drone crews destroyed 2 tanks and 3 armored vehicles during the Russian assault on Ukrainian positions.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 5:43 AM

Engels, Saratov Oblast, Russia:

At least there is a mini apocalypse in the russian oil depot in Engels

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 12:28 PM

Russian oil depot in Engels burning after drone attack. 600km from the frontline.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 4:25 AM

/2. Russian Engels oil depot is still on fire after the drone attack last night.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 9:59 AM

/3. According to residents, smoke has covered half the city, and flames are visible from almost anywhere in Engels. The fire continues to grow, and explosions can still be heard in the area of ​​the oil depot.

А state of emergency has been declared in the city.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 10:02 AM

The Russian service of the BBC counted the number of strikes on Russian refineries in 2024.

In 2024, refineries and fuel depots in Russia and the occupied territories of Ukraine were attacked at least 81 times. Oil facilities in southern Russia were most often targeted.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 8, 2025 at 8:35 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

Who ate the cake? I ask, who ate the cake?

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— Meanwhile in Ukraine (@meanwhileua.bsky.social) January 7, 2025 at 11:50 AM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,050: Glide Bombs on Civilian Targets in ZaporizhzhiaPost + Comments (10)

‘Interesting Times’ Read: The Great Crypto Crash

by Anne Laurie|  January 8, 20259:11 pm| 43 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Excellent Links, Grifters Gonna Grift, Trump Crime Cartel

Sick of people calling everything in crypto a Ponzi scheme.
Some crypto projects are pump and dump schemes, while others are pyramid schemes.
Others are just standard issue fraud. Others are just middlemen skimming off the top.
Stop glossing over the diversity in the industry.

— Jon of The North (@krauza.bsky.social) January 7, 2025 at 9:52 PM

Annie Lowery, at the Atlantic [gift link]:

“The countdown clock on the next catastrophic crash has already started,” Dennis Kelleher, the president of the nonprofit Better Markets, told me.

In the past few weeks, I have heard that sentiment or similar from economists, traders, Hill staffers, and government officials. The incoming Trump administration has promised to pass crypto-friendly regulations, and is likely to loosen strictures on Wall Street institutions as well.

This will bring an unheralded era of American prosperity, it argues, maintaining the country’s position as the head of the global capital markets and the heart of the global investment ecosystem. “My vision is for an America that dominates the future,” Donald Trump told a bitcoin conference in July. “I’m laying out my plan to ensure that the United States will be the crypto capital of the planet and the bitcoin superpower of the world.”

Financial experts expect something different. First, a boom. A big boom, maybe, with the price of bitcoin, ether, and other cryptocurrencies climbing; financial firms raking in profits; and American investors awash in newfound wealth. Second, a bust. A big bust, maybe, with firms collapsing, the government being called in to steady the markets, and plenty of Americans suffering from foreclosures and bankruptcies.

show full post on front page

Having written about bitcoin for more than a decade—and having covered the last financial crisis and its long hangover—I have some sense of what might cause that boom and bust. Crypto assets tend to be exceedingly volatile, much more so than real estate, commodities, stocks, and bonds. Egged on by Washington, more Americans will invest in crypto. Prices will go up as cash floods in. Individuals and institutions will get wiped out when prices drop, as they inevitably will.

The experts I spoke with did not counter that narrative. But if that’s all that happens, they told me, the United States and the world should count themselves lucky. The danger is not just that crypto-friendly regulation will expose millions of Americans to scams and volatility. The danger is that it will lead to an increase in leverage across the whole of the financial system. It will foster opacity, making it harder for investors to determine the riskiness of and assign prices to financial products. And it will do so at the same time as the Trump administration cuts regulations and regulators.

Crypto will become more widespread. And the conventional financial markets will come to look more like the crypto markets—wilder, less transparent, and more unpredictable, with trillion-dollar consequences extending years into the future.

“I have this worry that the next three or four years will look pretty good,” Eswar Prasad, an economist at Cornell and a former International Monetary Fund official, told me. “It’s what comes after, when we have to pick up the pieces from all the speculative frenzies that are going to be generated because of this administration’s actions.”…

Trump, his #failson family, most of his backers and a big chunk of his minions are heavily invested in cryptocurrency (which, you ask me, is one sure indication it’s a scam built on lies and false accounting). The eventual saga of their upcoming Treasury raid — assuming there’s any historians left to write it — is gonna make the Teapot Dome scandal look like preschoolers playing cops & robbers.

‘Interesting Times’ Read: <em>The Great Crypto Crash</em>Post + Comments (43)

Shots Fired

by @heymistermix.com|  January 8, 20255:36 pm| 129 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Shots Fired

Claudia was lit at her press conference today:

She noted that the Constitution of Apatzingán, which was created during the Mexican War of Independence, referred to territory now known as the United States as Mexican America.

At the time of the document’s creation in 1814, large parts of what is now the southwestern United States were still under Spanish control. Mexico, when it became an independent country in 1821, was much larger than it is today, as its territory included all or part of several modern-day U.S. states.

“The Constitution of Apatzingán was of Mexican America. So we’re going to call it Mexican America,” Sheinbaum said, as she gestured toward an old map showing modern-day United States territory referred to as Mexican America.

“It sounds nice, right?” she said again, riffing on Trump’s declaration that the name “the Gulf of America” has a “beautiful ring to it.”

“Obviously the name ‘Gulf of Mexico’ is recognized by the United Nations,” Sheinbaum told reporters.

She later said that the Gulf of Mexico has been known as such since at least 1607.

She also pushed back on Trump’s contention that cartels run Mexico, saying that he confused the current Mexican administration with that of Felipe Calderón, whose security minister was recently sentenced to 38 years in US federal prison for colluding with the Sinaloa Cartel. Calderón was a member of the PAN party and his term ended in 2012, so that’s basically calling Trump out of touch as well as reminding voters that Morena (her party) didn’t have that kind of corruption.

She also brushed off the tariff talk by saying she though that Mexico would have a good relationship with the second Trump administration, since the first Trump administration had a good relationship with her predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), who assumed office in December, 2018.

So, as always, #EsClaudia, the end.

(My Mom, RIP, was Mexican-American and on her telling, the US stole a big chunk of Arizona and New Mexico from Mexico, so this isn’t ancient history to some Mexicans.)

Shots FiredPost + Comments (129)

Coffee Is Good (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker|  January 8, 20254:38 pm| 33 Comments

This post is in: Birdwatching, How about that weather?, Open Threads

Cup of coffee with a swamp as background

It’s all relative, but the weather sucks here this week. Highs are in the 50s and lows in the 30s. That might sound balmy if you’re in Rochester.

But I have to jump in the water Friday, so I’m kinda miffed about it. At least the springs will be warm and the manatees plentiful. I’ll try to get pics. In the meantime, coffee and lots of it.

***

The eagle pair returned this morning. They wheeled over the river, their dark bodies and contrasting white heads and tails stark against the blue sky.

One eagle carried vegetation to the other in a tall tree on the bank opposite our place, where they’re apparently building a nest.

Eagle in a tree.

Above is one of the crappy pics I took yesterday. I’m so hoping they stick around and raise some eaglets. The tree is distant, but I have a pretty good spotting scope.

***

I’ve been occupying myself with lots of small projects. So far, I re-tiled a backsplash, re-caulked two sinks, touched up paint and organized two closets.

Bill is working much harder than I am downstairs, where he is replacing the drywall that he ripped out after the flood. (In the Mildew State, ya gotta take care of demo right away or mold will engulf the building and its inhabitants.)

I think we deserve an evening at the pub after all this. I hope y’all are having a peaceful day and staying safe. If you’re a Californian, consider checking in below in the thread for that purpose.

Open thread!

Coffee Is Good (Open Thread)Post + Comments (33)

Sanewashing vs Insanewashing

by @heymistermix.com|  January 8, 20251:37 pm| 147 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Kevin Kruse on Trump’s press conferences in general:

[…] make no mistake, these press briefings will continue to get constant coverage by the media. It doesn’t matter that they usually involve no actual information that the American people need and, in fact, often involve serious misinformation that the American people definitely do not need. It doesn’t matter because the political media no longer sees its role as one of educating viewers about the vital issues before the nation; it sees its role as one of entertaining viewers instead, and no one is more entertaining than the shoot-from-the-hip stand-up insult comic known as Donald Trump.

This is the key skill of Trump:  giving the diminished, click-thirsty media what they want.  It’s right to call it a political skill, and I don’t buy that Trump’s ascendence and continued presence in our politics is all due to factors unrelated to his skill as a politician, no matter how upset that makes a few of you.

There’s a sanewashing inherent in covering Trump in any way but a live feed of his news conferences, and that benefits Trump, since the actual feed is far more incoherent than any summary.  The flip side of the sanewashing coin is insanewashing.  This is throwing up your hands and saying “he’s just crazy” and disregarding what he says.

I think the right approach, and the one I’m going to follow when I write about Trump here, is to try to quickly deal with what seem to be obvious distractions, and then focusing on what he’s really doing (like appointing abusers and anti-vaxx nutcases to his cabinet, corrupt influence peddling, etc.)

The hard part about this is figuring out what’s really a distraction.  In his post today, Krugman thinks that the rise in long-term interest rates, even though the short-term rates have been cut by the Fed, could be explained by the bond market believing what Trump says about tariffs:

Look at the dynamic over the past few days. Jeff Stein of the Washington Post reported that people around Trump were planning a fairly limited, strategic set of tariffs rather than the destructive trade war against everyone Trump has been promising; Trump quickly responded with a Truth Social post calling the report “Fake News” and declaring that he does too intend to impose high tariffs on everyone and everything.

In short, Sources: “Trump isn’t as crazy as he looks.” Trump: “Yes I am!”

Then, as if to dispel any lingering suspicions that he might be saner than he appears, Trump held a press conference in which he appeared to call for annexing Canada, possibly invading Greenland, seizing the Panama Canal and renaming the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America. This morning CNN reported that Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency — in a nation with low unemployment and inflation! — to justify a huge rise in tariffs.

What does this have to do with interest rates? There’s near-unanimity among economists that Trump’s announced agenda of high tariffs, tax cuts and mass deportations would be highly inflationary, although probably not right away; whatever Trump does, inflation will probably remain low for much of this year. Still, if he were to go through with any substantial part of that agenda, the Fed would definitely have to put further interest rate cuts on hold. In fact, it might well feel the need to raise rates again.

FWIW, since it’s just a guess, I’m more on the side of Trump enacting a few tariffs and making a lot of noise about them.  Similarly, I think he’ll do some kind of deportation targeted at a couple of blue dot cities.  So, in general, I think he’ll do what he said, but not to the degree he said that he’d do it.   But, if Krugman is right, the bond market disagrees with that analysis.  They think he’s going to go at it good and hard.

Sanewashing vs InsanewashingPost + Comments (147)

‘The Seething Resignation of the Governed’

by @heymistermix.com|  January 8, 202510:02 am| 201 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Michael Podhorzer is a political strategist for the AFL-CIO, and he’s published his numbers-driven post-election analysis:

Visualizations like this one from FiveThirtyEight, purporting to show that “America swung right,” have been ubiquitous since the election.

But, as we will see, America didn’t swing rightward, but couchward:

  • The popular vote result was almost entirely a collapse in support for Harris and Democrats, not an increase in support for Trump and MAGA. Trump was no more popular this year than four years ago, while Harris significantly underperformed Biden 2020.
  • Most of Harris’s losses were due to anti-MAGA surge voters staying home.2She lost the most ground in deep-Blue urban areas, where the dangers of a second Trump administration seemed most remote. About 19 million Americans who cast ballots for Biden in 2020 did not vote in 2024.
  • Anti-MAGA surge voters stayed home because they were less alarmed by a second Trump Administration than they were four years ago. A key to Biden’s victory was high turnout from less-engaged voters who believed they had something to lose under Trump. In 2024, however, about 15 million fewer votes were cast “against” Trump than in 2020.

As I’ve been saying for years, America has an anti-MAGA majority, but not necessarily a pro-Democratic one. In 2020 (and 2022, in part), alarm about Trump and MAGA was enough to overcome the cynicism and alienation of mostly younger voters who desperately want bigger systemic change, but who oppose the MAGA agenda. This time, their cynicism won out. This was in no small part because the media and other non-partisan civil society leaders were themselves more skeptical of the dangers, and because the inaction of the Biden Administration and Democrats in Congress against MAGA threats belied their rhetoric of existential dangers to the nation.3

It’s a very long piece, it’s got that consultant-speak tone, and part of it relies on polling data, not election returns, to prove his point about who the non-voters were.  Still, I think it’s well worth a read.  He has an interesting contrast between what he calls “Flatland” vs “3D-Land”.  In his terminology, a Flatland voting analysis only looks at people who vote and ignores those who didn’t.  A 3D-Land analysis includes eligible voters.  “This is important not because it will change the outcome, or bolster post-hoc finger pointing with new “what-ifs,” but because it will let us better understand the meaning of the vote, as well as where the best hopes for the future lie.”

His conclusion:

[…] When Flatland analysts argue that America “moved right,” the prescription tends to be that Democrats should also move right, or at least play nice with Trump to avoid alienating the Americans who supposedly granted him a decisive mandate. The same prescription will be dispensed to civil society and the media.

But that diagnosis completely misses the life-threatening illness America is really struggling with: a billionaire-captured system that doesn’t work for most people, and justifiable disaffection and anger at this system. Americans are fed up, and people are perpetually in the mood to throw the bums out, whoever the bums in charge are. But with only two parties to realistically choose from – plus a democratically illegitimate Electoral College that makes most Americans’ presidential votes all but irrelevant – all of these “change elections” add up to little more than a seesaw that most Americans don’t want to ride in the first place.

And so, nearly 250 years after putting forth the then-revolutionary aspiration for governments “deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed,” we deploy election procedures that can claim no more legitimacy than the seething resignation of the governed.

This is via Will Bunch’s free newsletter, signup here.  I guess the tl;dr is what it always is:  Dems lose elections when our voters stay home.

‘The Seething Resignation of the Governed’Post + Comments (201)

Dank Grey Dawn Open Thread: Phony Stark, the Model & the Man(ling)

by Anne Laurie|  January 8, 20254:18 am| 136 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Grifters Gonna Grift, Media, Open Threads

If only he were rational and grounded in reality enough to aspire to emulate an actual person.
I am afraid the truth is much more pathetic. He wants to be Tony Stark. https://t.co/MFNH7DMCZI

— Slava Malamud ???????? (@SlavaMalamud) January 6, 2025

When I was a kid, new issues of Iron Man (then in its double digits) were always the last to sell out at the corner store. Every Stark story seemed to involve the invention of new high-tech war machines, which would inevitably blow things up, always in elaborate detail and yet with the emotional affect of a slipstick-driven slideshow presentation.

When I was a teenage comix nerd in the early 1970s, a long-forgotten source said that Iron Man was the superhero of choice for those who subscribed to Playboy not for the pin-ups, or even ‘the articles’, but for the advertising: Fast cars, name-brand booze, and expensive home technology (hi-fi systems & waterbeds).

From the Wikipedia entry for Iron Man (fictional character):

… Iron Man is the superhero persona of Anthony Edward “Tony” Stark, a businessman and engineer who runs the weapons manufacturing company Stark Industries. When Stark was captured in a war zone and sustained a severe heart wound, he built his Iron Man armor and escaped his captors. Iron Man’s suits of armor grant him superhuman strength, flight, energy projection, and other abilities. The character was created in response to the Vietnam War as Lee’s attempt to create a likeable pro-war character. Since his creation, Iron Man has been used to explore political themes, with early Iron Man stories being set in the Cold War. The character’s role as a weapons manufacturer proved controversial, and Marvel moved away from geopolitics by the 1970s. Instead, the stories began exploring themes such as civil unrest, technological advancement, corporate espionage, alcoholism, and governmental authority…

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Iron Man was created in the years after a permanent arms industry developed in the United States, and this was incorporated into the character’s backstory. The character was introduced as an active player in the Vietnam War. Lee described the national mood toward Vietnam during Iron Man’s creation as “a time when most of us genuinely felt that the conflict in that tortured land really was a simple matter of good versus evil”…

Lee modeled Iron Man after businessman Howard Hughes, invoking his physical appearance, his image as a businessman, and his reputation as an arrogant playboy… When first designing the character, Lee wanted to create a modernized Arthurian knight Kirby initially drew the Iron Man armor as a “round and clunky gray heap”, and Heck modified the design to incorporate gadgets such as jets, drills, and suction cups…

Stan Lee was a two-bit hustler, and nothing he said could be taken as truthful without independent verification, but he does seem to have predicted (manifested?) the rise of a certain South African soutpiel immigrant and the incels who love him.

"He is a genius!"
"He invented space!"
"He made cars go vroom vroom!"
"The smartest man alive!"
"So much money! Literally Tony Stark!"
"History's most important innovator!"

The cult of money is insane. We elevate childish morons to positions of power and eminence. https://t.co/9PJRIOCOdI

— Slava Malamud ???????? (@SlavaMalamud) January 6, 2025

Dank Grey Dawn Open Thread: Phony Stark, the Model & the Man(ling)Post + Comments (136)

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