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War for Ukraine Day 869: Russia’s Wetwork Program

by Adam L Silverman|  July 11, 20248:39 pm| 16 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A couple of quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is still doing excellently after her chemo treatment on Monday. There is no noticeable side effects so far. Thank you all, again, for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, I have had a very, very long day. So I’m going to keep tonight short(ish).

As I start writing tonight’s update – 7:45 PM EDT – all of northern central and central Ukraine are under air raid alert. The air raid alert tracker maps are not showing any Russian aviation up, so these are likely the result of drones being detected aloft.

Earlier today, however, much of Ukraine was under the threat of Russian missiles.

Ukraine is under massive russian missile and drone attacks right now! pic.twitter.com/RrHuTT0v7l

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) July 11, 2024

Russian troops struck the village of Bilyi Kolodiaz in the Kupiansk district of the Kharkiv Oblast with glide bombs, causing numerous fires and destroying dozens of houses. Three people were killed, and eight were injured. pic.twitter.com/YDJsOtczqe

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) July 11, 2024

While President Zelenskyy did address the NATO Council today, no video has been posted. Nor is there a video address posted for today.

Earlier today, CNN broke the news, at least in the US, that Russia had targeted the head of Germany’s Rhienmetall, as well as the leaders of a number of other European arms manufacturers for assassination.

CNN — US intelligence discovered earlier this year that the Russian government planned to assassinate the chief executive of a powerful German arms manufacturer that has been producing artillery shells and military vehicles for Ukraine, according to five US and western officials familiar with the episode.

The plot was one of a series of Russian plans to assassinate defense industry executives across Europe who were supporting Ukraine’s war effort, these sources said. The plan to kill Armin Papperger, a white-haired goliath who has led the German manufacturing charge in support of Kyiv, was the most mature.

When the Americans learned of the effort, they informed Germany, whose security services were then able to protect Papperger and foil the plot. A high-level German government official confirmed that Berlin was warned about the plot by the US.

For more than six months, Russia has been carrying out a sabotage campaign across Europe, largely by proxy. It has recruited local amateurs for everything from arson attacks on warehouses linked to arms for Ukraine to petty acts of vandalism — all designed to stymie the flow of weapons from the West to Ukraine and blunt public support for Kyiv.

But the intelligence suggesting that Russia was willing to assassinate private citizens underlined to Western officials just how far Moscow was willing to go in a parallel shadow war it is waging across the west.

Papperger was an obvious target: His company, Rheinmetall, is the largest and most successful German manufacturer of the vital 155mm artillery shells that have become the make-or-break weapon in Ukraine’s grinding war of attrition. The company is opening an armored vehicle plant inside of Ukraine in the coming weeks, an effort that one source familiar with the intelligence said was deeply concerning to Russia. After a series of gains earlier this year, Moscow’s war effort has once again stalled amid redoubled Ukrainian defenses and punishing losses in personnel.

The series of plots, not previously reported, helps explain the increasingly strident warnings from NATO officials about the seriousness of the sabotage campaign — one that some senior officials believe risks crossing the threshold into armed conflict in eastern Europe.

“We’re seeing sabotage, we’re seeing assassination plots, we’re seeing arson. We’re seeing things that have a cost in human lives,” a senior NATO official told reporters on Tuesday. “I believe very much that we’re seeing a campaign of covert sabotage activities from Russia that have strategic consequences.”

The National Security Council declined to comment on the existence of the Russian plot and the US warning to Germany. But, NSC spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement, “Russia’s intensifying campaign of subversion is something that we are taking extremely seriously and have been intently focused on over the past few months.

“The United States has been discussing this issue with our NATO Allies, and we are actively working together to expose and disrupt these activities,” she said. “We have also been clear that Russia’s actions will not deter Allies from continuing to support Ukraine.”

German officials declined to comment on the specifics of CNN’s reporting. But speaking on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Washington on Thursday, Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said it shows how Russia is “waging a hybrid war of aggression” on European allies.

“We have seen that there have been attacks on factories. And this underlines once again that we as Europeans must protect ourselves as best we can and not be naive,” Baerbock said.

In a separate statement sent to CNN, the German Interior Ministry said that Berlin “will not be intimidated by the Russian threats,” emphasizing that they are fundamentally aimed at “undermining the support of Germany and our partners for Ukraine in its defense against the Russian war of aggression.”

A spokesman for Rheinmetall, Oliver Hoffman, declined to comment.

“The necessary measures are always taken in regular consultation with the security authorities,” Hoffman said.

CNN has asked the Russian embassy in Washington for comment.

If I were CNN, which I’m thankfully not, I would not hold my breath waiting for that comment.

More at the link, more on this after the jump.

show full post on front page

Indeed idea that cumulative activity can breach Art Five now applies to more than cyber. Put simply: allies now agree that a lot of assassinations and arson attacks could breach the threshold. Of course A5 is not a magic incantation that solves the problem https://t.co/Sj8nltuybc https://t.co/d3WBSDCY1z

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) July 11, 2024

Not now just cyber, now ‘hybrid operations’ pic.twitter.com/YRNQMf2sIb

— John Foreman CBE (@John_ForemanCBE) July 11, 2024

‘sabotage, acts of violence, provocations at Allied borders, instrumentalisation of irregular migration, malicious cyber activities, electronic interference, disinformation campaigns and malign political influence, as well as economic coercion’.

So everything.

— John Foreman CBE (@John_ForemanCBE) July 11, 2024

It is important to remember that this isn’t just something that Russia just came up with. Rather, it has been going on for a while now as one line of effort in Russia’s ongoing world war against the US, the EU, and NATO.

There has undoubtedly been progress on attribution. UK, Poland & Baltic states have been at forefront. France increasingly vocal. However no-one, with partial exception of UK, has publicly & clearly pointed to Russian cyber activity in CNI akin to Volt Typhoon in America.

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) May 22, 2024

Hybrid/sub-threshold/whatever acidity is unavoidably asymmetric. NATO countries aren’t sponsoring arson or sabotage in Russia. Unrealistic to expect retaliation in kind. But as Russian risk tolerance grows, don’t assume that Western countries’ risk appetite won’t change. Eg: https://t.co/aTpPTgfiBT

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) May 22, 2024

Wrote the thread above in May. The issue has become even more pressing since then, with more evidence that Russian risk tolerance is growing – see news of the assassination plots, below – and no clear way forward on how to deter it. https://t.co/QjiPtKOL04

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) July 11, 2024

The Russian are not only running lines of effort against their adversaries, but also against themselves. Sergey Radenko brings us the details via the Thread Reader App:

This here is pretty entertaining (and I have never seen anything like this). Russia’s foreign intelligence (SVR) publishes fake “declassified” reports by its rezidenty in Kyiv, Paris, Riga, and Washington who are identified as “Aleks,” “Feliks,” “Diaz,” “Stone,” and Nora. 
These fake reports promote conspiracy theories like one here that claims that the Americans are secretly hiring Latin American criminals to fight in Ukraine.Image
Why do I say it’s quite unprecedented? The Russian intelligence have previously faked documents for public consumption (they do it regularly, it’s a trademark). Consider the Tanaka memorandum etc etc. But I don’t think they have ever faked their own documents. 
The primary audience is obviously Russian speaking conspiracy theorists in Russia and abroad, but not only. I would not be surprised if this garbage is picked up and spread by pro-Russian bot networks, especially in the Global South. 
This is highly stupid and probably not worth writing a thread about but here I go anyway. Sigh. Not linking to the original SVR article in order to minimize clicks. The f****s don’t deserve it. 

Here are President Zelenskyy’s thoughts on how the NATO summit is going so far via the Thread Reader app.

Today, I addressed the NATO-Ukraine Council. Our fight is not just about Ukraine defending against Russia’s full-scale aggression, but about protecting the rules-based world order.Image
We do not allow wars of aggression to benefit the aggressor. This is why this Alliance was created – to make sure that those who wage a criminal war against another nation will lose. When our decisions are strong, we ensure the irreversibility of this course. 
I am grateful for every air defense system that works to save the lives of our people. I am grateful for the decision on new Patriots and other air defense systems for Ukraine. These systems need to be delivered to Ukraine as soon as possible. 
We must protect all our cities. And our partners can help with this. Every announced military package must be delivered to the front as quickly as possible. When this happens, Putin fails – and this is vital. 
I am grateful for the permission given to us to strike Russian territory along our border. Thanks to this decision and the courage of our soldiers, we thwarted the Russian offensive on Kharkiv. HIMARS hit military targets near the border, burning Putin’s calculations. 
ATACMS, SCALPs, and Storm Shadows would be even more effective if we could hit Russian military airfields from which planes carrying the glided bombs take off. Russia is launching about 3,500 such bombs every month. 
It is only fair to destroy those military bases that are attacking us and killing our people. Each of you would defend yourselves in the same way. We need this permission from our partners, and most importantly – from the United States. 
We need a sufficient number of F-16s. Russia uses about 300 combat aircraft; we need at least half of that. Training missions for pilots must expand. 
How many years will we wait for half of 300 aircraft at the current speed of supply and training? The war shouldn’t last that long. And in the case of the F-16s, it is not up to us. 
I’m grateful for the NATO-Ukraine Council, created to make our path to the Alliance visible. And the real ticket for Ukraine to join NATO is a just end to this war. Without Ukraine in NATO, European security will never be complete. 
Ukraine outside of the Alliance is a temptation for Russia to try aggression again and again, to become an invader, to go into Ukraine and other countries. That is why all formats of our cooperation, including this one, should be a bridge to Ukraine’s victory in this war. 
Our victory should become a bridge to lasting peace for all of Europe. All this must be based on one strong word – invitation. Ukraine deserves an invitation to NATO. This certainty will irreversibly become the Alliance’s new, strong pillar. Only strong decisions make winners. 

Here’s Peskov’s response to the news about the stormshadows.

pic.twitter.com/TaPDC7klwm

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) July 10, 2024

More seriously, I want to focus/refocus everyone on President Zelenskyy’s statements about the provision of F-16s and the training of the pilots and crews. President Zelenskyy’s statements above contradict what we heard from Assistant to the President – National Security Advisor (APNSA) Jake Sullivan yesterday. Only one of these statements can be true. Additionally, Ukraine is supposed to get 12 F-16s sometime between now and the Fall. Another batch, of indeterminate number, in 2025. And then more/the rest sometime in 2026. But the total is going to be somewhere between 60 and 70, not the 150 that President Zelenskyy is the minimum required number. This is, of course, dependent on Biden being reelected as the US approval for allies and partners to to transfer them to Ukraine, as well as the US-Ukraine bilateral security agreement is only US approval for the transfers and a US agreement with Ukraine as long as a Democrat is in the White House.

Michael Korfman has just gotten back from another battle field visit in Ukraine. Here is his assessment of where things stands via the Thread Reader App:

Thoughts following a recent field study in Ukraine. Ukraine faces difficult months of fighting ahead, but the situation at the front is better than it was this spring. More worrisome is the state of Ukraine’s air defense, and the damage from Russian strikes to the power grid. 1/ 
Ukraine’s manpower, fortifications, and ammunition situation is steadily improving. Russian forces are advancing in Donetsk, and likely to make further gains, but they have not been able to exploit the Kharkiv offensive into a major breakthrough. 2/ 
The Kharkiv front has stabilized, with the overall correlation of forces not favorable to Moscow there. Russian operations are focused on the following directions: Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Ocheretyne-Pokrovsk, and to a lesser extent Kupyansk. 3/ 
Despite the improved outlook, rectifying manpower deficits will take time. Russian forces are likely to keep advancing over the coming months, especially in Donetsk. The next 2 months will be especially difficult. 4/ 
A change in US policy on weapons employment enabled Ukraine to push Russian S-300s, used to bombard the city, away from Kharkiv. This bought the city breathing space, and forced Russia to make adjustments, although the offensive had already culminated by that point. 5/ 
Addressing manpower gaps remains a priority for Ukraine, but the leading problem is increasingly air defense, both short range systems to cover the front line, and long-range air defense to defend cities, critical infrastructure, and rear areas. 6/ 
Ukraine is very low on ammunition for legacy Soviet systems, whereas Russian drone and missile production rates have increased significantly. A deficit of air defense has led to pervasive Russian UAS reconnaissance behind the front line and increased success rates in strikes. 7/ 
This has a pernicious effect, suppressing artillery, enabling Russian dynamic targeting in the rear, and makes forward deploy long-range air defense a high risk proposition. AFU units are pursuing novel counters, such as interceptor FPV drones, but need scalable solutions. 8/ 
Troops arm themselves with spectrum analyzers to detect signals from Zala, Orlan, and Supercam UAS types. Persistent Russian ISR behind the front lines is a growing challenge, especially since there will be less cover to conceal positions come winter. 9/ 
Russian glide bomb (UMPK/UMPB) strikes have become more accurate, and from greater ranges. They destroy entire positions, and are more psychologically impactful than artillery. Glide bombs level structures in cities that would take days of artillery fire to destroy. 10/ 
The promise of additional Patriot batteries, NASAMS, and Hawks, plus rerouting of missile exports to Ukraine can make a big difference this year. That said, pushing Patriot batteries forward to tackle Russian air strikes will be risky if they cannot themselves be protected. 11/ 
Western munitions have reduced the fires disparity. At Kharkiv there is relative parity of 1:1, elsewhere 5:1 and declining. Though there are still issues with having the right charges, forcing Ukrainian artillery to fire closer to the front line. 12/ 
After the passage of new mobilization laws, Ukraine’s first month of increased mobilization shows significantly higher intake of men. There is a lag effect, mobilized personnel need to receive training, before they are available to refill formations. 13/ 
The number of volunteers (as a share of those mobilized) has also increased. Ukraine’s MoD is working to revamp the image of service, opening recruitment centers, allowing brigades to advertise, and offering volunteers options to choose their unit. 14/ 
While Ukraine works on improving basic training at home, the West will need to help with collective training abroad. Added manpower can stabilize the front line this fall, expanding existing units, and filling out new brigades to enable rotation. 15/ 
The West must also come through with equipment packages to replace losses and kit out new units, otherwise these will be mostly infantry, or at best motorized brigades. Ukrainian units need more M-113s, Bradleys, and basic protected mobility. 16/ 
The Kharkiv offensive did not create the length or depth of buffer Russia sought, but it did pull in Ukrainian reserves to stabilize that front. Consequently, Ukraine’s forces are currently stretched thin, and lateral shifts of units can open gaps. 17/ 
However, Russian forces have struggled to conduct operations at scale, or overcome well prepared defenses. Most of the assaults employ smaller elements of assault groups and detachments. These vary, sometimes 8-15 men, but in cases have dwindled to 4-6 men. 18/ 
Russian forces alternate between mechanized, light vehicle, and dismounted infantry attacks depending on availability of equipment. Some units increasingly employ motorcycles, and ATVs. This is partly reduce equipment losses, but also due to a general inability to overcome traditional prepared defenses, covered by pervasive reconnaissance, and strike UAS. 19/ 
These tactics can yield incremental gains, but they are poorly suited to achieving operationally significant breakthroughs. Larger assaults have proven costly to Russian forces, which cannot afford sustained equipment losses of the kind seen earlier in Avdiivka. 20/ 
The main challenge for Ukraine moving forward is Russia’s strike campaign. While Shahed type drones have become increasingly easy to intercept, Russian air strikes have become more sophisticated, and Russian missile production rates have notably increased compared with 2022. 21/ 
Russian strikes have crippled much of Ukraine’s non-nuclear electricity generation. In the summer Ukraine has been getting by thanks to solar energy, with shut offs at night, but looking at expected gigawatt output vs demand, the country faces its hardest winter yet. 22/ 

Ukraine needs ~16GW this winter, optimistically it will be able to produce 12GW. Getting there will require a combination of increased imports, and numerous gas units in the MW range. More details can be found in articles such as this one here: 23/

Ukraine in Darkness: Preventing the Worst-Case Scenario for Its Energy SystemCompared to the energy system’s resources available before the Russian invasion, Ukraine now has only a quarter of its production capacity. Insuf …https://www.forum-energii.eu/en/ukraine-destroyed-system
Although Ukraine is likely to stabilize the front line, addressing shortages of air defense, power generation, and improving Ukraine’s own strike capability should be a priority for the West as it may prove much more significant for the trajectory of this war. 24/ 

Norway:

Norway is providing an additional NOK 1 billion in funding for air defence in Ukraine 🇺🇦

Together with Germany 🇩🇪, we will donate a compete IRIS-T air defence battery to Ukraine this autumn 🚀

👉 More: https://t.co/1ofCIX5L3H#NATOSummit #IAAD pic.twitter.com/SWKo4XA0f4

— Forsvarsdepartement (@Forsvarsdep) July 11, 2024

Lithuania:

🇱🇹 continues to provide military assistance to 🇺🇦

Today anti-drones, 5.56x45mm ammunition & folding cots have been delivered to @GeneralStaffUA

Lithuania’s support to Ukraine is long-term & amounts to €1 bn

🇱🇹 will keep this momentum going – until victory ✌️ pic.twitter.com/JPZTudkTN1

— Lithuanian MOD 🇱🇹 (@Lithuanian_MoD) July 11, 2024

Canada:

Canada will provide a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at CAD 500 million.

This package will strengthen our warriors on the battlefield.

Thank you, Canada, for your unwavering support!
Together, we will win!
🇺🇦🤝🇨🇦 pic.twitter.com/yKFbNLXGid

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 11, 2024

Denmark:

Denmark is the first NATO country to directly finance Ukrainian production of arms and ammunition.

The first donation of 18 Bohdana artillery systems financed by Denmark is expected to be delivered within the coming months.

We are grateful to our Danish friends for their… pic.twitter.com/rDQkrYMsfX

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 11, 2024

Holland:

The Netherlands is purchasing more than €300 million worth of ammunition for the F-16s.

We are grateful to our Dutch friends and partners from @defensie for this important decision.
Thank you for your co-leadership in the Air Force Capability Coalition and the previously… pic.twitter.com/57wCrYLo3U

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 11, 2024

The Netherlands is purchasing more than €300 million worth of ammunition for the F-16s.

We are grateful to our Dutch friends and partners from @defensie for this important decision.
Thank you for your co-leadership in the Air Force Capability Coalition and the previously announced decision to donate 24 Dutch F-16s to Ukraine.

F-16s will definitely strengthen the defense of our cities and the capabilities of 🇺🇦 defense forces in the air.
🇺🇦🤝🇳🇱

The US:

Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine. (PDA) package of $225 million.https://t.co/C7ZKF9uYsb

P.S: This is an impressively low estimated cost for a package that includes an entire Patriot battery. pic.twitter.com/3ZCBH3Hg8X

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 11, 2024

Estonia:

“But the war in Ukraine and our response to it also determine whether NATO is credible. Whether it is also acting as deterrence for Russia. Why we don’t have a war in NATO countries is because Russia is not taking up that fight. Why Ukraine is having this war is because they are… pic.twitter.com/67XLQtQFn4

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 11, 2024

“But the war in Ukraine and our response to it also determine whether NATO is credible. Whether it is also acting as deterrence for Russia. Why we don’t have a war in NATO countries is because Russia is not taking up that fight. Why Ukraine is having this war is because they are in the gray zone. They are not under NATO’s umbrella,” – Kaja Kallas.

@kajakallas is convinced that Ukraine should become a member of NATO if the Alliance wants to get rid of conflicts and “gray zones” in Europe.

Kharkiv:

A man carries water home through the pitch-black darkness of a Kharkiv night. Today, we had more power outages than hours with electricity. pic.twitter.com/MvaPPBKNgL

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) July 11, 2024

In two months (since May 10, when the Russian offensive on Kharkiv began), Russians killed 125 civilians, including 4 children, in Kharkiv region with missile and bomb attacks.

772 people, including 42 children, were injured – head of Kharkiv region police via Suspilne.… pic.twitter.com/8ax14ywHwG

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 11, 2024

In two months (since May 10, when the Russian offensive on Kharkiv began), Russians killed 125 civilians, including 4 children, in Kharkiv region with missile and bomb attacks.

772 people, including 42 children, were injured – head of Kharkiv region police via Suspilne.

Evacuation of civilian population continues.

Russia strikes Ukraine from its own territory. Russians use a large number of airfields. They have airfields in Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk, Rostov regions. Not all of them are adapted for the use of strategic aircraft. For example, for Tu-22M3 or Tu-95MS aircraft, which are used to launch long-range Kh-101 and Kh-22 missiles, there is a limited number of airfields.

These airfields are Engels-2, Ukrainka (located several thousand kilometers from the border with Ukraine), Olenya and others.

‼️ These airfields are located several thousand kilometers from the border with Ukraine. If they are destroyed, the number of Russian attacks on Ukraine will drop dramatically. These are legitimate military targets for Ukraine.

Currently, Ukraine has restrictions on the use of Western weapons on Russian territory. The basic position on the use of weapons is the same – they can only be used in close range to Ukrainian internationally recognized borders.

Ukrainian Allies continue to search for a formula so that they are not accused of a direct attack on the Russian Federation. In fact, none of those who have transferred long-range weapons to Ukraine have yet clearly stated: “there are no restrictions except for international humanitarian law”.

The option of closing the skies over Ukraine was discussed, but it was also perceived as escalation.

Increasing Ukrainian air defense capabilities is an extremely necessary and overdue step. But this process is protracted, and the volumes of what we receive are insufficient. The logistics are such that it takes months to actually deliver what was promised. During this time, Russians will primarily destroy the remnants of Ukrainian energy system and the objects that could be protected otherwise.

Zuhres, Donetsk Oblast:

/2. Geolocation of Russian TOR attempt to shot down Ukrainian reconnaissance drone. 45km from the frontline. https://t.co/P3Fe0tqfa6 pic.twitter.com/COQP0j8Cbv

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 11, 2024

8 more Ukrainian children have been returned home to Ukraine:

“They beat me so hard that I started to lose consciousness. They tore people’s nails off, electrocuted, tortured and kept people in cages.”

Eight more children from the occupied territories have been returned to Ukraine. According to the Save Ukraine charity organization,… pic.twitter.com/doM3UxgI0H

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 11, 2024

“They beat me so hard that I started to lose consciousness. They tore people’s nails off, electrocuted, tortured and kept people in cages.”

Eight more children from the occupied territories have been returned to Ukraine. According to the Save Ukraine charity organization, children from 7 to 17 years old from the occupied part of Kherson and Donetsk regions are among them.

In total, the Save Ukraine team managed to rescue 405 children from Russia and the temporarily occupied territories.

📹: Save Ukraine

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 869: Russia’s Wetwork ProgramPost + Comments (16)

Open Thread

by @heymistermix.com|  July 11, 20244:04 pm| 336 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Sorry, busy today, but here’s a thread.

Open ThreadPost + Comments (336)

Open Thread: Lawrence Is Worth A Listen

by TaMara|  July 11, 202410:28 am| 426 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics

This is worth a watch:

There is absolutely no evidence that will convince those “Biden must step down” folks and I just don’t see any point in trying. But there is plenty of evidence that this MSM nonsense is not having the impact they thought it would have – polls remain mostly unaffected, but that could change if we don’t shift the messaging ASAP.  And it’s July people…if inflation continues to dip and the predicted reduction in interest happens in Sept…those polls could change dramatically.

This interview with Ron Klain is pretty straightforward and doesn’t sugarcoat things:

Greg Sargent: So in the current FiveThirtyEight polling averages, Trump leads Biden by 2.2 points nationally, 3.4 points in Pennsylvania, 1.6 points in Wisconsin, and 0.7 points in Michigan. To win, Biden has to take those three Rust Belt states plus Nebraska’s second district at a minimum. And in those averages, Biden trails by a lot more in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, up to five points in them. I just want to know, Ron, do you contest that general depiction of the current state of the race? Do you think those numbers are in the ballpark of where things actually stand right now, or not?

Ron Klain: I think they’re in the ballpark, Greg. I think actually the president’s doing a little better than that. I’ve seen other polls that have him leading in some of those battleground states or tied in some of those battleground states. It depends if you do the two-way or the three-way and what your likely voter screen looks like. But look, I’ve said all along, it’s a very close race. And I’m not saying Joe Biden has it in the bag, but I do believe firmly that he is the best Democratic candidate and is the person most likely to beat Trump, having beaten Trump previously.

I think, if we are serious here, we need to stop trying to pushback on the “Biden has to go” bullshit (not happening, and here’s Klain’s take on that):

Ron Klain: Greg, I think that he has to continue to do what he’s doing and do more of it. I think people need to hear his vision for a second term. They need to see that he’s still fighting for them. I think he needs to kind of move forward on some key issues like bringing down costs and continuing to fight kind of the—as he mentioned in the debate—the question of the lingering impacts of the pandemic and corporate greed, continuing to fight those issues and continuing to have a strong progressive economic message, which I think is one thing that unites a lot of those groups you’ve been talking about. Maybe not so much the Trump-disaffected Lincoln Project type people, but for a lot of the other voters in Pennsylvania and Michigan, that economic populism that was successful in the 2020 campaign, I think needs to be brought back with more vigor.

I’ve been talking about that all year long. And look, I think that he is uniquely positioned to do that. And when I hear people talk about him getting out, I mean, the only precedent for that is 1968. And I’ll remind people how 1968 ended. It did not end with the Democrats’ substitute candidate holding on to the White House. It ended with Richard Nixon being our president. So I don’t see why 1968 is anyone’s role model for how the presidential campaign should go.

And instead, pivot all discussions to how unfit Trump is and how dangerous his Project 2025 cabinet would be. Anything else feels like political misconduct.

Looks like the NYT, which may or may not be bleeding subscribers, are trying to pivot.

 

LOL. Read: “We are bleeding subscribers for asking Biden to drop out so let’s ask Trump to drop out and see if we can get them back.”

Nope @nytimes. WAY too late. You’ll never get a dime from me for news ever again. https://t.co/CpmDCsKulQ

— Mueller, She Wrote (@MuellerSheWrote) July 11, 2024

“HE IS DANGEROUS,” the Times declares in all caps. “IN WORD, DEED AND ACTION.”

Whatever you traitorous rag.

I wrote a bit about my experience this week in deep red land if you’re interested.

We have work to do.

Open thread, try to play nice (I know, I know, but I had to try)

Open Thread: Lawrence Is Worth A ListenPost + Comments (426)

Thursday Morning Open Thread: #RidingWithBiden

by Anne Laurie|  July 11, 20248:44 am| 291 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Open Threads, President Biden, Proud to Be A Democrat

Here's how to watch Biden's news conference Thursday as he tries to quiet doubts after the debate https://t.co/TLMf4JVR0B

— The Associated Press (@AP) July 11, 2024

… When is the news conference?
Biden is scheduled to take questions from the White House press corps at 5:30 p.m. Thursday.

Where is Biden speaking?
Biden will be speaking from the Walter E. Washington Convention Center, a short distance from the White House, where many events of the ongoing NATO summit are being held.

What channel is carrying it?
The White House streams much of its live content. Given the attention on this event, television networks could also break away from programming to carry Biden’s remarks live once he starts speaking.

The Associated Press will offer a livestream at apnews.com.

Who will be watching?
Probably a lot of people.

CNN reported that 51 million people watched the Atlanta debate, which was in primetime, while more than 8 million people tuned in to watch Biden’s ABC interview live. If networks break into their daily coverage or cable channels carry it live, that will guarantee a significant number of eyes on Biden…

Biden returns to the campaign trail with a trip to Michigan Friday. He will also do an interview with NBC on Monday.

Michigan:

Whitmer: We have a choice between Donald Trump for four years, which would be destruction of our economy, of our individual rights of our ability to grow manufacturing, which is all happened under Joe Biden. And Joe Biden. Until Joe Biden says otherwise he is our candidate pic.twitter.com/IVHxBhUcgi

— Acyn (@Acyn) July 11, 2024

show full post on front page

MONDAY: President Joe Biden to sit down with @LesterHoltNBC in an exclusive one-on-one interview.

Watch the interview in its entirety on NBC and NBC News NOW on Monday, July 15 at 9 p.m. ET. pic.twitter.com/T0HIi7RDxS

— NBC Nightly News with Lester Holt (@NBCNightlyNews) July 10, 2024


 

What an amazing moment. The President of the AFL-CIO union gave President Biden a STRONG endorsement yesterday “You support working families, you've always had our back. We have your back.” Love this. Biden stands with hard working Americans! pic.twitter.com/NfjrW3dolv

— Harry Sisson (@harryjsisson) July 11, 2024

With all the fabricated stories coming out of CNN, MSNBC and The New York Times today, how many people know the AFL-CIO just reaffirmed their endorsement of Biden for president? https://t.co/t3yPL7abwy

— Ragnarok Lobster ?? (@eclecticbrotha) July 11, 2024


 
I think I owe Rikyrah a hat tip for this one…

So you’re just gonna steal democracy from us? We voted and we chose President Biden as our nominee. pic.twitter.com/GmQqpBVzip

— 2RawTooReal (@2RawTooReal) July 11, 2024

Thursday Morning Open Thread: #RidingWithBidenPost + Comments (291)

Dank Grey Dawn Open Thread: No Pitch Hot and the Devil to Pay

by Anne Laurie|  July 11, 20245:14 am| 206 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Open Threads, Republicans in Disarray!, Trump Crime Cartel

I’m still looking for any enterprising hard hitting journalist to ask Trump and his minions why the hell is he randomly holding a rally on his golf course in the very not battleground state of Florida during a high heat alert at all? Why isn’t he traveling? Why has Mr. Vigorous… https://t.co/U9cIll8zDp

— Fred Wellman (@FPWellman) July 9, 2024

When my Irish granny used the title phrase, she referred to a much older meaning than the nautical one; there’s a quasi-medieval story that one who makes a deal with the devil will be called down to hell at the worst possible time to heat the tar they don’t have ready to hand in their days of earthly success.

Given the general understanding that every Republican accusation is a projection, perhaps it is worth paying attention to TFG’s actions over the last ten days or so?…

WOW!!! MSNBC just played a side-by-side of President Biden’s NATO speech and Donald Trump’s unhinged speech in Florida yesterday and the difference is remarkable. Biden sounds like a president, Trump sounds like a clown. pic.twitter.com/3Xzpxwa0Q2

— Harry Sisson (@harryjsisson) July 10, 2024

His handlers got him stuffed into a suit — took an hour longer than they planned — gave him a free hand with the bronzer, and guided him up on the stage to perform the greatest hits for his willing-to-be-pleased groupies…

Not sure what happened here pic.twitter.com/N03CeFwHkA

— Acyn (@Acyn) July 10, 2024

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"Mothers will never again be forced to watch their children overdosing and hosp–lee. And we will never allow mothers to watch their child hopelessly dying in their arms, screaming, 'What can I do? What can I do?"
— Yo. TV folk. Guy's still a maniac.

— Charles P. Pierce (@CharlesPPierce) July 10, 2024

Didn’t Trump leak our nuclear sub detection capabilities to a foreign national?

(Yes. He did.) https://t.co/HRlKl6iZnT

— Mueller, She Wrote (@MuellerSheWrote) July 10, 2024

Trump: "But when people who love our country protest on January 6 in Washington, they become hostages unfairly imprisoned for long periods of time. But fortunately, the Supreme Court has just ruled and they should be out soon." pic.twitter.com/vaYhvvvkC4

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) July 10, 2024

He is not rambling. He is telling his devoted followers that he will destroy them, telling them over and over that he sees them as "food" for his bank account & ego. https://t.co/IEq29ZsxAR

— Ruth Ben-Ghiat (@ruthbenghiat) July 11, 2024


 
Memories…

Trump’s Former Department of Homeland Security Chief of Staff, Miles Taylor: “He is a f*cking idiot!” pic.twitter.com/d6AFgJMeDp

— Reg Saddler (@zaibatsu) July 10, 2024

Again with the classic arc: Aging warlord calls up his youngest son, publicly pits him against the older ‘boys’ who’ve been working for the old man since forever. Because that’s never caused trouble in the company biz before…

The last Trump spawn joins the family grift empire.

Something is very creepy about this kid.
pic.twitter.com/9saGmTj0Tn

— Marlene Robertson (@marlene4719) July 10, 2024


 
But what of his last current wife?

President of Log Cabin Republicans on why Melania will help Trump win the LBGT vote: “Mrs. Trump has a long history of supporting efforts around unity & inclusion. She is a self-made woman, having a very successful career before she met Donald Trump.” pic.twitter.com/B7PQdgvlOo

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) July 9, 2024

Rich men in suits, looking to share their money? Melania’s there.

Yawping human trash, spending their government disability payments on trinkets enshrining their godling? That’s what Melania fought her way out of Slovenia to get away from!

Melania on Monday with her “personal stylist” Herve Pierre Braillard, who is paid $18,000 a month from Trump’s Save America PAC despite the fact that Melania hasn’t attended a single campaign event and won’t be seen in public with her husband. pic.twitter.com/6sxe5DuYNB

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) July 10, 2024

When the end is in plain sight, the dictator’s kinfolk grab everything they can lift and (try to) slip out the back gate before the mob breaks in.

Next week’s RNC convention — ‘headed’ by Lara Trump — should be lit.

Dank Grey Dawn Open Thread: No Pitch Hot and the Devil to PayPost + Comments (206)

Wednesday Night Open Thread: James Comer Is Back on His Bullsh*t

by Anne Laurie|  July 10, 202410:20 pm| 189 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Open Threads, Republican Venality, Our Failed Media Experiment

Scoop: GOP-led House Oversight subpoenas top White House aides Anthony Bernal, Annie Tomasini, and Ashley Williams for closed door depositions later this month about the president's health.
All 3 are low-profile but very influential inside the WHhttps://t.co/in165uYCwS

— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) July 10, 2024


We regret to inform you…

The GOP-led House Oversight Committee subpoenaed three senior White House aides Wednesday, demanding they sit for depositions regarding President Biden’s health, according to letters obtained by Axios.

Why it matters: The subpoenas signal Republicans’ desire to investigate whether some of Biden’s closest aides essentially have hidden the 81-year-old president’s true condition, in a probe that could drag through the Nov. 5 election…

Driving the news: Oversight chair James Comer (R-Ky.) subpoenaed First Lady Jill Biden’s top aide Anthony Bernal, deputy chief of staff Annie Tomasini, and senior adviser Ashley Williams, according to the letters.

= All three are low-profile but very influential inside the White House, Biden officials have told Axios.

= Comer asked for the aides to respond by July 17 and requested they sit for closed-door interviews later this month.

= He also cited a recent Axios report about Bernal and Tomasini having access to the first family’s residence — a situation that White House residence staff found unusual since political staffers often don’t have such access.

What they’re saying: In each letter, Comer writes that the committee is “concerned” that each official is “one of several White House staffers who have taken it upon themselves to run the country while the President cannot.”…

White House spokesperson Ian Sams said in a statement: “Like everything Congressman Comer has done over the past year, these subpoenas are a baseless political stunt intended for him to get media attention instead of engage in legitimate oversight.”

“His partisan attacks on the president have been discredited, and now he continues to debase the House by weaponizing subpoenas to get headlines instead of seeking information through the proper constitutional process.”

Zoom out: Comer recently helped lead an impeachment inquiry into Biden that included interviewing several members of the president’s family.

The inquiry ultimately fizzled out, however, and Biden wasn’t impeached.

No doubt Comer’s latest attention grab will be the subject of many TFG donation-demanding emails, and probably garner the man some applause at next week’s Milwaukee convention. And that’s the last we’ll hear of it, assuming virtue triumphs come November.

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If one should happen to be keeping a list of Very Serious Media people not to trust, here’s an earlier discussion of Comer’s scribe Axios reporter Alex Thompson:

His Biden book deal went south and this angle has been a golden opportunity for him to revive it. pic.twitter.com/HaCaSihVRU

— A.J. Carrillo (@ajcarrillo) July 9, 2024

Axios has chosen its side…

No, Axios. Chuck Schumer is not "open" to dumping Biden, nor did Schumer ever say he was "open" to dumping Biden anywhere in the article you just posted. Also, the source who said Schumer was "open to dumping Biden" is, of course, anonymous. Pure & utter disinformation from Axios

— Dash Dobrofsky (@DashDobrofsky) July 10, 2024

????Scoop: Chuck Schumer is open to dumping Biden at the top of the ticket, three sources tell us.

Schumer is hearing from donors and assessing to path forward. A Schumer spox declined to comment.

W/ @HansNichols https://t.co/tktGYixnpn

— Stephen Neukam (@stephen_neukam) July 10, 2024

…Over the last 12 days, Schumer has been listening to donors’ ideas and suggestions about the best way forward for the party, according to three people familiar with the matter.

The majority leader is one of several Democrats, including former President Obama and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who has the political and personal standing to convince Biden to step aside. Even so, Biden can still dig in and the delegates are pledged to him.

“As I have made clear repeatedly publicly and privately, I support President Biden and remain committed to ensuring Donald Trump is defeated in November,” Schumer said in a statement after this story was published…

I’m really looking forward to the RNC convention, and not just for my own lulz.

Wednesday Night Open Thread: James Comer Is Back on His Bullsh*tPost + Comments (189)

War for Ukraine Day 868: What Does Underway Actually Mean?

by Adam L Silverman|  July 10, 20249:04 pm| 14 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Painting by NEIVANMADE. The background is black. There is a white cross in a broken window frame. In front of it is a hispital bed with an IV stand falling across it. Wires from a broken monitor on the right are strewn on the floor with a yellow basketball on the right and teddy bear on the left. In the foreground are fragments of a Russian cruise missile, which are red, and have the "Z" war symbol. In the top of the painting in grey is written "Children's Hospital." Below that in red "Is Just Another Target for Russia" is written.

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A couple of quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is still doing very well after her first chemo treatment of round three on Monday. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, the new router arrived this afternoon. It actually set up without any problems. And I’m back up and running. Despite the old one only being a couple of years old, it is amazingly fast, even with the VPN.

“Military target ”
2024#Ukraine #Ukrart #borisgroh pic.twitter.com/GV1cHa3fcQ

— borisgroh.bsky.social 🇺🇦 (@BorisGrohArt) July 10, 2024

More on the butcher’s bill from the attack on Kyiv on Monday.

A boy who was in critical condition in the intensive care unit at the time of the Russian missile attack on the Okhmatdyt children’s hospital has died in one of Kyiv’s hospitals – Ukrainian Health Minister.

Deepest condolences to his family. Russia continues killing our kids. https://t.co/7a1lQHUCxY

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 10, 2024

“I did not feel [the glass] in my back. But a lot of it was taken out.”

Oleh Holubchenko, a doctor in a blood-stained uniform, whose photo went viral, told about what he experienced during the Russian missile attack on Ohmatdyt children’s hospital.

At the time of the attack, he… https://t.co/YsoO13Xhvr pic.twitter.com/ACLtNIHBkI

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 10, 2024

“I did not feel [the glass] in my back. But a lot of it was taken out.”

Oleh Holubchenko, a doctor in a blood-stained uniform, whose photo went viral, told about what he experienced during the Russian missile attack on Ohmatdyt children’s hospital.

At the time of the attack, he was performing surgery on the child’s face. He says he heard the explosions and thought the missiles were not flying at the children’s hospital. The device broke down after the hit, and the child was left without ventilation, but the doctors used their wits and saved the little patient.

The child was carried to the shelter right from the operating table. After that, Oleh Holubchenko called his pregnant wife, told her that he was fine, and ran to the shattered toxicology building to clear the rubble with the glass fragments in his back.

He is back at work, saving lives. What an incredible person Oleh is.

📹: TSN

On July 8, five people were killed in the ADONIS clinic as a result of a Russian missile attack on Kyiv.

◾️Svitlana Poplavska was an obstetrician-gynecologist and mother of three children.

◾️Tetiana Sharova was a senior nurse and mother. In 2014, at the beginning of the war,… https://t.co/afBngqIH7u pic.twitter.com/nzJC1NaYPh

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 10, 2024

On July 8, five people were killed in the ADONIS clinic as a result of a Russian missile attack on Kyiv.

◾️Svitlana Poplavska was an obstetrician-gynecologist and mother of three children.

◾️Tetiana Sharova was a senior nurse and mother. In 2014, at the beginning of the war, she and her family fled from Donetsk. Her son was in Russian captivity.

◾️Viktor Brahutsa was an ultrasound diagnostics doctor, father of two daughters.

◾️Oksana Korzh was a nurse and mother of two children. Her younger son graduated from school this year, and her older daughter recently gave birth to twins.

◾️Viktoriia Bondarenko was a senior cashier and mother of two children.

Eternal memory. Deepest condolences to the families.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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We Continue Our Work in Washington, and There Will Be a Decision Regarding the F-16s Very Soon – Address by the President

10 July 2024 – 16:12

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, we continue our work in Washington. Very soon, there will be a decision regarding the F-16s. We are increasing the number of aircraft available to Ukraine. Yesterday, we secured a decision on 5 more Patriots and dozens of other air defense systems for Ukraine, and today – a decision on aircraft. There will also be two new security agreements. These agreements include support for sanctions against Russia, support for our accession to the EU and NATO, support for our defense – our soldiers, all our people, and reconstruction – all of this is taken into account in the security agreements exactly as needed.

And our meetings. There will be at least ten negotiations with state leaders. I am grateful to our entire team for their activity. Today, there will also be meetings in the U.S. Congress – both parties, both chambers. We appreciate the American support and will discuss how to add even more good results to our cooperation with America – preferably, long-range and far-reaching. Thank you to everyone who helps! Every day we are becoming stronger and getting closer to a just peace.

Glory to Ukraine!

Denmark and Holland:

🇺🇦 🇩🇰 🇳🇱 An important and productive meeting with the Minister of Defence of Denmark, @troelslundp and the Minister of Defence of the Netherlands @DefensieMin, Ruben Brekelmans.

The key issue of the meeting was the transfer of F-16 fighters to Ukraine. We are preparing to meet… pic.twitter.com/JZVRa3f4R4

— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) July 10, 2024

🇺🇦 🇩🇰 🇳🇱 An important and productive meeting with the Minister of Defence of Denmark,
@troelslundp and the Minister of Defence of the Netherlands @DefensieMin, Ruben Brekelmans.

The key issue of the meeting was the transfer of F-16 fighters to Ukraine. We are preparing to meet modern fighter jets in the Ukrainian skies.

We also discussed investments in our defence industry.
Denmark is the first NATO country to directly finance Ukrainian production of arms and ammunition. Thank you, Denmark, for your leadership! The first contract is to be signed soon.

Another priority is the establishment of joint ventures. We discussed a model of joint investment in the production of weapons.
Ministry of Defense is creating the “Defense Fund” to be the main partner for our foreign allies in creating joint ventures.

I sincerely thank Denmark and the Netherlands for their support. Together we are stronger.

🇺🇦🤝🇩🇰🤝🇳🇱

Norway:

+6 F-16s from Norway 🔥

Norway will donate six F-16 fighters to Ukraine. 🇳🇴 Prime Minister @jonasgahrstore announced that the donations will start in 2024.

We are grateful for this important decision by our Norwegian friends. Ukraine is waiting for F-16s in our sky!… pic.twitter.com/7rS64qNQhg

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 10, 2024

+6 F-16s from Norway 🔥

Norway will donate six F-16 fighters to Ukraine. 🇳🇴 Prime Minister
@jonasgahrstore announced that the donations will start in 2024.

We are grateful for this important decision by our Norwegian friends. Ukraine is waiting for F-16s in our sky!

@Forsvarsdep @Bjornarildgram

New Zealand:

New Zealand announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at NZD 6 million ($3,68 million).
The package includes allocation of $2.45 million for the Drone Coalition within the #UDCG and $1,23 million for the military medical needs.

Despite the significant distance… pic.twitter.com/fWu03TP3NM

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 10, 2024

New Zealand announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at NZD 6 million ($3,68 million).
The package includes allocation of $2.45 million for the Drone Coalition within the #UDCG and $1,23 million for the military medical needs.

Despite the significant distance between our countries, we are united by common values. We continue our fight for freedom! Thank you, New Zealand!
🇺🇦🤝🇳🇿
@chrisluxonmp

NATO:

NATO countries (🇺🇸 🇳🇱 🇩🇪 🇮🇹 🇷🇴) have announced the donation of 5 more air defense systems to Ukraine.

The package includes additional #Patriot and #SAMP-T systems, and components for their operation. We are grateful to our allies from the USA, Germany, Romania, the Netherlands,… pic.twitter.com/riu8KbVhNx

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 10, 2024

NATO countries (🇺🇸 🇳🇱 🇩🇪 🇮🇹 🇷🇴) have announced the donation of 5 more air defense systems to Ukraine.

The package includes additional #Patriot and #SAMP-T systems, and components for their operation. We are grateful to our allies from the USA, Germany, Romania, the Netherlands, and Italy.

Also, in the coming months, the US and its allies will provide dozens of tactical air defense systems: NASAMS, HAWK, IRIS T-SLM, IRIS T-SLS, and Gepard.
Special thanks to Canada, Norway, Spain, the United Kingdom, and other countries for providing these systems and interceptors.

Lithuania:

Leaving Ukraine outside of any security arrangement in Europe means that you are inviting attack.@AtlanticCouncil pic.twitter.com/tQM1vIOmE9

— Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 (@GLandsbergis) July 10, 2024

🇱🇹 Government just allocated 1 mln EUR to support recovery of Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital in Kyiv 🇺🇦 and other medical facilities brutally and intentionally shelled by russia.
The only way to stop the terrorist state is by scaling up support to Ukraine‘s victory. The only just…

— Ingrida Šimonytė (@IngridaSimonyte) July 10, 2024

The UK:

I held my first meeting with the new UK Prime Minister @Keir_Starmer.

I thanked Prime Minister Starmer for all the UK’s military and financial assistance provided to our country. This morning, I learned about the permission to use Storm Shadow missiles against military targets… pic.twitter.com/zEHHpLh105

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) July 10, 2024

I held my first meeting with the new UK Prime Minister @Keir_Starmer.

I thanked Prime Minister Starmer for all the UK’s military and financial assistance provided to our country. This morning, I learned about the permission to use Storm Shadow missiles against military targets in Russian territory. Today, we had the opportunity to discuss the practical implementation of this decision.

I’m grateful to the UK for its unwavering support for Ukraine and our people.

🇺🇦🇬🇧

Today, Secretary Blinken said this:

❗️”As we speak, the transfer of F-16 jets is underway, coming from Denmark and the Netherlands. Those jets will be flying in the skies of Ukraine this summer, to make sure that Ukraine can continue to effectively defend itself against the Russian aggression.” – US Secretary of… pic.twitter.com/qCn7dS4FcD

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 10, 2024

❗️”As we speak, the transfer of F-16 jets is underway, coming from Denmark and the Netherlands. Those jets will be flying in the skies of Ukraine this summer, to make sure that Ukraine can continue to effectively defend itself against the Russian aggression.” – US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

While this is good news, what does underway actually mean here? We know from other reporting that the first twelve or so planes, as well as the pilots and maintenance crews, won’t be ready for several more months. So what does the transfer is underway mean? Are we talking the paperwork? There’s also only about ten weeks left in summer 2024. Are these things going to actually get to Ukraine and in the air by the 22 of September? All the previous statements from the Danish and Dutch governments, as well as the Biden administration, make that unlikely. At this point Blinken needs to either put up or shut up.

Because restrictions, negotiations with the beast, and other hypocritical games of pretending to be blind doves of peace only lead to another tragedy.#NEIVANMADE@JPLindsley @caukraine2022 pic.twitter.com/Q3YT5LrXRy

— #NEIVANMADE (@neivanmade) July 9, 2024

President Zelenskyy calls on the US to lift all restrictions on strikes on Russian territory: this will protect Ukrainian cities from shelling. pic.twitter.com/Z6mMfmEfPC

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 10, 2024

Speaker Johnson then picked the low hanging fruit:

Speaker Mike Johnson was asked his opinion on lifting restrictions from the Ukrainian Army for long-range strikes to the Russian territory.

He said he was “a supporter” of the AFU deciding the best way to use the weapons received from the U.S.

📹: Voice of America https://t.co/ENrrvVDLXe pic.twitter.com/rikFndO8wm

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 10, 2024

But but but Putin wants peace https://t.co/jY0XxyKkf3

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 10, 2024

Here’s the full text of Trofimov’s tweet:

Medvedev: Even if Ukraine surrenders the territories we claim and renounces NATO aspirations in exchange for a peace deal, sooner or later we would still have to put the nail into the coffin of Ukrainian statehood and return the rest of the country’s lands “into the bosom of Russia.”
Cc: Western governments hoping for a diplomatic solution.

https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/515

I’ve written an op-ed for @latimes on the make-Ukraine-surrender-for-peace delusion that is being so persistently propagated by Putin fans in the West.

Well, no surprises here – America and the entire West is not “prolonging the war” by helping Ukraine defend itself.

You…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 10, 2024

From The LA Times:

Kyiv, Ukraine — 

We hear this refrain a lot these days: “America is only prolonging the war by helping Ukraine. We need diplomacy.”

To Ukrainian ears, however, “diplomacy” sounds like a euphemism for “Ukraine surrendering and ceasing to exist.”

Admittedly, an honest question underlies the refrain: Why can’t Ukraine seek peace with Russia?

But here’s how the question could be rephrased: Why not give away huge swaths of sovereign territory to a brutal and corrupt regime? Why not stay away from NATO, allow the Russian sanctions to be lifted, create a demilitarized zone (sacrificing more territory, of course) and aspire to mutual trust?

The answers are obvious, given the reality on the ground and in the fevered mind of Vladimir Putin, especially this week, after Russia bombed the children’s hospital in Kyiv in a massive daytime missile attack that killed at least 39 across Ukraine.

For a decade, Russia’s President Putin has played the West’s fear of a European war like a master. The West initially gave in to his threats and persistently kept Ukraine out of NATO (God forbid we trigger a war!) and thus made the invasion of 2014, and the ongoing full-scale war, starting in 2022, inevitable. Ukraine was barred from the world’s most successful defense alliance and was vulnerable to major aggression, which is exactly what the Kremlin wanted.

Since then, exercises in “escalation management” and major restrictions on defense aid to Ukraine have not brought Putin to reason as he carries out the largest European war of aggression since Adolf Hitler. Instead, those limits have cost Ukraine a chance to disable Russia, and instead enabled a long war of attrition.

In this photo taken from video released by Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on Wednesday, July 3, 2024, Russian soldiers fire from their 152-mm «Giatsint-B» howitzer from their position at Ukrainian troops at an undisclosed location in Ukraine. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP)

Half-measures of support have helped Putin to recover from his military’s early failure in northern Ukraine, as well as helping him to adapt to sanctions, to make the war profitable for his elites, to find allies and new markets, and to prepare Russia for perpetual war.

Until very recently, Ukraine was strictly banned from using the West’s weapons to attack military targets inside Russian territory, a red line that effectively tied Ukraine’s hands. Did the Kremlin appreciate the gesture? It did — the Russian military used its safe haven status to prepare new offensives and devastating bombing campaigns unchallenged.

Starting last fall, the chorus demanding a “diplomatic solution” grew louder on the know-nothing right in America, and defense aid foundered for six critical months in Congress, creating a gargantuan shortage of munitions in the Ukrainian military.

The lack of U.S. help did nothing to precipitate a halt in hostilities or bring about the “compromise” that Putin hypocritically chatters about in his periodic surrender ultimatums to Ukraine.

Instead, it expedited Ukraine’s tragic loss of the city of Avdiivka to the Russians in early 2024, as well as Moscow’s overconfident spring offensive in Kharkiv. Ukraine’s front line did not fall, as many predicted, thanks to the valor and inventiveness of the Ukrainian military.

Russia responded to the delay of aid from the U.S. by tripling its missile attacks on Ukraine’s electricity and heating infrastructure, exploiting Ukraine’s under-resourced air defense. Now the lion’s share of Ukraine’s energy production and distribution system is destroyed. Ukrainians go most of the day without electricity, and only heaven knows what nightmare awaits us in the winter to come.

Decision-makers in Washington keep following the same dangerous script over and over. Ukraine asks for weapons and the response comes back: providing X ammunition or Y missile system would cross a red line and cause an escalation. Months-long deliberations follow; the situation in Ukraine worsens. Belated permission is granted and the weapons — artillery, armored vehicles, rocket systems, missiles, air defense, fighter jets — arrive late. Then the whole scenario is repeated, as Ukraine plays catch-up and suffers.

When Ukrainian troops finally got HIMARS rocket launchers in the summer of 2022, they were able to stunningly derail Russia’s logistics, undermine Russia’s immense artillery power, halt a Russian offensive and help precipitate the liberation of Kherson later that year.

The U.S.-made PATRIOT air defense system was an absolute no-go until late 2022, when it could finally be used against Russia’s air force. The long-belated arrival of ATACMS missiles, declared off limits for more than two years, eventually did devastating damage to Russia’s airfields and air defense systems in occupied Crimea. All without “escalating” blowback.

After tallying up the red lines crossed and the consequences, the Kremlin’s nuclear saber-rattling begins to sound a bit tinny, doesn’t it? As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has noted, Putin may be crazy, but his instinct for self-preservation is alive and well. We need to be brave enough to call his bluff.

Placating Putin is not the way to peace; it’s an open invitation to eliminate Ukraine as a nation, absorb its territory and its resources, and install Russian aggressors directly on Europe’s borders.

Putin will stop only when he is made to, with a proper and powerful response that defeats his ability to fight on. Ukrainians held off Russia’s attempted decapitating blitz on Kyiv in February and March 2022 with just that kind of all-out effort.

More at the link.

Kyiv:

They shelled the children’s hospital “Okhmatdyt” and Ukrainian cities on July 8, 2024.@molfar_agency found 95 MiG pilots, military personnel from military unit 06987 at the Engels airbase, and military unit 33310 from Shaikovka: https://t.co/9wsFSVcM5G#RussianWarCrimes pic.twitter.com/Dnrl6xGWza

— Molfar (@molfar_agency) July 9, 2024

SBU has found new evidence that Russia hit the Okhmatdyt children’s hospital with a Kh-101 cruise missile. A fragment of the missile engine was found at the site. Plus:
▪ a fragment of the Kh-101 wing deployment mechanism
▪ a fragment of the Kh-101 jamming unit
▪ the middle… pic.twitter.com/2ibH7s6zk3

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) July 9, 2024

SBU has found new evidence that Russia hit the Okhmatdyt children’s hospital with a Kh-101 cruise missile. A fragment of the missile engine was found at the site. Plus:
▪ a fragment of the Kh-101 wing deployment mechanism
▪ a fragment of the Kh-101 jamming unit
▪ the middle part of the body of the Kh-101 cruise missile (pictured under the rubble);
▪ tail section fairing and a fragment of the Kh-101 cruise missile’s hydraulic unit;
▪ fragments of the Kh-101 cruise missile engine cowling with the inventory (inside) and serial numbers (outside). https://t.me/SBUkr/12348

Kharkiv:

A tank has always been and will be a formidable weapon on the battlefield.
🇺🇦 T-64BV tank in service with the Khartiia brigade is destroying enemy positions in the Kharkiv region. pic.twitter.com/EarWEBoKEe

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 9, 2024

The Zaporizhzhia front:

https://t.co/1WzHLN3zRI

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 9, 2024

Kasputin Yar, Russia:

/2. Kapustin Yar is actively used by Russians as a test range for: air defense missiles, ballistic missiles, ICBMs, etc. Footage from Kapustin Yar published by Russians in mid May. https://t.co/8BpkZLRRQchttps://t.co/2shFrsl7TP https://t.co/s5Lh1qDV0E pic.twitter.com/Ur6I5H35rT

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 9, 2024

Kalach-na-Don, Volgograd Oblast, Russia:

/2. The moment of the strike on Russian oil depot in Kalach-na-Donu pic.twitter.com/vtd5dAw8Ze

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 9, 2024

/2. The moment of the strike on Russian oil depot in Kalach-na-Donu pic.twitter.com/vtd5dAw8Ze

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 9, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

pic.twitter.com/KwamV3jDhz

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) July 5, 2024

The same 😂 pic.twitter.com/y4U4Jzq4X2

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) July 5, 2024

pic.twitter.com/ulC1Ew5GW8

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) July 5, 2024

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 868: What Does Underway Actually Mean?Post + Comments (14)

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