Just another update from North Carolina’s early voting from INSIGHT US:
Democratic and non-affiliated voters are returning their ballots at a rate above 2012. Registered Republicans are not returning their ballots. Even if every incremental independent vote is actually a disgusted Republican vote, the lean GOP vote share for this phase is running 45% behind.
both Dems and independents have posted modest upticks relative to 2012 (107% and 106%, respectively), Republicans are voting at just 55% of their 2012 numbers. And this ‘Trump slump’ fully accounts for the overall decline in ABM voting so far….
Other North Carolina poll-watchers, including HuffPo, CNN, and the New York Times, have already reported that applications for ABM ballots by Republicans are down substantially this year in North Carolina (by 27%, according to the Times). As we show here, Tar Heel state Republicans are lagging even worse in terms of actually voting their ballots.
And yes, it is not all roses. Early voting in Iowa is crashing harder for Dems than it is for Republicans but 15 is greater than 6.
Time to finish the job.