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You are here: Home / Archives for Politics / Politicans / JEB! = John Ellis Not-Bush 2016

JEB! = John Ellis Not-Bush 2016

Thursday Morning Open Thread: Under-Ripe to Rise?

by Anne Laurie|  October 22, 20154:45 am| 175 Comments

This post is in: Election 2016, JEB! = John Ellis Not-Bush 2016, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republicans in Disarray!, Assholes

This is going in the background quote Hall of Fame https://t.co/M65uCGQJJU pic.twitter.com/EP5avhnjVo

— Dan Pfeiffer (@danpfeiffer) October 21, 2015

I don’t remember US News & World Report as a left-leaning publication (/snark), but here’s David Catanese’s report on “The Demise of Jeb Bush“:

… Less than four months before primary voting begins, Bush has sunk into second-tier status in the GOP nominating bout. He’s stuck in a single-digit polling slump, idling between fourth and fifth place in the 15-candidate field, even after his allies have blitzed the television airwaves with more than $5 million in advertising. His much heralded fundraising prowess has also been neutralized, as he’s raised essentially as much money as Sen. Ted Cruz this last quarter and saved less than the rogue upstart Ben Carson.

“What gave [Bush] the status of front-runner is the money that was known that he had raised. But this year, with the field this large, I’m not sure that money will dictate the outcome,” says Iowa state Rep. Mary Ann Hanusa, who attended an early Bush event before endorsing Ohio Gov. John Kasich. “The media called [Bush] the front-runner, but sometimes the voters have other ideas.”…

Even among Bush’s admirers, there’s a gathering sense he can’t win this race anymore – that in order for him to become the nominee, his rivals have to lose it…

Bush’s path to victory seems more elusive each day. And by most standards, his most viable track should have already begun to take shape. Sure, in late October 2011, there were polls that showed Herman Cain holding a small lead for the GOP nomination. But what’s less cited is that eventual nominee Mitt Romney remained consistently in second place, always polling in double-digits and usually in the 20s.

From that barometer, Bush isn’t even close to where Romney was. His current polling looks most like that of Ron Paul, who stayed in the ongoing race until May 2012 but came in fourth place in terms of delegates…

Being classed with the likes of Ron Paul has got to be the most unkindest cut of all. Well, apart from the “he’ll totally be ready for 2020!” remark…

***********
Apart from wishing further confusion to our Repub enemies (same as every day, Pinky!), what’s on the agenda for the day?

Thursday Morning Open Thread: Under-Ripe to Rise?Post + Comments (175)

Open Thread: Reset the “Days Since JEB! Said Something Inexplicably Tone-Deaf” Sign… Again…

by Anne Laurie|  October 21, 201510:42 pm| 54 Comments

This post is in: JEB! = John Ellis Not-Bush 2016, Open Threads, Popular Culture, Clown Shoes

Ahh. Jeb said he saw ads for Supergirl and "she looks pretty hot, I'm looking forward to that." Pauses and adds, "That'll make news."

— Sabrina Siddiqui (@SabrinaSiddiqui) October 22, 2015

I’m beginning to believe the theory that John Ellis is deliberately attempting to sabotage his own campaign. Possibly to spite his mother, the Shelob of Kennebunkport.

@SabrinaSiddiqui I should point out that Supergirl is an illegal immigrant.

— EricP (@EricEricItisme) October 22, 2015

@sabrinasiddiqui Dog whistle for Reddit crowd. He's trying to peel off some of the Ron Paul/GamerGate/Anonymous voters from Rand. Probably.

— Roger Mexico (@roger_mexico) October 22, 2015

Open Thread: Reset the “Days Since JEB! Said Something Inexplicably Tone-Deaf” Sign… Again…Post + Comments (54)

Open Thread: Tap-Dancing Towards Bethlehem Bedlam

by Anne Laurie|  October 21, 20156:05 am| 114 Comments

This post is in: Election 2016, Hail to the Hairpiece, JEB! = John Ellis Not-Bush 2016, Open Threads, Republican Stupidity, Assholes

trumps pet goat jeb luckovich

(Mike Luckovich via GoComics.com)
.

Jeb: the only man so incompetent he can't win a 9/11 argument with Donald Trump. @tnycloseread https://t.co/ESL0pQQUtD

— Nicholas Thompson (@nxthompson) October 19, 2015

Sasha Issenberg, at Bloomberg Politics, scored a long interview with the man who seems to stand in as JEB!’s version of Karl Rove. There has not been this much willful detachment from political reality on display since Baghdad Bob went on hiatus:

When Mike Murphy in June took the helm of his longtime friend and client Jeb Bush’s super-PAC, Right to Rise USA, he disappeared from the media, part of a concerted effort not to draw attention away from the candidate. In mid-August, Murphy—a witty narrator of presidential politics who has also guided campaigns by John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Arnold Schwarzenegger—broke that uncharacteristic silence. “If other campaigns wish that we’re going to uncork money on Donald Trump, they’ll be disappointed,” Murphy told the Washington Post in August. “Trump is, frankly, other people’s problem.”…

The political landscape is now very different. After four months of Trump’s dominating both news coverage and polls, advisers to Bush—at least one of whom anonymously promised a “shock and awe” launch of his candidacy—find themselves where they never expected to be: struggling to reach fifth place in many national and early-state polls. Earlier this month, Murphy welcomed Bloomberg Politics’s Sasha Issenberg to his corner office in an unmarked suite in a Los Angeles office building for a candid and wide-ranging conversation about the super-PAC’s activities, plans, and the newly critical mission it has taken on: the Committee to Save Jeb…

Has the tempo of the race been different than what you had anticipated when you first developed a campaign plan?

Well, I knew it would be kind of hyper because that’s the business now. But one thing in hindsight is we got this paper crown of front-runner early that we didn’t want and I don’t think realistically we should have had. Because what happens is when the punditocracy says, “You’re the front-runner,” then they take a bunch of meaningless polls and a Donald Trump or a Kardashian or whatever jumps in and they say, “Now you’re not the front-runner.” So they put you on trial for them being wrong at the beginning. I think we’re getting a little bit of a bad rap on all that stuff but, you know, who cares? We’re going to power through it.

But the pledge of “shock and awe”—your side contributed to that front-runner designation. Things haven’t quite worked out that way.

I’m going to hunt down whoever came up with that. The bigger story was: we showed a lot of financial strength but we always said the voter strength would build slowly because we had to go tell the story. And somehow the punditocracy said, “Well, financial strength means you have to lead every poll and if you don’t you’re a loser.” I think them being wrong about that is something that we’ve been held accountable. I don’t take it too seriously because I keep saying I think the polls are completely meaningless on a national basis, but it’s irritating noise…

How has Trump’s entry changed the race?

It created a false zombie front-runner. He’s dead politically, he’ll never be president of the United States, ever. By definition I don’t think you can be a front-runner if you’re totally un-electable. I think there’s there an a-priori logic problem in that.

show full post on front page

I assume thus far Trump has crowded out free media for some of the other candidates who could have emerged in your lane.

Yes. I think you can argue it’s been good for us in that it’s cut off oxygen to guys who can’t survive. We have an oxygen tank. I think Jeb is built from atom one to lead the positive conservative primary and I think that’s the ticket to win. Now if there’s been some huge categorical change in the party and the party is completely obsessed with a grievance candidate they can get one. You know, it’s possible: we lose 42 states, it’ll be Republican McGovern. But I think that’s unlikely. Not impossible but unlikely…

The golden nugget in this steaming pile of horse manure, as perceived by the professionals, is that JEB!’s handlers profess their candidate doesn’t have to do better than fourth place in any primaries before mid-March. Here is Jim Newell’s response, in Slate, to “The One Problem the Head of Bush’s Super PAC Can’t Solve“:

… Nowhere, between all his mockery, does he get to the heart of the matter: why people don’t like Jeb Bush right now, and how Right to Rise intends to change that…

… There will always be a fair share of bad national poll coverage. If there’s more of it this time, Murphy can blame the Republican National Committee and its media partners for pegging debate participation to national polling status. But it’s not like Bush is only doing badly in national polls that don’t matter, anyway. He’s doing poorly in polls of early states, too. Bush is doing lousy in Iowa. That’s fine: Bush is one thing and Iowa Republicans are a whole other thing. But he’s also performing lousy in New Hampshire, a state he has spent an extraordinary amount of time in and has been advertising in. He is not leading in Florida, his natural firewall, or South Carolina, the GOP establishment’s traditional firewall for their chosen representative….

Being relatively liked by human beings who vote in elections is an important first step toward winning elections. We need not pay much attention to Bush’s top-line number in national polls, but we can look to his favorability ratings to see what sort of space he has to work with. Monmouth University’s latest national poll, released [Tuesday] morning, finds Bush at 5 percent nationally. Whatever. Skip to the favorability ratings, though, and the picture somehow looks even more grim. Of the six candidates’ whose favorables were polled among Republicans, Bush is the only one underwater—at 37 to 44 percent. This is indicative of the trend, and it corresponds with what any person paying vague attention to the news has seen…

There’s only so much UNLIMITED! CORPORATE! CASH! can do, when your candidate can be slapped around by a fawning Media Village courtier like Jake Tapper…

This video clip is why the Trump 9/11 comments are going to be a new potential headache for Jeb https://t.co/00fiP1NjHJ

— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) October 19, 2015

Dave Weigel, at the Washington Post, has an even less flattering comparison — “Jeb Bush’s allies are starting to sound like Ron Paul’s in 2012… ”

… “We only have 10 pure winner-take-all states now,” Murphy insists. “The Republican Party, we used to be the Social Darwinists: second place got you a Greyhound ticket to Palookaville. Now we’re proportional, mostly by congressional district. From Feb. 1 to March 15, we have a bunch of big states; Ohio, Florida, Illinois, North Carolina probably.”

Issenberg pushes back on Murphy a bit, and gets this remarkable exchange:

MURPHY: March 15 is the big day. On the 16th, I don’t think anybody will have a mathematical lock, but there definitely will be a very strong leading candidate.
ISSENBERG: You’re describing a scenario where a candidate who has never finished higher than third or fourth in any particular state could still be the leading candidate on March 16?
MURPHY: Right.
ISSENBERG: Is that a problem from a media momentum perspective that if you’re not actually winning stuff and getting the coverage that comes along with being a winner?
MURPHY: It would choke out a lot of little guys.

Now, it’s technically true that the quartet of early primary states don’t offer many delegates. When I followed Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) around Alaska and the Pacific Northwest, that was one of his unspoken arguments: Alaska offered more than twice as many delegates as tiny New Hampshire. When I followed Ron Paul’s campaign in 2012, his team (including some former advisers now on trial) insisted that they were notching up delegate wins while a shiny-object-obsessed media focused on who got the most people to say a candidate’s name at non-binding caucuses.

The sages of Twitter have compared Murphy’s strategy to the one that failed Rudy Giuliani in 2008, but it looks a lot more like the one that failed Ron Paul…

Bush at 9 percent in Florida. It's almost like GOP voters don't actually want him to be president. https://t.co/e9BZBgOlbL

— daveweigel (@daveweigel) October 20, 2015

Open Thread: Tap-Dancing Towards <del>Bethlehem</del> BedlamPost + Comments (114)

Open Thread: PUTZ! JAB!… er, JEB!!!

by Anne Laurie|  October 17, 201512:35 pm| 207 Comments

This post is in: Election 2016, Hail to the Hairpiece, JEB! = John Ellis Not-Bush 2016, Open Threads, Republican Stupidity

History's Greatest Mulligan https://t.co/nrJNMqscsL

— Simon Maloy (@SimonMaloy) October 16, 2015

How pathetic for @realdonaldtrump to criticize the president for 9/11. We were attacked & my brother kept us safe.

— Jeb Bush (@JebBush) October 16, 2015

This statement doesn’t make sense. https://t.co/wyCMTnQMHJ

— BOO Wexler (@wexler) October 16, 2015

Not just what it says! The fact Jeb Bush thought it was a good idea to seem real angry *about 9/11* *on Twitter* at *Donald Trump*.

— Jonathan Shainin (@jonathanshainin) October 16, 2015

Jeb's! quote, dumb as it seems, is more understandable when you recall he got away with line in the Fox debate. Must've thought that was it.

— Howard French (@hofrench) October 16, 2015

Maybe Jeb should switch from "My brother kept us safe" to "Welp, it could have been worse."

— Bob Schooley (@Rschooley) October 17, 2015

Open Thread: <del>PUTZ!</del> JAB!… er, JEB!!!Post + Comments (207)

Open Thread: Jeb Bush Is A Deeply Weird Entity

by Anne Laurie|  October 16, 20152:13 am| 250 Comments

This post is in: Election 2016, JEB! = John Ellis Not-Bush 2016, Open Threads, Republican Stupidity, Assholes

Classic Jeb! pic.twitter.com/E3qj1SvstY

— Bob Schooley (@Rschooley) October 16, 2015

Guy seems to be turning into Willard Romney before our very eyes, falling into the Uncanny Valley where a close-but-not-perfect simulacra of humanity disturbs our identification. If he weren’t a member of the Bush crime syndicate clan, one might wonder if his heart was in this campaign. This was the NYTimes, last week — “Jeb Bush Says Campaign Attacks on Him Are Keeping His Ailing Father Strong“:

… Chatting with voters at a coffee shop here on Wednesday morning, Jeb Bush was asked how his parents were doing. His mother Barbara remained the matriarch, he said — a “blessing from God” who is nonetheless “not always right.” (Mrs. Bush famously said there had been “enough Bushes” in the White House, before coming around on the idea of a third one.)

Mr. Bush’s father, George H.W. Bush, is “91 years old, but he’s just as strong as a goat,” he said. The elder Mr. Bush now wears a neck brace and cannot walk. And yet, Mr. Bush suggested, for his father — and by all accounts, no one else — the 2016 presidential campaign had proved a health boon.

“I feel like I’m participating in this a little bit because my candidacy has lifted his spirits,” he said. “I notice he’s not watching ‘CSI’ reruns anymore. He’s watching Fox, getting mad at people that attack me and stuff like that. I feel like I’m making a contribution to keep him strong.”

The Bush family has taken an active role in fund-raising for the campaign, but aides to Mr. Bush have weighed the merits and pitfalls of featuring George W. Bush as a public surrogate. Asked about a New York Times article this week outlining his campaign’s dilemma, Mr. Bush offered a shrug to reporters, saying there was “no grappling going on.”

“There may be a lot of grappling going on outside of my realm,” he said. “My realm on the road is maybe different than people in the campaign. You have to ask them.”

He repeated that he was happy to have his brother’s support, though another endorsement seemed to have required more handiwork.

“I’m happy I got my mom’s support,” he said. “That was huge. That was a big first step.”

And then, those vast “GOP Establishment” cash reserves don’t seem to be doing him much good, per TPM:

The $4.8 million TV and radio ad blitz in New Hampshire by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and his associated super Pacs has done little to bump up his polling in the state, which is considered crucial to his campaign.
A report by Politico Thursday notes that in the weeks since the ad buy — which has pro-Bush ads taking up 60 percent of the political airspace in the state — the former governor’s average poll numbers have actually dipped down, from 9 percent to 8.7 percent…

It’s a real mystery why the GOP base does not want this guy to lead them into battle pic.twitter.com/FraK2yu8oj

— daveweigel (@daveweigel) October 15, 2015

@daveweigel Oh, he's not going to "lead" anyone to battle. He'll be well behind your children in any conflict.

— No Way (@gamerdave69) October 15, 2015

Open Thread: Jeb Bush Is A Deeply Weird EntityPost + Comments (250)

The soft bigotry of no expectations

by David Anderson|  October 15, 201510:46 pm| 127 Comments

This post is in: Because of wow., Free Markets Solve Everything, Fuck The Middle-Class, JEB! = John Ellis Not-Bush 2016, All we want is life beyond the thunderdome, Both Sides Do It!, Fools! Overton Window!

(Trigger Warning: Politico link)

Bush can tweak his message on a day to day basis, cut costs around the margins and even reduce or reallocate staff. But he remains committed to the large campaign infrastructure he has built to run a national campaign, staff members say. What’s changed is the desire to avoid any appearance of extravagence…..the campaign’s early state organizations do surpass those of most rivals, Bush’s other major investments — in paid advertising and a policy shop that’s churning out his speeches — have yet to pay real dividends….

Bush is also pitching serious policy proposals. He has close to 10 staffers working in his campaign’s policy shop

The “wonky”, “serious”, “smart” “technocratic” Republican campaign is making “major” investments in his policy shop. That major investment is under 10 full time employees. I am betting it is eight or nine people including the 23 year old making $23,000 to buy binders, collate TPS reports and fetch coffee. It costs the Bush campaign under $1 million a quarter (my bet is under $300K/quarter) or the price of a mid-level fundraising manager.

Truly the soft bigotry of no expectations of policy competence is at play here.

The soft bigotry of no expectationsPost + Comments (127)

Open Thread: JEB!, Ripe to Rot

by Anne Laurie|  October 6, 201511:02 pm| 135 Comments

This post is in: Election 2016, JEB! = John Ellis Not-Bush 2016, Republicans in Disarray!, Assholes, Ever Get The Feeling You've Been Cheated?, Republican Crime Syndicate - aka the Bush Admin.

The epitaph on the tombstone of Jeb Bush's political career: #stuffhappens pic.twitter.com/Wl8HzYkDRX

— Anthony Breznican (@Breznican) October 2, 2015

Universally beloved commentor Amir Khalid flags a Daily Beast article by (former Daily Caller star) Will Rahn, “Jeb Bush Should Face Facts: It’s Time to Drop Out“…

… After all that money spent, you’re still sagging nationally and in fourth place in New Hampshire, a state you need to win. You’ve had nearly a year to make your case. It isn’t working. You should pack it in.

The conventional wisdom a few months ago was that your brother’s catastrophic presidency would be your bid’s biggest hurdle. Now, in a fit of desperation, it looks like you’re about to draft him to stump for you. Putting aside that George W. is still despised by a not-insignificant swath of the Republican electorate, how is that going to play in the general should you somehow win the nomination? You’re making the Democrats’ job easy, Jeb. They’ll be more than happy to attach you to his legacy, and you’re doing that for them.

Speaking of the Democrats, we know what will happen if you drag this out through next spring. The going thinking right now is that the guys really low in the polls—your Rand Pauls and George Patakis—should be next to drop out. But what damage do they do to the GOP by staying in? You Bushes, meanwhile, for all your patrician aloofness, are some of the dirtiest campaigners out there, and every jab you get in at your fellow establishmentarians like Marco Rubio is going to be used against them by the left. It’s one thing to toughen up a nominee in a primary fight—it’s another to make them damaged goods, unready to lead. If you’ve got some golden piece of oppo that will take Rubio or John Kasich out of consideration, by all means use it now. Otherwise, time to step aside…

Yeah, like Bar Bush would ever permit John Ellis to jump off this train before it jumps the tracks. He’ll never be her favorite son, but he does seem to be the one who inherited the most from her — all the stolid, cruel, uncaring “patrician” contempt for everyone in the world that is not of the Bush clan.

The best you can say about these new polls for Bush is that millions of dollars in ads have stopped his precipitous decline

— Dan Pfeiffer (@danpfeiffer) October 4, 2015

show full post on front page

Politico, last week, “Bush camp moves to ease donor angst“:

… His top bundlers, summoned to Miami for a last-minute call-a-thon, are working hard to convince increasingly anxious donors of their candidate’s strength. Bush’s team is highlighting the benefits of its sizable financial advantage — mainly, a top-notch national organization — in an effort to focus attention on the campaign’s durability but also to demonstrate its superiority in relation to Rubio, whose rise in recent polls represents a growing threat…

“I don’t know if it’s panic or paranoia in Miami, but they are losing [Scott] Walker people to Marco, and if you say what’s true, they get mad,” said one Bush donor, who spoke to POLITICO on the condition of anonymity. “I think it’s just reflective of what’s been going on for the past month or so and the way the race, at least in the establishment lane, has shifted. It’s really Jeb or Marco now. Marco’s fundraising has picked up, and Jeb’s has stayed flat.”

Another Bush donor invited to Miami, assessing the state of anxiety within the former Florida governor’s operation on a scale of 1 to 10, put the panic level at a “6 or 7.”…

“There’s less money out there than people realize,” said Katie Packer Gage, who served as Mitt Romney’s deputy campaign manager in 2012 and whose firm is doing work for Rubio in Michigan. “Lots of donors are holding their money because, if the big donor wants anything, they want to be with a winner, and they want the right candidate.”…

Jeb: “it is a difficult time to be in public life…there’s not much trust”

— Zeke Miller (@ZekeJMiller) October 7, 2015

Will donors stick with @JebBush? http://t.co/n8XVp6QypQ via @MaeveReston & @DanaBashCNN pic.twitter.com/ze5NpLAliX

— CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) October 4, 2015

Looking like Jeb's "nightmare scenario" — as I outlined in March — more and more realistic http://t.co/cbjgQAFSZD

— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) October 2, 2015

The Wall Street Journal laments, “Where Did Jeb Bush Lose Support? Everywhere“:

… Mr. Bush lost support across the board: among men and women, voters under and over 50 years of age, talk-radio listeners, and values and tea-party voters alike. Though his support flagged among likely voters who identified as very conservative and total conservatives, Mr. Bush lost the most ground – a 15-point decline — among self-described moderate and liberals, earning 8% from those voters in September compared with 23% in July.

Voters also have less positive sentiment about the former Florida governor. The change was greatest among likely Republican primary voters, whose positive feelings decreased to 39% from 50%. Meanwhile, negative feelings toward Mr. Bush increased by four points.

EvenThe(Rigidly)Conservative USNews has defected on JEB… replacing him with thirsty one-time protege, Marco Rubio…

@HotlineJosh @daveweigel new bumper sticker: "Jeb! – when you realize you have to settle"

— Larry West (@LarryWest42) October 2, 2015

Hillary again hits Jeb on "stuff happens." "No, that's like an admission of fatalism and defeat. That's not who we are," she says

— Zeke Miller (@ZekeJMiller) October 6, 2015

His campaign might as well have been directed by M. Night Shayamalan, the twist is its been dead all this time. https://t.co/9Z8ETbIVjS

— John Smith (@RikiTikiTavi91) October 2, 2015

Sad to think the money donated to Jeb Bush's campaign could have gone to something more productive, like cocaine fueled Las Vegas weekends

— Jeet Heer (@HeerJeet) October 5, 2015

Open Thread: JEB!, Ripe to RotPost + Comments (135)

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