When I last wrote about Ukraine on the 5th of December, my point was that we were moving too slowly to deter Russia. As in the military assets that needed to be moved, as s demonstration of seriousness and resolve to back up our diplomatic efforts, needed to have started moving in November 2021. In …
Another important thing to keep in mind is that Germany’s current policy posture on Russian aggression is incredibly passive. I don’t think this is because the German’s don’t understand the threat, rather this is the result of Germans’ and Germany’s long, not always complete, and painful reckoning with the history and legacy of World War II and the Holocaust. This significantly weakens the EU’s and NATO’s ability to present a united front to deter Russian aggression towards Ukraine, the Baltics, etc. These two twitter threads, by Ulrike Frankel, also a Senior Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, are an excellent explainer:
I've tried to explain this mindset and where it comes from here – the focus is on my generation but a lot of these ideas are shared more widely (on this also read Thomas Bagger's piece linked in the article).https://t.co/kWzmuaPvAq
— Ulrike Franke (@RikeFranke) January 21, 2022
Massively insightful listening to German radio right now where listeners call in to talk about Russia, Ukraine, arms exports.
"We shouldn't pour oil into the fire", descalation needed, "we shouldn't threaten Russia" etc.— Ulrike Franke (@RikeFranke) January 25, 2022
Dmitri Alperovitch has a very long and very detailed thread delineating Putin’s goals in regard to Alperovitch’s assessment that Putin is going to reinvade/further invade. And Richard Engel has reported indicators that signal a reinvasion/further invasion of Ukraine is more likely:
A Western intelligence official says Russia has brought in many of the enablers it was lacking, including medical and logistics, to carry out a potential military operation against Ukraine.
— Richard Engel (@RichardEngel) January 26, 2022
This was the outstanding question many of us watching this unfold had: is Russia moving the actual sustainment and support personnel and material necessary to actually undertake a reinvasion/further invasion of Ukraine? Engel’s reporting indicates that yes, this is now occurring.
We are fast approaching the point, if we are not actually past it, where events will begin to overtake the decision makers and become the decision makers themselves. Where it won’t matter what Putin is actually willing to risk or what President Biden and our NATO allies are willing to do to counter him, because events will unfold faster than the decision makers can react. All it is going to take is an errant round from the life fire exercise in Belarus or one of the Russian naval vessels coming into contact with the Irish fishing boats that plan to protest the exercise and things will get very sporty very fast.
And this is why I think we are still moving far too slowly and are far too late in placing the necessary assets in place to back up our diplomacy and our use of economic power to try to deter Putin. Right now Putin is getting what he wants: bilateral recognition and negotiation with the US. Putin believes Russia is still a great power the way the Soviet Union was during the Cold War. Being able to negotiate with the US, publicly demand written answers – as if formal diplomatic communication would be done some other way – and then receive them because that’s simply how diplomacy is done allows Putin to claim that victory. In order to deter him, he has to be shown that we have the will and the capability to respond. Deploying some Operational Detachments Alpha and putting the equivalent of a brigade combat team and a half on standby is not going to cut it.
In order to actually demonstrate that we have the will and the capability to respond we would need to mobilize and deploy V Corps and all of 1st Armored Division (all combat brigades and the division artillery), plussed up with one brigade combat team each from 4th Infantry Division, 101st Airborne Division/Air Assault, the 82 Airborne Division, and the 1st Stryker Regiment. This should be accompanied by a country team from the 853rd Civil Affairs Brigade with a full complement of Civil Affairs Teams Alpha (CAT-As) and a country team from the 4th Psychological Operations Group’s 6th Psychological Operations Battalion to place Tactical PSYOP Teams (TPTs) into theater. I’d put the Corps headquarters in Poland, the Division headquarters in either Finland or Estonia, and distribute the conventional forces throughout Poland, Eastonia, Latvia, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. The Special Operations assets – Civil Affairs and PSYOP – go into Kyiv. Then I’d put the Wasp and Kearsarge Amphibious Warfare Groups (AWG) into theater. Wasp and her float off of Finland and Kearsarge and her float in the Black Sea. I’d keep the carrier group farther out for now. In fact I’d put it in the Irish Sea and even more specifically in the “Irish Box” between Ireland and England. I’d also want Air Force Special Operations – Air Commandos and Para-Rescue, as well as forward observer controllers who paint targets – moved into theater. I’d also want our NATO allies to keep doing what they’re doing, put moving three or four Dutch F-16s to Poland isn’t sufficient either.
We are behind, we are not moving fast enough, we are late! And, as a result, things are going to get out of control!
Finally, unlike past national security crises since the end of World War II, we cannot expect the American people to rally round the flag. Tucker Carlson, the Kremlin’s favorite cable news talking head, has been working hard to ensure that just like in the run up to World War II, a significant portion of Americans and American elected officials from one political party are pro-fascist, virulently isolationist, and rooting for our enemies.
Behind the scenes: Carlson has had a profound effect on how Republican candidates talk about the Russia-Ukraine issue, according to GOP operatives working on primary races.
- GOP offices have been fielding numerous calls from voters echoing arguments they heard on Carlson’s 8 p.m. ET show. Carlson has been telling his viewers there is no reason why the U.S. should help Ukraine fight Russia.
- Even Democratic offices have been fielding these calls from Carlson’s viewers. Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.) tweeted that he got “calls from folks who say they watch Tucker Carlson and are upset that we’re not siding with Russia in its threats to invade Ukraine, and who want me to support Russia’s ‘reasonable’ positions.”
Carlson has noticed the changes in how Republicans talk about Russia specifically and foreign intervention in general, but he thinks the party isn’t changing fast enough.
- “I just want to go on the record and say I could care less if they call me a pawn of Putin,” Carlson told Axios. “It’s too stupid. I don’t speak Russian. I’ve never been to Russia. I’m not that interested in Russia. All I care about is the fortunes of the United States because I have four children who live here.”
- “I really hope that Republican primary voters are ruthless about this,” Carlson told Axios, and vote out any Republican “who believes Ukraine’s borders are more important than our borders.”
Now we wait for whatever happens to happen.
And thanks again to Gin & Tonic for his excellent run down earlier in the week to tie you all over until I was able to get this done today.
Open thread!