Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

We are learning that “working class” means “white” for way too many people.

Welcome to day five of every-bit-as-bad-as-you-thought-it-would-be.

Dumb motherfuckers cannot understand a consequence that most 4 year olds have fully sorted out.

One way or another, he’s a liar.

Stamping your little feets and demanding that they see how important you are? Not working anymore.

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

Those who are easily outraged are easily manipulated.

No one could have predicted…

They want us to be overwhelmed and exhausted. Focus. Resist. Oppose.

Republicans: The threats are dire, but my tickets are non-refundable!

Let the trolls come, and then ignore them. that’s the worst thing you can do to a troll.

Give the craziest people you know everything they want and hope they don’t ask for more? Great plan.

Everything is totally normal and fine!!!

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

Trumpflation is an intolerable hardship for every American, and it’s Trump’s fault.

Fear and negativity are contagious, but so is courage!

Shut up, hissy kitty!

Keep the Immigrants and deport the fascists!

75% of people clapping liked the show!

the 10% who apparently lack object permanence

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

Since we are repeating ourselves, let me just say fuck that.

The “burn-it-down” people are good with that until they become part of the kindling.

It’s the corruption, stupid.

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Archives for 2018

PSA: Don’t Check Your Retirement Account

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If you have one, just forget about it for a couple months.

I just spent four hours sorting out my mortgage, which when I went to pay it was 200 bucks more a month, which is a massive increase. Called the company, and there was apparently an escrow shortage. Apparently my taxes DOUBLED and I owed the escrow a ton of money.

Now, as a good liberal, I am all in favor of paying more taxes- IF I OWE THEM. So I called up the assessor, and apparently they had accidentally classified my house as a Class IV, which is “All property situated inside a municipality that is not taxed in Class I or Class II.” Class II is what my property should be, which is “Owner-occupied residential property used exclusively for residential purposes and all farm land used for agricultural purposes by its owner or bona fide tenant.”

That switch doubled my tax and then some. So I called them up, and chatted with them, and stated that if this is not in fact my house, I should probably feel a little bit foolish about sitting in someone else’s house in my underwear. It turns out the good people at the Assessor’s office had put it in Class IV because they had just assumed I was the same John Cole that lived across the alley from me, and that the surly bastard we all know as my dad was actually the owner of both properties. I discussed that we both have middle initials and this should not have happened, they agreed, and I then had my mortgage company talk to the tax people and who knows, at some point in 2020 the paperwork will go through and everything will be fine. By then, I presume, I will have had my loan bought out by a new mortgage company. America- Fuck Yeah.

So, that was four hours I will never get back.

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Shutdown? Shut up! (Open Thread)

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Giant man-baby holds breath, turns blue:

President Trump will not commit to signing legislation that would avoid a partial government shutdown on Saturday, his press secretary said, further roiling a chaotic debate that is splintering the Republican Party.

“At this moment, the President does not want to go further without border security, which includes steel slats or a wall. The President is continuing to weigh his options,” White House press secretary Sarah Sanders said Thursday in a statement.

The tumultuous turn of events has seen Trump reverse himself numerous times in recent days on the issue, first demanding $5 billion from Congress for a wall along the Mexico border, then declaring the military would pay for it, only to insist that the money come from Democrats next year.

Now House Republicans have been summoned to the White House to placate the overgrown toddler. I hope he throws his sippy-cup at Paul Ryan’s head and smears poop on his high chair. That’s the memory Ryan deserves to carry into retirement.

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Open Enrollment wraps up

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The Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) released the final initial count of enrollments for Healthcare.gov’s open enrollment period last night.

HealthCare.gov Platform Snapshot Week 7: Dec 9 – Dec 15 Cumulative:  Nov 1-Dec 15
Plan Selections 4,322,450 8,454,882
New Consumers 918,648 2,025,611
Consumers Renewing Coverage 3,403,802 6,429,271
Consumers on Applications Submitted 4,291,903

 

 10,612,387

Total plans purchased went down by 368,000 before the data gets cleaned up. Assuming this year looks like most other years, I expect to lose a net 50,000-100,000 more enrollments after files are reconciled. Charles Gaba has a very helpful chart that lays out the details year over year:

There are two things to note that I think tell the stories of enrollment. I am speculating wildly with little to no direct evidence but I think I have reasonably well grounded intuition.

The first story is that the renewals went up by a minuscule amount. We know that more people are being exposed to Silver Loaded and Silver Gapped deals due to Cost Sharing Reduction (CSR) subsidies having been terminated and baked into the premium structures. This is not uniform. It was a plus in North Carolina and Iowa but a big minus in Philadelphia and Phoenix.

Pricing for subsidized folks was an enrollment driver:

More states are silver-loading. Colorado and Delaware shifted from a broad-load of CSRs, meaning that CSR costs were incorporated into the premiums for all plans, to a silver load of CSR costs. North Dakota and Vermont are incorporating CSR costs into premiums for the first time. These steps will increase the value proposition for subsidized buyers.

The other story is to look at the new enrollees. This year saw a 15% decline in new enrollees.

I think this is a sign that the repeal of the individual mandate as well as increased focus on expanding eligibility for underwritten plans is working as expected.

I am speculating wildly right now.

I think that once someone shows up on Healthcare.gov, the odds of converting an account creation or even a windowshopping moment into a plan purchase is as high if not higher this year than in past years. The pricing due to CSR termination creates a lot of high value proposition deals. However the odds of someone who is potentially in the individual market for health insurance actually going to Healthcare.gov is lower this year than in prior years.

That is speculation. I think it is reasonable speculation but it is not evidence based (yet).

Overall, given the environment, this is a surprisingly strong end of the open enrollment period enrollment report for Healthcare.gov.

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Bring It (Open Thread)

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The Shitgoblin on Twitter, two hours ago:

The Democrats, who know Steel Slats (Wall) are necessary for Border Security, are putting politics over Country. What they are just beginning to realize is that I will not sign any of their legislation, including infrastructure, unless it has perfect Border Security. U.S.A. WINS!

The Shitgoblin on Twitter, one hour ago:

With so much talk about the Wall, people are losing sight of the great job being done on our Southern Border by Border Patrol, ICE and our great Military. Remember the Caravans? Well, they didn’t get through and none are forming or on their way. Border is tight. Fake News silent!

So, if the Shitgoblin doesn’t get US taxpayer money for the “Steel Slats” that Mexico was supposed to/is paying for, the Shitgoblin will veto popular, job-creating legislation. But oh by the way, diseased brown hordes were repelled and the border is somehow tight without “Steel Slats.”

No sane person expects logical consistency from Trump, but it does seem like the cycle of contradictory lies is accelerating. Pelosi and Schumer probably did a double high-five and then a flying chest bump when they saw the tweet about holding legislation hostage for the vanity wall. Bring it, mofo.

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On the Road and In Your Backyard

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Good Morning All,

On The Road and In Your Backyard is a weekday feature spotlighting reader submissions. From the exotic to the familiar, please share your part of the world, whether you’re traveling or just in your locality. Share some photos and a narrative, let us see through your pictures and words. We’re so lucky each and every day to see and appreciate the world around us!

Submissions from commenters are welcome at tools.balloon-juice.com

Have a wonderful day, and enjoy the pictures!

 

Today, a place still near the top of my bucket list. Just incredible – I mean – wow! Truly a wonder.

 

show full post on front page

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Thursday Morning Open Thread: Look for the Helpers (Literally)

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Feel-good local story from the Washington Post — “A mother’s leap of faith at an African airport, and a 15-year mystery”:

The story of Tom and Maya and Zainab is about trust, about listening to your heart over your mind, and about that gut feeling you have when you meet a good person.

And it’s a story that could’ve gone horribly wrong.

It began in 2003 in the Lungi airport in Sierra Leone, the only international airport in the coastal African country.

Maya Hughes was 5, with two pigtails, a wide smile and a pink Hello Kitty bag. Her mom was looking for someone to get Maya out of the country — fast.

Zainab Sesay was born in Sierra Leone and left when she was 11. Raised in Maryland, she married, worked as a technical writer and thought it would be a great experience to spend some time introducing her daughter Maya to her homeland.

But Sierra Leone was still recovering from a brutal and bloody civil war. The country, the towns were struggling. Her family was struggling.

Maya, who is now 20 and a college student in Chino, Calif., knew none of that then. She recalls her time in Sierra Leone fondly. She was surrounded by cousins and other family. There were clothes washed outside, generators for light, a small bag filled with dirt to create the ball they would use to spend hours playing soccer. She was 5 and delighted and charmed.

But there was a crisis in the family. Maya and Zainab are reluctant to go into detail, but Zainab carefully explained that Maya’s life depended on getting her out of the country quickly and quietly.

So they packed that Hello Kitty bag and — when no one was watching — they headed to the airport.

Zainab began asking ticket agents to point out people traveling to America…

Tom was part of the U.N. war crimes tribunal team that had just indicted Liberian dictator Charles Taylor and at the time, he was working as an adviser to the prosecutor of the Special Court of Sierra Leone.

But he wasn’t at the airport on business. Tom was headed to Charlottesville because his beloved grandmother — the last of his four grandparents still alive — had died. He was heading home for the funeral…

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Open Thread: Polar Bear Down!

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It was windy here today. I was working in my office when this guy blew by. I snagged him and tied him to a tree until his people could reclaim him. He is the size of a car.

I keep looking back at 2018 and cannot believe how many things feel like they happened years ago instead of months. So goes the Trump years…

Anything blow through your world today?

Open thread.

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