Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

People really shouldn’t expect the government to help after they watched the GOP drown it in a bathtub.

Too often we hand the biggest microphones to the cynics and the critics who delight in declaring failure.

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

This fight is for everything.

Make the republican party small enough to drown in a bathtub.

Everybody saw this coming.

Many life forms that would benefit from greater intelligence, sadly, do not have it.

The gop is a fucking disgrace.

The line between political reporting and fan fiction continues to blur.

Only Democrats have agency, apparently.

I’m starting to think Jesus may have made a mistake saving people with no questions asked.

… pundit janitors mopping up after the gop

Let me file that under fuck it.

Michigan is a great lesson for Dems everywhere: when you have power…use it!

Joe Biden can go out like FDR, not by dying in office, but by crushing the fascists.

Thanks to your bullshit, we are now under siege.

Nothing says ‘pro-life’ like letting children go hungry.

The most dangerous place for a black man in America is in a white man’s imagination.

They’re not red states to be hated; they are voter suppression states to be fixed.

Can we lighten up on the doomsday scenarios?

Stop using mental illness to avoid talking about armed white supremacy.

An unpunished coup is a training exercise.

A lot of Dems talk about what the media tells them to talk about. Not helpful.

It’s a new day. Light all those Biden polls of young people on fire and throw away the ashes.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 541: (Some of) You Have Questions, I (May) Have Answers

War for Ukraine Day 541: (Some of) You Have Questions, I (May) Have Answers

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Last night in comments, Dr. Jackyll and Ms. Deride asked:

I usually stay out of these threads because I have no expertise on any relevant topic, but one thing that comes up over and over has been nagging at me.

You have said repeatedly and forcefully that we ought to take “Never again” seriously, which would mean trying to stop genocides in the making and punishing their perpetrators.  What would it look like, as a matter of foreign and military policy, if we (U.S. and allies) actually did that?  As to Ukraine, I can’t think of anything that would help much short of treating Ukraine as a de facto member of NATO entitled to the full benefits of Article 5.  As to the rest of the world, I can’t even begin to imagine how it would work.

Genocide is a relatively new word, but what it describes is as old as recorded history.  Many past wars, both religious and secular, were genocidal in purpose and intent, and if they failed to achieve actual genocide it was usually only for lack of means.  Today, because advances in communications and technology have allowed us to see “everything everywhere all at once,” it feels as if there’s more genocide going on than ever before, but that’s probably an illusion.  That perception also makes it easy for us to think the problem of stopping genocide is insoluble and just give up trying.

Obviously, I have no suggestions what to do about any of this.  If you thought anyone in power were inclined to take “Never again” as seriously as you do, what practical steps would you propose that they take?

This is an excellent question. I think we can break the answer down into two categories. Things we can and should be doing that are non-kinetic and non-lethal that demonstrates why engaging in a genocide would be a bad idea. This basically would fit into concepts of deterrence. For instance, had we pre-positioned a V Corps, 1st Armored Division plussed up with several additional brigade combat teams (BCTS), moved US Navy and Marine floats into key strategic locations, repositioned strategic aviation assets, and began moving the US defense manufacturing, as well as that of our NATO allies, onto a war footing we might have deterred this nightmare. Similarly, if we began ramping up the training – such as for the F-16s – last summer, that option would be coming online now, rather than being estimated as coming online in late spring/early summer 2024. By not rapidly moving to increase our and our allies ability to supply the Ukrainians and get them training that will take months to a year, we have not provided them with what they need right now to stop the genocide. This is all short of putting our own personnel in theater to fight alongside the Ukrainians. Especially as all the reporting from January and February 2022 made it clear that the US had known for months that the re-invasion was coming. We wasted important time. We are still wasting it. And this is before we get to the really crucial part of the questions, which is the one that leads to kinetic response. If genocide is, indeed, so far outside the norms, if it is the type of extraordinary activity that requires an extraordinary response, then if we are never going to ever consider actually directly intervening, then we need to just own up to the fact that we don’t mean it, we’re not going to actually do anything to stop them, and stop using the expression.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

We are preparing powerful things to strengthen our state, our warriors – address of President of Ukraine

18 August 2023 – 21:35

Dear Ukrainians, I wish you good health!

Today is Friday, but it’s such a week that it’s too early to sum up the working days.

We are preparing powerful things for Ukraine, strengthening our state, our warriors.

Today and this week in general, it is the main task. Weapons for our warriors. New opportunities for our defense. New support packages from our partners.

We are doing everything so that on the eve of the Independence Day of our country, it can be said that Ukraine has taken another step towards the circle of the strongest states in the world.

Our team is currently working particularly intensively.

You will see the news for Ukraine. We prepare them with our neighbors in the EU. And also in those regions of Europe where our cooperation with the states has not yet been sufficient. And, of course, with our European partners, with whom we have already proved more than once that European leadership in defending freedom is of global importance.

By the way, we have already had important diplomatic successes this week.

The G7 Declaration on security guarantees for Ukraine: as of today, 18 states have joined.

The Peace Formula: already 63 diplomatic missions are working to implement the points of the Formula. It is crucial that the Peace Formula gradually unites the world majority based on our respect for international law and the UN Charter.

The European Union: we are trying our best to make Ukraine ready for the opening of membership negotiations this year.

Today, the day started with a meaningful conference call. As always, the front is the first question. Military reports. The situation is on the front line. Reports of government officials regarding the supply of weapons and ammunition. The report of the Security Service of Ukraine regarding military commissioners and collaborators… Separately, I listened to the report of the Border Guard Service, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, intelligence regarding the attitude towards our citizens – immigrants who are in different countries, and regarding visa regimes. The things that citizens of Ukraine actually face in the visa issue.

Managers in charge of these issues received appropriate tasks. The rights of Ukrainian citizens must be guaranteed.

And one more. Next week is the time of important events for Ukraine. We will not lose a single day of preparation. We will not miss any result for Ukraine. We work every day. Every day we add strength to Ukraine. And I thank everyone who does the same! For Ukraine – only strength!

Glory to all our warriors! Glory to everyone who works for victory! For the sake of freedom and independence!

Glory to Ukraine!

Just a note, I have seen people speculating elsewhere that the US and our allies and partners have engaged in a bit of maskirovka of our own. That we set up a secret F-16 training program for the Ukrainians and, as a result, the F-16s are going to arrive in short order and be set to purpose against the Russian re-invaders. Some of this is referencing reporting about two Ukrainian pilots who had done some familiarization training on the F-16s back in Spring 2023 to assess what the actual training would need to look like.

Two Ukrainian pilots are in the U.S. undergoing an assessment to determine how long it could take to train them to fly attack aircraft, including F-16 fighter jets, according to two congressional officials and a senior U.S. official.

The Ukrainians’ skills are being evaluated on simulators at a U.S. military base in Tucson, Arizona, the officials said, and they may soon be joined by more of their fellow pilots.

U.S. authorities have approved bringing up to 10 more Ukrainian pilots to the U.S. for further assessment as early as this month, the officials said.

Their arrival marks the first time Ukrainian pilots have traveled to the U.S. to have their skills evaluated by American military trainers. Officials said the effort has twin goals: to improve the pilots’ skills and to evaluate how long a proper training program could take.

“The program is about assessing their abilities as pilots so we can better advise them on how to use capabilities they have and we have given them,” an administration official said.

Two administration officials stressed that it wasn’t a training program and said that the Ukrainians would not be flying any aircraft during their time here.

So when you see Ukrainian social media posts like this:

And this:

Please keep in mind what we’ve been discussing: 1) the actual training program has not been developed; 2) a training site has not been established; 3) the Ukrainian pilots and crews are just being selected for English language training, which is necessary because everything on the F-16 is in English; 4) the US permission for transfer only came this week; and 5) all we have is an agreement among our NATO allies to build a training site, develop and deliver a curriculum, and that once that’s done, the US will allow F-16s to be transferred to Ukraine.

I wish this wasn’t the actual reality, but until or unless someone can produce actual evidence that we’ve been running a secret F-16 training program, this is what we’re dealing with. Unfortunately, extraordinary truth claims require extraordinary evidence.

Yeesh, this guy:

You’re people are leaking doom and gloom to reporters and this is the best you can do? Especially in light of these new anonymous US official statements today:

In recent weeks, Ukraine has shifted its battlefield tactics, returning to its old ways of wearing down Russian forces with artillery and long-range missiles instead of plunging into minefields under fire.

American officials are worried that Ukraine’s adjustments will race through precious ammunition supplies, which could benefit President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and disadvantage Ukraine in a war of attrition. But Ukrainian commanders decided the pivot reduced casualties and preserved their frontline fighting force.

American officials say they fear that Ukraine has become casualty averse, one reason it has been cautious about pressing ahead with the counteroffensive. Almost any big push against dug-in Russian defenders protected by minefields would result in huge numbers of losses.

And we’re back to me ranting! The US has dribbled out the necessary material. The US refused, out of fear, to do anything more than that. And now anonymous US officials are complaining that 1) the Ukrainians are not going to achieve their objectives; 2) the Ukrainians need to speed things up because if they don’t it might negatively effect future support; and now 3) the Ukrainians are risk averse.

And the best you can fucking do is say “I’m not going to comment.”

I realize that this is the alternative, which I also ranted about last night:

But the range of our potential national security responses has to be better than “everyone else is on their own because we like authoritarian leaders now” on the GOP side and what the Biden administration is doing. Yes, I’m glad the latter are doing what they’re doing and we’re not watching how a GOP administration would screw this up so badly that Putin would not only have Ukraine by now, but also the Baltics and Alaska. But if we either cannot or will not actually do better than we’re doing – and, yes and again, we could be doing much worse – than we can at least do better at our strategic communication!

This is how you do better strategic communication:

And here’s Tatarigami’s, a Ukrainian Army Reserve officer, take on the WaPo reporting that Ukraine will fail to achieve its objectives in the Summer/Fall 2023 campaign:

I’ve received inquiries from multiple people requesting my opinion on the recent WAPO article titled “U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive’s key goal.”

The reality is, I can’t comment on it, as evaluating the true attritional rate is exceedingly complex. Moreover, even if we were to possess accurate and comprehensive loss data (which neither side has), making a precise prediction about the outcome remains elusive due to the numerous unknown variables in the equation.

I understand that my answer might be unsatisfactory for many.
On a different note, I’d like to share that I’m currently in the process of crafting multi-part threads about Lancet’s. Hopefully I will be able to release those this week.

Enerhodar:

Nova Kakhovka:

Novorossiysk:

Moscow:

– Why did the drone return to ‘Moscow City’ once again?

– It’s a special operation – expect the unexpected. You see, ‘Moscow City’ serves as a prominent landmark due to its tall and stationary structures. Such locations are more accessible targets for these drones,” explained Colonel-General Kartopolov

That’s enough for tonight.

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Reader Interactions

49Comments

  1. 1.

    Anonymous At Work

    Pfarrer reporting UA airstrikes on Russian-occupied territory.  Does this mean that UA is confident in their destruction of AAA batteries and such?

  2. 2.

    Alison Rose

    CASUALTY AVERSE? What in the serpentine fuck is that supposed to mean? Are they supposed to *want* to die? Are they supposed to go skipping into minefields yelling YOLO at the camera? Christ in a cornfield.

    Especially as all the reporting from January and February 2022 made it clear that the US had known for months that the re-invasion was coming.

    Yeah, see. I was bothered last year when Biden was giving remarks and felt the need to be like “Zelenskyy wouldn’t listen to us” as though that was important to talk about at that point. But even if he didn’t, what the hell were WE doing at that time other than just texting him like “sup bro, looks like some shit gonna go down, hope ur good” and then tossing our phones into the lake? I get that we can’t force another country to do what we want (or…well…we sometimes choose not to force certain countries to do what we want), and obviously I don’t know everything that was said and done, but as you say, it’s clear there were things that could have been put into place far earlier, but we didn’t. Sigh. And now Ukraine has to deal with people getting ornery about the counteroffensive not being a massive bulldoze.

    I don’t know. Here is a video of a soldier feeding an acorn to a squirrel.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  3. 3.

    japa21

    American officials say they fear that Ukraine has become casualty averse, one reason it has been cautious about pressing ahead with the counteroffensive. Almost any big push against dug-in Russian defenders protected by minefields would result in huge numbers of losses.

    This type of reporting pisses me off. I want to know the exact words used by the “American official” that shows we fear they have become casualty averse. Specially since the US, itself, is casualty averse, which is why so much of our equipment is made so the the personnel has a chance to survive, even if the equipment doesn’t. And even if we believe they are more cautious so as to avoid casualties, why would we fear that. Something doesn’t ring true here.

    There was also some news that the Ukrainians have made some advances toward Tokmak as reported by CBS.

    The reality is, we don’t and won’t know a lot for a while. But I am optimistic. Also, the counter offensive in the south can continue longer than anything up north due to better weather conditions.

  4. 4.

    japa21

    @Alison Rose: The problem for Biden was that even other European leaders weren’t paying much attention to what he was saying.  And trying to increase, based upon intelligence reports, much of our production would never have flown past Congress.  And, since even the Pentagon, our intelligence agencies and most of the European ones were figuring it would be a 3 day to 3 week victory for Russia, why bother.

    And, as I mentioned above, I don’t trust the reporting that says we “fear they have become casualty averse”.

  5. 5.

    wjca

    That fire at Novorossiysk looks like serious trouble.  Of course, it might just be the result of more Russian incompetence and/or graft coming home to roost.  But if it actually was a result of Ukrainian action, the implications for Russia’s whole Black Sea fleet are dire.

  6. 6.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @japa21: ​
      Why wouldn’t you trust things from anonymous sources? I am sure “American official” was paraphrased accurately. Right?

  7. 7.

    Sally

    Is it an irony that the most risk averse US offical(s) is complaining about someone else being risk averse?

  8. 8.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Alison Rose:

    Seconded. I’m good with ‘casualty averse.’ What it means is that the lives of its soldiers matter to Ukrainians, including Zelenskyy and his generals.  That’s the way it should be.

    Meanwhile, if anyone in Russia gives a damn about the lives of its soldiers, outside their immediate families (and clearly sometimes not even then), it sure isn’t showing up anywhere.

    And that’s one of many reasons why Ukraine is clearly the Good Guys in this war, and Russia’s the Bad Guys.

    And that’s without mentioning that Ukraine is a nation of 40 million people, and Russia is a nation of 140 million people.  Ukraine can’t just trade lives one-for-one, even if it didn’t value the lives of its soldiers in the least.  They don’t have an infinite supply of troops for this war.  They have to be ‘casualty averse.’

    And on a related note, I’m tired of hearing from our Administration that ‘we will support Ukraine for as long as it takes’ without its being accompanied by ‘and here’s what we’re giving to Ukraine to shorten this war as much as possible.’

    Every damn day, more Ukrainian soldiers get killed in battle, and more Ukrainian civilians get killed by the indiscriminate attacks – war crimes, every one, dammit! – on homes and shops and schools and hospitals and all the rest.  What our nation needs to do is give Ukraine the tools to kick Russia out of Ukraine and end this carnage as quickly as possible.

    Great news about the F-16s, but it would have been greater news if the pilots and crews could have been trained in time to provide air cover during this year’s counteroffensive.

  9. 9.

    Bill Arnold

    @japa21:

    This type of reporting pisses me off. I want to know the exact words used by the “American official” that shows we fear they have become casualty averse

    A good rule of thumb is that strong emotional reactions to phrasing are the intended result.
    Whoever in that reporting chain used the phrase “casualty averse” was (mandatory “probably”) intentionally trying to provoke an emotional reaction. Motives (or actor(s)) not disclosed..

  11. 11.

    Mike in NC

    I don’t think any of the Munchkins running for the GQP nomination have given a nanosecond’s thought about Russia and Ukraine. It appears they’re all busy eating corn dogs in Iowa and making noises about invading Mexico to wipe out the drug cartels. Invading Mexico in the 1840s was nothing but a land grab, and the attacks on Mexico in 1914 (Vera Cruz) and 1916 (Pancho Villa punitive expedition) were less than resounding successes.

    Fat Bastard had his own genius idea to fire a bunch of Patriot missiles (ground-to-air, but no matter) into Mexico and nobody would be any wiser about where they came from. He also came up on his own plan for bombing Russia with our planes cleverly painted to look like they were Chinese. An unappreciated military mastermind.

  12. 12.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Anonymous At Work: Could be drone attacks. Or Ukraine took down an S300 battery, creating a gap in Russian AD, & took advantage before the the Russians closed the gap by repositioning another battery. We know the Ukrainian Air Force has had successes before taking out Russian medium & long range AD, but they don’t have enough airframes & HARM missiles to really sustain a SEAD campaign.

    Any air strikes are likely done w/ stand off munitions from well outside of the range of AAAs & short range SAMs. These often operate on electro-optical & IR sensors, so are impossible to suppress. You need to take out the enemy AF & medium to long range SAM to achieve air dominance, then you can search for & destroy short range AD assets at leisure, & fly high enough to stay outside the range of MANPADS.

  13. 13.

    BeautifulPlumage

    I had read that the fire in Novorossiysk was at the naval fuel depot, which would be nice if true.

  14. 14.

    NutmegAgain

    One term really stands out to me, admittedly a non-military-knowing type person. That is “casualty-averse”. “Casualty-averse“?  WTF ?!? First off, the opposite of that attitude would be what we see with the Russians, that is, not caring about their people, throwing them into vulnerable positions with inadequate or none of training, working equipment, responsible leadership and so on. And secondly, isn’t it just basic common sense that you try and train, lead, equip, etc your forces in order to reduce casualties, yes, but just to gain advantage as much as you can in addition to firing exploding things from great distances. Of course, the general lack of support to Ukraine in air fighting equipment is glaring. Me being pissed off isn’t really the point–it’s just such an obvious deficit, even to as I say a non-military person like me. I hope this makes some kind of sense. And I also hope somebody, somewhere takes a moment to (virtually) smack around the idiot who employed the concept of casualty-adverse as a flaw.

  15. 15.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Ramaswamy so far has the most kooky foreign policy ideas in the GOP field, but he does not actually stick out like a sore thumb in terms of kookiness. He has suggested that the U.S. only needs to protect TW until 2028, when the U.S. is to have successfully diversified the sourcing of advanced semiconductors away from TW. This is wrong on so many levels: TW will still produce the bulk of the world’s most advanced semiconductors even in 2028, the cynical plan would make it more tempting to the PRC to invade after 2028, or force TW to make an accommodating w/ the PRC before 2028 on terms that it does not want.

    Van Jackson has a great article that summarizes  Ramaswamy’s foreign policy vision the worst kind of militarist & extractive empire w/o any pretense at order/stability maintenance, under the guise of “restraint”.

    One of Ron DeSantis’ top foreign policy advisors is Mike Gallagher, who is auditioning to be the reincarnation of McCarthy w/ his House committee on the CCP, & Eldridge Colby. Colby’s foreign policy vision is naked U.S. primacy w/ a singular focus on China (as the closest challenger), doing everything possible to prepare for war w/ China, in the name of deterring such a war. He thinks that Ukraine is a distraction from this overriding enterprise, & that TW is merely a U.S. asset in this enterprise, which is also why he has proposed sanctioning TW to coerce it into spend more on its military than it has so far been willing. Naked empire w/o pretense, which makes Colby & Ramaswamy compadres. Mike Black (former USAF officer) has repeatedly unloaded on Colby on Twitter, very entertaining reads.

    Nikkey Haley has been ranting about CCP agents buying up American farmlands, & throwing the CCP regime into “the dust bin of history”. Really seems eager to usher in Rapture.

    Trump is… Trump.

  18. 18.

    Gin & Tonic

    If Adm Tony Radakin is going to publicly pat himself on the back for visiting with Gen Zaluzhny, he should take the time to spell Z’s surname correctly.

  19. 19.

    oldster

    Reading your post, Adam, I was getting ready to write an enraged, outraged comment about any arm-chair advisor using the word “casualty-averse” about a brave nation fighting and dying while attacked by a horde of barbarians four times its size.

    But I now see that Alison Rose and others have said what I would have said, and done it better. So I’ll just say:

    Slava Ukraini, Slava Heroyam.

  22. 22.

    wjca

    “fund Hawaii, not Ukraine”

    Since Hawai’i is solidly Democratic, not to mention being easily our least WASPy state (<30% white per 2020 census), expect any actual funding for Hawai’i to be quietly shelved as soon as it ceases to be a useful pro-Putin talking point.

  23. 23.

    oldster

    On the “Ukraine War Video” Reddit there are several clips of soldiers of other nations who have been training Ukrainian soldiers and are now sending them back to the front lines. Here’s one:

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/YYWcdr_rSi8

    Why are these Brits and Canadians showing the utmost respect to the soldiers they have been training? Because they know that many of them will die soon, and many more will be horribly wounded. Because they know that this is not a game, and not an exercise. Because they know that they get to stay in England and in Canada only because their own countries are “casualty-averse”.

    Whoever that US spokesman was, I just want to tell him : show some respect. When you are sending men and women off to fight and die, show some respect.

  25. 25.

    Mr. Bemused Senior

    @NutmegAgain: And I also hope somebody, somewhere takes a moment to (virtually) smack around the idiot who employed the concept of casualty-adverse as a flaw.

    +1!
    There was an article in the WaPo months [a year plus? gah] ago contrasting tank designs (U.S. vs. Russian) and of course the Russian tanks sacrifice crew safety. Just one small example but it really struck me.

    Adam, usually I have little to add to your threads. Let me just say thank you.

  30. 30.

    Geminid

    On the diplomatic front, reports are that Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan will visit Kyiv a week from today, August 25, to discuss the war and Black Sea grain shipments. This will be Fidan’s first trip to Ukraine as Foreign Minister, but I think he’s visited before in his capacity as head of M.I.T., the Turkish intelligence agency.

    I guess this visit will precede Putin’s visit to Turkiye. President Erdogan announced that visit 6 weeks ago, during his joint press conference with President Zelenskyy in Istanbul. Russian officials have since said that Putin’s visit is on, but no date has been given. Erdogan met with Putin twice last summer, but has not since then.

  32. 32.

    Alison Rose

    @Maxim: I’ve been building a mental list of “Christ in/on a [thing starting with C]” and “Jesus in/on a [thing starting with J]”. It’s not blasphemy because I’m Jewish. Plus, Jesus probably had a sense of humor.

  33. 33.

    Geminid

    @YY_Sima Qian: That is Erdogan’s Plan A, to induce Putin to resume the deal. This may be why the timing of the visit is still up in the air. Russia has less leverage over Turkiye than a year ago, and Turkiye has more, so maybe Putin will go along with Erdogan’s Plan A.

    Erdogan probably has a Plan B, but he’s not saying. He may have told his Foreign Minister; Erdogan has called Fidan “my keeper of secrets,” and he’s not telling either. I will be following reports on Fidan’s meeting with Ukrainian officials next week in case there are clues.

  35. 35.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Geminid: I have always been a fan of the old army expression “since Christ was a corporal.”  As in “Well, LT, we’ve been doing it that way since Christ was a corporal.”

  36. 36.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Geminid: Erdogan’s Plan B is Turkish escorts of ships to & from Odesa? Since Putin’s interest is facilitating the export of Russian grains, Erdogan implementing Plan B is essentially calling Putin’s bluff. Putin can continue to strike Ukrainian granaries, though, but I think there is/will be increasing pressure from the “Straddlers” on Putin to return to a deal.

  37. 37.

    Geminid

    @YY_Sima Qian: When Russia suspended the Grain Initative early last November, Turkiye appeared to back them down. A Turkish official announced that a convoy would sail from Odesa (I think it was already under way). Then Erdogan told reporters that the continuation of the Initiative was a “vital national interest” of Turkiye, and then his Defense Minister said the same. Russia rejoined the deal with some grumbling.

    This time, Russia gave plenty of notice that it would not renew the deal, and Erdogan chose to try to reopen the deal through diplomatic means. He’s even backed Russia’s demand that supposed impediments to Russian grain and fertilizer exports be removed.

    What I want to see is a line of frigates from Turkiye’s Aegean fleet steaming past Istanbul on their way to escort grain ships in the Black Sea, with crowds of cheering citizens along the shore waving Turkish flags and brandishing brooms. But I think Putin will reenter the deal first.

    Still, it will be a good time to follow Istanbul ship-spotting news sites. Observers there monitor maritime traffic very closely.

  38. 38.

    wjca

    @Geminid:

    Erdogan chose to try to reopen the deal through diplomatic means. He’s even backed Russia’s demand that supposed impediments to Russian grain and fertilizer exports be removed.

    But I think Putin will reenter the deal.

    Erdogan really has Putin in a corner.  If Putin irritates him, Russian exports could be not just impeded but flat out blocked.  And if the Turkish fleet decided to escort ships to Odessa, the Russian Black Sea fleet could stand back or be sunk.

  39. 39.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Who the hell is the U.S. official leaking to Politico, and what the f*ck is w/ Politico’s framing?!

    There will only be negotiations when at least one of the sides is completely exhausted & assesses that it has no chance of achieving its objectives on the battlefield. Conditions did not exists for negotiations last Nov. & do not exist now, Ukraine wants to retake its lost territories & Putin wants to hold on to his gains.

    Had negotiations been attempted last Nov., it would have had to occur over the heads of the Ukrainians, & despite the embarrassments at Kharkiv & Kherson Putin would have insisted on holding on to the lands he still occupied. Attempting negotiations now would also need to  go over Ukrainian heads, & Putin would still insist on retaining the conquered territories & keeping Ukraine out of the EU & NATO. After all, talking about negotiations would confirm to Putin that the Russian defenses has held against the best shot from Ukraine & NATO. Why would he budge on anything?

    How about helping Ukraine to recapture Melitopol 1st, cut the land ridge to Crimea, & drop the Kerch Bridge for good? Then Putin might feel pressured to come to the table. & would NATO really induct a Ukraine that has so much territory occupied by a nuclear power, which Ukraine will continue to contest?

    Perhaps the “US official” is a one of the many reactionaries planted in the natsec state during the Trump years, not yet rooted out by the Biden Administration, trying to shape the media environment & public opinion toward extricating the U.S. from Ukraine so that it can focus entirely on fighting a war w/ China. That seems to be the foreign policy consensus among the GOP part of the “Blob”.

  41. 41.

    Geminid

    @wjca: Turkiye is very scrupulous about their role under the Montreux Treaty,* and aside from blocking Russia’s warships they have not impeded Russian shipping through the Turkish straits, even ships carrying armaments and supplies to Russian forces in Syria where the two nations are at odds. Interestingly, the tanker  disabled a few days ago by a Uktrainian sea drone was carrying fuel destined for Russian forces in Syria. That was the last (for now) of many such voyages for the tanker.

    But Turkiye is entitled under the treaty to stop all shipping from a country if they are at war with them. Erdogan does not want a war with Russia, but he is a very stubborn man, which is why I think Russia will return to the Grain Initiative, perhaps with concessions from the UN regarding its grain and fertilizer shipments.

    * Turks regard the Montreux Treaty as a cornerstone of their sovereignity and one of Kemal Ataturk’s greatest accomplishments. It was signed in 1936 I believe, and that would have been 14 years after Turkiye won its War of Independence.

    In 1922, the Turkish national army had to expel the British from Istanbul and the Turkish Straits. Mustapha Kemal had just crushed the 120,000 man Greek Army that had unwisely pushed to within 50 kilometers of of Ankara, so he was able to eject the British army from the Straits and another Greek army from eastern Thrace without further fighting. This lead to the end of Lloyd George’s Prime Ministry, because he (and Churchill of course)** had advocated for an effort to hang on to the Straights.

    ** I saw a meme on Turkish Twitter about this. It had two sets of pictures of a frowning Churchill and a smiling Kemal. In the first Churchill asks,  “Pasha, how long can my troops hold out against your army,” and Kemal says “10.” So Churchill asks, “What is ’10?’ ” and Kemal answers “9” like he’s counting down.

  42. 42.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Excellent Twitter thread by Justin Bronk on the logistical difficulties w/ positioning the Ukrainian Air Force to be able to use any F-16s effectively:

    A thread on the US approval for #F16 transfer to #Ukraine once pilot training is complete: This US decision is important as it clears one of the obstacles to delivery from European operators – US authorisation as the original manufacturer. Several issues remain, however: (1/10)

    …

    There are always complications, all the more reason to start the process as early as possible.

  43. 43.

    Torrey

    @dr. luba: ​
     
    Thank you for this link! The entire “Read Ukrainian” course at that link looks like an excellent resource. (I have just discovered that my university has a course in Ukrainian, so I’m going to give it a shot–that is, if my request for non-degree-seeking enrollment goes through.)

  44. 44.

    Geminid

    @YY_Sima Qian: Bronk makes a key point about funding. Depending on how much Congress will authorize in a new spending bill, money for the F-16s may not be there if the US is to continue providing other battlefield weaponry including air defence systems, Bradley IFVs, 155 mm artilerty shells, etc.

    This puts more pressure on Ukraine to achieve substantial success in its summer offensive. Political opinion in this country will be adversely affected if the war seems stalemated. And even though European nations have a bigger stake in this war than does the US, their commitments will likely start to lag if the US’s does.

  45. 45.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Article from the Drive on the time it will take for any Ukrainian F-16s to make a difference on the battlefield:

    Ukrainian F-16 Combat Proficiency At Scale Not Likely Before 2027, Air Force General Says
    Training demands mean Ukraine won’t get F-16s until next year at the earliest and substantial combat proficiency will take much longer.

    It seems the greenest Ukrainian trainees are being selected to be trained on the Fighting Falcons, starting from propeller trainers after English instruction! I guess anyone more experienced are too valuable to be taken from the battlefield.

  46. 46.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Geminid: Probably what Putin is hoping for, & makes me more concerned that some elements in the natsec state are in fact trying to engineer exactly such an outcome w/ their leaks to the press, whatever their motivations (symping for Putin, disengaging from what they believe to be a distraction in Ukraine, reorienting toward what they believe to be an inevitable war w/ China, war w/ China to bring in Rapture, whatever).

  47. 47.

    wjca

    @Geminid:

    Turkiye is very scrupulous about their role under the Montreux Treaty,* and aside from blocking Russia’s warships they have not impeded Russian shipping through the Turkish straits, even ships carrying armaments and supplies to Russian forces in Syria where the two nations are at odds.

    I agree that Erdogan probably wouldn’t shut Russian trade down.  But since Putin doesn’t much care about treaties he may have signed (see the security guarantees for Ukraine), he has to worry that Erdogan feels the same way.  After all, Ataturk also was very strong on a secular republic, but Erdogan has embraced Islamists (admittedly in order to weaken the Kurds) and his devotion to democracy is notional.

  48. 48.

    Geminid

    @wjca: If Edogan embraced Islamist policies, it was not to help suppress the Kurds. The secular parties that ruled Turkiye before Erdogan’s AKP party came to power in 2003 were every bit if not more repressive of Turkiye’s Kurdish population than Erdogan. In fact, the first 12 years of AKP rule were marked by substantial improvements for Kurdish rights.

    Two events changed that in 2015. One was the breakdown in peace talks and a ceasefire with the PKK. The other was the AKP’s failure to secure a majority in the National Assembly. That resulted in an alliance with the ultra-nationalist MHP.

    The results of May’s elections showed rising strength among nationalist parties that view concessions to Kurdish interests as anathema. Even opposition candidate Kilicdaroglu excluded the pro-Kurdish CHP from his “Table of Six” coalition. A couple of the six parties threatened to bolt the coalition if the CHP were added.

    So that is to say, Erdogan’s current attitude towards the Kurds is shared by most of the opposition parties that reject his “Islamism,” such as it is.

  49. 49.

    TomB5

    Adam I read with interest you explanation of genocidal deterrence. I realize this is terribly cynical but what if Adminisration policy is to bleed the Russians indefinitely? The type of mobilization you suggested might not be possible in a country as divided as ours but denuding Russia of offensive capabilities in non nuclear war might be. I have no expertise in this area just the view of a cynic albeit one who loves his country.

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