Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

“When somebody takes the time to draw up a playbook, they’re gonna use it.”

Conservatism: there are people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

Everyone is in a bubble, but some bubbles model reality far better than others!

Hot air and ill-informed banter

Imperialist aggressors must be defeated, or the whole world loses.

They love authoritarianism, but only when they get to be the authoritarians.

“The defense has a certain level of trust in defendant that the government does not.”

How any woman could possibly vote for this smug smarmy piece of misogynistic crap is beyond understanding.

In after Baud. Damn.

Republicans want to make it harder to vote and easier for them to cheat.

Days Since JD Vance Insulted Women Across America: Zero

It’s a new day. Light all those Biden polls of young people on fire and throw away the ashes.

Their boy Ron is an empty plastic cup that will never know pudding.

Republicans: The threats are dire, but my tickets are non-refundable!

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

People really shouldn’t expect the government to help after they watched the GOP drown it in a bathtub.

If senate republicans had any shame, they’d die of it.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

Nikki Haley, who can’t acknowledge ‘slavery’, is a pathetic shill.

My years-long effort to drive family and friends away has really paid off this year.

Of course you can have champagne before noon. That’s why orange juice was invented.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

It’s easier to kill a dangerous animal than a man who just happens to have different thoughts/values than one’s own.

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / The Israel-Hamas War Update: 15 October 2023

The Israel-Hamas War Update: 15 October 2023

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Sorry this is long overdue, but it’s been quite the week and weekend. All very positive for me, but it has chewed up a lot of time and I have at least two more very hectic ones ahead of me. But I do want to get a quick update in and touch on a couple of items.

The first is a reiteration of what I started last night’s Ukraine war update with:

First, there are no winners among the Palestinians from Hamas’s attack last Saturday, nor will there be any winners among Israelis from Israel’s response. I’ll get into this more tomorrow, but for all intents and purposes Hamas’s attack was a PSYACT. A PSYACT is a form of psychological operation often using a physical real world activity intended to produce a real world result or elicit a specific real world response. If you remember back to my post after the 2015 ISIS attack on St. Michael outside Paris, the intention of the attack wasn’t just to kill and main and injure and terrify a lot of people. Rather it was to make the French and their western allies overreact in their response creating a French versus Muslims and Islam response. At the same time it was intended to force French Muslims to choose between being French or being Muslim. To collapse the civic space and force them to pick a side. Hamas’s attack was similarly intended even if the initial and most visible effects were the killing and the hostage taking. And this is part of the reason that there will be no actual Palestinian or Israeli winners regardless how this ultimately resolves.

Second, we need to make sure we do not conflate all Israelis with the Netanyahu governments that have run the country for 13 of the last 15 years, just as we must do the same thing in separating the Gazans from Hamas. Remember, back in 2010 Bibi stole the premiership. Likud came in 2nd in those elections. However, while Tzipi Livni, whose party had the largest number of members of Knesset elected, was assembling her coalition, Bibi simply ignored Israeli law, assembled his own, declared a government, and dared anyone to stop him or reverse his action. No one did. From there the opposition kept splintering while Bibi enabled and empowered ever more extreme elements to form coalition governments from what was often the barest of majorities all while running caretaker governments when they splintered and fell apart. At the same time, because of a stupid decision by the Bush 43 administration convinced that elections equal democracy, enabled by Bibi who wanted to build up Hamas as a foil to Fatah and the Palestine Authority in order to prevent a 2 state peace process from ever being implemented, Hamas won the only election in Gaza in 2006. There has never been another election. And yes, technically both Israelis and Palestinians could’ve revolted and overthrown Bibi or Hamas respectively. But actually doing it is a lot harder said than done.

Third, we need to make sure not to conflate Jews and Israelis and Judaism with Zionism, as well as Palestinians with Hamas and Hamas with Islam. These are not interchangeable concepts. Do not make them so.

So let’s jump right in. Last night I referenced that Hamas’s attack was a PSYACT, which is defined in Army Field Manual (FM) 3-05.30 / Marine Corps reference Publication (MCRP) 3-40.6, Psychological Operations as:

a psychological operations action (PSYACT) as “an action conducted by non-PSYOP personnel, that is planned primarily to affect the behavior of a TA [target audience].”

In this case Hamas attacked, killed, and took hostage/prisoner significant numbers of Israelis. The attackers were not PSYOPers. The behavior that Hamas wished to illicit from the Israelis was to create such an overwhelming sense of fear, terror, anger, and grief that Israel’s government – Bibi’s coalition – would respond in such an indiscriminate manner that credible accusations of violations of international humanitarian law (IHL), war crimes, and crimes against humanity could be leveled against the Israelis.

Let’s define a few terms here. International humanitarian law here refers to the requirement that Israel manage their response in order to reduce and mitigate harm to the civilian population of Gaza. Here’s the link to the International Red Cross’s NOV 2021 handbook on how to do this in regard to an urban population. And you don’t get a much more urban population than the 2 million or so Palestinians in the Gaza strip. From the handbook:

This handbook guides us through the main applicable frameworks of international humanitarian law (IHL) in urban settings and assembles recommendations for commanders around topics as:

  • Urban warfare doctrine, highlighting the protection of civilians as a key element of urban operations, while weighting alongside mission accomplishments and force protection within the limits of the laws of armed conflict (LOAC);
  • Specific and realistic urban warfare training prior to operations, including the emphasis on practical application of LOAC by junior commanders;
  • Planning of urban operations that considers human terrain and infrastructure in detail, not only as they might impact the battle but in terms of the impact of the fighting on them as well – including the priority of options to avoid and, or, mitigate civilian harm;
  • Conduct whilst always operating within LOAC obligations, meaning commanders should favor means and methods which first avoid and, if not possible, mitigate civilian harm;
  • Finally, the handbook also addresses partnered operations, and annexes to assist in the planning of evacuations and screenings of those people leaving an urban area.

They also produced an AUG 2023 handbook for armed resistance groups in urban environments, in case you’re curious what Hamas’s responsibilities might be:

Based on engagement with armed groups around the world and extensive analysis of their practice, the handbook focuses on practical measures in doctrine, training, equipment, planning and conduct of hostilities that mitigate civilian harm in urban warfare, in accordance with international humanitarian law (IHL) and other relevant norms.

Recommendations cover command responsibilities and operational guidance, the collection of accurate information, consideration of the civilian environment in planning of an attack, how to conduct a lawful urban operation, as well as activities and behaviors to adopt once the hostilities have ended and best training practices in IHL education, tactics, weapon handling and equipment.

The handbook also spells out the responsibilities of commanders, fighters and those supporting them, their legal obligation and the benefits to comply with IHL, even if the enemy or other groups and forces do not.

All of what is happening is separate from whether the Palestinians under occupation by the Israelis, as well as being ruled by Hamas in an authoritarian political Islam based system of governance, have a justification to revolt and seek their freedom. In the Western ethical norms for war and warfare, this discussion would be framed under Just Revolution Theory. Basically, Just Revolution Theory provides two justifications for when it is ethically appropriate to revolt. The first is when a population is being tyrannized and discriminated against by their government. It does not matter here if the population is a majority or minority of the overall population within the state and society. The second is when a population is under attack and being discriminated against by another group or groups within the same state and society and the government refuses to protect the former from the latter. While this is, of course, a western conception of ethics justifying a revolution, I don’t think many would disagree that should the Palestinians choose to undertake an actual third intifadeh, that it would be covered under the first criteria, if not by both. And that both the Israeli government, which is the formally recognized occupation authority, and Hamas, which won a single election in 2006 and has been running Gaza ever since, both fit under the government/state in this conceptualization.

What Hamas did last week, however, is not something covered under Just Revolution Theory. Trying to shoe horn Hamas’s attack, which was likely successful beyond Hamas’s planners’ and leadership’s imagination, under Just Revolution Theory is just a waste of intellectual time and energy. It isn’t even covered under the Islamic concept of jihad as a response to aggression that has conditions. From my JAN (winter) 2002 article on this topic:

Murtada Mutahhari posits that while war can be aggressive, jihad is a response to aggression that has conditions. The conditions are that the adversary must be in a state of aggression towards an Islamic community and/or that the adversary is unjustly oppressing some group, either Muslim or non-Muslim. Furthermore, jihad encompasses the defense of life, property, wealth, land, independence, and principles. The most valuable form of jihad is not in defense of oneself, but rather in defense of humanity and human rights. Those that perform this type of jihad literally and figuratively enjoin the good and forbid the evil.

You’ll find the citations in the original, which is attached here as a pdf:

Just War, Jihad, & Terrorism by Adam L Silverman

What Hamas was not able to do was draw Iran farther into the conflict:

Strategic deterrence does work, especially when one actually undertakes it:

Hamas will, however, continue to try to manipulate this situation to force the US and other states into an uncomfortable position as supporters of Israel in this current crisis by trying to draw Israel into responses that violate IHL. Such as:

Another thing that Hamas was trying to do with their attack as PSYACT was get the worst possible actors in the US, as well as other political systems to be their true selves. Which is why we get this type of stupidity:

We file the above under DeStupid is as DeStupid does!

Congressman Mast DID not serve in the IDF. He volunteered for a program intended to get credulous Americans to come to Israel for a couple of weeks, stay in a hotel and spend all day packing supplies for the Israeli military. This program appears to target white American evangelicals and they usually require the volunteers to pay their own way.

Congressman Mast was an Explosive Ordnance Device (EOD) NCO (staff sergeant/E6). Here are the qualifications and responsibilities for that rank:

The staff sergeant rank closely parallels that of the sergeant in duties and responsibilities. In fact, the basic duties and responsibility of all the NCO ranks never change, but there are significant differences between this step in the NCO structure and the preceding one.

The major difference between the staff sergeant and the sergeant is not, as often mistakenly believed, authority but rather sphere of influence. The staff sergeant is in daily contact with large numbers of soldiers and generally has more equipment and other property to maintain.

The SSG often has one or more sergeants who work under their direct leadership. The SSG is responsible for the continued successful development of sergeants as well as the soldiers in their section, squad or team.

Moving up the Army ranks: SSG candidates must meet the following basic eligibility criteria to compete:

Command recommendation
84 months’ time in service
10 months’ time in grade
Must graduate the primary leadership development course (PLDC)
Possess a high school diploma, GED equivalency or college degree

Congressman Mast is not someone with significant supervisory experience in the US Army, nor with any experience that was not tactical. And he definitely never served in the Israeli Defense Forces.

We’re also seeing response like these:

Which was to be expected. The hard left anti-Israel/anti-Zionist folks in many US political movements and groups have now run smack into the hard right antisemitic and anti-liberal democracy culture warriors. With the former giving the latter plenty of new grist for their mills.

And this:

And this response:

To this statement from President Biden:

This, however, is a good sign:

And this:

And especially this!

“[Jaffa city councilor Amir] Badran stressed that in the last few days he has spoken with representatives of local Arab neighborhoods, the Islamic Council of Jaffa, the League for the Jaffa Arabs, the Orthodox Church Association, local sheikhs and imams, and various Jewish and Arab activists. They are all ‘devastated by what is happening and are committed, on one hand, to preventing violence, incitement or harassment by Arabs vis-à-vis Jews or by Jews vis-à-vis Arabs,’ he said. ‘Everyone is committed to asking their communities to show restraint, on one hand, and, on the other, are demanding that the municipality and the police ensure our personal safety, our children’s safety and the safety of our places of worship.’”

Ron Kampeas’s reporting from several month’s back on US concerns regarding Bibi’s and his coalition’s political objectives is very salient:

WASHINGTON (JTA) — President Joe Biden has not hidden his disdain of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s planned rehaul of Israel’s courts.

But bubbling beneath the surface of Israel’s political crisis is another concern: shared U.S.-Israel security interests.

As Israeli reservists pledge to boycott call-ups in protest of the controversial judicial reform legislation, experts say Israel’s enemies could see opportunity — and that the Biden administration is worried. Gen. Mark Milley, the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is headed to Israel next week to check in on the Israeli military, reports claimed on Wednesday.

“The United States has lots of partners in the Middle East, but Israel is by far its closest and strongest partner in the Middle East,” said Shira Efron, the senior director of policy research at the Israel Policy Forum, a group that advocates for a two-state outcome to the conflict. “If Israel’s capabilities and its readiness is affected, the United States loses capabilities in the Middle East.”

The Biden administration said it was “deeply concerned” by the firing. An early version of the National Security Council statement, released to the Times of Israel, read: “We are deeply concerned by the ongoing developments in Israel, including the potential impact on military readiness raised by Minister Gallant.”

The NSC removed the phrase about military readiness from later versions of the statement — NSC spokesmen never answered questions as to why — and Netanyahu rescinded his firing of Gallant.

But even as Gallant remains in place, deep questions remain about the degree to which Israel’s searing political divide have weakened its vaunted military and intelligence apparatuses. Netanyahu — and even his son Yair, on social media — has clashed with top military brass, and reports claim the prime minister aims to shake up parts of the army’s chain of command.

Netanyahu has batted down concerns, saying that the changes to the courts that have passed are minor and that he is no longer committed to other parts of the proposed rehaul his government rolled out in January. His opponents don’t believe him and continue to flood the streets at least once a week in massive protests.

Much more at the link!

This is all incredibly important given that the Israeli security failures and what we are learning about them has led to a new set of protests.

When all else fails count on Bibi to be Bibi!

Here’s a machine translation of the Thread Reader App of Zehavi’s thread:

1./ Most of you know me from the foreign desk. The world is close to my heart and as far as the journalistic mission is concerned, it is to try to make you look outside of Israel, because the events overseas also affect what is happening here.
This week, under the auspices of the News Division, I exceeded my customs and spent most of my time in the southern towns. I felt there was a proper name to be > 
2./ On the first morning I arrived at Stunned Avenue. What happened there on Saturday surprised even the city he called the president: “Israel’s heroic line”. I came across shock, in a ghost town, in people who felt completely promiscuous, in residents who fought themselves – those with weapons and those with bare hands – in a terrorist squad that was eliminated at the police station only at the end of a bloody day. > 
3./ Horizons are tens of miles from the Strip but its streets have become terror arenas, homes for terrorist fortresses and its inhabitants for front fighters. The sidewalks of Tamar Street are full of projectiles, the walls of the buildings are perforated, but in horizons I discovered hope. “They are our heroes,” one of the residents told me about David and Rachel Edri, the country’s most famous couple > 
4./ Later that day we also reached the lanes. Desolate and locked. Only after a few rounds did we find a confectionery that sells coffee. Almond milk does not, which is a lot of optimism. “We do what it takes,” the seller told me while struggling with the coffee machine. “Leave the coffee now,” I replied. “What comes out – is good for me. The main thing is that I see some life > 
5./ I went back to Sderot. On Sunday we took a broadcast stand on the roof of the downtown settlement meeting, but now this building, on one side of which is the city and on the other the north strip, It is no longer a settlement meeting but a reserve base > 
6/ Meanwhile, the Sword Police Station has moved from a community center located near the municipality. Minister Ben Gvir was not welcomed here. “It’s your fault,” some reservists told him while making a incitement statement without answering questions > 
6/ Again and again I returned to Sderot and on Thursday, for the first time, Sderot seemed optimistic. It was veins and arteries that performed the opposite action. From around the country, they poured all the best into this heart, to Sderot. Applies, canned goods, matrana, coffee and even almond milk. The pulse of civil society returned to Sderot. Only she and no one else > 
7./ I look at these great souls. A sea of people who until a week ago felt they might no longer find something that connected them. And here, the great disaster we brought has made the people in this country the world’s largest giving army.
I really hope we can keep it the day after. 

This finally happened:

Most likely because this was happening:

 

 

 

Oy vey!

Some thoughts to end with:

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

139Comments

  1. 1.

    db11

    Thank you Adam. Your specific expertise and resulting insights — not to mention the sheer scale of your efforts here — are much appreciated.

  4. 4.

    West of the Cascades

    I’m trying to imagine Mike Pompeo or Rex Tillerson having the empathetic and and humane interaction Secretary Blinken did in that clip and utterly failing.

  5. 5.

    oldster

    Thanks for this, Adam.

    I got a good laugh from the space-laser joke.

    I suppose I should have realized that Hamas hoped for a simultaneous uprising from Hezbollah in the northeast of the country, and some coordination from Iran. I am glad — very glad — that Iran decided not to green-light an escalation of that kind. If Biden and Blinken had a hand in persuading Iran not to do this, then they are both heroes.

  6. 6.

    Chacal Charles Calthrop

    Again, as always, thank you Adam.

    As for collective guilt, i was trying to avoid the news this week, and so happened to fall into watching an except from Game of Thrones.  Bad idea, because basically every other episode of Game of Thrones is: We will exterminate/rape/utterly humiliate you, no, we will kill/utterly humiliate you!  followed by pyrotechnics, gruesome special effects, lots of visually stunning deaths.

    How may people have watched, or paid to watch, Game of Thrones or movies or shows like this?  A lot!   I remember how after 9/11 all sorts of movies were pulled from the theaters because they featured explosions. We love this stuff!  All of us!  So, yes, we are all guilty because we are all related to people who liked, or still like, to do this kind of killing for real.  We like it ourselves.

    As for the poor hostages, the Jerusalem Post carried the story of a woman who hadn’t paid rent for October and, when her landlord found out she’d been kidnapped by Hamas, he sent her an eviction notice even though she was sure to default because she couldn’t come to court because she’d been kidnapped by Hamas.   Her roommate’s father took to social media to share the story: “I never thought I would encounter [this]…..I published it so that apartment owners would be careful of treating other people like this and think twice.”

  7. 7.

    West of the Rockies

    I know you’re suggesting Hamas is playing some long-game deep psy-ops thing here (and out-thinking Israel and The West), but is it possible they grossly underestimated the ensuing rage they would create by hacking children to death?

    Maybe some of their violence stems from  super patriarchal, fundamentalist toxic-masculinity?  I didn’t hear anything about female Hamas fighters.

    I think Netanyahu will now do the same, diminishing world sympathy for Israel, and being the patriarchal putz he is

    Dammit, I thought Jared fixed this mess!

  8. 8.

    Yutsano

    I just can’t. It’s too draining. I don’t have any good solutions or even ideas to help. There’s going to be a lot more pointless death. There will be orphaned children who will have nothing but hate reinforced into them on both sides. I want to scream but what would be the point?

  11. 11.

    Matt

     trying to draw Israel into responses that violate IHL

    Oh those pwooow widdle IDF sowlders who are left with NO CHOICE but to do war crimes. /s

    They’re revving up the victim-blaming machine for the inevitable genocide, and folks like Adam are lapping it up.

  13. 13.

    Geminid

    Former Knesset Member Einat Wilf posted a cogent statement Saturday, October 7. It was a critique of Israel’s faulty troop dispositions in the Negev and the West Bank, and the policies that led to them:

    “Abandon those who live within the borders of the State of Israel and its sovereign territory, those who are entitled to the protection of the State and its Army, for those who jump on hills outside the borders of the State. The lack of a clear border in the West Bank and the collection of delusional messiahs who are only trying to stretch the borders are a disaster for Israel.”

    [translated from Hebrew]

  16. 16.

    Soprano2

    Bibi and TFG really are birds of a feather, aren’t they? I can absolutely imagine TFG thinking that the families of the hostages were unimportant, and I can imagine him deciding the hostage’s lives were unimportant,  too.

    On Wednesday Terri Gross did an interview with Daniel Byman about the war. I don’t know much about him, but the things he said seemed even-handed and fair, and he seemed to be knowledgeable. Just an FYI.

  17. 17.

    Burnspbesq

    Israel has never hesitated to over-react to Hamas attacks, but this time it’s got several toes on the wrong side of the line that separates violations of the law of armed conflict from outright genocide.

    Which is never justified, no matter how heinous the provocation.

  18. 18.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @Matt:

    What WotR and AR said.

    Pied.

    ETA: And Geminid

    ETA 2: I meant, What Geminid also said, not that I am pieing Geminid.

  20. 20.

    Geminid

    @Soprano2: Einat Wilf, the former MK I quoted at #13, is also a good source on the Israeli/Palestinian conflict. As a young woman, Wilf served on Prime Minister Rabin’s team that negotiated the Oslo Accords. She has written extensively since her short Knesset career in the early part of the last decade. Wilf’s recent book The War of Return analyses the roadblocks preventing a two-state settlement.

  21. 21.

    bookworm1398

    Meanwhile in Chicago:
    MAN TARGETED 6-YEAR-OLD BOY, WOMAN IN DEADLY PLAINFIELD STABBING BECAUSE THEY ARE MUSLIM: DETECTIVES
    71-year-old Joseph M. Czuba charged with hate crime: Will County Sheriff’s Office

  22. 22.

    Gin & Tonic

    OT, but exit polling seems to be showing PiS having their ass handed to them in the Polish elections. The opposition, pro-EU, is doing unexpectedly well.

  25. 25.

    Alison Rose

    @oldster: During the J6 hearings, I posted this on FB:

    Liz Cheney has that way of speaking very calmly while also sounding like she’s about to stab a motherfucker in the gut

    I said my above comment to our new little troll in a similar voice.

  28. 28.

    eversor

    @Burnspbesq:

    I’m cynical about this because if you look at any armed conflict in our history of armed conflicts, which has been around as long as we have, everyone has always had at minimum toes on the wrong side of violations of law and a good majority of them dabble in the wrong side of genocide. A war between two peoples or religious group is defacto a genocidal conflict.

    The leadership on both sides realizes this is a genocidal conflict and a zero sum game.  While the majority of the people don’t want that a significant amount of them do.  Then at the end of the day the opinions of people mean fuck all if their leaders railroad them into such a conflict.

    It’s better to judge based off the actions of individuals.  The actions taken in the initial attack by Hamas are all utterly beyond the pale.  We don’t, and we won’t, have reports of the Israeli military being that cruel and brutal.  There is no equaiting what’s being done.  Most importantly though we have tons of reports of compasion and kindness all over the place.

    Stay focused on individual actions to get a read on things.  Leaderships authorizing war crimes and worse is “for me, it was Tuesday” level normal.  It’s sad but it’s who we are as species.

  29. 29.

    Brachiator

    The behavior that Hamas wished to illicit from the Israelis was to create such an overwhelming sense of fear, terror, anger, and grief that Israel’s government – Bibi’s coalition – would respond in such an indiscriminate manner that credible accusations of violations of international humanitarian law (IHL), war crimes, and crimes against humanity could be leveled against the Israelis.

    I disagree with this analysis, and note that I don’t know squat about military doctrine.

    The cruelty and brutality of the attacks by Hamas were clearly shown on smartphones and dashcams, and in video by Hamas itself. This foreclosed sympathy for Hamas or Palestinian civilians, and has also generated an increase in anti-immigrant sentiment throughout Europe and the United States.

    Also, the degree to which the attack took Israel by surprise has resulted in the Israelis responding slowly and with extreme caution, to avoid being caught in another trap.

    There has also been an interesting policy that has spread within western media and governments to immediately and definitively condemn Hamas and to refuse to allow an opinion of Hamas as anything but terrorists and even Nazis.

    In the UK in particular, reporters have demanded a pro forma condemnation of Hamas before continuing an interview with Labour Party political figures. Tories got the message early and have been quick to comply.

    Leftists who speak of their solidarity with the Palestinians have been vilified.

  31. 31.

    Bill Arnold

    @Gin & Tonic:

    OT, but exit polling seems to be showing PiS having their ass handed to them in the Polish elections. The opposition, pro-EU, is doing unexpectedly well.

    Yeah, I have a Signal chat group with a couple of (non-RW) Poles in it, and there’s been some excitement this afternoon (in the US).

  32. 32.

    Chacal Charles Calthrop

    @Geminid: 9/11 brought out all the crazies too, though.

    Remember the mailed Anthrax?  The sniper who picked off random cars on the highway?  For that matter, the shoe-bomber, for whom we have all been taking off our shoes in every airport security line for years now?

  33. 33.

    Alison Rose

    @Brachiator:

    There has also been an interesting policy that has spread within western media and governments to immediately and definitively condemn Hamas and to refuse to allow an opinion of Hamas as anything but terrorists and even Nazis.

    Pray tell, how should we be describing them?

  34. 34.

    azlib

    Thanks Adam for your posts. I know they take a lot time and effort. They provide a lot of nuance about this complex situation. I wish our media would read what you write.  Maybe some do.

  35. 35.

    wjca

    @Soprano2: I can absolutely imagine TFG thinking that the families of the hostages were unimportant, and I can imagine him deciding the hostage’s lives were unimportant,  too.

    Oh, no.  Not unimportant at all.

    Because, after all, they would be demonstrating and demanding that he do something.  Thus both stealing the spotlight from him and making him look bad.  Both of which transgressions are very important (in a negative way) to him.

  36. 36.

    Carlo Graziani

    @West of the Rockies: 

    I know you’re suggesting Hamas is playing some long-game deep psy-ops thing here (and out-thinking Israel and The West), but is it possible they grossly underestimated the ensuing rage they would create by hacking children to death?

    Maybe some of their violence stems from super patriarchal, fundamentalist toxic-masculinity? I didn’t hear anything about female Hamas fighters.

    I suppose it’s possible, but I rather doubt it. This was a meticulously planned operation, probably a year in preparation, with impressive security, and high level of coordination between Hamas’ military leadership and over a thousand fighters. I am very skeptical that Hamas would go to these lengths merely for the satisfaction of perpetrating a pogrom. It was a military operation guided by some kind of consensus objective. Adam may not have a complete read on Hamas’ thinking—nobody really does—but the thesis that he’s outlining seems quite plausible to me.

  37. 37.

    trnc

    OK, so Brian Mast said:

    As the only member to serve with both the United States Army and the Israel Defense Forces, I will always stand with Israel.

    Josh rightfully tore that statement apart, but then added this:

    I think that’s what the “with” is about. He kind of served “with” the idf in the sense that he volunteered to help move and pack things while idf soldier where there etc.

    I don’t think Mast deserves any benefit of the doubt here. Since he actually did serve in the US Army, he is clearly trying to give the impression that he actually served in the IDF.  Also, IDF uniform? Really? It’s all so pathetic. Would love to think he would get some exposure on the bullshit.

  38. 38.

    wjca

    @Gin & Tonic: exit polling seems to be showing PiS having their ass handed to them in the Polish elections. The opposition, pro-EU, is doing unexpectedly well.

    The xenophobic right has been growing stronger across Europe over the past several years, just as it has here.  I’d really like to see this as a sign that the tide is turning across the board.

  39. 39.

    New Deal democrat

    @West of the Rockies:

    is it possible [Hamas] grossly underestimated the ensuing rage they would create ….

    I think Netanyahu will now do the same, diminishing world sympathy for Israel, and being the patriarchal putz he is.

    I share your general sentiments. Originally I thought Hamas’s plan was to maximize the number of hostages, and trade them for massive Israeli concessions, after posting videos of them begging for their lives (and far worse).

    But there have been no such videos, and no demands. So what was the plan?

    They had to know Israel would react massively. Okay, so I was waiting to see if they learned anything from Ukraine, and used kamikaze drones against Israeli forces massed on their border. But … nothing.

    So, the plan was: kill lots of Israelis, provoke a massive response, Israel would kill maybe 10,000s of Palestinians, annex the northern half of Gaza, and then Hamas would declare victory?????

    One thing I do disagree with on the analysis of the post is that I think it is too early to count Hesbollah and Iran out. I don’t think either of those two would do anything meaningful until there is a ground invasion of Gaza. Also, one should never count on the rational reaction of political leaders. See,e.g., August 1914.

  40. 40.

    trnc

    @Matt: I don’t know what your comment history is around here, so I’ll just say that, at the very least, you have grossly misunderstood Adam’s post.

  41. 41.

    Geminid

    @Chacal Charles Calthrop: I remember the Sikh gas station owner who was murderd after 9/11 because someone thought he was an Arab. Now this war is bringing out those who hate Jewish people as well.

    It’s also roiled up this forum. I remember thinking how refreshing it was that people were giving the war a break yesterday. I’ve talked about it plenty, but I’ve held back plenty and yesterday was one of those days.

  42. 42.

    Betty Cracker

    @trnc: Mast was elected with help from a notorious Russian hacker. The connection was exposed by a commie rag called The Wall Street Journal.

     

    @Carlo Graziani: Of course I have no idea what’s happening, but in this New Yorker interview, a Hamas figure parked in Doha is backpedaling furiously, giving the impression maybe he didn’t fully expect the response.

  43. 43.

    eversor

    @Chacal Charles Calthrop:

    The sniper had nothing to do with 9/11.

    The Beltway Sniper fiasco was over child custody.  The shooter was estranged from his children and wanted revenge.  The mass shooting part of it was a way to hide that he was after his ex.  Thus when she got killed would have been a random killing.

    This is all known and proven through the investigation and trial.

    The way this got into the “it was jihad” was that his accomplice, Malvo, started writing diatribes while in prison.  These writings insisted it was jihad and that he was in contact with Bin Laden, Sadam, and others.  He also claimed Muhammad set a quota of white people to kill a week, wanted to shoot pregnant white women, and wanted to set up a training camp for kidnapped children to terrorize cities.

    This was of course all proven to be utter bullshit and Malvo only started claiming this years after the shootings and his imprisonment.  The only people who took it seriously were right wingers eager to turn this into “angry black muslim people want to kill white people” rather than “unstable violent man goes on shooting spree so he can shoot his ex”.  Malvo also admitted lying on the stand and at other times repeatedly.

    We can blame a lot on 9/11 but the sniper fiasco is not part of it.

  44. 44.

    Geminid

    @New Deal democrat: I think the US is trying to deter Hezbollah with that second Carrier Group that we’re sending to the eastern Mediterranean

    We did not intervene militarily in the 1967 and 1973 wars, but I can see us bombing Hezbollah forces launching missiles at Israel. Those ships have a lot of anti-missile capabilities too, and we might well help defend Israeli airspace with them if all-out war breaks out in the north.

  45. 45.

    Brachiator

    @Alison Rose:

    RE: There has also been an interesting policy that has spread within western media and governments to immediately and definitively condemn Hamas and to refuse to allow an opinion of Hamas as anything but terrorists and even Nazis.

    Pray tell, how should we be describing them?

    In an early interview, Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf tearfully noted that his parents-in-law are trapped in Gaza and fearing for their lives. The reporter ignored the political leader’s distress and instead asked, “Do you condemn Hamas?” before continuing the interview.

    It is not the job of reporters to act as political defenders of the faith. It is one thing to describe the horrors that Hamas have committed. It is something else entirely to demand that interview subjects offer formal statements of condemnation using pre-approved words. But this is often standard operating procedure with British reporters, especially when Labour Party leaders are interviewed.

  46. 46.

    Alison Rose

    @Brachiator: I agree that random Palestinians and/or Muslims should not constantly be asked to condemn Hamas before they order coffee or whatnot. I will also point out that every Jew around the world is expected to publicly condemn every horrible thing Israel ever does, and that if we miss one or two, we’re called Zionists and far worse. This is a two-way street.

    But your response doesn’t address what I asked. If you don’t think Hamas are terrorists or Jew-haters, then what do you think they are?

  49. 49.

    New Deal democrat

    @Geminid:

    the US is trying to deter Hezbollah with that second Carrier Group that we’re sending to the eastern Mediterranean

    I agree that is a (the?) likely purpose, but as for the US becoming an active belligerent in this war, see my comment about August 1914.

  50. 50.

    trnc

    @Alison Rose

    @Brachiator

    I’ve seen various references to charity and social services organized by Hamas, but trying to think of Hamas with the terrorism and violence is like trying to make sense of Scalise’s “David Duke without the baggage” comment. If you remove the violence/baggage, there’s basically nothing left.

  53. 53.

    trnc

    @trnc: … trying to think of Hamas with the terrorism and violence …

    Dammit! I meant “without,” in case that wasn’t clear.

  54. 54.

    mvr

    @Betty Cracker: Your point is also relevant to New Deal Democrat’s question – “But there have been now such videos, and no demans. So what was the plan?”

    That a particular thing is not happening isn’t really evidence that that thing wasn’t planned, since it is likely that things didn’t go as planned and now Hamas has to deal with the reality they created.

    I am trying not to be very opinionated here or elsewhere, but I appreciate Adam’s cautions up front.

  55. 55.

    Geminid

    @mvr: I think the planning for Hamas’s attack was very closely held. Hamas leaders in Doha and Istanbul were likely informed of the operation in only general terms, to the extent they were informed at all.

  56. 56.

    eversor

    @trnc:

    You get IIRC three months while going from the military to the civilian side of things.  This is a courtesy and it’s expected to end when you get where you are going.

    You can be asked to wear the uniform by the executive branch (I think this is at the choice of POTUS though I doubt the call ever goes that high) later for certain functions.

    Your uniform is not really your uniform.  It’s your services.  You do get to keep it though.  However you shouldn’t be wearing if if you are not currently serving or not on an official function where you were asked to.  Or transiting out of the service.  This is a big no-no.

    If you want to broadcast your service you are free to wear all the PT gear you want, ball caps, lapel pins, lanyards, and more!  Most do from time to time.

    And even if you did get asked to wear an old uniform for whatever silly reason it was you can’t show up in half a uniform.  This is an all or nothing thing.  It’s also extremely rare.

  57. 57.

    NutmegAgain

    @wjca: Dunno. Look at the most recent German state elections, and the encroachment of AfD, spit.  But we can hope. I would love to hear from Tony on Labour’s chances, and those of Starmer.

  58. 58.

    jackmac

    It’s usually Ruzzian atrocities that get the blood boiling, not comments from the 99.9 percent of really smart people who post here.

    And then there’s Matt (in Comment No. 11). Christ, what an asshole. I hope Adam considers a lifetime ban on this moron.

    Also, what the hell is Rep. Brian Mast trying to prove with his IDF cosplay? I ventured a guess that he’s from Florida before even looking it up.

    Taking deep breaths now …

    Thanks, as always, Adam for your timely and comprehensive reporting.

  59. 59.

    mvr

    @Geminid: Very possibly so. My point was just that they may not have planned for the outcomes they got (some reporting suggests that this is so) and so what they are doing now may not be what they planned to be doing now.  That seems to me to make it a stretch to rule out something originally having been part of the plan just because we haven’t seen it.  I tend to think we should be cautious both about ruling in and ruling out hypotheses about plans under such circumstance.

  61. 61.

    bjacques

    @Geminid: if anyone were serious about snuffing out Hamas, they’d start with those leaders and spokesmen in Doha and anywhere else safely outside Gaza, and a few of their benefactors, Keyser Sőze-style. Israel used to be good at that sort of thing. If that’s too close for Bibi’s comfort, tough luck.

    Thanks, Adam, for spotlighting the green shoots of sanity in the muck. I hope those Israelis not wanting to be played by Bibi or Hamas are enough to push the country in a better direction and open up an avenue of hope for the Palestinians.

  62. 62.

    trnc

    @jackmac: Was that Matt today a new troll? I know we have some other Matts here who use last name, initials, etc, but I don’t remember seeing a commenter who just called himself Matt.

    It’s always weird when someone shows up out of nowhere to post some bizarre bullshit here, but a few of the right wing comment areas I’ve wandered into a few times probably say the same thing about me.

  64. 64.

    wjca

    @eversor: However you shouldn’t be wearing if if you are not currently serving or not on an official function where you were asked to.

    I expect they draw a distinction between “wearing the uniform” and wearing, say, the shirt but not the rest.  It definitely seems a shame otherwise.

    Full disclosure: I have a tan shirt (1505s) from my days in the Air Force.  Half a century of regular wear (perhaps more relevantly, regular washing) later, it’s still in great shape.  Trying to imagine any other clothing that’s that sturdy.  Let’s hear it for MilSpec!

  65. 65.

    Geminid

    @Geminid:

     

    @New Deal democrat: I was short with you to the point of being disrespectful, and I regret that because I respect you very much.

    But as to the comparison with 1914, I would point out that Russia already has its hands full in Ukraine, and China will steer clear of a war in the Middle East.

    That leaves Iran. If they want to go to war with the US they have much more to lose than we do.

    Ten years ago I would have feared that a US attack on Iran would have united the populace behind the regime, but now most Iranians hate the men- and they are all men- who rule them through fear.

    The regime’s championing of the Palestinian cause has created animus towards that cause. In last year’s demonstrations over the death of Amina Mahsa, crowds trampled on the “Palestine Street” signs found in Iranian cities. Last week, when pro-regime people pulled out a Palestine banner at a big football match the crowd jeered and chanted against them.

    I don’t think that regime would survive a war with the US and I think they know it. And I don’t fear what would come after that regime’s fall either.

  68. 68.

    Geminid

    @trnc: This guy has been an infrequent commenter for a while. I remember him from over a year ago because I did not like what he had to say and my name is also Matt.

    I admit that is an unusual name for a meteor, but my parents liked to watch Gunsmoke episodes when they were flying by Earth. They named my sister Miss Kitty.

  70. 70.

    Brachiator

    @Alison Rose:

    I agree that random Palestinians and/or Muslims should not constantly be asked to condemn Hamas before they order coffee or whatnot.

    The First Minister of Scotland is not a random Muslim. The interview was not a random conversation. Are you dismissing his anguish at not knowing what might be happening to his in-laws?

    I will also point out that every Jew around the world is expected to publicly condemn every horrible thing Israel ever does, and that if we miss one or two, we’re called Zionists and far worse.

    This is a bullshit expectation. Total and absolute bullshit. I also note that in recent days, some of the most thoughtful and fair-minded discussions of the situation in Israel, the West Bank and Gaza have come from Jewish political commentators. This thoughtfulness should, but will not, shame the ignorant or bigots.

    This is a two-way street.

    It’s not a two-way street, an intersection, a roundabout or even a blind alley.

    But your response doesn’t address what I asked. If you don’t think Hamas are terrorists or Jew-haters, then what do you think they are?

    I reported what I had seen in the media. I also said,

    “The cruelty and brutality of the attacks by Hamas were clearly shown on smartphones and dashcams, and in video by Hamas itself.”

    I DID NOT say that I didn’t think that Hamas are terrorists. Not here, nor in any other comment. Where did you get such an idea?

    I have tried to watch some historical videos about what has led to the current situation in the region. What I have seen says that Hamas fundamentally does not believe that the state of Israel has a right to exist. This might make them worse than terrorists, since there is no political solution that might satisfy them.

  72. 72.

    eversor

    @wjca:

    It’s sort of a thing that’s not enforced.  Nobody is going to give a flying fuck if you wear your BDU pants while doing yardwork, wear your Navy peacoat in the winter, or cut your BDU pants into shorts and wear them about town.  Most people grasp that, as you said, the milspec stuff is costly but good fucking lord is it quality that lasts.  Nobody gives a fuck about the ponchos.

    But you can’t just say wear your dress/working uniform and wander about in a manner that would imply you are still serving.

    There’s the “this is outside of intended bounds, but we all do it and nobody gives a fuck” which is easy to toss at wearing parts of the uniform.  Then there is the “are you on crack” which is wearing the official uniform or enough of it as a stunt when you are not in the service.

    IIRC also the uniform applies to putting on the whole thing.  I’m not entirely sure of the details.  The main thrust though is most veterans are able to navigate the details of this easily.  And do not show up in the halls of congress in uniform.

    And on this whole tangent what happened to “we care about dress codes”?

  74. 74.

    wjca

    @Geminid: Ten years ago I would have feared that a US attack on Iran would have united the populace behind the regime, but now most Iranians hate the men- and they are all men- who rule them through fear.

    And while there are doubtless still some true believers among the mullahs, and perhaps even among the Revolutionary Guard officers, an awful lot of them are now in it primarily for power and perks.  Which restricts how much risk they are willing to take.

    Selling arms to Russia?  No worries.  Cheering on, and even providing some arms (albeit at least vaguely deniably) to Hezbollah?  Also OK.  Arming the fighters in Yemen?  Fine.  But actually getting involved directly in fighting (unless militarily attacked, of course)?  Way to dangerous to their wealth and position.

  76. 76.

    eversor

    @raven:

    That was roughly how it was put to me when I left the service.  Granted that was over a decade ago and things may have changed.  But we were explicitly told not to wear it once out, but was OK in transit, and that was mostly that.]

    It’s been a while and things may have changed though.

  77. 77.

    wjca

    @eversor: And on this whole tangent what happened to “we care about dress codes”?

    Dress codes, like all rules, are something to attack opponents with.  Not something they really care about.

  78. 78.

    Another Scott

    @Brachiator: Labour is ahead by something like 25 points in the polling for the next election.  Too much of the UK press has a history of acting as the PR firm for the Tories.  Plus, they all want a horserace.

    And they know that attacking Labour as being anti-Semitic or soft on terrorism or insufficient support of Israel is a way to knock them down a few pegs.

    IOW, the UK press has its own pathologies.

    My $0.02.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  80. 80.

    strange vistor (from another planet)

    adam, i love your work and dedication. i’m sorry you have to do it, i wish we could talk comics or cartoons instead. hopefully someday soon.

    i have a few questions: what responsibilities (if any) does egypt have for their shared border with gaza? what is the egyptian government’s relationship to hamas? do they have forces on their side of the wall?

    are they patrolling that part of the shore and keeping the gazans in? does the IDF have to coordinate with them when it wants to cut off water and power to the strip?

    thanks.

  83. 83.

    eversor

    @raven:

    I’m not/wasn’t.  But I did leave while the old wars were in high gear and things were pretty explicit about what you should and should not do.  We had an entire week long offboarding about what you can and can’t wear.  What you can and cannot say.  Along with basic life skills stuff like how to go find a job, who was recruiting, and on and on.  All the way down to mock job interviews and having to tell people what clothes to wear.

    Again I’m not sure how it’s done now.   I’m also sure my offboarding wasn’t the same as everyones.  But it was made clear to us not to just slap on say your dress blues and walk about town and it’s a massive “don’t do this”.

  86. 86.

    raven

    @eversor: Motherfuckers gave us a steak and ice cream and say our asses on a concrete floor at Oakland Army Base for 3 days waiting to muster out. They skipped the speeches.

  89. 89.

    Another Scott

    @Gin & Tonic: @Yutsano: DW.com:

    Exit polls suggest Poland’s opposition parties could end eight years of rule by the populist Law and Justice (PiS) party by winning a parliamentary majority in Sunday’s election.

    Former prime minister turned leading EU official and now Polish political comeback kid Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition could win 163 seats in the 460-seat parliament and two smaller groups, Third Way and Left, were set for 55 and 30 seats respectively, according to the exit poll.

    Even though Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki’s nationalist conservative PiS won the most votes it was only enough to give them 200 seats. The party’s potential coalition partner the far-right Confederation, was given only 12 seats by the Ipsos exit poll.

    That is too few for a governing majority.

    “I have never been so happy about second place. Poland has won, democracy has won, this is the end of the PiS government,” Tusk said.

    Bill Clinton is calling DW right now up to get his royalty payment.

    ;-)

    It looks like a very good result for Poland, the EU, NATO, etc.

    Fingers crossed.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  91. 91.

    eversor

    @raven:

    FUCKING WOW!  That sucks!  I don’t know what to say about that.

    We all got an entire conference room at base and had financial advisors, life coaches, and companies come in to show us their jobs and hand out folders and recruitment packages.  For the enlisted (ours was both officers and enlisted) they gave us tools to use the GI BILL, business loan, home loand, and turn our service education into college credits.

    We got catered food each day as well.

    Sorry you had to fornicate the canine on yours, that blows.

  92. 92.

    Alison Rose

    @Brachiator: You said:

    In an early interview, Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf tearfully noted that his parents-in-law are trapped in Gaza and fearing for their lives. The reporter ignored the political leader’s distress and instead asked, “Do you condemn Hamas?” before continuing the interview.

    I was making a generalization that I do not think any Palestinian or Muslim person, whatever position they hold, should be asked reflexively by reporters or others to condemn Hamas during any and all conversations. I don’t get where you saw “dismissing his anguish” in my comment.

    When I said “a two-way street” I was referring to your comment about the reporter and the Scottish man, that him being asked to condemn Hamas was similar to how Jews everywhere are asked to denounce Bibi and his minions. That this kind of inane expectation of diaspora folks happens on both sides of this particular conflict.

    I DID NOT say that I didn’t think that Hamas are terrorists. Not here, nor in any other comment. Where did you get such an idea?

    You said (emphasis mine):

    There has also been an interesting policy that has spread within western media and governments to immediately and definitively condemn Hamas and to refuse to allow an opinion of Hamas as anything but terrorists and even Nazis.

    Your wording here implies that you disagree with the notion of labeling Hamas as “anything but terrorists and even Nazis”. Saying that media and governments “refuse to allow” any other opinions implies you think there are other valid opinions, other acceptable descriptions of Hamas. So I was asking you to tell me what you think those other opinions are, besides “terrorists and Nazis” that ought to be “allowed”.

    If you agree that Hamas are antisemitic terrorists, you should have worded this differently.

  93. 93.

    wjca

    @eversor: I hate dress codes.  Years ago I got fired for refusing to enforce one.

    I’m fine with a dress code which says “Get dressed before coming in to the office.  If/when you will be dealing with customers, don’t wear stuff which will put them off.  And you must wear required safety equipment.”  I don’t really see a justification beyond that.

  94. 94.

    brantl

    @Alison Rose: What cannot proceed from this, is the idea that all of the citizens of Palestine, or Gaza, should be killed indiscriminately as the expected payment for what Hamas did.

    Deliberately, or indiscriminately, killing innocents would make the Israelis that perpetrate it, and order it, as guilty as Hamas.

    Can everybody agree on that? I would hope we could.

    Maybe this won’t make the Iraelis ordering and doing this any worse than Hamas, but it certainly makes them no better than Hamas.

  95. 95.

    Geminid

    @brantl: I don’t agree with that. I’m not going to argue this, except to say that the way you stated this requires us to share certain assumptions. When you state a proposition in this way and assert that we can all agree on it I’m not gonna let it go without dissenting.

  96. 96.

    raven

    @eversor: Don’t mean nuthin. Also I am really sorry I jumped on this in this thread, I didn’t realize it was a serious post by Adam, I lost my place.

  97. 97.

    Martin

    @West of the Rockies: I know you’re suggesting Hamas is playing some long-game deep psy-ops thing here (and out-thinking Israel and The West), but is it possible they grossly underestimated the ensuing rage they would create by hacking children to death?

    Current CNN headline: “Conditions in Gaza are deteriorating dangerously under Israel’s siege, and the risk is growing of the long-running conflict spilling over regionally”

    Hamas was trying to instigate a security lockdown, which they accomplished. The poor conditions in Gaza, which the media refused to report on are now being reported on. The rage is what they were counting on. It remains to be seen if Hamas organizationally will actually suffer as a result of this, or if that cost will only be borne by the civilians, but I think the expectation is that Hamas will emerge from this just fine. I think Adam is signaling that Hamas expected a larger regional conflict to emerge from this, which may have benefitted Gaza (this is where people should try and offer up paths to improving conditions in Gaza that Israel was willing to accept under current leadership – and I don’t think there are any). When there is no visible path forward, sometimes you flip the table over and hope some emerge from that.

    I think this is where I get lost with Adam’s Just Revolution Theory. It suggests there were political avenues that Gaza could pursue as an alternative. I’m curious what people think those might be.

  98. 98.

    strange vistor (from another planet)

    wow. so that was weird. ok.

    @Alison Rose: as a fellow red-sea pedestrian, i salute your fortitude and moxy. too often i get to these threads too late to do anything but catch up on the chaos.

    keep fighting the good fight.

  100. 100.

    Suzanne

    Thank you, Adam.

    I have been dreading that first news check of the day for the last week. I don’t expect that to change this week.

  101. 101.

    Brachiator

    @Another Scott:

    Labour is ahead by something like 25 points in the polling for the next election.  Too much of the UK press has a history of acting as the PR firm for the Tories.  Plus, they all want a horserace.

    UK media is more malicious than US journalism. The big newspapers know that they are part of the Establishment and enjoy their power. They lie more openly. Apart from the Financial Times, all of the major news outlets lied about BREXIT. Even BBC coverage was slanted.

    Also, a number of editors of the major daily papers have gone on to become staff of Tory prime ministers.

    The smearing of former Labour leader was at least as bad as what happened here with Hillary Clinton. I recall some reporters referring to the “unelectable Jeremy Corbyn” so often that I thought that “unelectable” was his first name.

    The sad thing is that readers know the papers lie, but choose the ones whose lies fit their own ideologies.

    Labour has a huge lead and it is making the Establishment press very nervous.

  102. 102.

    brantl

    @Alison Rose: But that is pretty plainly what the Israeli government is gearing up to. Why they haven’t said that they are going to assassinate the Hamas leadership and their foot soldiers, and then do it, is beyond me. I don’t know of anyone who couldn’t get behind that.

  105. 105.

    trnc

    @raven: ​

    Pffft, I been wearing my jungle fatigues for over 50 whenever the fuck I want to. Think someone was going to stop me when I was reading names at the Wall in the middle of the night?

    That seems like an appropriate time to wear your uniform. So, no.

  107. 107.

    Bill Arnold

    @Yutsano:
    Reportedly, there were long lines to vote in the Polish election outside Poland; 3 hours in London. Perhaps driven by fears of Polexit. (See e.g. UPDATE: Crowds of Poles voting from abroad on election day)
    The overall turnout was around 73 percent, which is (according to friends) the highest since Polish independence. 1989/end of communism was 62 percent.
    The incumbent PIS-led coalition is said to not give up easily, similar to how current Republicans in the US do not concede.

  109. 109.

    Brachiator

    @Alison Rose:

    Your wording here implies that you disagree with the notion of labeling Hamas as “anything but terrorists and even Nazis”.

    Nonsense. Describing an unfair approach to reporting, particularly seen in the UK media, says nothing about my own beliefs.

  110. 110.

    Eolirin

    @Martin: Indiscriminately murdering and kidnapping civilians isn’t covered by Just Revolution Theory, period, was I think the point.

  112. 112.

    Bill Arnold

    @brantl:

    But that is pretty plainly what the Israeli government is gearing up to.

    Not seeing any evidence for that. Though I do suspect that the Israeli military planners expect 10+X more civilian Palestinian deaths than the count of those who were murdered by Hamas in Israel (past military responses typically have had such ratios), and “inevitable collateral damage” is, as A. Petri noted in her Oct 13 2023 piece, an evil euphemism.

    Another wildcard is that urban warfare against an opponent that fully knows (and has fortified) the urban terrain is very difficult, as the Russians learned in Grozny and more recently in some Ukrainian cities. (With Syria another practice area for the Russians.)

  113. 113.

    brantl

    @Bill Arnold:  They’re going to go into Gaza with ground troops, who are they going to encounter, other than innocent civilians? This will be much as they have done it before. They have sophisticated weapons, and they have told areas with hospitals in them to evacuate, with one day’s notice. How many people would you guess will die, just from having to evacuate the hospital? How many old and infirm will die, from having to evacuate the hospital? They aren’t going to cry about the “collateral damage”, they never have.

    Though I do suspect that the Israeli military planners expect 10+X more civilian Palestinian deaths than the count of those who were murdered by Hamas in Israel (past military responses typically have had such ratios), and “inevitable collateral damage” is, as A. Petri noted in her Oct 13 2023 piece, an evil euphemism.

    Due to the mechanics of this, I stand by what I said.

     

     

    This will make the Israelis who do this no better than Hamas. No worse, perhaps, but no better.

  114. 114.

    Alison Rose

    @Brachiator: Fine, if that’s not what you think, I’m happy to be corrected. But my point stands that your WORDING implied otherwise. Don’t call it nonsense as though I’m some ninny who can’t understand words.

  115. 115.

    strange vistor (from another planet)

    They’re going to go into Gaza with ground troops, who are they going to encounter, other than innocent civilians?

    @brantl:  gee, i dunno, the fucking hamas guys?

  116. 116.

    wjca

    @brantl: Why they haven’t said that they are going to assassinate the Hamas leadership and their foot soldiers, and then do it, is beyond me.

    Because announcing their intentions tends to make execution harder.

    It’s worth making such an announcement if you have no such intention in the short term.  Because that can cause them to waste resources on defense against something that isn’t actually planned.  But if you do have fell intentions, it’s better to keep quite until afterwards.  (And maybe not even then, depending on where they were, what your relations are like with the government there, and what impact it would have on those relations.)

  117. 117.

    Adam L Silverman

    @strange vistor (from another planet): Thank you for the kind words. You are most welcome.

    Egypt is under no obligation to help anyone. Because Hamas is a Muslim Brotherhood offshoot, specifically the Palestinian offshoot, Egypt officially does not like them and is not going to help them.

    Beyond that I have no idea what coordination is going on.

  118. 118.

    Jay

    Tip,

    curate your media well.

    A Ukraine supporter has quoted an inflammitory clip from Ezra Levant, formerly of The Rebel, a Reich Wing Canadian and well known liar.

    There is a firehose of propaganda being turned on out there.

  119. 119.

    frosty

    @Suzanne: Little Boots? Reading all this I feel like I’ve been following this blog forever! Glad to see so many commenters from back then still hanging around.

  120. 120.

    bookworm1398

    A few years ago there was a furor in press about stolen valor. What I recall from that is there is no law in the US preventing anyone from wearing a military uniform. The army won’t like it but if I could legally wear a general’s uniform and Medal of Honor to work tomorrow if I wanted.

  121. 121.

    Jay

    @brantl:

    @strange vistor (from another planet):

    Hamas won the tunnel war.

    In the last IDF invasion of Gaza, the IDF was “surprised” by Hamas tank killer teams, hidden bunkers, etc, and took (for the IDF,) relatively heavy casualties.

    There have already been reports of various UN Orgs, since Hamas’s attack, of being surprised to find Hamas bunkers and command centers tunneled under their hospitals, schools and aid centers.

    As in the last IDF/Hamas war, most of the dead are going to be civilians.

  122. 122.

    Geminid

    @Martin: Hamas can can declsre its willingness to recognize the State of Israel within its pre-1967 borders as legitimate, and give up the dream that “Palestine will be free, from the Jordan to the Sea.”

    They have not. Their goal is still a Palestinian State instead of Israel, not one alongside Israel.

  123. 123.

    Jay

    @Geminid:

    Three or four things have already been achieved, and we need to keep those as they are. First, the PA of Mahmoud Abbas, not like Arafat, committed to the agreement, and we don’t want to make it collapse. Second is the internal Palestinian discourse. Everyone understands that no one can ignore the two-state resolution that took place in the 1980s. Even Hamas in 2017 said it was ready to accept a Palestinian state with 1967 borders if it is clear this is the consensus of the Palestinians. It’s very clear that most of the Palestinians, a majority, think there is no other way. Hamas came closer to the PA on this strategic issue. The question today is about the reality of this idea, not about the position of the Palestinians.

    https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-760004

  124. 124.

    TS

    @Another Scott:

    Exit polls suggest Poland’s opposition parties could end eight years of rule by the populist Law and Justice (PiS) party by winning a parliamentary majority in Sunday’s election.

    Always assuming they accept the election results. Seems in recent times this becomes a consideration.

  125. 125.

    wjca

    @bookworm1398: What I recall from that is there is no law in the US preventing anyone from wearing a military uniform. The army won’t like it but if I could legally wear a general’s uniform and Medal of Honor to work tomorrow if I wanted.

    Wear them, sure.  But the instant you said anything, to any member of the military, that could be construed as giving an order, you’d be in big trouble.  Wouldn’t matter if you hadn’t intended to give an actual order, because, as you say, the Army wouldn’t like it that you were wearing a uniform (and rank and medals) that you weren’t entitled to.

    You would probably be on thin ice as well if you were dealing with anyone who was, or even just wished to be, a government contractor.  Especially, but not exclusively, a DOD contractor.  The presumption would be of intent to defraud, rather than innocence.

  126. 126.

    Geminid

    @Jay: That’s one knowledgeable Israeli. Another is Einat Wilf, and she says otherwise.

    Ms. Wilf has knowledge in this area too. She served on Prime Minister Rabin’s team that negotiated the Oslo accords. Wilf writes and speaks a lot about this problem, and in particular the attitude and conduct of Palestinian leaders regarding this question. Interested people people can easily find her work.

  127. 127.

    Palmtrees

    I hope the two aircraft carriers headed to the Mediterranean stay on the look out from an attack from our Israeli “allies” hoping to false flag us into their latest war.

    Remember the USS Liberty.

  128. 128.

    Jay

    @Geminid:

    Hamas has learned the lessons of stating opinions that are vague, political.

    On the opposite side, Israel has not accepted the 1967 Borders and won’t give up the settlements.

    It’s an empass, has been since 1967.

  129. 129.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Gin & Tonic: Fantastic news about PiS doing worse than expected. Any possibility that PiS will try to pull the kind of shenanigans that we have seen in Serbia, Hungary& GOP run states in the U.S., to hold on to power?

  130. 130.

    Geminid

    @Jay: Maybe they are vague in words, but when it comes to actions there was nothing vague about what Hamas did last Saturday. That sure was a strange way to demonstrate a wlliingness to live alongside an Israelis.

    The commenter I responded to was like, what choice did they have? In this case, they could have attacked soldiers and instead they chose to go on a murder spree targeting civilians, and they did not have to.

  131. 131.

    way2blue

    Iron Beam?  Jewish Space Laser?  How did she know!  I’m so confused.  (Here’s hoping it works, and Ukraine gets a few.)

  133. 133.

    Matt Smith

    Hi Adam. Thanks for all of this, always, I read daily and thank you almost never.

    One question. When Ghanem Nuseibeh said a two-front war would be an existential threat: Do you agree with that assessment? I’ve always felt Israel was strong enough (with US support) to win no matter what. Wondering if Israel’s situation is more precarious than I realized.

  135. 135.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: Thank you for the update, considering your busy schedule & the demands of doing the daily Ukraine post.

    I agree that Hamas was trying to goad Israel into vast overreaction, in addition to the fact that Hamas does not see Jews (or Israelis of whatever stripe, or even non-Jewish foreign nationals in Israel) as human beings, & have no inhibition (by morality or enlightened self-interest) on committing atrocities, or victimizing the Gazans they are in charge of.

    However, Israel has had a long history of overreaction to attacks or just perceived threats, & it is not limited to right wing governments, either. Israel has consciously made exacting collective punishment, in response to attacks from its Arab neighbors (state actors or otherwise), as a bedrock for its “deterrence” strategy. Only historically Israel exacted collective punishment relatively strategically & instrumentally, & now the Israeli government seems to have been overcome by bloodlust (at least partially).

    Long before the IDF has entered into urban combat in Gaza, w/ the inevitably horrendous casualties for Hamas, IDF & Gazan civilians, Israel has warned a million Gazans to leave their homes in a very short period of time, decamping to the southern half of the Strip that does not have the resources to house them even on a temporary basis, shut off power, water & food to Gaza. A deal between Egypt, Israel & the US to allow foreign nationals to leave Gaza via the Rafah crossing collapsed because Israel (& the US?) would not accede to the Egyptian demand of allowing humanitarian aid into Gaza. If it was geopolitical rivals/adversaries of the West taking such actions, there will be loud condemnations of war crimes & ethnic cleansing, & rightly so.

    I am glad that the Biden Administration seems to have convinced Israel to resume water supply into Gaza, probably the result of intense behind the scenes warnings & arm twisting. For a couple of days I have been rather disgusted by the readiness w/ which Western governments & politicians sought to “stand w/ Israel” in its moment of deep distress (which is quite right), but neglecting the war crimes & crimes against humanity that Israel has already been committing in retaliation to the Hamas assault, & the eliminationist rhetoric coming from members of Bibi’s coalition government, the Israeli President, & even IDF’s spokespersons. There was an FT article yesterday that relaying the anxiety of EU & European officials at being seen as abetting or acquiescing to Israeli war crimes (& these officials seem to expect that such crimes will be committed) w/ their unreserved statements of support, & have they credibility destroyed in the Global South for decades to come. Yet, few Western governments seemed to be willing to voice these concerns explicitly & fortnightly admonish Israel from such actions.

    Despite being the victim of unprovoked Russian aggression & suffering immense brutality & atrocities, Ukraine has not responded in kind, & has treated Russian POWs humanely. Most of that is credit to the Ukrainians, but surely warning by Western governments that Ukraine answering atrocity w/ atrocity, brutality w/ brutality, would endanger Western support & prospects for NATO/EU accession played a role, too. Western governments have also imposed strict limits on how Ukraine can use the donated weapons. None of this seem to apply to Israel, not since the 80s, at least. Don’t think the double standard is lost to Ukraine or any country outside of Israel & the West.

    As for what other objectives Hamas might have been trying to achieve: for the past few years Israel, Sunni Arab states, the US & the EU seemed to have come to the belief that the Palestinian issue could be contained a box, the status quo perpetuated & out of sight/out of mind, so that Israel & the Sunni Arab states could get on w/ their normalization & alignment against Iran. The surprise Hamas attack has blown these beliefs into smithereens. The Palestinian issue has now returned to the fore of center stage, & Hamas may have seized the initiative & possibly credibility over the issue (however undeserved) relative to the Fatah, just as the Sunni Arab states are suddenly feeling vulnerable (to popular opinion w/in) from Iran seizing the initiative over the Palestinian issue. I am not sure scuttling the Saudi-Israeli normalization was necessarily a specific Hamas objective, but disrupting the ongoing trend of Israeli-Sunni Arab rapprochement certain was. Hopefully, the current conflagration does not evolve into a regional war, but I think we cannot underestimate the possibility that the West Bank will blow up as the IDF marches into Gaza & Gazans die by the tens of thousands, & that the Fatah could lose hold over the pieces of territory left to it by the IDF & the settlers, thus multiplying Israel’s security nightmare.

  136. 136.

    Paul in KY

    As far as Hamas, I don’t think they really have a true military wing, as the Viet Cong did (for example). I think just about all their ‘commandos’ are people who are selected as willing suiciders and they feel they will be dead pretty soon. As such, they just want to kill whatever Israelis they can get their hands on before they get whacked. There is no strategery here, IMO. To me, then, their ‘fighters’ are not true military combatants, but instead would be murderers.

  137. 137.

    Paul in KY

    As far as ‘SSGT’ Mast goes, anyone who has any sense or competence at all (provided they have stayed in Army for the minimum number of months you need to make SSGT), should be able to make SSGT.  I think E-6 (SFC) is where you start separating the wheat from the chaff, leadershipwise.

  139. 139.

    Ken Schulz

    @bjacques

    “if anyone were serious about snuffing out Hamas” they ought to watch The Battle of Algiers. The French identified all the leadership of the FLN, and systematically killed or captured every one of them. Yet Algerians forced the French out and gained independence.

    The Palestinian/Israeli conflict does not have a military solution.

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