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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 602: (Some of) You Have Questions, I (May) Have Answers

War for Ukraine Day 602: (Some of) You Have Questions, I (May) Have Answers

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Art by NEIVANMADE of a Ukrainian painted black and outlined in blood red kneeling in grief with hands covering the face surrounded by the bodies of Ukrainians killed by Russians on a grey background. "Russia Is Committing Genocide Right Now" is across the top center of the image.

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Last night in comments, Sebastian asked:

I wanted to ask you what your professional opinion is regarding the Gaza hospital strike or if you have planned another post on that topic.

The short answer is it is most likely the result of a misfiring PIJ rocket. From what I understand they and Hamas have developed a longer range rocket based on an Iranian adaptation of an older PRC design. They are not, apparently, ready for consistent use. I’ll have much more of this at the bottom of tonight’s update as I want to include what I think are the best open source geospatial imagery analyses that confirm this and those will take up some space. So if you want the full answer to this you all are going to have to actually read the update post not just skip right to Patron!

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Minister of Defense presented a program of action; first steps have already been taken to resolve issues raised by the military – address by the President of Ukraine

18 October 2023 – 21:06

Dear Ukrainians!

In Zaporizhzhia, rescue operations have been ongoing all day at the scene of a Russian missile hit. Part of an ordinary residential building was destroyed – floors three through five in one of the blocks. As of now, five people have been reported dead. My condolences to the families and friends. Another five people were injured and are being provided with the necessary assistance. I am grateful to everyone who is working on the ground and supporting people: the State Emergency Service, medical workers, our police, and utilities.

And I thank all our warriors who are striking back at the occupier and thus bringing justice to Ukraine. This is the foundation of our state’s existence – to destroy the enemy and thus protect people. The more successful our warriors are, the more progress is made at the front, the more significant losses Russian troops suffer, the sooner we will be able to return security to all our cities and villages. To every community – from Sumy to Zaporizhzhia region, from Orikhiv to every other city in our country.

Today I had important phone calls with the Prime Minister of Norway and the President of France. In particular, we discussed the situation on the battlefield, support for our troops, defense cooperation, and the work of grain corridors in the Black Sea. This is important not only for our country, but also for the whole world, for global stability. Special attention, of course, is paid to enhancing air defense and our long-range capabilities, our strength at sea.

We also discussed with the Prime Minister of Norway the start of the work on security guarantees on the basis of the relevant declaration of the G7. I invited Norway to take part in the next meeting on the Peace Formula. With the President of France, we discussed further cooperation at the EU level – both political work to open membership negotiations and macro-financial assistance for Ukraine. Invited both Norway and France to participate in our summit on food security and the “Grain from Ukraine” humanitarian initiative to be held next month.

It is important that our assessments of the situation in the Middle East coincide. I discussed this with both Emmanuel and Mr. Prime Minister of Norway. It is a matter of principle to prevent any further escalation in the Middle East and to save as many lives as possible. All parties must take care of civilians – women and children caught in the middle of the hostilities and shelling. It will be one of the worst scenarios if the number of victims keeps increasing. And it is necessary to prevent such a scenario.

I met with a delegation of the Romanian government. Today, a joint meeting of the governments of our countries took place. This is another important step towards the strategic partnership between Ukraine and Romania. Our cooperation, our formats of interaction are a new force for the entire Black Sea region. For security, for economic development, for the construction of new infrastructure. And I am grateful to our Romanian partners for the real substance of our joint work.

And one more important thing for today.

I held a meeting with the Minister of Defense of Ukraine – he presented his team and his program. The Ministry’s team has been renewed. There are already first steps to address the issues raised by the military. Reducing bureaucracy, simplifying paperwork, all procedures, freeing up commanders’ time for combat work instead of paperwork. There will be more digitalization and clarity in supplying the troops. There should be more readiness for feedback from the military and overcoming piled up problems. I thank everyone in the state system who works for the interests of Ukraine to ensure that the result is seen every day. Every day means more strength for Ukraine.

Glory to all who defend our country! Glory to our strong people!

Glory to Ukraine!

ATACMS!!!!!

Here are the screengrabs:

Screen grab of a Politico article from 2022 quoting US National Security Officer Jake Sullivan regarding concerns that sending longer range missiles to Ukraine would escalate into World War III

Screen grab from 18 OCT 2023 NY Times including headline stating that Putin plays down threat posed by the US providing Ukraine with more powerful, longer range missiles.

At every single decision point in regard to what to send to Ukraine and when, Putin’s ability to instill fear through his Information Warfare campaign into the Biden administration’s senior national security professionals has had a major effect on US decision making. As a result this has slowed down and limited what we have, are, and will supply the Ukrainians, which has prolonged the war, led to far greater death and suffering among the Ukrainians, and increased the instability in Europe. The Ukrainians and our other allies and partners have witnessed all of this, they will not forget it. Especially in light of how quickly we sortied two carrier strike groups into the eastern Mediterranean and started pumping weapons and material out on behalf of the Israeli. The contrast is striking. And it is complicating the US’s strategy to build support against Russia and for Ukraine. The Financial Times has details: (emphasis mine)

Western support for Israel’s assault on Gaza has poisoned efforts to build consensus with significant developing countries on condemning Russia’s war against Ukraine, officials and diplomats have warned.

The reaction to the October 7 attack on Israel by Islamist militant group Hamas and to Israel’s vow to hit back against Gaza has undone months of work to paint Moscow as a global pariah for breaching international law, they said, exposing the US, EU and their allies to charges of hypocrisy.

In the flurry of emergency diplomatic visits, video conferences and calls, western officials have been accused of failing to defend the interests of 2.3mn Palestinians in their rush to condemn the Hamas attack and support Israel.

In the first days after Hamas’s assault, some western diplomats worried that the US was giving carte blanche to Israel to attack Gaza with full force.

That had eroded efforts since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine to build consensus with leading states in the so-called Global South — such as India, Brazil and South Africa — on the need to uphold a global rules-based order, said more than a dozen western officials.

The backlash had solidified entrenched positions in the developing world on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, officials said. They warned that this could derail future diplomatic efforts on Ukraine.

“We have definitely lost the battle in the Global South,” said one senior G7 diplomat. “All the work we have done with the Global South [over Ukraine] has been lost . . . Forget about rules, forget about world order. They won’t ever listen to us again.”

Many developing countries have traditionally supported the Palestinian cause, seeing it through the prism of self-determination and a push against the global dominance of the US, Israel’s most important backer.

Some American diplomats are privately concerned that the Biden administration’s response has failed to acknowledge how its broad support of Israel can alienate much of the Global South.

In the Middle East, many Arabs feel that the US and other western powers have never held Israel to account for its treatment of Palestinians, or paid enough attention to brutal conflicts in Syria, Yemen and Libya.

Russia and its ally China have cultivated warm ties with the Palestinians. Russia’s president Vladimir Putin on Tuesday met Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing.

“What we said about Ukraine has to apply to Gaza. Otherwise we lose all our credibility,” the senior G7 diplomat added. “The Brazilians, the South Africans, the Indonesians: why should they ever believe what we say about human rights?”

Just four weeks before the Hamas assault on Israel, leaders from the US, EU and western allies attended the G20 summit in New Delhi and asked developing nations to condemn Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian civilians in order to uphold respect for the UN charter and international law.

Since last Sunday, many of those officials told the Financial Times they have had the same argument read back at them in demands for condemnation of Israel’s retaliatory assault on Gaza, and of its decision to restrict water, electricity and gas supplies there.

In recent days Russia has sought to pass a UN Security Council resolution condemning violence against civilians in the conflict, without specifically mentioning Hamas. The council rejected its resolution on Monday.

“I mean, let’s be frank. This is a gift from heaven for Russia,” said a senior EU official. “I think it’s damaging what’s happening . . . because Russia is exploiting the crisis and saying, ‘Look, the global order that has been built after the second world war is not working for you,’ and addressing 1bn inhabitants in the Middle East or in the Arab world.”

Arab states, particularly Jordan and Egypt, have pressed western officials to harden their tone on protecting Gaza’s civilians. “If you describe cutting off water, food and electricity in Ukraine as a war crime, then you should say the same thing about Gaza,” said one Arab official.

Much more at the link!

Zaporizhzhia:

Overnight, Russian terrorists attacked Zaporizhzhia with missiles, striking an ordinary five-story residential building.

Eight apartments were destroyed. There are wounded and dead. There may be people under the rubble. Emergency rescue efforts are ongoing. My condolences go out to everyone who lost their loved ones to Russian terror.

The evil state continues to use terror and wage war on civilians. I thank everyone who isn’t silent and is helping us overcome this. We will do everything possible to bring the terrorist state to justice. Russian terror must be defeated.

 

Avdiivka:

The Battle of Avdiivka, the Russian attack’s northern axis near Krasnohorivka.

At least 63 armored vehicles and weapon pieces were visually confirmed by DeepState as lost by Russia without any tangible results.

This is clearly the Vuhledar scale of disaster. And Russia concentrated a very large grouping on both axes in a bid to finally isolate the city in a death trap. It has not happened, with Russia’s force accumulated at such a high price largely exhausted.

Despite a ton of bravado in Z-channels on Telegram, hostilities in the sector are steadily dying down.

The war continues, and this episode is a Ukrainian success.

#Glory

Berdiansk:

Tatarigami has indicated he’s working on a similar analysis for the Luhansk strikes. I’ll most likely include that tomorrow.

Sevastopol, Russian occupied Crimea:

Poima and Pischanivka on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Here are the screen grabs from Dmitri’s tweet that Rob Lee has quote tweeted:

Screen grab of a translation from Russian into English by Dmitri

Screen grab of a translation from Russian into English by Dmitri

Beijing:

Pyongyang, DPRK:

Now to switch gears back to Sebastian’s question. The Israelis use variants of our JDAMs. They are very powerful, make very large impact craters/do a lot of damage, and they are glide directed weapons. They don’t make the same type of sounds that come from rocket engines. In all of the videos of the strike at the Anglican Church funded hospital, you can hear the rocket engines. Also, they don’t make itty bitty little impact craters:

Here’s the link to the British Channel 4 News’ visual investigation of the strike. Unfortunately this is not yet up on their YouTube page and the video posted on their site can’t be embedded here. It is worth your five minutes to watch it!

Here are the two best threads I’ve seen so far doing open source geospatial and imagery analysis of the strike on the hospital. As far as I know neither of the account owners are partisans for or against either side. I’ll start with the shorter one first. First tweet in the thread followed by the rest copied and pasted from the Thread Reader App.

First, I should mention that this thread isn’t a forensic or expert investigation, I’m just sharing what I see and what I’ve seen previously. Nor am I attributing one way or another. Nor does this negate the countless civilians killed in Israel’s campaign. 
Photos of the aftermath show that the vast majority of the damage is from fire. Only 3 cars show any clear sign of kinnetic/structural damage. And for two of them, the general structure remains intact – despite clear damage.Image
Indeed, within 10m of the impact site there are cars which appear mostly undamaged.
Image
Image
This lack of structural damage to most cars is also clear in the IDF released drone fotage from less than 2hr after the explosion. Again these only show 3 cars with structural damage, and cars more than around 10-15m away appearing mostly undamaged.Image
Footage from ground level this morning shows essentially no crater. And very little damage to the building around 20m away from the impact site.
Image
Image
Next I want to highlight one of the things that the IDF claimed showing damage to roofs of hospital buildings around 30-45m away from the impact site. This would be consistent with an object that broke apart in midair, though I wouldn’t view this point as conclusively as others..Image
Namely because the ‘before’ image is from two days prior to the strike, I believe there were reports of the hospital being minorly damaged in strikes during that period so it is possible that the roof damage is not from the same time as the explosion. 
But all in all, the damage we see is consistent with a small impact, with a lot of fuel accelerant that likely caused most of the fire damage, and very little (within a very narrow radius) structural damage. 
Compare the damage from photos of rocket impacts in Ashkelon from last weekend. The only real difference is that this explosion appears to have involved more accelerant (which would track with reporting that this barrage was aimed at Tel Aviv).
Image
Image
Same lack of significant cratering, same structural damage/radius to parked cars. Similar in just a lot of ways. 
Compare this to airstrikes in Gaza which tend to leave a much larger crater and cause a lot more damage, they also almost always leave big deposits of concrete dust after striking a structure, though the construction of this particular hospital could be different.Image
I spent a while looking for an individual IAF airstrike on a singular structure, rather than broad/widespread devestation, and found this in lower resolution imagery. It shows the crater, but also the concrete dust cloud deposits that are around 30m from the impact site.Image

Also see this to show the scale of the structural damage and concrete dust.

Unroll available on Thread Reader
Next I want to address the claimed casualty count of 500+ killed, which seems widely inconsistent with the damage we can see. I am not doubting that civilians were killed, videos show the bodies collected in the hospital courtyard and I have no reason to doubt that. 
It is also more than possible that there were many people in the area. And the casualties could be quite high, especially if people were out in the open and there was falling, burning fuel. 
But 500’s incredibly high number, honestly implausible. Overlaying the area of damage on Google Earth – keep in mind this is mostly from burning cars NOT the explosion – it is 228m2.
This is that sort of crowd density (assuming there were no survivors which is also implausible).
Image
Image
In July 2016 a truck bomb in Baghdad killed ~350, this is the damage it did.
In Oct 2017, a truck bomb in Mogadishu killed 500+, this is the damage it did.
In Oct 2022, a truck bomb in Mogadishu killed ~125, this is the damage it did.Compare any of that to the above.

Image
Image
Image

Someone very kindly sent me higher resolution imagery of the airstrike impact I was talking about in this tweet. This demonstrates all the points I Was trying to make about the damage of IAF airstrikes.

Unroll available on Thread Reader

Image

None of this absolves the IDF from the countless civilians it has killed in this aerial campaign. There is no excuse for the degree of civilian casualties that the IDF considers acceptable, nor of the siege tactics. And no one can deny the extent of devestation brought to Gaza. 
But it seems extremely clear to me, that much (most (all)) of the initial reporting and discussion surrounding this explosion was inaccurate. The discourse and the reaction has quickly overtaken the facts and now it seems that the facts don’t really matter. 
It has also put me in the unenviable position of not being able to fully trust the numbers that come out of the Gazan Health Ministry, considering they are the only source providing numerical figures of the unquestionably numerous casualties in Gaza. 

There is also this claimed audio intercept of communications between Hamas members in the area. I’ve tried to make the above thread accurate without relying on claims from the IDF which are often inaccurate, but this is still worth noting.

More on the ground footage of the scene, also showing the lack of a crater.

Image

Photos being released of the aftermath today shows that the grassy area to the West of the parking lot was full of civilians (blue in the map), a crowd here when the explosion happened could cause considerable civilian death, especially if there was falling fuel.
Image
Image
There is also photos showing damage nearer to the front of the hospital. This wider damage suggests there may have been a larger debris field which coudlve caused damage and casualties.
Despite this being a mass-casualty event, I still highly doubt the 500+ claim.
Image
Image

This video is the first that shows an impact crater. Once again, inconsistent with an airstrike. This crater is ~10m away (& closer to the civilian camp) from where I initially thought the impact was.

Unroll available on Thread Reader

Image
Image

Given a car around 10m away from this impact was flipped by the explosion (which I thought would have meant an almost direct hit) this could further indicate a projectile that broke up mid-air. But this is not something im confident in calling, would love to hear from an expert. 

This video looks pretty conclusive too, showing the hospital blast directly underneath rocket trajectories.

H/t @manniefabian

@manniefabian One other thing I will note, is that it is particularly sneaky of the IDF to release the thermal drone imagery in a way that just barely cuts out the small impact crater (around where the red circle would be). No idea if they did this deliberately, but it certainly does not help.Image
But generally when militaries just crop out a very relevant piece of evidence from their media releases… it’s not great.
See this perennial example.

There’s a few threads gaining some traction that claim to prove an Israeli jet struck the hospital. They’re wrong. Their geolocation is wrong & their timing is wrong.
Here’s a thread where I step-by-step refute their claims.

Unroll available on Thread Reader

The Channel 12 video showing the missiles being fired and the explosion in the hospital under the path can be geolocated to a housing complex in the NW of Netivot (31.439841, 34.573214) and the bearing to the blast matches perfectly with the Hospital

Image
Image
Image

Also, the bearing of the rocket fire (from the very left-hand-edge of the 2nd story of the background home) points almost exactly towards the site identified from radar readouts by the IDF as the launch site for the rockets.Image
It’s now been 24hr since the explosion at the hospital. Despite numerous photographers/reporters at the site today, there arent images of missile/rocket fragments. Given they would conclusively show who is responsible (& given who secures the site), no photos of them is notable. 
Here is a higher resolution image of the blast site via @BBCNews’ verification team which came to many of the same conclusions as this thread. bbc.com/news/technolog…
Image

Here’s the second thread. Same as above, first tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App. The videos don’t seem to make it between the original twitter thread, the Thread Reader App, and then WordPress. So if you want to see those, you’ll have to click through to the Thread Reader App.

Other footage:

2/X

GeoLocation by @Coupsure, @obretix and @YWNReporter.

Independently they came to the same conclusion.
The above footage is showing a rocket fail and breaking up in two pieces, one falling on the hospital.

POV of the video: 31.5139938, 34.4499253

3/X

Unroll available on Thread Reader

Thread by @YWNReporter

4/X

Thread by @COUPSURE :

GeoLocation of the strike at the hospital in this footage.

5/X

Unroll available on Thread Reader

Identification of different buildings visible in the footage:

6/X

Unroll available on Thread Reader

Identification of different buildings visible in the footage:

7/X

Unroll available on Thread Reader

Identification of different buildings visible in the footage:

8/X

Unroll available on Thread Reader

Confirmation by @obretix:

9/X

More information:

10/X

Conclusion:

A missile launched by a Palestinian group exploded mid-air (Reason unknown) and one piece fell on the hospital causing an explosion.

The geolocation and timing of the footage is conclusive.

More information will be added to this thread.

11/XImage

Other footage of the same strike:

POV: 31.566770, 34.537364

GeoLocated by @kr007t

12/X

Unroll available on Thread Reader

GeoLocation:

13/X

Official reaction by IDF regarding the hospital explosion.

14/X

Some people reacting with “there are no groups with such big missiles/rockets”

Example: GeoLocation of Palestinian Islamic Jihad with BADR-3 rockets:

15/Xwilsoncenter.org/article/irans-…

Unroll available on Thread Reader

“Islamic Jihad denied that any of its rockets were involved in the hospital blast, saying it did not have any activity in or around Gaza City at that time”

note: A rocket barrage was launched (end of video) but maybe not by Islamic Jihad.

Source:

16/X reuters.com/world/middle-e…
Image

Important note:

Our conclusions are based on our geolocations:
That doesn’t mean that they are THE truth, just what we think is highly likely based on our geolocations(facts) and logic/reason.

We are geolocators, not official investigators.

Do not take this conclusion as proven fact!

To be sure what really happened different official investigations are needed.

17/X 

More information:

18/X

Unroll available on Thread Reader

About the ‘JDAM’ claim:

The Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) is a guidance tail kit that converts existing unguided free-fall bombs into accurate, adverse weather “smart” munitions.

So the whole ‘listen to the sound’ comparison is irrelevant. Because every JDAM could have another bomb and every bomb has his own sound. (Based on weather, humidity, wind, environment, …)
It’s impossible to compare.

More information:

“JDAM claim”=


19/X 

More information about the JDAM discussion.
(Read also who Justin Bronk is)20/X

A few hours later…

A lot of people don’t seem to understand how OSint works. So little reminder:

OpenSource/OSint based conclusions are based on Open Source information that is provided/found at that specific time.

The facts matter.

After the publication of this thread new information was brought to our attention: we are looking into this new information.
If needed we adapt/update or even delete and restart our thread.
FACTS matter.

Ah yes: We never had more death threats than the ones in the last 8 hours.
Ask yourself the question before believing any of the different involved parties:
What have i seen for evidence that it was A or B that is responsible or do I just believe immediatly what one of the parties is claiming because it fits what i want to believe…

21/X 

IDF published footage, from the location of the hospital, showing burned out cars.
This location matches with the fires visible in other footage.22/X

We were working on the same questions as @Nrg8000 and he did a great job so we are just sharing his thread.

1. The damage in aftermath videos doesn’t lookt to concur with airstrike aftermath.
(UAV footage from IDF and video’s from the scene itself).

2. Based on the same footage:
How can this result in the claimed 500+ killed?

Read his thread 👇


23/X 

More information:

24/X

Another good investigation @Nrg8000 did before we could:

Proving that some of the camera footage spread to show that an IAF fighter is involved, is from another location and time.

25/X

Unroll available on Thread Reader

Image

After looking to all the footage again, based on your feedback, we discovered some more interesting elements.

Lets review the initial footage of the strike step by step again.

We will reupload the video to make sure he isn’t deleted.

You can decide for yourself.

26/X 

The first three seconds gives us a possible roughly direction of launch.
(Not a location, because it’s difficult to estimate the distance)27/X
Image
Image

Here you see the roughly direction, but a launch is more curved. So it should be on the left of the arrow.

Rocket is flying to the left of the hospital.
So how would it be able to hit the hospital?
This we will answer in a few tweets.

28/XImage

IDF released this footage.
Important for us is this quote:”They shot it from the cemetery behind the hospital”

29/X

What is in the direction of our arrow drawn to the potential launch direction:

The big cemetery next to hospital.

30/XImage

But how is it possible that the rocket fell on the hospital, while it ‘passed’ its lateral direction.

Let’s look to the remaining footage.

At 00:05 a little flash is visible, changing the direction of the rocket.

Interception by Iron Dome should be a proper explosion.

31/XImage

At 00:07 a second flash is visible, changing the direction again.
The rocket is now flying back to the right from POV. “returning”The POV seems to be staying the same and the camera footage doesn’t seems to be cut. The flashes are possibly the result of rocket failure.

32/XImage

00:10

The camera never changed nor is there any interruption in the footage, but the rocket is now flying to the right.
Camera is zoomed in resulting in a brighter view.

33/XImage

00:10 – Rocket ‘explodes’

34/XImage

00:10 – Directly after the explosion you see that the explosion occurred in the middle of the rocket.

You see the warhead and booster?/engine? separation.

35/XImage

00:11 –
The warhead is flying ‘to the right’ from the POV → in the lateral direction of the hospital.While the Engine/Booster is falling down.

This would mean that the Engine/booster would hit the ground first on the left of where the warhead would land.

36/XImage

00:16 – First explosion, left of the future right explosion, 6 seconds after separation.

= possible Engine?/Booster? hit the ground?

37/XImage

00:18 – Second explosion, geolocated to the hospital.
To the right of the first explosion, 8 seconds after separation.38/XImage

01:29 – Camera pans out to film another rocket barrage.
(referring to the fact that Palestinian Islamic Jihad denied they launched rockets during this time, but it could be another organisation)This was our investigation of the footage based on the information at hand.

39/XImage

More info:

“As noted by Marc Garlasco, a Military Advisor at PAX for Peace’s Protection of Civilians team, the impact point does not appear to be consistent with the 500, 1000 or 2000-pound bombs used in Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs)”

40/X

That’s enough for tonight!

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Reader Interactions

56Comments

  3. 3.

    oldster

    That Ruzzian report about activity south of the Dnipro has the unmistakable sound of desperation and despair:

    “It’s just that it seems that it was the Russian Federation that launched the SMO, and if there is a plan, it seems that it is our country that should conduct the offensive. We hope this is a clear and specific plan, and not sporadic twitching to emerging threats for the sake of maintaining the positions and titles or respected leaders.”

    Almost comical — let’s hope that the authors wise up enough to bring their units back to Moscow and change the regime.

    Thanks, Adam, for all of the info — a very pic-heavy dump today, but the pictures of the damage at the hospital really do convince me that this was not the result of an Israeli bomb. That’s valuable data.

  4. 4.

    Alison Rose

    So if Ukraine is now using ATACMS and putin hasn’t dropped a nuke, can we rest assured that certain US and other officials will stop wringing their hands about it regarding future weapons deliveries? (This is rhetorical. I know they won’t.)

    The tweet with the rescue workers digging out the kitty — what she said about being human, it’s so true. Obviously, rescuing people has to come first, but the efforts to always save animals too speaks so highly of their humanity and compassion. When we’re talking about cats and dogs, these are very likely people’s pets, and if someone has maybe lost a relative, lost their home, most of their belongings…I can imagine their animal companions would mean even more to them in that moment, and having their cat or dog back in their arms could be something that helps them go on from day to day.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  7. 7.

    Adam L Silverman

    @oldster: I think the riverine attack across the Dnipro will become a an almost immediate case study.

    As for the hospital attack/strike/accident whatever you want to call it, I don’t trust anything the Israeli government says and I don’t trust anything Hamas says. However, the imagery and what we know about the munitions the Israelis use versus those Hamas & PIJ use make it very clear that this was an unfortunate accident that Hamas is going to milk for everything they can. It also doesn’t help that PIJ put the launchers in the cemetery adjacent to the hospital. Rocket went up, had catastrophic failure, came right back down.

  9. 9.

    Gin & Tonic

    20yo Diana and her 23yo husband Danylo. They married last year after Danylo proposed in a Zaporizhzhia bomb shelter during an air raid. today russians slaughtered both of them while there were sleeping in their beds pic.twitter.com/JUyMzuWQF7
    — вареничок.еріставі 🇺🇦🏳️‍🌈 (@maksymeristavi) October 18, 2023

  10. 10.

    Cacti

    IDF: “We don’t target hospitals.”

    WHO: “IDF has targeted 51 Healthcare facilities for air strikes since October 7.”

    Adam: “I believe the fourth conflicting explanation of the IDF.”

    Me: “Adam is a hack who will now ban me for pointing out said hackery.”

  13. 13.

    Doug R

    @Cacti: So why are you still here? It’s obvious we’re not going to change your mind about what happened here, maybe go somewhere else where goalpost moving is the local sport?

  14. 14.

    Martin

    Yeah. I said yesterday I wasn’t buying the IDF explanation, but this analysis is pretty conclusive. I had focused on the held assumption that it was a rocket, and didn’t focus on the assumption of the damage/number of casualties, that this analysis suggests was inflated.

    I’m also not convinced it was an Iron Dome interception. From what I’ve seen, they have a very distinctive profile for how they intercept a rocket, and you don’t see any of that here. Best guess is shitty rocket just failed.

  16. 16.

    Another Scott

    Thanks for the detailed threads, Adam.

    I check AlJazeera daily in my news skimming. I was very disappointed that they seemingly immediately took as gospel the claims that there were 500 dead and that Israel had obviously intentionally bombed the hospital. Accurate numbers, and accurate blame does not travel that fast in the best of times (look at the days and weeks it took to get accurate numbers out of the fire in Maui – and there wasn’t a war going on there).

    Thanks again.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  17. 17.

    oldster

    Cacti, if you came here to find out what happened, then Adam provided a lot of data and photographic that will allow you to make an informed judgment about what happened.

    It changed my mind. I had taken the initial reports at face value, and assumed it was an Israeli bomb. Israel’s denial did not change my mind. But seeing the photographs and videos — especially the picture of the crater and the surrounding cars — did change my mind. That’s what reasonable people do in response to new evidence. You are welcome to arrive at an informed judgment as well, and then to thank Adam for providing new evidence.

    If you came here simply to antagonize Adam and the readers of the blog, then I suggest you take up a new hobby.

  18. 18.

    Victor Matheson

    @Martin: I know nothing about Iron Dome, but I find it hard to believe that it is shooting down rockets on their way up and not their way down. How in the world can anything (Jewish space lasers, excepted) spot the launch, fire an interceptor, and blow up the rocket within 5 or 10 seconds of launch.

    To me that means the rocket failed on its own not thanks to Iron Dome. But obviously don’t believe me.

    More importantly, I do understand that news is literally has the word “new” in it, so time is of the essence, but why in the world would any reputable news organization reprint anything Hamas says about 500 people dying. There is simply no way that happened (again, not that 100 or 50 or 10 or 1 death is that much better). And as an economist, there is tons of good research coming out in the last few years that basically says, the more round the number, the more made up it is.

  22. 22.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Cacti: No I’m going to ban you because once you’re banned it means you’re banned even if you’ve got a new ISP or something to find your way around the blacklist.

  23. 23.

    Anonymous At Work

    How much did Biden’s distrust of natsec “permanent professionals” after Afghanistan and Iraq and “6 more months to turn the corner” play into the decision to provide ATACMS?

  24. 24.

    trnc

    @Cacti: WHO: “IDF has targeted 51 Healthcare facilities for air strikes since October 7.”

    I found the WHO statement about 48 (at the time) attacks on healthcare facilities, but it does not claim they were all carried out by IDF. Do you have a link where they make that claim?

  25. 25.

    Chetan Murthy

    @oldster:

     I had taken the initial reports at face value, and assumed it was an Israeli bomb. Israel’s denial did not change my mind. But seeing the photographs and videos — especially the picture of the crater and the surrounding cars — did change my mind.

    Same here.  I saw reports of 500 dead, and of the hospital being hit and with massive damage.  And (as a commenter at LG&M noted) you don’t get massive building damage with a puny rocket.  But then we saw independently-sourced pics of the damage, and clearly the buildings weren’t badly damaged.  And yeah, no sizable blast crater.  At which point, you start to doubt the death numbers (sadly).

    So, like you, I lean towards “shitty PIJ rocket blew up in flight”.

  28. 28.

    Chetan Murthy

    @chopper: JMM sent an update today, where he basically said “I’m not going to try to judge anything, not going to put out data, only goiing to point at what I think are reliable, careful analysts.”  I think a lot of people are going to have egg on their faces, if the current direction of assessments maintains momentum

    ETA: JMM being Josh Marshall of TPM.

  29. 29.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Martin: @Victor Matheson: @Another Scott: There was no Iron Dome interception. Basically the launch occurred and the rocket almost immediately ate itself and bits and pieces came right down close to where it was launched. As it was launched from the cemetery adjacent to the hospital, it came down on the hospital complex.

  30. 30.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Anonymous At Work: This had nothing to do with nat-sec professionals. This has everything to do with the fact that his senior nat-sec appointees, especially his National Security Advisor, are incredibly risk averse.

  31. 31.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Cacti: Neither Adam nor anyone here is “buying IDF’s 4th explanation”. We are referencing OSINT sources that have demonstrated a level of credibility through their body of work, people who have consistently shown skepticism of Israel’s stated & implicit motivations for the assault on Gaza (as well as the efficacy of the implied Israeli strategy, or lack of thereof), & consistently expressed outrage at Israeli tactics & their inevitable outcomes. Yet, both referenced OSINT sources have emphasized that their anssessments are not meant to be dispositive.

    So we are all trying to make informed judgements based on informed assessments (or the best one can manage under the circumstances) of people we assess to be credible & acting in good faith. That is all we in the public can responsibly do.

  32. 32.

    db11

    @Adam L Silverman: Risk averse in a political sense or a security sense (or both)?

    Oh, and thank you again for your all your efforts here: in the context of two concurrent and consequential wars, your contributions are extremely valuable for those of us trying to make sense of the firehose of conflicting info (and dis-info) out there.

  33. 33.

    YY_Sima Qian

    WRT the FT article (the 2nd in the past few days along similar lines), the West has never had much credibility in the Global South when the former maker assertions about values, morality, rules, & order, because their historical actions have so consistently belied such assertions. However, yes, the stark contrast of Western governments’ rhetoric & actions WRT Ukraine-Russia & Israel-Palestine is a freshly sharp reminder to reinforce their impression that the West only cares about about their priorities & not that of Global South countries, & has pretty much sent the West’s (outside of Japan?)’s efforts in the Global South back to square one.

  36. 36.

    db11

    @Adam L Silverman: That’s what I suspected.

    I would imagine that an overly timid (short-term) approach might actually increase the realization of mid and long-term risks, and/or invoke even more serious eventual consequences than those trying to be avoided.

  37. 37.

    Yarrow

    I turned on the radio when I was in the car. Maybe yesterday, maybe the day before. NPR local station, not sure what show it was. Whatever it was the first thing I heard was someone saying “Attack-ems” and I felt a bit smart because I knew exactly what that was and what the subject was. Thank you, Adam, for your posts and educating those of us know little about all this. Also, it was kind of interesting to hear someone say “Attack-ems” out loud.

  38. 38.

    tobie

    World events get in the way of the best of plans. Kamala Harris went to Ghana and other African nations in March 2022 to try to reset US-Africa relations but then the panic about inflation hit a feverish pitch in the US and foreign aid and engagement got pushed to the back burner. Biden held an informal summit with several Central Asian nations at the UN Gen Assembly meeting in September but then Azerbaijan expelled Armenian communities within its borders. The deal he worked out with Maduro for the resumption of trade in exchange for elections in Venezuela has been completely overshadowed by the conflict in the Middle East.

    I’m not sure what more the US can do. I would like to hear Biden’s speech tomorrow and if he links the war in Ukraine and the Israel/Gaza conflict. Russia’s the overt aggressor in one and  I suspect it’s had a hand in the other. I’ve learned time and again that Biden has a much larger view of international affairs than I ever will. I trust his experience and wisdom.

  39. 39.

    Chetan Murthy

    @YY_Sima Qian: OTOH, Russia (and China) don’t actually *do* anything.  Russia sells arms, sends their mercenaries, installs despots (sure sure, just like the US), and China loads up these countries with debt and not much more.  I mean, when did either of these two countries actually work to save any lives ?

    Sure, the US does lots of bad things.  But they underwrite the UN’s relief efforts, PEPFAR, and lots of other good things.  Which, hey, I guess none of that counts with these people.  B/c hey, the US will always do that, we can kick the US all we want with no repercussions.

  40. 40.

    tobie

    @Chetan Murthy: @YY_Sima Qian: I remember after Sri Lanka defaulted on its debt to China that there was some focus on the crippling debt other countries faced. Maybe the terms of the loans were renegotiated because of this attention. I can’t say. It was only 6 months ago that we were reading articles like this from AP:

    An Associated Press analysis of a dozen countries most indebted to China — including Pakistan, Kenya, Zambia, Laos and Mongolia — found paying back that debt is consuming an ever-greater amount of the tax revenue needed to keep schools open, provide electricity and pay for food and fuel. And it’s draining foreign currency reserves these countries use to pay interest on those loans, leaving some with just months before that money is gone.

  42. 42.

    Bill Arnold

    @db11:

    and/or invoke even more serious eventual consequences than those trying to be avoided.

    The consequence that they are trying to avoid is major-powers thermonuclear war. The risk calculations are always arguable, but the stakes are very high. That reality is why the current Russian Operation Fear[2] Of Thermonuclear War has any serious traction at all.
    One recent estimate, a 2021[1] paper in Nature Food, estimates that the fatalities of a full-scale thermonuclear war could be upwards of 6 billion over a few years, mostly due to starvation. (They mainly focus on a regional war/1-2 billion. Plenty  of arguments about the models involved, but interesting figures.)
    (One could do numerical (not moral) comparisons of that 6 billion (or 1-2 billion) with various historical genocides.)

    [1] Global Famine after Nuclear War (2021/08, Lilia Xia, Alan Robock Kim J. N. Scherrer, Cheryl S. Harrison, Jonas Jaegermeyr)
    [2[ Project Fear, re Brexit. How did Brexit work out?

  43. 43.

    Nelle

    Thank you, Adam, tonight and all the nights.

    I’m nearing the last of my Ukrainian honey that I got when I was there in 2018.  I’ve tried to make it last and only use it for the sleepy milk that I make when I can’t sleep – warm milk, honey, and almond flavoring.  I may just leave the rest in the jar, in order to always have my Ukrainian honey.

    How comfortable I felt when going up the Dnipro, how cheerful those we met.  When I asked what was needed, the bartender said, “guns.  We need guns.”  Since our group was pacifist Mennonites, I don’t think the guns were forthcoming.  But I think of those lovely people and wonder about them now.  The sun slanted down and we had no idea that such destruction was coming.  So I don’t sleep, I worry, then I get up and have some sleepy milk, and look at my jar of Ukrainian honey.

    The village where my father grew up was occupied by Russians in March of 2022.  They are under pressure to take up Russian citizenship and encouraged to spy on one another, just like in the old days.  This summer, many children were removed to Russia.  The region of southern Ukraine was where the Russian Revolution lasted longer than most anywhere else.  There are layers of sorrow through time there.  My father remembered finding a headless body in a ditch, seeing collaborators hung.  He simply said, “I have seen what happens to women and children in war.”  He didn’t sleep welll many  nights.  I was used to waking up at his nightmare screams.

    And now this world inflicts it on more and more children.  There isn’t enough milk and honey in the world to heal this.

  44. 44.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Nelle: Re: Ukrainian honey, I just now googled, and there seem to be a lot of places that sell for delivery.  I wondered if you had thoughts on the stuff they offer ?  Is it the real stuff?  Way too pricey?  Just not as good as what you got in Ukraine?  Just curious.

  48. 48.

    NutmegAgain

    @Nelle: Thank you for this evocative post. I agree that milk & honey is the best at 3 AM when goblins, fears & memories come calling.

  51. 51.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy: The PRC builds these countries the physical infrastructure that remove choking bottlenecks on their development, infrastructure they desperately need, infrastructure that the West & the West dominated Breton Woods institutions have refused to fund since the 80s (just beginning to change in the past few years, precisely in response to the PRC’s BRI). As I said before, the BRI is not Chinese charity or developmental aid (which the PRC does little), even if PRC propaganda often claims so. It is a way for China to recycle its massive USD in flow from its current account surplus into assets w/ better returns, into hard assets (as opposed to paper claims on US Treasury) that help secure Chinese economic supply chains, secure markets for Chinese products, support Chinese industrial policy, secure influence in foreign capitals, and be less vulnerable to forfeiture by a potentially hostile US.

    The infrastructure projects are typically nominated by the recipient country governments, rather than identified & pushed through by PRC entities. The viability & sustainability of these projects largely depended on the governance capacities of the recipient countries.

    Of course, physical infrastructure is only part of any solution to the Global South’ developmental challenges, & not panacea by itself, something Chinese economic diplomats had been rather blind to. The PRC, like Japan before it, has learned the hard way that there need to be more transparency, better governance capacity, & less corruption if the loans the PRC entities made are to be repaid, despite the higher risk tolerance of these entities.

    One problematic feature or BRI project (kind of similar to the dynamic of Chinese Local Government Financing Vehicles funding infrastructure or real estate development w/in the PRC), in that these are long lived assets w/ slow depreciation and long but low annual returns, the benefits they bring are typically seen in the improvement to the larger economy & not from the income streams associated w/ the projects themselves. None will look financially viable when viewed from the accountant’s perspective, but then few infrastructure project anywhere would.

    To mitigate the risk of lending to some of these less stable Global South countries, Chinese policy & commercial banks imposed commercial rates (higher than the multilateral institutions, including the AIIB, & developmental aid from Paris Club lenders, but much lower than the commercial bond holders), w/ shorter payment horizons & short grace periods (hence why they are not “aid”). “Debt Trap” would suggest that the PRC would hold the recipient countries’ strategic hard assets as collateral, but in reality PRC entities have preferred liquid assets & direct taps into recipient countries’ tax revenue to ensure they are not hung out to dry. That exacerbates the financial squeeze on the debt distressed countries during times of economic hardship, such as during the pandemic.

    As Chinese trade surplus dropped in the mid to late 10s, as Chinese lenders faced 10s of billions of USD losses in Venezuela, as PRC entities faced delays & physical danger building out the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, & as the Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka & the Standard Gauge Railway in Kenya became synonymous w/ white elephants, loans by PRC entities to Africa especially have plummeted. The PRC just concluded the 3rd BRI Summit, reinventing the initiative to be smaller, more nimble, w/ all the buzzwords about “green”, “sustainability”, “connectivity”, etc., but still trying to be relevant to the Global South countries.

    If you want to really understand the PRC’s engagement w/ the Global South, the good/bad/ugly (& there are plenty of examples of all 3) read Deborah Brautigam at JHU, Brad Parks at College of W&M, Kevin Gallagher at BU, the China Global South Project, & China Local/Global at Carnegie.

    One thing to keep in mind: the Transcontinental Railroad bankrupted its initial backers (so did the Panama Canal?), but these monumental projects generated value that are dozens/hundred of times of their investment over their lives.

    @tobie: Anyone reading Western MSM have likely heard about the Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka. How many are aware that all PRC entities only account for between 10 – 15% of the country’s overall debt burden, just over that of Japan? Or that nearly 50% of all developing country debt is owed to private bond holders domiciled in London, Paris & NYC? That DC/Brussels/London have done little to coax these private bond holders to join debt relief schemes, preferring to focus their criticism on Chinese lending?

    There are countries that owe nearly 50% of their debt to PRC entities, but they are few & far in between. Sri Lanka & Nigeria are far more representative. There is also the issue that the Global South countries borrowed from PRC entities for physical infrastructure that hopefully would have decades of useful lives. They borrowed from the private bond holders to finance their day to day government operations, which is throwing water into a bottomless pit.

     

    These countries are not getting much from Putin, though.

  53. 53.

    Paul in KY

    @YY_Sima Qian: Sometimes you write (to me) like a Chinese government official. You must be pretty high up in the hierarchy to get saddled with a top 10,000 blog like Balloon Juice…

  54. 54.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Paul in KY: Actually, what I wrote is almost entirely based on Western scholarship. See the academics and institutions I referenced, & not for the 1st time on this blog.

    If I am a PRC official, I would be hewing close to official propaganda – that the BRI can only result in win-win outcomes, anything other claim is pure Western deceit.

    If fact, a PRC official posting on a foreign blog, unless specifically assigned to an external propaganda exercise, is asking to be canned, even if every post is regurgitating official propaganda. High up in the CPC regime hierarchy is a hazardous existence right now!

  55. 55.

    Paul in KY

    @YY_Sima Qian: Would think you would have to throw some minor nits in to establish credibility, even if acting as a PRC propagandist. Well stated though. I do enjoy reading your posts.

  56. 56.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Paul in KY: CPC external propaganda would certainly be more effective that way, but any propagandist throwing nits is vulnerable to criticism during internal power struggles, so you almost never hear PRC officials, media personalities or academics stray from the official line in public settings. They have often become reticent even in private, according to their western interlocutors, much to the detriment of everyone involved.

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