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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 613: Russia Secures a Russian Airfield in Dagestan

War for Ukraine Day 613: Russia Secures a Russian Airfield in Dagestan

by Adam L Silverman|  October 29, 20237:25 pm| 35 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

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Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

It’s important never to forget how many people make efforts to protect our country and Ukrainians – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

29 October 2023 – 20:27

I wish you good health, dear Ukrainians!

First, there is good news from the meeting in Malta – the meeting of advisors on the Peace Formula. A joint statement of the co-chairs of the summit, both basic and unifying, has been agreed upon. This is the right signal. No matter what is happening in the world, the most important thing is unity for the sake of the real power of international law, as this is unity for the sake of justice for Ukraine and all countries and nations that may face aggression.

Second, we are already preparing for important steps planned for the first weeks of November. In general, this November and December are set to be significant for Ukraine. This includes new defense packages and the development of our relations with the European Union, by the way. We are also preparing for international events planned in Ukraine. Our work with partners will remain active.

And third, this is our gratitude. It’s important never to forget how many people – different people – put in their efforts to protect our country and Ukrainians, to preserve Ukraine, the resilience of our state, our society, and each and every one of us. Only on this day did Russian occupiers launch brutal attacks on our Donetsk, Kherson, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia regions. There were missiles and drones too. I thank all our air defense warriors! I thank everyone in the security and defense forces of Ukraine! And today, I want to specifically highlight those people in different regions of Ukraine who, despite all the difficulties, arrive at the scene of shelling at any time of the day, eliminate the consequences of the strikes, clear debris, demine the territory, extinguish fires, save people, and document evidence of Russian terrorism. These are all our employees of the State Emergency Service, all our doctors, emergency response workers, utility workers, our volunteers, our police, investigators, and forensic experts, prosecutors, our sappers, and pyrotechnicians. Everyone who helps. I thank you!

I want to express my gratitude separately to the entire staff of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in Kherson region, especially those who work in the city of Beryslav and other towns and villages that are constantly under attack by occupiers. Bombs, artillery… But our people there are never left without help. Captain Mykola Ilchyshyn, the head of the 6th State Fire and Rescue Unit of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in Kherson region. Oleksandr Chaika, the chief master officer and commander of the detachment of this 6th fire and rescue unit. Yevhen Shatailo, the driver and civil defense service sergeant. Thank you for your bravery, for your dedication to Ukraine!

Zaporizhzhia region. The State Emergency Service of the region – thank you all, everyone who works for the people! I particularly want to mention Sergeant Andriy Nikolaenko, Master Sergeant Oleksiy Svertnev, Major Vitaliy Sheremet, and Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Kutovy. Our firefighters. Thank you, guys, and all your colleagues!

Khmelnytsky region, which Russian troops target with missiles and Shahed drones… I want to acknowledge the work of the 18th and 21st State Fire and Rescue Units of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in Khmelnytsky region. In particular – Serhiy Lykholat, a firefighter and rescue worker, a sergeant. Also, Oleh Mykhailiuk, a master sergeant, also a firefighter and rescue worker. Vitaliy Zakharchuk, a captain and head of the unit. Serhiy Bondaruk, chief master sergeant and commander of the unit. Thank you!

Rescuers who work in Kharkiv region. In particular, the 44th and 54th State Fire and Rescue Units, whose employees were among the first to arrive in the village of Hroza after the terrible attack by Russian occupiers on October 5. During the rescue operation, Sergeant Serhiy Horbenko, Master Sergeants Oleksiy Kuzub and Dmytro Lahutin, and Sergeant Oleksandr Sinchenko helped a lot. Thank you, guys, for your dedication to work!

Thank you to all our people, everyone who remembers that the most important thing is to take care of Ukraine, of Ukrainians, and of each other. To find your place in the national resistance against Russian aggression. To fight for Ukraine. To work for Ukraine. To contribute something of your own to the collective effort of Ukrainians.

Glory to all who are not indifferent! This is so important!

Glory to our warriors!

Glory to Ukraine!

Together with Lieutenant-General Serhii Naiev, Commander of the Joint Forces of the #UAArmy and the commander of the OG, Major General Dmytro Krasilnikov, arrived at one of the positions near the border.

Awarded our soldiers and thanked them for their service. Slava Ukraini. pic.twitter.com/cLxWEPDmR7

— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) October 29, 2023

Last night YY_Sima Qian asked:

Michael Clarke mentioned that Russia is now dipping into a reserve of missiles to strike at Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure ahead of winter again. I haven’t seen you post Ukrainian MOD’s daily AD tallies against Russian ballistic/cruise missiles & drones. Has the Ukrainian MOD stopped such tweets? Is Ukraine running out of interceptors? Or is Ukrainian AD becoming less effective in intercepting these missiles & drones (which seems hard to believe)?

I haven’t posted them because the Air Force of Ukraine primarily posts this information on its Facebook page. I don’t have a Facebook account and, as a result, it is a pain in the ass to access it. They also post it on their Telegram channel, which I can access, so here’s the latest:

This is machine translated from Ukrainian. On the Air Force of Ukraine’s Telegram channel you will also be able to see the most up to date air raid warnings and alerts.

To answer YY_Sima Qian’s substantive question, my understanding from the reporting is that Russia is basically treading water on its munitions. As in it can produce just about enough replacements for what it is using each month. What stockpiles exist are the older stuff. As for Ukraine, I’ve not seen any reporting indicating that they are running out of interceptors, nor that their air defense is less effective. What I have seen reporting on is the concern that should Russia escalate its bombardment, Ukraine would both need more western supplied air defense systems and the US and its allies would struggle to meet the demand for the systems themselves and the ordnance for them. As I’ve written repeatedly, it would be good if the US’s defense industrial base, as well as those of of our NATO, EU, non-NATO, and non-EU allies supporting Ukraine were actually put on a war footing.

The Black Sea corridor:

Станом на сьогодні через Чорноморський гуманітарний коридор пройшло 53 судна, які доставили у світ понад 2 мільйони тонн 🇺🇦 сільськогосподарської продукції та інших вантажів. pic.twitter.com/rnDFDBtaDx

— Ambassador Bridget A. Brink (@USAmbKyiv) October 29, 2023

Makhachkala, Republic of Dagestan, Russia:

As I wrote about in an update earlier in the week, Russian-Israeli dual nationals have been fleeing Israel back to Russia. One of the most recent flights received a very warm reception when it landed in Dagestan.

Day 613 of my 3 day war. Russian forces have liberated a Russian airfield in Russia from Russians.

I remain a master strategist. pic.twitter.com/G1Pdo08V3h

— Darth Putin (@DarthPutinKGB) October 29, 2023

Don’t get the idea this pogrom means that Russians can indeed organise into large groups to attack government owned facilities. pic.twitter.com/itTzSCHFni

— Darth Putin (@DarthPutinKGB) October 29, 2023

Appalling videos from Makhachkala, Russia, where an angry mob broke into the airport searching for Israeli citizens on the flight from Tel-Aviv.

This is not an isolated incident in Makhachkala, but rather part of Russia’s widespread culture of hatred toward other nations, which…

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) October 29, 2023

Appalling videos from Makhachkala, Russia, where an angry mob broke into the airport searching for Israeli citizens on the flight from Tel-Aviv.

This is not an isolated incident in Makhachkala, but rather part of Russia’s widespread culture of hatred toward other nations, which is propagated by state television, pundits, and authorities.

The Russian foreign minister has made a series of antisemitic remarks in the last year. The Russian President also used antisemitic slurs. For Russian propaganda talking heads on official television, hate rhetoric is routine. Even the most recent Middle East escalation prompted antisemitic statements from Russian ideologists.

Russian antisemitism and hatred toward other nations are systemic and deeply rooted. Hatred is what drives aggression and terror. We must all work together to oppose hatred.

 

In 🇷🇺 Makhachkala, locals storm the airport after a plane from Tel-Aviv arrives. They check passports, looking for Israelis. The police don’t interfere. #Israel #IsraelPalestine pic.twitter.com/2mnTBiq1kK

— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) October 29, 2023

Here’s the thread with the details (machine translated from the Hebrew):

זהו, ההמונים בדגסטאן (חלק מפדרציה רוסית) השתלטו על שדה התעופה ועתה הם מחפשים שם יהודים. כנראה שיש ציפיה שהם יהיו עם קרניים וזנב.
זה מה שחוללו סרטוני השחיטה של מחבלי החמאס בדרום, וגם ההסתה האנטי-ישראלית בתקשורת הרוסית.
רוסיה הופכת למסוכנת ליהודים ולישראלים. pic.twitter.com/tV12Qc9CuX

— Ksenia Svetlova كسنيا سفطلوفا (@KseniaSvetlova) October 29, 2023

That’s it, the mobs in Dagestan (part of the Russian Federation) have taken over the airport and now they are looking for Jews there. Apparently there is an expectation that they will have horns and a tail.
This is what the videos of the slaughter of the Hamas terrorists in the south caused, and also the anti-Israeli incitement in the Russian media.

Russia is becoming dangerous for Jews and Israelis.s I updated before, the Red Wings plane landed at another airport near the city, so the rioters did not find what they wanted. But there is no doubt that if a Jew or Israeli had been found, it would have ended in murder.
Dagestan is not the Muslim republic in Russia. It’s worth raising the risk level and posting a warning to those who travel there (yet).

*Is not the only Muslim republic

If only there was a Russian word to describe a violent mob ransacking an area looking for random Jews to harm pic.twitter.com/afJ0vxEBkz

— Yair Rosenberg (@Yair_Rosenberg) October 29, 2023

Nope, doesn’t ring a bell.

Notably, Dagestan is among Russian regions having a disproportionately heavy death toll from the war in Ukraine.
And the airport's antisemitic mob's most hated enemy is not the Kremlin that sends the people of Dagestan to bloodbath — its Ukrainians and now also Jews.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 29, 2023

The ongoing anti-Jewish pogrom in Russia is, of course, no fluke.

It's the result of literally more than a decade of hateful state-run propaganda that most of the world preferred not to see for years.

It's what happens when a dictatorial regime places a bet and allocates…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 29, 2023

The ongoing anti-Jewish pogrom in Russia is, of course, no fluke.

It’s the result of literally more than a decade of hateful state-run propaganda that most of the world preferred not to see for years.

It’s what happens when a dictatorial regime places a bet and allocates gargantuan funds on the nurturing of xenophobia, the constant search for antagonism and enemies without and within — you know, the ones who are to blame for everything.

It’s about all those insane clips from Russian political TV shows that feel like a madhouse going bonkers.

Hatred and tribalism have become an integral part of Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Dirty khokhol swines, degenerate Westerners, dumb Yankees, slow Estonians, fascist Germans, NATO, gays, English island rats, and now also Zionists – they are all enemies, and they owe us, and we’re going to take what’s ours, and the sacred war is the answer.

Nationalistic pro-war Z-channels on Telegram literally drown in slurs toward northern and southern Caucasians, Asians, Ukrainians, etc etc etc.

The hatred of everyone against everyone is the regime’s very foundation. The Kremlin has been playing with fire and using this instrument for way too long and too much.

The bar is being lowered with every step. Down to declaring an entire 40-million European nation “Nazi” and unleashing the worst European bloodbath since WWII.

And now all the hatred and resentment are manifesting themselves a bit out of hand.

How are things with Ramzan Kadyrov and his private army’s increasingly offensive conduct toward Russia’s white Z-patriots?

What I see now tells me the domestic situation in Russia may be much more fragile than we think.

Avdiivka:

AVDIIVKA AXIS /1340 UTC 29 OCT/ Despite heavy and increasing losses, RU renewed 15 unsuccessful attacks. UKR broke up RU offensives in the vicinities of Keramik, Novokalynove, Stepove, Avdiivka, and Tonenke. UKR reports downing a Russian Su-25 strike aircraft. pic.twitter.com/A2SnEB5DPH

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 29, 2023

Found here https://t.co/KNOUQlGLd1

If you know who that is, please let me know.

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 29, 2023

Russian observers discussing Avdiivka. Perspectives are hazy, and bloody (for them).https://t.co/qC9fq9CfqQ pic.twitter.com/Pz2XkS0joV

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 29, 2023

Here’s the screen grabs of Dmitri’s translations:

 

I ♥️ Avdiivka

Before and after Russia decided to "liberate" it. pic.twitter.com/sjd3H27nuS

— UNITED24media (@United24media) October 29, 2023

Krynky, Kherson Oblast:

Three Russian BTR-82A. Near Krynky, Kherson region. By the Birds of Magyar unithttps://t.co/41KZPEYQiKhttps://t.co/M5irTRTPyA pic.twitter.com/C71wdm9i2J

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 29, 2023

#NewsMap
The Ukrainian army liberated parts of #Krynky on the left bank of the Konka in #Kherson oblast.
I geolocated the footage, but won't point to the right buildings for security reasons.
Russian exchanged their commander for the region and vow to regain the village. pic.twitter.com/3bMsVFcqGr

— Julian Röpcke🇺🇦 (@JulianRoepcke) October 29, 2023

Source video 2: pic.twitter.com/RXHEyhUuBf

— Julian Röpcke🇺🇦 (@JulianRoepcke) October 29, 2023

Between Poima and Radensk, Kherson Oblast:

Proofs for @GeoConfirmed and @UAControlMap:
Tank drives around 46.614098,32.872451 and gets hit.
Tank stops and receives an additional hit at 46.6200963, 32.8902122.
Both locations on the T2206 between Poima and Radensk, Kherson Oblast. pic.twitter.com/VOCD4nCXy1

— Arvelleg (@Arvelleg1) October 29, 2023

Soledar:

Source: https://t.co/BoiURRQtVj

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 29, 2023

And here’s the full video from Bohdan Khmelnytsky Presidential Brigade

‘s YouTube page:

From the description below the video:

Experienced soldiers know that positional warfare is primarily about digging and observation. We are going to the observation post of the 4th Mechanized Battalion, where anti-tankers are watching for enemy vehicles.

The Separate Presidential Brigade named after Hetman Bohdan Khmelnytsky (OPBr, military unit A0222) is a military unit of the Land Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and is actively involved in the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Simon Kupar, writing at The Financial Times, dives into western leaders’ failure to understand Putin, take what he was saying and doing seriously, and, as a result, unintentionally appeasing him.

Emmanuel Macron spent years talking to Vladimir Putin about partnerships. In summer 2019, he even invited Putin to the Côte d’Azur to discuss building “a new architecture of security and confidence between Russia and the EU”. Putin was bewildered, given that Macron hadn’t bothered checking beforehand with the other Europeans. “Do you think you’ll manage to convince them?” he asked Macron.

After Russia invaded Ukraine last year, the documentary-maker Guy Lagache asked Macron: “You thought reasoning with Putin would lead to something else?”

“Yes.”

“It didn’t.”

“No,” Macron conceded. In the film, he gazes into the distance, drinks water, then briefly falls silent. “For a moment,” French journalist Sylvie Kauffmann writes of the scene in her newly published history Les aveuglés (“The Blinded Ones”), “Emmanuel Macron gives the impression of finally having understood who Vladimir Putin was.”

Les aveuglés anatomises why the west misread Putin. Kauffmann traversed Europe, interrogating ex-leaders and diplomats, excavating long-buried shouting matches at international summits. I finished her book feeling that, yes, western leaders were often blind to Putin. And like him, they treated eastern Europeans as second-tier nations that needn’t be consulted. But in appeasing Russia from 2008 to 2022, westerners were also pursuing their interests. I suspect they’ll do it again.

Each western country had its own incentive to misread Putin. The French retained a fantasy they were a superpower, dealing head to head with their peers, not just following the US. Germany’s psychologically damaged embrace of Russia was made up of guilt, greed and fear. The Germans, Kauffmann recounts, felt they owed Russia (though not Ukraine, Belarus, etc) for every Soviet killed in the second world war. And German industry craved cheap Russian energy. Economic interdependence brought friendship with France; surely it would work with Russia, too? German leaders imagined that Putin pursued economic rationality, just like they did.

The US simply didn’t care much. Sure, it was affronted by Putin’s invasion of Georgia in 2008. During a panel debate earlier this year, Condoleezza Rice, then-secretary of state, recalled a White House discussion with “the testosterone flying on the table”. But, she said, “We were not going to use American military forces against the Russians.” That always remained true. Little Georgia lacked military force. So did Ukraine in 2014. When Russia invaded Crimea, Kauffmann reveals, the Obama administration instructed Ukraine not to resist. Much of Ukraine’s army in Crimea defected to Russia. Its own defence minister fled to Crimea and took Russian citizenship. His successor told Ukraine’s president: “We don’t have an army.”

What changed between 2014 and 2022 wasn’t Putin or the west, but Ukraine. It built a serious army. Only after it resisted Putin did surprised western countries finally do likewise. Now the battle is for the lands between the two worlds. Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova will either join the west or be recolonised.

But however this plays out, western armies won’t defeat Russia. The country has one military advantage over the west and possibly even over China: it treats its citizens as cannon fodder. The US lost about 7,000 soldiers in two decades in Iraq and Afghanistan and gave up fighting wars. The Russian army lost perhaps 120,000 in the war’s first 18 months and didn’t bother burying many of them.

Young Germans, Americans, Britons and French people aren’t going to die in freezing trenches to save eastern Europe. Angela Merkel, the chancellor who presided over Germany’s addiction to Russian gas, worked from that premise. Even her eastern European critics admit she actually understood Putin. In a wonderful exchange in Kauffmann’s book, he says to Merkel, “Listen, I’ll tell you the truth,” and she replies, disingenuously: “But Vladimir, I hope you always tell the truth.” “Everyone lies,” he retorts. “I lie, you lie, Emmanuel lies, even Mr Zelenskyy will lie, it’s normal.” All western leaders now know Putin lies. Yet, when the time comes, they will try to bully Zelenskyy into laying down arms — let’s not even call it peace — just as then-French president Nicolas Sarkozy bullied Georgia’s leader Mikheil Saakashvili in 2008.

Since the west won’t bring down Putin, it will have to live with an imperialist Russia. It learnt from 1945 to 1990 that it can, even as it knows that eastern Europe cannot. When British soldier Fitzroy Maclean was fretting in 1942 about postwar Yugoslavia going communist, Winston Churchill asked him, “Do you intend to make your home in Yugoslavia after the war?” No, Maclean responded. “Neither do I,” said Churchill. Substitute Ukraine for Yugoslavia, and traces of that western attitude linger: no longer blind, just selfish.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight, so here’s some adjacent material from the 126th Odesa Brigade of Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Forces.

The 126th Odesa @TDF_UA Brigade has revealed its secret weapon: the Ginger Heart-Melter. pic.twitter.com/IERimf7O2Y

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 29, 2023

Open thread!

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Reader Interactions

35Comments

  1. 1.

    RevRick

    October 29, 2023 at 7:34 pm

    Tonight’s national NBC TV news broadcast had extensive coverage of the death of Matthew Perry. About Ukraine or the devastation in Acapulco caused by Hurricane Otis, crickets.

  2. 2.

    japa21

    October 29, 2023 at 7:44 pm

    Relative to the news from Dagestan and the news that Hamas met with Russian leadership and the news of the extreme anti-semitism in Russia, I am positive that the definitely pro-Israeli and anti-anti=semitism members of the Republican party, led by SOH Johnson, will do everything they can to make sure Putin gets whatever he wants.

  3. 3.

    VeniceRiley

    October 29, 2023 at 8:16 pm

    Belated daily thanks, Adam.

    I so wish the world would do more to win this one, and every one in a Benjamin Tallis neo idealist just do it Damnit.

    Got a way to fix the USA that doesn’t involve a few billionaire headsho… Erm portraits?

  4. 4.

    Cameron

    October 29, 2023 at 8:24 pm

    Interesting that Hollande and Merkel claimed that Minsk was always bogus, and they agreed to it just to give Ukraine cover to build up its armed forces.  Now it appears they were clueless about what Putin was all about and just wanted everything to go away.  This is turning into the Rashomon of European diplomacy.

  5. 5.

    Gin & Tonic

    October 29, 2023 at 8:32 pm

    Hey, you know what country *doesn’t* have violent anti-Semitic mobs?

  6. 6.

    oldster

    October 29, 2023 at 8:40 pm

    “There is another option. A political one.”
    Is he hinting at the overthrow of Putin’s regime? Extremely interesting if so.

    The video of the mobs in the airport — that was horrible. Those people were intent on murder.

  7. 7.

    Alison Rose

    October 29, 2023 at 8:45 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: Tuvalu?

  8. 8.

    Adam L Silverman

    October 29, 2023 at 8:47 pm

    @oldster: They’re working on it.

    According to Isakov, a local Jewish lady contacted the police saying she felt unsafe because of antisemitic threats. The police officer she got in touch with refused to help and said: “Well, you know what your people are doing to the children of Gaza.” https://t.co/9B70I8DKWw

    — Dor Shabashewitz (@shabashewitz) October 29, 2023

  9. 9.

    Alison Rose

    October 29, 2023 at 8:47 pm

    “For a moment,” French journalist Sylvie Kauffmann writes of the scene in her newly published history Les aveuglés (“The Blinded Ones”), “Emmanuel Macron gives the impression of finally having understood who Vladimir Putin was.”

    Our children is learning. Maybe.

    Perhaps it’s easy for me to say this, but Christ on a catamaran, how could anyone be in putin’s presence and not feel the chilling waves of evil emanating from him? Even when he smiles, it looks like it’s in anticipation of eating a newborn kitten or two.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  10. 10.

    oldster

    October 29, 2023 at 8:53 pm

    @Adam L Silverman:

    I did not think the old times would return so swiftly. Not there, not here. I was wrong.

  11. 11.

    Bill Arnold

    October 29, 2023 at 8:58 pm

    @oldster:

    “There is another option. A political one.”

    I read that (the English translation) the same way. Then re-read the thread, and still read it the same way.
    Anyone, especially Russian speakers/readers, have a different interpretation?

  12. 12.

    Mike in NC

    October 29, 2023 at 9:08 pm

    Got to admit that ‘Putin’s Pogrom’ has a nice ring to it.

  13. 13.

    PeakVT

    October 29, 2023 at 9:18 pm

    Each western country had its own incentive to misread Putin. The French retained a fantasy they were a superpower, dealing head to head with their peers, not just following the US.

    Motivated reasoning is a helluva cognitive bias, and everybody does it.  It takes real leadership to escape it.  Macron is not such a leader for France.

  14. 14.

    tobie

    October 29, 2023 at 9:38 pm

    I don’t know how much impact this will have but Noga Tarnopolsky reported today that a major tech figure in Israel called on Netanyahu to resign.

    Israeli tech titan Amnon Shashua, CEO of Mobileye, calls for Netanyahu’s ouster. “From the start of the war, the government has been revealed as completely incompetent. When the administration fails miserably over a long period of time, we must cut our losses.”

    https://nitter.net/NTarnopolsky/status/1718689342015594690#m

  15. 15.

    Adam L Silverman

    October 29, 2023 at 10:06 pm

    @tobie: It won’t. He won’t resign. And his coalition can’t agree to a no confidence vote as it would bring down the coalition government. Which means they’d all be out too and they intend to dig in and never leave. Right now Smotrich is looting the Israeli treasury via the Ministry of Education to send money to the ultra-Orthodox, which is who he represents.

    Also, could you imagine Hamas’s thrill if there were suddenly an Israeli election? Every single polling site is a target.

  16. 16.

    YY_Sima Qian

    October 29, 2023 at 10:08 pm

    Thanks Adam for the response! Good to know Ukrainian AD is still holding strong, & that Russia does not in fact appear to have built a reserve of missiles they can use en masse. Good thing Iran & NK have not sold Russia their ballistic & cruise missiles, probably far too valuable to themselves.

  17. 17.

    gene108

    October 29, 2023 at 10:12 pm

    @Alison Rose:

    Perhaps it’s easy for me to say this, but Christ on a catamaran, how could anyone be in putin’s presence and not feel the chilling waves of evil emanating from him? Even when he smiles, it looks like it’s in anticipation of eating a newborn kitten or two.

    1. Dictators have to be extremely dishonest to rise to power and maintain it, which is very alien to leaders of democratic countries, where there’s usually some institutional accountability for blatant dishonesty, such as losing an election.

    2. The first point leads to this second point, which is as shameless liars dictators are good at looking reasonable and understanding and serious about the issues on the table, while lying to the democratic leaders face.

  18. 18.

    oldster

    October 29, 2023 at 10:13 pm

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Presumably the entire political system will be very reluctant to provoke a change of government until the current crisis ends.

    Which gives Bibi further incentive to make sure that the current crisis never ends.

    I hate to think what would have happened had the US been attacked while TFG was in the White House. What would have happened, and what may happen.

  19. 19.

    Adam L Silverman

    October 29, 2023 at 10:20 pm

    @oldster: I expect that despite the formal, public assertions that all the reforms are suspended for the duration of the emergency, that they’ll actually be pursued, as well as others no one had heard of, through the various cabinet ministries.

    As for what would have happened or would happen if the US was attacked or would be attacked while Trump was president, that’s easy. First, once he got through the panic attack, everyone in the US who can could be tied to the perpetrators through ethnicity, religion, and/or national origin would be rounded up as potential internal threats. The borders would be sealed and militarized. Martial law would be declared, as well as several other states of emergency to get around any and all constitutional constraints. All of the National Guard would be immediately federalized under Title 10 to prevent blue state governors using them to resist whatever Trump did. Essentially establishment of a dictatorship with the attack and subsequent state of emergency used as justification.

  20. 20.

    Adam L Silverman

    October 29, 2023 at 10:22 pm

    @YY_Sima Qian: You’re welcome. Anything the Russians get from the DPRK isn’t going to be very useful as we’ve seen reported regarding the surplus DPRK artillery that the Russians are using. As for Iran, the real concern has to be Russia actually setting up production facilities for Iranian designed drones, rockets, and missiles and producing them in sufficient quantities to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense.

  21. 21.

    tobie

    October 29, 2023 at 10:25 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: For all the reasons you state, a vote of no confidence and an election are pretty unlikely to occur right now. Still I don’t think I’ve ever seen the Israeli public this divided at a time of war. Having a leader the public can trust and other governments can talk to would do wonders. Oh well. It’s not going to happen.

  22. 22.

    oldster

    October 29, 2023 at 10:27 pm

    @Adam L Silverman:

    …and then Americans of all races, colors, and creeds would have come together under a sky filled with rainbows to sing kumbaya in a festival of love and reconciliation?

    I mean, I’m not disagreeing with your predictions, I just wanted to skip ahead to the happy ending part. You seem to have left that off your account. Just an oversight, I figure.

  23. 23.

    Chris

    October 29, 2023 at 10:36 pm

    The US simply didn’t care much.

    In the U.S. case, I suspect the unadmitted reason it took us so long to wake up to the Russia threat is that we can’t acknowledge how much of a threat Russia has become today without feeling, on some level, like it means we didn’t win the Cold War after all.  Or if we did, that winning the Cold War didn’t matter much.

    And, well.  Winning the Cold War is pretty much our biggest “America, Fuck Yeah!” moment since 1945 (no, nobody cares about Desert Storm).  Doubly so if you’re a conservative for whom “Reagan won the Cold War!” is one of the great truths of modern history.  If we didn’t win the Cold War, then where does that leave us.

  24. 24.

    Adam L Silverman

    October 29, 2023 at 10:38 pm

    @oldster: I’m not the happily ever after ending front pager.

  25. 25.

    Chris

    October 29, 2023 at 10:43 pm

    Emmanuel Macron spent years talking to Vladimir Putin about partnerships. In summer 2019, he even invited Putin to the Côte d’Azur to discuss building “a new architecture of security and confidence between Russia and the EU”. Putin was bewildered, given that Macron hadn’t bothered checking beforehand with the other Europeans.

    IIRC, De Gaulle had a similar delusional notion that never went anywhere after WWII, for some sort of security compact that involved France and Russia and other continental nations, and only secondarily Britain, and as an absolute last resort, America.

    There’s a Russophile strain in French politics that goes way back.  It originates in the fairly logical premise that Russia is on the other side of Europe and there are other dangerous countries closer to home (mainly Germany) that have their own beef with Russia.  As time goes by it gradually turns into the increasingly irrational belief that France needs to treat Russia as an equal to prove that it doesn’t need to depend on its Anglo-Saxon partners, even as the reality is, it very much does.

  26. 26.

    Chris

    October 29, 2023 at 10:46 pm

    @Alison Rose:

    Perhaps it’s easy for me to say this, but Christ on a catamaran, how could anyone be in putin’s presence and not feel the chilling waves of evil emanating from him? Even when he smiles, it looks like it’s in anticipation of eating a newborn kitten or two.

    In complete fairness, I suspect the problem with being a politician is that you have to deal with people like that constantly.  At some point they all start blending into the background of your life.

  27. 27.

    Cameron

    October 29, 2023 at 10:47 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: No Camelot on the Potomac for you?

  28. 28.

    oldster

    October 29, 2023 at 10:56 pm

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Then I’d like a word with the management, to ensure a proper supply of good news.

    Wait, you mean Cole is the management? Well, there goes any hope of good news.

  29. 29.

    Chris

    October 29, 2023 at 11:08 pm

    But however this plays out, western armies won’t defeat Russia. The country has one military advantage over the west and possibly even over China: it treats its citizens as cannon fodder. The US lost about 7,000 soldiers in two decades in Iraq and Afghanistan and gave up fighting wars. The Russian army lost perhaps 120,000 in the war’s first 18 months and didn’t bother burying many of them.

    Eh.

    On 9/12/2001, George Dubya had more leeway than any President since FDR to ask the country for absolutely anything and get it.  America could’ve put up with a lot more sacrifice after 9/11 than it actually did.  It was never asked to because Dubya made a conscious decision right off the bat that nothing that happened could be allowed to endanger his tax-cutting Reaganite agenda.  He wanted quick wars with lots of good campaign commercials and the troops home for Christmas.  “Go shopping,” as he said.

    By 2008, of course, everything had gone to shit so thoroughly that nobody wanted to hear about Iraq anymore, and people were souring pretty quickly on Afghanistan.  Moment had passed.

  30. 30.

    Adam L Silverman

    October 29, 2023 at 11:35 pm

    @Cameron: No.

  31. 31.

    Adam L Silverman

    October 29, 2023 at 11:40 pm

    @oldster: Sorry about that.

  32. 32.

    way2blue

    October 30, 2023 at 12:27 am

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Whenever you map out the future for us, I’m reminded of the lyrics of Cyril Neville:  “Blues is the truth and that’s no lie.”

  33. 33.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    October 30, 2023 at 4:16 am

    The Russian army lost perhaps 120,000 in the war’s first 18 months and didn’t bother burying many of them.

    That’s  because Putin’s base is the Russian version of Boomers. As long as their pensions aren’t threatened they are all for the war. And as we are seeing in Dagestan, Putin is giving them minorities to take out their anxieties on.

  34. 34.

    AlaskaReader

    October 30, 2023 at 4:29 am

    Thanks Adam

  35. 35.

    The Other Steve

    October 30, 2023 at 4:27 pm

    The attack at the airport in Dagestan was promoted by a telegram channel called Utro Dagestan. They were telling people to prepare to go to the airport and harass Jews about a day before the plane landed.   And then it got out of their control as they were shouting “We said harass!   Not attack!” at their readers.

    Anyway, Telegram is saying they’re going to take the channel down as well as any others that promote attacking people.

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