(Official NSC announcement by tweet)
As I explained in this comment last night:
The actual reporting makes it clear that Bibi has denied there is one and that our Special Envoy, Brett McGurk, is still trying to negotiate one. The NSC spokeswoman also just came out and denied there was an agreement.
The Washington Post‘s headline was bad and the reporting in the article was all over the map. Which is why WaPo changed their headline, their lede, and updated the reporting. It now starts with this:
Israel and Hamas are close to agreement on a U.S.-brokered deal that would free dozens of women and children held hostage in Gaza in exchange for a five-day pause in fighting, say people familiar with the emerging terms.
The release, which could begin within the next several days — barring last-minute hitches — could lead to the first sustained pause in conflict in Gaza.
And proceeds to this, which includes the updated information in the screen grab from the NSC Spokeswoman at the top of the post: (emphasis mine)
“We’ve made some progress recently and have been working hard to advance this, but it remains a volatile situation,” an administration official said Saturday on condition of anonymity. After this article was initially published, National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson tweeted that there was “no deal yet but we continue to work hard to get a deal.”
It retains this section for the original reporting from last night, which makes it clear the Israeli government has not agreed to this: (emphasis mine)
In fiery comments Saturday, Netanyahu said the offensive would continue, even as he defended a decision last week to allow the first steady fuel transfers into Gaza since the start of the war. As Israel has pursued its Gaza offensive, it has cut off all but minimal deliveries of the food, water, fuel and medicine that the enclave’s 2.3 million people depend upon for survival. “For international support to continue, humanitarian aid is essential,” he said. “Because of that, we accepted the recommendation to bring fuel into Gaza.”
This section, which is the same in the original and update reporting, is what really indicates that there was never a tentative deal: (emphasis mine):
Brett McGurk, the White House National Security Council’s top Middle East official, is on an extended trip to the region to try to solidify the hostage release plan, including meetings in Israel and Qatar. Speaking at an international security conference Saturday in Bahrain, McGurk said that negotiations have been “intensive and ongoing.”
Brett McGurk is acting as a special envoy on this. Notice that he does not say that a deal has been reached.
Here’s what The Times of Israel published shortly after the WaPo reported its story: (emphasis mine)
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday said there was heavy international pressure against Israel’s war on Hamas, as he pledged to continue pressing the military campaign in Gaza until the terror group is overthrown and the hostages it seized are returned.
Speaking during a lengthy press conference, Netanyahu also dismissed “a lot of incorrect reports” about imminent agreements to free some or all of the roughly 240 people being held, adding that “as of now there is no deal.”He said that if a deal emerges the Israeli public will be updated.
The premier was later asked if he had passed up a serious deal on Tuesday for a release of some 50 hostages, and if he was insisting that all be released. Netanyahu responded that “there was no deal on the table” and he could not elaborate further.
Here’s what Joyce Karam and Israeli reporter Barak Ravid had to say about WaPo’s inaccurate reporting in real time:
Think headline is misleading.
Lede: Israel, the United States and Hamas are close to an agreement that would free dozens of women and children held hostage in Gaza, in exchange for a five-day pause in fighting.— Joyce Karam (@Joyce_Karam) November 19, 2023
Exactly. Is the no mention of Palestinian prisoners new? The 50 and 5-day pause still there
— Joyce Karam (@Joyce_Karam) November 19, 2023
There is no deal, not even a tentative one. Frankly, I don’t expect they’ll be one and that has to do with the nature of ceasefires, which I’ll address after the jump.
This is adapted from my BlueSky thread on the topic last night:
What people need to realize when they call for a ceasefire or an armistice or even a humanitarian pause, until or unless the parties to the conflict have exhausted themselves or decided they cannot achieve their objectives through fighting and choose to negotiate, the only way to accomplish a ceasefire is by force! I’m not knocking the idea of those things, nor am I trying to crap on the activism/activists & just regular people calling for those things, but the reality is that to achieve a ceasefire now, while both Israel and Hamas want to keep fighting, means it would have to be imposed by force.
People need to recognize that neither the current Israeli government, nor Hamas are going to stop what they’re doing. That means they would have to be stopped. And we need to grapple with what that means.
Specifically:
- Denial of flight/denial of launch. Basically if the IAF puts aircraft up or Hamas launches missiles or rockets, the planes are brought down, the missiles, rockets, & launchers are taken out, & the enforcing party is running a combat air patrol (CAP) 24/7.
- Remember, Hamas puts its launchers adjacent to civilian facilities and residences to try to deter Israel from taking them out. The enforcing party is going to have the same problem that the Israelis have now: how to manage and mitigate civilian harm while destroying legitimate targets.
- Once the airspace is secured, then ground forces will have to be introduced into the theater in order to separate the two fighting parties. This will require overwhelming force. Trying to finesse it with under 200K personnel like in Iraq won’t cut it.
- The ideal force would be a coalition with personnel provided by the Arab & Muslim states with US/NATO backing. That won’t be acceptable to Israel. The Egyptians have made it clear they want as little to do with this conflict as possible. The Saudis have the best demonstration military money can buy. So that won’t work. The Jordanian Air Force is top notch, but King Abdullah isn’t going to send them abroad for the same reason he tries to stay out of every regional conflict: survival. Iraq’s military is needed to keep Iraq intact. Lebanon’s military – and I’ve taught two of their generals – can barely keep Lebanon intact. The Gulf states/Emirates will keep their forces at home because they don’t trust their neighbors – the other emirates and Iran. Pakistan’s military would work, but they won’t deploy them for fear that India will take advantage. The Afghan Special Operations Forces we trained are mostly in exile in Iran. We could pay them to be the ground force, which would be good, but there aren’t enough of them.
- That leaves us with what it always leaves us: the US. The US is the only state with the force structure, capacity, and capability to do this. Even if it pulled in some NATO and non-NATO allies and partners. This is NOT GOING to happen! It isn’t going to happen because the domestic political fallout in the US would ripped the already raw, gaping socio-political cleavages we have completely open.
Imagine if you will what happens the first time the US blows up a Hamas rocket launcher and there’s civilian casualties because of where its placed? Or what happens when the air wings on those carriers in the Med sortie against the Israeli Air Force and brings Israeli fighters down?
I am not advocating against a ceasefire, armistice, or even a humanitarian pause. But what I’ve delineated here are the strategists’ dilemmas of implementing one. Neither side wants to stop what they’re doing, that means they would have to be stopped.
Doing that would be far more catastrophic than what is happening now. I know that sounds harsh and cruel, but it’s the truth. There’s only one actor who can stop this: the US. Doing so is going to be devastating to both parties to the conflict. And it will tear the US apart.
The Israeli-Palestinian dispute was already the wickedest of wicked problems. Forcing the two sides to stop would require the application of overwhelming force to create that cessation between Israel and Hamas. And it would make things worse not better.
Finally, one last point: Mueller She Wrote is NOT a reliable source. I’ve already marked my beliefs to market on the front page that I got the analysis and assessment of what Special Counsel Mueller would do not just wrong, but very wrong! That I allowed my understanding of his history as a take no prisoners, upright career prosecutor and a straight shooting FBI director to color my judgement of the fact that he was both a career protector of the DOJ and FBI as institutions, as well as a lifelong Republican. I was wrong. I have worked very hard to not be wrong on this type of topic since.
Mueller She Wrote has not done this and simply transferred her rose tinted glasses to Jack Smith. Finally, she has seriously credibility issues, which are part of her extensive record of litigation. Here’s just one example: (emphasis mine)
The issue before the Court is when courts should seal court files from public inspection pursuant to Virginia Code § 20-124, and whether it should seal the file in the present case. The Court has generated and considered a list of limiting principles any court may wish to consider to guide the exercise of its statutory discretion to seal a file.
The Court holds the parties in this case rebutted, in part, the strong presumption in favor of public access to their court file. Accordingly, the Court orders parts of the file to be sealed. This Opinion Letter and accompanying Order shall not be sealed….
[The facts below] were derived from the Court’s file and the testimony of Adam Falkoff at the hearing on November 7, 2019. Alison Gill (f/k/a Falkoff) did not appear….On October 11, 2016, Alison Falkoff (“Wife”) filed a Verified Complaint for Divorce in this Court. However, a long-pending divorce and child custody lawsuit was already pending in Florida. Despite this, Wife, in her Complaint, incorrectly swore that she had “not participated as a party, witness, or in any other capacity, in any other litigation concerning the custody of her children in this or any other state or country.” She also incorrectly swore that she did not “know of any custody proceeding concerning her children pending in any other court of this or any other state that could affect the current proceeding.” In reality, the parties were engaged in active Florida domestic relations litigation since February 2013.
Wife nonsuited [i.e., voluntarily dismissed] the Fairfax case on December 6, 2016, after Adam Falkoff’s (“Husband”) lawyers alerted her lawyers to the Florida action. Husband now asks that the Court seal the records in the terminated Fairfax matter.
The Fairfax Complaint was filled with moral and salacious allegations, among other unpleasantries. Husband testified they were all false. He offered documentary evidence to support some of his testimony. Since the matter was nonsuited, the allegations are unproven.
Husband testified he is a consultant of Capital Keys. He did not tell the Court the specific nature of his business but claimed his reputation is critical to obtaining and keeping clients. To promote his business, he highlights personal recognition, including his receipt of the 2018 Ellis Island Award and his inclusion on Washington Life magazine’s “Power 100” list of the “most influential persons” in Washington.
Husband testified Wife has been trying to sabotage his business by sending copies of her nonsuited Complaint—long after it had already been nonsuited—to his clients, associates, and acquaintances. The organization that awarded him the Ellis Island Award revoked his award upon receiving the Complaint. They reinstated his award after he protested, proclaiming the falsity of the allegations. Things did not turn out as well with the “Power 100” list. Husband made the list in 2017 and 2018. However, the magazine told him he was not on the 2019 list because of the Complaint allegations. The magazine disregarded his protests as to the veracity of the allegations.
Husband has fewer clients this year than in the past and avers this is a direct result of Wife’s sending them copies of the Complaint.
To further demonstrate social harm, Husband points to at least one acquaintance who told him Wife recently sent her a copy of the Complaint. The acquaintance had thought the divorce concluded and so it puzzled her. Husband explained the circumstances to defend himself against the salacious allegations. Wife uses the fact that the Complaint is a public record as a sword— she treats it a type of proof text and encourages others to go to the Courthouse to see it for themselves.
Husband is the sole financial provider to his minor children and has sole custody of them. He fears his children will see the allegations and that, if they do see them, they, too, will be harmed….
These are the remarks of the judge explaining why he was sealing part of the judicial record, he explained: (emphasis mine)
The Falkoff file should be sealed, in part, but the Court’s reasons for doing so—including this Opinion Letter—should be public. In this case, the Falkoffs were long engaged in domestic relations litigation in Florida. Knowing this, Wife filed a salacious Verified Complaint of Divorce falsely denying the existence of the Florida action. Thus, the entire Virginia action was based on a foundational misrepresentation. Once Husband’s counsel alerted Wife’s Virginia counsel of the Florida action, Wife nonsuited the action….
The Court … recognizes the strong presumption of openness. The Court discounts the fact that both parties asked the Court to seal the records. Husband is a public figure, owing to his inclusion on the “Power 100” list of the “most influential persons” in Washington, so the parties’ hurdle to seal the record is higher than for most. Nevertheless, the parties’ reasons for sealing the records are particularized and are not stated in the abstract. Husband has lost clients because they learned of the allegations in the Virginia Complaint. He lost recognition important to him—the Ellis Island Award and his inclusion on the “Power 100” list. He was able to reinstate the former award but had to protest to regain it. He was unable to reinstate the latter recognition. In both cases, the awarding organizations told him the Complaint triggered his losses….
Presently, the file contains only the following items: the Complaint, Nonsuit Order, service materials, and the Motion to Seal materials. The Complaint is inherently relevant to the merits of the case; the balance of the materials is not. However, the Complaint is an orphaned pleading. Other than receiving it from Wife, the Court took no action on it other than to dismiss it on the parties’ request to nonsuit it. The Court adjudicated no issues on the merits. Nothing in the file demonstrates the Court’s deliberative process or decision-making….
[Moreover,] the fact that Wife filed the Complaint with an affidavit swearing no similar action was pending in another state even though an action had been long pending in Florida suggests a bad motive by Wife. Linking Husband’s sworn testimony, Defendant Exhibits 8 and 9 [which the Court exercises its discretion to seal], and the fact that the Complaint was dismissed without court action, the Court is led to disbelieve the allegations in the Complaint….
Having considered all the above factors, the Court finds that the file should be sealed in part. The initial filing was improper. The key document in the file—the Complaint—is an orphaned pleading that was never tested by the Court. As a result, the Court’s involvement was truly minimal. There were no rulings on the merits, and nothing in the file illustrates the Court’s deliberative process. Husband introduced credible evidence that the fully open file has caused actual, particularized harm. Based on the November 7, 2019, hearing, the Court has doubts as to the veracity of at least some of allegations contained in the Complaint. The parties rebutted the presumption against sealing.
Ms. Gill is a fantasist and conspiracist. Judge David Oblon of the Virginia Circuit Court has found her to be neither truthful nor credible; she lied to his court. She is grifting off of your hopes and fears. She doesn’t mark her beliefs to market. All of these similar folks – like the convicted human trafficker Beau of the 5th column – are counting on your hope for something positive to happen combined with most people’s lack of subject matter expertise to keep your attention focused on them. To click their like buttons, to subscribe, to “buy them a coffee” or make a donation. They’re not themselves subject matter experts on any of the stuff they opine on. They are selling magic beans. Don’t buy them!
Open thread!
twbrandt
Thanks Adam, for your perspective, as … disheartening as it is. But reality too often sucks.
Mike in NC
There’s a fat orange guy in Florida who’s also trying to sell magic beans. Or is it MAGA beans?
Scout211
It really is hard to tell the difference on social media (and mainstream media, apparently) between fact, fiction, embellishment, wishful thinking, propaganda and grift. My head hurts with all of this. But thank you Adam for bringing up another perspective that will (hopefully) help all of us better negotiate all the noise out there.
My head still hurts but it makes me glad I never started a social media account.
Shalimar
So basically Netanyahu already considers the hostages to be a sunk cost and not worth pausing the revenge campaign against Gazans. Is this really what the majority of Israelis want at this point?
Harrison Wesley
Dr Silverman, do you think there’s anything to be learned for resolving the conflict from the experience of Northern Ireland? I realize they’re not really analogous,but I’m trying to grasp at straws.
Adam L Silverman
@Shalimar: No it is not! My professional assessment at this point, based on how the campaign has been designed and is being undertaken, as well as what Bibi and his government are doing in regard to how they’re (mis) treating the families of the hostages, is that Bibi has written them off. Except to use as pawns either diplomatically or for domestic political purposes. There’s a smart way to design a campaign strategy and plan to get those hostages out and degrade/dismantle Hamas’s leadership and capabilities, what the Israelis are doing is the opposite of that.
Adam L Silverman
@Harrison Wesley: Please call me Adam. The answer to your question is no, for a few reasons. The first is that the Northern Irish are still Irish. The differences are religious sectarian (Catholic versus Protestant) and political (republican vs loyalist) and the two overlapped and reinforced each other. Secondly, significant conflict fatigue had set in within the both the Irish Catholic and Irish Protestant populations creating an opening for moving to a meaningful, if imperfect negotiated settlement. That isn’t the case right now with the Israelis and the Palestinians. If anything the events of the past month and a half have increased the desire for conflict among significant portions of the Israelis and Palestinians.
Harrison Wesley
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks. I was hoping for a less depressing reality. What a dreadful situation.
MomSense
I’m just so sad. I was really hoping that some kind of cease fire or pause could be achieved.
Miss Bianca
Adam, I’m actually around in real time for one of your posts! Thank you as always!
And if you’re on Bluesky now, maybe I’ll have to finally get an account as well. Been holding out for a while to see which way things go…
Adam L Silverman
@MomSense: Biden and his team are working it. Both publicly and privately. That’s a good thing. Whether they will be successful or not, I cannot say. Given what I know of Bibi and his coalition, as well as what I know of Sinwar who is leading Hamas both politically and militarily, I do not expect success.
There is a reason I often write here that hope is not a strategy.
Another Scott
@Harrison Wesley: Personally, I’m still in the “things don’t change, until they do” camp. Unfortunately, sometimes wars are the only thing that gets the attention of politicians and forces them to change and create the opportunity for progress.
“Crisis = Opportunity”, as the old saying goes.
It’s good to see that Biden and Blinken and others are working to make this an opportunity for progress, and not just another disaster.
Nobody knows how this will end, of course. And it may take decades to see actual significant progress for Palestinians (and Israelis who want a different, sustainable future). We’ll have to keep electing people who will push for that progress.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
Dangerman
I should join this Blue Sky thing. Never joined Mastadon. I can’t recall the last time I logged onto Twitter, I mean X, I mean, fuck you, Elon. You are, however, doing the World a favor; confiscatory tax policy. If you have enough to burn 40+ Billion on a popular social site to turn it into Stormfront, you have too much money.
Anyway, if anyone has an invite they wouldn’t mind burning, I have a burner email at:
[email protected]
For the curious, 92404 was where I was born and raised. I don’t go back very often these days except on Memorial Day, maybe Christmas, etc (my Folks are in Riverside National Cemetery). It’s not the same since the Base closed. And whoever named the new commercial airport at San Bernardino with the acronym SBD clearly doesn’t read Urban Dictionary (but it IS fitting).
ETA: If you send me one, perhaps let me know here so I don’t get multiple. Although I could then pass them on, too.
ETA2: Corrected Million to Billion. Brain cramp.
Adam L Silverman
We now know the sourcing for WaPo’s incorrect and misleading article thanks to Arab-Israeli journalist Roi Kais. Here’s the translation followed by his reporting in Hebrew:
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: I don’t think that anyone is arguing that hope is a strategy. Of course, hope alone won’t do anything, but one can put in a lot of hard work and then have hope that the work will pan out. Hope is an attitude. Maybe you don’t find it helpful, but others do.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: Faith is not a plan.
BR
@Miss Bianca:
I am frustrated that bluesky is not public so it creates yet another walled garden and people can’t even read posts without having an account. That makes it a poor replacement for twitter, which for all its warts was at least publicly readable until the adventures of Musk and company.
Baud
@BR:
There’s supposed to be a website soon.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: Same response as above. Spiritually, the Protestants may be right that faith is enough. In the world, good works are needed. Whether paired with faith and hope or not. Faith and hope, however, are what many people need to keep going and do the works.
Rileys Enabler
@Dangerman: sent via email.
if anyone else is in need, email me at salcam at the gmail. I’ve got 4 more to send.
Kay
Ugh. Seems like a huge error by the WaPo. Christ. Mighta wanted to double check that!
Adam L Silverman
@Kay: Especially given we now know the sourcing came from the Saudis.
sab
I think we need to pay attention to bylines. Karen deYoung has been getting things wrong for several generations. The Washington posted published her (shame on them) but she is the reporter with a byline in her name who got this so wrong.
Baud
@Adam L Silverman:
What possible reason would WaPo have to distrust the Saudis?
Adam L Silverman
For anyone interested:
BR
@Baud:
Good. Hopefully then someone will build a Mastodon bridge for it and I won’t have to set up an account to read Adam’s posts.
Adam L Silverman
@Baud: I cannot think of a single one.
Kay
@Adam L Silverman:
I’m disappointed. I was really hoping for some movement.
Ohio Mom
I am sorry this turned out not to be so, mainly because it would help Biden’s re-election chances.
Other than that, my attitude toward all the parties in the region is akin to that of a substance abuser’s family member. Hope they get it together with all my heart, in the meantime, eh.
Adam L Silverman
@Ohio Mom: About that…
Kay
I just realized lying, discredited celebrity journalist Maria Bartiromo still has a job at Fox. Amazing. There’s still Dominion and Smartmatic litigation out there. I guess they’re eager to pay thru the nose to settle – again. She’s probably the second biggest multi millionaire election liar in media.
BR
@Ohio Mom:
What is important to me is that the Biden admin is trying (perhaps in vain but still) to get these intractable things sorted out between the two sides. That’s what they should be doing.
Kay
@Adam L Silverman:
I get the sense they’re aware of it now, at least. I knew it wasn’t going to be popular with Democrats. But it seems like it’s shifting and they know they have a problem.
Damien
Well this is a highly disappointing reality intrusion, but reality all the same, unfortunately. I was sincerely pleased to see even a momentary hiccup in what appears to be Netenyahu’s seemingly maniacal bloodthirst.
Adam, I do have to ask a couple of questions, because I’ve had some arguments recently that were very frustrating because a lot of the points being made felt like bunk but I didn’t have anything to refute.
Have you seen anything about Hamas releasing hostages who then went on to praise their treatment by Hamas? I’m trying not to get any of my news from social media after being burned by the whole beheaded babies debacle, and as someone who (as you say) marks their beliefs to market, you’ve become a trusted source.
Have you seen evidence of ongoing, intentional civilian targeting by Israel? I recognize that in war, especially in a dense, urban area, that some civilian casualties are sadly inevitable, but I’m hearing a lot about intent, which is important to me.
Does this by definition qualify as a war, a genocide, or some third category?
What does Gaza qualify as, a protectorate, a state, an occupation? What is the correct term?
I respect your desire not to express an opinion on some of the matters related to this ongoing conflict, and so I don’t want to get into the subjective weeds, I just want to get some manner of grasp on how to discuss these things with people I care without, without coming across as “I Stand With Israel,” or “Free Palestine,” both of which I think boil down what has to be the most complicated geopolitical issue of the past century (come at me, jackals) into contextless soundbites.
Just to be very clear, my stance is that I want a two-state solution with a just peace for both everyday Israelis and Palestinians; Israel has a right to exist, and to keep most of the land they seized after the various unprovoked wars, but not that which they have since annexed; Hamas should indeed be wiped out; Netenyahu should go to the Hague; right-wing Zionists are making every Jew and Israeli into targets; and it gets so complicated that it gives me a migraine.
That last thing is that only part that I know absolutely for certain
ETA: Nevermind, I just saw your equally depressing Tweet about West Bank escalation, so I guess forget #2.
Adam L Silverman
@sab: It appears to be a recurring problem at many news organizations.
sab
@Adam L Silverman: Unfortunate that voters have three choices not two. Vote for Democrats. Vote for Republicans. Stay home. Choice three is a real problem
ETA My belief is that Biden is supportive of Israel in public and banging heads in private, and that Republicans despise everyone in the Mideast and are waiting for the Rapture.
Adam L Silverman
@Kay: The question is whether anything they do can change the impression that has already taken root.
Fair Economist
@Shalimar:
IMO it’s more that if he stops the hot war, attention turns to the hostages, which is a much more favorable contest for Hamas – they can repeatedly make fairly reasonable requests for the release of hostages, and Netanyahu either gives up his unreasonable policies or faces international and even Israeli disapproval. Plus that focuses attention on the fact that Hamas got so many only because Netanyahu had diverted border defense forces to ethnically cleansing Palestinians on the West Bank – you know, the part of Palestine governed by and organization that is *not* calling for the elimination of Israel.
Ruckus
@Adam L Silverman:
Right to the heart of the matter.
To me, war seems like the worst answer to the worst questions. But this being humanity we often get that worst answer to our question and do our damnest to act like it was exactly what we wanted to hear.
How many wars have been fought for the same reasons we are once again seeing in this conflict? I think it boils down to at least one side saying, but often both – “I’m right and you are wrong and we will fight you to your death to prove it!” Egos often get in the way of human endeviors and have caused wars in the past. Even given hard learned experiences in this area does not mean that everyone learned jack or shit. And no, I do not have an answer on how to make this better. Humans sometimes only learn the hard way. Sometimes only the very hard way. In a world that grows ever more populated, ever more able to communicate, I’d bet that there will always be people that continue to have to learn the hard way, at other’s expense. And some may never learn, even at the very hard end of the scale.
dm
Adam, here’s a question that’s been bothering me since the Israeli military occupied the hospital in Gaza: why not make a (sincere) show of Israeli/other humanitarian medical supplies and personnel arriving at the hospital which is presumably no longer occupied by Hamas, and can now be viewed as “just a hospital”?
Would it be reasonable for the US to lean on Netanyahu to do something like that? Is it completely impractical as the hospital is surrounded by an insurgency?
Forgive me if this is a terribly naive question.
Fair Economist
The situation is bad, but there is one force that’s likely to drive a resolution: Netanyahu’s ongoing atrocities are turning the world against Israel. Even the United States, where recent polling was evenly split between supporting and opposing Israel. Public opinion in Europe is ahead of the US and turning decisively against Israel. At this rate I think Israel is going to face cutoffs of aid soon and eventually arms embargoes. That’s going to force some policy changes.
Another Scott
@sab:
GQP politicians don’t believe in, or care, any more about the Rapture than they do about anything else. They care about power, and using that power to crush their enemies.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
Adam L Silverman
@Damien: Let’s take them one at a time. Then I’m going to go have something to eat.
There have been several proof of life videos released by Hamas bouncing around social media. In a number of them I’ve seen the hostages state they are being treated well, but it is clear they are under duress. Also, the proof of life video released by the Iraqi Shi’a extremist group of the dual citizenship US-Israeli grad student they’ve been holding hostage since last April was one of these. She was clearly scared to death while stating how well she was being treated.
Not to hedge on you, but this is an eye of the beholder problem. Hamas locates its staging areas, some of its command posts, weapons caches, and rocket/missile launchers adjacent to and/or in civilian infrastructure. Sometimes in them, sometimes below them, sometimes in close proximity to them. That means in order to target these things, Israel has to either strike through them or near them, which increases the chances for civilian harm. Additionally, when the intel – both Open Source and declassified/released – winds up being wrong or appearing to be wrong, which is what the al Shifa hospital intel looks like right now, it further muddies the waters. I’ve got open source news reporting going back to 2006 (that was PBS) indicating Hamas uses that hospital as cover for a command post. The question now is why has the open source, let alone the classified intel, been so wrong for 18 years.
There are very specific requirements in international law that have to be met for something to technically be a genocide. My informed professional assessment is that those haven’t been met, however, at this point it is a distinction without a difference. Whether Israel’s formal objectives include cleansing Gaza of Palestinians or not it is happening. And enough cabinet members have come out and either explicitly endorsed this or winked and nudged at it, that as far as popular opinion is concerned it is a genocide regardless of the technicalities. When you add what the settlers are doing in the Armenian quarter, other parts of east Jerusalem, and the West Bank, spurred on by Ben Gvir, Smotrich, their proteges, and assisted by the police and IDF, it just further cements the popular belief that this is a genocide.
Under UN Security Resolutions it, as well as the West Bank and the Golan Heights are formally occupied by Israel. I think these resolutions also include at least parts of east Jerusalem as occupied too.
sab
@Adam L Silverman: Also a recurring problems in blogs reporting on major news outlets reporting. You named Karen deYoung. Others would just say Washington Post. Same with NYT and NPR.. They have some excellent reporters, but their media stars damage the reputation of the good reporters when blogs say NYT reported or NPR reported.
The Economist doesn’t do bylines, so when they fuck up it’s on the whole paper. I don’t feel that way about the NYT, Washington Post or NPR. If a reporter gets a byline, we need to note who in particular reported a story badly. Especially with Karen deYoung who has also been an editor for years.
Adam L Silverman
@sab: No arguments here. Also, the news media, especially the political reporters are going to both sides and horse race all of this to the death of the Republic.
sab
@Another Scott: Maybe for some, but I think you are naive about some of the religious nut jobs. Pompeo, Mike Johnson for example.
Adam L Silverman
@Fair Economist: This is also a major problem. Any deal allows Hamas to further claim success and victory. Even if they are claims of limited successes and victories.
Adam L Silverman
@dm: It isn’t naive, but you’ve got several problems. Bibi and the extremists in his coalition don’t think this way. Additionally, even when they do things like this it would require the news media to accurately report on it. And for people to actually accept that the reporting was accurate.
As for Biden and his team leaning on Bibi and his coalition government to do this, I expect they have been, are, and will continue to do so.
Another Scott
@sab: I don’t care about what they say. I care about what they do, myself.
And, as Dean Baker reminds us, I care even less about reporters talking about what people “think”. Nobody knows what they “think”, we can only go by what they say and do.
To be clear: Yes, some GQP politicians say they are believers in the Rapture and all that. And they may even be sincere about it. But they, like everyone, still pick and choose what they believe about (whatever version) of the Bible. And whatever version of the Rapture that is…
(Insert Emo Philips bit here (3:21).)
Cheers,
Scott.
Anonymous At Work
Adam,
Overall assessment: Is there any reason Hamas or the US would trust Bibi? He’d just use the time to bait Hamas members into breaking Hamas’s promises (even if Hamas was trying to keep them), no matter the cost.
Second, is there any reason Bibi would allow a ceasefire? Hamas would get to redeploy and reposition, the hostages justify the further offensive so long as they are hidden, and Bibi’s survival as PM requires Hamas to murder the hostages rather than the hostages being freed or killed by Israeli bombings.
Damien
@Adam L Silverman: I deeply appreciate your response.
This conflict is a gaping wound in the soul of the world, and I have many opinions about how it got to this place, but it feels like your experience and subject matter expertise is a clarifying force when it all seems impossible and overwhelming.
I don’t know how Israel should have responded to this attack, I don’t know what they should do from here, and it turns my stomach to see some of the things being said by Israel, to Israel, about Israel; and the same three clauses applied to Palestine. It seems like an utterly intractable problem, especially given the very reasonable and depressing points you made about a ceasefire above.
Thank god I live in a legal weed state or I might never sleep again.
Bill Arnold
@Adam L Silverman:
The way I’ve been looking at Israels treatment of Hamas tunnels and underground facilities is one of capabilities (whether actually used, or not, and not saying that this is correct).
For example:
– Cell phones are sensor platforms, including accelerometers and other sensors that can be used for location/dead reckoning. This has been widely explored for years: Smartphone-Based Indoor Localization Systems: A Systematic Literature Review (11 April 2023)
– Israeli companies, with very close relations to Israeli intelligence services, have capabilities for rooting phones and installing whatever spyware they want, including collecting sensor logs for “indoor localization” when internet connectivity resumes to transmit the information. Or even just compromised applications that collect/record sensor data. Or all of the above.
– If Hamas has intelligent, and more important, paranoid comms people (they do), they probably long ago realized that this is a vulnerability, and have been actively attempting to fool any such monitoring including, e.g. with turning off devices when in motion, and leaving them turned on to inject false readings into the Israeli intelligence stream (e.g. visit a subbasement, eat lunch down there), perhaps coupled with deliberately-confusing chatter. (Early on, it would have just been monitoring of standard cellphone location data; once smartphones became dominant, it could be more sophisticated.)
This would also be an attempt to play on Israeli arrogance, which is a thing, though reduced in the intelligence community.
Adam L Silverman
@Anonymous At Work: The US should not trust Bibi, anyone in his coalition, or Hamas/anyone in Hamas.
I don’t think that Bibi is interested in a ceasefire at this time unless Hamas at least hands over all the hostages first.
Hamas wants a ceasefire because that looks like a success/victory for Hamas.
cain
@Adam L Silverman: I think you posted earlier or maybe it was someone else about Armenian Christians and a conflict with developers via Israeli govt.
They seem to have gone stark raving mad and now going after everyone.
trollhattan
@dm: Based on a BBC interview I heard this morning with an IDF commander type, while they occupy the hospital complex itself their premise is they have not yet investigated it fully–he noted they have been as far down as three sub levels.
The expectation is there’s a subterranean Hamas complex yet discovered–the pretext for occupying the hospital to begin with–and so more fighting is expected at the point they find access.
IOW it’s not a safe place, not for civilians, medical staff and especially, patients. The preemies evacuated were just a start and presumably, evacuations will continue with no current plans to restore it back to a working hospital.
The reporter was persistent in asking whether they had been mistaken in believing there’s a command hub underneath the complex and the spokesman stuck with his “wait and see” stance.
Reporters given access to the hospital itself describe utterly ghoulish conditions, so it’s not just supplying water, power and supplies that are needed.
Unanswered is where do these people evacuate to? Nowhere in Gaza is “safe” and Egypt is very reticent about letting anybody into their territory.
Adam L Silverman
@cain: That was me. Read this and this. And the letter I’m posting below:
cain
Which has not stopped. He’s doubling down on that. The mother fucker. It’s no wonder that the lot of us do not want us to fund Israel. I would probably start saying “hold elections or you get nothing from us”
TriassicSands
And what they do is what really matters. People can say anything. What they think may lead to what they “say,” which may or may not be an accurate statement of what they think. In the end, what matters is what they do, which is more likely to be an accurate reflection of what they think. Often it will not be what they have said.
I don’t know what Nancy Mace thinks (if she does), but she says she’s a moderate. Why then does she vote with extremists?
Subsole
@sab:
Unfortunate, because staying home is voting Republican.
We don’t have three choices. We have two, and an illusion.
TriassicSands
Anyone who thinks they can rely on a Post headline to tell them either the truth or to reflect what is in the following article, simply has not read enough Post headlines and their respective articles. The Post’s political reporting is often better than the Times’ (low bar), but their headlines are often garbage. They are much more about click-bait than they are about telling readers what is in an article.
trollhattan
@Subsole: The blowback’s impact can’t be known, but there will be some to be sure. Downtown:
cain
@Adam L Silverman: So, now he’s provoking Christians as well. This man and his people are a menace. I find it difficult to believe that Israelis consistently re-elect this bomb thrower.
The proper response is to completely specifically isolate this man and his cronies. As you infer, he’s going on a playbook that specifically meant to create more chaos.
ETA – not sure how much evangelical support you’re going to get if it looks like you’re against christian churches. But then again, plenty of propaganda from Fox News and others to muddy the waters enough – but if churches start getting into this – it’s going to make Israel unpopular with them, I’m guessing – but then we’re talking about evangelicals so who knows?
Subsole
@trollhattan:
Sigh.
I know hope ain’t a strategy, but goddamn it would be good to have something.
Because I am not liking what I see, lately, as far as American democracy’s mid to long term prospects. Or short term, either, really.
They’re gonna fuck around and hand it back to the GOP, and those bastards are gonna break it too badly for us to fix, this time.
And then we’re all going to have to sit there and listen while the utterly fickle fuckups that are the average voter sit there crying in bafflement about all the damage, with one hand full of dick and the other full of regrets in a world that has time for neither.
bjacques
I’m always going to wonder whether Special Envoy Brett McGurk is any relation to the proprietor of McGurk’s Suicide Hall, an infamous dive featured in “Low-Life”, sociologist Luc Santé’s colorful account of New York’s 19th and 20th century preterite.
cain
@trollhattan: Sounds like our side has completely lost patience with how we traditionally deal with Israel and Bibi is not helping any at all.
I wonder how things are going in Jewish conclaves like Brooklyn?
Kay
But now here’s the NYTimes, 17 minutes ago:
Could fall apart. But have not. Yet. Seems somewhat hopeful.
Harrison Wesley
@Kay: So basically they used many words to say nothing.
cain
@Adam L Silverman: I was reading in the article that the Armenian church unwittingly signed legal papers – and some unnamed priest signed on behalf of the church (and has since been defrocked) – I can’t believe that they would not have reviewed the contract before signing! Unbelievable!
But yeah, they are coming after everyone and pushing them out for Jewish settlers.
Kay
@Harrison Wesley:
I think it’s clear. “Close to reaching a deal” means something. It’s a walk back from “tentative” deal but not all the way back. I think it’s good news.
Adam L Silverman
@cain: The churches represented in the letter are Catholic and Orthodox. The evangelicals don’t actually consider them Christians. So it won’t make a dent.
Harrison Wesley
@Kay: I’m sorry. I wasn’t taking a shot at you. I’m a pretty gloomy person who never thinks a glass might be half full.
Sister Golden Bear
@Dangerman: Check your email.
Adam L Silverman
@trollhattan: The effects that this war, as well as the partially correct/partially incorrect beliefs on what the Biden admin is actually doing, are going to rip the Democratic coalition apart. We are looking at a major alignment happening at an accelerated pace going into an election year where two of the starts with the largest Arab and/or Muslim populations – Michigan and Georgia – will be put into play because of this fallout and subsequent realignment.
Expect and prepare for the worst. Work your butts off to try to prevent it from happening.
Adam L Silverman
@bjacques: I have no idea. I briefed him once back in 2016 when he was the special envoy dealing with ISIS. He was on via video while I was delivering a strategic assessment of the Levant problem sets as a keynote briefing to the Commanding General, command group, senior staff, as many of the rest of the staff of XVIII Airborne Corps as they could jam into the auditorium, and everyone else tuned in at CENTCOM, ARCENT, SOCCENT, etc that needed to here the assessment.
Jinchi
Thanks as always, Adam. I’ve been avoiding the online commentary about the Israeli/Palestinian conflict because it’s so often deeply toxic.
Harrison Wesley
We are in Hallmark movie season,but I’ll be damned if there’s actually a Hallmark movie ending in either the Middle East or Ukraine.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Adam L Silverman:
Sorry, I have to agree with Omnes, Adam
Adam L Silverman
@Kay: That’s not accurate either. I’ve just finished reading Barak Ravid’s latest in Hebrew. Here’s the machine translation:
way2blue
Encouraged to learn that the U.S. is communicating with Hamas with respect to releasing hostages. Adam, you make clear why this plan won’t—any thoughts on how to free the hostages? If commando-style operations aren’t feasible—seems like some sort of trade is more likely. Meanwhile, this quoted sentence jumped out at me:
Which seems to imply that Netanyahu’s preference is to render Gaza uninhabitable—but will temper that urge under outside pressure. Perhaps he’s simply covering his embarrassment at getting played by Hamas—by crushing Gaza.
Jinchi
@Subsole: The average voter has given us a series of wins over the last several cycles.
Let’s not start kicking them before they screw up.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
Harrison Wesley
@Adam L Silverman: The machine translated headline is perfect.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: “Close to a deal” is open to interpretation.
cain
@Adam L Silverman:
I don’t really understand these things. We don’t usually have these kind of divisions in HInduism. It’s always made clear that there are no such thing as a single path to the divine and that every path is valid (eg even if they happen to be Muslim or Christian etc)
I’d think you are Christian simply accepting that Jesus was the son of God and died for your sins.
But yeah, I see you are right when it comes to evangelicals.
Baud
@cain:
Even mine?
trollhattan
@Adam L Silverman:
I expect your summation to be sadly accurate, and implies an open door for our Republican winged monkey faction to fly through come next November.
There’s still time to broker peace, but no recent history indicating the parties at war even want that.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: Sinwar isn’t going to give up the women and children. Also, his forces don’t actually have all of them. Finally, do you know what Israel is going to do when they are returned and both tell of and show signs of abuse? Israel’s response is going to make the past 45 days look like a kid’s party.
Adam L Silverman
@Harrison Wesley: I think that’s supposed to be kidnappees.
cain
@Baud: Especially yours. :D
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@trollhattan:
Why though? Trump is still the same fascist asshole he’s always been and he’s only gotten worse. There’s been several strings of Democratic victories over the past year. I find it incredibly difficult to believe Adam’s predictions
Subsole
@Adam L Silverman:
I see no way to prevent the worst.
The only argument my limited mind can cough up is to tell the American public to go vote Ultra-Maga and see how that works out for them. Which, practically speaking, is a fit of pique and not an actual viable approach.
Also, the dumb fucking ingrates would absolutely go do it again, so… yeah.
Basically, it seems to me we can keep the Jewish bloc, or the Palestinian bloc. Or we can keep neither.
Losing either of those blocs, or both, or losing the third bloc of voters, the ones turned off by the arguments surrounding the issue, will trigger a bunch of folks to sit at home and not vote. Which will lose us the upcoming election. Bye bye democracy.
Or, it will close the door on getting all 3 branches of government, which will prevent us from doing the work we need to do to keep our Democracy afloat before we get turfed out in the next set of elections. Bye bye democracy, but later.
Sorry to be down, but that is how it looks to me. I can see a whole fucking tsunami of worst-case, and a bunch of people exhorting me to prevent it, and not seeing a single goddamned thing I can do.
I can’t protect my country from vengeful fascists if my country just sits at home and sulks every time life doesn’t hand them a fucking ice cream cone. I don’t know what to do when half the army of democracy just storms off in a huff and hands power to people who might be actual fucking demons, because they think hurting the rest of us even worse will somehow fix their life.
Subsole
@Jinchi:
That is fair.
I maybe ought to take a break.
Harrison Wesley
@Adam L Silverman: I’m sure you’re right,but considering the FUBAR status of what’s going down I don’t think the machine version is a bad description.
Omnes Omnibus
@Subsole: It is more than 11 months before the election. Many things are going to happen between now and then. Despairing now is a bit premature.
Subsole
@Baud:
I wouldn’t willingly be part of any faith that didn’t have room for Baud.
cain
@Subsole:
American voters have short memories. Do they not remember how the Iraq war started and all the protests? We still went to war – they won’t listen to anything.
GOP powered govt will be doing national abortion – is it really worth losing your right to your own body because you’re in a pique about Biden publicly supporting Israel?
I do think though that given Bibi playing hardball we should as well. We should at least make some show of resistance. I think people want to see something – even if it is demonstrative that we are not on leash because right now to a lot of Democratic voters it seems like that.
ETA – in any case, I think regardless of the polls we will make the right choice because of the above.
Subsole
@Omnes Omnibus:
That is a fair point.
But the larger issue remains. Sooner or later, the bastards will get through. And what then?
The entire dynamic underlying our current political ecosystem is untenable. This little dance we do where we come in and fix everything the Cons broke as best we can, just so everyone can hand the country back over to that same collection of malignant assholes, who promptly break everything even worse, then yell at us to fix it even better? That ain’t gonna work much longer. Something is gonna give at some point.
I am tired of my country staggering along like a gutshot animal because 40 years of living in Ronald Reagan’s wet dream did not prepare them intellectually to fight a psychosocial cold war with the fucking scum of this earth.
I am watching my species turn its back on the Enlightenment in real time, and I really, really don’t like what I see coming after.
So, yeah. A little despair seems in order. But I’ll get over it. I am not giving up. But every now and then you need to bitch about things, you know?
Like I said, I might need to take a break for a day or two. Calm down a bit.
BruceFromOhio
Thank for pulling this together, Dr. Silverman. As always, much obliged for the analysis and sourcing.
MomSense
@Subsole:
Come sit by me.
Mr. Bemused Senior
@Omnes Omnibus: @Subsole: I go with the rotating tag:
cain
I will say that one thing about all these folks talking about not voting Democratic and what not – I sometimes wonder if they actually care about Palestinians in their hearts or is this more about grievance against the Democratic party? I find a lot of leftists are just angry straight white young men who has absolutely no skin in the game.
As for the Muslims in this country – I dont’ know what to say to them – but the alternative is going to be much worse not just for the Palestinians but for them as well. Trump is going to come back – ANGRY – and he won’t give a shit and more than that – he plans to stay in the presidency till his dying day.
japa21
@Omnes Omnibus: Damn it. You’ve been around long enough to know despair is the only option.
Martin
Adam, do you have a reference to Beau encouraging his viewers to a deal? Because I don’t recall him ever doing that (he hasn’t spoken about this much at all). His latest video talking about the deal lays out a few possibilities of what’s happening including it being bad reporting, details not resolved, and governments lying and gives no opinion on which it might be.
I’m in no way questioning your analysis here, I think it’s dead on, an opinion which has little value given you’re an expert and I’m unquestionably not at any of this.
BruceFromOhio
@BruceFromOhio: Sorry, Adam! Noted for future reference.
Subsole
@cain: American voters do have short memories. And a side effect of that is that we have very little foresight. Witness our current situation.
A functioning memory and the ability to look past one’s feelings would have spared us all a lot of pain, these last five years.
(Granted, a lot of that amnesiac myopia is exacerbated by a click-farming pack of word-procesor jockeys with journalistic pretensions and a biological inability to hold Republicans to any standard including their own…nevertheless the obstacle remains.)
That said, yes, I expect the positively TOWERING fury of women to offset a lot of everyone else’s abject fucking pettiness and stupidity this coming year.
I am not sure it will be enough to carry us as far as we need to go to save the country, but I live in hope. And will do the extremely little I can to help.
Another Scott
Gallup.com:
X = Obama
From December 2011.
DON’T PANIC!
Eyes on the prizes. Keep working and moving forward.
That is all.
Cheers,
Scott.
Subsole
@MomSense: Thank you. I will bring pie. The good kind that doesn’t come with a filter attached.
How about pecan? You like pecan?
Subsole
@Mr. Bemused Senior:
Heh. That is very, very true.
cain
@Subsole: I have a hard time understanding my fellow american’s feelings on anything political these days.
Anne Laurie
Adam, I’m very, very sorry that I let my hopes override my natural instincts in the last post… and particularly that my mistake meant you had to spend a chunk of your Sunday morning doing clean-up patrol.
In the future, I’ll do my best to stay firmly within my lane!
Martin
None of us have any skin in the game. And these are just expressions of anger and frustration that have no other outlet. Threatening to vote is no different than a frustrated employee threatening to quit or a kid threatening to run away. It’s just energy looking for a place to go, and threatening to not vote is well, how we do this. Maybe we also protest, but a lot of these people are already do that as well.
But what materially can be done other than to watch. We can’t evacuate a hospital in Gaza, we can’t evict West Bank settlers (well, the US could do more there given how many of them are Americans), we can’t disarm either side, etc. That feels bad.
So we threaten to withhold a vote, the cheapest and most inconsequential threat because we also don’t control when the election is. We can change our mind next week and nobody will know. We can go in the ballot booth and pull the lever we swore we would never pull and because it’s secret, we can still claim we won’t vote for them.
Relax. Don’t take their threats more seriously than they do.
Subsole
@cain:
I think you have very accurately diagnosed the first group. Angry, posturing folks who are using this as a fashion statement. Libertarians in Marxist drag, essentially.
One of my many, many petty grudges I will not let go of against Bernie is that neither he nor his movement stood up to those clowns until it was far, far too late.
As for Palestinians, I don’t know. I am not Palestinian. I would like to think that they remember the first thing Trump did was try to ban Muslims from the country, and vote accordingly.
But memories are short, here in America. And a wounded heart often strikes blindly.
Subsole
@cain:
Same, my friend.
Same.
Geminid
@Anne Laurie: One problem here is that there are a lot of generalists with sizeble audiences, and some have reinvented themselves as Israeli/Palestine experts. They may be like most Americans and pay little attention to this area when it’s not blowing up, but their audience is the same way.
What the Gills and the Beaus should do is refer their audiences to people like Barak Ravid and other serious journalists, or to a good aggregator like Laura Rozen. But Gill and those similar want to maintain their brand, not enlighten their audience. They are entrepreneurs as much as journalists.
I have seen something similar with Virginia politics in the last few days, with Abigail Spanberger beginning a campaign for Governor and Yevgeny Vindman announcing for her 7th District seat. A lot of newly minted experts in Virginia politics are popping up like mushrooms now, but some of them sound like they are covering this area for the first time.
E.
@Subsole: Don’t worry. Climate change will make all this seem trite in a few decades.
AWOL
@bjacques: Just an FYI: This exceptional writer is now known as Lucy Sante; they have a new book out.
Shalimar
@Anne Laurie: In my opinion that was your lane, aggregating news and opinions from trusted sources for those of us who don’t go as far afield as you do to gather information. It was the Washington Post. If you can’t trust them, what journalism is left? They owe everyone an apology. You did fine
Edit: And I assume Adam would have been here tearing them a new one whether you had posted on it earlier or not. There is no one I know of better qualified to comment on what is going on there.
Another Scott
@Anne Laurie: @Geminid:
[ putting on asbestos suit ]
OTOH, Balloon-Juice is a place to talk about politics and pets and birds and gardening and music and punctuation and stuff. It’s not a peer-reviewed international relations or defense policy journal or conference.
“Hot air and ill-informed banter,” amirite??
We should be able to talk about anything in the news, or not, without feeling that only the greybeards and the folks with letters after their names can have opinions. Having letters after their names doesn’t mean that they are correct. Experts have arguments all the time…
Having arguments and disagreements is a way to find a path toward something approaching the facts and the truth.
[ /asbestos suit ]
Cheers,
Scott.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Geminid:
Do you agree with Adam’s predictions of a realignment resulting from the fallout of this conflict and that the Democratic coalition will be torn apart?
Subsole
@E.:
Lol. Thanks for the perspective.
Almost Retired
@Another Scott: Totally agree. I enjoyed Anne Laurie’s post (as I always do) and the free-spirited discussion in the comments. And I understand that the commenters are not all experts. I also hope it doesn’t become a thing that a front-pager has to do a full criminal and family court records search before citing any sources.
Geminid
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Not neccesarily, but Silverman identifies a real danger. A lot still depends on the course of this war. The longer it drags out the worse the impact on Democrats will be. This has always been a potential wedge issue for Democrats, and a lot of actors intend to drive that wedge in deep.
And this situation could get a lot worse before it gets better. A lot of diplomatic effort being expended by the US and other nations in the region is directed at containing the war geographically. So far, that (and two US carrier groups) have helped limit Hezbollah’s role, but this could change.
In any event, Israel’s Gaza offensive will continue into December, I think. The question is, will it continue into January?
MomSense
@Subsole:
Love it! May need some bourbon to go with it.
surfk9
@trollhattan: I was a delegate to the convention yesterday. The protesters were load and obnoxious. Many um-credentialed protesters were let in a side door by some unknown actor. It took a while for security to get control. The scene out front was really nuts with protesters and counter-protesters going at it both in front of the convention center and down the street at the memorial auditorium. My wife and I walked through the protest to get a drink at the Capitol Garage with no problem though. When talking to a delegate who was sitting next to us at the bar she said that this is a Democratic convention and that there are always protests.
The bottom line was that it was noisy, somewhat disruptive but in the end we voted and then went home although I was originally going to stay for Atty. General Rob Bonta’s lumpia truck, but that got cancelled. Also there a lot fewer hungover looking folks this morning due to the canceling of the hospitality suites
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Geminid:
Appreciate the answer.
Thing is though, what makes people, including American-Muslims/Palestinians think Trump or any other Republican would handle the situation any better? There is only one other alternative besides Biden, and not voting is still in effect a vote for Trump/MAGA Republican. Trump has openly talked about becoming a dictator and creating concentration camps. People close to him have talked about invoking the Insurrection Act on Day 1 if he were elected. This is the same man who put the Muslim Ban into place during his term.
Any other issue they care about, climate change, etc would be set back perhaps permanently and they could become targets in a Trump regime
ETA: I hope this conflict ends soon
MomSense
@Subsole:
Some of the loudest voices didn’t say a damned thing about Assad’s war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide. Not one fucking word. Now they want to blame Biden for a this situation and for not stopping it. But I keep seeing more and more well meaning youngs (many are former students or friends of my kids) going down this “I’m not voting”, “we already have a fascist government so why bother” and I don’t know what to say to them.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@MomSense:
Tell them they haven’t seen anything yet if they think the US government is fascist now, just wait to see what Trump does if he gets elected. The guy has openly talked about setting up concentration camps for “illegals” and nullifying birthright citizenship. Ask them if the GOP can do that, then they can strip anyone of their citizenship at anytime for any reason, for simply disagreeing. I imagine the Insurrection Act and a supine/cooperating GOP would make this easy. Not voting will not help vulnerable populations too
Adam L Silverman
@Martin: This is Beau:
He has no nat sec experience. Depending on which of the bios written of him you read he is either from a military family or has a military background. He has no subject matter expertise in anything he opines on. He’s a convicted human trafficker who is now running a grift. That’s all there is to him.
Adam L Silverman
@Anne Laurie: You have nothing to apologize for and you are most certainly not out of your lane. This place would fall apart without you.
I had honestly planned to do this post this morning anyway. If anything this is my fault. I should’ve just put up a quick post last night about the WaPo reporting right after I had to deal with it in the comments to my Ukraine war update. Instead I went to bed.
The only thing I wasn’t planning was debunking the grifters that are too often referred to because their grift is telling everyone what they want to hear. And not everyone has my gift for quickly figuring out who these people are via open source work.
Mr. Bemused Senior
@Adam L Silverman: Adam, thanks for all your work. When WaterGirl put up her post pointing to “Beau” I viewed it.
Bemused Senior had a very sensitive BS detector. I’m not in her class but I try to be sceptical. I’m glad to see my impression was justified [and perhaps I learned something from her]
Adam L Silverman
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): All the focus group and surveying done clearly indicates that the majority – as in 70% or so – of the Arab American population in Michigan are well aware of the threat of Trump, but are stating that nothing is going to change their minds on this. Most of them are saying they’ll simply not vote for anyone for president. The Arab American population in Michigan is significantly larger than Biden’s margin of victory there in 2020. They’re happy to keep voting for the Democrats at the state and local level, but they’re done with Biden. Whether this also leads them to be done with the Democratic Party is not a sure thing yet.
Cheez Whiz
The thing about this nightmare that most smacks my gob is that there was an explicit and implicit deal in what I’ll call the Netanyahu Plan*, essentially slowly squeeze Palestinians out of existence. The explicit part is we will protect Israel, and the implicit part is when they attack (as any slowly squeezed population is wont to do) we’ll be ready. And they massively failed on both counts. You can argue whether the Plan/policy is bad/good/effective/risky/whatever, but that clearly was the deal. Will the Israeli people shrug their shoulders and mutter about changing horses in the middle of a catastrophe, or try something, anything else? Mother of Mercy, is this the end of Bibi?
*will happily be corrected about any of this.
Adam L Silverman
@MomSense: Actually they claimed all the Assad stuff was fake or a false flag.
Adam L Silverman
@Cheez Whiz: You’re not wrong. However, unless the Israelis actually overthrow their government over this, nothing is going to change. Bibi will never resign. His coalition partners will not support a no confidence vote as that would bring down the government, force new elections, and they’d all be out of the governing coalition. Right now they’re looting the treasury and passing the money to the ultradevout and ultranationalists (Smotrich), arming settlers with M4 carbines the US provided to Israel on military and law enforcement contracts (Ben Gvir), undertaking an extra-legislative remake of the judiciary by stealth using the state of emergency for cover (Levin), scarfing up the Armenian Quarter with a bogus property purchase, and cleansing the West Bank of Palestinians by settlers (Ben Gvir and Smotrich). These assholes only get what they want/are able to do what they’re doing if they’re in the government. So there will not be a no confidence vote. By law the next Israeli election will not be until 2026. So barring something no one can foresee, Bibi and his extremist governing coalition are not going anywhere.
evodevo
@cain: Evangelicals don’t consider anyone other than their particular sect to be “Real Christians”, so anything involving the Armenians isn’t going to hit home with them…
Or…what Adam said…
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Adam L Silverman:
The polls have been wrong before, several times in fact. I don’t put much stock in them anymore. And it’s still nearly a year out. Predictions are impossible at this point
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman:
With respect – sincerely – he calls himself a “journalist”. He does opinion pieces. He’s quite obviously some guy giving his opinions from his basement / garage / shed. He closes with “just some thoughts”. He’s not claiming expertise.
He’s explicitly at least mentioned his conviction. (7:59). Maybe he’s all wrong about helping people de-radicalize themselves. Maybe he learned his lesson from his conviction 15 years ago and is trying to do better. Maybe not. Dunno.
I don’t see anything wrong with us talking about his piece on the Hamas / Israel war (like many others, I didn’t find it very persuasive).
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Ruckus
@Mr. Bemused Senior:
To be a decent BS detector one has to start with the concept that any collection of words has a real possibility of being BS. ANY COLLECTION.
At that point it becomes easier to find out if this whatever is true, possibly true, or BS. And knowing the author’s identity often helps with that, because of course some humans never/almost never just speak, they bullshit, and often on a contentious basis.
Anne Laurie
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks so much, Adam!
Glad you weren’t especially inconvenienced, and (as always) grateful for all the knowledge you share with us all.
Adam L Silverman
@Anne Laurie: Since I’d done most of the work on BlueSky last night, there was no inconvenience at all. If you have an account there you can see that I channeled historic levels of patience – an amount most here would not believe I’m capable of – in trying to explain to a very earnest poster there that there was no deal and that none of the links he was posting at me indicated there was.
Like I wrote, I should’ve just done a quick post before bed debunking the WaPo reporting, so this is on me.
Adam L Silverman
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): These aren’t national polls where we have to worry about them undersampling key Democratic demographics. These are done by John Zogby, who is the preeminent pollster of Arab Americans, is an Arab American and knows the communities very well, and are targeted within key states and municipal areas. Additionally, the focus groups are consistent.
Could they be wrong? Sure. Could these attitudes change? Also, sure. Do I expect they’re wrong or the attitudes will change? No I don’t.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: I can’t speak for anyone else, but I bring the same responsibility I have as a natsec professional to what I do here. Specifically, not to misinform anyone and not to make anyone dumber on a topic. These grifters – Mueller She Wrote, Beau, and all the others – care about one thing and one thing only: mining your emotions for personal profit. I spend a lot of time and effort vetting the material I put in my war updates, especially if they’re from pseudonymous sources so that I will not misinform you or make you dumber.
Just my $.02 cents.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Adam L Silverman:
Why are you so certain? It’s a year out from now. You can’t predict the future. It is unwritten. You’re also underestimating the effect of Dobbs, which hasn’t abated
Adam L Silverman
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Both the surveys and the focus groups ask about Dobbs and the majority of the responses are all a variant of “We don’t care, this is more important to us.” Same with Trump will block Muslims and Arabs from coming into the US and the GOP is proposing stunt legislation to expel all Palestinians from the US even if they’re citizens.
glc
@Shalimar:
Filed under things I would not expect to see in a comment on Balloon Juice. A bit long for a rotating tag though.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Adam L Silverman:
When I brought up Dobbs, I wasn’t just talking about that particular group in Michigan. Abortion rights resonates with a broad swath of the population, pretty much everywhere. They may not matter as much if enough people/infrequent voters turn out to vote in a presidential year because of the threat of Trump/Dobbs. The Isreali-Hamas war is still ongoing and I’m sure emotions are running high still.
Again, this is an election that is over a year out and neither of us can predict the outcome
Adam L Silverman
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Time will tell.
Adam L Silverman
I’m going to walk my dogs, come back and have dinner, and then I’ll do the Ukraine war update.
Tim C.
@Adam L Silverman: And I appreciate that and the effort you put into it. Question I have as someone who I see as being on the same side as me and with deeper knowledge, what would be the better move from your point of view for the Biden administration? Not asking this as a challenge, but as a “what other things are possible?”
surfk9
The gulf of opinion at the California Democratic Party Convention yesterday was huge. A large plurality was pro cease fire. These people represent the activist base.
hrprogressive
I can’t speak to every single aspect of what Beau is doing these days, but comparing him to the fantasy-monger that is Allison Gill doesn’t seem fair, unless there are dots here that I just haven’t seen connected.
I admit I didn’t know about the conviction till literally today. A little shocking, given how the majority of his videos discuss things like building community networks and shining a light on poor police behavior, along with yes, foreign policy stuff.
I can’t recall him ever saying “I am an expert and here is why” quite the same way you do, Adam (IE, you’ve referenced your work and credentials numerous times, so, yeah, there’s a reason we appreciate the work you do) and, I’ve never considered him “an expert”, rather, just a guy who’s found a way to make commentary videos about important, timely subjects, often in a way that should theoretically break through the “both sides bad” lizard brain that a lot of people have been reduced to when discussing, well, frankly anything.
I’m not claiming “he’s never said it” because I’m sure if anyone has the receipts, it’s you.
But I think the ideas he discusses and the way he presents them are, generally speaking, things that people should be discussing on a broader level, especially as those of us who value “not being a fascist theocracy” try to prevent that from happening.
Allison Gill has spent nearly a decade at this point literally giving people tremendous amounts of legalese-inspired-copium to make a lot of people firmly believe that “Trump’s on his way to prison, any second now” in quite the same manner that the fascist right is eagerly awaiting a certain meteorologically-named-event that curiously has never come close to actually occurring.
If you don’t like Beau or think his criminal past should impede anyone from taking some of his thoughts to heart, I mean, that’s fine I’m not planning to try and convince you, I just am a little taken aback by the comparison of someone who clearly has spent a ton of time literally monetizing “The Resistance!!!oneone” and someone else for whom profiting through sleight-of-hand doesn’t appear to be the same raison d’être.
No intention of starting any argument, just kind of shocked, I guess, and thought it was worth offering a perspective.
Thanks again for all your work.
Soprano2
@Adam L Silverman: So these voters are willing to take the chance that TFG will become president again because they think Biden hasn’t done enough to help Palestinians/stop Israel. That seems short-sighted to me, but what do I know. How do they think they can have any influence on the president if they don’t vote for president?
Mousebumples
Adam – late to the thread, but i appreciate this. Specifically the “why a ceasefire is unlikely” walk through, but really all of it is appreciated. Thanks for sharing your expertise!
Adam L Silverman
@Tim C.: The immediate statements regarding no conditions on Israel was the major fumble. Especially because we know they’ve been working behind the scenes from the beginning to try to nudge, push, and pull Bibi and his coalition government into doing things differently. But that big public statement set the narrative. And then the dirtbag left folks went to work to make sure the hook was buried so deep it would never come out.
Adam L Silverman
@hrprogressive: No worries.
I don’t like any of these folks. They’re all working their own grifts. I have a problem with people creating monetizable platforms to opine when they have no expertise. Because that stuff is quickly rebroadcast and then the inaccuracies, let alone the misinformation, disinformation, and agitprop are almost impossible to correct.
ETA: I’m a professional. I don’t bill/charge/accept payment for work I haven’t done and I don’t agree to do work I’m not qualified to do. These people who are all trying to monetize what they’re doing, whether they’re menaces like Mueller She Wrote and the Krassensteins and others of that ilk, parody accounts like that fake Jack Smith account, or just have no actual expertise in the areas they’re opining, irritates my professional ethics.
Adam L Silverman
@Soprano2: They have repeatedly made it clear for the past 45 days that as far as they are concerned Biden is either facilitating Israel committing a genocide on their relatives or is directly doing so himself because of the aid and military material we provide to Israel. This is personally emotional for them in a way that it is hard to explain. There anguish, and the attitudinal change that seems to have resulted from it, is then being weaponized by the dirt bag left and the extreme right/MAGA folks to create further damage.
Adam L Silverman
I’m back from my walk. I’m going to go make and eat dinner and then I’ll get the Ukraine update done.
Geminid
@surfk9: I think the people you are talking about represent a portion of the Democratic base, not the base. At least that’s how it seems back East.
Anyway, I have come to view many “activists” as representing only themselves and each other.
Will
All of this is so depressing it almost makes me not want to vote. I’m not an expert like you, Adam, but everything you have said validated my limited view that this was an incredibly complicated situation requiring a high wire balancing act of delicateness. I’ve been out of town taking care of a family member but I returned to my place in Pittsburgh next to Carnegie Mellon and the University of Pittsburgh. Went on a walk to the local Pamelas on campus and saw direct evidence of how damaging this will be. There was a poster up with Genocide Joe as well as a couple of taped up papers with some of the more toxic rhetoric. All I could wonder is if it is the goal of the Left to destroy the Democratic party. Our candidate is being labeled as someone carrying out genocide by the under 30s and we are going to have to ask them in almost a year to pull the lever for a guy they believe is 100% responsible for the death of babies. I just don’t see how this problem gets solved. Some will argue Biden should LBJ and not run again, but how did that work out for the country? The party would tear itself in the primaries over this issue. Just leaves me depressed that we are doomed to Trump.
Andrya
@Soprano2: I’m not Arab-American but I have been extremely frustrated for years that Democratic administrations profess commitment to the two state solution (in my opinion the only just, feasible, and stable solution to the Israeli-Palestinian problem)… and then deliver NO CONSEQUENCES WHATSOEVER when successive Israeli governments intentionally sabotage the preconditions to the two state solution, insuring that it will never happen. If you seriously want something to happen, and another party sabotages it, the only reasonable response is to deliver consequences that they will not like. (I don’t mean total destruction of Israel, but I do mean serious cuts in aid.)
Although I still vote for the Democrats, I can understand Arab-Americans giving up and saying “they are just leading us on, they will never do anything real for us, I’m done….”
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Will:
We are not doomed to Trump. That is all anecdotal and a year is a long time
Tim C.
@Adam L Silverman: that makes sense. Thank you for the coherent answer. For what it’s worth, that matters my observations as well.
Ohio Mom
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): You have changed — for the better! You used to worry about the future, now you have embraced (what Josh Marshall calls) an ethic of optimism. It is so nice to see, I’m happy for you.
Adam L Silverman
Ukraine war update has posted. It includes an update on the potential Israeli-Hamas ceasefire for hostages.
OlFroth
Fun fact! I was Brett McGurk’s babysitter! (No really, my father and his father were friends, and I used to watch him when my parents went out with his).
Adam L Silverman
@OlFroth: If I ever brief him again I’ll start with that.
Xeny333
Long long time lurker here. First I want to thank Adam for these updates. It is very hard to find reasonably accurate info regarding both conflicts and I find these updates quite helpful in understanding the hell that is going on. But imagine my surprise when I saw my old law school friend and classmate Adam Falkoff mentioned on this site. I have lost touch with him over the years and I gathered he had gotten a divorce from Allison from the subtext of his Xmas cards but I had no idea how bad it was or that she was behind Mueller She Wrote. She has completely reinvented herself. I know that both of them were staunch Republicans back in the day and were very connected in the RNC for years. I understand that he still is but to see her with tattoos and now a Dem, well it defies belief. I would agree with Adam here. There is good reason to be skeptical of her. Btw despite Adam Falkoff being a republican he is a good guy. Small world.