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Meanwhile over at truth Social, the former president is busy confessing to crimes.

Let there be snark.

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

The fundamental promise of conservatism all over the world is a return to an idealized past that never existed.

“I never thought they’d lock HIM up,” sobbed a distraught member of the Lock Her Up Party.

The arc of history bends toward the same old fuckery.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

Fuck the extremist election deniers. What’s money for if not for keeping them out of office?

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

Nancy smash is sick of your bullshit.

Live so that if you miss a day of work people aren’t hoping you’re dead.

He wakes up lying, and he lies all day.

At some point, the ability to learn is a factor of character, not IQ.

I’m starting to think Jesus may have made a mistake saving people with no questions asked.

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

“Cheese and Kraken paired together for the appetizer trial.”

Glad to see john eastman going through some things.

Jack be nimble, jack be quick, hurry up and indict this prick.

… gradually, and then suddenly.

A snarling mass of vitriolic jackals

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… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 644: Air Defense!

War for Ukraine Day 644: Air Defense!

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Russia once again opened up on Ukraine overnight. Fortunately, Ukrainian air defense was up to the task:

What Russia is doing here is a two part theater strategy. The first is to once again try to destroy as much civilian infrastructure as they can during the winter months to demoralize the Ukrainians. Especially if it is electrical generation and transmission infrastructure. The second is to force Ukraine to deplete its air defense stocks. The Russians, like every one else reads the news reporting indicating that Ukraine is beginning to run low on defense material and that the US and our NATO, EU, non-NATO, and non-EU allies are still having trouble getting Ukraine everything it needs and that we are all still having trouble ramping up production fast enough to meet those needs. Putin strategy, one of his means, is to purchase time to achieve his ends. The more Putin can destroy while the US is unable to get a new supplemental funding package through Congress, the more time he buys for himself to freeze the conflict. To consolidate gains made both over the past 21 months and the past 9 and 1/2 years.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

In all regions, it is crucial to have a number of “Points of Invincibility” sufficient for any emergency situation – address by the President of Ukraine

29 November 2023 – 20:41

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today is entirely dedicated to our southern regions. First, Odesa and the region, then Mykolaiv, and afterwards, Kherson. Many issues were raised, almost all of them concerning security, protection of our state and people.

Odesa – a meeting with the military. Air defense for the city, for the region, for Ukrainian Black Sea ports, our export corridor. I want to thank everyone who defends the region and works to increase air defense capabilities in the south.

Today I had the opportunity to present state awards to the most distinguished warriors.

I held a detailed meeting with the heads of all those regions that were most affected by severe weather. These include Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Poltava, and Kyiv regions. Government officials reported – the Ministers of Internal Affairs, Energy, and Infrastructure. I want to extend my gratitude to everyone who has been working these days to restore traffic on roads and electricity supply. To all the rescue teams of the State Emergency Service, National Police, National Guard, municipal services – thank you all.

I instructed to increase the number of repair crews and equipment to promptly restore electricity supply to people. If necessary, the State Emergency Service personnel and power engineers from other regions that have not experienced such problems with the weather will be brought in.

In all regions, it is crucial to have a number of “Points of Invincibility” sufficient for any emergency situation, whether related to weather or security.

Regarding heat supply in Odesa. The regional authorities are ready to help the city with everything it needs to repair the boiler facility, which was damaged due to inclement weather.

I also visited the center for IDPs in Odesa. In particular, for our citizens who were evacuated from the Gaza Strip. I am grateful that people are really taken care of.

Mykolaiv. Meeting with our Danish friends who are working in the city to restore it. It’s a genuinely effective patronage we’ve agreed upon – Ukraine and Denmark. There were also representatives from the diplomatic corps of the countries we invited to join the recovery and patronage programs. I am grateful for such attention to Ukraine, for such belief in Ukraine.

I had a very emotional and important meeting with students from three Mykolaiv universities. The universities that are working and the students that are studying – in Ukraine. For the sake of Ukraine. Adult questions. Honest emotions. Clear, bright eyes. Boys and girls, I thank you for this conversation today.

We are doing everything so that our entire state, all our people, become stronger and always remain free.

And finally, Kherson. Protection of the city, protection of the region. Local officials presented the results of the construction of shelters. The plans that are yet to be implemented.

I held a very substantive and detailed meeting with the military concerning operations specifically in the south. We discussed what is necessary, agreed on goals, and have a clear vision of priorities in communication with partners regarding supplies.

I thank everyone who cares about our country and our people! Thank you, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson. Thank you for this day. Glory to our strong people!

Glory to Ukraine!

The Czech Republic:

Last night in comments Martin asked:

This expansion near Kherson makes me nervous. It feels risky. Is it because it’s far enough behind the eastern front lines that Ukraine has opportunities – forces Russia to distribute their forces more? Or maybe because Russia has done such a good job freezing the action in the east through minefields and trenches that are lacking in the west?

Martin is specifically referring to the expansion across the left bank of the Dnipro into places like Krynky in Russian occupied Kherson Oblast.

Not to sound trite, everything is risky. Ukraine only has so much blood and treasure to go around. That said, a large amount of what is being done is being done by Ukrainian Special Operations specifically prepared to do riverine operations. From what I can glean from the open source reporting, they appear to be proceeding deliberately and carefully. Moreover, they also seem to be making progress. It isn’t flashy, nor is it fast, but they are slowly boring hard word. In addition to the territorial gains and their operations fixing a certain amount of Russian forces in place to try to hold the left bank, these operations have strategic morale implications. Slow, steady progress reclaiming Ukrainian territory that is under Russian occupation is still progress. It shows the Ukrainians that despite the summer and fall counteroffensive not having a major breakthrough like those of Fall 2022, progress is still being made. And it shows the rest of the world, including the Russians, that you can slow the Ukrainians down, but you can’t stop them.

Speaking of Ukrainian SOF operating somewhere in Kherson Oblast:

Obligatory:

And speaking of Krynky, the left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Magyar’s Birds have struck again!

Last I read, Magyar’s Birds were operating across the left bank of the Dnipro. So the Ukrainian SOF riverine forces appear to have drone support.

Also, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Here’s the whole video:

Irpin:

Donetsk:

Budonivskyi, Russian occupied Donestk Oblast:

Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

Here’s the machine translation of the original tweet:

Excellent work of the 128th OGSHBr — and another machine of the complex receives significant damage, and the crew replenishes the statistics of the GS.
Destruction of air defense systems is not just preemptive work. This is the “clearing” of an entire section of the front, on which dozens of our UAVs will be able to operate with impunity for a certain period of time.

Russian occupied Crimea:

Appears to have been a busy day in Crimea.

Bryansk, Russia:

Preemptive air defense works!

Tatarigami has posted a new visual assessment at his new Front Intelligence site.

Click through and give it a read.

The Financial Times has more on Russia’s winter bombardment strategy that I discussed above the jump:

Russia has built up a large stockpile of missiles and intends to use them in a bid to destroy Ukraine’s power and heating infrastructure in the coming months, Nato’s secretary-general has warned.

With the front line largely frozen after Ukraine’s autumn counteroffensive failed to make significant gains, Kyiv has stepped up calls for more air defence supplies from its western allies as it girds for another winter bombardment.

“Russia has amassed a large missile stockpile ahead of winter, and we see new attempts to strike Ukraine’s power grid and energy infrastructure, trying to leave Ukraine in the dark and cold,” Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg told reporters in Brussels on Wednesday.

“We must not underestimate Russia. Russia’s economy is on a war footing,” he said following a meeting of allied foreign ministers and their Ukrainian counterpart.

The warning from the head of the US-led military alliance, which Ukraine has applied to join, comes as EU countries and US lawmakers continue to squabble over respective new financial support packages for Kyiv proposed by Brussels and the White House, raising questions on the longevity of western backing as Russia’s invasion grinds on.

Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, said he saw “no sense of fatigue” among Nato members regarding support for Ukraine.

Russia is planning to spend Rbs10.8tn ($122bn) on defence next year, three times the amount allocated in 2021, the year before the invasion, and 70 per cent more than was planned for 2022, according to a bill on Russia’s budget that President Vladimir Putin signed on. The enormous sums in Russia’s record Rbs36.6tn budget for next year will take defence spending to 6 per cent of gross domestic product.

Arms manufacturers are working three shifts a day to meet the defence ministry’s orders. Several civilian factories have shifted to defence production, as well as some non-industrial sites including a bakery that now makes drones.

Putin told arms makers in September to “raise production capacity in the shortest possible time, keep facilities as busy as possible, optimise technological cycles, and cut down production time without lowering quality”.

Russia’s intelligence agencies have also stepped up their operations to import western dual-use technology — goods that have both potential civilian and military applications — for the defence industry.

The rush for parts has forced Russia to seek ways around western sanctions and export controls by smuggling western-made technology through third countries such as Turkey, according to western officials.

Despite Putin’s orders, Russia is not putting an emphasis on quality, accepting whatever parts arms manufacturers can get their hands on to increase missile production, western officials say — even if that makes them less accurate.

A senior Ukrainian intelligence official told the Financial Times that Russia was now receiving frequent shipments of munitions from Iran and North Korea, including Iranian one-way attack drones and North Korean artillery shells and rockets.

The artillery is arriving in quantities that will ensure Russian troops can at least continue fighting at a level consistent with the hostilities in recent months, while the drones are likely to be used along with long-range missiles in Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure over the winter months.

Stoltenberg’s remarks come after Russia launched its biggest drone attack of the war on November 25, targeting Kyiv’s energy infrastructure and signalling what Ukrainian officials fear marked the start of a winter air campaign.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Tuesday said his country’s air defences have had a success rate of more than 90 per cent in intercepting Russian missiles and drones in the latest wave of attacks. But he said Kyiv still needed more help from the west to get through the tough winter ahead.

“There is a clear need to develop and reinforce our mobile firing groups, as well as to get all highly effective air defence systems [from western partners],” Zelenskyy said.

Oleksandr Lytvynenko, Ukraine’s chief of foreign intelligence, wrote in a rare public report on the war last week that Russia’s military had been weakened but that Putin had set his economy on a war footing, significantly increasing its arms production which is likely to continue at least until 2026.

“The Kremlin believes that it has enough resources for hostilities with Ukraine at the current level for a long period,” he said. “At the same time, Moscow is convinced that Ukraine’s internal resources are allegedly ‘approaching complete exhaustion’.”

Russia’s goals in Ukraine, to gain as much territory as possible, remain unchanged, he added. Going into winter, the conflict had now fully attained the “stage of a war of attrition”, Lytvynenko said.

More at the link.

At least someone’s economy is on a war footing.

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

Reader Interactions

23Comments

  8. 8.

    Alison Rose

    @HumboldtBlue: John Oliver is gonna be happy. In a recent episode after noting some random thing having happened, he said he almost had a full 2023 bingo card, and was just waiting for “you know who to you know what”.

    I don’t generally celebrate deaths. But let’s just say I’m fairly dry-eyed at this moment.

  9. 9.

    Gin & Tonic

    The Organization for the Prevention of Chemical Weapons is holding its major (annual? not sure) conference at The Hague. Today, among other business, was the election of member states to the Executive Council. Representing Eastern Europe, Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine were elected to the EC (Ukraine got 126 out of a possible 130 votes.) Ukraine’s eastern neighbor got 65. Unfortunately, 66 votes were required for election to the EC.

  10. 10.

    Alison Rose

    Lots of videos from Zelenskyy’s visits today on his FB page, but this one in particular I found very moving, when he’s spending time with folks at the regional center for IDPs in Odesa. I just always appreciate the time he takes for everyone, even just regular civilians, and the clear care and compassion he shows to them.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  17. 17.

    lashonharangue

    Thanks Adam. I have another question about the forces on the left bank of the Dnipro. After the dam was blown up and the flood receded I thought I read that the level of the river was now lower. With winter starting, is it possible that it may freeze sufficiently to get heavier supplies and equipment across? Not for a winter campaign but to extend the AA and EW range and make it easier to rotate troops.

  18. 18.

    Adam L Silverman

    Unless something changes in the next 2 hours, the Israel-Hamas truce is done:

  20. 20.

    Gin & Tonic

    @lashonharangue: Since this is the first winter without that dam (built in 1956) I think anyone without an engineering team on-site would be speculating. I suspect even the engineers would be speculating.

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