(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Today was exceedingly long, so tonight’s update is going to be brief.

Last night Devore posted this comment:

Thanks.   Nice to have a decent news day

First, you’re most welcome. Second, how about we not tempt fate and/or jinx things again? 😱

Russia attacked Odesa today. There was initial reporting that President Zelenskyy and Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis were the targets as they were in Odesa at the time of the strike. This is not correct. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s (RFE/RL) Mark Krutov has the accurate details:

I won't post details here, but contrary to what @protothema reported about the Russian strike occurring '150m' from Zelensky and Mitsotakis, the only available photo of the strike can be geolocated as far as 3 km from the place Zelensky and Mitsotakis visited at the port.

— Mark Krutov (@kromark) March 6, 2024

The strike left 5 people dead, and the fact is awful in itself :( Odesa has suffered enough these days. I don't know what it was aimed at (Russia says the naval drones storage), but Humenyuk is right: it was not an attempt to assassinate Zelensky. pic.twitter.com/IA9YjcY6DB

— Mark Krutov (@kromark) March 6, 2024

More on the strike after the jump.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Weapons and air defense are needed here to save lives – address by the President of Ukraine

6 March 2024 – 18:09

Dear Ukrainians!

We’re in Odesa today. There was a meeting with the Prime Minister of Greece. Together we honored the memory of those killed by the Russian “Shahed” strike on March 2. Children, adults… Farewell ceremonies have been held these days. Eternal memory to all the victims of Russian terror!

Of course, the main issue in the talks with the Prime Minister of Greece was our defense, our capabilities in active operations and defense. Air defense is an absolute priority. Just like in negotiations with other partners. The world has enough air defense systems and capabilities to produce weapons for defense. Weapons are needed here to save lives. Decisions are needed now – not someday, but for the people who endure terrorist attacks every day and night. Last night alone, and against Odesa alone, twenty “Shaheds” were launched. This morning there was another missile attack against the city. There are wounded, there are dead… More protection is needed. Today I spoke with Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis about how we can strengthen our people here in the south of Ukraine. There will be negotiations with other states and leaders as well. We really appreciate every form of assistance.

Today I held an operational meeting with local leadership – regional authorities, government officials – so that they provide all the necessary assistance to people who have lost their homes as a result of Russian strikes and lost their documents. It must be sufficient assistance. And fast. I am grateful to everyone who supports people, who helps and preserves as much normal life as possible here in Odesa and in all our cities. Russia must not achieve anything with its terror.

I thank everyone who fights for our people and country. I thank everyone who works for Ukraine and in Ukraine. I am grateful to Odesa – to everyone who takes care of our Odesa, who protects the city, who works in the city and provides jobs for people. I thank everyone in the world who helps! We will definitely withstand. We will protect normal life.

Glory to Ukraine!

Earlier today The Washington Post reported that the Biden administration had made over 100 weapons and munitions shipments to Israel that just happened to be below the monetary value threshold that would require them to report the shipments to Congress. These are in addition to the two that they notified Congress about via emergency declaration, which I covered in Israel-Hamas war updates. I had two initial thoughts when I read the reporting. The first was that now we know where the resupply for Ukraine went. The second was if I was the Ukrainians I’d be pissed that the Biden administration isn’t doing this for us. I think these are both valid first impressions, but we’ll have to wait for subsequent reporting to see if they hold up over time. Here’s the reporting so you can think through it for yourself.

The United States has quietly approved and delivered more than 100 separate foreign military sales to Israel since the Gaza war began Oct. 7, amounting to thousands of precision-guided munitions, small-diameter bombs, bunker busters, small arms and other lethal aid, U.S. officials told members of Congress in a recent classified briefing.

The triple-digit figure, which has not been previously reported, is the latest indication of Washington’s extensive involvement in the polarizing five-month conflict even as top U.S. officials and lawmakers increasingly express deep reservations about Israel’s military tactics in a campaign that has killed more than 30,000 people, according to Gaza’s health authorities.

Only two approved foreign military sales to Israel have been made public since the start of conflict: $106 million worth of tank ammunition and $147.5 million of components needed to make 155 mm shells. Those sales invited public scrutiny because the Biden administration bypassed Congress to approve the packages by invoking an emergency authority.

But in the case of the 100 other transactions, known in government-speak as Foreign Military Sales or FMS, the weapons transfers were processed without any public debate because each fell under a specific dollar amount that requires the executive branch to individually notify Congress, according to U.S. officials and lawmakers who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive military matter.

Taken together, the weapons packages amount to a massive transfer of firepower at a time when senior U.S. officials have complained that Israeli officials have fallen short on their appeals to limit civilian casualties, allow more aid into Gaza and refrain from rhetoric calling for the permanent displacement of Palestinians.“That’s an extraordinary number of sales over the course of a pretty short amount of time, which really strongly suggests that the Israeli campaign would not be sustainable without this level of U.S. support,” said Jeremy Konyndyk, a former senior Biden administration official and current president of Refugees International.

State Department spokesman Matt Miller said the Biden administration has “followed the procedures Congress itself has specified to keep members well-informed and regularly briefs members even when formal notification is not a legal requirement.”

He added that U.S. officials have “engaged Congress” on arms transfers to Israel “more than 200 times” since Hamas launched a cross-border attack into Israel that killed 1,200 people and took more than 240 hostage.

More at the link.

This is just strategic incompetence.

If Navalnaya were to protest Russia’s war in Ukraine, witness the war crimes in Bucha committed by Russian army, or even perform one small act of solidarity like many genuine supporters of Ukraine have done, she won’t probably be “viewed with some skepticism in Ukraine”. pic.twitter.com/qKkJFndpJk

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 6, 2024

Whomever is the Senior Director for Ukraine, Russia, and Eurasia on the National Security Staff either needs a welfare check because their recommendation that this would be a bad idea was ignored or needs to be fired because they failed to make it. This is really basic stuff that you have to get right.

House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul, who is working on a foreign aid package with Ukraine money and border provisions, expressed confidence today that a bill will be on the floor after government funding is done on March 22.

Asked if Johnson has committed to that,…

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) March 6, 2024

House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul, who is working on a foreign aid package with Ukraine money and border provisions, expressed confidence today that a bill will be on the floor after government funding is done on March 22.

Asked if Johnson has committed to that, McCaul told me today: “I think so.” More on McCaul’s and Johnson’s handling of the issue:

https://cnn.com/2024/03/03/politics/mike-johnson-ukraine-funding/index.html

CNN has the details on this definitely, might possibly, could happen vote:

Speaker Mike Johnson swiftly derailed the Senate’s bipartisan aid package for Ukraine, but he’s left the door open to a new proposal emerging in the House.

Behind the scenes, Johnson has met privately with House Republicans who have been trying to build support for a new bipartisan foreign aid package that includes restrictions on the US border with Mexico. And now House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul is taking a lead role in trying to finalize a proposal and build consensus within the conference as part of a push for floor action by late March or April.

Johnson has not yet taken a position on the plan or committed to giving it a floor vote, telling his colleagues that they need to finalize government funding legislation first. But once that process is done by mid-March, Republican backers of the plan believe he will let it come to the floor – even it risks backlash from hard-right members or even a vote for his ouster from the speakership.

“More than you think,” Pennsylvania Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, a leader of the effort, said bluntly when asked about the support the GOP leadership team has given his bipartisan proposal. “We have to get something done.”

Still, getting legislation through the House remains an extremely tall order. Republicans are badly divided over Ukraine, and former President Donald Trump could effectively kill the bill with one social media post. Plus, ample Democratic support would be needed to pass it – a tall order given that the package includes new border restrictions and aid to Israel that would likely prompt a revolt on the left.

With Russia making gains in Ukraine, proponents say action is needed immediately. Fitzpatrick plans to begin a process this week to circumvent leadership and force a vote – known in the Capitol as a discharge petition, which would require support from a majority of House members to succeed. But even organizers of that effort recognize that it amounts to a long-shot bid and consider it a last resort. Their best bet: convincing Johnson to put the bill on the floor once it’s ready for action.

“I think, first, the speaker wants to get through the normal appropriations process, which is not easy,” McCaul said. “And then after that is done, then we tackle the supplemental. We are currently working on a draft. I think you’ll see a House imprimatur on this supplemental.”

McCaul, who briefed Republicans in the speaker’s office last week on the emerging plan, told CNN that Johnson has been “very deliberate.”

Other proponents of the measure say Johnson has clearly been open to their plan.

“No, I don’t think he’s trying to kill it,” said Rep. Mike Lawler, a freshman New York Republican who has signed on to the effort. “I think he understands the need to get support for Israel, for Ukraine, for Taiwan. … It’s a function of process and working through these issues within the conference.”

Lawler added: “Any threat to use the motion to vacate (the speaker) is idiotic. We need to be focused on solving the problems.”

Johnson has faced pressure on all sides. He has endured criticism internationally and from Democrats who say his failure to act immediately amounts to siding with Vladimir Putin. Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell has pressed him to allow a House vote on the Senate’s $95 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, warning that any House changes to that plan would simply delay action and make it harder for Ukraine to defeat Russia.

Yet Johnson’s right flank has pointedly warned him not to approve a dime more of funding for Ukraine.

“That would be a huge mistake,” said Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Georgia Republican and staunch opponent of Ukraine aid. “The American people don’t support it, and our job title is representative. Our job title is not fund the CIA’s war against Ukraine. That’s not what we’re elected to do.”

Rep. Bob Good of Virginia, the leader of the House Freedom Caucus and one of the eight Republicans who voted to oust Kevin McCarthy as speaker last fall, would not say whether moving on Ukraine aid would cost Johnson his job. But he said that any aid package must be offset with spending cuts and should not be tied with Israel – a much different approach from the one Fitzpatrick and McCaul are taking.

“Ukraine divides the Republican conference,” Good said. “I don’t think it has majority support. … So if it doesn’t have Republican majority support, it should not be brought.”

The effort to approve more aid to Ukraine has been delayed for months amid GOP infighting. First, Republicans demanded Congress move on tougher border security measures before advancing aid to Ukraine. Then, after a bipartisan border security deal was cut after nearly five months of talks in the Senate, Johnson – along with Trump – immediately declared it too weak, effectively killing the effort.

After the Senate dropped the border deal amid Johnson’s opposition and then approved the $95 billion aid package last month, McConnell said the House GOP could no longer wait to act.

“If they change it and send it back here, we have further delay,” the Kentucky Republican told reporters last week. “Not only do we not want to shut the government down, we don’t want the Russians to win in Ukraine. And so we have a time problem here. And the best way to move quickly and get the bill to the president would be for the House to take up the Senate bill and pass it.”

Johnson has said he won’t take up the Senate plan because it’s silent on the border. But on Thursday, he suggested that he’s willing to consider measures being developed in the House.

“The House is actively considering options on a path forward,” Johnson said. “And so, we’re getting government funding done, and then we’re going to turn to these other priorities.”

Johnson definitely, maybe, possibly might eventually do something.

Latvia, however, is stepping up:

Thank you for your support!
Together, we will win.
🇺🇦🤝🇱🇻 https://t.co/EajuEIEcL2

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 6, 2024

Overnight across Ukraine:

Russia unleashed 42 Shahed drones on Ukraine tonight. 38 were downed. Drones, not missiles, are now the deadliest weapons Russia targets civilians with. Each time, I wonder, will we have enough weapons to take them down? pic.twitter.com/OguhiM2GTC

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 6, 2024

The Financial Times has more on Russia’s attack on Odesa. This was reported before RFE/RL reported the accurate information that the impact site was several kilometers away from where President Zelenskyy and PM Mitsokasis were at the time of impact.

A Russian ballistic missile struck “very close” to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Kyriakos Mitsotakis while the pair were visiting the port of Odesa on Wednesday, according to the Greek prime minister.

Five people were killed by the missile, Ukraine’s navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk told the Financial Times. Russia said it hit a hangar housing sea drones that have been used to attack Russian ships in the Black Sea.

“We saw the explosion today,” Zelenskyy said. “You see who we are dealing with, they don’t care where to hit. I know that there were victims today. It doesn’t matter if it’s soldiers, civilians or international [guests], they don’t care.”

The attack happened shortly after the two leaders and their teams were at Odesa’s harbour, where Zelenskyy was explaining the Black Sea port’s importance to Ukrainian exports and pointing out the damage to infrastructure from Russia’s previous attacks as the full-scale war entered its third year.

Sirens went off during the visit. “A little later, as we entered into our cars, we heard a large explosion,” Mitsotakis said. The incident was the “liveliest reminder that in Ukraine, there is a real war going on,” he added.

The explosion took place about 300 metres from where the motorcade was, according to a Greek official.

“That’s another reason that all European leaders should visit Ukraine,” Mitsotakis said. “It’s one thing to see or hear the description from the media or from President Zelenskyy, with whom we communicate regularly, and it’s completely different to experience the war first hand.”

More at the link!

Avdiivka:

The "Avdiivka" naval drone will be a revenge for russia for destroyed Ukrainian cities.

📷: @ServiceSsu pic.twitter.com/IDvUgV3rLu

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 6, 2024

And we have video!

Tests of the new version of the Ukrainian Sea Baby naval drone with a new hull design. As said new model can carry up to 10 centners of explosives over distances of up to 1000km. But the possibilities of using marine drones of this model will not be limited only to use in the… pic.twitter.com/4n7QtuqLag

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 6, 2024

Tests of the new version of the Ukrainian Sea Baby naval drone with a new hull design. As said new model can carry up to 10 centners of explosives over distances of up to 1000km. But the possibilities of using marine drones of this model will not be limited only to use in the kamikaze role. It is said that the design of the drone allows the installation of modules for firing at enemy coastal targets. There is also said to be the possibility of installing air defense systems on the platform.
https://youtu.be/6eVBn6gYZNE?si=jPiLfS-6ZXQ2NOsR

Here’s the full video:

More on the attack on the Kotov:

/12. Clear view on the Kotov before the attack also shows that there was no TOR air defence system on the helipad. Therefore, theoretically, there could be a helicopter on board (in the ship’s hangar). However, this can only be visually confirmed if someone wants to dive after… pic.twitter.com/WWj82G9M7E

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 6, 2024

And we have new video of the February 2024 strike on the Caesar Kunikov:

/2. Same video but partially sounded published by Russians. pic.twitter.com/uhb4nvuHPw

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 6, 2024

Video of the Ukrainian MAGURA V5 naval kamikaze drones attack on Caesar Kunikov from the Russian point of view.

As well as the Russian claims regarding this attack:

“The crew repelled the naval kamikaze drone attack with all available forces and means, the battle lasted 20 minutes. Of the 10 drones, four were destroyed. The fifth drone hit the ship in the stern, thereby immobilizing the ship, after which the 6, 7, 8 and 9 drones alternately hit the ship on the port side in the midship area (middle) and closer to the stern, with the aim of capsizing the ship (due to the influx of a large amount of water from one side). The ninth drone partially entered the hole made by the previous one, and detonated almost inside of the ship.

There was no way to save the ship (the list was rapidly increasing, the ship was lying on the left side). From the moment the enemy drones were discovered and the start of the battle, until the ship was completely flooded, a little more than 40 minutes passed. The crew left the ship using life rafts, without loss of personnel, and evacuated all secret documentation and part of the secret equipment with weapons. The last 10th drone monitored the dying ship until the sinking, after which the 10th drone tried to attack the accompanying tug, but was destroyed by the group on board”

Novomykhailivka:

/2. Ongoing Russian attacks on Novomykhailivka, video by Shadow unit. https://t.co/0pRHe3kOa8 pic.twitter.com/R4Sjbfl73h

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 6, 2024

/1. Another video of the ongoing Russian attacks on Novomykhailivka area. Published by the 79th Brigade. At the 0:51 their is another loss of the Russian T-62M with KMT-6 mine plow. Since February, the statistics of losses of Russian T-62/55/54 have increased significantly compared to previous figures.
https://facebook.com/79AMBUA/videos/427359869951493/

Kursk Oblast, Russia:

One of the largest plants producing raw iron ore materials in Russia in Zheleznogorsk, Kursk Oblast, was attacked by unidentified flying objects. Reportedly, the drone struck right into the fuel tank on the territory of the plant.

The facility is sanctioned by the US and the UK… pic.twitter.com/lggayGiIsk

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 6, 2024

One of the largest plants producing raw iron ore materials in Russia in Zheleznogorsk, Kursk Oblast, was attacked by unidentified flying objects. Reportedly, the drone struck right into the fuel tank on the territory of the plant.

The facility is sanctioned by the US and the UK as it’s linked to oligarch Alisher Usmanov.

Last night AlaskaReader asked:

@Adam L Silverman: I see action on one nominee today, Ronald T. Keohane, to be an Assistant Secretary of Defense, vice James N. Stewart.

Are these ongoing holdups still fallout from Tuberville or are there other actors involved?

I’m going to assume the resistance to nominees is coming from one party, or are there persons identifiable so as to become a target for applied pressure from the public?.

Some of this is still hangover from Tuberville. Others are being slow walked as a result of objections from the GOP minority on the Senate Armed Services Committee. This is what seems to be the case with the nominee to become Undersecretary of Defense for Policy. Apparently he’s controversial.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron.

First some Ukrainian dogs and cats courtesy of Michael Kofman. Look at that Frenchie in the first pic!

Back from a recent field study in Ukraine. Some thoughts soon to follow. But first, a few photos of some of the cats and dogs I met on the trip. pic.twitter.com/d986pKjFfs

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) March 6, 2024

A new episode of Patron’s official cartoon!

Open thread!