(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Speaker Johnson appears to have come up with a plan regarding the foreign military aid supplemental. It isn’t a good plan. It isn’t even a fully baked plan. But it is his plan.
JOHNSON, in the closed GOP meeting, says that Ukraine needs to stand on its own.
— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) April 15, 2024
Rep. Kevin Hern R-OK tells us the House GOP plan is separate votes on aid for Israel and Ukraine. Timing and details still TBD
— Jamie Dupree (@jamiedupree) April 15, 2024
Rep. Joyce says Johnson has reached decision on his "vision" for way forward on Israel/ukraine aid… but must still sell it to conference.
— Billy House (@HouseInSession) April 15, 2024
Kevin Hern, who leads the Republican Study Committee, says Johnson is doing “the right thing” with the foreign aid package.
— Max Cohen (@maxpcohen) April 15, 2024
JEFFRIES doesn’t rule out Dems voting for the rule but says he’s still waiting to see Johnson’s final plan:
“We’re not going to come to any conclusion on process until we understand the substance.”
— Heather Caygle (@heatherscope) April 15, 2024
Good luck with that.
The Israelis have figured out this game and they are now reading the US for feckless filth:
יש דיווחים שהדרג המדיני החליט על תגובה בטווח זמן מהיר. תגובה שלא תוביל לדבריהם למלחמה אזורית. אבל תהיה "נחושה" ו"נחרצת". ושהם מבינים שאיראן תגיב. לתגובה. שבאה בתגובה להתקפה האיראנית. אולי כל זה לוחמה פסיכולוגית בדרך למהלך חכם מאוד (נגיד מהלך טקטי נבון בעזה דווקא). אין אלא לקוות.…
— נדב איל Nadav Eyal (@Nadav_Eyal) April 15, 2024
Here’s a machine translation of the Hebrew: (emphasis mine)
There are reports that the political echelon has decided on a response in a quick timeframe. A response that they say will not lead to a regional war. But be “determined” and “resolute”. And that they understand that Iran will respond. for a response. which came in response to the Iranian attack. Maybe all this is psychological warfare on the way to a very smart move (let’s say a smart tactical move in Gaza actually). One can only hope. If not, here are my comments:
1. How will the system know what a determined military response is that will not cause war? As I have been posting for a few days now, the AMN and the Mossad in general have told the political level that their main assessment is that Tehran will absorb the elimination of Mahdoi. They also assessed that Hamas is deterred. Israel works with an intelligence community that is very good at tactical information and bad at understanding enemy intentions. And shows arrogance. This is not Just instills confidence.
2. If the response will be symbolic, no appropriate equation has been created for Iran’s (unbearable) attack. If the reaction is too harsh, it may lead to war. In such a situation, isn’t it better to adopt a policy of “we will choose the place and the time”? Giora Eiland, Gideon Sa’ar, Ron Ben Yishai, Amos Harel and many others think so.
3. The whole framing of “to respond or not to respond” is a lie. Of course you need to respond. The question is whether now. and public. I keep hearing this threatening talk of “need to respond” and it’s all false. There was no immediate response that night, and Israel can respond two months from now. in high or low signature. We have the ball. And all the talk of the equation of sorts: what will determine if an equation has been created that discourages us is our future behavior in relation to a situation similar to the one in Damascus.
4. An Israeli response is, of course, turning our backs on the West’s requests, which we have only recently improved our alliance with. It’s not bad in itself; The West proves in Ukraine that it knows how to stand by your side, but not completely and to the end. On the other hand, without him completely – Israel (or Ukraine) has no chance of really winning.
That’s why you need wisdom. And yes – the response may be measured and smart and wise. One that does not give the Iranians a reason to continue (can you imagine, an Iranian asset outside of Iran?). But wouldn’t it be more worthwhile to leverage the current situation for another, diplomatic event? Maybe it will happen again. There was talk last night. By and large, the Israeli system is Pavlovian conditioned to disdain for diplomacy. This is a mistake in such a war.
5. The most disturbing. Israel is led by a rather uniform security and political leadership, most of which carries a terrible failure, ego burn and a legacy that will accompany it into history. October 7. Alternatively: former chiefs of staff.
The parties compete who is more aggressive and leak that one or the other offered to respond that night. Because they are not a “girl with cuckoos”, to quote one common phrase in these circles.
I wonder if anyone in the discussions – I write someone because women unfortunately do not participate in them – raised the so civil issue of a holiday. Passover. of an entire people who are in post-trauma. Because if we respond, and then wait for Iran, we have arrived at Seder Pesach.
And yes – this is a consideration in war. It is also necessary to manage the spirit of the public. Churchill dealt with such things extensively. as well as in diplomacy. When necessary, he knew how to beg the Americans. But Churchill, unlike the leaders here, was not addicted to a military concept in the style of a rookie general.
6. I have every hope that there is some brilliant move made here by the Israeli system, and that things are not as transparent and dangerous as they seem from the outside. The goal of preventing a regional war is at the core of Israel’s goals in the war. Iran must pay a price, and Israel must continue to harm the Iranians who target terrorism on its territory. I’m not convinced that a transparent, quick, and public response will serve all of these goals. Many good people think like me.
This is why the Israelis have decided to hit Iran back as soon as possible, which Eyal also talks about in his tweet. When you look weak, because you are weak, your clients will ignore you, your allies will not be assured, and your adversaries will not be deterred. As for Bibi and his war cabinet: ayn strategik, raq taktik. No strategy, only tactics. I’ll have a bit more on this at the bottom of tonight’s update.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
“Shaheds” in the Skies Above Ukraine Sound Identical to Those Over the Middle East – Address by the President
15 April 2024 – 20:41
Dear Ukrainians!
A few summaries of the day.
I held a meeting of the Staff. Two key topics now are the frontline and the energy sector.
Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi delivered a report on the areas where the situation is the most severe.
Special attention was paid to the battles for Chasiv Yar, the battles in the Pokrovsk and Kupyansk directions.
I am grateful to every soldier and commander, to all our units who are defending our positions and doing everything to stabilize the situation.
Ukraine’s Defense Minister Umerov reported on the implementation of contracts for the supply of shells and drones, as well as electronic warfare.
Today, the Staff had a separate and detailed discussion about the use of electronic warfare and the protection of critical infrastructure. This applies, in particular, to the energy sector – what is protected and what was, unfortunately, not sufficiently protected. Appropriate conclusions will be drawn.
We analyzed the necessary actions to restore generation and key power facilities.
There was also a report on the state of protection of critical infrastructure in the areas near the frontline and in the border area.
There were two important intelligence reports – by Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service Ivashchenko and Chief of the Defence Intelligence Budanov – on Russian actions in the spring and summer. On what we must be prepared for – in all formats of possible hostile actions. Obviously, the madness in the Kremlin is still rampant, and the occupier will try to intensify assault and offensive actions. We will retaliate.
Today I also held meetings on our work with partners in the coming weeks. As before, the top priority will be air defense and weapons for our warriors on the frontline. Also, the consolidation of partners and the unity of the world will remain a priority.
The entire world witnessed allied action in the skies above Israel and neighboring countries. It demonstrated how truly effective unity in defending against terror can be when it is based on sufficient political will. Israel, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Jordan acted together and with maximum efficiency.
Together, they prevented terror from prevailing. And they are working together, and in coordination with others, to prevent further escalation.
Israel is not a NATO member, so no action, such as triggering Article 5, was required.
And no one was dragged into the war. They simply contributed to the protection of human life.
“Shaheds” in the skies above Ukraine sound identical to those over the Middle East. The impact of ballistic missiles, if they are not intercepted, is the same everywhere.
European skies could have received the same level of protection long ago if Ukraine had received similar full support from its partners in intercepting drones and missiles.
Terror must be defeated completely and everywhere, not more in some places and less in others.
I thank everyone in the world, every leader and state, who truly assists us with air defense and missiles necessary to protect our skies, as well as training our pilots on F-16s. All of this already works and will continue to work to save lives. However, we can now see how unity can work truly a hundred percent, and how almost a hundred percent of “Shaheds” and missiles can be intercepted. We will discuss it with our partners.
One more thing. Today the Norwegian Foreign Minister is on a visit to Ukraine. I had a meeting with him. I expressed gratitude for the truly significant and principled support for Ukraine. Our teams have finalized negotiations with Norway on a bilateral security agreement, and we are preparing to sign it with the Norwegian leader. We are also working on expanding defense cooperation, in particular to bolster our air defense. We also appreciate that Norway provides Ukraine with long-term financial support – all forms of resilience are important in times of war.
I am grateful to everyone in the world who stands with Ukraine! I am grateful to everyone who has the determination to truly defeat terror!
I thank everyone in Ukraine who fights and works for our victory.
Glory to Ukraine!
LTG Budanov, the Director of Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR), sat for an interview with ICTV. It starts at the 4;37 mark of the reporting.
Here’s a machine translation into English of what was covered during the entire broadcast:
00:00:00 – The beginning
00:00:11 – Air alert in the regions – launch of the Shaheds
00:01:21 – How the intelligence of the Rubizh brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine works in the defense of Chasovyi Yar
00:04:37 – Budanov: In May-June, Russian troops plan to intensify fighting on the front line
00:05:16 – Shelling of Dnipropetrovs’k region on 15.04.24 – consequences
00:05:40 – Ukraine and Bulgaria hold Black Sea security conference
00:07:16 – Floods in the Russian Federation reached another region – Tomsk region
00:08:00 – A storm passed through Ukraine – consequences
00:08:37 – Ukraine to sign memorandum with Italy on restoration of historic center of Odesa
00:09:32 – In Odesa, a combat medic opened an Unbreakable coffee shop with the help of a microgrant
00:12:51 – Photo exhibition in memory of fallen soldiers opened in Vinnytsia
The cost, the price, and the reason:
Ukrainian veterans came to Minneapolis to receive new prostheses.
This is how they were met by the Ukrainian diaspora. pic.twitter.com/DMsC7LDi9E
— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) April 15, 2024
Yana Stepanenko, a 12-year-old girl who lost her two legs in a Russian missile attack on Kramatorsk, has run 5 kilometers in @bostonmarathon on her prostheses. Yana is raising funds to provide prostheses for a critically wounded Ukrainian soldier. Yana is truly an inspiration! pic.twitter.com/FUtDDy89pc
— Oleh Nikolenko 🇺🇦🇨🇦 (@OlehNikolenko_) April 14, 2024
Instead of a thousand words.
Firefighter Andrii Hrechanyi ran a half-marathon wearing full firefighter gear yesterday.
He dedicated his run to his three Kharkiv colleagues killed by a Russian strike on April 4th. Andrii held their portraits his whole run.
📷: Grunt https://t.co/SBeTVQ0UfF pic.twitter.com/L3xCoqFrfU
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 15, 2024
More stupidity from members of the House GOP majority caucus:
So it makes it totally fine that Putin will end up exterminating and devouring “only” Ukraine? Okey dokey?
HOW DO THESE PEOPLE EVEN MAKE IT TO THE CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA FOR CRIYNG OUT LOUD https://t.co/qF89rdUeGL
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 15, 2024
And some stupidity from the Biden administration:
Washington Post adds a new wrinkle to our @FT scoop last month that the US warned Ukraine not to attack Russian oil refineries with long-range drones. Our original report: https://t.co/DRussu4cAs
WaPo, confirming FT reporting below, reports that VP Kamala Harris asked Zelensky… https://t.co/Ixi2m3BzJw
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 15, 2024
Washington Post adds a new wrinkle to our @FT scoop last month that the US warned Ukraine not to attack Russian oil refineries with long-range drones. Our original report: https://ft.com/content/98f15b60-bc4d-4d3c-9e57-cbdde122ac0c
WaPo, confirming FT reporting below, reports that VP Kamala Harris asked Zelensky personally to not strike Russian refineries.
New: When Kamala Harris met privately with Volodymyr Zelensky in February, she told him something he didn’t want to hear: Refrain from attacking Russian oil refineries, a tactic U.S. officials believed would raise global energy prices and invite more aggressive Russian…
— John Hudson (@John_Hudson) April 15, 2024
New: When Kamala Harris met privately with Volodymyr Zelensky in February, she told him something he didn’t want to hear: Refrain from attacking Russian oil refineries, a tactic U.S. officials believed would raise global energy prices and invite more aggressive Russian retaliation inside Ukraine.
The request irritated Zelensky and his top aides, who view Kyiv’s string of drone strikes on Russian energy facilities as a rare bright spot in a grinding war of attrition. Zelensky brushed off the recommendation, but in subsequent weeks, Washington reinforced the warning in multiple conversations with Kyiv, including by Jake Sullivan, who traveled to Ukraine’s capital in March.
Instead of acquiescing to the U.S. requests, Ukraine doubled down on the strategy, striking a range of Russian facilities, including an April 2 attack on Russia’s third-largest refinery 800 miles from the font.
The incidents have exacerbated tensions in an already-strained relationship and come as Biden ramps up his reelection campaign amid a six-month high in oil prices.
Defenders of Ukraine’s strategy accuse the White House of prioritizing domestic politics over Kyiv’s military goals. U.S. officials say the rationale behind their warnings is more nuanced than critics suggest, noting that Moscow’s counterattack has hurt Ukraine more than the refinery attacks hurt Russia.
More details here:
https://washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/04/15/ukraine-russia-oil-refinery-attacks/
Dudette’s gotta go!
Harris’s strategic malpractice likely explains this statement from Ukraine’s Foreign Minister:
“If partners tell us: “We’re giving you seven Patriot batteries tomorrow, but we have a request to you – can you not do this and that?”, then there’s something to talk about.
But if we don’t have the batteries, don’t have air packages, and we’re being asked not to do something……
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 15, 2024
“If partners tell us: “We’re giving you seven Patriot batteries tomorrow, but we have a request to you – can you not do this and that?”, then there’s something to talk about.
But if we don’t have the batteries, don’t have air packages, and we’re being asked not to do something… then what do we have to talk about? Then everyone does whatever it takes to survive…
I cannot believe and I think no one in Ukraine would believe a power as large as the United States military does not have a single Patriot battery to save infrastructure worth billions of dollars, as well as priceless Ukrainian lives.”
– Ukraine’s foreign affairs minister @DmytroKuleba
By the way, it's been 4 months since the last authorised US military aid package for Ukraine, and lots of very ridiculous "foreign policy realists" insisted that Ukraine and Russia would broker a peace treaty if Ukraine was finally cut off.
All that has happened is that more…
— Oz Katerji (@OzKaterji) April 15, 2024
By the way, it’s been 4 months since the last authorised US military aid package for Ukraine, and lots of very ridiculous “foreign policy realists” insisted that Ukraine and Russia would broker a peace treaty if Ukraine was finally cut off.
All that has happened is that more Ukrainian soldiers and civilians have been killed because Ukraine now lacks the ammunition to sufficiently defend itself, while Russia continues to rearm through its allies. The war is not only still ongoing, but Russia is gaining the upper hand.
Helping Ukraine or abandoning Ukraine. Those have always been the only two options on the table. There is no magic third approach which leads to peace, no matter how many times you’ve been fed that lie by charlatans.
Nuclear weapons are what sets apart the response of multiple countries to missile and drone barrages by Iran and Russia. The takeaway here is clear: if you want to be taken seriously, you must possess nuclear weapons. Decades of non-proliferation efforts continue to be undermined
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) April 15, 2024
Not only is Tatarigami correct here, but I expect that the Baltic states, Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Poland are all working very quietly on how to remedy this deficit. I also expect Ukraine is doing the same. If the leaders of these states have not ordered the appropriate folks to work this problem set, then they are fools.
The Czech Republic:
Czech PM @P_Fiala: “We are working to secure a further 300,000 [artillery] rounds and have already contracted the first 180,000. These will be delivered to the Ukrainian front in the coming months.” https://t.co/ECGNlBkbkH
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 15, 2024
From The Financial Times:
The writer is prime minister of the Czech Republic
The Czech ammunition initiative has attracted considerable international attention. This is a positive thing. At the moment, European nations buying additional artillery ammunition from other countries is the only way to quickly provide Ukraine with urgently needed rounds.
The situation in Ukraine is critical. As the war enters its third year, the country’s armed forces are under unprecedented pressure. They are running out of ammunition, meaning they are forced to make difficult decisions every day. This makes it extremely hard to hold their lines — the very lines that will decide the security and future of the whole of Europe.
Russia, on the other hand, has plenty of military assets. How many more rounds is the aggressor firing at this moment? One estimate gives the Russians a fivefold advantage.
Fortunately, western democracies recognise that it is impossible to be impartial in this conflict. In addition to financial, humanitarian and refugee assistance, we have not hesitated to deliver much-needed arms and ammunition from the beginning.
Unfortunately, we have not been able to move as quickly as Ukraine needs, and our defence industries have not yet been able to meet such high demand.
We are therefore looking for new ways to overcome these challenges. The Czech Republic’s answer to this question is the ammunition initiative. Its purpose is to find hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds as quickly as possible on world markets (where they are still available in abundance), to finance their purchase with co-operating western states and to get them to the front without delay.
The scheme is deceptively simple, which is why it has achieved significant success so soon after its launch. We are working to secure a further 300,000 rounds and have already contracted the first 180,000. These will be delivered to the Ukrainian front in the coming months. We could never have achieved such promising figures without the strong initial support of Denmark and the Netherlands — and some 20 other countries who later joined us in pledging their help.
The Czech Republic has been supporting the defenders of Ukraine for a long time. Over the past two years, we have supplied them with more than 1mn large-calibre ammunition rounds. This shows that our current initiative is not a one-off stunt. We are striving to create a robust ammunition supply mechanism that will directly help turn the tide on the frontline. To do so, we are leveraging our unique expertise, grounded in long-standing support for Ukraine, the strength of our defence industry and our historically established contacts in third countries.
This initiative also has another, equally important, aim: to give the west more time to adapt. War is changing our world; the days of complacency are over. This means we can no longer avoid fundamental changes at home, such as strengthening societal resilience and rebuilding sufficient defence capacity. We need to get used to the fact that a responsible security policy must include much greater investment in defence to deter attackers. Otherwise, we will not fare well in an era of resumed competition with Russia and other aggressive actors.
Luckily, all these changes are taking place: we are investing much more in security and modernising our defence forces. Nato is expanding. And even those actors in individual countries who until recently believed it was possible to negotiate sensibly with Russia are now fully aware of their share of responsibility.
The Czech initiative is part of these efforts. Its aim is to fill the ammunition gap, especially until Europe can produce enough ammunition on its own. We will not shrug off this responsibility.
There were air raid alerts across Ukraine again this morning.
Air raid alert is in Kyiv region, and some other regions now, due to ballistic rocket strike danger. pic.twitter.com/MBAJrbgqGd
— Kyrylo Loukerenko (@K_Loukerenko) April 15, 2024
Russian glide bombs incoming… try and imagine this hell that the Ukrainian military is going through every single day of this war as free world leaders can’t get rid of their paralyzing fear of Vladimir Putin’s global intimidation. pic.twitter.com/FFDUqtTGQE
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 15, 2024
Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast and Dnipro:
Explosions reported in Dnipro!
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) April 15, 2024
Kharkiv:
These minutes, russian troops are launching missile strikes on Kharkiv Oblast! Multiple explosions have been reported.
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) April 15, 2024
Robotyne, Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
April, 2024. The village of Robotyne, Zaporizhzhia region.
There is not a single undamaged house left here. russian terrorists destroy everything on their way.
The russian invaders must be stopped and punished.📹: Operational Command South pic.twitter.com/VDQ9i8EKBi
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 15, 2024
Serebryansky Forest, Luhansk Oblast:
Serebryansky Forest.
The hellscape of the Russian war. pic.twitter.com/Cm7qbKeBTR— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 15, 2024
Moscow:
🇷🇺 Gerasimov said that Russian troops will use the experience they gained during their “special military operation” in Ukraine to prepare CSTO troops.
Ukraine is just a warm-up for the Russian war machine. Every next war will get worse. pic.twitter.com/Ciy5eoDbq1
— Victoria (@victoriaslog) April 15, 2024
She says there is a feeling in the Israeli security establishment that Israel cannot afford not to retaliate. (not verbatim)
— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) April 15, 2024
you can see the Harel event https://t.co/unYNXHMj57
— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) April 15, 2024
Here’s the full video:
So if Israel decides to go War of the Cities, what sort of defenses does the Iranian theocracy have (besides some impressively hardened facilities and a scaldingly comprehensive disregard for their citizens’ lives)? I have read they have pretty solid air defenses, but I don’t know if that refers specifically to aircraft, or includes everything else.
Because if one side has defenses, however imperfect, and the other does not…that is a fire Iran may regret playing wwith. Along with a great many others.
Here’s something some guy named Silverman wrote about this back in 2018. That guy’s making me look bad!
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
First some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense:
There is always a place for kindness.
📹: @United24media pic.twitter.com/NsCuzMkhVl
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 15, 2024
Little dusty in here.
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns 🤝🏻 #дснс #патрондснс
Open thread!
J. Arthur Crank
I am beginning to think that Speaker Johnson is not very good at his job, or at least what his job is supposed to be.
It is like he stole all of your ideas years before you had them. That happens to me a lot.
YY_Sima Qian
I guess I spoke too soon yesterday. It does seem the majority of the Israeli natsec establishment (fat beyond just Bibi) really wants a regional war, or is too obtuse to avoid one.
& Kuleba is absolutely right. If the US wants to dissuade Ukraine from some course of action or another, it 1st needs to establish leverage, such as by coming through w/ substantial material aid now or very soon.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: As I’ve been saying here off and on for months, Galant and Gantz and Eizenkot are more hawkish than Bibi. Galant is actually more politically conservative, where Gantz’s only real constituency is the military and security services. The only difference between the three of them is that Eizenkot has made some moderate statements since his son and nephew were killed in action in Gaza hours apart back in January. The only difference between the three of them and Bibi is that none of them are criminally corrupt, nor megalomaniacal assholes.
Ksmiami
Republicans can go to hell. Traitors all. Trash people
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: You are right, of course. I suppose we all have to wait for the nature of the Israeli response. If it is another high profile strike that forces Iran to respond in kind yet again, then there is no end to the escalation.
It’s one thing to be hawkish, it’s another to be myopic & irrational.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Comrade Bukharin
Dudette’s gotta go? WTF is that supposed to mean?
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Another Scott
@Comrade Bukharin: Adam doesn’t like Jake Sullivan.
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jay
@Comrade Bukharin:
It’s Adam’s way of calling him a pussy.
Sullivan mentions “ruZZian Escalation” more than the Kremlin and their mouth pieces as a reason not to do anything.
MaryLou
The Biden administration seems to have made it clear that Israel gets no US aid vs. Iran EXCEPT for defensive purposes. If Israel ignores that, would the US again do the heavy lifting that they did over the weekend to organize the Saudis and the Jordanians to help shoot down Iranian missiles and drones? It was largely due to American efforts that only one Israeli civilian died. Granted that US public opinion has turned pretty decisively vs. Israel because of footage from Gaza, it seems foolish for Israel to rush into revenge and retribution mode. IF Israel counterstrikes now, what does the US do?
Comrade Bukharin
@Another Scott: This was in regard to “Harris’ strategic malpractice”.
Is the implication that she’s gone rogue?
Another Scott
@Comrade Bukharin: I didn’t read it that way, but it was a tiny comment at the end of a lot of text.
Dunno.
YMMV.
Cheers,
Scott.
Gin & Tonic
@Another Scott: @Jay: Since the comment in question comes between a lengthy report on Kamala Harris’s visit with Zelensky and Adam’s remark about “Harris’s strategic malpractice” I suspect “Dudette” is Madame VP.
I know Adam is no fan of Sullivan’s, but I also suspect he’s above mis-gendering jokes.
Peke Daddy
Adam, you have pointed out the exhaustion of the IDF from the Gaza operation. Iran’s surrogates in Lebanon and Syria aren’t insignificant. Any action Israel takes can’t involve taking and holding territory, but using air power. This action will either be sufficiently damaging in and of itself to end the cycle, or lead to another round. With US being clear about not now joining the direct fight against Iran, could all this lead to an action that would force US involvement, up to and including Israel being forced into a corner and threatening nukes? Iran could come off as the threatened party if it considered the matter finished, and Israel pushed to the point it busted out nuke production. Echoes the Pentagon’s efforts to force JFK into a position of inevitable conventional overstretch to resort to nuclear attack.
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
except that we know that Sullivan is the one pushing “ruZZian escalation” hard in the Biden Admin.
Every drag on the Biden Admin support for Uraine from Patriots, F-16’s to Abrams is Sullivan’s doing
Apparently, Israeli and Iranian escalation doesn’t bother him at all.
Adam L Silverman
@Comrade Bukharin: Harris’s tag line in reference to Trump during the 2020 election was “Dude’s gotta go!” As in Trump needed to be voted out of office. This was a riff on her tag line, directed at her, because of the stupid thing she told Zelenskyy.
I trust that clear’s this up?
Before anyone starts, I’m voting for Biden and Harris again. If you all recall, she was my preference in 2020.
Comrade Bukharin
@Gin & Tonic: The Dudette reports to the Dude so he must go also. That leaves us with Trump. I realize the frustration level on this nightly thread is off the charts but we have a binary choice.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: Put your money on myopic and irrational. Gantz and Eisenkot wanted to strike back during Saturday night’s attack. It was Bibi who didn’t want to.
Gin & Tonic
@YY_Sima Qian: Kuleba is a very smart guy. I’m quite close to someone who worked for him, and he’s, if anything, more impressive up close.
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman:
Not really.
Because the only way she would go is if she wasn’t re-elected.
Poor form, old chap.
Cheers,
Scott.
Urza
Splitting Israel could be used against Democrats in the fall if they support Ukraine but not Israel. And also Dems voting for Israeli aid can be used to make the other faction stay home. Its good politics for Johnson, just evil all around which is still good politics for him.
One must hope his right flank screws him as usual.
Dagaetch
@Adam L Silverman: but I doubt Harris was off the reservation. Isn’t it likely that she was asked to deliver that message? So it’s not fair to blame her individually for the administration policy, imo.
Another Scott
Defense.gov:
I suspect those last 2 words were the nut of the conversation.
Cheers,
Scott.
cain
Please kindly not use terms like “off the reservation” – I’ve caught myself using that myself and we shouldn’t really be using it. I’ve instead used “drive off the golf course”. Thanks!
Dagaetch
@cain: thanks for pointing that out. One of those phrases I’ve honestly just never given any thought to before. Will stop using it!
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
Netanyahu is playing the world like a fiddle whilst Ukraine & Gaza burn. He did this deliberately, & it’s paying off. My disgust runneth over.
Thank you Adam.
wjca
One could wish for a conversation with MVP which had gone this way: “We feel compelled to publicly ask you not to hit Russian oil infrastructure. And, if/when you do, to publicly deplore it. Ignore us.”
If wishes were horses….
YY_Sima Qian
@Gin & Tonic: Seeing Kuleba maneuvering among his interlocutors, be they allies, “Straddlers” or adversaries, & always driven by the sole objective of advancing Ukrainian national interest, very impressive diplomat indeed.
bookworm1398
I don’t understand, if Johnson brings separate Ukraine and Israel aid bills to the floor, both should pass right? Different pattern of votes, but there are 50/60 Republicans who would vote for Ukraine only I believe. Taiwan would be the one hurt by this.
YY_Sima Qian
@bookworm1398: Any package giving support to Taiwan will pass overwhelmingly, perhaps w/ the largest margin of the three.
YY_Sima Qian
Interesting reporting from Kommersant.ru (machine translated) on Chinese banks refusing Russian transactions since the end of Mar. There is no sign that the PRC is throwing Putin under the bus, & while the US has threatened secondary sanctions against banks that conduct transaction supporting sanctioned trade w/ Russia, there has been no tightening in Q1 that I can recall, so not sure why so many of the Chinese banks are so spooked. The ones cited in the article are major Chinese banks that have substantial exposure to Western markets & conduct a lot of transactions in USD.
Honestly, I am also very surprised that the PRC has not designated small banks w/o Western exposure to hand transactions w/ Russia. That has been the historical practice w/ Iran & NK. The PRC government is also uncharacteristically not protesting US financial coercion (if that is what is happening).
Regardless, this might slow down Russia’s regeneration of its MIC & affect its civilian economy for a few months until alternative pathway are developed.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Are the payments in ruZZian bought yuan, a stable currency, or ruZZian rubles, ( an unstable, declining currency)?
if if it’s rubles, and payment terms are 90/60/30 days, the vendor can lose a lot of money on the deal.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Russia is mostly settling its trade w/ the PRC in Yuans. It is trying to settle trade w/ other countries in Yuans, as well, but India at least balked & insisted on settling in Rupees.
Jesse
Thank you, Adam.
daveNYC
I mean, no you don’t? Iran gave a heads up to Turkey and got feedback from the USA on the scale of their attack. This allowed the USA to wrangle additional air defence assets into the region to help with the shoot-downs. This was about as polite and courteous an attack as one could manage, and thinking that you have to respond to it in some manner is bugfuck warmongering.
YY_Sima Qian
@daveNYC: I am skeptical that Iran actually planned for or expected the barrage to do so little damage, but Iran clearly was also not acting to maximize damage. The point of the exercise was the demonstration that Iran can indeed choose to target Israel itself & make Israel sweat, & future circumstances may not be so stacked for the defense.
daveNYC
Iran probably was hoping to do some damage to the air base, but you don’t launch a bunch of slow-ass Shaheds from as far away as Iran while telling everyone that you’re going to do it if you’re really trying to cause damage. This was a warning that next time there will be shorter flight times and no forewarning that will let Israel’s allies bring in extra air defences.
The idea that Israel’s government has looked at the attack and the results and decided that they absolutely need to punch back is pretty bad, because this attack was basically designed to not trigger an Israeli retaliatory strike.
Bill Arnold
Via a Times of Israel daily roundup
This is a game that the Iranian government often plays; delay responses/revenge/retribution and make the nature of it(them) ambiguous, and observe their enemies’ long span of mild fear.
If the Israelis play the same ambiguity game here, good, very good. Instant and roughly predictable responses are for those with insect-style minds.
YY_Sima Qian
@Bill Arnold: Indeed. There are anonymous US officials claiming that Israel will go after Iranian proxies in Syria & Lebanon. If so, at least the likelihood of things escalating into a ruinous regional war is lowered, until the next escalation by either side.
However, I am seeing conflicting things out of Israel, so I can’t tell what is genuine signaling & what are talking points aimed at managing domestic audiences, the US & the West, the Sunni Arab states, & Iran.
YY_Sima Qian
More sense out of Jerusalem. Of course, there is no one outside of Israel supportive of Israel escalating the tit for tat further, except for the usual suspects in the US.
YY_Sima Qian
That explains a lot of the incoherence coming out of Jerusalem.
wjca
It also seems like it might have an impact, or at least limit the duration and scope, of the expected summer offensive.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
BREAKING Dzhankoi Airbase in temporarily occupied Crimea just under went a huge explosion. Several actually. Looks like an ammo dump was hit, because it was extremely bright.