Air raid alerts for Kharkiv have just gone up over the past 1/2 hour (as I type this it is currently 6:35 PM EDT).
Last night in comments, way2blue asked:
Adam, I am out of cycle for your evening posts, but still wanted to ask a question I hope see…
A few days back you embedded a news bit about F16 pilot training. Indicating that the handful of Ukrainian pilots being trained wouldn’t be ‘battle ready’ till much later this year. As they are young (21-23?) and inexperienced. Did I remember that correctly? I’d thought that experienced pilots with a foundation of English were being trained…
Thanks always for gathering updates that keep us grounded—even when it’s hard to read.
First, you are most welcome. To answer your question, yes, that was me. The bottom line is that it was specifically referring to the group of least experienced/youngest Ukrainian pilots. Instead of being ready by June, that cohort is more likely to be ready by August. Here’s the details from Euromaidan Press:
Ten Ukrainian pilots are currently at an airbase in southwest France, learning the basics of aerial combat as part of the training for 45 F-16s arriving in Ukraine this summer, BFMTV reports.
After the United States approved last fall, countries including the Netherlands, Denmark, and Romania are helping train Ukrainian F-16 pilots to counter Russia’s air superiority. Currently, twelve Ukrainian pilots are being trained in Denmark, Britain, and the US, and are expected to be combat-ready this summer. However, upon their return, only about six of the promised 45 F-16s from European allies may have been delivered, as per media reports.
The beginning of training in France was announced on 12 April by French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu, who stated that future Ukrainian fighter pilots likely to operate American F-16 aircraft are starting their training in southern France with the French Air Force. France doesn’t operate F-16s.
The young pilots are the ones receiving training abroad because the experienced aviators have remained in Ukraine to fly the fleet’s aircraft amid the ongoing all-out Russo-Ukrainian war.
BFMTV reports that this summer, 45 F-16s are expected to be delivered to the Ukrainian army. According to the think tank Ifri, Denmark will provide 19 jets – 14 in 2024 and five in 2025. Norway is reportedly contributing 22, with the remaining aircraft sourced from the Netherlands and Belgium.
While some pilots are trained in Europe, with France training a portion of them, the technical teams, including mechanics, are likely to be trained in the USA, according to BFMTV. Each aircraft requires a crew of about a dozen people, including the pilots.
Earlier, the Ukrainian Air Force spokesman reported that two Ukrainian pilot groups were refining their F-16 skills in Denmark and the USA, with another group transitioning from the UK to France for light aircraft training. He also mentioned that Ukrainian F-16 technical personnel are being trained to eventually instruct their peers in Ukraine.
The Kyiv Independent has more on the three cohorts of pilots in training.
There are three separate programs for pilots at different levels. Earlier this month, Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat said that six advanced pilots are already flying F-16s in Denmark and should be ready to fight in the spring. The least experienced group is training in the U.K. — they might not be ready until 2025.
An intermediate group training in Arizona is expected to graduate later this year, according to a Jan. 4 briefing by the U.S. State Department.
Ukrainian ground crews are also learning to service the aircraft.
The first batch of planes may be coming from the Netherlands. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte on Dec. 22 said that his government started preparing the initial 18 fighter jets, while a spokesperson from the Dutch Defense Ministry told NOS that more jets may be delivered at a later date. There have been no updates since then.
Denmark had pledged to supply six planes by the end of 2023, but the delivery date has been reportedly pushed back six months. Copenhagen said it would give 19 planes in total.
Danish and Dutch officials have said the delivery schedule depends on the readiness of Ukraine’s infrastructure and pilots, among other factors.
Belgium’s defense minister has promised several jets, which would likely arrive in 2025. According to Norwegian broadcaster NRK, Norway plans to send between five and 10 planes, but neither the total number or the delivery schedule has been fixed.
Experts told the Kyiv Independent that Ukraine will likely have at least some F-16s operational in late spring or early summer.
If everything goes right, then the Ukrainians should have six F-16s sometime by late May or early June and a group of pilots to fly them and ground crews to service them. The remainder of planes, pilots, and ground crews will then become available in bits and bobs over time into 2025. Six F-16s with pilots and ground crews is better than no F-16s, pilots, or ground crews, but it’s not what the popular perception has been about what is happening. This is part of the reason I have been so hard on the Biden nat-sec team. These planes, pilots, and ground crews were needed no later than spring of 2023. Had the training started in the late summer/early fall of 2022, then when the Biden administration finally overcame its fears in the fall of 2023 and decided to allow allies and partners to provide F-16s to Ukraine, they would have been ready as soon as the announcement was made. Instead, several months were lost figuring out who was going to do what in terms of training, determining which planes would go, figuring out what they needed in terms of upgrades and service, then doing the upgrades and service, then doing the training, etc. By the time all of the promised F-16s get to Ukraine it’ll be sometime in the spring or early summer of 2025. Two years after they would have had the greatest theater strategic impact. That’s if everything goes right. It never does. I’ll leave it there before I write something that hurts someone’s feelings.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
War for Ukraine Day 796: (Some of) You Have Questions, I (May) Have AnswersPost + Comments (54)
