(Image by NEIVANMADE)
As many of you know, Ukrainian journalist Mstyslav Chernov reported a video documentary for PBS Frontline and the Associated Press entitled 20 Days in Mariupol. It was originally released for theater viewing, but is now available on PBS’s YouTube channel. Here is the full documentary:
The description provided with it:
Ukrainian journalist Mstyslav Chernov and his colleagues risk their lives to document Russia’s siege of Mariupol in this FRONTLINE/AP documentary. The Guardian calls it “a brave, visceral, merciless masterpiece.” The New York Times says, “Essential. A relentless and truly important documentary.” This journalism is made possible by viewers like you. Support your local PBS station here: https://www.pbs.org/donate The award-winning documentary “20 Days in Mariupol” follows Chernov as he and his Ukrainian AP colleagues become trapped in the besieged city of Mariupol, struggling to continue their work documenting atrocities of the Russian invasion. The last international journalists remaining in the city as Russian forces close in, Chernov, photographer Evgeniy Maloletka and field producer Vasilisa Stepanenko capture what become some of the most defining images of the war: dying children, mass graves, the bombing of a maternity hospital, and more. “20 Days in Mariupol” draws on Chernov’s daily news dispatches and personal footage of his own country at war. The result is a raw and haunting account of a journalist risking his life to share the truth of the conflict with the world. Made in partnership with The Associated Press, “20 Days in Mariupol” has had a decorated run on the 2023 film festival circuit — including at the Sundance Film Festival, the International Documentary Film Festival Amsterdam (IDFA), the Sheffield Film Festival and the DocEdge Film Festival. “20 Days in Mariupol” is a FRONTLINE production with The Associated Press. The director, cinematographer and writer is Mstyslav Chernov. The field producer is Vasilisa Stepanenko. The still photographer is Evgeniy Maloletka. The editor is Michelle Mizner. The composer is Jordan Dykstra. The producers are Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner, Raney Aronson-Rath (FRONTLINE’s editor-in-chief and executive producer) and Derl McCrudden (AP’s vice president of news and head of global news production). “20 Days in Mariupol” is distributed domestically by PBS Distribution and internationally by Dogwoof. Explore additional reporting related to “20 Days in Mariupol” on our website: https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/do… #Documentary #UkraineWar #MariupolSiege Subscribe on YouTube: http://bit.ly/1BycsJW
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FRONTLINE is produced at GBH in Boston and is broadcast nationwide on PBS. Funding for FRONTLINE is provided through the support of PBS viewers and by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. Additional support for FRONTLINE is provided by the Abrams Foundation, Park Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Heising-Simons Foundation, and the FRONTLINE Journalism Fund, with major support from Jon and Jo Ann Hagler on behalf of the Jon L. Hagler Foundation, and additional support from Koo and Patricia Yuen.
There is a full transcript option available if you click through to YouTube.
It is.
It's a terrible thing to see, especially for those who, like myself, have Mariupol as a large part of life before February 24.
But… the world needs to see what they've done to our city. https://t.co/XzJc2hquiF— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 24, 2023
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
A portion of today’s Staff meeting was devoted to a complex of issues for which our soldiers and society expect fair answers – address by the President of Ukraine
24 November 2023 – 19:09
I wish you good health, dear Ukrainians!
Just concluded negotiations with the President of Latvia. It was a substantive conversation. We talked about the defensive support for our state, for our soldiers. About the sustainability of such support. In particular, we discussed the production and supply of ammunition – 155mm artillery – as well as the issue of medevac – special armored vehicles for evacuating our wounded soldiers. I am grateful to Latvia for its unwavering support for our European prospects – all the work towards the start of negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the European Union. Today, I informed Mr. President about our country’s implementation of the European Commission’s recommendations and our readiness for a political decision in December, as promised by the European side, opening the negotiation process. We expect this decision and the fulfillment of the European Union’s promise. We discussed in detail with Mr. President mechanics of preparing the relevant EU decision.
I also spoke today with Mark Rutte, the Prime Minister of the Netherlands. Thanked him for the support provided to Ukraine, for the recent decision on an additional EUR 2 billion for the next year. This is an important signal for other partners. Protecting our European way of life must continue, and unity in Europe is a key element for this. Mark and I also discussed our joint work on the Peace Formula, as well as important humanitarian initiatives like our Grain from Ukraine program. We are working together to preserve stability in critical regions of the world and thus protect our continent from waves of crises.
Today, I chaired an important and challenging meeting of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief’s Staff. Concerning not only the current situation on the front, although that was, as always, one of the main points. Our defensive, our offensive actions. Avdiivka, Donetsk direction, Maryinka, Kupiansk direction, southern directions. A significant part of today’s meeting was dedicated to a complex of issues for which our soldiers and the entire society expect fair answers. This includes mobilization and demobilization, rotations in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Issues regarding conscripts who were called to service before the start of the full-scale invasion. Of course, special attention was given to the situation with the work of the medical military commissions and military enlistment offices. What soldiers talk about, what commanders discuss must be resolved. Today, there were initial reports on this from Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny, Minister of Defense Umerov, Minister of Internal Affairs Klymenko, Minister of Health Liashko, and Chief of the General Staff Shaptala. I expect a more thorough analysis of each of these issues by both the government and the military and concrete proposals for state decisions.
I thank everyone who cares about Ukraine and Ukrainians! I thank each and every one who fights for the country and works for Ukrainian interests!
Glory to Ukraine!
The cost:
Canadian combat medic Joshua Mayers confirmed killed in action in Ukraine.
True hero, will never be forgotten, rest in peace!
We will keep fighting and avenge you brother, will see you in Valhalla🇨🇦🇨🇦🇺🇦
📸credits: @northernprovisions (IG) pic.twitter.com/LVKt7TgwnH
— Black Maple Company (@BlackMapleCo) November 24, 2023
Ottowa:
Today, 🇨🇦 Prime Minister Justin Trudeau @JustinTrudeau announced that Canada was donating over 11,000 assault rifles and over 9 million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine.
We are grateful to our Canadian friends for their staunch support!
Together, we will win!
🇺🇦🤝🇨🇦— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 24, 2023
Copenhagen:
🇩🇰🇺🇦 Denmark will increase its military support for Ukraine by $336 million this year, the @Forsvarsmin reports.
We are grateful to our Danish partners for supporting Ukraine in the struggle for freedom.
Together, we are stronger!
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 24, 2023
Ukraine via Vilnius:
/2. Two launchers of the NASAMS air defense system provided by Lithuania in November as part of the next package of defense assistance to Ukraine have already been put on combat duty.https://t.co/LgVcgNUwSW
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 24, 2023
Berlin:
Germany will deploy an additional Patriot air defense system in Ukraine this winter. This was stated by the German ambassador to Ukraine, in an interview with "Ukrinform"https://t.co/sTSRN37MEE pic.twitter.com/z2hTntuur9
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 24, 2023
While it is a good thing that Germany, Lithuania, Denmark, and Canada are increasing their support, we are fast approaching a crisis. Politico reports on the the resistance Trudeau is facing in Canada: (emphasis mine)
Justin Trudeau is blaming the MAGA movement and Republican ideology for eroding support for Ukraine.
The Canadian prime minister used a press conference with visiting European leaders to connect a gambit by his Conservative rivals in Ottawa to hard-right rhetoric in the United States and Europe, which he said is “starting to parrot Russian disinformation and misinformation and propaganda.”
Canada is home to 1.4 million Ukrainian Canadians and boasts the second-largest Ukrainian diaspora after Russia. Until now, politicians of all stripes have been united behind Ukraine.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and his party turned heads in Parliament earlier this week when they voted as a bloc against legislation that would update the Canada-Ukraine Free Trade Agreement. The bill passed anyway with the aid of Bloc Québécois and NDP MPs for study at the committee level.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed the new deal when he met with Trudeau in Ottawa this fall. Ukraine asked Canada to fast-track the modernized legislation to help lure investments to rebuild the war-torn country.
In a surprise move, Conservatives voted against legislation that would enact those changes. The party claimed that the new trade deal with Ukraine would impose Canada’s controversial carbon tax which Poilievre has vowed to kill.
No such wording actually exists in the document. In fact, the Eastern European country has had its own carbon mechanism since 2011.
Ukrainian officials were taken aback by the sudden politicization of a trade deal first championed by former Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
Trudeau called the Conservatives opposition to the deal “frankly absurd.”
During Friday’s press briefing he called out what he described as a bigger trend behind the Conservatives’ twist — using the moment to tie his political foes to Trumpian influences.
“The real story is the rise of a right-wing American, MAGA influence thinking that has made Canadian Conservatives, who used to be among the strongest defenders of Ukraine … turn their backs on something Ukraine needs in its hour of need,” Trudeau told reporters in St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador.
Support for Ukraine has evolved into a crisis in Washington, with calls from congressional members to pump the brakes on U.S. aid to the country. The position, most evident among a hardline group of Republicans, reflects former President Donald Trump’s “America First” ethos on foreign policy and hostility to foreign aid.
Politico also has the details of how things are getting worse for Ukraine in DC: (emphasis mine)
Ukraine’s strongest supporters in Washington are looking at the three-week sprint after Thanksgiving as their best remaining hope of getting aid to the country.
But as Democrats continue to publicly express hope for the Biden administration’s nearly $106 billion funding request for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, they also remain vexed about how to move a bill through the Republican-run House.
The dynamics of the GOP House have alarmed the West Wing. Speaker Mike Johnson has indicated that he’ll at some point bring a vote on Ukraine, but those in the White House do not yet have a clear read on the new Republican leader or his negotiating style, according to two senior aides not authorized to speak publicly about private deliberations.
Few in Biden’s orbit have ever met Johnson, a religious conservative who was largely unknown until his stunning ascent to the speakership. And while the West Wing didn’t appreciate former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s grandstanding, they did feel like he eventually wanted to deal — and they are less sure about Johnson, according to the officials. Moreover, the same fringe group of Republicans who ousted McCarthy wield that same power over Johnson — and they are largely opposed to helping Ukraine, making a path to deal that much more difficult.
“People are well aware that if a vote were put up in the House of Representatives today, it would pass with an overwhelming majority of members — that the issue is not the level of support as it is getting to that vote,” said Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.). “Because of the political conditions and the change in leadership, getting the vote has been the hard part.”
On two occasions already, Democrats tried but failed to get aid to Ukraine in a must-pass funding bill. With another deadline to spark action not coming until the latest stopgap funding bills expire in late January and early February, many of Congress’ strongest Ukraine backers fear the country can’t wait that long.
“I don’t know that Ukraine can survive until February of 2024,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said. “My sense is they start to run short on ammunition in the next several weeks.”
Believing there is an immediate need, Ukraine advocates are gearing up for a standalone Senate vote on funding when they return from break. Should that vote happen, it would provide a massive test both for the administration’s ability to work Capitol Hill and one of the bedrock elements of the president’s foreign policy agenda.
But the main obstacle still remains: what to do about Republican opposition.
Since passage of the last Ukraine supplemental, Kyiv’s counteroffensive has stalled and conservative support in Washington has crumbled with the GOP’s leader, Donald Trump, opposing it. The outbreak of war in the Middle East has led to the addition of aid to Israel — and growing demands by progressive Democrats for a cease-fire and conditions on aid to Israel.
While support for Israel has strong support in both chambers, senators and administration officials insist that Israel and Ukraine funding remain together.
The thornier challenge is meeting the Republican demand that the package address border policy. The administration’s request includes funding for border security, but the GOP insists it include policy changes to stem the number of people crossing the border, too.
Democratic Ukraine supporters have embraced the idea that they must include border policy reforms. And while they don’t like marrying the two unrelated issues, they do see an upside if they’re able to address the political thorny issue of the border.
“This is really important funding. I think it’s important for the civilized world to take a stand against dictators like Vladimir Putin and terrorist groups like Hamas,” Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) said. “And I also think we have a failed policy at the southern border, and we need to look at ways to fix it.”
“President Biden and the leaders in the Senate, both Republican and Democrat, are rock solid in their support of Ukraine,” Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), who is close with Biden, said Tuesday on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.”
“We have to bear down, get this done and get this supplemental passed soon because the brave Ukrainians who are fighting as winter is coming are looking at losing the supplies they’ve needed for ammunition, for missiles, for drones, for defense, for armor, and we cannot possibly afford to abandon Ukraine,” he added. “If our Republican colleagues demand too much in this negotiation, we won’t be able to get it passed in the Senate and then in the House.”
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has said border policy must be included in the deal in order to get Ukraine funding through Congress. Inside the White House, McConnell has emerged as an unlikely hero for his steadfast support of Ukraine, which has helped, to a large degree, keep his party in line. But the West Wing has growing fears that the Kentucky senator’s grip on his party has slipped, according to the two senior aides granted anonymity to speak about private discussions.
More at both links.
🇺🇦Ukraine’s Air Force: Russia may have stoсked up nearly up to 900 missiles for future strikes on Ukraine’s energy grid
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 24, 2023
The winter campaign has begun in Ukraine. Russia will soon ramp back up its targeting of civilian power generation and transmission infrastructure just as it did last winter. Ukrainian stocks of ammunition and other material will continue to be drawn down. The Biden administration, because the GOP controls the House and a third to a half of that caucus opposes further aid to Ukraine. There’s also about a third of GOP senators with the same position. We are now twenty-one months into this war. The US defense industrial base is still not on a war footing. Nor do we have a permanent mechanism to ensure Ukraine is supplied. Instead we’ve continually dribbled out just enough support to ensure that Ukraine may not loose, Russia may not win, but not to ensure that Ukraine can win. Please spare me the comments about how long it takes to ramp up production. I know how the defense enterprise works, I’ve been through the course at the senior leader college. I agree, it does take time for the defense industrial base to ramp up production, especially when it isn’t incentivized, when it isn’t put on a war footing. It’s a convenient excuse to allow those making it to sleep comfortable at night that everything that can be reasonably done is being done. We are in the middle of a world war! The single largest kinetic theater of that war is Ukraine. The rest of it is either being contested using low intensity warfare through the application of military power or through the elements of national power other than military power. It is time to rise to the occasion, put the defense industrial base on a war footing, publicly recognize and admit the actual national security challenges we’re facing, and do what has to be done. Or we can keep fiddling while Ukrainians die on our and Europe’s behalf.
Putin & Russia don't give a shit about NATO as something of a military threat.
They don't care about it — at all, at all, at all.
And they never did.
Just like now that Finland is part of NATO and Sweden is coming soon, the Kremlin couldn't care less.
Because, unlike…
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 24, 2023
Putin & Russia don’t give a shit about NATO as something of a military threat.
They don’t care about it — at all, at all, at all.
And they never did.
Just like now that Finland is part of NATO and Sweden is coming soon, the Kremlin couldn’t care less.
Because, unlike independent thinkers on X, they are evil but not stupid, and they always knew the West is most obviously of no threat to Russia.
They always knew NATO & the West were way too heterogeneous, relaxed, comfortable, disarmed, unprepared, and too busy minding their own business in a world where a war of conquest is a stupid idea that just doesn’t work — especially when it comes to messing with the world’s top nuclear power.
The only way Russia cares about Ukraine’s “NATO membership” is that it effectively removes Ukraine from a list of countries against which the Kremlin can unleash yet another Great Patriotic Special Military Operation, thus prolonging and justifying its never-ending rule over Russia — you know, the fortress all surrounded by enemies since the dawn of time.
So next time they talk about Ukrainian “neutrality” — let me give you a simple translation: “We need Ukraine out of NATO so that we can conquer it and triumphally bring its severed head on a plate to the Russian public — until the euphoria dies down again and we have to decide who’s next.”
Avdiivka:
An episode from the Battle of Avdiivka
by Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized.
No words.
I’m speechless, to be honest. pic.twitter.com/3ucafBysPs— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 24, 2023
Here’s a more detailed assessment from Tatarigami. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:
Despite dense cloud cover blocking satellite, drone, and optical surveillance of the Avdiivka battlefield, our team continued the analysis using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) systems. Here is what we learned about the current situation. 🧵Thread: pic.twitter.com/K4cTkWWpme
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 24, 2023
2/ Before we move further, let’s clarify what Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) is. It’s a technology that employs radar to generate images of the Earth’s surface. By capturing and processing reflected waves, SAR provides detailed imagery regardless of weather conditions or daylight3/
We combined SAR data with on-the-ground testimonials and open-source video materials to gain comprehensive insights.Some Key Observations
– Vehicle Reduction: In contrast to the initial month of assaults, russian forces are employing fewer vehicles in smaller numbers.
4/
– Tactical Shift: There’s a notable increase in the use of small tactical groups, consistently moving in the same areas despite prior losses.– Guided Aerial bombs: There is a consistent uptick in the use of guided aerial bombs by Russian forces.
5/
As we correctly predicted, worsened weather conditions have hindered russian overextended logistics routes. Consequently, this limitation made it difficult to develop initial successes, particularly in the northern sector of Avdiivka, notably around Berdychi.6/
Following an initial success north of Avdiivka, Russian forces extended their assaults for over a month. Despite tactical successes, they failed to establish persistent footholds in the AKHZ plant.7/
Recently, russians seized control of parts of the industrial zone south of Avdiivka. These gains were primarily attributed to continuous infantry assaults, posing potential challenges for Ukrainian defenders in the coming weeks8/
Russian forces persist in deploying small tactical groups, despite a high mortality rate. This sustained tactic, where one group follows another, has the potential to exhaust Ukrainian troops and compromise their positions over time9/
The deployment of cluster bombs, as well as 250-1500kg bombs equipped with the UMPK kit poses a significant problem. Despite them being inaccurate, they are still dangerous due to the big explosive charge, particularly problematic in urban areas, leading to severe destruction10/
In simpler terms, facing substantial losses and challenging weather, russians ramped up offensives using readily available resources—infantry, artillery, and aerial bombs.11/
They shifted their focus to AKHZ, Berychi, and the southern industrial zone, reducing the emphasis on the initial plan to encircle Avdiivka with mechanized forces—a development we anticipated.12/
Predicting future developments is challenging, hinging on russia’s ability to persist with deploying infantry without adequate cover. This attritional approach, aimed at wearing down defenders, makes it hard to provide any solid estimates.13/ If you found this post valuable, kindly consider liking and sharing the first message in this thread. Additionally, please follow us for future updates.
This analysis and images are made possible by your generous donations and subscriptions.
If you'd like to support the defenders of Avdiivka, I recommend checking @jana_skhidna , as she consistently raises funds for brigades and units in the area.https://t.co/O2fvQvtv02
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 24, 2023
That's a correct assessment. The MoD is not Wagner, and, to put it simply, they can't employ the same approach due to legal aspects and overall differences in tactical approaches. It failed in Vuhledar, but the situation in Avdiivka is different, making it hard to predict.
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 24, 2023
Nizhyn:
The city of Nizhyn.
This is after Oleksandr Matsiyevsky, the heroic Ukrainian soldier executed by Russians. #Glory pic.twitter.com/fbdoZzp2KO— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 24, 2023
Left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:
Magyar’s Birds are on the hunt!
Targeting Russian equipment on the left bank Kherson region. Video shows 2 destroyed tanks (one of them T-90M), couple of BTR-82 and BMP.
Video by the birds of Magyar unit. https://t.co/2Mxyc5Oqth pic.twitter.com/GrJgNztL9n— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 24, 2023
Elsewhere on the left bank of the Dnipro in Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:
After successful operations by Ukrainian troops on the left bank of the Dnipro, they obtained Russian military ID cards, which I have mapped. What did they all forget in Kherson Oblast? pic.twitter.com/8FzayyFzWq
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) November 24, 2023
Almost all of those Russian soldiers are most likely ethnic minorities based on where Maria Avdeeva has mapped their places of origin in Russia.
Krynky, left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:
Krynky, Ukraine. Servicemen of the Russian 26th Regiment would like to go on rotation after losing 3 companies of personnel. But instead, they're being sent to the islands. Looking for help from Shoygu. pic.twitter.com/rq65ZG39IR
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 24, 2023
Novomikhaylivka, Donetsk Oblast from OCT 2023:
October 2023, Novomikhaylivka, Donetsk Oblast. Russians assaulting a Ukrainian trench, blocking the lads in a dugout.
Coming to the rescue is a reserve group supported by a loitering drone. This saved the lives of all Ukrainians, although the position was eventually lost.… pic.twitter.com/X5ztQ5kveW
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 24, 2023
Dzankhoi, Russian occupied Crimea:
At night there was a reported drone attack on Russian base somewhere in Dzhankoi area, Crimea. As claimed, video shows the results of the attack. https://t.co/MoaPG8I4HJ pic.twitter.com/KRwm25LrUD
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 24, 2023
Russian occupied Crimea:
“Russian and Chinese business executives with government ties have held secret discussions on plans to build an underwater tunnel connecting Russia to Crimea in hopes of establishing a transportation route that would be protected from attacks by Ukraine” https://t.co/LBZ5UJgcLi
— max seddon (@maxseddon) November 24, 2023
Here’s the details from The Washington Post:
The negotiations underscore Russia’s determination to maintain its grip on Crimea, a peninsula that it annexed illegally in 2014, as well as Moscow’s growing dependence on China as a source of global support.
Constructing a tunnel near the existing bridge would face enormous obstacles, according to U.S. officials and engineering experts who said work of such magnitude, probably costing billions of dollars and taking years to complete, has never been attempted in a war zone.
But despite questions about the viability of the plan, experts said, Russia has clear reasons for pursuing it. Having failed to achieve a decisive victory in the war, said Alexander Gabuev, an expert on Moscow-Beijing relations at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Russia “faces [the] risk that Ukraine will try to disrupt the Kerch bridge for many years to come.”
The project would also pose political and financial risks for China, which has never officially recognized Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and whose companies could become ensnared in economic sanctions that the United States and the European Union have imposed on Moscow.
Nevertheless, intercepted emails indicate that one of China’s largest construction companies has signaled its willingness to participate. The messages were provided to The Washington Post by Ukrainian officials hoping to expose the project and China’s potential involvement. The authenticity of the messages was corroborated by other information separately obtained by The Post, including corporate registration files showing that a Russian-Chinese consortium involving individuals named in the emails was recently formed in Crimea.
Emails circulated among consortium officials in recent weeks mention meetings with Chinese delegates in Crimea. One dated Oct. 4 describes the Chinese Railway Construction Corporation, CRCC, as “ready to ensure the construction of railway and road construction projects of any complexity in the Crimean region.”
CRCC, a state-owned company, built many of the largest road and rail networks in China and has established substantial ties to Russia in recent years through projects including an extension of the Moscow subway system that was completed in 2021. The company did not respond to requests for comment.
A senior executive at the Russian-Chinese Consortium, based in the Crimean city of Sevastopol, refused to answer questions about the tunnel project when reached by a Post reporter.
Vladimir Kalyuzhny, a Russian businessman who is identified in documents as the general director of the consortium, dismissed the matter as “a lot of hot air” before declaring that he would not provide any information to the “enemy media” and abruptly ending the call.
His response was at odds with how the proposal has been depicted in internal emails. In a message sent last month to a Russian official who serves as one of Crimea’s main representatives in Moscow, Kalyuzhny said he had “a letter from our Chinese partners about the readiness of one of the largest companies in China, CRCC, to participate as a general contractor in the construction of a tunnel under the Kerch Strait.”
The email was addressed to Georgiy Muradov, who is listed as the permanent representative of the Republic of Crimea to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Muradov, who previously served as Russia’s ambassador to Cyprus, did not respond to requests for comment.
More at the link!
For you air defense enthusiasts:
Night work of the mobile fire group.
We are preparing. To defend Ukrainian cities and effectively shoot down the enemy's "Shaheds".
📸: 91st Separate Okhtyrka Operational Support Regiment pic.twitter.com/ssvAyRDCuZ
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 24, 2023
Just a brief note on the Israel-Hamas truce. Despite a Hamas rocket launch fifteen minutes after the start of the truce, which set of air raid alarms in Israel, cooler heads seem to be prevailing.
🚨🚨Air raid sirens in Gaza border area 16 minutes in. https://t.co/W1YubgITUL
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي💙 (@NTarnopolsky) November 24, 2023
As of now the truce appears to be holding. The first batch of Israeli women and children were released this morning on time and shortly thereafter the first group of Palestinian prisoners were also released. This evening the Israeli government received the list of the next eleven hostages to be released tomorrow. The Thai and Filipino hostages, almost all of whom worked at the kibbutzim, have also been released. None of the Israeli-American dual nationals were released today.
A few things to note. First, today’s group of hostages were all being held in southern Gaza:
💥Tidbits, unconfirmed reports: The 13 Israeli hostages to be released in the coming minutes were all held in southern Gaza. Twelve Thai citizens will be released with the 13 Israelis. Hamas will transmit the list of the next batch of Israeli citizens it plans to release at 4 pm. https://t.co/4aSoC94zOm
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي💙 (@NTarnopolsky) November 24, 2023
I expect tomorrow’s will be as well. Once these hostages, who are clearly in Hamas custody and easily accessible as part of the terms of the truce are turned over, I expect things will begin to get dicey.
Second, the female hostage that PIJ reported to have died in captivity last week was actually among those released today.
Hannah Katzir, 77, who days ago was reported dead by Islamic Jihad, was freed tonight. It's a miracle for her family and a nice surprise for us. What kind of psychological warfare is this? pic.twitter.com/794tD5Us4Z
— Louis Fishman لوي فيشمان לואי פישמן (@Istanbultelaviv) November 24, 2023
So that’s a bit of good news. I does make one wonder, if there’s another 77 year old Israeli woman who died in PIJ custody and they misidentified her and, as a result, there is going to be a very heartbroken family in the next few days.
Third, this has been a major victory for Hamas. In addition to the propaganda videos they’re releasing of their fighters carefully escorting elderly Israeli women into ICRC custody, they have now been elevated to state actor.
💥Joe Biden says Hamas' list of hostages to be released tomorrow will arrive shortly. *Hamas has never before experienced a thrill comparable to that of having the President of the United States as an opening act.* pic.twitter.com/E1Tk2IYeLI
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي💙 (@NTarnopolsky) November 24, 2023
What’s galling and appalling is to see Hamas elevated to a state actor in high level negotiations. It’s both a reflection of its tactics and motives. Turn terror into an asset and hostages into a potential key to its relevance and survival.
— Aaron David Miller (@aarondmiller2) November 24, 2023
Full disclosure: I know Aaron.
Fourth, and finally, I’m going to be referring to this using the operational, doctrinal, and legal term truce from now on because that is what it is. It is not a ceasefire, nor is it an armistice. Here’s the definition from the International Committee of the Red Cross’s casebook:
Agreement between belligerents to interrupt for a stated period the use of means of warfare in a specific locality or sector.
A truce should enable work to be done that is unrelated to the general conduct of war (e.g. removal of the wounded, burial of the dead, exchange of prisoners) or give military commanders time to ask for instructions regarding negotiations.
For so long as the suspension of hostilities remains in force, and failing agreement to the contrary, there must be no change in the positions of the opposing forces.
The effects of the suspension are limited to the territory stated in the relevant convention. Suspension of hostilities does not entail suspension of the application of international humanitarian law or put an end to the state of war, which subsists with all its legal consequences.
Now we wait to see how tomorrow goes and how long the truce lasts.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos today, so here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian MOD:
To be a combat medic is to save not only your brothers-in-arms but also the little friends among us.
📸: 60th Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/gtBjQmAPQ6
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 24, 2023
Cats are still cats even in the hottest areas of the battlefront.
📹: Khorne Group pic.twitter.com/65luLtNVX2
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 24, 2023
Open thread!
Ivan X
Thank you again for these reports, Adam.
Re Israel — I’ve heard you say repeatedly that this is a big win for Hamas. That may well be true, but is there any alternative to that outcome when they are holding Israeli civilians as hostages? They’re kind of holding the cards. Israel has to prioritize freeing those hostages as quickly as possible above all else — is there a version of this scenario in which Hamas doesn’t win as big and hostages are still released?
Also, do you have any idea why Israel could or would inflict as much damage as it has when those attacks could potentially harm or kill the hostages? Are they thinking that they would only be able to bring Hamas to the table after showing them overwhelming, unrelenting force?
Jay
Adam, thank you for Frontpaging 20 Days in Mariupol,
and everything else.
Alison Rose
I will watch the Mariupol documentary this weekend. I feel it is the least I can do, to try in some tiny way to bear witness.
As to the rest of it, the funding concerns, I don’t know what to say other than I hate Republicans, I hate conservative isolationist putin-loving assholes everywhere, and it is wrenching my heart in two to know that a whole lot of people simply don’t give a shit if Ukraine loses. Probably because they don’t understand what it would mean. Because they have never in their worthless lives given a single damn about anyone in the world besides themselves.
But I try to remind myself that if Ukrainians can hold onto hope, I should be able to do so, as well.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@Ivan X: You’re most welcome.
The second question informs the first. Israel has the military special forces and civilian operational security and intelligence services capabilities where they could’ve very carefully identified where the hostages were – if not all of them, then the majority of them – and then conducted precision hostage rescues to recover them. At the same time they could have used these precision capabilities to also hunt down, capture, or kill both Hamas’s leadership in Gaza, but also the perpetrators of the attacks on 7 OCT. Instead they decided they would do what they always do: mow the grass and then pound the rubble. Which both makes the precision work almost impossible and also makes the need to negotiate a truce and hostage for prisoners and humanitarian relief supplies necessary.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: You’re welcome.
Soprano2
I can’t help that it galls me that no matter what Biden does for some it’s never enough. He has to work with what’s happened, not some fantasy of what people think might happen. What do they think would be happening if TFG were president? No hostage releases or truces, that’s for sure.
Adam L Silverman
@Alison Rose: You’re welcome too.
Another Scott
ICYMI, repost. RFERL.org (from 11/21):
I’m sure Biden’s people, and NATO people, and Zelenskyy’s people, all know these things and are doing their best to take advantage of the opportunities in this situation as best they can.
We’ll see what happens.
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
ColoradoGuy
I’m beginning to suspect that a significant percentage of the population … on the right and left … think action movies are real. Superheroes swoop in on super helicopters, see through the rubble with magic-CGI vision, blow a hole in the ground, and levitate them to freedom.
They expect the President to have semi-divine powers that look like the movies. They pick up the phone and magic-CGI just happens. The MAGA folks expect Jesus/Hitler, and the Tankie Left expect Biden to snap his fingers and Republicans magically disappear… because he says so.
As CGI gets better, social-media algorithms get more potent, and Fox and the FSB get better and more pervasive, more and more people get swept into a fantasy reality.
Dan B
In the back of my mind there’s a feeling that American and other fossil fuel oligarchs are secretly aligning with Russia to maintain their dominance of “energy”, their frame for fossil fuels. They’re afraid of rapidly expanding renewable energy, particularly solar PV and emerging battery storage technologies. These oligarchs have the knowledge and capacity to buy these GOP ers who don’t care if there’s a genocide in Ukraine, or if it spills over into the baltics and Poland. The worship of power, and money, seems to be their inspiration.
Dan B
@Dan B: My gut feeling is that there may be an unholy, if indirect, alliance between Putin and figures like Koch that is the major reason for GOP are suffering from what corporate media is calling fatigue. There is likely money, American money in addition to Russian dark money and stealth persuasion.
Adam L Silverman
Air raid alerts up over all of eastern Ukraine!
Bill Arnold
@Adam L Silverman:
You’ve said this before; just wanted to thank you for clearly outlining. what the available choices were 6 weeks ago.
Nukular Biskits
Adam, I think I’ve asked (or posited) this before but, how on earth do you find the time to compile this information?
v/r
Jazz Bass
Adam, thank you very much for your constant coverage of the war.
Any suggestions on how to effectively convey this message to our government (executive and legislative)? I know that we are still unsure if the next supplemental package will even get a vote, so this may sounds premature and too optimistic. However, I want to increase the chances that our government is able to put the industrial base on war footing if/when the opportunity arrives – I’m assuming that this is not something that can be done by the executive alone.
Adam L Silverman
@Nukular Biskits: Depending on the night, they can take two or three hours
To more seriously answer, basically I’m very very good at finding, vetting, digesting, synthesizing, and integrating information into formats that are useful for others.
Adam L Silverman
@Jazz Bass: You’re most welcome.
I honestly don’t know. I suppose you could send letters to the President, but I don’t know if they’ll do any good. Same with your representative and senator. However, that also depends on what congressional district and state you live in.
Alison Rose
@Adam L Silverman: I thought maybe you had cloned yourself.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
YY_Sima Qian
Not all of the U.S.’ defense industry need to go into war footing, indeed most do not. Just that producing 155 mm howitzer shells & M31 rockets to start.
Another Scott
@YY_Sima Qian:
ICYMI, the US is working on increasing 155mm shell production. More details are here (I don’t see any comments by you on that thread).
Cheers,
Scott.
YY_Sima Qian
I am very skeptical that the CRCC will follow through on joining the construction of a tunnel to connect Crimea. Chinese construction companies had declined to participate in the building of the Kerch Bridge after 2014, and now they will do so in a time of open hostilities & heightened geopolitical tensions, & when Ukraine has demonstrated that it could reach out and disrupt activities in the Kerch Strait?
The CRCC is a huge conglomerate w/ projects across the world, both the Global North & the Global South, & surely does a lot of transactions in USD. No way the tunnel project is worth jeopardizing or even complicating all of these other projects. The PRC is looking to stabilizing relations w/ the U.S. & the EU for the time being so that the CPC regime can focus on managing the ongoing economic gear shifting & prevent a stall. Whatever additional chits the PRC might gain w/ Putin surely does not outweigh these other considerations.
Adam L Silverman
@Alison Rose: One of me is one too many.
Adam L Silverman
@AlaskaReader: You’re welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: And it is still too slow.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
There are also the slight problem of geological conditions for a tunnel
Maybe ruZZia can contract it out to Hamas.
YY_Sima Qian
@Another Scott: I did read your comment at the time. To me, that is still a lackadaisical peacetime pace of expansion, & even 100K shells per month is far from satisfying Ukraine’s needs for sustained offensive operations. Further, some of the capacity expansion will be in India (why?), & I don’t see the Indian government allowing shells made there to be sent to Ukraine.
The good news is that Russian expenditure of artillery shell also far outstrips production, even considering expansion plans, but they can get some supply from NK to make up the short fall.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: They could just get Musk to build a hyperloop. Which, based on the video I’ve seen from Vegas, is one lane and you can only go 5 mph through it.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: The Biden administration’s senior natsec team is convinced that Modi can be a reliable ally in regard to the PRC. The 155mm franchise in India is part of that initiative.
They are in for a very rude awakening. But, given that his natsec team seems to enjoy that happening to them over and over, I’m not surprised.
Traveller
Dear Adam I would particularly like to thank you for the “X” post from Illia Ponomarenko . I have posted this around, my travel place, etc, but I disagree with this being an example of how horrible Russian Soldiers are in abandoning their wounded comrade. (as most people are saying in that thread).
We don’t know how long they have been dragging him along, we don’t know how many days they have gone without sleep, how delirious they may have been, maybe without food or water also, maybe they saw the tree line as a place to rest, recuperate, and they would go back to their fallen friend…still in plain sight and they would do this after a little bit of rest time.
I have also obviously labeled this as Very, Very Not Safe for Work…it is bad, of course, but IMO, does not show Russian soldiers in a particularly bad light. Still, while showing the horrors of war, unlike some people, I believe this to be appropriate and necessary. ***********
Also, honest people can honestly disagree, and that being said, I do not see the release of the hostages as a clear win for Hamas. It is an objective to desirously be sought, it is a primary war aim and also a political victory in that Hostage Taking is not acceptable to anyone in the world, (I think, I hope), and so the release shows Hamas to be…war criminals at work.I do not believe, as you seem to optimistically believe, that intel and Special Forces have the capacity to do an “Entebbe,” type of rescue attempt (unless I have misread you)…eventually this may be necessary, but a guarantee of live Hostages that we received today is a clean win, IMO.Very Best Wishes, and Thank You for Everything, Traveller
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: Hyperloop, another one of Elon Musks’ scams. China might actually get there 1st.
sdhays
I think multiple Likud governments elevated Hamas to nation-state status long ago as part of a cynical attempt to divide Palestinians and prevent any further serious discussion of a two-state solution. They were left to run Gaza for years.
Israel was just deluding itself thinking otherwise.
Nukular Biskits
@Adam L Silverman:
Nevertheless, I am impressed.
Working in a technical field (defense-related), I can empathize.
But your dedication to task is impressive. And commendable.
Keep up the good work!
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: The whole idea was to short circuit high speed rail initiatives in California. Which it did.
Adam L Silverman
@Nukular Biskits: Thank you for the kind words.
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman: Yes, it would be good if it were faster. Lots of issues were exposed by Covid-19 and the February 2022 re-invasion. Lead times on some stuff we needed at work went from around 4 weeks to 52+ weeks… :-/
TheDefensePost.com:
(Emphasis added.)
Going on a war footing can only do so much.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Chetan Murthy
@Another Scott: 3k/mo of an 80-year-old munition that they used to make in far greater numbers? That’s not a war footing. That’s “we can’t be arsed.”
Another Scott
@Chetan Murthy:
Not wanting to argue about this stuff and derail the thread, but these things are made in specialized plants. It’s not like spinning up more server instances on AWS. There are lots of constraints on increasing production – as France (and the US) illustrates.
YouTube.com (9:41) video on some of the 155mm production issues.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Bill Arnold
@sdhays:
Yes. One of the Israel-supporter commenters at LGM today was mocking people for not accepting that Hamas is a state actor.
So the messaging is (at best) confused.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: I mean Indian think tankers have been pretty transparent about what they see out of the relationship: milk as much technology, investment & trade as possible from the U.S., use U.S. support to bolster its position vis-a-vis the PRC in South Asia & across the Himalayas, but not get tied down by any commitments to the U.S. should any conflict actually arise w/ the PRC. I.e., entirely transactional.
Ideally, I think Modi would prefer to leverage U.S. support to extract concessions from the PRC, & then renormalize the relationship so that Indian can extract benefits all around. It’s just that the PRC has been steadfast in refusing to give Modi the concessions he seeks, believing that any concession will incentivize India to come back for more.
A couple of examples of the perverse consequences of U.S. stance wrt India.
When Hollywood backed out of projects critical of the PRC to please the CPC regime so that their movies can be screened in the lucrative Chinese market, they came under well deserved criticism. When India is doing it, it silence from the Administration & Congress.
US thwarted plot to kill Sikh separatist on American soil
If it was Russia, the PRC, Iran or NK making the attempt, it would be wall to wall coverage for days.
w/ both Israel & India, the Administration & Congress appear to prefer to treat w/ kid gloves. I think Van Jackson calls this vulgar realism or vulgar balancing. Preemptive concessions for no payoff, worsening the dynamics that anre actually driving instability in the world.
Bill Arnold
@Another Scott:
The US has a large (millions, IIRC) stockpile of 155mm cluster munition shells. FWIW, many of them should be destroyed due to reduced sub-munition reliability rate; the Ukrainians might be happy to destroy them in the field for us. @Another Scott:
The US has a large (millions, IIRC) stockpile of 155mm cluster munition shells. FWIW, many of them should be destroyed due to reduced sub-munition reliability; the Ukrainians might be happy to destroy them in the field for us. Might save US taxpayer money.
Chetan Murthy
@Another Scott: https://www.jmc.army.mil/Docs/History/Ammunition%20Industrial%20Base%20v2%20-%202010%20update.pdf
Search for the section titled World War II.
ETA: That”s the US, but the idea that France can’t do what the US did in the runup to WWII …. is bollocks. They can’t be arsed.
Another Scott
@Bill Arnold: Yup, I remember you pointing that out earlier.
I’m sure the DoD and the rest of NATO are doing as much as they can, with whatever Ukraine can use at the moment, given all the various constraints.
Here’s hoping that the constraints on VVP’s war machine continue to get tighter going forward.
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Origuy
@Bill Arnold: But those have to be moved from the places they are stored, to Ukraine. That could be expensive. How stable are these things during transport?
Bill Arnold
@Another Scott:
LOL my edits in full view.
Yeah, increasingly angry at the large wing of the USA GOP that proudly fluffs Vova P.
Improved intelligence sharing (especially tactically-useful information) is something else that the USA can (probably) do.
Another Scott
@Chetan Murthy: Those plants and those forges and those machines don’t exist any more. You can’t just snap your fingers and reproduce SCAAP and the like.
(repost – I found it again) TheAtlantic.com (from 1953):
There are always constraints, even when we’re a combatant. And even if we decided to ramp production, as we have, it takes time and lots of effort. One of the biggest ones, as we’ve seen, is managing political support over months and years.
Biden, and the folks implementing his policies, are doing the best they can given the constraints, IMHO. Yes, it would be good if there weren’t as many constraints, and with any luck there will be fewer in coming years.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
Adam L Silverman
We’ll have to wait for the AFU tally tomorrow, but from what I’m seeing on social media, Russia has been throwing waves of shaheds at Kyiv all night.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: We, as in the US, are not on a war footing. And there’s no indication we’re going on one any time soon.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: It’s actually a combination of not actually listening to what the Indians are telling us in words and actions and refusing to believe that what they’re telling us is the truth.
hrprogressive
@Adam L Silverman:
It’s been almost 2 full years, and it’s pretty clear to me the majority of the GOP would actually welcome a Putin victory.
If we weren’t going to go on a war footing to stop Putin / help Ukraine win in 2022, I have a very difficult time seeing it happen, ever.
What passes for “western liberal democracy” seems content to either sleepwalk into, or actively transform into, Western Fascism, without any real fight against it.
Happy to be corrected if neither of those takes sound right.
Thanks again for your work.
Bill Arnold
@Origuy:
Don’t know. They are transported a lot though, (mostly?) without incident. If you poke around, you’ll find images of scary-looking palettes.
Alison Rose
@Adam L Silverman:
This is a time when I’d permit kink-shaming.
Alison Rose
@Traveller:
There is no other light in which to show them. There is nothing in the russians’ behavior that ought to ever earn them any iota of a benefit of the doubt.
Another Scott
@Bill Arnold: It looks like the fuses / detonators / whatever screws into the tip of the shell is called, is added just before loading into the gun for firing. So, as long as there isn’t a fire, the shells in that state should be pretty safe to handle.
Maybe OO can chime in if he’s reading.
Cheers,
Scott.
Villago Delenda Est
@Adam L Silverman: Modi is about as trustworthy as TFG.
Villago Delenda Est
@Another Scott: Omnes knows the mostest about this stuff, being a certified redleg/cannon cocker. I can tell you that an “artillery shell” is more than just the warhead, as you’ve outlined.
Adam L Silverman
I’m going offline before I say something that will hurt people’s feelings.
Everyone have a good night. Catch you all on the flip.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: Well, U.S. allies & partners (particularly the latter) have become very practiced at playing to the vanities, delusions & entrenched notions of the U.S. policy making elite, to secure the U.S.’ commitments, while continuing to act entirely to maximize self-interest. This is especially true outside of NATO.
Bill Arnold
@Villago Delenda Est:
Yeah,, and never forget the mutual praising by N. Modi and D.J.Trump, for mutual political gain.
Donald Trump & Narendra Modi Houston Rally Transcript: Trump and Modi Hold Texas Rally (Sep 23, 2019)
Trump heaps praise on India’s Modi in packed stadium (Feb. 24, 2020, Mo Abbas, Bill Neely and Alexander Smith)
Bill Arnold
@Villago Delenda Est:
Yeah, we need some informed comment here. I recall reading a description about the US methods for transporting artillery ammunition recently but haven’t found it. Maybe it was a link or comment here.
Not terribly relevant, though, the main issue for Ukraine is production rate, as outlined by Adam and others. (Both US and “allies”, and Russia and “allies”.)
Another Scott
@Bill Arnold:
This image seems to answer our questions. The thing that screws in the end is the shipping plug or the fuze.
This GD page has more.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Nukular Biskits
@Adam L Silverman:
Your efforts are appreciated.
NotoriousJRT
@Adam L Silverman: This is a sincere question. What does it mean to be / go “on a war footing?” I am a helluva lot more focused on the war in Ukraine than nearly everyone I know (and a heckuva lot less than you and knowledgeable commenters here). I think the sale of the concept that the world is at war and we need to be on a war footing is not easily made to the many not really paying attention. But perhaps I simply don’t understand what would be involved? Ukraine has dropped from mainstream media coverage. It gets scarce mention. It’s been eclipsed IMO, and that is an effing shame, again, IMO. To me this jeopardizes continuing aid, let alone something that may seem a frightening upward ratchet for those who do not want to consider such things.
ps: thanks for your impressive, continuing dedication to this effort.
bjacques
Thanks again, Adam.
Here in Cloggie-land, the party that Hair Guy needs to make his parliamentary majority is still refusing to join. Assuming the leader is serious and not just playing hard to get, Wilders is screwed. He got the middle finger vote because of high gas prices and the government, led by the party (VVD) now holding out, botching a childcare subsidy and then blaming the victims. I can’t imagine Wilders’s voters would especially welcome them, but, hey, politics. (Anyway, neither of those was caused by immigration.)
So the previous government’s policy stands, as it has the past five months, and aid to Ukraine is safe for now. Absent skilled horse trading by the non-screwhead parties (with better odds for Ukraine), we might even get another election, with the zombie government’s policies in place well into the spring. Here’s hoping anyway.
Traveller
@Alison Rose:
….Well, you opinion is very firm in these regards. I am sympathetic in these thoughts…but sometimes I do see Russians as simple soldiers…not often, certainly not after Bucha and what not….but sometimes, as here where they were being accused of being particularly heartless towards a fellow soldier…I did not believe this piling on was necessarily correct.
Sigh, now I probably have to infuriate you a little more…my predictions on this war have been incorrect…certainly in reference to how many Russian would have to die for them to change their direction…Russia suffered About 15,000 Soviet soldiers were killed, and about 35,000 were wounded in Afghanistan….they have suffered upwards of over 300,000 in Ukraine and nada, nada…every day I see scores or 100’s of dead Russians in real time….every damned day.
I sadly say that for many of these dead soldiers they think they are literally dying on Russia proper, Russian land. In fact, if you squint a little…this is a civil war and Ukraine is nothing more than South Carolina succeeding from the Union in 1860.
And, God help us, this makes Mr Putin, Abraham Lincoln maintaining the Union.
IMO, you can’t win a war without understanding your enemy…and that is Russian Society in the same sense that Hamas is Palestinian Society. I am terribly unhappy typing this…yet, with my current understanding, this seems true to me as to what I know at this moment.
Both Germany and especially Japan were transformed, their societies turning to being vibrantly alive and democratic, but only after a complete and brutal defeat.
Mine is an unhappy position to try to maintain…with some humanity. I enjoyed Russia, (absent time spent in a Russian Military Hospital…yikes), and by in larger Palestinians in the West Bank and Jerusalem though less so one twilight evening in the back streets of Haifa. Stuff happens.
Let me close with a story I just saw…one of the female released prisoners tonight was apparently charged with having a knife in the Old City, (incomplete reporting, I know), but me too! A metal detector found a knife on me at the Western Wall…shocked me, but I avoided arrest, not so lucky with the Shin Bet at Jericho, or the Allenby bridge or far up North at Mt. Hermon…when I accidentally wandered into the UN Zone.
I am kind of a War guy…(Oldster’s accusation of me re war porn was true even if it stung a little), but I will still insist that killing your enemy, though I happy to do this, is not enough…to win you need to understand, without justifying, your enemy and so must change him/her also. Best Wishes, Traveller
vigilhorn
17,000 assault rifles donated by Canada? If every American who owns an assault rifle donated at least one of theirs, it would solve more than one problem.
Miss Bianca
@Traveller: OK, you can fuck off with this “Ukraine is South Carolina” BS. Go troll somewhere else, you tankie POS.
Bill Arnold
@Miss Bianca:
Traveller was (appeared to be) trying (maybe not clearly enough) to channel attitudes of some Russian soldiers, those who believe the immersive and relentless intra-Russia war propaganda, believe that Ukraine is (an escaped) part of the Russian empire and that they are a holy part of empire restoration project.
Traveller
Well, maybe it was a quixotic Question….Why do Russian Soldiers keep marching into such misery? Is there any argument that I can present that will deflate whatever motdivates what I see as an Insane Russian position in this war…(of course it being insane is maybe what gives it a particular motive force).
As to the other war…Adam may be correct in that this is a positive for Hamas….I was particularly distressed by the demonstrations in London and, the Joy in Gaza with the release of the jailed Palestinian prisoners….and praise for Hamas.
I see a target rich environment with all those green head bands, but all these celebrations are very bad news.
These wars really may be Germany and Japan…the societies need to be crushed or suffer some psychological collapse….that I don’t have a clue how to bring about….except by the continuation of these wars…to some bitter bloody end.
An unhappy end to this analysis….but we optiistic humans must continue trying to find a way out fo these terrible boxes. Best Wishes, Traveller
justinb
Will someone please free me from FYWP?