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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

This really is a full service blog.

Consistently wrong since 2002

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

Today in our ongoing national embarrassment…

Everybody saw this coming.

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

Cancel the cowardly Times and Post and set up an equivalent monthly donation to ProPublica.

I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

You cannot love your country only when you win.

Rupert, come get your orange boy, you petrified old dinosaur turd.

Lick the third rail, it tastes like chocolate!

Hi god, it’s us. Thanks a heap, you’re having a great week and it’s only Thursday!

Take hopelessness and turn it into resilience.

He wakes up lying, and he lies all day.

Republicans want to make it harder to vote and easier for them to cheat.

When they say they are pro-life, they do not mean yours.

There is no right way to do the wrong thing.

if you can’t see it, then you are useless in the fight to stop it.

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

Many life forms that would benefit from greater intelligence, sadly, do not have it.

Of course you can have champagne before noon. That’s why orange juice was invented.

Fight for a just cause, love your fellow man, live a good life.

Compromise? There is no middle ground between a firefighter and an arsonist.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Reading and Eating

by Tom Levenson|  April 29, 20256:11 pm| 34 Comments

This post is in: Cooking, Food & Recipes, Open Threads

Welp…

So Very Small went on sale today.

I put a post last week that talked about the book (and its imminent arrival) in some detail, so I won’t repeat all that here. Instead, I’ll just say that the editor of my last four books thinks it’s my best work to date, and I believe–more with each passing day that RFK Jr. remains the top US health official–that it’s my most important.

What I do want to do here is make good on a promise I made in that earlier post: to provide a food/cooking interlude at some later date. (I’m much later than I’d suggested, but I’m hoping that the thought counts.)

So two recent cooking experiences/suggestions.

1: This (with a slight variation).

That’s a Yotam Ottolenghi recipe for spatchcocked chicken cooked with butter beans and shallots, recently published in The Guardian. My cousin, a former producer on the BBC 4 Food Programme (now there’s a gig!) made it for me a few weeks ago when I blew through London for a few days, and I really liked it.  I came home, tried it once; thought it was good but could be better, and just this weekend made it again, and nailed it.

Reading and Eating

My variations on Ottolenghi’s original:

First, I used a much smaller bird than he prescribes. I like 3.5 to 4 lb birds (~1.6 to 1.9 kg); my cousin had made her version with a chicken on the larger end of what Ottolenghi suggests and it was tasty, but the texture wasn’t right and I think it’s easier to control the doneness of the whole dish with the smaller options.

Then I cheated just a little downward on the amount of turmeric. It’s a very strong spice and I think going a little lighter made the dish a bit more graceful.

I used water as mentioned in the recipe the first time out but on the second I used a 50:50 combo of white wine and home made chicken stock and it was really good.

After the first by-the-book version, I tried slicing the lemon into thin rounds instead of two halves. That was better to my taste, though you give up squeezing the roasted lemon juice, which is fun.

Finally, I think one can play around with the variety of beans. I stuck with butter beans on the first iteration and really enjoyed them; they brown up well and play very nicely with everything else. Second time out, though, the local supermarket was out of them, so I substituted cannelloni beans (I’d been thinking about going this way) and they were great. They hold their shape and texture more than the others, and they tasted great.

2: I think I’ve already commended Yasmin Khan’s sumac-pomegranate chicken thighs to the Jackaltariat. If not, I should have. It’s grand, and I don’t do anything to the recipe. Just rock and roll and eat like a monarch.

What’s new (for me) is that last Friday I found myself with a small piece of boneless leg of lamb–a pound and a quarter, perhaps. I pounded that sucker into a more or less consistent depth, cut cross hatchings top and bottom, and then rubbed the marinade from that chicken recipe all over and into the meat. I let it sit for a little, then roasted it in a 375 degree oven to medium rare (a little closer to medium than I’d like, perhaps)–maybe 20 minutes, maybe a little less. It would have been good if I’d had time to marinate it for a bit, but it was damn fine as it was and was an unbelievably quick turnaround for supper for two.

Reading and Eating 1 Reading and Eating 2

This thread is open–but if you’ve got tales of fun variations on favorite recipes, well…as they say in kindergarten, bring enough for everyone.

 

 

 

Reading and EatingPost + Comments (34)

Tuesday Morning Odds & Ends (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker|  April 29, 20258:44 am| 223 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity, Trumpery

We finally got some much-needed rain yesterday evening. The added moisture brought tasty grubs, bugs and what-not to the surface for the dining pleasure of a pair of Sandhill Cranes who visit daily.

A pair of tall, long-legged, long-necked gray birds with red stripes on the top of their heads standing on a riverbank.

I feel so lucky to share a riverbank with these stately descendants of dinosaurs and try to present as non-threatening when sneaking around for a shot. But I get the feeling they’re thinking, “Fuck off, you hideous hairless ape!”

***

I see that congratulations are in order for our good neighbors to the north: PM Mark Carney retained his post, and the Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, lost his seat. (NYT) It’s unclear yet whether Carney’s Liberals won a majority in Parliament, but great job, everybody!

And a special thanks to the Canadian readers who weighed in on yesterday’s post about the election. I learned a lot from your comments.

***

Speaking of polities that retain a shred of national dignity, Bluesky commenter Adam Gurri collected a list of grievances from the U.S. Declaration of Independence that are eerily applicable to our current situation:

Tuesday Morning Odds & Ends (Open Thread)

Next year marks the 250th anniversary of the Declaration. Our forebears went on to overthrow their tyrannical king, and I can’t think of a better way to celebrate than to toss the current would-be king out on his ass. But the only way to do that prior to an election is impeachment and removal.

As outrage grows about Trump’s lawlessness and overreach on multiple fronts, I hear more rumblings about the “I” word in left spaces, including Bluesky. Mistermix posted about the pros and cons of impeachment at Reverse Pyromania here.

***

Meanwhile, the orange shitgoblin is staging a rally in Michigan today to celebrate the catastrophic first 100 days of his second term, which include the illegal usurpation of hundreds of billions in funding for critical programs. AP has the rally details:

He’s expected to speak at a rally at Macomb Community College, north of Detroit, allowing him to revel in leading a sprint to upend government and social, political and foreign policy norms.

Michigan was one of the battleground states Trump flipped from the Democratic column. But it’s also been deeply affected by his tariffs, including on new imported cars and auto parts.

If I remember my ancient U.S. political history correctly, Macomb County was the region where the “Reagan Democrats” emerged in 1980. The post-election analysis gave birth to a media narrative that still grips reporters who were not yet born then.

Wouldn’t it be something if Michiganders turned out en masse to tell the current demented old coot to get the fuck out? They could borrow the more elegant words of the Declaration and object to “a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States.”

Open thread.

Tuesday Morning Odds & Ends (Open Thread)Post + Comments (223)

Late Night Open Thread: Yay Canada?

by TaMara|  April 29, 202512:56 am| 158 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics

Started streaming 2 hours ago #Carney #Liberals #election

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to speak after his ruling Liberals retained power in Monday’s election. It is too soon to say whether they will form a majority government, CTV News and CBC predicted.

 

I don’t think at the time I’m posting he’s spoken yet.

From NPR:

Mark Carney has been elected as prime minister of Canada, according to the projections of the national broadcaster CBC/Radio Canada, in one of the country’s most consequential elections in decades. But it’s still not clear if his Liberal party will win the 172 seats needed for an outright majority in parliament. The full results will not be available until late Monday evening, or early Tuesday morning.

The vote was widely seen as a decision about which candidate could best handle President Trump, who helped spark a wave of nationalism across Canada by threatening to annex Canada and placing stiff tariffs on the country.

I’m only up because I watched the Avalanche get their butts kicked tonight. Ugh.

Open thread

Late Night Open Thread: Yay Canada?Post + Comments (158)

War for Ukraine Day 1,159: From Unconditionally Conditional Ceasefire to Fake Ceasefire

by Adam L Silverman|  April 28, 202510:54 pm| 13 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Yesterday, as we covered, Lavrov outlined a unconditionally conditional ceasefire:

Lavrov has outlined Russia’s conditions for a resolution to the war in Ukraine, presenting terms that are basically good old capitulation demands.

Key elements of Lavrov’s conditions include:

– Ukraine’s permanent neutrality, precluding NATO membership, alongside its “demilitarization” 👇

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 28, 2025 at 9:33 AM

and “denazification” (no one knows what that means)
– International recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions
– The lifting of all sanctions imposed on Russia and the return of its frozen assets
– Russia’s rejection of any U.S. or Ukrainian👇

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 28, 2025 at 9:33 AM

control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
– The repeal of Ukrainian laws restricting the use of the Russian language, culture, and the Russian Orthodox Church.

All in all, Witkoff’s diplomacy achieved nothing at all. Their list has been the same for years now.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 28, 2025 at 9:33 AM

Denazification means removing anyone in Ukraine who opposes Russia. This comes out of the largely ahistorical and heavily mythologized Soviet and now Russian history of WW II in Europe. The Soviets redefined NAZIism as anyone opposed to the Soviet Union, especially Soviet Russia, not just the actual NAZIs and their genocidal racist fascist ideology. All of this is now covered under the term pobiedobesie, which means victory frenzy or victory mania or victory obsession, which all of modern Russian WW II history is rooted in, taught in both professional/scholarly and popular history, in popular Russian culture, and indoctrinated into Russian children starting at a very young age. More on this as we get closer to “Victory Day.”

Today Putin announced a fake ceasefire for Russia’s celebration of Victory in Europe Day, which Russia celebrates on 9 MAY while everyone else celebrates on 8 May.

Oh look, Putin announces fake ceasefire for May 8–10, with no intention of holding it. Just another move to buy time and sabotage peace effort.

— Maria Avdeeva (@mariainkharkiv.bsky.social) April 28, 2025 at 8:36 AM

I will believe this when I see it. Especially as everything Putin and the Russians are doing is maskirovka:

Russia also wants to stop Ukrainian attacks on Victory Day, because its air defenses are inadequate to protect itself from Ukrainian drones. Ukraine should unilaterally declare a ceasefire for May 1-8 (which includes its Victory Day) and if Russia breaks it, refuse to abide by the Russian ceasefire.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) April 28, 2025 at 1:09 PM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

We Value Human Lives, Not Parades – Address by the President

28 April 2025 – 22:13

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Briefly about today. In the Cherkasy region, work is currently underway to restore gas supply. Following a Shahed drone strike, there has been damage to infrastructure – critical infrastructure – and it is ordinary civilian infrastructure. Once again, Russia has struck a target that is not about war, but about people. Moreover, this attack came against the backdrop of global demands for Russia to end this war and establish a ceasefire. That is, each new day brings another clear proof that pressure must be exerted on Russia – and it must be strong enough – to force them in Moscow to end this war, a war that only Russia needs. We in Ukraine never wanted a single second of this war – and we have always said that we are ready to work as swiftly as possible with all partners who can help establish peace and guarantee security. Back on March 11, we responded positively to the American proposal for a full ceasefire. We made our own proposal to Russia – bilaterally – to halt strikes at least on civilian targets, at the very least. We also proposed making the Easter ceasefire full and extending it for thirty days. Russia has consistently rejected everything and continues to manipulate the world, trying to deceive the United States. Now, yet again, another attempt at manipulation: for some reason, everyone is supposed to wait until May 8 before ceasing fire – just to provide Putin with silence for his parade. We value human lives, not parades. That’s why we believe – and the world believes – that there is no reason to wait until May 8. The ceasefire should not be just for a few days, only to return to killing afterward. It must be immediate, full, and unconditional – for at least 30 days to ensure it is secure and guaranteed. This is the foundation that could lead to real diplomacy. We reaffirm this proposal. The American proposal also remains on the table. Russia knows exactly what it needs to do and how to respond: to genuinely cease fire. And we believe that global pressure – pressure from the United States of America – can push Russia toward precisely the kind of response that is needed.

Today, I held a meeting with our diplomats – we are preparing meetings and negotiations with our partners, and Ukraine will take part in the summits that are essential for our country. The priority is clear – air defense, security for our people, support for Ukraine, and support for diplomacy – so that Russia loses the ability to prolong the war.

Today, our government officials – Ukraine’s representatives in the negotiations with the United States on the economic partnership agreement – also delivered their reports. The document has become significantly stronger – equitable – and can be beneficial for both of our nations, for Ukraine and for America. I would like to thank our teams first of all.

I spoke several times today with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi – about the frontline situation and our operations. I want to thank all our warriors for their resilience. And today, I especially want to highlight Pokrovsk – we are holding our positions – as well as the Kursk and Belgorod directions, where we continue to operate on enemy territory. I am grateful to each of our units for the result in destroying the occupier. Strength at the front gives strength to diplomacy.

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

#GeorgiaProtests
Day 152

📷 Giorgi Burjanadze

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 28, 2025 at 2:43 PM

Our little rituals ✊🏻 Day 152!

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) April 28, 2025 at 2:30 PM

“If I am not in prison, I will do everything for European integration and for the freedom of speech and expression. If that is considered a crime, then perhaps I should indeed be punished” – Amaglobeli stated at court.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 28, 2025 at 11:13 AM

GYLA has filed a complaint with the European Court of Human Rights on behalf of Mzia Amaglobeli, founder of Batumelebi&Netgazeti.
The case challenges Amaghlobeli’s unlawful detention and other rights violations, citing breaches of six fundamental rights under the European Convention on Human Rights

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) April 28, 2025 at 4:11 AM

#Mzia entering the court ✊

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— Lena Schilling (@lenaats.bsky.social) April 28, 2025 at 5:18 AM

Friend and Colleague of #Mzia, Tamar of @netgazeti.org, summarising what happened today in court.

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— Lena Schilling (@lenaats.bsky.social) April 28, 2025 at 11:14 AM

On Apr.28, Judge Nino Sakhelashvili rejected the defense’s request to replace Mzia Amaglobeli’s pre-trial detention – imposed on Jan.14 – with a less severe measure such as house arrest or an electronic bracelet.
Citing an increased risk of reoffending, the judge ordered that Mzia remain in custody

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) April 28, 2025 at 3:39 PM

take action for #mzia now:

actionnetwork.org/forms/freedo…

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— Lena Schilling (@lenaats.bsky.social) April 28, 2025 at 6:07 AM

A father and a son have been shot dead in Gori.

A frequent occurrence in a rapidly Russifying Georgia.

Meanwhile, protesters discuss new methods & it seems like a new breath is near once again – after a period of some collective creeping in of depression, which is natural too.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) April 28, 2025 at 5:26 AM

Spain, Portugal, and France:

Never seen anything like the power outage hitting Spain/Portugal right now. Regions of Spain, Portugal, France hit. Mayor of Madrid tells residents to stay home if they can. Traffic lights out. ATMs, too. Airports dark. “The interruption was due to a problem in the European electricity grid”

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— Kim Zetter (@kimzetter.bsky.social) April 28, 2025 at 9:53 AM

From The NY Times:

A major power outage hit Spain and Portugal on Monday afternoon, abruptly shutting down daily activities, halting trains and subways, cutting off traffic lights, closing stores and canceling or delaying some flights.

Hours after the power shut off around 12:30 p.m. Central European time, stranding tens of millions of people across the Iberian Peninsula, officials remained at a loss as to the cause, though several denied any foul play.

“At this point, there are no indications of any cyberattack,” António Costa, the president of the European Council, wrote on X after communicating with the leaders of Spain and Portugal, who both assembled emergency meetings. “Grid operators in both countries are working on finding the cause and on restoring the electricity supply.”

By Monday evening, with the help of electricity funneled from Morocco and France, parts of northern and southern Spain had flickered back to life and Spain’s national power company, Red Eléctrica, said power was being progressively restored across the country. Later Monday night, the president, Pedro Sánchez, said, “Practically 50 percent of the electricity supply has been restored.”

In Portugal, the electricity and gas supplier, REN, announced power had been reconnected to two important substations near Lisbon and that residents in Greater Porto should be back online shortly.

The outage briefly affected France. RTE, the French electrical grid operator, said in a statement that some households in the Basque region had lost electricity but that “all power has since been restored.”

Still, others remained in the dark.

The reaction across the region ranged from frantic stockpiling to confused bewilderment to calmly hunkering down and making do with old-fashioned electricity-free ways of living.

More at the link.

Right now I’ve seen no reporting as to the cause, so we wait and watch.

Ukraine has offered assistance to European countries that experienced massive power outages.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 28, 2025 at 11:05 AM

The US:

European & Ukrainian officials fear Donald Trump is on the brink of walking away from peace negotiations with Kyiv and Moscow, using minor progress in talks as an “excuse to walk away”, people briefed on the discussions told me, @christopherjm.ft.com & @maxseddon.bsky.social

on.ft.com/4jWc1TC

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— Henry Foy (@henryjfoy.ft.com) April 28, 2025 at 1:33 PM

From The Financial Times:

European and Ukrainian officials fear Donald Trump is on the brink of walking away from peace negotiations with Kyiv and Moscow, potentially using minor progress in talks as an “excuse” to say his job is done, according to people briefed on the discussions.

The US president was elected on a promise to end the war in “24 hours”, but his overtures to Russia’s Vladimir Putin and attempts to strong-arm the Ukrainian leadership have failed to win backing for his initial proposal of a 30-day ceasefire, let alone a lasting truce.

Following talks with the US side in recent days, European and Ukrainian officials are convinced Trump is ready to seize any kind of breakthrough this week, which marks his first 100 days in office — even if it falls short of a long-term solution, four officials told the Financial Times.

One European official said Trump was “setting up a situation where he gives himself excuses to walk away and leave it to Ukraine and us [Europe] to fix”.

Putin’s unwillingness to agree to key US and Ukrainian demands such as maintaining a postwar Ukrainian military force, and the complexity of the conflict has made Trump re-evaluate his commitment to a peace deal, they added.

Marco Rubio, US secretary of state, on Sunday called this a “critical” week for talks and signalled that Washington is unwilling to be dragged into an extended negotiation.

The Russian president on Monday offered a three-day ceasefire over the holiday of May 8-10 when Russia celebrates the Soviet victory in the second world war — but he has failed to keep his previous pledges to pause hostilities over Easter and on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

On Monday, Russia further hardened its conditions with foreign minister Sergei Lavrov saying that Moscow considered “international recognition” of its annexation of five Ukrainian regions to be an “imperative” for any deal.

All these developments led some European capitals to rethink their efforts to “keep [Trump] engaged”, the first official said, and instead to “do the right thing and rather not what Trump wants”.

Kyiv has quietly begun preparing to go it alone in anticipation of a US pullout, by increasing domestic arms production and intensifying talks with European allies about future assistance.

It was unclear if the US would stop intelligence and military support to Ukraine — as Trump did temporarily in March — in the event of the White House stepping back from the diplomatic efforts, the officials said.

“There are serious apprehensions in Ukraine that Trump might walk away from ceasefire negotiations,” Oleksandr Merezhko, an MP in Zelenskyy’s ruling party and head of the parliament’s foreign affairs committee, told the FT.

“The worst thing that can happen in the US-Ukraine relations is when Trump will lose any interest in Ukraine,” he said, which he added “might be perceived by Putin as a tacit permission from the US to escalate the war”.

More at the link.

Frankly, if the EU, its member states, the non-US NATO members, and non-European allies and partners will fill the intelligence gap that might result, as well as the logistics gap, I’m not sure having Trump and his team walking away would be worse than accepting a bad agreement. It’s one thing to negotiate an accept the best alternative agreement, but that’s not what Putin and Russia are pushing for. And the US team seems to be negotiating with Russia for a US-Russia reset where resolving Russia’s genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine is just a complication.

Especially as this is what Putin and Russia have in mind once they’ve finished with Ukraine:

Russia is preparing for a military conflict with NATO after the war in Ukraine ends, according to The Wall Street Journal.

www.wsj.com/world/russia…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 28, 2025 at 12:00 PM

From The Wall Street Journal:

HELSINKI—With President Trump and many other world leaders preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, some Europeans are growing alarmed about what the Russian army has been doing much more quietly along other stretches of its border with Europe.

Some 100 miles east of its border with Finland, in the Russian city of Petrozavodsk, military engineers are expanding army bases where the Kremlin plans to create a new army headquarters to oversee tens of thousands of troops over the next several years.

Those soldiers, many now serving on the front lines in Ukraine, are intended to be the backbone of a Russian military preparing to face off with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, according to Western military and intelligence officials. The Kremlin is expanding military recruitment, bolstering weapons production and upgrading railroad lines in border areas.

Finland, which was forced to surrender territory to the Soviet Union in 1940, has spent decades trying to avoid confrontation with Moscow. Now, having joined NATO after the Ukraine invasion, it is fortifying its border with electronic defenses and barbed wire fencing.

Trump, who has been pressuring Ukraine to accept a cease-fire deal while trying to rebuild U.S. ties with the Kremlin, has said worries that Russia has any ambitions beyond Ukraine are overblown. Asked in February about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s warning that Russia could wage war on NATO if the U.S. reduces support for the alliance, Trump said: “I don’t agree with that, not even a little bit.”Back to Ukraine.

Military experts inside Russia, though, characterize the activity along the Finnish border as part of the Kremlin’s preparation for potential conflict with NATO.

“When the troops are back [from Ukraine], they will be looking over the border at a country they consider an adversary,” said Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for the Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow-based defense think tank. “The logic of the last decade shows we’re expecting some conflict with NATO.”

Russian officials have sent mixed signals. At a defense ministry meeting late last year, Russia’s Defense Minister Andrey Belousov said Russia’s military must be ready for a conflict with NATO. At the same gathering, President Vladimir Putin said the West was alarming its own population by suggesting that Russia was ready to attack, and that current tensions were NATO’s doing.

As Russia prepares to increase its military presence along NATO’s eastern flank, Putin has ordered the military to expand its ranks to as many as 1.5 million troops, up from around one million before the Ukraine invasion.

Russia has increased military spending to more than 6% of GDP this year, from 3.6% before the war. By comparison, the U.S. spent 3.4% of its GDP on its military last year, and EU countries, on average, spent 2.1%.

For centuries, Russia’s military made it one of Europe’s great powers. It routed both Napoleon and Hitler after each dared invade Russian territory. The Soviet Union’s entry into World War II changed the direction of the conflict and set the stage for the Cold War era that followed.

Putin has drawn on that military legacy to justify the war in Ukraine and Russia’s efforts to claw back influence in Europe, where former allies such as Ukraine have drifted toward the West. Russia appears to be betting that a military expansion along NATO borders will force the West to re-engage with a stronger Moscow.

“Russia and Europe will need to restart dialogue with a clear understanding of one another’s capabilities, an understanding of the fact that we’re enemies,” said Vasily Kashin, director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Moscow-based Higher School of Economics.

To concentrate its forces to the West, last year the Kremlin changed the way it organizes its forces inside the country, creating new districts tied to the defense of its biggest cities, Moscow and St. Petersburg.

In the Moscow military district, Russia has been integrating the road and rail routes used by its military with those in neighboring Belarus, Moscow’s closest ally and a staging ground for the initial invasion of Ukraine.

Most of the manpower expansion will take place in the Leningrad district, which faces Estonia, Latvia and Finland. Smaller brigades will nearly triple in size to become divisions of 10,000 around troops, according to Western military and intelligence officials.

“No matter how they may try to innovate on a tactical or operational level, for the Russians, size matters,” said Maj. Gen. Sami Nurmi, Finland’s deputy chief of staff responsible for strategy. “It always comes down to numbers.”

Russia is planning to build new barracks and training grounds and to upgrade arsenals and railroad lines to accommodate the swelling troop numbers in and around Petrozavodsk.

In December, Russian state television showed some 100 Russian soldiers marching through the city’s center to celebrate the restoration of a Soviet-era railroad brigade tasked with laying the new rails. “You are the first ones, the first unit being revived,” Andrei Artyomov, commissar for the broader Karelian region, told the assembled troops.

The new infrastructure being built includes storage units and troops housing, said Emil Kastehelmi of the Finland-based Black Bird Group, which analyzes satellite images of Russian military sites. New rail is being laid along the borders with Finland and Norway, and south of St. Petersburg to the Estonian border. Existing lines that cross the region are being expanded.

Finland is watching to see where those new lines might go.

More at the link.

Just to close the loop on this, all of what Russia is doing is setting the conditions to at least threaten, if not actually invade different European states despite them being NATO members. Imagine how much more effective this will be if Russia also winds up controlling Crimea, and as a result, the Black sea, as well as Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk Oblasts. And, of course, he also wants to try to push into and take Odesa Oblast as that creates a land corridor all the way to the breakaway statelet of Transnistria. At the start of Russia’s genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine, Putin, his key staffers, his surrogates, and Russian propagandists were referring to this corridor as Novorossiya or New Russia.

The Russian newspapers say the Kremlin should keep stringing Trump along for as long as it can, aiming to wring out more concessions that will leave Ukraine a defenseless, semi-vassal state.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) April 28, 2025 at 3:00 AM

Here’s the full video:

That “major reconstruction of the Ukrainian political system” is part of what the Russians mean by denazification.

Back to Ukraine:

What do Ukrainians think about trading Crimea for Trump’s “ceasefire”.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 28, 2025 at 11:00 AM

Kharkiv:

Last day, russian forces shelled an agricultural enterprise in the Kharkiv district. Dozens of cattle were killed, and several dozen more animals were injured.

Why? Just why???

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 28, 2025 at 5:47 AM

The Kursk cross border offensive:

Russia has officially released footage showing North Korean soldiers fighting on Russia’s side.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) April 28, 2025 at 5:07 AM

Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:

Clearing of a village in the Luhansk region by fighters of the 2nd Company, 1st Assault Battalion, 3rd Separate Assault Brigade.
t.me/c/1377735387…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 28, 2025 at 1:44 PM

Rostov Oblast, Russia:

Did you miss burning russian oil depots as much as I did?

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 28, 2025 at 2:50 PM

Bryansk Oblast, Russia:

Russian Bryansk had a fun night 👀🔥

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 28, 2025 at 4:57 AM

From The Kyiv Independent:

Editor’s note: The story is being updated.

An overnight drone strike targeted a key Russian electronics plant in the city of Bryansk, Russian Telegram channels and a Ukrainian official claimed on April 28.

Bryansk Oblast Governor Alexander Bogomaz claimed that Ukrainian forces launched a “massive attack” against the region, with Russian air defenses allegedly intercepting and destroying 102 drones.

“Unidentified” drones targeted the Kremniy-El plant, a major facility specializing in microelectronics for Russia’s military-industrial complex, said Andrii Kovalenko, an official at Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council.

Russian Telegram channels supported this assertion, which was not confirmed by local authorities.

The plant produces components for missile systems such as the Topol-M, Bulava, and Iskander, as well as for radars, electronic warfare systems, drones, and the onboard electronics of military aircraft, according to Russian open sources.

Images and videos posted on Telegram showed fires burning in parts of the city overnight, with residents reporting flashes in the sky.

Local media reported at least 10 to 15 explosions in Bryansk, with damage to civilian infrastructure, vehicles, and residential buildings. Bogomaz claimed that one civilian was killed and another injured in the attacks.

The Ukrainian forces have not yet commented on the attack. The Kyiv Independent could not verify the claims.

Bryansk lies around 100 kilometers (60 miles) north of the Russia-Ukraine border. Ukrainian forces have repeatedly targeted Russian military and industrial facilities in the rear to undermine Moscow’s ability to wage its all-out war.

Krasnodar Oblast, Russia:

Russian Telegram channels report a large fire in the area of Novorossiysk, Krasnodar region of Russia.

Local news reported a “diesel fuel tank fire in industrial area”. Judging by the size of the fire, the tank was not small.

No comments from local authorities yet.

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— Anton Gerashchenko (@antongerashchenko.bsky.social) April 28, 2025 at 3:55 PM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

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Приніс тут вам понеділковий лизь! Заряджений натхненням і гарним настроєм 🤭👅 #песпатрон

♬ sonido original – Lore.

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

Brought to you here Monday’s lick! Charged with inspiration and good mood 🤭👅 #песпатрон

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,159: From Unconditionally Conditional Ceasefire to Fake CeasefirePost + Comments (13)

Squishable Open Thread

by WaterGirl|  April 28, 20258:26 pm| 75 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Holy cow, 5 hours since the last post.

Just caught up on that post, wondering what else I missed today since I am still playing musical chairs at home.

Open thread!

Squishable Open ThreadPost + Comments (75)

Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes

by WaterGirl|  April 28, 20253:25 pm| 161 Comments

This post is in: Democratic Politics, Open Threads, Politics

Not totally unexpected, but very bad news for Gerry Connolly.  His cancer appears to be winning the battle.

Breaking: Rep. Gerry Connolly announces that he is not running for re-election and will step down as ranking member of the Oversight Committee.

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— Brian Tyler Cohen (@briantylercohen.bsky.social) April 28, 2025 at 10:02 AM

Surely ACO would be rewarded with a leadership position.  Right?  She’s doing great things.

AOC: Some of the Republicans whose districts we visited just warned their leadership that they’re not sure they can vote for Medicaid cuts now.

We’ve got them on their back foot. But our job is not done.

We will rally every corner of the U.S.

We will not stop until they actually vote no.

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— Acyn (@acyn.bsky.social) April 16, 2025 at 4:35 PM

But AOC is not on that committee anymore.

Connolly to step down as top Dem on Oversight, paving the way for generational change  (Politico)

His departure could set up a big fight among younger Democrats to succeed him.

Rep. Gerry Connolly, the top Democrat on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, will step down from his leadership post on the panel and not run for reelection.

The Virginia Democrat, whose constituency includes many federal workers, cited the return of his esophageal cancer — first diagnosed in late 2024 — as the reason for his planned departure.

“With no rancor and a full heart, I move into this final chapter full of pride in what we’ve accomplished together over 30 years,” Connolly said in a statement Monday, saying he would pull back from his ranking member position “soon.”

Connolly had beaten out Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the top leadership position on the panel in a contest last fall that in many ways had tested the House Democratic Caucus’ appetite for generational change. Several aging committee leaders had stepped aside in the face of challenges from Democrats who promised to bring a more vigorous opposition to the Trump administration to the table, though Connolly and his allies had stressed that the veteran lawmaker had invaluable investigative experience.

Ocasio-Cortez is no longer a member of the Oversight Committee and joined Energy and Commerce this year, so she could have a difficult time mounting a comeback bid — though it’s not clear she intends to do so. Others who might step up to the plate include Reps. Ro Khanna of California and Jasmine Crockett of Texas.

When reached for comment, Crockett and Khanna didn’t close the door on seeking a bid to succeed Connolly.

“I’m the vice ranker so when I took the role on, I was and still am willing to step in, in service to the caucus and the country, but conversations need to be had before any formal announcement can be made,” Crockett said in a text message. The vice ranking member position was created in 2016 to give younger Democrats leadership responsibilities and does not reflect seniority on any given committee.

“I admire Representative Connolly for his years of service and commitment to accountability and transparency. He has stepped back, not stepped aside. I’m praying for him and his family. I’m focused on that right now and our committee’s work,” said Khanna in a statement.

According to a congressional aide granted anonymity to share private conversations, Connolly has been in communication with Rep. Stephen Lynch of Massachusetts — the second in line in seniority among Democrats behind D.C. Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton — about covering for him on the dias until a permanent replacement is elected. He has asked Lynch to begin that stint at the Wednesday markup of the panel’s portion of the GOP’s massive tax, border and energy bill.

When late-Oversight chair Elijah Cummings, a Democrat, was unable to act as chair due to health issues, he tapped then-Rep. Carolyn Maloney to act in his capacity. She ultimately became the committee chair.

Ch-Ch-Ch-ChangesPost + Comments (161)

Go Canada! (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker|  April 28, 20251:23 pm| 127 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Politics

Canada is voting today. The demented authoritarian gasbag that 49.81% of U.S. voters installed as our president has “thoughts” about that, as expressed on his cheap knock-off Twitter platform this morning:

Idiotic Trump rant about Canada becoming the 51st state of the USA.

Wish I could have been a fly on the wall when Conservative candidate Pierre Poilievre’s staff showed him that. I confess I don’t follow Canadian politics closely, but my understanding is that the Liberals were in serious trouble due to former PM Trudeau’s unpopularity.

But thanks to the orange shitgoblin’s hostile actions and rhetoric and current PM Mark Carney’s strong response, the Liberals are expected to win handily. Is that about right? Are there are issues as salient as the tariffs and Trump’s threats to Canadian sovereignty?

Always hesitant to make assumptions about politics in other countries. I’m more comfortable babbling incoherently about U.S. politics, but it’s an important election.

My mom used to say, “You can be a good example or a horrible warning.” The U.S. wasn’t a good example last fall, but maybe we can serve as a cautionary tale.

Open thread.

PS: I generally alter the avatar on screenshots of Trump’s idiotic social media rants so you don’t have to look at his stupid face. You’re welcome!

Go Canada! (Open Thread)Post + Comments (127)

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