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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

They spent the last eight months firing professionals and replacing them with ideologues.

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

Republicans: “Abortion is murder but you can take a bus to get one.” Easy peasy.

Museums are not America’s attic for its racist shit.

Republicans: The threats are dire, but my tickets are non-refundable!

Oh FFS you might as well trust a 6-year-old with a flamethrower.

There are times when telling just part of the truth is effectively a lie.

Lick the third rail, it tastes like chocolate!

Thanks to your bullshit, we are now under siege.

“When somebody takes the time to draw up a playbook, they’re gonna use it.”

It’s all just conspiracy shit beamed down from the mothership.

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

Red lights blinking on democracy’s dashboard

There are some who say that there are too many strawmen arguments on this blog.

There are consequences to being an arrogant, sullen prick.

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

Sometimes the world just tells you your cat is here.

I don’t recall signing up for living in a dystopian sci-fi novel.

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

Republicans: slavery is when you own me. freedom is when I own you.

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

The lights are all blinking red.

No Kings: Americans standing in the way of bad history saying “Oh, Fuck No!”

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

The Dangerous Toddler Needs to be Reined In

by WaterGirl|  September 30, 20252:30 pm| 175 Comments

This post is in: Disoriented Mussolini, Open Threads, Politics

Apparently spell check doesn’t know when to use reigned in vs. reined in. It keeps telling me I have misspelled that word, which I don’t believe I have, unless everything I know is wrong.

Breaking: President declares war on his own country.

Things are getting dangerous out here. Day by day, Gov. Pritzker sounds the alarm a little more loudly and a little more clearly.

Maybe for the cheap seats, I guess, who don’t understand how dangerous these times are for democracy?

To Donald Trump:

Stop using military troops and ICE to invade and disrupt American cities.

Stop calling your political opponents “enemies” of the US.

Stop attacking the 1st Amendment.

Our troops and our nation deserve better than you acting as a petty tyrant.

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— Governor JB Pritzker (@govpritzker.illinois.gov) September 30, 2025 at 10:01 AM


.

People of Illinois, we need your help.

Get your cell phones out – record what you see. Put it on social media. Peacefully ask for badge numbers and identification. Speak up for your neighbors.

We need to let the world know this is happening – and that we won’t stand for it.

— Governor JB Pritzker (@govpritzker.illinois.gov) September 29, 2025 at 9:47 PM


.

As for reports from the White House LIES from the White House that the Dems put something in writing that Jeffries said is outright illegal, may I suggest something clarifying in writing, at the next meeting, if there ever is another one?

Fuck you.  Strong letter to follow.

(Yeah, there’s a reason I would never make it in politics. Probably a hundred of them)

*****

Rick Wilson has a good, short take.

It really was that entirely insane. Trump is not well mentally or physically, and the speech posed a moral challenge to America’s military leadership.

Would you turn the key for a man with these obvious mental infirmities?

The Bulwark coined the phrase:

Fat, disoriented Elvis

Which I have added as a category named simply “Disoriented Elvis”.

Personally, I am particularly interested in hearing thoughts related to the speech posing a moral challenge to America’s military leadership.

Open thread.

Updated to say that I have temporarily changed the tag to Disoriented Orange Satan until we can come up with the correct words to follow “Disoriented”.

The Dangerous Toddler Needs to be Reined InPost + Comments (175)

Truth or Consequences (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker|  September 30, 202510:04 am| 226 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Domestic Politics, Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity

Same channel, minutes apart:

Mike Johnson on CNBC claims that Democrats "put it in writing" during their meeting yesterday that they want health insurance for undocumented migrants as a demand for averting a shutdown

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) September 30, 2025 at 8:13 AM

Johnson claims there’s written evidence to support his assertion.

CNBC: Is it true that you want to restore American taxpayer benefits to illegal immigrants.

JEFFRIES: This is also an outright lie. Federal law prohibits the use of taxpayer dollars to provide medical coverage to undocumented individuals. That's the law.

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) September 30, 2025 at 9:30 AM

Jeffries says Johnson’s claim is an “outright lie.”

If only there were some group of professionals whose job it is to look at the evidence and tell folks who’s lying and who’s telling the truth.

Open thread.

Truth or Consequences (Open Thread)Post + Comments (226)

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: Looming

by Anne Laurie|  September 30, 20256:25 am| 253 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republican Venality

More than 100,000 federal workers are going to formally resign tomorrow, the largest such mass event in US history.
This is part of a Trump program to dramatically gut the federal workforce.
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025…

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— More Perfect Union (@moreperfectunion.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 11:38 AM

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Schumer after his meeting with Trump: "We have very large differences on healthcare and on their ability to undo whatever budget we agree to through rescissions and through impoundment."

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) September 29, 2025 at 4:39 PM

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Republicans are on vacation, democrats are here working seems like an important message

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— @NewsJennifer (Jennifer Schulze) (@newsjennifer.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 9:44 PM

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If there’s one thing that is fairly well creased into American politics, it’s that the Democrats are the people who want the government open and working.

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— Clean Observer (@hammbear2024.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 10:14 PM


 
Recap, per the Washington Post [gift link]: “Government shutdown set to begin overnight as Congress hits impasse”

show full post on front page

www.cnn.com/2025/09/29/p… I saw this earlier and found it remarkable that this is the *first* time the president will meet with Schumer since inauguration, and he has never *ever* met with Jeffries

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— geoff (@kookaburrasakura.co.nz) September 29, 2025 at 12:12 PM

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bro we are so cooked

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— April Glick Pulito (@aprilglick.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 4:54 PM

This is arguably the entire reason why the shutdown could happen and Trump is unaware of this. This speaks either to diminished mental capacity or utter isolation from reality. Seems like important news. Might even want to stick this above the fold!

we don’t have to pick one, plenty of evidence that it’s both

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— GOLIKEHELLMACHINE (@golikehellmachine.com) September 29, 2025 at 5:24 PM

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…. Does he think this is a winning argument for him?

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— Sky Marchini (@sky.skymarchini.net) September 29, 2025 at 9:18 PM

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None of them can keep from smirking — they’re so happy that vulnerable people will suffer!

Leavitt: "They want food assistance programs for women and children and impoverished communities to continue going out the door. All of that will come to an end if Democrats vote against this CR that Republicans are proposing."

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) September 29, 2025 at 8:44 AM

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Hassett: "If money is not appropriated for a position, they then have the authority to eliminate the position. It's very intuitive. And that's an enormous amount of leverage over the Democrats … if they shut it down, then they might not like the consequences."

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) September 29, 2025 at 4:35 PM

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Ironically, Trump doing that little video with Schumer and Jeffries blows up the entire strategy Thune, Vance and Johnson had, which is to frame Democrats as being unreasonable and unwilling to negotiate.
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/a…

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— Eric Michael Garcia (@ericmgarcia.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 10:45 PM

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An actual journalist who cared about the country would write a story about how Republicans leaving town without a spending bill is the height of irresponsibility and completely disrespects the public and their duty to us as citizens

And instead you cover it as a game https://t.co/8D8Sn49DEY

— The okayest poster there is (@ok_post_guy) September 30, 2025

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: LoomingPost + Comments (253)

Late Night Open Thread: Pete Hegseth, WARFIGHTER!

by Anne Laurie|  September 30, 20252:44 am| 53 Comments

This post is in: Military, Open Threads, Trump Crime Cartel

They said Hegseth is becoming increasingly “obsessed” with his own security and exhibits frenzied behavior, such as fidgeting and pacing during meetings.
“Dude is crawling out of his skin,” another source said.

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— Jason "Red5" Lyall (@jaylyall.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 4:56 PM

War with his personal demons, it sounds like. Wonder if he’ll bring his ball bearings to fondle at the meeting?

… The defense secretary—who prefers the moniker “Secretary of War”—is being described by staffers as “manic,” erupting into fits of rage and tumultuous tirades, the Daily Mail reported on Monday.

While he has reportedly always been temperamental, two staffers claim the former Fox News star’s mental state has reached new, frenzied heights after the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk earlier this month…

Also under scrutiny are Hegseth’s extensive personal security demands, which, according to the paper, are now straining the Army agency responsible for protecting him. The Army’s Criminal Investigation Division (CID) has reportedly pulled agents away from criminal probes in order to safeguard Hegseth’s residences in Minnesota, Tennessee, and Washington, D.C.

Sources told the Mail that those security measures have, in part, been driven by Hegseth’s [third] wife, former Fox News producer Jennifer Rauchet Hegseth, whose requests for protection go “far beyond” what’s been granted to other Trump administration officials…

 

More importantly, if your objective is regime consolidation over the military, then bringing together 800 irritated top officers is the worst possible idea. They wouldn’t normally conspire electronically, but stranding them together during a govt shutdown gives them time to talk & compare notes.??

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— Sanho Tree (@sanho.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 5:58 PM

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Breaking WaPo:
Military leaders have raised serious concerns with the Trump admin's new defense strategy — exposing a divide between the Pentagon's political and uniformed leadership.
?The critiques from multiple top officers, including the chairman of the Joint Chiefs.

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— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 7:55 PM

Great photo choice, yes? Gift link:

… The critiques from multiple top officers, including Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, come as Hegseth reorders U.S. military priorities — centering the Pentagon on perceived threats to the homeland, narrowing U.S. competition with China, and downplaying America’s role in Europe and Africa.

President Donald Trump will attend the abrupt gathering of generals and admirals at Marine Corps Base Quantico, where Hegseth is expected to deliver remarks on military standards and the “warrior ethos,” even as uniformed leaders fear mass firings or a drastic reorganization of the combatant command structure and the military hierarchy.

The debate over the National Defense Strategy — the Pentagon’s primary guide for how it prioritizes resources and positions U.S. forces around the world — is the latest challenge for top military officials navigating the Trump administration’s unorthodox approach to the armed forces.

People familiar with the editing process, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe sensitive deliberations, described a growing sense of frustration with a plan they consider myopic and potentially irrelevant, given the president’s highly personal and sometimes contradictory approach to foreign policy…

show full post on front page

Trump political appointees within the Pentagon’s policy office — including some officials who have previously criticized long-standing American commitments to Europe and the Middle East — drafted the strategy, now in its final edits.

The draft plan has been shared widely with military leaders from the global combatant commands to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, some of whom questioned what its priorities would mean for a force designed to respond to crises around the globe, according to three people familiar with the matter…

The document’s tone is also far more partisan than past strategies, saying the Biden administration caused an erosion of America’s military in rhetoric similar to Hegseth’s speeches, two people familiar with the plan said.

Hegseth, meanwhile, is leading an overhaul of the armed forces, promising to cut the roughly 800 generals and admirals overseeing the U.S. military by 20 percent and redraw the lines of the U.S.’s combatant commands. The secretary has already fired senior officers, including Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. and Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti. A disproportionate number of women have been relieved during the sackings…

That interim document also hinted at the emerging strategy to use military personnel in a more assertive role at home and abroad. The Pentagon was directed by Hegseth to “prioritize efforts to seal our borders, repel forms of invasion including unlawful mass migration, narcotics trafficking, human smuggling and trafficking, and other criminal activities, and deport illegal aliens in coordination with the Department of Homeland Security,” according to the document.

“‘He gave Hegseth very frank feedback,’ one of the two people said, noting Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby was also included in the discussion. ‘I don’t know if Hegseth even understands the magnitude of the NDS, which is why I think Caine tried so hard.’”
Meritocracy.

— NotreDale (@notredale.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 8:02 PM

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Hegseth has had a lot of bad ideas, but this one is disruptive and even somewhat dangerous. All of these men and women have real jobs they should be doing.
www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/…

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— Tom Nichols (@radiofreetom.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 7:06 PM

Gift link:

Everyone loves meetings! Who isn’t a fan of those congenial time wasters common in the government, where an entire organization piles into a poorly ventilated auditorium to hear the leadership explain things that could have just been an email?…

But Secretary of Defense/War/Lethality Pete Hegseth isn’t going to use that technology. Instead, he recently decided that some 800 generals and admirals needed to come, in person, from every corner of the planet to a Marine base at Quantico, Virginia, reportedly to listen to their boss, a former TV host, lecture them on the “warrior ethos”—and, for some reason, personal grooming. The Tuesday meeting will feature not only Hegseth but also a last-minute addition: the commander in chief himself….

It is possible, of course, that Hegseth is convening this jamboree because something genuinely terrible is afoot. Perhaps he wants all of America’s top officers in the same room when he tells them, for example, that the United States is on the brink of going to war, or that the Pentagon has been deeply compromised by spies and all of our military secrets are now in Moscow or Beijing. But if America is heading into a crisis, then Hegseth’s call for a meeting is even more irresponsible, because in a time of danger all these people should be at their posts, not in an auditorium in Virginia.

More likely, however, Hegseth is ordering up a “loyalty check,” which is what the military calls it when the bosses schedule a surprise meeting just to make everyone show up. As the least qualified defense secretary in modern history, he must know that he has a credibility problem with many senior national-security leaders, and he is clearly angry about the leaks—often about him—dribbling out of the Pentagon on an almost-daily basis. The secretary may see this as a chance to remind America’s military who’s in charge…

What if something more substantive is in the works? Americans—and Congress—should be especially alert for anything that goes beyond a “Come on in for the big win” speech from either Hegseth or Trump. One possibility is that Hegseth is going to engage in some personnel-related shock and awe, and fire people in front of their colleagues. The officers, as The Atlantic’s editor in chief, Jeffrey Goldberg, said on Washington Week last week, “don’t know if they’re coming to a pep rally or the Red Wedding.” Hegseth is on the record saying that the military is too top-heavy with senior officers, but a public dismissal of U.S.-military leaders would be both terrible management and a gift to our enemies. (Imagine Vladimir Putin’s smirk as he tells the Russian general staff: “At least you don’t work in the Pentagon.”) It is nonetheless conceivable that some officers will arrive in Quantico as top commanders and leave as retirees.

Another possibility is that Hegseth has decided that his schemes for reorganizing the U.S. military just aren’t being taken seriously enough. Hegseth has been getting resistance to his push to reshape several military commands, so he may be trying to announce new structures as a fait accompli and then order the officers—who would have to draw up the actual plans—to make them happen. Hegseth surely knows that they can still slow-roll his ideas into oblivion, and he may have called this meeting because he somehow thinks he has enough force of personality to stare down some 800 men and women who were officers when he was still in high school…

In the end, I suspect that Hegseth is trying to bolster his stature by flexing his bureaucratic muscles. He’s disrupting the work and daily life of hundreds of people to emphasize that he has the power to do so. Like Trump himself, Hegseth seems to feel the need to do things that others think are unwise as a way of demonstrating toughness and independence. Both men remind me of Miles, the creepy child in the Henry James novella The Turn of the Screw. When Miles misbehaves, his governess asks him why he would do such a thing. “Why, it was to show you I could!” he says. “And I can again.”

i will admit that it is very funny to imagine generals (and their egos) reading an email telling them they’re being summoned to washington by a fucking guardsman for a lecture on the wArRiOr MiNdSeT

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— GOLIKEHELLMACHINE (@golikehellmachine.com) September 29, 2025 at 8:30 PM

IT’S FINE IT’S JUST A LITTLE COKE, IT’S NOT LIKE I AM DRINKING YOU KNOW

— GOLIKEHELLMACHINE (@golikehellmachine.com) September 29, 2025 at 8:12 PM

WELL, NOT MUCH, AT LEAST. NOTHING BEFORE LUNCH. UNLESS I’M UP FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE. ITS UNDER CONTROL.

— Malaclypse the Middle (@malaclypse.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 8:16 PM

i have known more than one dry drunk who developed *devastating* stimulant problems after they quit drinking

— GOLIKEHELLMACHINE (@golikehellmachine.com) September 29, 2025 at 8:11 PM

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you know, one possible outcome of Trump crashing the Generals Sesh is that Trump develops a new mancrush on a new man in uniform

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— post malone ergo propter malone (@proptermalone.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 8:03 PM

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It works on so many levels…

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— Dana Houle (@danahoule.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 2:20 PM

Late Night Open Thread: Pete Hegseth, WARFIGHTER!Post + Comments (53)

War for Ukraine Day 1,313: Z’chor Babyn Yar!

by Adam L Silverman|  September 29, 20259:18 pm| 29 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Picture of the ravine at Babin Yar, Ukraine

(The ravine at Babyn Yar)

Today is the 84th anniversary of the Babyn Yar massacre.

Today, Ukraine commemorates the Babyn Yar massacre – one of WWII’s darkest chapters.

In Sept 1941, Nazis executed tens of thousands, mainly Kyiv’s Jews, along with Roma, POWs, and civilians.

Babyn Yar stands as a symbol of Holocaust horrors. We remember to prevent history from repeating.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 12:07 PM

Here is the press release I was sent by email from the Babyn Yar Holocaust Memorial Center:

Amid War in Ukraine, Historic Discovery at Babyn Yar

Babyn Yar Holocaust Memorial Center Finds Over 1,000 Previously Unidentified Babyn Yar Victims

Babyn Yar Holocaust Memorial Center Finds Over 1,000 Previously Unidentified Babyn Yar Victims

On 84th anniversary of the massacre, names read aloud at the massacre site for the first time; new discoveries made possible through unprecedented archival access and digitization during wartime

KYIV, Ukraine – September 29, 2025 – On the 84th anniversary of the Babyn Yar massacre, the Babyn Yar Holocaust Memorial Center (BYHMC) revealed today the names of more than 1,000 newly identified victims, read aloud for the first time in a ceremony at the massacre site that included the Jewish Kaddish memorial prayer. Despite the ongoing war in Ukraine and the difficult security conditions, researchers have restored the names of 1,031 individuals whose fate was previously unknown.

The discovery is part of a wider progress report presented by BYHMC. As of today, the museum’s database contains 29,671 names of victims, enriched with details such as ages, addresses, relatives, professions, and circumstances of death. Among the more than 1,000 newly identified names are victims as young as nine months old and as old as 102, underscoring the indiscriminate nature of the massacre. Since the war began, more than 2,000 existing records have also been updated and corrected.

Babyn Yar is the largest killing site outside the Nazi camps – the blood-soaked ravine in Kyiv where, on September 29–30, 1941, on the eve of Yom Kippur, 33,771 Jews were murdered in just two days. Over the two years of German occupation, about 100,000 people, including Jewish families, Roma, and Ukrainian political prisoners, were murdered there by the Germans and their local collaborators. Babyn Yar became the largest mass grave in Europe and a symbol of the “Holocaust by Bullets.” The massacre is regarded as the beginning of the “Final Solution” in the Soviet Union, carried out not with gas chambers but through direct gunfire and extraordinary brutality. During the Soviet era, memory of the massacre was suppressed, and Jewish victims were not mentioned by name.

The new discoveries were made possible in part thanks to the opening of archival sources in Ukraine that had been closed for 75 years. During the war, the Babyn Yar Holocaust Memorial Center scanned about 7 million documents, creating a digital archive of 8 million items – the largest in Eastern Europe.

Among the newly discovered materials are applications to adopt children orphaned after their parents were murdered at Babyn Yar, petitions by citizens seeking legal recognition of relatives’ deaths for inheritance, remarriage, or financial support, and birth certificates from the 1920s and 1930s that helped identify children murdered alongside their parents. One striking case is a 1946 legal file detailing the plea of Zindel Kravetsky, who sought recognition of the deaths of his wife and three children – 8-year-old Aron, 6-year-old Zoya, and 4-year-old Vova – all murdered at Babyn Yar. Another record documents Rakhil Meirovna Kravets, born in 1863, who fled Korosten to Kyiv at the outbreak of the war, only to be murdered in the killing ravine.

Since the war began, 300,000 people, including international leaders and Ukrainian citizens, have visited the Babyn Yar memorial site. Approximately 600 educational tours have been conducted, underscoring the growing commitment to remembrance even during wartime.

Natan Sharansky, Chairman of the Babyn Yar Holocaust Memorial Center, said: “Memory is a moral weapon against denial, oblivion, and distortion. The war in Ukraine is an ideological war no less than a war over territory. There is a blatant attempt to undermine history and even erase it. Every name we succeed in restoring to existence contributes to Holocaust commemoration and advances justice and dignity for its victims. I salute the work of our researchers, who continue tirelessly under fire. Precisely in times of war, the obligation to defend the truth is doubled.”

Today, September 29, 2025, the Babyn Yar Holocaust Memorial Center and the International March of the Living held a memorial event at the National Library in Jerusalem marking the anniversary of the massacre. At the event, the newly uncovered names of victims were revealed, followed by a discussion titled “Memory Under Attack,” focusing on the challenges and importance of Holocaust research and commemoration.

Speakers at the event will include Minister Zeev Elkin, Ukraine’s Ambassador to Israel Yevgen Korniychuk, Natan Sharansky, Chairman of the Babyn Yar Holocaust Memorial Center, Sallai Meridor, Chairman of the National Library, Dani Dayan, Chairman of Yad Vashem, Yigal Cohen, CEO of the Ghetto Fighters’ House Museum, Prof. Dina Porat, Chief Historian of Yad Vashem, Revital Yakin Krakowsky, CEO of March of the Living Israel, and Dr. Yohai Ben Gedalia, CEO of the Central Archives for the History of the Jewish People at the National Library. The event was opened with an exhibition featuring items from Ukraine’s Jewish community before the war.

Revital Yakin Krakowsky, CEO of March of the Living Israel, added: “Babyn Yar, the symbol of the ‘Holocaust by Bullets,’ tells the story of more than 2 million Jews who were shot and thrown into mass graves across Eastern Europe. On this day, we bring their story, honor their memory, and pray for an end to the war in Ukraine. We hope to march in Kyiv at the Babyn Yar memorial site next year, which will mark 85 years since the massacre.”

This is not an endorsement of either the March of the Living program overall, it’s Israeli portion, nor Israel. Nor is it a commentary on what Israel is doing in Gaza or the West Bank, which is unacceptable from both a human and a Jewish perspective.

Last night Carlo Graziano was considering the Ukrainian strike on the Russian manufacturing plant:

The HIMARS strike hypothesis on Belgorod power infrastructure makes sense to me. The range seems right, and almost all Ukrainian drone strikes seem focused on oil/gas targets at the moment.

Except for that strike at the electro-technical manufacturing plant in Karachev. That seems new. It’s an economic target rather than a strictly military target, so it seems in line with the theory animating the Oil Plan attacks, but it is a departure from those attacks. I wonder whether the Ukrainians are generating target lists working from some economic model of the Russian supply chains that is broader than just oil supply. If so, we may see more such attacks on Russian industrial infrastructure in the weeks ahead

ETA: On reflection, the Ukrainian long-range drone campaign really got going in early August, but their development and manufacturing schedules must have been in place for at least a year before that. So they have had a lot of time to ponder and plan the best use of those offensive resources as they come on-line. It is entirely possible the the Oil Plan is only the first phase of an economic offensive that is scheduled to develop and grow with increasing Ukrainian drone capabilities and production rates.

As we saw with Operation Spider Web, Ukraine appears to have a named operation with different phases to strike relevant Russian targets using a variety of means. I expect that what we’ve been seeing with the petroleum industry strikes are lines of effort within that phase of the overall named operation. As for the manufacturing plant in Karachev, it may not be part of a different phase within the named operation. Rather, since it is a legitimate dual use target, it may simply be high up on the Ukrainian Joint Integrated Prioritized Target List (JIPTL pronounced jiptil, though I once heard a Navy captain call it the jipitil), was nominated, the Ukrainian commander decided that it could be hit cleanly, and approved the strike. We’ll have to wait and see if more targets like this start being hit before we will have a better idea if there is a phase of the named operation to strike these types of targets.

“There will be no safe place for Russia — Ukrainian weapons can reach any military targets on its territory, said Ukraine’s Deputy Foreign Minister.” – Sybiha, during his speech at the Warsaw Security Forum.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 10:42 AM

President Zelenskyy participated in the Warsaw Security Forum today.

Here’s the video with English closed captioning turned on.

And here is his address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

We Are Planning Contracts and Production to Ensure That Our Arsenals Are Sufficiently Supplied – Address by the President

29 September 2025 – 21:07

Fellow Ukrainians!

I held a Technology Staff meeting. Manufacturers of our weapons – long-range weapons – were there. The key issue was production volumes. Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense and other government officials, our Defense and Security Forces, and all the major Ukrainian drone and missile producers took part in today’s discussion. This is the format that works best – when everyone is involved in the same conversation, everyone whom it truly concerns is involved in preparing important decisions, everyone has the chance to provide real information, and no one has the opportunity to lie. There were indeed differences in the assessments of our production potential and the actual capacity of the companies – yesterday and today I spoke in detail with our manufacturers. And afterward, all those responsible on the state’s side for contracts and for financing were present. We need to maximize production, and Ukraine’s manufacturing capacity is still far from fully utilized. We are directing Ukrainian funding so that every company capable of delivering quality results receives an order and can fully carry it out. Partners are helping us with financing, especially for drones. This is important and tangible, and I thank you for it. The task of the Ministry of Defense and all involved institutions is to ensure that manufacturers receive as many orders as they can realistically fulfill.

At today’s Staff meeting, reports were presented on our long-range needs in the near term, through the end of the year, and over the longer horizon. The accuracy of our warriors helps defend the entire country. We are planning contracts and production to ensure that our arsenals are sufficiently supplied. We are also working on exports – controlled exports of certain types of our weapons where we have a surplus – which can truly provide Ukraine with additional funds to produce the items that are in short supply and urgently needed at the front today, as well as those that have proven most effective in striking deep inside Russian territory. Agreements have already been reached on four export destinations: the United States, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. We will be preparing the relevant deals.

We also spoke separately with the military about the operational situation, and the Commander-in-Chief delivered his report. The Dobropillia counteroffensive operation continues. I want to thank all our units involved for their effectiveness. As of the beginning of this day, our forces have liberated more than 174 square kilometers since the start of the operation, and more than 194 square kilometers have been cleared of Russian sabotage groups. Russian losses in this operation alone amount to nearly 3,200, the majority of them irrecoverable. Reports were delivered on the situation in Kupyansk, on the situation in the Kharkiv border areas, and in the areas at the junction of the Donetsk and Dnipro regions. The situation there is difficult, but it is important that Ukrainian warriors – our units – are doing everything necessary to defend their positions. Thank you for this. I also want to single out our guys today who shot down a Russian military helicopter with an FPV drone – this achievement inspired many Ukrainians. The crew of the FPV Unmanned Systems Battalion of the 59th Separate Assault Brigade – thank you, guys!

I spoke with President Sandu and congratulated her on the parliamentary election victory. These are historic elections – Moldova managed to achieve much more than simply defending itself against the destabilization Russia is fomenting. Moldova won the chance to be in Europe, and that means good economic and social prospects.

Today, I also took part in the work of the Warsaw Security Forum. And although it was online, it was quite productive. In Europe, our challenges are shared, and we must respond together. Sanctions against Russia are important – we expect the 19th package. We also need support for our defense and for building common defense tools – we need a joint defense of Europe’s eastern flank against Russian drones and missiles. A major support could also be limiting Russia’s destructive activity at sea. If tankers used by Russia are indeed being used to launch drones that are troubling Europe, then it is clearly time to close the Baltic Sea and other seas to these tankers. What matters is to act strongly. Russia understands nothing else. Russians must know where the borders are and where the line is. I thank everyone who is helping us!

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

Day 306 of #GeorgiaProtests. In Tbilisi, the flags of Moldova and Ukraine were flown alongside the Georgian and EU flags. 🇬🇪🇲🇩🇺🇦🇪🇺

Photos by MOSE

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— Katie Shoshiashvili (@kshoshiashvili.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 2:19 PM

A Georgian court has ordered ex-President Mikheil Saakashvili and former SSPS head Temur Janashia to repay nearly 9M GEL to the state budget over misuse of public funds.

Saakashvili is already serving an 8-year prison sentence in connection with the case.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 9:14 AM

The regime in Georgia continues their new tactic of family property seizure threats.

After Droa party member Natia Letodiani’s case, another Droa member Shushana Matsaberidze’s family is targeted. 1/

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 9:45 AM

Shushana’s family lives in Khobi, Western Georgia. Shushana lives in Tbilisi. She owns no property whatsoever and all her accounts are already frozen.

Shushana refuses to yield to the terror and pay anything despite a one-month warrant to do so. 2/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 9:45 AM

Can you just imagine how desperate the Georgian Dream is to suffocate the #GeorgiaProtests?

#terrorinGeorgia 3/3.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 9:45 AM

“As long as Moldova’s in CIS, it would be hard to congratulate them – we’ll wait until they leave the CIS, and then we’ll review the issue of congratulating them [on the elections].”

– GD Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 5:08 PM

🇬🇪✊🏻🇲🇩 #Moldova #MaiaSandu

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— ⚫️🐦‍⬛ 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@theskyisnotblue.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 12:33 AM

Hungary:

“Ukraine is not an independent country. It is supported by the West. We give it weapons. Ukraine should not behave as if it is sovereign.” – Orbán.

Translation and full video:
t.me/c/1443468027…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 12:17 PM

Orban fpv footage 4k ultra hd

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— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 12:18 PM

Poland is surely on its own wave but h*ngary is one of the biggest eu beneficiaries while contributing nothing

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— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 12:26 PM

A spoof book cover. It has a bunny standing on it's hind legs, wearing a yellow rain coat, and holding a closed red umbrella in its right hand. It is facing slightly to the left and it's left hand is raised and pointing to the spook title, which reads: "Oh Christ. It's THIS ASSHOLE AGAIN."

The EU:

🇵🇱🇪🇺 Europe must realize that it is already at war, — Tusk

The biggest and most important task of our leaders today is to make other people, the entire Western, transatlantic community, realize: this is a war. We did not want this, it is sometimes strange — a new type of war, but still a war.

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 6:44 AM

Would’ve been nice if they’d realized this when Putin actually started waging war on them about ten years ago or so. Or when he declared it at the Munich Security Conference in 2007.

Denmark:

🇺🇦🇩🇰Ukraine sends military to Denmark to boost country’s drone defenses.

Amid growing drone threats, Ukrainian specialists have arrived in Denmark for joint exercises. Together with Danish forces, they will train to counter UAVs, share experience, and strengthen air security. t.me/GeneralStaff…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 2:15 PM

Romania:

🇷🇴 Today, fragments of a Russian drones were discovered in Tulcea County, Romania. Based on photo and video published by Romanian media, at least two Russian drones violated Romanian airspace and crashed on the country’s territory.

One is a “Delta” reconnaissance/decoy drone.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 1:55 PM

/2. The second, shown in the video, is a Shahed-type kamikaze drone.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 1:57 PM

The US:

In this one, Kellogg confirms what Zelenskyy previously hinted in his Axios interview: the old Western weapon use restrictions are gone.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 8:44 AM

I don’t think this means the US restrictions have been removed. I think it means that the US disapproval for Ukrainian strikes deep into Russia imposed by the Biden administration has gone by the wayside, as long as the Ukrainians use their own home grown weapons systems and munitions.

Back to Ukraine.

As I was just saying:

Ukraine’s own “long-range” weapons systems are coming into use, altering the strategic balance in the air war. Sustained strikes on fascist Russia’s military-industrial complex could start to alter the balance in the ground war in Ukraine’s favor as well.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 6:19 AM

‼️ There will be no victory over Ukraine, we need to get out of the war, – Girkin-Strelkov

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 3:29 PM

It is important to remember that Girkin is the Black Sea Cossack that served in Russia’s successful attempt to carve a piece out of Moldova – now doing business as the organized crime statelet known as Transnistria – and was one of the leaders of Russia’s subversion and initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014.

I’m going to kill some civilians tonight because I can’t make Ukrainian army surrender. Also because cos you let me.

— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 2:14 PM

The last part is funny because it’s true.

Full video of a russian Mi-28 attack helicopter getting absolutely wrecked by a Ukrainian FPV drone 😍

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 6:30 AM

A beautiful sight of a falling Russian Mi-8, shot down today by FPV drone.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 9:34 AM

“Smile, you’re on Candid Camera!”

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 5:24 AM

👀 nice!

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 11:13 AM

The next time someone tells you that russia is “fighting to save Christianity,” show them these Ukrainian churches bombed by the invaders.

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— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 10:47 AM

Birds of Magyar unit blows up buildings with Russians.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 2:34 PM

Interceptor drone chases Russia Lancet loitering munition

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 12:34 PM

Kharkiv:

Russian FPV drone struck a civilian car carrying a family in Kharkiv Oblast. The father was killed. His wife and 14-year-old daughter were injured.
#HumanSafari #Ukraine

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 3:05 AM

Russian occupied Crimea:

Something is on fire in occupied Feodosiya. Allegedly oil depot 👀

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Kherson:

Kherson was hit again today. As it is every day. Russia hunts civilians for sport, calling it a “human safari,” or a “Kherson safari.” Today, they killed a man.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 8:27 AM

Kyiv:

The moment of yesterday’s strike on a kindergarten in one of Kyiv’s districts.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 7:16 AM

Dobropillia:

“As a result of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ counteroffensive near Dobropillia, approximately 175 square kilometers have already been liberated.” -Syrskyi.

www.facebook.com/CinCAFofUkra…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 4:16 AM

Karachev, Bryansk Oblast, Russia:

The Ukrainian Navy reported that a missile strike was carried out against the Russian “Elektrodetal” plant in Karachev. Four missiles were launched from a distance of 240 km. (115 km from the border). Statement came from the Navy, it indicates that the strike was carried out with Neptune missiles.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 4:59 AM

Samara Oblast, Russia:

Russian oil refinery in Samara covered with an extreme amount of anti drone structures.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 3:35 PM

Russia:

Putin signed a decree launching the autumn conscription, with 135,000 people expected to be drafted.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 29, 2025 at 8:03 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new Patron video!

@patron__dsns

У кого так само, зізнавайтесь?😅 #песпатрон

♬ Another Day in Paradise – aino!

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

Who has the same, admit it?😅#песпатрон

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,313: Z’chor Babyn Yar!Post + Comments (29)

Interesting Read: Are We Witnessing the Fall of the American Empire?

by Anne Laurie|  September 29, 20252:50 pm| 195 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, KULCHA!

"The high-water mark of America’s influence over the world has come and gone. All empires are transitory, right? If you rise, you’re inevitably going to stagnate and fall," says American political history author and podcaster @mikeduncan.bsky.social.
Interview: www.rollingstone.com/culture/cult…

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— Rolling Stone (@rollingstone.com) September 22, 2025 at 9:48 AM

Well, maybe the Empire will last out our time…

Mike Duncan knows how empires fall. He’s covered history’s most defining collapses, upheavals, and regime changes through the Revolutions and History of Rome podcasts — the latter being a 179 episode, 73 hour long behemoth exploring the trajectory of the Roman Republic and Empire from conception to collapse. He knows what it looks like when things go wrong.

In 2025, it’s clear to Duncan that the American empire, which has dominated global geopolitics for the last century, has passed its zenith. Under the Trump administration, the devolution of the American ideal has accelerated in some ways that could only exist in the unique context of the current moment, and others that mirror the predictable, centuries old ouroboros of political power and decline…

So how does the slow unraveling of the American experiment compare to the great declines and revolutionary periods of global history? No one is better positioned to read the room than Duncan.

Let’s start with Rome. We can’t talk about all 179 episodes but let’s do a quick recap of the fall of the Republic and then the Empire.
The fall of the Republic feels more like what we’re dealing with right now. It really has to do with the Roman Republic, emerging, for the first time, as the dominant power in the Mediterranean. And that kicks off like the cycle of economic inequality starts to grow between the very richest Romans and the poorest Romans, and that leads to all kinds of social conflict.

There is a civil war on the peninsula of Italy, between Italians who just want citizenship in order to participate in the society they’re a part of, and the Roman old guard who are trying to resist it. As these conflicts are starting to get heated up, the politicians themselves lose track of any kind of propriety or bounds about what can and should be done in order to pursue your own political agenda.

If you lose a vote or you lose an election, how do you respond? There used to be a very stable consensus that you basically accepted defeat. In the Roman world, the political leaders and the military leaders are identical. So now you have political leaders who are in charge of entire armies, and they are now going to start throwing those armies at each other, and that’s really what leads to the breakdown of the Roman Republic.

In the 21st century, in America, we have huge disparities of wealth and income inequality, and we have fights over citizenship and who gets to participate in our polity right now, and how that’s sort of tearing us apart. And we have politicians who were like, “Oh, did I lose an election? Let’s stage an armed insurrection inside the Capitol on January the sixth.”

And after the Republic collapses, the empire continues to exist for another 500 years.

When the Republic became the Empire, it’s not like Augustus said, “I am the Emperor now, and this is an empire.” There were still elections every year, there was still jockeying among the senatorial classes to get these offices and win these elections. The entire apparatus of the Republic was maintained in place as a facade. It was just that all power was ultimately absorbed into this person…

show full post on front page

If I’m trying to bring this back to the U.S., there was a moment right in the aftermath of Jan. 6 where it almost felt like the Republican elite were willing to break with Trump, and he managed to exert authority and pull everyone back in. How does party capture — the subservience of entire systems — factor into this?
It’s just a very prototypical cult of personality. Part political party, part extension of one person that we’ve seen all throughout history.

It will be very interesting to see what happens when Trump finally dies, and what will happen to this movement, how much of it is truly beholden to his unique celebrity status, which he has over any of the other members of this movement. If you remove that, what happens to the movement? Does somebody else manage to come in and replace him and be the new focal point of the cult of personality? I don’t know that any of them have the juice for that…

Was the fall of Rome this dumb? This is very serious stuff, but sometimes it feels deeply stupid.
I don’t think it was this dumb. I’ve really given thought to this. First, dumb to who? Because most people back in Roman times were illiterate and totally disconnected from the news of the World. Ninety percent of the people were just peasants, illiterate peasants, living in their little villages and so they didn’t know what was going on…

Maybe it was that stupid, but nobody would have known. Our curse these days is that because of mass literacy, mass education, mass communications, we are subjected to every stupid thing that these people do, and we’re all highly aware of all the stupid things that they are doing to dismantle the perfectly, basically, perfectly functional society that we had going on.

The big point that I wanted to make, though, is that there’s a certain type of person in history, they’re called the court favorite. You’ve got a king or a queen who’s taken a shine to some stable boy, or an actor, or some woman that they’ve decided to sleep with, or some man. And because they’re the court favorite they’re suddenly made the Secretary of State, and all the other nobles in the kingdom are like, “Why is that guy a secretary? Why is he going to negotiate with the Hapsburgs?” And the guy’s an idiot and he’s stupid, and he usually winds up either thrown out, or assassinated, or beheaded because they’re way over their heads.

What our government currently presupposes is, “What if everyone running the government was a court favorite?” At the level of court favorite: ability, intelligence, awareness of what’s going on, like, actually good ideas, they have none of these things. Our entire government is run by the court favorites. Instead of just having it be like one person who’s messing things up, it’s literally everybody…

Is the U.S. past the point of no return?
I don’t know. I will tell you I am congenitally an optimist. I have a Pascal’s Wager thing going with hope and optimism, that it’s probably better to act as if hope can possibly exist than to just say there is none and we’re doomed. So my official answer is, we’re not doomed, and there are ways out of this, because there’s ways out of anything. We’re ingenious little creative monkeys, we can get out of scrapes. We’ve gotten out of scrapes before. Maybe we can get out of this scrape.

I would hate for the takeaway to be that things are hopeless and that we’re just doomed. That just because things look like they’re very bad, and they will end badly, that means that they’re going to end badly. That’s not actually the case and there are always ways to fight and turn things back.

Interesting Read: <em>Are We Witnessing the Fall of the American Empire?</em>Post + Comments (195)

Shutdown Information – Knowledge Is Power, Right?

by WaterGirl|  September 29, 202511:50 am| 110 Comments

This post is in: Breathtaking Corruption, Breathtaking Criminality and Lawlessness, Open Threads, Politics

Good article from Jackie on what happens in a shutdown.

Maybe government will shut down this week, or maybe in a few weeks if a clean CR (Continuing Resolution) is passed, or maybe it won’t shut down at all.

Still it’s good to know what we’re looking at, and my takeaway from this article is that in the past, the government has prepared for the possibilities, and plans are in place – even when it doesn’t come to that.

As far as I can tell, there hasn’t been much planning, and what planning there has been has not been for the greater good.

A federal government shutdown is nearing. Here’s a guide for what to expect.

Sep 26, 2025 | 2:58 pm ET
by Jennifer Shutt Ashley Murray Jacob Fischler Ariana Figueroa Shauneen Miranda

WASHINGTON — Congress’ failure to pass a short-term government funding bill before midnight Tuesday will lead to the first shutdown in nearly seven years and give President Donald Trump broad authority to determine what federal operations keep running — which will have a huge impact on the government, its employees, states and Americans.

A funding lapse this year would have a considerably wider effect than the 35-day one that took place during Trump’s first term and could last longer, given heightened political tensions.

The last shutdown didn’t affect the departments of Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Labor and Veterans Affairs, since Congress had approved those agencies’ full-year funding bills.

Lawmakers had also enacted the Legislative Branch appropriations bill, exempting Capitol Hill from any repercussions.

That isn’t the case this time around since none of the dozen government spending bills have become law. That means nearly every corner of the federal government will feel the pain in some way if a compromise isn’t reached by the start of the fiscal year on Oct. 1.

States Newsroom’s Washington, D.C. Bureau offers you a quick guide to what could happen if Republicans and Democrats don’t broker an agreement in time.

How does the White House budget office determine what government operations are essential during a shutdown?

Generally, federal programs that include the preservation of life or property as well as those addressing national security continue during a shutdown, while all other activities are supposed to cease until a funding bill becomes law.

But the president holds expansive power to determine what activities within the executive branch are essential and which aren’t, making the effects of a shutdown hard to pinpoint unless the Trump administration shares that information publicly.

Presidential administrations have traditionally posted contingency plans on the White House budget office’s website, detailing how each agency would shut down — explaining which employees are exempt and need to keep working, and which are furloughed.

That appears to have changed this year. The web page that would normally host dozens of contingency plans remained blank until late September, when the White House budget office posted that a 940-page document released in August calls for the plans to be “hosted solely on each agency’s website.”

Only a few departments had plans from this year posted on their websites as of Friday afternoon.

The White House budget office expects agencies to develop Reduction in Force plans as part of their shutdown preparation, signaling a prolonged funding lapse will include mass firings and layoffs.

While the two-page memo doesn’t detail which agencies would be most affected, it says layoffs will apply to programs, projects, or activities that are “not consistent with the President’s priorities.”

Trump will be paid during a shutdown since Article II, Section 1, Clause 7 of the Constitution prevents the president’s salary from being increased or decreased during the current term.

No one else in the executive branch — including Cabinet secretaries, more than 2 million civilian employees and over 1 million active duty military personnel — will receive their paycheck until after the shutdown ends.

Other sections from the article:

  • Are federal courts exempt from a shutdown since they’re a separate branch of government?
  • What happens to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid?
  • Will the Department of Veterans Affairs be able to keep providing health care and benefits?
  • What happens to immigration enforcement and immigration courts?
  • Will people be able to visit national parks or use public lands during a shutdown?
  • What happens to the Internal Revenue Service?
  • Do federal employees get back pay after a shutdown ends?
  • What role does Congress have during a shutdown?

 

Shutdown Information – Knowledge Is Power, Right?Post + Comments (110)

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