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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

“woke” is the new caravan.

It is not hopeless, and we are not helpless.

He really is that stupid.

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

These days, even the boring Republicans are nuts.

The Giant Orange Man Baby is having a bad day.

If you voted for Trump, you don’t get to speak about ethics, morals, or rule of law.

Since we are repeating ourselves, let me just say fuck that.

The rest of the comments were smacking Boebert like she was a piñata.

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

I don’t recall signing up for living in a dystopian sci-fi novel.

An almost top 10,000 blog!

Not loving this new fraud based economy.

The “burn-it-down” people are good with that until they become part of the kindling.

Russian mouthpiece, go fuck yourself.

Roe is not about choice. It is about freedom.

I did not have this on my fuck 2025 bingo card.

Donald Trump found guilty as fuck – May 30, 2024!

It’s pointless to bring up problems that can only be solved with a time machine.

Be a wild strawberry.

The unpunished coup was a training exercise.

Trump should be leading, not lying.

Dear media: perhaps we ought to let Donald Trump speak for himself!

Do not shrug your shoulders and accept the normalization of untruths.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

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Good Non-Political News

by Tom Levenson|  July 26, 202411:21 pm| 61 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Science & Technology

Hey everyone! Proof of life here. My book MS is in (and accepted!*). I just sent off the final (I hope) illustration list to both the design department and the picture researcher. So maybe…just possibly…I might be able to do the odd post here.

I got lots of thoughts about our political adventures, most notably that while I’m having as much fun with furniture fetishist Vance, this remains an existential fight, as Trump says the quiet part out loud: if he wins, this is our last election. But there are better front-pagers (and commenters) on this beat, so I thought I’d try to get some less immediately obvious takes on these times we’re living in.

And why not attempt to restart some bloggery with some decent news.  Biomedicine has been spinning off some amazing results lately.  Here are two that will do so much to relieve human suffering…

First: fascinating new insights on lupus:

A new study about the underlying mechanisms of lupus presents a novel way to potentially treat the autoimmune disease…

The study’s findings raise a “compelling idea” for a novel way to treat lupus, said Deepak Rao, a rheumatologist at Brigham and Women’s Hospital, associate professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School and one of the senior authors of the study.

The linked WaPo article is a good explainer. The TL:DR is that the research team–a collaboration between scientists at Boston’s Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Northwestern University–identified a specific mechanism within certain T cells that could produce the disregulation of the immune system that creates the damage associated with lupus. The work is VERY preliminary, but if the causal account holds up, the details of that mechanism suggest a way to address the disease at the cellular level.

Which is to say: clinical benefits, if any, are a long way off. But lupus is a wretched disease, and creating a detailed molecular account of the disease process is a crucial foundational step towards being able to treat and hopefully reverse its effects.

Second: this is just cool…

NASA’s Perseverance rover has found a very intriguing rock on the surface of Mars.

An arrowhead-shaped rock observed by the rover has chemical signatures and structures that could have been formed by ancient microbial life. To be absolutely clear, this is not irrefutable evidence of past life on Mars, when the red planet was more amenable to water-based life billions of years ago. But discovering these colored spots on this rock is darn intriguing and has Mars scientists bubbling with excitement.

As the reporter, Eric Berger emphasizes, this isn’t a discovery–yet.  Dots on a rock do not in themselves admit the conclusion that microbes once lived on Mars.

Good Non-Political News

They could be–but the limit of what can be gleaned at this distance is, as Berger writes, “The distinctive colorful spots, containing both iron and phosphate, are a smoking gun for certain chemical reactions—rather than microbial life itself.”

To go further, chunks of Mars have to make it back to earth. Sample return is a hugely challenging mission. I hope it happens in my lifetime. But whether or not it does, this is still at once a delightful possibility and, in some sense, a work of art. Perseverance serves no practical purpose. It was made and it performs because enough of us find the attempt to understand nature beautiful in the same fashion that any other gift to our senses and our minds can satisfy.

And here, alas, is where politics reenters the conversation–at least for me. Science is valuable because it contributes to human flourishing. Often in the most obvious, material ways: coming up with a cure for lupus would be a big deal, changing and saving lives. And it can be fun, provide joy, prompt deeper thinking and feeling, as Perservance’s off-roading demonstrates. Neither happens unless as a society we are willing to spend a ton of money on curiosity (the human impulse, not that other Mars hot rod).  Supporting science in DC has historically been a pretty reliably bipartisan affair–but that’s increasingly no longer true.

The range of threats a Trumpist GOP poses to the science and the research capacity of the US is beyond the reach of this late night post; I know the commentariat has all the expertise needed to fill in that story.

For now, let me not harsh the mellow too much. Hairless bipeds remain capable of doing great things. We can enjoy them.

G’night all. This thread is as open as will be the first 7-Eleven on Deimos.

Image: Hendrik ter Brugghen, Mars Asleep, 1629

Good Non-Political NewsPost + Comments (61)

War for Ukraine Day 884: Constant Air Raid Alerts for Kharkiv

by Adam L Silverman|  July 26, 20248:43 pm| 22 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Three quick housekeeping notes: First, Rosie is still doing very well. There was no post-treatment strong reaction this week. She has next week off and then goes for her third treatment of the third round a week from Monday. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, apparently we’re getting a new commenting policy, which is really a moderation policy. We don’t actually need a new one, we just need an update. And that update is simply a zero tolerance policy to antisemitic, racist, homophobic, transphobic, Islamophobic, and closely related types of comments. The current policy is well over a decade old and was not designed for what has happened in the US over the past nine years since Trump announced his first run for president with an openly racist statement and created a permission structure for people to bring their bigotry out into the light of day. This one adjustment to the policy will resolve the problems we’ve been experiencing, which fortunately have been relatively few, since 2015. Though having to deal with three people making antisemitic comments since October, two of whom tried to get around their bans, is still three too many. Fortunately, these are still few and far between, but none of our readers or commenters or front pagers should have to deal with bigotry in the comments. The current policy is fine for all the other issues we occasionally have.

Last night, wjca asked:

Do you happen to know if Harris has (or is likely to have) a different national security team? If so, are they likely to have a different approach?

Yes, I do. First, almost every member of Biden’s senior nat-sec team has been in place since early to mid 2021 depending on when their confirmations were finalized (for those that needed Senate confirmation). The big departure was Colin Kahl, who was the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy (USD-P). He left last summer and the Senate GOP has essentially bottled up his replacement’s nomination. Anyhow, all of these people would have moved on had Biden been reelected as four years in these posts is a long time. If she’s elected, Vice President Harris will bring in her own team. I expect her current National Security Advisor, Phil Gordon, will have pride of place as either her National Security Advisor should she be elected president or in one of the other senior nat-sec appointments/positions. Here’s his bio:

PHILIP H. GORDON is the National Security Adviser to the Vice President of the United States. Previously, he was the Mary and David Boies Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. He also served as the White House Coordinator for the Middle East and Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs in the Obama administration.

I expect, if she’s interested, that Harris’s senatorial national security advisor will get a senior appointment if she wants one. I don’t think I met Gordon when I was working on the 2014 peace process, but my understanding is that he’s a centrist in regards to his nat-sec views. Which makes sense as Obama was big on appointing technocrats that weren’t too far to either side of the issues. I have no idea if he would be more risk accepting than President Biden’s senior people. My impression of Vice President Harris is that she is more risk accepting, but only time will tell.

Kharkiv is, for all intents and purposes, now under twenty-four hour, seven day a week air raid alerts:

You know, scratch that. Air raid alerts in Kharkiv just do not stop anymore.

We had a very brief break, and the alert has been on again since last night, shortly after I posted this. https://t.co/U018MpzAMP

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) July 26, 2024

Yay 25 minutes of slightly less stressful life in the middle of the night. I fucking hate russia 😒

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) July 26, 2024

Here’s the butcher’s bill from last night’s/this mornings Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine:

Ukraine’s Air Force was not able to down the other aerial target, a single Iskander-M ballistic missile, launched overnight. The impacts of the missile launch are currently unclear.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) July 26, 2024

⚡️ Russian attacks across Ukraine killed at least three civilians and injured at least 19 over the past day, regional authorities reported on July 26.https://t.co/abpfc3POgk

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) July 26, 2024

From The Kyiv Independent:

Russian attacks across Ukraine killed at least three civilians and injured at least 20 over the past day, regional authorities reported on July 26.

In Donetsk Oblast, two people were killed and four injured over the past day, Governor Vadym Filashkin reported.

A Russian strike against the town of Toretsk killed one resident and injured another. Another person was killed in Illinivka, while two were injured in Kostiantynivka and one in Berestok, Filashkin said.

Eight civilians were injured during Russian attacks against Kharkiv Oblast, according to Governor Oleh Syniehubov.

This figure includes two injured in the town of Lozova, two in the village of Kurylivka, three in the Kupiansk district, and one in the Volokhivske village.

Russian attacks against Kherson Oblast killed one person and injured seven, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported.

A medical facility, an administrative building, eight high-rise buildings, 24 houses, and multiple cars were reported as damaged.

In Chernihiv Oblast, one person was injured during a Russian attack against the town of Nizhyn, Governor Viacheslav Chaus said. A residential dormitory was reportedly hit in the attack.

Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Luhansk, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Zhytomyr, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts also came under attack, but no casualties were reported.

Two energy facilities were damaged during the attacks against Chernihiv and Zhytomyr oblasts, resulting in outages in the latter region, Ukrenergo said.

Ukrainian air defenses shot down 20 of the 22 Shahed-type attack drones launched by Russia overnight, the Air Force reported. The defenses did not manage to intercept one Iskander-M ballistic missile.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

Everything Will Be Done to Strengthen Our Positions and Our Ability to Inflict Tangible Losses on the Occupier – Address by the President

26 July 2024 – 20:50

I wish you good health, fellow Ukrainians!

A few things for today.

First – a meeting with the Minister of Defense. About the new defense packages for Ukraine – something we are preparing with our partners. It is important that our warriors receive exactly what they need under these conditions of very intense battles and pressure from the Russian army. In particular, together with the Minister and the military command, we are carefully analyzing the situation in the difficult areas; primarily it is the Pokrovsk direction in the Donetsk region. This is the direction that has been and remains the main focus of Russian attacks. There have been two reports today from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi. Everything must be done and will be done to strengthen our positions, our Ukrainian ability to inflict tangible losses on the occupier.

Second for today. I want to especially acknowledge our warriors who strike at Russian bases and logistics in the occupied territory. The invader must feel that this is Ukrainian land. And each destroyed Russian airbase, each destroyed Russian military aircraft – whether on the ground or in the air – means saving Ukrainian lives. Guys, our warriors, I thank you for your precision!

Third – I have signed several decrees on presenting state awards to our defenders. From the Armed Forces of Ukraine, from the National Guard of Ukraine, the State Border Guard Service. And now I want to mention the units and warriors who have proved themselves in these very weeks, especially in the battles for our state, for our independence. These are the 4th and the 14th operational brigades of the National Guard, the 18th Slovyansk brigade of the National Guard. And also, the warriors of the 1st detachment of the Omega Special Forces Center, who always strengthen our defense in the most difficult areas. Individually: Senior Soldier Andriy Dykun, Junior Sergeants Roman Ilchuk and Oleksandr Sakhnenko, Sergeant Anton Chaika, Chief Sergeant of the Special Purpose Platoon Volodymyr Romaniuk, Lieutenant Ruslan Minchenko. I thank you, warriors! I would also like to mention our border guards. Kharkiv Border Guard Detachment, Sumy, Chernihiv and Luhansk Border Guard Detachments. Units of the Maritime Guard and the Southern Regional Directorate. Kherson Border Guard Detachment. Master Sergeant Stanislav Nalesnikov, Sergeant Vadym Savinov, Senior Sergeant Serhiy Shcherbinа and Chief Sergeant Oleksandr Kasian. Junior Sergeants Kostiantyn Hnatyshyn and Denys Yevstratov, Senior Soldier Mykhailo Urdynets, and Chief Sergeant Kyrylo Ovdienko. Thank you, guys, your brothers-in-arms and all those who defend Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

The Olympic Games started

Too bad these Ukrainian athletes can’t participate

Because russia killed them

The russian imperialist killers haven’t been removed from the event and proudly parade in Paris

Because IOC is russia’s puppet and enabler#BloodyOlympics pic.twitter.com/wqOIAUKSgl

— Jaanus K 🌻🇪🇪🇪🇺🇺🇦🇬🇪 (@jaanus) July 26, 2024

Russia killed 487 Ukranian athletes since the beginning of the full-scale war.
Sport is not out of politics.#BloodyOlympics pic.twitter.com/QJUC90m2j4

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) July 26, 2024

11-year-old Sasha from the Kharkiv region lost his leg as a result of a guided aerial bomb strike.

After losing his leg, he wished to walk again. Sasha got a prosthesis and underwent rehabilitation.

Now, Sasha can even play football!
📹: superhumans. center/Instagram pic.twitter.com/XZ1jYpkKHG

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 26, 2024

The EU:

We are grateful to the EU for taking this vital step.
This transfer will help us strengthen our defense capabilities.
Together, we can achieve a just peace!
🇺🇦🤝🇪🇺 https://t.co/96WbHxCUGW

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 26, 2024

It’s a special financial operation okay pic.twitter.com/ybPJP60HJV

— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz) July 26, 2024

They were Ukrainian-speaking

— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz) July 26, 2024

France:

There was an act of sabotage against the French rail network overnight/this morning.

On France sabotage, so far we have:
– French sources pointing vaguely at far-left
– Israel FM pointing at Iran & proxies
– Everyone generally suspicious of Russia
– No actual evidence

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) July 26, 2024

French rail sabotage—”Two security sources said the modus operandi meant initial suspicions fell on leftist militants or environmental activists, but they said there was not yet any evidence.” https://t.co/QxI60eAeEo

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) July 26, 2024

Too early to attribute the rail sabotage in France and no reason to think cyber was involved yet, but one interesting piece of context: Russian actors (Sandworm/GRU) probed computer networks associated with rail in advance of the Tokyo Games.

— John Hultquist (@JohnHultquist) July 26, 2024

“Matthieu Chabanel, head of SNCF Réseau, which runs the infrastructure for France’s national state-owned railway, provided more details about the acts of sabotage, saying cables were burned and then cut.” https://t.co/CT0tL0qr5r

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) July 26, 2024

From France24:

France‘s high-speed rail network was hit by “malicious acts” including arson attacks that have disrupted the transport system, train operator SNCF said Friday, hours before the opening ceremony of the Paris Olympics.

“This is a massive attack on a large scale to paralyse the TGV network,” SNCF told AFP, adding that many routes would have to be cancelled.

“SNCF was the victim of several simultaneous malicious acts overnight,” the national train operator said, later adding that vandals had damaged signal boxes along the lines connecting Paris with cities such as Lille in the north, Bordeaux in the west and Strasbourg in the east. Another attack on the Paris-Marseille line was foiled.

“Arson attacks were started to damage our facilities,” it said, and explained that traffic on the affected lines was “heavily disrupted” with many cancellations, and that the situation would last through the weekend as repairs are conducted.

Two security sources said the modus operandi meant initial suspicions fell on leftist militants or environmental activists, but they said there was not yet any evidence.

French officials described the attacks on France’s high-speed rail network as “criminal actions” and said they were investigating whether they were linked to the Olympic Games.

The disruptions as the world’s eye was turning to Paris were expected to affect a quarter of a million people on Friday and endure through the weekend, and possibly longer, officials said.

French security forces are hunting the people behind Friday’s attacks that hobbled the country’s high-speed rail network, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said.

“Our intelligence services and law enforcement are mobilised to find and punish the perpetrators of these criminal acts,” Attal posted on X, calling the attacks “prepared and coordinated acts of sabotage against (rail operator) SNCF’s installations” with “huge and serious consequences for the rail network”.

But Attal declined to speculate when asked in a TV interview about the possibility of leftist militants or environmental activists being behind the sabotage.

The Paris prosecutor opened a probe into a suspected bid to undermine “fundamental national interests”, saying that the crime carries up to 20 years in prison.

The investigation will also probe suspected damage inflicted by an organised gang and attacks on an automated data processing system, Paris prosecutor Laure Beccuau said in a statement.

SNCF urged passengers to postpone their trips and stay away from train stations.

Eurostar also said its rail services between London and Paris had been disrupted by the acts of vandalism, resulting in several cancellations and longer journey times.

More at the link.

The Financial Times has more:

France has suspended high-speed rail services across much of the country after the network was hit by sabotage attacks hours before the Olympic Games opening ceremony.

The co-ordinated arson attacks on Thursday night will alarm organisers of the Paris summer games as they prepare to host hundreds of thousands of spectators in the capital for the opening ceremony to be held on the Seine river.

“Fires were set intentionally to damage our infrastructure, and teams of engineers are already on the ground working to solve the issue,” high-speed rail operator SNCF said. “Many trains will have to be cancelled.”

Eurostar — which runs trains between London and Paris as well as high-speed services between cities in France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany — said it was cancelling a quarter of its services on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

No official statement has yet been issued about who was behind the attacks. French officials have previously warned that Russia or political activists could seek to sabotage the Games, and have also been bracing for terror attacks. Interior minister Gérald Darmanin said earlier this week that four attacks targeting the Olympics had been thwarted.

“There is an absolute determination to find and identify the culprits and learn more about their motivations,” said Prime Minister Gabriel Attal.

He cautioned against jumping to conclusions about who might be behind the attacks, saying an investigation was just beginning.

Jean-Pierre Farandou, the chief executive of SNCF, said three fires were set around the same time and were discovered by staff at about 4am. Fire-starting materials were found nearby.

A fourth incident targeting a southbound line was prevented by SNCF workers, who came across the suspects and chased them off. Police are tracking the suspects, in what is the most promising investigative lead.

Farandou vowed to re-establish services as quickly as possible and said the SNCF would not let “a bunch of crazy, irresponsible people” stop them from doing their jobs.

Estimating that 800,000 travellers would be affected through the weekend, he said pipes that carry electric cables had been hit, requiring painstaking work to repair. TGV high-speed trains will be redirected to ordinary lines, which will cause delays and cancellations.

“It’s a manual operation. Each cable then needs to be tested,” Farandou said of the repair work.

However, SNCF repair workers made quicker than expected progress on Friday, prompting the company to say that traffic would run normally along TGV lines headed eastwards. The northbound trains serving Lille and Brussels would be running four out of every five trains with some delays, and westbound two out of three also with delays.

Security and transport officials had been contingency planning for such incidents during the years-long organisation of the Games, but appear to have been unable to stop them.

Valérie Pécresse, who heads the Ile-de-France region that is responsible for transport, said it was a “massive and co-ordinated attack” affecting equipment that supplies electricity to the trains.

For months, European security officials have been on high alert over the threat of Russian sabotage. This spring, intelligence agencies across Nato shared covert information about Russian intentions to step up acts of violence in Europe.

The assessment came after several plots were foiled across the continent, and information was obtained from Russian spy rings disrupted by security officials.

The Paris prosecutor’s office said the investigation into the train attacks would be led by its organised crime division.

Asked about the possibility that Russia was behind the attack, Vergriete told the FT on Friday evening that “all signs show it’s not a case of official foreign interference.”

As he stood in the viewing stands waiting for the Olympics opening ceremony to start, he added: “The material and methods recovered are not that sophisticated and we’ve seen this before with extremist groups. We can’t exclude anything, of course, but we’ll know soon enough as incendiary material with fingerprints has been recovered.”

More at the link.

As of now no one has either claimed responsibility or had it formally attributed to them. That the former hasn’t happened, has me leaning to this not being a terrorist attack. Or if it was one, then it wasn’t done by one of the big groups like ISIS. No we wait to see what the investigations turn up and whether the saboteurs strike again before they can be identified and stopped.

For you philatelists:

Ukraine’s national mail operator @ukrposhta now has a new set of wartime stamps for charity sales.

This is called Angels of War, and it’s part of the Heroic Professions series.

It’s dedicated to the heroism of battlefield medics. https://t.co/QFfA8VvuNx pic.twitter.com/WUcCZXxU7I

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 26, 2024

I bought the Patron stamps when they became available. I need to get them framed.

Tatarigami and his Frontelligence Insight team have a new assessment of the 2024 front line dynamics. Here’s the summary, contents, and conclusions:

As global attention remains focused on the U.S. Presidential elections, it might seem that the frontline situation has stalled with no significant changes. However, our team has prepared a special report after closely monitoring the movement and composition of Russian forces, assessing their morale, and analyzing captured documentation and POW statements. Additionally, we’ve observed both positive and concerning developments within the Ukrainian army. This comprehensive report aims to clarify the current status on the frontline and offer insights into what we can expect moving forward. We have also addressed the question of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, exploring the feasibility of such talks in the near future and identifying the reasons why they would be difficult to execute.

Contents:

I. Critical Areas: Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Pokrovsk directions

II. Recruitment, Equipment, and Morale in Ukraine and Russia
a) Russia’s Position
b) Ukraine’s Position

III. Forecast

IV. Potential for Negotiations and Enforcement Approaches

III. Forecast

It is unlikely that Russia will halt active offensive operations before mid-fall 2024. Despite fatigue and losses, they have sufficient forces to maintain pressure, particularly in the Donetsk Oblast. However, the remaining forces, reserves, and units currently undergoing training in Voronezh, Belgorod, and Rostov Oblasts suggest that Russia lacks the resources to lay siege to major Ukrainian settlements such as Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. Without these cities, Russia cannot claim to have fully achieved its goal of occupying the entire Donbas region. We also do not exclude the possibility that Ukrainian forces might use new brigades to launch a counter-attack once Russia exhausts its offensive potential. However, this would be an extremely risky endeavor in the current situation. Overall, neither Ukraine nor Russia can achieve their strategic goals with the currently available resources. In an effort to strengthen its position ahead of potential negotiations, Moscow has intensified its campaign against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, particularly targeting energy facilities, as noted earlier in the report. Additionally, a massive and effective online campaign has been launched to exaggerate internal problems and shift the blame from Russia to Ukrainian authorities for the lack of basic services and economic issues, which are actually the result of Russian actions

This brings us to one of the most common questions: why don’t Russia and Ukraine just sit at the negotiation table and resolve the war?

IV. Potential for Negotiations and Enforcement Approaches

Setting aside various political aspects, the situation is much more complicated due to the lack of effective mechanisms for such negotiations.

For instance, during the Korean War, the Korean Armistice Agreement established the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) and ceased hostilities. A key factor in maintaining this armistice was the presence of US forces, which served as a strong deterrent against another North Korean invasion. Currently, no key countries with significant economic and military power are ready to commit troops on the ground to enforce a similar agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

If we assume that Ukraine and the Russian government could reach an agreement similar to the Korean armistice, where no nation is a signatory and it is purely a military document, the question remains: who would enforce or punish violations of such an agreement? Any law or agreement that cannot be enforced by a third party lacks real power and is therefore extremely risky.

If such a deal involves the retraction of heavy weaponry from a “demilitarized zone,” a critical question arises: which institution or organization will ensure that the Russian army moves back its heavy weaponry? If Russia fails to comply, what mechanisms are in place to punish such actions?

Without a reliable enforcement mechanism, any agreement would be inherently unstable. Should Ukraine withdraw its forces without credible security guarantees, Russia could potentially take over positions without facing consequences. This scenario would deter the Ukrainian side from agreeing to such conditions. Serious security guarantees from third parties such as the EU or the US would be essential.

In other words, the Ukrainian government and society are being asked to trust the word of Putin’s regime that they will not violate an armistice agreement, despite multiple violations of previous agreements and two invasions with territorial annexations over the past decade.

Unfortunately, this leads to the conclusion that if the West is reluctant to provide sufficient aid for Ukraine to win this war, a new and robust security mechanism needs to be established. Without such a mechanism, the war is likely to continue. This may occur in a less intensive manner or with temporary ceasefires, only to be resumed, creating a perpetual conflict zone in Europe. Such a scenario would continue to cost hundreds of thousands of lives and inflict severe socio-political and economic consequences on the region. Without credible and enforceable guarantees, the cycle of conflict is unlikely to be broken.

Much, much more at the link.

Russian occupied Crimea:

Overnight, the Armed Forces of Ukraine struck the Saky air base in the temporarily occupied Crimea, @GeneralStaffUA reports.

Information on the results of the attack is being clarified. pic.twitter.com/gh9efBU2om

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 26, 2024

We continue to destroy the military infrastructure of the russian invaders. Ukraine must have a right to strike military airfields inside russia to protect our people and infrastructure.

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 26, 2024

/2. Russian source associated with Russian military aviation has already commented tonight’s strikes on Crimea with such message:

“The morning is not kind again, country.
Well, did you turn the RC-135 around?
Did you comply with all international standards?
Did it help?… pic.twitter.com/DN75uphZaF

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 26, 2024

Tweet 1:

🚀/1. Today at 2:41 am, residents of Crimea heard at least 13 explosions/strikes from different directions around Yevpatoriya and Saky. Strikes were also carried out on the Russian military airfield in Novofedorivka.

Footage shows a military airfield in Novofedorivka. After the strikes, locals also reportedly heard a secondary detonation from the ground.

Tweet 2:

/2. Russian source associated with Russian military aviation has already commented tonight’s strikes on Crimea with such message:

“The morning is not kind again, country.
Well, did you turn the RC-135 around?
Did you comply with all international standards?
Did it help?
Everything is exactly as I said
Eternal memory…”

Message hints that some Russian personnel were killed during tonight’s strikes.

P.S: Regarding mention of RC-135. Yesterday RC-135 accompanied by two fighter jets of the Royal Air Force has approached Crimea. And Russian ministry of defence has published a video of them “chasing away” a British plane.

Vovchansk:

Vovchansk.

A once thriving Ukrainian city liberated by Russia from all life and any kind of future.

There won’t be any people living in those ruins anymore.

Russian fascism = death and desolation to whatever it touches. pic.twitter.com/PyM4IO43Ly

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 26, 2024

Kherson Oblast:

Destroyed Russian “Pantsir-S1” air defence system. Two Russian servicemen were seriously injured.
Kherson region. 25 July 2024.https://t.co/EdJnZEQCgw pic.twitter.com/3S8euVgI5T

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 26, 2024

Yamalo-Nenets, Russia:

Russian media report an explosion at Rosneft’s largest gas field in Yamal, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous district of Russia.
One person died, seven more wounded.
Local authorities gave no specific reason for the incident. pic.twitter.com/RYZZlpSSUb

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 26, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

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War for Ukraine Day 884: Constant Air Raid Alerts for KharkivPost + Comments (22)

Friday Evening Open Thread: It’s Good to Be A Democrat (Especially Now)

by Anne Laurie|  July 26, 20246:32 pm| 144 Comments

This post is in: Kamala Harris for President, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republicans in Disarray!

NEW AD: “We must win…for them” #Olympics #Harris2024 pic.twitter.com/GYnxwyIca7

— The Seneca Project (@senecaprojectus) July 25, 2024

Every democrat story right now is "Kamala Harris breaks records for turnout and donations during zoom call that kept crashing" and every republican story is "JD Vance once told a four year old that "he would fail at everything," adding that he "could not wait to watch."

— Ed Zitron (@edzitron) July 26, 2024

She was elected Vice President. Plenty of people – Teddy Roosevelt, Calvin Coolidge, Harry Truman, LBJ – became President this way without even facing an election, which Harris will do. https://t.co/w9tz561amE

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) July 25, 2024

Brilliant. No notes. I will fight for women’s rights until my dying breath. This rogue court still has no idea what it has unleashed. Believe me when I say it’s about to find out.#WeAreNotGoingBack pic.twitter.com/Kuk1kVPa0P

— Andrew—Author of America Rises On Substack (@AmoneyResists) July 26, 2024

She's not the step candidate, she's the candidate who stepped up

— coconut-thought (@progress2trees) July 26, 2024

every attack on Kamala Harris just makes her seem more awesome https://t.co/Iowg1I4Hid

— Armand Domalewski (@ArmandDoma) July 25, 2024

Friday Evening Open Thread: It’s Good to Be A Democrat (Especially Now)Post + Comments (144)

The Change That Cole Mentioned Last Night

by WaterGirl|  July 26, 20242:20 pm| 310 Comments

This post is in: Balloon Juice, Open Threads

For 20+ years, Balloon Juice has had an open door policy.  It’s been a place where you can disagree and fight and get over it.  Even when John was still a Republican he asked Tim, who had entirely different political views, to be a front-pager.  Think about that.  The first person Cole invited to be a front-pager held opposite political views.  That’s who John is.  (Tim F, I still hope that you’ll have time for writing here again.)

Balloon Juice will still be that place.  The place where we can agree, or not.  To fight and get over it.  Or not.  Maybe even learn something, and certainly have some fun.  Not to worry, I’m pretty sure you’ll still be able to tell people to fuck off, when needed.  Cole certainly will.

We don’t have to be nice, but we can’t be evil.

Background

After a particularly hot-button banning a few years ago, we laid out a very specific process for banning so we would never have to go through something like that again.  I thought the blog might come apart at the seams, and there are still some hard feelings.

No one was supposed to get banned out of the blue.  You got a 3-day timeout, then if you stepped over the line again, you got a one-week timeout.  After you served your time, if you did it again, you got a one-month timeout.  If you did it again, you were gone.  When we followed the policy, no one got banned out of the blue, without understanding why.

To continue the same behavior after multiple, escalating timeouts?  I think those folks are making an active choice to ultimately be banned, and they want to cause as much trouble as they can on the way out.  Those are the people who will be affected by the new commenting policy, because we will go from 0 to 60 if you are one of those people.

That comment policy served us well. We’re not throwing it out.  But now it’s time to refine it.

Right now, we are in an time where the ugliness is at a fever pitch, and we don’t want to go through another 3 weeks like the last ones.  That would have been rough anyway, but those weeks were made even tougher by the shit stirrers.  (Congratulations, you pulled it off once, not sorry that you won’t be able to do it again.)

It’s totally obvious to everyone of good intent that we don’t have time to waste another three weeks fighting with one another.  Right?

There will be gray areas, which is the one thing that is less desirable about this new policy.  Before, when the policy was followed, it was cut and dried.  Now it’s not.   But in the age of ugliness, where the other side is in the last throes of fighting for their supremacy, it seems necessary.

Several people reported Wil last night.

Was Wil obnoxious last night?  Yes, yes he was.  I think even he would admit that.  Repetitive?   Yes.  Is it annoying when Wil says I told you so  over and over again?  Yes.  Is that ban-able?  No.

So Wil got his childish and annoying na-na-na-na-na I told you so one-night whirlwind tour, and we’ll see where he goes from here.  I don’t know whether Wil is a long-term commenter who went over the edge during the will he or won’t he discussion, or if he truly has bad intentions.  The good news is that it’s up to Wil.  If he’s a good guy who, let’s say, wasn’t this best self during this period, let’s show him some grace.  If he keeps it up, going from thread to thread to thread, saying the same thing, trying to stir up shit?  Yeah, I think that would get him some serious banning consideration.

In Summary

Balloon Juice will still be a place where people can disagree and where we’re very open to new people.  John wants new people to be part of Balloon Juice; I do, too.  Guessing that most of us do?  But we’re no longer open for business to people who are of ill intent.  Not that we ever were before, but our process allowed some of those people to do damage on the way out, as we worked through the steps.

It’s when your goal is to derail a thread – or even if your actions are repeatedly derailing threads, regardless of what your intentions are – that you will be up for serious banning consideration.

It’s when your goal is to be hurtful – that’s when you will be up for serious banning consideration.

If your aim – or the repeated result of your comments – is to disrupt, you’re not going to get the 4-strikes process that will remain in place for everyone else.

We haven’t worked out the details of the process with the front-pagers yet, but here are some of my thoughts.

Maybe this will help clarify?

  • Front-pagers will only be able to nominate someone for banning.
  • Only John can make the final decision to ban a person.
  • Being an arrogant, “I told you so” asshole is not ban-able.
  • Vehemently disagreeing is not ban-able.
  • Having an opinion that is different from most everyone else is not ban-able.
  • Having an opinion that is not just different but is the exact opposite from most everyone else is not ban-able.
  • Holding an opinion that is unpopular is not ban-able.
  • Being regularly annoying is not ban-able.
  • Using too many emojis is annoying to a lot of people, and I get complains about it all the time, but that is not ban-able.
  • If you state that charters schools are great and that Arne Duncan was the greatest cabinet member of all time, you are dead wrong, but that is not ban-able.

What will be ban-able?

  • When you charge in to stir up shit, and you don’t offer anything else, that is ban-able.
  • When every thread you comment in becomes all about you and not about the topic at hand, that is ban-able.
  • Spreading disinformation.  Not mistakenly being wrong about something, but spreading disinformation.  That is ban-able.
  • Saying all Jews must die.  Saying that all the Russian people should be nuked.  Equating Palestinian citizens and Hamas.    Saying someone should be shot in the head.  Just a few examples of what is ban-able.
  • When every thread you comment in turns to shit.  That is ban-able.
  • When you bring up how great charter schools are in every thread and turn every thread into a charter schools thread.  That is ban-able.

You are all welcome to share your thoughts on the new policy we’re developing, and talk about where you think the lines and edges should be.   I can’t speak for anyone else, but personally, I would like to hear your thoughts.

But I will quote an old boss of mine who said he always wanted our input, and he would take our input under consideration. but this wasn’t a democracy and we didn’t get to vote.

 

The Change That Cole Mentioned Last NightPost + Comments (310)

Olympics Thread

by @heymistermix.com|  July 26, 20241:37 pm| 64 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

There was a request for this, so here you go:

Guardian live blog

Reuters video feed on YouTube

Olympics ThreadPost + Comments (64)

Sweetness, I Was Only Joking When I Said…

by @heymistermix.com|  July 26, 202411:42 am| 242 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Unearthed audio: JD Vance calls for a “federal response” to block women in red states from traveling to another state to get an abortion pic.twitter.com/t9YAbFuoPc

— Kamala HQ (@KamalaHQ) July 26, 2024

Man, this fucker is just a gold mine, and by “gold” I mean “shit”. If you can’t watch the video, it’s basically Vance responding to a hypothetical about George Soros sending 747’s to Columbus to pick up “predominantly black” women for abortions. He said then that he’s open to “some kind of federal response”. Now, he knows how Joan of Arc felt.

I don’t know whether JD being roasted every day on social media is going to make a difference in November, but it sure can’t hurt.

Speaking of gold, this ad popped up in Xitter underneath the tweet above.  The website for this looks legit, who knows? I’m not advocating clicking on that link, btw.

Sweetness, I Was Only Joking When I Said...

Speaking of the failing owner of that failed site, Elon’s trans daughter Vivian has spoken out about what a piece of shit he is.

This post is all over the place, but they can’t all be bangers, people.

Sweetness, I Was Only Joking When I Said…Post + Comments (242)

Open Thread: Update – Trump Now Says He Will *Not* Debate Harris

by Anne Laurie|  July 26, 20249:35 am| 292 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republicans in Disarray!, Trumpery

VP: Trump agreed upon September 10 debate. It now appears he is backpedaling, but I'm ready and I think the voters deserve to see this split screen that exists in this race on a debate stage. And so I'm ready, let's go. pic.twitter.com/ys43ssm748

— Acyn (@Acyn) July 25, 2024

As I said yesterday, Trump’s handlers have no intention of letting him debate Kamala Harris. Guess they finally got him to sit down and watch some of the WTF?!? reactions to His Lardship’s bigly RNC acceptance speech. And maybe pointed out that if he tries ‘looming over’ Harris the way he did Hillary Clinton, the nasty Black woman would most likely kick him in the groin with her very pointy shoes. And then laugh. Cackle!

oh they're desperate if they're dragging out "Barack Hussein Obama" https://t.co/yhIFmxxzSu

— knife-wielding hemophiliac (@NickTagliaferro) July 26, 2024

Trump came to Kamala in tears and said, “Sir, I’m too afraid to debate.”

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) July 25, 2024

You can feel the desperation pouring off this tweet https://t.co/jEezdYTQ3p

— chekovian jubilee (@CollieYimby) July 26, 2024

One of the things I love about this matchup is that Trump, though an idiot, does know optics. And he groks the optics of a gorgeous black woman with a tidal wave of support growing behind her, ESPECIALLY compared to him. He knows. God, I love that stress for him. ??

— Anna Maltese ???? ?? ???? (@MalteseAnna) July 25, 2024

What happened to “any time, any place”? https://t.co/HlR6UmlZxx

— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) July 26, 2024

Open Thread: Update – Trump Now Says He Will *Not* Debate HarrisPost + Comments (292)

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