Open Threads

Spain:

Spain is delivering a new military package for Ukraine, which includes 10 Leopard 2A4 tanks, various backhoes, and a significant number of anti-tank rockets.

We are grateful to our Spanish friends for their unwavering support. Leopard tanks have proven themselves on the… pic.twitter.com/k4HAa57BAE

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 15, 2024

Spain is delivering a new military package for Ukraine, which includes 10 Leopard 2A4 tanks, various backhoes, and a significant number of anti-tank rockets.

We are grateful to our Spanish friends for their unwavering support. Leopard tanks have proven themselves on the battlefield and will strengthen our warriors in the fight against russian invaders.
Together, we are stronger!
🇺🇦🤝🇪🇸
@Defensagob

The Day of Ukrainian Statehood asserts the connection of many generations of 🇺🇦 people.

This day honors all the stages of our state formation, from Kyivan Rus’ to the present day, and all who made efforts to make Ukraine an independent state.

Today’s war with the russian… pic.twitter.com/dPGtIJMJEV

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 15, 2024

The Day of Ukrainian Statehood asserts the connection of many generations of 🇺🇦 people.

This day honors all the stages of our state formation, from Kyivan Rus’ to the present day, and all who made efforts to make Ukraine an independent state.

Today’s war with the russian aggressor is a struggle for our future and national identity.

We will definitely protect our independence and our statehood. We will win!

The EU:

#BREAKING The European Commission has decided to boycott Hungary’s EU Council presidency in response to Viktor Orbán’s controversial trips to Moscow and Beijing.

— euronews (@euronews) July 15, 2024

PoliticoEU has the details:

European Union foreign affairs ministers are set to snub Hungary by organizing their own foreign affairs summit in August instead of traveling to Budapest for Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s event.

Hungary, which holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, plans to host a foreign affairs summit in Budapest on August 28-29 — a prime opportunity for Orbán to try to shape the bloc’s foreign policy agenda and for his Foreign Affairs Minister Péter Szijjártó to stand in the limelight.

But after Orbán obstructed aid for Ukraine and his self-styled peace visits to Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, which he didn’t coordinate with the EU’s 26 other national leaders, many foreign ministers have been hunting for a way to avoid becoming props in what they believe would be another Orbán propaganda show.

Enter Josep Borrell. The EU’s foreign policy chief will summon the ministers to a “formal” foreign affairs council at the same time as Orbán’s summit, according to three EU diplomats with direct knowledge of the plan and who requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the move.

It comes after Hungary’s envoy to the EU, Bálint Ódor, was harshly criticized by his colleagues at a meeting earlier this month, with Slovakia the only country not taking the floor. By boycotting its foreign affairs summit, the ministers hope to limit Hungary’s trolling.

“If there’s a formal foreign affairs council, organized by the high representative [Borrell] the same day, the ministers won’t be able to go to Budapest,” said one of the diplomats.

Another added that by boycotting the Budapest meeting, the other foreign ministers wanted to “send a clear signal that Hungary does not speak for the EU.”

More at the link!

Ukraine:

Christopher Miller summarizes the new polling of Ukrainians attitudes, as well as President Zelenskyy’s remarks about making changes in his political appointments. Via the Thread Reader App:

Ukraine today: A fresh poll shows Ukrainians’ interest in negotiations; and Zelensky tells Ukrainian reporters he’s “not afraid” of Trump 2.0, and signals more govt shakeups likely ahead. (Rumors of PM Shmyhal’s departure, etc. have swirled for months.) 🧵 

A new poll by @RazumkovC for @zn_ua found that 44% of Ukrainians believe it’s time for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia (35% say not yet; 21% undecided). That’s a big shift compared to last year, when 64% of Ukrainians opposed talks with Moscow.

44% українців вважають, що настав час для переговорів з РФ – результати соціологічного опитування ZN.UAПри чому жителі східних регіонів готові до переговорів менше, ніж громадяни із заходу та центру України.https://zn.ua/ukr/UKRAINE/44-ukrajintsiv-vvazhajut-shcho-nastav-chas-dlja-perehovoriv-z-rf-rezultati-sotsiolohichnoho-opituvannja-znua.html

@RazumkovC @zn_ua But vast majority of Ukrainians – 83% – disagree with Putin’s conditions, which would include the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from beyond the administrative borders of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia regions just to start talks.

44% українців вважають, що настав час для переговорів з РФ – результати соціологічного опитування ZN.UAПри чому жителі східних регіонів готові до переговорів менше, ніж громадяни із заходу та центру України.https://zn.ua/ukr/UKRAINE/44-ukrajintsiv-vvazhajut-shcho-nastav-chas-dlja-perehovoriv-z-rf-rezultati-sotsiolohichnoho-opituvannja-znua.html

@RazumkovC @zn_ua By region: 60% of Ukrainians in the country’s south are ready for negotiations; 49% in the center; 35% in the west; and 33% in the east, closest to the front and under daily attack. – @RazumkovC poll 

@RazumkovC @zn_ua Additionally, 77% of Ukrainians oppose lifting Western sanctions on Russia as part of negotiations.

58% oppose demilitarizing and adopting “neutral, non-nuclear status,” one of Putin’s key demands. (22% are for.)
– @RazumkovC poll 

@RazumkovC @zn_ua Speaking at a press conference in Kyiv, Zelensky said: “As for Trump’s vision for ending the war: I understand it in general. I think if Mr. Trump becomes the president then we will work [together]. I’m not afraid of that.”

Zelenskyy describes Ukraine’s expectations of Republican administration in USVolodymyr Zelenskyy, the President of Ukraine, has stated that his government is ready to cooperate with any political force in the US, specifically the Republican Party in case it comes to power.https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/07/15/7465760/

Zelensky answered a Q about a long-rumored govt shakeup looming: “We cannot just talk about replacing the prime minister… there may be changes in the government. Most likely, yes. We are engaged in this process. We are consulting some ministries on specific adjustments.”

Zelenskyy on possible changes in government: We are engaged in this processPresident Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that potential personnel changes in the Cabinet of Ministers, the Ukrainian government, were discussed with individual ministers, including Prime Minister Deny…https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/07/15/7465763/

@RazumkovC @zn_ua On mobilization: Zelensky said that Ukraine’s mobilization campaign is going according to plan since a new law was adopted in May, but there are not enough training bases for the troops. He’s hoping to expand them, including into Poland.

Зеленський: Мобілізація йде за планом, але майданчиків для підготовки недостатньоПрезидент Володимир Зеленський заявив, що мобілізаційна кампанія в Україні йде за планом, однак тренувальних баз недостатньо.https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2024/07/15/7465775/

@RazumkovC @zn_ua Zelensky also said that a Ukraine arms maker “produces the largest number of artillery systems per month compared to factories in Europe.” Among those being produced is the Bohdan self-propelled gun.

Óêðà¿íà âèðîáëÿº íàéá³ëüøó ê³ëüê³ñòü ÑÀÓ íà ì³ñÿöü â ªâðîï³ – ÇåëåíñüêèéÓêðà¿íñüêå ï³äïðèºìñòâî, äå çáèðàþòüñÿ ÑÀÓ “Áîãäàíà”, º ðåêîðäñìåíîì â ªâðîï³ çà ê³ëüê³ñòþ âèïóùåíèõ îäèíèöü íà ì³ñÿöü.https://www.epravda.com.ua/news/2024/07/15/716661/

Here’s the link to an English translation of the summary of the survey results.

Fresh poll:

44% of Ukrainians believe the time has come to begin official peace negotiations with Russia

35% don’t think so.

At the same time, 83% would oppose Ukraine’s hypothetical withdrawal from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia, which is what Putin wants as his…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 15, 2024

Fresh poll:

44% of Ukrainians believe the time has come to begin official peace negotiations with Russia

35% don’t think so.

At the same time, 83% would oppose Ukraine’s hypothetical withdrawal from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia, which is what Putin wants as his prerequisite for (nothing but) “ceasefire” and the beginning of talks.

Moreover, 84% oppose the idea of ceding these territories to the aggressor, which is again Putin’s demand.

77% oppose lifting all international sanctions on Russia.

58% oppose enshrining Ukraine’s “neutral, non-nuclear status” in the country’s constitution as demanded by Putin.

In other words, there are little illusions about Putin’s “peace proposals” in Ukraine.

Ukrainians want peace as no one else out there.

But Russia will use a short pause in the war to regroup and recoup its losses and to disarm Ukraine and strip it of Western defense aid as part of a “peace deal” — only to attack again soon in a much better shape.

And Russia needs Ukraine to stay out of NATO not because NATO is somehow an “existential threat” to the world’s largest nuclear power – but because it needs Ukraine defenseless, unprotected, and vulnerable to next phases of the Russian invasion.

There are ways out:

1. Providing Ukraine with stable, constantly expanding defense assistance based on long-term, strategic, and large-scale growth of the West’s defense production and investment.

2. Not giving the fascist Russia a chance to catch its breath amid its increasingly problematic large losses in hostilities; not buying the tempting sweet talk from the world’s No. 1 liar and the author of the largest European war of aggression since Adolf Hitler.

3. Dropping the failed and compromised policy of trying to please the Kremlin by not admitting Ukraine to NATO since the mid-2000s.

Keeping Ukraine out of history’s most successful defense alliance despite an obvious Russian threat not only failed to prevent a major European war but also made it guaranteed and inevitable as Putin had no barriers on his way to trying to take Kyiv.

It’s time to finally put one’s head out of the sand and think over the question why not a single Russian bomb is falling on Tallinn, Riga, Vilnius, or Warsaw, and why entire cities are razed to the ground in “neutral” non-NATO Ukraine right now.

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The Avdiivka-Pokvrosk front:

The situation on the Avdiivka-Pokrovske front is currently very difficult! The enemy continues to advance towards the key logistical route Pokrovske-Kostiantynivka and, unfortunately, is advancing.

We are asking for support for our front, please @jana_skhidna… https://t.co/MkK4NTKOvH pic.twitter.com/NdCWCMsALf

— ✚ Oksii ✚ (@Oksii33) July 15, 2024

The situation on the Avdiivka-Pokrovske front is currently very difficult! The enemy continues to advance towards the key logistical route Pokrovske-Kostiantynivka and, unfortunately, is advancing.

We are asking for support for our front, please
@jana_skhidna

https://send.monobank.ua/jar/yzzi7qW5w
РауРаІ: [email protected]

The enemy attacks the positions of our defenders daily, with assault actions ongoing in Vozdvyzhenka, Prohres, Novoselivka Persha, and Yasnobrodivka (the situation in the last two is particularly bad!). The enemy has taken a very active approach towards Novoselivka Persha and is making every effort to break through to the road leading from the village to Zhelanne (if this road is cut off, the situation will worsen sharply).

Enemy FPV drones are causing significant trouble in the direction, flying 10-15 km from the frontline (Mykolaivka, Novohrodivka), with several incidents of hits on civilian vehicles already reported.

Constant enemy assaults and KABs (guided aerial bombs) are yielding results, and they have achieved success on several sections of the Avdiivka front.

Novomykhailivka front:

Russian tank nicknamed “Gramozeka 2.0” (written with a typo). Destroyed by the 79th Brigade on the Novomykhailivka front. https://t.co/Xwx0qYmjcA https://t.co/cy3I0QD2bQ pic.twitter.com/x6EFDNrT74

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 15, 2024

Vovchansk:

The town of Vovchansk lies in ruins – a tragedy for its residents and yet another city erased from the map of Ukraine, recorded in a bloodstained list by russia. pic.twitter.com/VpMST9kxEq

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) July 15, 2024

Russian occupied Crimea:

A Russian military unit near Cape Fiolent was attacked in temporarily occupied Crimea, there were 8 explosions, Crimean Telegram channels report.

This is a division of S-400/S-300 missile systems from the 12 anti-aircraft missile regiment (m/u 85702). It is likely that one of… pic.twitter.com/jALxNaj2d1

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 15, 2024

A Russian military unit near Cape Fiolent was attacked in temporarily occupied Crimea, there were 8 explosions, Crimean Telegram channels report.

This is a division of S-400/S-300 missile systems from the 12 anti-aircraft missile regiment (m/u 85702). It is likely that one of the radar stations was damaged, there was also an explosion at the S-400 position.

Waiting for official confirmation.

“Russia’s Disruptive Actions Show that European and Asian Security Security Cannot be Decoupled. ” My piece for @BrookingsFP https://t.co/IQj2vnmOjA

— Angela Stent (@AngelaStent) July 15, 2024

From the Brookings Institution.

As NATO celebrated its 75th anniversary in Washington, it faced a Russia that continues its brutal aggression against Ukraine, is waging hybrid warfare against Europe, is working hard to turn the non-Western world against the West, and is now developing a new Asia strategy.

China is the anchor of Vladimir Putin’s Asia strategy. Since China stepped in to support Russia after the annexation of Crimea and the outbreak of the war in the Donbas in 2014, Moscow has become increasingly reliant on Beijing. This dependence has grown since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. China has reiterated the Russian narrative blaming NATO for the outbreak of the war and, through its exports of goods that contribute to Russia’s military-industrial base, it enables Russia to continue the war.

China is not only Russia’s lifeline in this conflict but both countries are allied in calling for a multipolar “post-Western” world that will move away from U.S. domination. They seek to build an axis of authoritarians that appeals to a receptive group of countries in the Global South. China is Russia’s top trading partner, although it is much more important for Russia economically than vice versa. Putin benefits from the reality that Xi Jinping does not want Russia to lose the war, because he fears that a post-Putin Russia could be run by a leader who might reconsider Russia’s antagonistic relationship with the West and would improve ties with the United States and Europe—to China’s detriment.

The increasingly close relationship between Moscow and Beijing—despite its asymmetries and differences of interest between the two powers—represents a danger to NATO because it strengthens Russia’s ability to continue its aggression in Ukraine, further threatening European security.

A new axis of resistance

Putin has, in the past two years, created an “axis of resistance” of countries that facilitate his aggression—China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. Iran provides drones that Russia uses in Ukraine, and Moscow appears to be supplying Tehran with advanced weapons, probably accepting that Iran will become a nuclear weapons state. Iranian support of Hamas and Hezbollah destabilizes the Middle East and also threatens NATO countries since its actions could lead to a wider war with the West.

Putin’s recent visit to Pyongyang showcased North Korea’s growing role in his pivot to Asia and the two countries’ increasing ability to disrupt both Asian and European security. Putin received a lavish reception in Pyongyang and signed a bilateral strategic partnership agreement that includes a mutual defense provision that echoes NATO’s Article 5 clause. Putin declared that Moscow has nothing to lose and is prepared to go “to the end” to achieve its goals in Ukraine. His visit serves as a reminder that North Korea not only enables Russia to continue its brutal war, but Moscow may enable Pyongyang to strike out against a close Western ally, South Korea, in a move that could destabilize both Asia and Europe.

Thus, European and Asian security have become increasingly interconnected since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Putin, enraged by increased Western military and financial support for Ukraine, has again made nuclear threats against countries supporting Ukraine. He has announced that Russia will develop a new class of intermediate-range nuclear weapons and may deploy them near NATO countries. He warns that, if Russia loses the war, the 1,000-year-old Russian state will collapse. This is, he says, an existential war for Russia’s survival. The West should, he insists, accept his latest peace plan. This would involve Ukraine eschewing NATO membership and withdrawing its troops from and recognizing the four territories annexed by Russia in September 2022, none of which Russia fully controls, as Russian territory.

Russia’s continuing military assault on Ukraine comes amidst an unprecedented rise in hybrid cyberattacks and acts of sabotage in Europe, including arson at a factory site belonging to a German arms and ammunition maker. Russian espionage activities are also on the rise. And while this is taking place, Moscow is reaching out to what it calls the “global majority” to present itself as the leader of the anti-imperialist world, claiming that it has no colonial past, and exhorting the Global South to follow it in resisting American “hegemony” and creating a new “democratic,” multipolar international order.

More at the link!

Russia:

“Putin can always find more men”, one hears people say, justifying Western inaction.

Except it can’t. It’s not possible for Moscow to recruit endlessly. Nor is it even desirable for the Kremlin.

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

My @Telegraph latest:https://t.co/5cCt65aey5

— Francis Dearnley (@FrancisDearnley) July 15, 2024

Here are the details from The Telegraph:

Lies, damned lies, and statistics. If anyone knows how to falsify figures to bolster weak causes, it is the Kremlin.

From Stalin’s manipulation of Soviet productivity statistics during his Five Year Plans, to Khrushchev’s exaggeration in the Cold War of his missile numbers, no entity has proved as effective at fabricating facts to demoralise, unsettle and outmanoeuvre opponents.

Today, in a similar manner, Putin points at Russia’s 144 million citizens and argues, through his propaganda mouthpieces, that it is “impossible” for Kyiv to win his war, given Ukraine’s population is a paltry 37 million.

By this logic, figures released by British intelligence this week – that Russia lost more than 70,000 troops in the past two months, averaging daily conflict highs of 1,262 and 1,163 in May and June – become irrelevant. “Russia can always find more men”, one hears people say, justifying Western inaction.

Except it can’t. Raised on documentaries about the “unstoppable” Russian bear – capable of tearing its way through Eastern Europe, as it did in the Second World War – we forget that this is not possible in modern Russia. Nor is it even desirable for Moscow.

For one, while Putin has conducted several large-scale mobilisations, he remains cautious both in terms of the numbers of men he recruits and where they come from, prioritising conscripting in poorer communities far away from the power centres of Moscow and St Petersburg; often marginalised ethnic minorities. Already, some of these communities have given all they can, with reports of entire generations of men being wiped out in some towns and villages, triggering widespread, if localised (for now), protests.

Moscow’s caution in this regard means it is obliged to empty prisons, exonerating murderers and rapists so they can serve in the Russian army or mercenary outfits like Wagner. Again, this resource is not infinite: numbers are now said to be so low that Moscow is turning to women’s prisons. Given that, by design, women only make up 4 per cent of the Russian army, this is extremely telling.

But these are still relatively minor impediments when considered against broader trends. Russia’s fighting age population, at 14 million, is not gargantuan. With many not eligible or undesirable for recruitment for geographic reasons, the number shrinks further. Many of Russia’s young fled after the full-scale invasion: an estimated 300,000 by mid-March 2022, 500,000 by the end of August, and an additional 400,000 by early October. Estimates put the current number of the departed at over a million.

I could go on. Russia is not as powerful as the Soviet Union: approximately half of the Soviet population came from what today are non-Russian countries – and even then, twice as powerful in numerical terms, it lost its war in Afghanistan in the 1980s. That conflict underscores that army size is only part of the equation.

Indeed, many of the vital components necessary to win wars – like military adaptability and modern tech – work in Kyiv’s favour. That’s before one considers its will to survive as a free nation. And one cannot put a figure on that.

More at the link.

Koronevko, Kursk Oblast, Russia:

Russian media report that a low-voltage equipment plant is on fire in Korenevo, Kursk region of Russia after a drone attack. pic.twitter.com/5UKMlVRhdH

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 15, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

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