Because caipirinhas in Brazil.
How To Recognize A Russian Intel Operation
When you work at a place like Los Alamos, one of the potential job hazards is that the spy services of other countries may try to recruit you. Between required training sessions and the rumor mill stories about successful and other attempts, you learn how it’s done.
Rolf Mowatt-Larssen explains some of it. The Donald Trump, Jr., meeting was of a different sort than what I was warned against, although there are many similarities.
The warning signs are clear if you are aware of how such things work. A Russian (or Chinese, or perhaps other nationalities) colleague offering help out of nowhere, which seems to have been the case for Donald Jr., should raise questions. At a lower level, an acquaintance would not start with such an offer, but merely a personal interaction. Then favors might be exchanged, copies of scientific papers shared, leading up to more questionable types of sharing.
Considering that sequence, I suspect that Mowatt-Larssen’s article is not quite complete. Russian contact with Rob Goldstone, who then contacted Donald Jr., was a gentle testing of the waters, but it’s likely that even gentler testing preceded that.
Both Donald Trumps have been fascinated by Russia since the 1980s. But that is not the same as being willing to work with Russia during his political campaign. The earlier testing would have been among people working for the Trump campaign. This is where Jeff Sessions’s contacts with Sergey Kislyak, Carter Page’s talks in Russia, Michael Flynn’s romance with RT, and probably other contacts paid off for the Russians.
It’s possible that none of those contacts amounted to offers of collaboration,* just collegiality and trust-building. The responses from the Trump campaign, however, must have been favorable enough for Russian intelligence to believe a next step would be reasonable. Colin Kahl points out that Trump senior was also showing public indications in that direction.
Clearly, Donald Jr. had not had the briefings that Los Alamos employees do. But one might expect some caution when an email proclaims Russia’s desire to help get your candidate elected. The fact that he expressed enthusiasm suggests that 1) winning was all, and any help was welcome or 2) there was a continuity of relationship between the Trumps and Russian figures that made the offer seem normal. Caution was eclipsed.
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* I dislike the horrendously overused word collusion. Lawyers say it has no legal meaning.
Cross-posted at Nuclear Diner.
How To Recognize A Russian Intel OperationPost + Comments (40)
You be the referee
Watch this 15 second clip.
I just saw this clip. It will be on multiple clinics over the next three years as it is a great clip for a few things.
In case you missed it: pic.twitter.com/AetsMQOyf6
— Persian Rose (@PersianRose1) July 14, 2017
Now watch it again.
What do you have?
Monday Afternoon Music (Open Thread)
Ever heard of Eilen Jewell? I’m a fan. Here’s a tune Jewell released a several years back:
My sister and I caught a show a few years ago at a local venue. We had the opportunity to chat with Jewell briefly while she signed our CDs. She was super nice.
When I was a teenager, I lived for going to live music events, despite the fact that weird, shitty things invariably happened. Examples, in no particular order: someone barfed in my purse, my friends and I got separated from our ride and had to hitchhike from Orlando to Tampa, I was assaulted by a goon when I threw a drink in his face to prevent him from punching my friend in the mouth, etc.
After the latter incident, I vowed to give up live music events (except for very small venues) forever. But in 2012, my then-13-year-old just HAD to go to see Lady Gaga’s “Born This Way” tour. Recalling my own misadventures, I sure as hell wasn’t going to let her go with a pack of unsupervised adolescents, and none of the other parents wanted to go, so I went. I didn’t expect to have fun, but it was fabulous!
My kid is old enough to attend concerts without me these days, and I can’t think of any performance that would lure me to a huge venue. But I do like a small-venue concert. Got any favorite bands to recommend? Odd/memorable concert experiences to share? If not, open thread!
Happy Cleek’s Law Day (Open Thread)
Seven years ago today, legendary blogger, commenter and pie-filter baker Cleek came down from the mountaintop toting a stone tablet inscribed with one short sentence and gave Cleek’s Law to the world:
It has served as a handy Rosetta Stone for interpreting the motivations of so-called “conservatives” ever since. Others have expressed similar concepts with enviable eloquence. Valued commenter Davis X. Machina’s “sparrows and old curtain rods” is a classic of the genre. But for my money, Cleek’s simple, elegant formulation remains without peer as an all-purpose “conservatism” explainer.
The law’s anniversary came to my attention a few days ago when I hunted the quote as a response to someone on Twitter who expressed astonishment at hawkish and jingoistic Republicans’ embrace of Putin and Russian interference in the U.S. election. It all makes sense when seen through the lens of Cleek’s Law — evangelicals’ embrace of a degenerate, Republican women’s support for a misogynist, fiscal hawks’ enthusiasm for a corrupt tax cheat — all of it.
If only there were a way we liberals could convincingly pretend to be in favor of codifying Grover Norquist’s tax policy, Ann Coulter’s immigration views, Falwell Jr.’s interpretation of Christianity, Jefferson Beauregard Sessions’ notions of white supremacy, Rick Perry’s ignorance of science, Wayne LaPierre’s reverence for firearms, etc. If we could pull that off, we might usher in an age of rationality and sound governance that would put the Enlightenment in the shade.
Oh well. Happy Cleek’s Law Day, everyone, and open thread!
On The Road – My Trip To Yellowstone
Since Alain is having technical difficulties, I’ll fill in with a travelogue. I drove to Yellowstone National Park last week and stayed four days. It’s a two-day drive from Santa Fe.
If you are driving from the south, I-25 seems like a logical choice. But since the last time I drove to Denver, a lot more people have moved in. There is now a single city from Colorado Springs to Fort Collins, and the current state of I-25 is inadequate to it. Pueblo will join that city within the next couple of years.
I-80 across Wyoming is not so crowded, but there are many trucks. They drive more slowly than cars and can be easily passed. The route I recommend to Yellowstone or Grand Teton is US 287. It is a beautiful drive across the American steppe, but it is two-lane with a 70-mph speed limit. There wasn’t much traffic, though, and many passing lanes and pull-outs. Why are so many people bicycling across Wyoming?
I stayed in an Old Faithful Lodge cabin. I was delighted with the choice, which was my second. It was quiet, and I could walk to the geyser basin. The cafeteria there is not bad, but not special either. The largest number of people cluster around Old Faithful, timed to its eruptions.
McCain and what do we know
As most people know, Senator McCain (R-AZ) had surgery on Friday to address a blood clot. He is in Arizona for at least a week to recover. Senate Majority Leader McConnell has rescheduled the vote on the BCRA for a week.
So what do we know now:
1) Paul and Collins are hard “No” who will not give a courtesy “yes” on a motion to proceed
2) Democrats won’t give a courtesy vote match (ie one Democrat not voting to match McCain)
3) The CBO will have gotten at least another week to score the Cruz amendment
4) More time to pressure expansion state Republican governors to pressure their Republican senators.
5) Sure nice to have good insurance to take care of problems when they pop up.
6) Time to call the Senate.