I Haven’t Disappeared: Some Football Notes and Football Open Thread.

My deepest apologies for my recent lack of posts. I have been working a difficult schedule fulfilling the last classes of my contracted guest lecture assignment and it has been grueling. Most of my keeping up with events has been through the use of mobile devices and I don’t feel comfortable posting from a tablet or smartphone. Also, I am still fighting my post-election blahs. Onwards and upwards!

As you can imagine, here in Brazil the crash of the plane that killed almost the entire Chapecoense football team earlier this week is dominating the news. The grief is palpable all over Brazil. After the grieving abates somewhat, there is another major question: the team is in the top division in Brazil. How do they mount a team for the next season in all competitions? The other question that is more pressing and should be addressed to prevent such future tragedies: how on earth is a professional pilot so unaware of his plane’s refueling needs?

So Bruce Arena is back as head of the US Men’s National Team as Jürgen Klinsmann apparently had apparently passed his sell-by date. Arena has a long and impressive pedigree and, save a horrible non-call against Germany in the 2002 World Cup Quarter-Final, came close to bringing the US to the semifinals of that tournament. I just hope he manages to turn things around as consecutive losses in qualifying make the process a challenge for him. At least no one suggested Steve Sampson!

Barcelona’s form has not been very impressive lately, although they remain in second place, ahead of Sevilla on goal differential. The good news at least is that they will have Andres Iniesta back.

Someone asked me how to say Schadenfreude in Portuguese. My answer? José Mourinho.

Everyone goes crazy for the World Cup and the European Championships, but if you can get to see the Africa Cup of Nations tournament, do not miss it. The final in 2015 had Côte d’Ivoire beating Ghana one penalty kicks, with the Ivorian goalkeeper, Boubacar Barry scoring his kick and then defending successfully against the Ghanian keeper, Brimah Razak. This, by the way, was after Côte d’Ivoire missed its first two attempts. Final total on the penalty kicks was 9-8.

Speaking of goalkeepers, if this doesn’t make the Puskas Award finalist list for next year, then there is no justice.

Finally, if you want to vote on this year’s Puskas Award, here is where you vote. All are worthy contenders, but what Mohd Faiz Subri did in Malaysia is unreal.

Friday Afternoon Musical Interlude (Open Thread)

For your listening pleasure:

Does anyone know the origins of the “Rubberband Man” concept? Wikipedia (don’t get me started) says, “The song, written by producer Thom Bell and singer-songwriter Linda Creed, was about Bell’s son, who was being teased by his classmates for being overweight. Intended to improve his son’s self-image, the song eventually evolved from being about “The Fat Man” to “The Rubberband Man.”

Okay, but why a rubberband? Oh well. Sometimes you have to just let art wash over you and not analyze it too closely. Open thread!

Update on Faces vs. Leopards

This is one of my favorite tweets from the post-election period:

Via TPM, we now have a (metaphorically eaten) face and name to attach to that sentiment:

WASHINGTON (AP) — When Donald Trump named his Treasury secretary, Teena Colebrook felt her heart sink.

She had voted for the president-elect on the belief that he would knock the moneyed elites from their perch in Washington, D.C. And she knew Trump’s pick for Treasury—Steven Mnuchin—all too well.

OneWest, a bank formerly owned by a group of investors headed by Mnuchin, had foreclosed on her Los Angeles-area home in the aftermath of the Great Recession, stripping her of the two units she rented as a primary source of income.

“I just wish that I had not voted,” said Colebrook, 59.

Me too, Ms. Colebrook. Me too.

It’s tempting to wish Ms. Colebrook would just start punching herself in the face now and not stop until 2020, but there is something admirable about her willingness to admit she fucked up.

I suspect that won’t be the case with the lion’s leopard’s share of Trump voters, who will continue to proudly and belligerently proclaim their allegiance to Hair Furor, even when he and his minions are feasting on their noses.

There’s a whole lot of gassing about whether or not Trump voters are reachable by Democrats, and as usual when we’re talking about millions of people, a straight yes-or-no answer is almost certainly too simplistic to be accurate.

I suspect at least some small minority of them are like Colebrook, stupid and/or uninformed enough to be willing to gamble on a terrible person like Trump despite his yawning deficits as a human being rather than voting for the shitgibbon because he’s a racist, sexist, xenophobic bully.

But it doesn’t make any sense to me to remake the party to pursue people like Colebrook, any more than I’d want the party to hand out Corvettes and bottles of Jack to sew up the drunk driver vote.

Anyhoo, open thread.

Morning Open Thread

zoo_bus

JeffreyW shared that photo with me and I loved it. I have been trying to stay away from all things political these days. I have strong opinions, but not ready to share with anyone but my close circle. There are A LOT of changes happening in my life right now, so I’m focused on that for now.

In the meantime, I consider it my duty to provide you with distraction and entertainment. What’s on your entertainment menu this weekend? I’ve been invited to an ice skating party tonight and a chance to raid a friend’s holiday decorations tomorrow, to be followed by BBQ dinner. Then I need to finish putting the gardens to bed, since we’ve finally had a few days of cold weather.

Open thread.

RECIPE THREAD NOTE: There will be no recipe threads for a while, but I’ll probably put together some holiday stuff later in the month. My focus is usually around Christmas stuff, but if anyone wants to send me recipes and info on different holiday celebrations, please do. I would love to post about that – include photos!

Writers Chatting: Meeting Reminder

Just a reminder that there will be a writing group thread on Sunday (Dec 4) at 12:30 EST/9:30 PST. For now we are going to talk process, resources and support. We’ll revisit sharing pieces after the new year.

See you there!

Also: There will be no recipe threads for a while, but I’ll probably put together some holiday stuff later in the month. My focus is usually around Christmas stuff, but if anyone wants to send me recipes and info on different holiday celebrations, please do. I would love to post about that – include photos!

Defined Benefits vs. Defined Contribution

I got some push back in comments yesterday for the following line on Medicare:

The delivery mechanism through which that value is transferred is window dressing…. Everything else is window dressing or mechanics to shift blame for large benefit cuts.

I want to explain my thinking on this.

Right now Medicare is effectively a defined benefit program. The defined benefit is the federal government will make ure that a Medicare beneficiary will get 83% or better actuarial value care. Right now that actuarial value is delivered by either the traditional Medicare Fee for Service System, the CMS controlled FFS derived ACO and advanced payment methodology system or privatized Medicare Advantage plans that have to offer at 83% actuarial value. Drug coverage is provided by privatized Medicare Part D plans. Additional actuarial value can be bought via either private Medicare Supplemental plans or buying up in Medicare Advantage.

If between year 1 and year 2 we see a 20% increase in the cost of providing 83% actuarial value coverage to Medicare beneficiaries, the federal government and thus society picks up the vast majority if not all of the price increase. In the second year, the beneficiary will still be able to get 83% AV coverage.

Are there smart ways of doing this? Are there different ways of doing this that optimize different value functions? Are there more and less confusing ways of doing this? Are there more and less expensive ways of doing this? Are there more and less beneficiary friendly ways of doing this?

Yes, yes, yes, yes, oh my god, yes.

And those discussions and arguments are very well worth having.

That is not the argument in the Ryan plan.

Instead the Ryan plan is switching Medicare from a defined benefit guarantee to a defined contribution. The contribution will be a calculated lump sum that in year one will buy 83% Actuarial value insurance. In normal years of health care cost growth, the lump sum will grow slower than healthcare growth. So in year two, the lump sum buys 82% AV, in year five it buys 76% AV. If there is a shock year where the health care cost growth dramatically jumps up from a trend to a 20% spike, the beneficiaries are now left holding the bag as the federal subsidy might only now buy them 65% actuarial value coverage.

The only guarantee is that a calculated contribution which is indexed to shrink in relative buying power will be made. Individuals will be on the hook for an increasing share of actuarial value and they will bear the risk of unexpected spikes in healthcare costs (they also get any upside on unexpected drops in healthcare cost growth below nominal economic growth but that does not happen in the US often).

This is how I view the Medicare fight. And it is why I am not thrilled with the voucherization and privatization framing. A Medicare Advantage only program could credibly be called privatization. A voucher that allows people to have meaningful choice between multiple private plans at the same expected individual contribution that they currently pay now could be added to this program. It might be odd, it might be a hookers and blow looting expedition. As long as there is a guarantee that a minimal of 83% actuarial value is delivered, it would be an defined benefit program delivered by private entities.

The argument is whether or not Medicare (as well as subsidized Exchange and Medicaid) are defined benefit programs or defined contribution programs.

Everything else is a detail. Those details are worth fighting about but they are secondary to the core discussion.