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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Do we throw up our hands or do we roll up our sleeves? (hint, door #2)

People identifying as christian while ignoring christ and his teachings is a strange thing indeed.

I like political parties that aren’t owned by foreign adversaries.

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

Beware of advice from anyone for whom Democrats are “they” and not “we.”

Hey Washington Post, “Democracy Dies in Darkness” was supposed to be a warning, not a mission statement.

There are no moderate republicans – only extremists and cowards.

Anne Laurie is a fucking hero in so many ways. ~ Betty Cracker

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

Nothing worth doing is easy.

Shallow, uninformed, and lacking identity

I am pretty sure these ‘journalists’ were not always such a bootlicking sycophants.

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

I desperately hope that, yet again, i am wrong.

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

Weird. Rome has an American Pope and America has a Russian President.

We will not go quietly into the night; we will not vanish without a fight.

Come on, media. you have one job. start doing it.

Baby steps, because the Republican Party is full of angry babies.

Never give a known liar the benefit of the doubt.

This country desperately needs a functioning fourth estate.

Oh FFS you might as well trust a 6-year-old with a flamethrower.

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

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Open Thread (and Saturday Afternoon Ohio Meetup Reminder)

by WaterGirl|  May 14, 20259:17 am| 11 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Move over Florida, it looks like you might have some competition!
Saturday Afternoon Ohio Meetup Reminder... and Don't Forget Your Meth Pipe (???)

If you missed the previous posts about the Ohio meetup this Saturday, check out the two links in the sidebar for details.

It’s not too late to RSVP!

… and don’t forget your meth pipe (??)

Totally open thread.

Open Thread (and Saturday Afternoon Ohio Meetup Reminder)Post + Comments (11)

Wednesday Morning Open Thread: Summer Travel Season

by Anne Laurie|  May 14, 20256:53 am| 123 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Show Us on the Doll Where the Invisible Hand Touched You, Trump Crime Cartel

I mean it's truly an amazing line to be going with.

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— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 10:19 AM

Breaking: leaked audio proves Sean Duffy knows flying right now isn’t safe.

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— Keith Edwards (@keithedwards.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 8:44 PM

Maybe they'll transplant white South African air traffic controllers
links.message.bloomberg.com/s/c/PYOxJ5pA…

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— realworldrj.bsky.social (@realworldrj.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 12:32 PM

Sean Duffy will be out later to insist that Joe Biden set the work schedule before he left office.

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— Kevin M. Kruse (@kevinmkruse.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 7:30 AM

As Newark Liberty International Airport struggled with technological disruptions and staffing shortages, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warned on Sunday that more U.S. airports could face similar disruptions this summer.

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— The New York Times (@nytimes.com) May 11, 2025 at 3:53 PM

Surely, Sean Duffy can’t still be running around blaming Biden and Buttigieg again today. Let’s check …

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— Ron Filipkowski (@ronfilipkowski.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 4:10 PM

Trump once again being the biggest climate change president ever because he manages to completely destroy air traffic. ??

— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 10:20 AM

Wednesday Morning Open Thread: Summer Travel SeasonPost + Comments (123)

On The Road – frosty – 2024 National Park Road Trip – Canada (1/3) Banff

by WaterGirl|  May 14, 20255:00 am| 19 Comments

This post is in: On The Road, Photo Blogging

frosty

Banff is a ski resort and the town definitely has that look. Lots of restaurants, pubs, breweries, outfitters and coffee shops. And people!

On The Road - frosty - 2024 National Park Road Trip - Canada (1/3) Banff 6
Banff, AB

We were able to get a reservation in one of the National Park Campgrounds – Tunnel Mountain Village II. It’s got a unique layout – sites are nose to tail with a picnic table and electrical hookup to the side. It’s up the hill from the Town of Banff, so we visited the town a couple of times.

On The Road – frosty – 2024 National Park Road Trip – Canada (1/3) BanffPost + Comments (19)

War for Ukraine Day 1,174: More Drone Swarms in the Small Hours of the Night

by Adam L Silverman|  May 13, 20259:16 pm| 13 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A quick housekeeping note: It was a long and, frankly, quite brutally ugly day today. I already know I have at least one more of those tomorrow. So I’m just going to run through the basics tonight.

Air raid alerts are up for all of eastern, northern, southern, and central Ukraine except for Odesa, Kirovohrad, and the western  oblasts at 8:05 PM EDT/3:05 PM local time in Ukraine. These alerts are for drone swarms.

Earlier today the air raid alerts were for ballistic missiles:

Over half Ukraine on alert due to Russian ballistic missile launch threat. Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian cities in recent weeks have killed dozens & injured hundreds of civilians.

Russia is ignoring the Ukraine coalition’s ceasefire demands. What will the consequences be?

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 4:50 AM

The Russians also once again struck civilian targets in Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast:

Russia continues its ruthless attacks on civilians. Chaotic airstrikes on a village in Kharkiv’s Kupiansk district killed two people and injured seven more there and in nearby villages. The destruction is devastating.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 4:10 PM

Russia struck Kupyansk district of the Kharkiv region, killing two people, destroying their home, and injuring four others.

Russia kills people in the Kharkiv region every single day.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 1:05 PM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcripts after the jump.

show full post on front page

Ukraine Is Absolutely Ready for a Truly Effective Format of Talks – Address by the President

13 May 2025 – 20:03

Dear Ukrainians!

Emergency response operations are currently underway in Kharkiv after a Russian drone strike. Preliminary reports indicate that no one was harmed. This was another Russian strike on an energy facility – a purely civilian one. Russia is being Russia. While everybody awaits their response to a ceasefire and direct negotiations, they respond with new strikes and attacks. The only one dragging out the war, the only one responsible for both the start and the continuation of the war, is Russia. The entire world understands this clearly. Pressure is essential – pressure to make Moscow stop thinking that the world can still wait. An end to the war is needed – a dignified and just one. Russia talks a lot about direct negotiations, but when it comes down to it, they hide. Decisions must be made. And they must be made with the one who is truly in control of what happens next. Right now, our team is actively preparing for a visit to Türkiye. Today, we have presented Ukraine’s position to all our partners in detail. I want to thank them for their support. Every call for a long-lasting and unconditional ceasefire matters. Calls for direct negotiations at the highest level are equally important. Putin is the one who determines everything in Russia, so he is the one who has to resolve the war. This is his war. Therefore, the negotiations should be with him.

Today, I want to highlight the statement made by the leaders of the Nordic and Baltic countries – I want to thank them for their support, including for supporting negotiations. Overall, European leaders are making strong statements and taking decisive steps. I want to thank them for this once again. We also know, in particular, China’s stance regarding support for a ceasefire and negotiations. The United States is clearly and unambiguously saying that leaders must meet. Ukraine is absolutely ready for a truly effective format of talks.

Today, I received a report from the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine about his contacts with our partners and our corresponding plans. The Head of the Office of the President has been in negotiations practically all day. The Minister of Defense also delivered a report today – at his level, there is corresponding important communication as well. We are working to ensure Ukraine’s positions are strong and that diplomacy yields results.

The internal situation in Ukraine is equally important – everything needed for the resilience of our state and the well-being of our people. Today, there was a report from the Head of the State Tax Service, Mr. Kravchenko, on efforts to counter shadow schemes and ensure Ukraine’s financial stability. This is very important for our entire state. There have been good results. Despite the war and any diplomatic turbulence, all social payments in Ukraine are ensured. And this will continue.

I want to thank everyone who stands with Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

First Lady Zelenska had a meeting today with Andreas Schliecher, who is the Director for Education and Skills at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and Head of the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA).

President Zelenskyy also held a press conference about the potential for negotiations in Turkey at the end of the week:

Georgia:

Day 167. The moments of tonight’s gathering.

By now, everyone knows we won’t stop, and each protester represents thousands that would rush immediately in case of a minor incident.

This well end in new, free & fair Parliamentary elections. #GeorgiaProtests

📷 Khatuna Tsiklauri

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 3:24 PM

FIRST moments*

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 3:29 PM

Day 167 of #GeorgiaProtests

“Glory to heroes! Victory to Georgia! Victory to Ukraine! Down with Russia’s rotten Empire!”

📷 Giorgi Burjanadze

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 3:32 PM

1/ With its new bill, Georgian Dream is making it easier for the Constitutional Court to ban opposition parties.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 2:26 PM

2/ The Constitutional Court will have a nine-month deadline to review cases on party bans, however, the court will be able to dissolve a party within 14 days before an election if it deems its membership, goals, and activities identical to those of an already banned party.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 2:26 PM

3/ This change would allow Georgian Dream to follow through on its pre-election promise to ban all major pro-European opposition parties, which it refers to as “satellites of the UNM.”

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 2:26 PM

4/ Earlier, party leader Mamuka Mdinaradze said the final report from the investigative commission in Parliament would provide a strong basis for declaring these parties unconstitutional.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 2:26 PM

This morning, regime PM Kobakhidze published an open letter of utter desperation to President Trump and VP Vance.

It’s full of lies, but I’ll distinguish two points:

1. He says that by 🇬🇪 participation in Iraq and Afghanistan, 🇬🇪 saved the US more money than the US has contributed to Georgia 1/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:47 AM

(and then lists various important exceptions that in total still amount to a greater US assistance). The Georgian Dream despised Georgia’s participation in Iraq and Afghanistan, considered it a futile sacrifice and even campaigned to withdraw the country from the missions. 2/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:47 AM

It’s the previous government and, first and foremost, the people of Georgia who contributed, and the US keeps its allyship with the people of Georgia.

2. Journalists asked illegitimate GD MPs what they thought of the letter, and one of them, 3/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:47 AM

Nikoloz Samkharadze, stated that external legitimacy doesn’t matter; it’s internal public legitimacy that matters, including that from journalists (GD representatives are so desperate for any semblance of legitimacy that they like to portray that 4/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:47 AM

journalists asking them questions within the walls of the Parliaments means the journalists admit their legitimacy).

Things might not be unfolding as fast as people hoped, but it’s still going in the right direction. 5/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:47 AM

If we keep the pressure of protests and non-engagement at home, and the subsequently derived international pressure, the Georgian Dream will have ever-deepening trouble. 6/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:47 AM

This means that we as the opposition should not give them a helping hand in their time of distress – and we should deprive them of legitimacy by not taking part in the local elections in October. 7/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:47 AM

Otherwise, they’ll check the internal legitimacy box, the opposition will not be able to call a foul post factum, or gain any public sympathy whatsoever, and the regime will try to start the process of internal and external normalization. 8/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:47 AM

Keep it up. And Georgians, keep pressure in terms of non-participation in the local elections.

I’ll share the full text of that letter once available in English. 9/9.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:47 AM

‪Oh, here it is. civil.ge/archives/680…

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:51 AM

“TV Pirveli” journalist Mariam Makasarashvili sustained a concussion after she and cameraman Nukri Kapiashvili were attacked by the father of Giorgi Shinjikashvili, Kvemo Kartli’s First Deputy Governor, while asking about his resignation.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 3:22 AM

Germany:

Thanks to Scholz, Taurus has become a symbol of Germany’s vulnerability to nuclear coercion. If Merz fails to deliver the weapon system after the ultimatum expires, he too forfeits his credibility. I’d be cautiously optimistic that his advisors and he himself are aware of that.

1/2

— Fabian Hoffmann (@frhoffmann.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 1:08 PM

That said, it’s important to remember that Scholz’s delaying tactics mean the Taurus still needs to be integrated and Ukrainian personnel trained.

Three months is an optimistic estimate; four to six is more realistic. So, in any case, Taurus will not be operational in Ukraine anytime soon.

2/2

— Fabian Hoffmann (@frhoffmann.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 1:08 PM

Also, there is a chance that Taurus won’t be delivered because a US veto.

ITAR restricitons apply to Taurus deliveries, unfortunately, due to the integrated US-origin turbofan engine and GPS seeker.

— Fabian Hoffmann (@frhoffmann.bsky.social) May 12, 2025 at 1:12 PM

German Taurus were backfitted with the American GPS receivers upon midlife upgrade and brought to the South Korean standard. Those are the 300 that received the MLU. The other 300 are currently not equipped with an American GPS receiver (until their upgrade is completed).

— Fabian Hoffmann (@frhoffmann.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 9:18 AM

But I could have been clearer on this.

This being said, the engine has always been American in origin, so ITAR restrictions would have applied regardless of whether Germany wanted to deliver midlife upgraded or original versions.

— Fabian Hoffmann (@frhoffmann.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 9:19 AM

I was not concerned under Biden regarding an American veto, given that he has stated that he has no issue with allies delivering long-range strike weapons.

I’m not so sure under Trump. Depends on his mood and how long is last phone call with Putin is in the past.

— Fabian Hoffmann (@frhoffmann.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 9:21 AM

The US:

“It could be 10-15 years — that’s the sort of timeline we talk about.”

Why Trump’s Ukraine resources deal will take a decade to produce results www.ft.com/content/cccc… via @financialtimes.com

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— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) May 13, 2025 at 1:27 AM

From The Financial Times:

The resources deal that Donald Trump has struck with Ukraine will not yield mining production for at least a decade and require huge private sector investment to get projects off the ground.

That is how companies and industry veterans view the agreement, ratified by Kyiv’s parliament on Thursday, which aims to lift investment in the Ukrainian mining and energy sectors and create a joint “reconstruction investment fund” from the proceeds of future projects.

“It could be 10-15 years — that’s the sort of timeline we talk about,” said Eric Rasmussen, former head of natural resources at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

Peter Bryant, chair of mining advisory group Clareo, said the accord “does little to de-risk the supply chain in the next 10 years, as it will take at least that long to discover and develop mines” in the eastern European country.

Ukraine’s commercial natural resources include iron ore, coal, lithium, graphite and titanium-bearing ores. It is also Europe’s third-largest gas producer. Future oil and gas developments will be included in the resources deal, and could be quicker to develop than mining projects, observers said.

Yet big obstacles, including Russia’s continuing war on Ukraine, patchy geological data, severely damaged infrastructure and the potential for corruption — on top of the ordinary challenges to set up any new resources project — mean it could be 2040 before mines developed under the deal are producing minerals.

Yulia Svyrydenko, a Ukrainian minister and signatory to the deal, told reporters on Thursday that the fund itself would be operational “within a few weeks”.

However, several steps remain before there can be tangible results, with years of geological exploration required before a feasibility study is produced and a project begins raising money for development.

The US-Ukraine reconstruction investment fund only covers new projects, so existing sites such as the iron ore mines operated by the FTSE 250 Ukrainian miner Ferrexpo and the iron ore prospect developed by Toronto-listed Black Iron would not be covered.

Even Ukrainian officials acknowledge there would be a long wait before the fund starts distributing profits.

“We expect that for the first 10 years, fund profits and revenues will not be distributed, but instead reinvested into Ukraine — into new projects or reconstruction,” Svyrydenko said on X on the day that the deal was signed.

One further obstacle is access to the Soviet-era geological survey data that maps Ukraine’s mineral wealth, much of which is classified due to the war. Experts also point out that, given Ukraine’s long history of mining, the best deposits may have already been exploited.

“This romantic idea that there’s lakes of lithium to be tapped is just not the case,” said a mining executive operating in the country, adding that the US-Ukraine deal was “not going to move any needles” in the next decade.

Hugo Corden-Lloyd, senior associate at the Risk Advisory Group, was another to note the “myriad” risk for companies. These ranged from “your usual corruption and bribery issues to physical security. Will mining companies have to cover the cost of clearing land of any unexploded ordnance?”

For Jim North, former chief executive of Ferrexpo, “the big question is: ‘What does a ceasefire look like?’”

Russian retention of the Ukrainian land it occupies, which includes significant coal mines and some lithium resources, would reduce Ukraine’s opportunities.

More at the link.

As I’ve written before there is no deal here. Yes, there’s documents with signatures, but on the US side this isn’t being submitted to the Senate to ratify, which means it isn’t binding on the US the way a ratified treaty would be. It’s just like the JCPOA was, which didn’t survive the change in administration from Obama to Trump. When you add in all the complications detailed in the reporting, as well as the fact that there’s an existing agreement between Ukraine and the EU member states for access to these resources, and there’s no there there. This is vaporware that the Ukrainians agreed to so the President could claim he made a deal to the benefit of the US. There’s more here than whatever that mess with the Brits that was announced last week is, but not by much.

According to Clash Report, Trump will not travel to Istanbul for the negotiations.

Instead, the U.S. President will send his special representatives, Witkoff and Kellogg.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 8:24 AM

Who could’ve possibly predicted?

Back to Ukraine.

Delighted to see our portfolio of investigations on Russia’s war in Ukraine shortlisted for @gijn.org Sigma Awards. The revelations contribute to mounting evidence of war crimes and show what can be achieved when forensic reporting is combined with visual storytelling.

gijn.org/stories/sigm…

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— Sam Joiner (@samjoiner.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 9:09 AM

In a groundbreaking investigation, we used facial recognition software to identify Ukrainian children given false Russian identities and listed for adoption.

@alisonkilling.bsky.social @christopherjm.ft.com @peter.andringa.me @digitalcampbell.ft.com @samlearner.bsky.social
on.ft.com/433Mpgw

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— Sam Joiner (@samjoiner.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 9:09 AM

Inside Mariupol: Russia’s new Potemkin village exposed appalling conditions endured by locals under occupation — and the oligarchs profiting from the sham rebuild.

@alisonkilling.bsky.social Polina Ivanova @peter.andringa.me @digitalcampbell.ft.com @carolinenevitt.bsky.social

ig.ft.com/mariupol/

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— Sam Joiner (@samjoiner.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 9:09 AM

Our harrowing report on life in Kherson exposed an unprecedented Russian military strategy: the systematic use of drones to terrorise and depopulate a city.

@christopherjm.ft.com @inari-ta.bsky.social

on.ft.com/3SF3h8x

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— Sam Joiner (@samjoiner.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 9:09 AM

Ukraine wants peace more than anyone. We accepted an unconditional ceasefire two months ago and remain ready for direct talks at the highest level in Istanbul.

Russia does not want peace. Every day this war continues solely because they keep attacking,

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 7:25 AM

searching for excuses to reject the ceasefire, and now refusing to attend the very peace talks they proposed.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 7:25 AM

Putin’s refusal to join Istanbul talks would be ‘last signal’ Russia doesn’t want peace, Zelensky’s chief of staff says #Ukraine

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— AmplifyUkraine 🔱🇺🇦 (@amplifyukraine.eu) May 13, 2025 at 9:25 AM

From The Kyiv Independent:

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s potential refusal to attend peace talks with President Volodymyr Zelensky in Istanbul would be the “last signal” that Russia is not willing to end the war in Ukraine, Presidential Office chief Andriy Yermak said on May 13.

Zelensky invited Putin to meet in Turkey on May 15 to launch the first direct negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow since 2022, though the Kremlin has not revealed whether the Russian leader would attend.

“Up until now, we have not received an answer or confirmation that President Putin will be in Turkey. But President Zelensky of Ukraine is ready and will go,” Yermak said in a keynote discussion at the Copenhagen Democracy Summit, in comments reported by Politico.

Yermak said Ukraine is “ready to discuss anything,” but “only if a ceasefire is achieved.”

“We’re ready to discuss any options that are on the table. There are many interesting and very strong options. The strongest guarantee is Ukraine’s prepared and trained military force, and our partners exactly understand what we need to prevent such a terrible war from happening again,” he said.

Yermak added that if Putin does not come to Turkey, it will be “the last signal” that Russia “does not want to end the war and is not ready for any negotiations.”

Ukraine and its European allies have urged an unconditional ceasefire starting on May 12 as the first step toward peace. Russia has ignored this proposal, continuing its attacks on Ukraine.

Asked by the Kyiv Independent whether Zelensky plans to make the trip even if Russia does not support the truce or if Putin declines to attend, a source close to the president said, “We are ready for all options. But of course, we are separately waiting for a response on the ceasefire.”

The last face-to-face meeting between Putin and Zelensky took place in 2019 in Paris during a Normandy Format summit. Since then, there have been no direct in-person meetings between the two leaders.

Ukraine and Russia have not held direct peace talks since the unsuccessful negotiations in Istanbul in 2022.

Russian Buk-M3 air defense units (the one Russia used to shoot down MH17 over eastern Ukraine in July 2014) tend to explode in a very satisfying manner. Here’s one being destroyed by a US Switchblade 600 loitering munition. It is planned to localize Switchblade production in Ukraine.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:14 AM

Very interesting exclusive footage shared by 14th UAS with @Teoyaomiquu.bsky.social shows a mass launch of Ukrainian long-range ‘Chaklun’ kamikaze drones from dedicated launchers targeting Russian positions.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 12:33 PM

UA 2S22 vs 2 RU D-30.

May. 2025. We still use artillery vs artillery. And I fucking love it.

Community, we again need your help with Avenger antennas for drones. The price is 4 000$. Support, please🔽

WFP: secure.wayforpay.com/donate/Krieg…

PP: [email protected]

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— kriegsforscher.bsky.social (@kriegsforscher.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 11:25 AM

I am definitely not the best film editor but we have our personal record:

– 2 D-30 with the help of artillery are taken out;
– 1 D-30 with the help of FPV;
– 1 2A36 with the help of FPV.

— kriegsforscher.bsky.social (@kriegsforscher.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 11:31 AM

Not really sure where Kriegsforscher and his unit are fighting right now.

An airstrike by a MiG-29 on Russian frontline positions. Two incoming bombs aren’t clearly visible, but they appear to be AASM Hammers. t.me/soniah_hub/1…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 8:51 AM

Kharkiv:

Explosion in Kharkiv ‼️ russian drone struck the downtown.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 9:11 AM

Explosion in Kharkiv ‼️ russian drones again. It’s the second attack today.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 10:19 AM

Russian occupied Crimea and southwestern Russia:

First Ukrainian drone attack since “Putin’s Parade Paranoia” “ceasefire” on May 8: Ukrainian drones heading for Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Crimea and SW Russia. Map from t.me/dronbomber

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 5:26 PM

The Pokrovsk direction:

Construction of Ukrainian anti-infantry defense lines made of barbed wire on the Pokrovsky Front. More and more such anti infantry fortifications are appearing.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 11:05 AM

The Kursk cross border offensive:

Air strike on Russian river crossing somewhere in the Kursk region filmed by Russians.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 4:38 AM

Destruction of the Russian Uragan-1 MLRS on the BAZ chassis Kursk region. First, the strike was carried out by a FPV drone, then HIMARS arrived.

This is only the second confirmation of the loss of the Russian Uragan-1 on the BAZ chassis. (51.4554722, 34.5064444) t.me/ukr_sof/1622

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 3:52 AM

The Lyman front:

Ukrainian soldiers of the 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade of the AFU “Steel Lions,” captured a citizen of Uzbekistan on the Lyman front.

Umit (his name) joined an assault, got hit, got lost, and ended up at the positions of the Ukrainian brigade.
t.me/c/1377735387…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 11:43 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,174: More Drone Swarms in the Small Hours of the NightPost + Comments (13)

Tuesday Evening Open Thread

by Anne Laurie|  May 13, 20256:40 pm| 138 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Chuck Schumer has put a "hold" on all of Trump's DOJ nominees over Trump accepting a gift of a $400 million luxury jet from Qatar to use as Air Force One.
“This is not just naked corruption, it is also a grave national security threat.” www.huffpost.com/entry/chuck-…

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— Jen Bendery (@jbendery.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 1:56 PM

\

Schumer’s “hold’ on Trump’s DOJ picks won’t stop their confirmations, but it will delay action on them — and eat into valuable Senate floor time.

Among those now subject to delays: DEA nominee Terry Cole, U.S. Marshals nominee Gadyaces Serralta, Asst AG nominees John Eisenberg and Brett Shumate.

Across the Capitol building, Hakeem Jeffries called Trump’s $400 million luxury jet gift from Qatar “an embarrassment” and more importantly, unconstitutional.

He noted the foreign emoluments clause bars federal officials from accepting gifts from foreign states without congressional sign-off.

"Millions of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck," Jeffries said, while Trump is out here "publicly defending a $400 million ‘flying palace’ from a close ally of Iran and Hamas.”

“I mean, you can’t make this stuff up." www.huffpost.com/entry/chuck-…

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— Jen Bendery (@jbendery.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 4:19 PM

KKKlownshw:

Prior to his departure to the Middle East, DJT hosted an Arabian Nights party at Mar-a-Lago

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— Olga Nesterova (@onestpress.onestnetwork.com) May 13, 2025 at 12:17 PM

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Trump landed in Saudi Arabia this morning, his first stop in a four-day tour of the Gulf. He’s told advisers that he wants to sign deals worth more than $1 trillion on the trip.

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— Olga Nesterova (@onestpress.onestnetwork.com) May 13, 2025 at 9:29 AM

Trump goes ahead and salutes every single Saudi official at the Royal Court in Riyadh

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— Olga Nesterova (@onestpress.onestnetwork.com) May 13, 2025 at 10:02 AM

As part of the red-carpet treatment, Saudi officials arranged for a fully operational mobile McDonald’s unit to accompany President Trump during his stay.
According to local reports, the unit was set up near the Saudi Royal Court.

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— Olga Nesterova (@onestpress.onestnetwork.com) May 13, 2025 at 9:34 AM

Tuesday Evening Open ThreadPost + Comments (138)

News of the Weird Open Thread

by Anne Laurie|  May 13, 20253:29 pm| 154 Comments

This post is in: Grifters Gonna Grift, Open Threads


Anduril founder Palmer Luckey says the US should “expand our naval base on Guantanamo Bay into Liberty City [ie, a ‘freedom city’], an American Singapore of the Caribbean.” Anduril is backed by Tech Bros Peter Thiel & Marc Andreessen who support aspiring “network states” via Pronomos Capital. 1/

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— Jenny Cohn (@jennycohn.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 1:26 PM

I still have a Make Something happy – kiss an orc today button from a 1970 NYC street fair, but sometimes I wish Tolkien came with an ‘adult content’ warning.

2/ Link for post 1. x.com/palmerluckey…

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— Jenny Cohn (@jennycohn.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 1:27 PM

3/ Palmer Luckey’s tweet elicited this reply from the Charter Cities Institute, which promotes the idea of so-called “freedom cities.” x.com/ccidotcity/s…

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— Jenny Cohn (@jennycohn.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 1:29 PM

4/ chartercitiesinstitute.org/research/gua…

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— Jenny Cohn (@jennycohn.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 1:30 PM

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5/ As I said, Anduril is backed by Thiel and Andreessen. bsky.app/profile/jenn…

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— Jenny Cohn (@jennycohn.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 1:31 PM

***********

Bonus:

34/ Related thread. They want the Presidio too. bsky.app/profile/jenn…

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— Jenny Cohn (@jennycohn.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 10:50 PM

35/ bsky.app/profile/jenn…

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— Jenny Cohn (@jennycohn.bsky.social) May 11, 2025 at 10:53 PM

News of the Weird Open ThreadPost + Comments (154)

Uncertainty, clawback and low income insurance in the Ways and Means bill

by David Anderson|  May 13, 202510:52 am| 31 Comments

This post is in: 2025 Activism, Anderson On Health Insurance

The House Ways and Means reconciliation draft is out. There are a lot of things that can be said, few kind. I want to highlight one section about the ACA that leapt off the page for me.

Sec. 112203. Eliminating limitation on recapture of advance payment of premium tax credit. Current Law: Under current law, there is a limit on the amount of excess premium tax credit certain individuals must repay if they misestimate their projected income and benefit from a more generous advance payment of the tax credit than they qualified for. Provision: This provision removes the repayment limits and requires affected individuals to reimburse the IRS for the full amount of excess tax credit received.

This is a wow of a provision. The consequence of this provision is that it will impose a massive uncertainty tax on low income enrollees who are likely legally eligible for coverage. Under current law, people who get too much in premium tax credits will have differential but capped exposure to paying some of it back. Low income enrollees whose actual income is below 100% FPL don’t have to pay anything back as long as the income estimate was made in good faith. This proposal would get rid of that safe harbor.

The ACA relies on projection of future income. In states without Medicaid Expansion, there is a hard cliff on assistance. If an individual earns over 100% Federal Poverty Level (FPL) they are entitled to premium tax credits to reduce their ACA premiums. If not, they are highly unlikely to be eligible for Medicaid, and would be expected to pay full premium for an ACA plan. That basically means a 50 to 80 FPL point gap in coverage for parents and 100 FPL point coverage gap for non-parent adults.

Right now, people make a projection of their income for the following year in November or December when they purchase insurance. 100% FPL for a single individual is $15,650 in the contiguous United States for 2025. That translates to full time work (2080 annual hours paid) at $7.52 an hour.

It is entirely reasonable for someone who is making $8 an hour and working full time (2000 hours/year) to project that they are going to make $16,000 (103% FPL) for the following year. This makes them eligible for substantial premium tax credits and cost-sharing reduction subsidies. In Columbia County, South Carolina, a single 40 year old would likely be eligible for roughly $5500-5800 in premium tax credits (in 2025, 5800, in 2026 with old subsidy schedule about 5500).

Great!

Now let’s imagine two scenarios.

They get a $1 an hour raise. Their income is now 115% FPL. They report it as required, and their premium tax credits either don’t change in 2025, or slightly decrease in 2026. This is FINE!

Now the other scenario is they are still making $8 an hour but the store decides on March 31st that the Tuesday morning shift is not needed, so they are only working 36 hours per week for the rest of the year. They work 1850 hours for the year. This is still full time work. They make $14,800 for the year. Under current law and policy, that is fine. It was a good faith estimate that was wrong and bad luck accrues to the government.

Under this proposal, that individual is now no longer eligible for premium tax credits and would need to pay back every dollar. They could incur a 30% to 40% of their income surprise tax bill due to bad luck.

Would you take this risk?

I wouldn’t.

I would, even if I can make a legitimate good faith estimate that my income will be over the 100% line by a bit, stay the hell away from shocks and surprises like this, especially if there are other provisions that deny me access to needed benefits if I am in tax debt to the IRS.

Uncertainty, clawback and low income insurance in the Ways and Means billPost + Comments (31)

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