Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Republicans do not pay their debts.

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

Ron DeSantis, the grand wizard, oops, governor of FL.

They think we are photo bombing their nice little lives.

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

Many life forms that would benefit from greater intelligence, sadly, do not have it.

Joe Biden can go out like FDR, not by dying in office, but by crushing the fascists.

I’m sure you banged some questionable people yourself. We’re allowed to grow past that.

Thanks to your bullshit, we are now under siege.

if you can’t see it, then you are useless in the fight to stop it.

We need to vote them all out and restore sane Democratic government.

Motto for the House: Flip 5 and lose none.

We’ll be taking my thoughts and prayers to the ballot box.

Nancy smash is sick of your bullshit.

Glad to see john eastman going through some things.

There are no moderate republicans – only extremists and cowards.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

Second rate reporter says what?

This really is a full service blog.

You cannot shame the shameless.

Marge, god is saying you’re stupid.

I was promised a recession.

Let there be snark.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 734: Ukraine Splashes Another Pair of SU-34s

War for Ukraine Day 734: Ukraine Splashes Another Pair of SU-34s

by | 31 Comments

This post is in: , , , , , , , , ,

Two quick related notes. First, today was a very long day – not bad, just long – and I’ve got another one tomorrow. So tonight’s update will be on the briefer side. Second, this is why I’m unlikely to get to the NY Times HUR-CIA reporting until Thursday. The same with the Meduza reporting regarding Navalny being extra-judicially executed to derail a prisoner exchange negotiation.

Have I mentioned that Speaker Johnson sent the House of Representatives home on vacation through tomorrow and the government will begin to shutdown on Friday?

Ukraine downed two more SU-34s today:

The Kyiv Post has details:

Ukraine’s Armed Forces (AFU) have brought down another Russian Su-34 fighter bomber, the eighth Russian frontline aircraft recently shot down.

The two-man crew managed to eject, according to the Air Force’s Commander.

“Minus another Su-34 in the eastern direction! Yesterday, Russian pilots managed to dodge our missiles, but this will not always be the case!” Ukrainian Air Force commander Mykola Oleshchuk reported in a Telegram post.

“I advise the invaders to see their relatives before each flight. Because who knows if he’ll be lucky or not this time,” he added.

The Sukhoi Su-34 (NATO: Fullback) is Russia’s premier frontline fighter bomber, designed primarily for launching laser-guided bombs or long-range guided missiles in precision strikes on ground targets.

The Su-34 is equipped with a radar that also enables it to employ modern Russian air-to-air missiles.

With a price tag of around $36 million each, the Su-34 is one of the Russian military’s most expensive aircraft.

According to Ukraine’s General Staff, from Feb. 24, 2022 to Feb. 21, 2024 Ukrainian forces have destroyed 339 fixed wing aircraft and 325 helicopters belonging to the Russians.

In a significant series of blows against Russian forces’ aircraft, on Wednesday, Feb. 21, the AFU downed another Russian Su-34 fighter bomber.

Prior to that, on Monday, Feb. 19, the UAF shot down two more aircraft, a Su-34 and a Su-35 multi-role fighter.

Today, President Zelenskyy addressed the International Platform for the Release of Civilians Illegally Detained by the Russian Federation. The video is below. There is no posted English transcript, but I do have close captioning in English turned on for the video.

He also had a bilateral meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Muhammed bin Salman:

Germany:

Our fight continues.
Our friends continue to support us.
A new package of German military aid includes:
◾️4 Wisent 1 mine clearing tanks
◾️3 mine clearing systems
◾️14,000 rounds 155mm ammunition
◾️10 Vector reconnaissance drones
◾️22 anti-drone sensors and jammers
◾️12 SatCom terminals
◾️4 border protection vehicles
◾️Material for explosive ordnance disposal
◾️250 tool kits with blasting material

Thank you for your unwavering support!
Vielen Dank!
🇺🇦🤝🇩🇪
#StandWithUkraine
@BMVg_Bundeswehr

Also, Germany:

The Financial Times has the story:

Germany’s deputy chancellor said there was “no chance” of sending ground troops to Ukraine and, in a rebuff to France, told Paris it should instead supply Kyiv with more weapons.

Robert Habeck rejected French President Emmanuel Macron’s suggestion that a western troop deployment to Ukraine should not be ruled out, as Nato leaders also rounded on the idea.

“I’m pleased that France is thinking about how to increase its support for Ukraine, but if I could give it a word of advice — supply more weapons,” Habeck said on Tuesday.

The Franco-German spat came as western powers hunt for ways to increase support for Kyiv, which is running short of ammunition, while avoiding a wider escalation in the war with Russia.

Moscow warned on Tuesday that deploying troops would make a full-scale war against Nato inevitable.

Asked whether German troops could be sent to Ukraine, Habeck said “there is no chance of that” and called on France to “do what you can now and give Ukraine the munitions and the tanks that can be supplied now”.

Macron made his suggestion at a meeting of European leaders in Paris on Monday where he said the option of sending western troops to Ukraine had been discussed.

While acknowledging that the summit had not reached consensus “for sending in ground troops, in an official and declared way”, the French president added: “Nothing should be excluded. We will do whatever it takes to ensure that Russia cannot win this war.”

But German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said western powers had agreed “that there would be no ground troops on Ukrainian soil, no soldiers sent there from European states or Nato states”, comments that were echoed by his counterparts in Poland, Italy and the Czech Republic.

Germany is by far Europe’s biggest provider of military support to Ukraine and has long been critical of France’s more modest contribution, despite the two countries’ similar-sized defence budgets.

France said it did not keep large stockpiles of old weapons that it could offload to Ukraine and has instead supplied more sophisticated arms, notably its Scalp cruise missile.

A Nato official said there were no plans for the alliance to put combat troops on the ground: “Ukraine has the right to self-defence, and we have the right to support them.”

But a senior European defence official said Macron’s statement was about creating deterrence and ambiguity towards Russia, adding: “Everyone knows there are western special forces in Ukraine — they’ve just not acknowledged it officially.”

French officials maintained that Macron was not suggesting western troops should be sent en masse to the front lines, but that it was no longer a taboo to rule out involvement.

They also said western troops could potentially be involved through limited missions such as demining, maintaining and repairing weapons systems, or helping to secure the borders of other countries threatened by Russia, such as Moldova.

A voice of support for Macron came from Lithuania, where an adviser to the country’s president said the government was “openly” discussing whether to send troops to help train soldiers in Ukraine.

Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis added: “Times like these require political leadership, ambition and courage to think out of the box. The initiative behind the Paris meeting yesterday is well worth considering.”

But Dmitry Peskov, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, told reporters that if Nato sent troops to fight in Ukraine, war with the alliance “wouldn’t be likely, but inevitable”.

Worries about the risks of escalation with Russia are at the heart of a domestic dispute in Germany over whether to send long-range precision Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

Ukraine has said it urgently needs long-range weapons to try to degrade Russia’s military logistics and buy urgently needed time.

But Scholz said on Monday that his country might find itself “a participant in the war” if it sent the Taurus missiles. He added: “German soldiers must at no point and in no place be linked to targets this system reaches” — either in Ukraine or Germany itself.

In a thinly veiled barb at Berlin on Monday night, Macron said some allies kept saying “never” to tanks, fighter jets and long-range missiles for Ukraine and had merely offered to send “sleeping bags and helmets” at the onset of the full-blown war two years ago.

“Today, [we all realise that] we have to do more, faster and harder, to send missiles and tanks,” the French president said.

The simple fact is that French President Macron, like Lithuanian Foreign Minister Landsbergis, is correct:

As is Danish PM Frederiksen:

I’ve read every NATO member states’ unclassified 2024 strategic assessment that has been published so far. I’ve posted two or three here. Every single one of them precedes from the same strategic premise: that Russia is going to attack within the next several years regardless of what happens with Ukraine. And, therefore, it is better to do what is necessary right now to ensure Ukraine wins a resounding victory and Russia is completely and utterly defeated. The problem of course is that the EU and NATO member states don’t have the Schlitz or can’t get their acts together to produce the Schlitz. And, of course, thanks to GOP dysfunction in the House, the US has decided we’re just not going to make Schlitz for export. Or for the border. But they’re going to complain about the fact that we’re not going to produce it while also preventing us from doing so. Lincoln had them, in his remarks about their ideological forebears, dead to rights in his Cooper Union address:

Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events.

One important point: if you announce that your announcing a strategic ambiguity, you’ve just done the opposite of establishing a strategic ambiguity.

Israel:

Extraordinary!

Israel’s ambassador to the UN, Gilad Erdan, delivered a speech in which he totally torched Russia. He not only announced that Israel is going to provide an early warning systems against missiles for Ukraine but also called Ukraine an “ally”. He also equates Russia with Hamas and attacks Russia for hosting another visit of Hamas in Moscow.

You can be sure that this speech comes in coordination with the Israeli Prime Minister. It clearly marks the end of the relationship between Putin and Netanyahu. This whole instance reminds when Amir Weitmann delivered his viral statement in RussiaToday where he announced that “Russia is going to pay the price” (check out the repost). I think we are witnessing what this means.

Israel’s pro-Ukraine position will also have ramifications in the US and the ongoing discussion for military aid.

Source of video: https://youtube.com/watch?v=F5oIatX-3QI

Here’s the YouTube:

I’m surprised by this.

Tatarigami provides a grim assessment of the post-Avdiivka tactical reality:

When assessing the state of prepared fortifications post-Avdiivka and other key areas that might become frontlines this year, “disappointing” is probably the best description. The defenses are not as nearly good as the ones the Russians have built.

Solid strategic fortifications require joint efforts of the General Staff, Ministry of Defense, and civilian government — it cannot be accomplished solely with the resources of exhausted brigades or individual battalions!

Especially in light of this new reporting regarding Russia sourcing weapons from North Korea:

🇺🇦🇷🇺🇰🇵 North Korea may have supplied Russia with up to 3 million 152mm artillery shells

South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik announced at a media briefing that North Korea had shipped Russia approx 6,700 containers, which could hold up to 3 million 152mm shells.

Some North Korean factories which are producing for Russia are operating at full capacity, suggesting that supplies will continue to flow.

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20240227002800315

From Yonhap English:

SEOUL, Feb. 27 (Yonhap) — North Korean munitions factories are operating at full capacity to supply weapons to Russia in exchange for much-needed food and other necessities, South Korea’s defense chief has said.

Defense Minister Shin Won-sik made the assessment as concerns have heightened about North Korea’s alleged arms supply to Russia for its war in Ukraine while the war-torn nation is facing shortages of munitions due to delayed Western military aid.

“While North Korea’s arms factories operate at 30 percent capacity due to shortages of raw materials and power, certain factories are operating at full capacity, which primarily produce weapons and shells for Russia,” Shin said in a meeting with reporters Monday.

North Korea is estimated to have shipped around 6,700 containers to Russia since the summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian leader Vladimir Putin in September, he said. The amount is enough to accommodate approximately 3 million rounds of 152 mm artillery shells or 500,000 of 122 mm artillery shells.

In return for supplying weapons to Russia, Shin said North Korea appears to be receiving food and other necessities, as well as raw materials and parts used in weapons manufacturing.

The volume of containers from Russia to North Korea is presumed to be approximately 30 percent larger than those shipped from North Korea to Russia over the period, he noted.

“It seems that food accounts for the largest proportion (of shipments from Russia), which is believed to have stabilized food prices in North Korea, with other necessities also included,” Shin said.

The minister said Moscow is also likely to have provided satellite-related technology to Pyongyang as the country put its first spy satellite into orbit in November and vowed to launch three more this year.

Although the spy satellite has been orbiting the Earth, Shin expressed skepticism about the North’s claim that the satellite is capable of photographing major South Korean and U.S. military sites.

“It shows no signs of functioning and is merely orbiting without activity,” he said.

If Russia’s dependence on North Korean munitions and weapons grows, Shin anticipated the extent of Russia’s military technology assistance is likely to broaden in the future.

“It remains uncertain to what degree Russia will offer technology related to aircraft and ground equipment sought by North Korea. However, if Russia continues to receive more munitions from North Korea, the scope of technology transfer could increase,” he said.

Novomykhailivka:

Russian occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

 

For you anti-drone enthusiasts:

This was fun to watch, but this is not a sustainable way to do anti-drone air defense. It uses up too much .50 caliber ammo that isn’t being resupplied right now.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight. So here is some adjacent material from the Ukrainian MOD.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

31Comments

  1. 1.

    Gin & Tonic

    International Platform for the Release of Civilians Illegally Detained

    The text on the blue screen behind Z actually says “International Platform for the Release of Civilians Illegally Detained by the Russian Federation.”

  3. 3.

    Gin & Tonic

    From the post, the “consensus”(?) view:

    Macron says out loud what we have heard privately for weeks now: Nato member states are openly discussing a possible Russian attack on their territory https://t.co/lNxLKZh5qg
    — Henry Foy (@HenryJFoy) February 27, 2024

    The other view:

    Acting like Putin’s first move on NATO will be tanks across the border is a strawman. His war on NATO started long ago and his tactics haven’t changed. Weaponize the liberties of the free world against it using the media, political corruption, election interference, refugees.
    — Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) February 26, 2024

  7. 7.

    hrprogressive

    So, are we on an “inevitable” path to the global world war being waged by Russia for the last 10-15 years becoming a kinetic “capital letters” World War?

    Based on everything else you’ve ever written here, I don’t see how we aren’t.

    Unless, suddenly, magically, everyone in the West just decides to give Ukraine everything, like, tomorrow, and they beat Russia back so bad they change their tune.

    Can’t say I see that happening, and I don’t know what a third path looks like.

  8. 8.

    dr. luba

    From my cousin in Kyiv today:

    We are alive. We are working. We have air raids, but no cruise or ballistic missiles. Yes, sometimes an attack drone flies in. It is shot down. But it doesn’t carry a lot of explosives, about 50 kg. Compared to a 500 kg missile, it’s not much. But it still makes a lot of noise.

    We are all familiar with the types of rockets that are launched from the ground and from airplanes. Which rockets are launched from one type of aircraft and which from another. The amount of explosives in different types of rockets. We already know from these explosions whether it is an air defense system firing or a missile hitting the ground. We know what kind of explosion occurs when a missile is shot down in the air.

    The worst thing is the ballistic missiles. 2 minutes to approach. Not enough time to hide. How many times have we woken up at night from explosions, and then the warning signal went off?

    Everyone has the warning program on their phones…….

  10. 10.

    Jay

    One of the Polish railroad operator’s has identified 8 of the terrorists who dumped the corn shipment. They have hit them with civil liability notices for $100k each and filed criminal charges with the Police. They have also done the same to 6 men who blocked a rail line.

  12. 12.

    Anoniminous

    Russians have seized the initiative and forced Ukraine into Positional Battle an Operational Situation playing to Russian strengths and Ukrainian weakness.  Russians are using the Bite-and-Hold tactic which is expensive in both men and material but suitable for untrained cannon fodder, second rate artillery, and a Commander-in-Chief willing to spend the blood and treasure.

  13. 13.

    Traveller

    Let me just have a quick moment here…I would like to than Another Scott, Bill Arnold, Gin and Tonic of course, YY_Sima Qian…Everyone really, but these people have informed me greatly! So Thanks be owed. ​

  14. 14.

    Rich2506

    Hmm, Macron suggests, along with everyone’s strategic studies, that the world war that began in a non-kinetic fashion, is arriving anyway, so France might as well send troops to Ukraine.
    My question is, can we blame this all on Speaker Johnson? Can we say that because Johnson has slacked off on supplying Ukraine. “Hey, we’d prefer not to open up a war with Russia, but because Speaker Johnson was slacking off, he left us with no choice!”

  16. 16.

    Subsole

    @hrprogressive:

    The issue there is, I don’t see how Russia changes its tune without just falling apart at the seams.

    Beating Russia means Russia collapses into some sort of international humanitarian disaster. The waves of which will spill over into surrounding areas. Think of Syria. Then magnify. And add nukes.

    Not to say we shouldn’t beat them. We should. But don’t think beating them means it’s over.

  17. 17.

    Jay

    @Subsole:

    Most of the NATO neighbors to ruZZia  and Belarus are closing and fortifying their borders. Finland has been blocking asylum seekers, ruZzian refugees and ruZZian vehicles since November, when they discovered that the FSB had been smuggling asylum seekers from the Sahel, Syria and Africa and pushing them across the Finnish border.

    Sri Lanka has started kicking ruZZian’s out.

  18. 18.

    wjca

    Possible counts as OT.

    I wonder if anyone has informed Speaker (if only in name) Johnson of this:

    Israel’s ambassador to the UN, Gilad Erdan, delivered a speech in which he totally torched Russia.

    Given his, and his party’s, enthusiastic support for anything and everything Israel does, it must be challenging to read this and still be totally in the tank for Putin.  Although they will doubtless manage.

  19. 19.

    Jay

    @wjca:

    He didn’t just torch Russia, but promised that Israel will be delivering anti-missile radars to Ukraine very soon, and once the war in Gaza is over, lethal weapons.

  20. 20.

    Anoniminous

    Two things to factor in:

    1.  The 1,000,000 drones promised to Ukraine in 2024 by the EU Drone Coalition

    2.  The 1,000,000 drones Ukraine is said to be making in 2024

    That amount of firepower means the Ukrainians could reserve 200,000 – 300,000 for a dedicated anti-artillery hunt.  Blow up the artillery tubes and it doesn’t freaking matter how many shells the Russians are getting from North Korea.

  21. 21.

    Jay

    @Anoniminous:

    about half the drones, (according to UA sources), never make it to target. EW from both sides and shoot downs. Right now, one of the biggest issues with drones, is, “is it your drone, or their drone?” They don’t carry rondels, don’t have IFF, and right now, with the ruZZian surge in drone warfare, (copying the UA), the “average infantryman” doesn’t care who’s drone is buzzing about above them.

  22. 22.

    Anoniminous

    @Jay:

    I didn’t know the stats but what you say makes sense so I’ll run with it.

    In weapon’s systems achieving a 50% hit probability is actually incredibly good.  Granted 50% isn’t as good as ATGMs’ 98% hit probability with a 96% – IIRC – kill probability.  On the other side of the spectrum and an incredibly bad example is the Rule of Thumb is it takes 20,000–100,000 rounds shot at an enemy to cause one casualty; the reason machine guns cause so many KIAs and WIAs is they put more rounds downrange faster.

    Using my 200,000 to 300,000 as the basis for a guestimate and gloss with your figure means a projection of 100,000 to 150,000 Russian artillery tubes hit by a drone.   Further, he difference between sending onesies/twosies over a piece of enemy territory and sending one to two thousand is stark.  A drone in a  drone swarm is potentially more effective because the swarm overwhelms fire direction control of anti-drone weapons.  Swarms really change the ball game.

  23. 23.

    Subsole

    @Jay:

    Central Asia, China and the Middle East was more what I was thinking.

    If things get bad enough, people are going to just jump any way they can.

  24. 24.

    Subsole

     

     

    @Anoniminous:

    Another thing to consider is how close the controller has to be to the drone. If you have to get infantry within 6 km of a battery with a 30 km range sited 15 km behind hostile lines (all distances pulled directly from my ass), then drones lose a little bit of their punch.

  25. 25.

    Jay

    @Anoniminous:

    50% of the drones, used by both sides are used for recon and observation.

    The smaller of the weaponized drones, can drop between1 and several grenades. Medium sized drones can drop a 40mm mortar. They can kill a crew, but the gun will be fine. The larger ones can carry and anti-tank mine. That will do the job.

    Most arty killed so far on the ruZZian side has been from ATACM’s, Grads and other arty.

    The drones, don’t get me wrong, will help, but they won’t replace even a fraction of the aid and weapons that the ReThuglican vatnicks in the US House are holding back.

  26. 26.

    Rusty

    Just a quick thank you to Adam for continuing these posts.  By regularly reading them I have a better sense of the conflict and its wider implications than I would by following the regular news.  I appreciate them, thank you again.

  27. 27.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Well, Israel does see the increasingly tight alignment between Russia & Iran, & unlike the PRC Russia is not a major economic partner (at least not when it comes to legitimate trade & investment). It would also be interesting to see the evolution of Israel’s relationship w/ the PRC. The PRC has stood in solidarity w/ the Palestinians & the larger Global South wrt to the War in Gaza, at least rhetorically, & has not been particularly forthcoming in expressing deeply felt sympathy for the atrocities committed by Hamas on 10/7 . (PRC companies have continued to profit from selling drones & body armor to support the Israeli war effort.) Israel probably cannot afford the kind of public break w/ the PRC that it had just done w/ Russia, & Israel probably does not want to burn bridges w/ too many world powers at the same time. However, it would not be surprising to see the trade & collaboration in dual use tech. significantly curtailed. Successive Israeli governments have been trying to resist pressure from successive US administrations on this score.

    I also suspect that the new Israeli position is an effort to divert increasing Western pressure to wind down its war in Gaza. Unfortunately, I expect the pledge of munitions will prove an empty one, or at most token symbolic qty.

  28. 28.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jay:

    @Anoniminous:

    Piloted drones can be extremely accurate, & can reach targets otherwise difficult to prosecute w/ conventional arms (remember the footage of Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian vehicles hidden in a warehouse?). The FPVs & quad-/hexa-copters that both sides are using are also cheap to build in qty & does not require much of an industrial base to produce.

    However, they are manpower intensive to utilize (need many skilled pilots), have short range, long response time, generally have small payloads, & not adequate for volume fire. They are great for surgical strike, but not for suppression or breaking up masses concentrations. It is an asymmetric weapon that can greatly complement conventional arms, but cannot replace conventional arms.

    The videos I am seeing show the drones to be most effective when used to hit lead/trailing vehicles to stop an advancing column, then using ATGMs & artillery to systematically destroy the stalled column & the dismounted infantry. They are also quite good for hitting small isolated defensive positions, sweeping stragglers caught in no man’s land after a failed attack, & destroy abandoned equipment, saving the precious ATGMs & artillery in so doing. However, if the Ukrainian defenders become desperately short of artillery & ATGMs, the I don’t think they can stop a determined Russian mass assault using mostly drones.

  29. 29.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @YY_Sima Qian: I should add that there are ready countermeasures that can degrade (but not eliminate) the effectiveness of the cheap FPVs & quad-/hexa-copter drones. Jammers that interfere w/ the video link, well designed “cope cages”, etc. Both the offense & the defense are made from readily available off the shelf, commoditized components. We have seen photographic evidence of PRC produced jammers being attached to vehicles on both sides. It becomes innumerable battles of attrition between the drones & the countermeasures.

  30. 30.

    dimmsdale

    @Traveller:  A day late & a dollar short, perhaps, but I’m echoing @Traveller’s comments. Thanks to you, Adam, as always, not only for your clarity and your deeply informed viewpoint, but also for bringing together ALL the learned commenters here on the thread. I have learned from you all, and my sincere thanks to you all.

  31. 31.

    Traveller

    @dimmsdale: ​
      Well not entirely too late…I see your post and I am sure Adam has also.

    But you speak to a general truth here….there is a remarkably commentariat here at Balloon Juice, but also specifically following Adam.

    We are truly luck, and thank you for noticing this also, Best Wishes, Traveller

Comments are closed.