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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

Do not shrug your shoulders and accept the normalization of untruths.

SCOTUS: It’s not “bribery” unless it comes from the Bribery region of France. Otherwise, it’s merely “sparkling malfeasance”.

The rest of the comments were smacking Boebert like she was a piñata.

How stupid are these people?

This country desperately needs a functioning fourth estate.

The most dangerous place for a black man in America is in a white man’s imagination.

“What are Republicans afraid of?” Everything.

Too little, too late, ftfnyt. fuck all the way off.

Impressively dumb. Congratulations.

The gop is a fucking disgrace.

I’d like to think you all would remain faithful to me if i ever tried to have some of you killed.

Stay strong, because they are weak.

Not all heroes wear capes.

One way or another, he’s a liar.

Stand up, dammit!

Relentless negativity is not a sign that you are more realistic.

Yeah, with this crowd one never knows.

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

Washington Post Catch and Kill, not noticeably better than the Enquirer’s.

Conservatism: there are people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

Every reporter and pundit should have to declare if they ever vacationed with a billionaire.

So many bastards, so little time.

Dear media: perhaps we ought to let Donald Trump speak for himself!

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You are here: Home / Archives for 2024

Archives for 2024

Risk pools and premiums

by David Anderson|  September 10, 202410:26 am| 9 Comments

This post is in: Anderson On Health Insurance

I’ve switched to the University of South Carolina’s employee health insurance plan effective September 1st. Before that I was on the Duke Grad Student plan. Both plans were self-funded by the employer which means the state or the university paid all the claims while the insurance company just did the administrative grunt work of running a plan. South Carolina’s standard plan is roughly a Gold plan while its low cost plan is roughly a Silver plan. The Duke plan was a platinum plan. Both networks are pretty damn broad. The Duke plan was “free” to me while the South Carolina saver’s plan has an employee deduction from my paycheck of less than a burrito per pay-check. These are both good plans!

But the impact of age on risk pools is amazing.

At Duke I was an elderly grad student. The median grad student was likely in their late 20s. The women were disproportionally unlikely to be pregnant relative to their age-cohort. We were CHEAP and in any given year, relatively low risk!

At South Carolina, I’m probably pretty damn close to the median aged enrollee. Looking up and down my hallway, there are some people about my age, some people substantially younger but still on the employee plan and some people who are notably older.

The average premium reported on my W2 Box 12DD for South Carolina will be substantially higher than my Duke insurance premium not because the benefit is richer (it is not), not because the network is intrinsically better/broader (they’re about the same) but because the risk pool is substantially older. An employer group risk pool typically is healthier than the general population as Medicare and Medicaid act as explicit payers of first resort for several expensive categories of care and a de facto high cost risk pool through the disability system, but even within employer groups, there are massive differences in group composition.

Risk pools and premiumsPost + Comments (9)

Quick Stop, Nebraska! Nebraska?

by WaterGirl|  September 10, 202410:00 am| 40 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Strategic Candidate Fundraising, Targeted Political Fundraising 2023-24

We Interrupt our regularly scheduled GOTV fundraising for a quick candidate money drop: Tony Vargas (NE-02) and Senate challenger Dan Osborn.

We’ll get back to NCAAT in a day or so (and there’s an active Angel match with 6x donations) so please carry on with that if you are so inclined.  But we figured we’ll all be distracted with he debate, so it seems possible that this might be a good day for candidate donations, too.

Balloon Juice is heading to NEBRASKA!  Nebraska?  Yes, Nebraska.


Donate

US HOUSE SEAT: NE-02

The race between incumbent Republican Don Bacon and Democrat Tony Vargas is close.

Fun Facts:

  • Madame VP is running ahead in CD 2, and the incumbent Republican, Don Bacon is vulnerable.
  • This year is a rematch between Don Bacon and Democrat Tony Vargas.
  • Bacon beat Vargas by only three points in 2022, and off-year election with middling turnout.
  • We supported Vargas in 2022 to the tune of $5,011.
  • Bacon is now unpopular with Republicans in Nebraska, for being partly sane about a couple of issues.
  • Bacon had a bruising primary, with 40% of Cornhusker Republicans voting for his far right opponent.
  • While Vargas holds a slight Q2 fundraising advantage, the NRCC will surely dump more $ into NE-02.

NEBRASKA SENATE RACE

The big surprise in Nebraska is the Senate race.

Incumbent Senator Deb Fischer is not particularly beloved in Nebraska.  As a result of her lukewarm support, the darkest of dark horse candidates – a political independent named Dan Osborn – is nearly tied with Fischer in four separate surveys.  And this is without the overt support of the Democratic party.  

Who is Dan Osborne?

Osborn is a blue-collar union worker and political newcomer, who is running as an independent.  He’s backed by the UAW and other labor organizations, but is not accepting endorsements from the Democratic party (undoubtedly a smart strategy in Nebraska).   Here’s more on Dan.  (No paywall.)

Needless to say, Dan Osborn is lagging in fundraising.   Are these polls complete outliers?  Perhaps.  But the momentum is with the Democrats in NE-02, aka CD 2, which Osborn needs to carry handily to outweigh rural Nebraska.  It’s NE-02 when we’re talking about the House; it’s CD 2 when we are talking about the electoral college.

Will it help that Tim Walz is a native Nebraskan who has already held a wildly successful rally in Omaha?

NEBRASKA CD 2 (ELECTORAL COLLEGE)

Nebraska, like Maine, awards its electoral votes by Congressional District.  Nebraska CD 2 (essentially, greater Omaha) is perpetually up for grabs – Obama won it in 2008 and lost it in 2012.  Trump won it in 2016 and lost it in 2020.

What’s more, the website 270ToWin Electoral College Tie Finder shows at least three plausible electoral outcomes that lead to a 269-269 tie.

 If that happens, Nebraska CD 2 could decide the election.  One way or the other.  Let’s help make sure it goes our way, eh?

THE NEBRASKA EFFORT IS AN INVESTMENT

This is an investment in regaining the house.

This is an investment in possibly (although perhaps unlikely) picking up an unexpected Senate seat.

This is an investment in helping to drive turnout in CD 2 to help secure its potentially tie-breaking electoral vote.  

QUICK NOTE ON STRATEGIC CANDIDATE FUNDRAISING

A quick note on strategic candidate fundraising.

It’s bears repeating that “close” and “toss-up” and “Republican incumbent in a Biden district” are not the same as “needs money” or “this would be a good strategic use for our money.”  That’s why we’re mostly keeping our powder dry on candidate fundraising until later this month, when we’ll have a better idea of who is overlooked and underfunded.

But we’re rolling out Nebraska now, in honor of the debate tonight, and you can expect a candidate component for the upcoming Operation Blue Arizona!  (As soon as we finish NCAAT.)

We are hoping to raise $10,000 for Osborn and Vargas. And we may revisit one or both of these later, but for now $5k each seems like enough to make a difference.  If you want to contribute to one of these races and not the other, or give more to one than the other, click on Customize Amounts before you enter your dollar amount.

These two Nebraska races fit our strategy of narrow-targeting those races that potentially have the most impact, and where our funds can make a difference.

Side note: Click on “here’s more on Dan” above if you want to read the story about how Charlton Heston (yes the gun-humping actor) got Dan Osborn fired from his job waiting tables.  I guess Charlton Heston was always a dick.

One more thing.  Now that we’re heading toward the final stretch, we’ve added a new page under 2024 Activism – Strategic Candidate Fundraising.  It’s similar to the Targeted Fundraising page, which is focused on the organizations we are supporting.  Strategic Candidate Fundraising is where you’ll find all the candidate fundraising as the final weeks progress.

Besides that, this can be an open thread to talk about the debate and anything else.

Quick Stop, Nebraska! Nebraska?Post + Comments (40)

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: Hugely Debatable

by Anne Laurie|  September 10, 20247:39 am| 193 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Kamala Harris for President, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat

Tuesday Morning Open Thread:  Hugely Debatable 2

(John Deering via GoComics.com)

It's wrestling. The face (Kamala) has to honor tradition, be a role model for kids and win 'the right way.' The heel (Trump) has to be funny on the mic, keep the drama fresh and win by any means necessary, to include sending a mob of roided up mooks to beat up the ref backstage. https://t.co/rQyhsHpbsM

— zeddy (@Zeddary) September 9, 2024

My concrete prediction for the debate tomorrow is that Harris is going to successfully goad Trump into losing it and saying something truly unhinged https://t.co/yobKeLZxXF

— vituperativeerb (@vituperativeerb) September 10, 2024

Harris trolls Trump on debate day with criticism from inside his administration https://t.co/QOIrOCS8mf

— POLITICO (@politico) September 9, 2024

“If I was a convicted felon, I’d want to cut funding for police too.”

Their social media team is so good!!!! https://t.co/XFl3d5Z0eh

— LadyGrey 🇦🇲🇺🇦🇺🇸 (@TWLadyGrey) September 10, 2024

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Tuesday Morning Open Thread: Hugely DebatablePost + Comments (193)

On The Road – ema – Coney Island Mermaids

by WaterGirl|  September 10, 20245:00 am| 14 Comments

This post is in: On The Road, Photo Blogging

ema

Before heading out to Coney Island to film my first Mermaid Parade* I formulated a cunning plan. 

Since it takes about one hour to reach Coney Island, I would take advantage of the trip, get there early and do some extra filming – a boardwalk stroll, the NY Aquarium fishy fishes, and then the parade. 

There was a heat advisory in effect for the day but I was dipped in sunscreen, other than my hands I had no exposed skin, and I was feeling pretty cocky that day. Let’s see how that turned out, shall we?

(* some clips might be NSFW)

On The Road – ema – Coney Island MermaidsPost + Comments (14)

On The Road - ema - Coney Island Mermaids 9

I started filming at the pier, then right on the Coney Island boardwalk, all to the way to the NY Aquarium, about a 20 minute walk.

All along the walk I noticed people (39s) sitting, with their backs to the beach and the ocean, under umbrellas, in the high heat and humidity, blasting music from huge speakers. I’m unclear why they weren’t either on the beach or at home, enjoying the AC.

Repub Venality Open Thread: Furriners Bad, the Never-Ending Fairytale

by Anne Laurie|  September 9, 202410:02 pm| 182 Comments

This post is in: Immigration, Open Threads, Republican Stupidity, Republican Venality

Ducks disappearing from the Northern hemisphere in September? The only possibility is that they were eaten by Haitians. https://t.co/CMEcfuj3KO

— Shadow Of The Nerdtree (@agraybee) September 9, 2024

I remember my Anthro 101 professor, fifty years ago, telling us that one of the universal human constants was the conviction that Those people on the other side of the river eat taboo foods and have sex with prohibited kinfolk. The modern GOP, of course, considers this a valuable plank in their ‘Old ways are the BEST — real Murican — ways‘ platform…

You lying, racist, couch fucking piece of shit https://t.co/I84UgTpnmo

— Ragnarok Lobster 🐺 (@eclecticbrotha) September 9, 2024

Gym Jordan’s legislative lynch mob investigative committee:

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Repub Venality Open Thread: <em>Furriners Bad</em>, the Never-Ending FairytalePost + Comments (182)

Monday Night Open Thread

by John Cole|  September 9, 20249:16 pm| 72 Comments

This post is in: John Cole Presents "This Fucking Old House", Open Threads

I’ve been depressed and anxious the last couple of days. Part of it is seasonal change, part of it is the existential dread of “what if he wins,” part of it is my shoulder hurting and just being bummed about all those years of work to get to a good place with it and then a stupid god damned fall and I am back to being in pain all day, part of it is the constant concerns about money (making less now than I did 15 years ago and having more work, I still need a roof, I still need a new water line, I’m gonna need a new car), part of it is just being old and thinking “well now the fuck what I’m nowhere near where I wanted to be,” and so on.

It will pass, but it does make me feel shitty. Just gonna keep on my schedule, keep going to the gym, doing my thing, and keeping on. What the fuck else is there to do?

***

In other news, the NY Times has apparently noticed for the first time that Trump is fucking insane:

The last time the nation held a debate with the presidency on the line, a candidate with about eight decades of life behind him faced the challenge of proving that he was still up to the job of running the country. He failed.

Two and a half months later, the cast of characters has shifted and another candidate heading toward the octogenarian club confronts his own test to demonstrate that he has not diminished with age. Whether he passes that test may influence who will be the next occupant of the Oval Office.

At 78, former President Donald J. Trump exhibits more energy and speaks with more volume than President Biden does at 81, but he, too, has mixed up names, confused facts and stumbled over his points. Mr. Trump’s rambling speeches, sometimes incoherent statements and extreme outbursts have raised questions about his own cognitive health and, according to polls, stimulated doubts among a majority of voters.

No fucking shit.

***

Banking wisely on the unending stupidity of the Republican base, Trump and Vance are pushing a new despicable and racist story:

Officials in Springfield, Ohio, said Monday they have not received any credible reports of Haitian immigrants abducting and eating pets, despite viral claims on social media that have been amplified by Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance and others.

References to the claim, which allege Haitian migrants have been eating cats, as well as ducks and geese, have garnered millions of views on X, with Vance’s X post racking up 4 million views alone, as of Monday evening. Vance, the Republican senator for Ohio, said he had previously raised the issue of Haitian immigrants “causing chaos all over Springfield,” adding, “Reports now show that people have had their pets abducted and eaten by people who shouldn’t be in this country.”

The House Judiciary GOP, Sen. Ted Cruz and Elon Musk, the owner of X, also posted about the claim on Monday. Cruz, a Texas Republican, posted a meme on X showing two cats holding each other, with text that reads “Please vote for Trump so Haitian immigrants don’t eat us.”

In other words, some white boomer somewhere in Ohio saw a black person with a dog or a cat, and a couple days of racism and hysteria later, we get to this. Fuck these people.

***

Joelle and I were talking the other day and we agreed that were I a warlock, I would need two familiars, because Steve and Maxwell are such completely different cats and really yin to the others yang. Maxwell follows me everywhere, has to be on top of me at all times, and Steve is the calm, measured energy, just doing his thing, making his presence known every now and then, etc.

At any rate, my new fixation is videos of animals grooming each other. I really like watching the monkeys and chimps, but birds preening each other are always super relaxing to watch, too. I wish I spoke their language and cold understand what they are saying to each other. I also find symbiotic relationships to be super cool to watch, like the oxpeckers on the backs of elephants, or wolves and crows. It’s just so cool to watch.

I was thinking about that today while I was crying in the pool. The pool is a really great place to shed a tear, because no one can tell and you can blame the red eyes on chlorine. I was doing some slow breast stroke laps and tweaked my healing shoulder, and it just overwhelmed me and all the frustration of all the things I mentioned above hit me so I sat there in the water and had a brief cathartic sad. I’m not a crier, really- when I do I really fucking do it- but always in private and it’s pretty infrequent. I used to tear up a lot more when I was a drunk, but that was usually when watching something hopecore- and it was mainly gin tears like John Boehner.

What the fuck was I talking about?

At any rate I had a sad and then it passed and now I am fine and I was thinking about symbiotic relationships in nature. There so neat and it makes so much sense and everyone gets their needs addressed and then you fuck off back to hating on everyone else. Kinda like a truce on Christmas Eve on the front. And it works out so well now, but fuck all it had to be a risky endeavor at first. I meant that first crow to fuck with a pack of wolves had to be off its fucking rocker. Or I forget what animal it is but it climbs into the mouth of a predator and cleans the teeth picking up any scraps for itself. That had to be risky as fuck the first couple of tries until the circle of trust was built.

That’s it for me. I’m going to go throw a bag of frozen peas on my shoulder and watch this show on Netflix called Pieces of Her because Toni Collette is in it. BTW- Season 4 of True Detective with Jodie Foster was great. Don’t listen to the critics. Bunch of idiots who keep expecting Season 1 but new and not realizing that that is never going to happen and each season will be unique.

*** Update ***

I forgot- James Earl Jones died, and I am very sad about that. He had such and amazing voice. I remember sitting in the radio station for hours trying to imitate it and always coming up way short. He was also in one of my favorite movies ever, Gardens of Stone, which was such a timely movie for me after spending several years in a prep school that had recently converted from a military posture.

Monday Night Open ThreadPost + Comments (72)

War for Ukraine Day 929: Incredibly Alarmed!

by Adam L Silverman|  September 9, 20247:39 pm| 20 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Iran, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Three quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is still doing great as she enjoys her week off between treatments. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, last night’s request to take it down a notch or two in the comments was not directed at any specific person. We’ve all been a bit testy, for obvious reasons, and that was the driver of the request.

Third, today was Monday… So I’m going to just cover the basics, have something to eat, get cleaned up, and rack out.

As of 6:30 PM EDT/1:30 AM local time in Ukraine, the air raid alerts are spreading across Ukraine. Currently all of eastern and central Ukraine, minus Zaporizhzhia Oblast, are under air raid alert. There’s no indication of MiG-31s or Su-24s on the air raid alert warning maps. This is most likely another drone swarm.

The State Department is incredibly alarmed! I think this means we have to change the flashing warning lighting to puce.

Significant consequences are going to be very hard thoughts and very intense prayers. https://t.co/XC9Y9WnLAL

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 9, 2024

“We will continue to judge Iran by its actions,” DoS Deputy Spox tells me.

“… A reported missile transfer would basically threaten international safety in the international order.”

— Alex Raufoglu (@ralakbar) September 9, 2024

Secretary Blinken is in London.

Will he discuss allowing the UK to lift restrictions on Ukraine striking russia with Storm Shadow missiles?

I just asked DoS Deputy Spox 👇🏻

“Support for Ukraine I expect to be a major topic of conversation when the Secretary has his govt to… pic.twitter.com/QjhmkS937E

— Alex Raufoglu (@ralakbar) September 9, 2024

Secretary Blinken is in London.

Will he discuss allowing the UK to lift restrictions on Ukraine striking russia with Storm Shadow missiles?

I just asked DoS Deputy Spox 👇🏻

“Support for Ukraine I expect to be a major topic of conversation when the Secretary has his govt to govt meetings tomorrow”

Incredibly alarmed should put the fear of something into the Quds Force and the Supreme Religious Authority. I’m sure they’re just quaking in fear in Tehran and Qom over the potential significant consequences. We’re not going to attack Iran. We’ve already levied every sanction imaginable possible on Iran and Iranian political, religious, and military elites. And the Iranians can close straits any time they like. Again, it would be better if they’d say nothing than continue to prattle away in a manner that is neither convincing, nor helping.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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War for Ukraine Day 929: Incredibly Alarmed!Post + Comments (20)

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