Archives for 2024

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Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is still doing well after her treatment yesterday. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, tonight’s update is going to be terse, grim, and if you don’t want your mellow harshed from today’s domestic to the US news, you may want to pass on by.

As I start drafting tonight’s post – 8:50 PM EDT/3:50 AM local in Ukraine – Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts in the east and the central/north-central oblasts of Ukraine are under air raid alert with a strike reported in Khmelnitskyi Oblast.

Shortly after I published last night’s update, which was right after the air raid alert in Kharkiv went back up, the Russian’s launched an Iskander barrage at Kharkiv City:

Explosion in Kharkiv ‼️

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) August 6, 2024

❗️This morning, russian forces launched an Iskander missile strike at the heart of Kharkiv, damaging apartment buildings, a polyclinic, a student dormitory, and other civilian infrastructure. Currently, eight civilians are reported injured!

📷Nakypilo, Gwara media pic.twitter.com/9spZuBZLnW

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) August 6, 2024

❗️An eight-month-old infant is among eight injured in the recent russian missile strike on Kharkiv this morning!

📷Gwara media pic.twitter.com/a0iz3XwUf4

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) August 6, 2024

UPD. Kharkiv. A russian missile strike on the city resulted in one civilian death and 12 injuries. Rescue operations are ongoing, as there may still be people trapped beneath the rubble. pic.twitter.com/GNu47Aft2e

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) August 6, 2024

If you’re wondering why this keeps happening, why Ukraine can’t stop it from happening, part of the reason is going to hurt. One part, obviously, is because Putin and the Russian are undertaking a genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine. If Putin can take it Ukraine and Russianize it into the Ruskiy Mir, great. If not, he’ll destroy it, rebuild, and then repopulate it with real ethnic Russians from the Russian metropoles. The other part, however, is that President Biden has appointed the worst, most risk averse senior national security team possible, which has prevented Ukraine from actually using the weapons they’ve been provided from prosecuting legitimate military targets in Russia. Targets, that had they been targeted when Ukraine had the opportunity, would make it much, much, much harder for Russia to carry out its genocidal attacks on Ukrainian civilians. Forbes has the details: (emphasis mine)

For months, Ukrainian officials have been begging their foreign allies for permission to use the best donated weaponry—in particular, powerful ballistic missiles—to hit Russian warplanes that have been parking out in the open at airfields inside Russia within quick flying time of Ukrainian cities.

For months, those allies have demurred, citing the risk of escalation as Russia’s wider war on Ukraine grinds into its 29th month.

Clearly growing impatient, Ukrainian forces have stepped up their attacks on the most vulnerable Russian airfields—strictly deploying Ukrainian-made munitions. On Saturday, Ukrainian drones targeted Morozovsk air base in southern Russia 200 miles from the front line in eastern Ukraine.

According to the Ukrainian intelligence directorate, the drone raid destroyed a Russian air force Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bomber, damaged two additional Su-34s and burned down an ammunition warehouse.

The directorate published satellite imagery of the base depicting what it described as “extensive areas of scorched earth” resulting from the ammo cooking off in the aftermath of the attack.

Since dropping its first crude glide bombs on Ukraine last year, the Russian air force has really embraced the satellite-guided munitions. Thanks to their pop-out wings, the hastily-built “KAB” glide bombs possess just enough range—25 miles or more, depending on the model—to allow Su-34 fighter-bombers to hit Ukrainian troops and civilians from beyond the range of the best Ukrainian air defenses.

Every day, the Russians drop as many as 100 KABs, some weighing more than three tons. “Unfortunately, in urban environments, their large and frequent use is highly effective,” Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insight reported.

“Even though they are often imprecise, the sheer payload is enough to demolish or severely damage buildings, even if the KAB doesn’t hit the target directly,” Frontelligence Insight continued. “When buildings collapse, underground basements trap people inside, making rescue operations impossible, especially when the Russians conduct double and triple-tap attacks.”

As urban demolition weapons, the KABs have been a deciding factor in practically every recent Russian victory all along the 700-mile front line. “In the past, like in the battle for Bakhmut [last year], it sometimes took days for Russian artillery to damage buildings enough to force defenders to retreat,” Frontelligence Insight explained. “Now, entire buildings can collapse in seconds, rendering them useless for defensive purposes.”

It’s a top priority of the government in Kyiv to blunt the glide-bombing campaign by destroying the bombers, the bombs—or both.

There was a rare opportunity to deliver a major blow against the KAB infrastructure earlier this summer, when the Russian air force’s 47th Guards Bomber Aviation Regiment parked dozens of Su-34s—out of roughly 100 in service—in open at Voronezh Malshevo air base in southern Russia 100 miles from the border with Ukraine.

Voronezh Malshevo is a reasonably well-defended base, so the Ukrainians pleaded for permission to fire their best American-made Army Tactical Missile System rockets at the base. The ATACMs are almost impossible to intercept.

But the administration of U.S. Pres. Joe Biden said no. “Our policy has not changed,” Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security advisor, told reporters last month. As before, Ukraine would only be allowed to fire ATACMS at targets in Russian-occupied Ukraine.

The Russians observed the heated diplomacy regarding ATACMS—and made a rare proactive decision to pull the Su-34s from Voronezh Malshevo and other border airfields.

“Between the second half of June and mid-July, Russian forces relocated a lion’s [share] of valuable military assets away from the border area with Ukraine,” Frontelligence Insight noted. The departure of Su-34s from Voronezh Malshevo was among “the most notable movements.”

Today many of the Su-34s are at bases hundreds of miles from the border. They’re not invulnerable to Ukrainian drones—the farthest-flying models range more than 1,000 miles.

But they are safe from most Ukrainian drones, as well as from the ATACMS, the most powerful of which range just 190 miles. If the White House ever grants permission for ATACMS raids on Russian bases, it might be too late. The most valuable targets may be too far away.

Obviously, a handful of Su-34s—as well as some stocks of KAB bombs—remain at border airfields such as Morozovsk: Ukraine just hit three of the planes plus their ammo.

But to end the glide-bombing campaign, Ukraine needs to destroy scores of Su-34s—not one or several. And smarter Russian deployments are making that harder to achieve.

For want of a nail!!!

I want to make another point here. The Biden administration has gone all in on an initiative to reduce and mitigate civilian harm. Secretary Austin issued a memo, which was followed by the creation of an action plan and then a DOD instruction. There is a heavy emphasis on protecting civilians. On working with allies and partners to do so. They even set up a Civilian Protection Center of Excellence as directed in the action plan. You know what the Biden administration is not doing? Not doing anything to help protect Ukrainian civilians. It is actively preventing Ukraine from protecting its own civilians. The hypocrisy, strategic malpractice, and risk aversion is overwhelming. We’re not talking about letting Ukraine attack Red Square or the Kremlin or the Winter Palace or even Putin’s mansion in Sochi. We’re talking about legitimate military targets that are targeting and killing Ukrainian civilians every single day! These absolutely unjustifiable decisions aren’t making anyone safer. Not the Ukrainians, not our NATO and EU allies and partners, and not Americans.

For want of a fucking nail!!!

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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War for Ukraine Day 895: For Want of a Nail!!!!!!!Post + Comments (24)