BettyC just brought my attention to commenter Betty’s question from her recent post. Betty April 13, 2022 at 4:49 pm A politics question for Adam if he reads this. The …
Adam L Silverman
War for Ukraine Update 48: Mariupol Hangs By a Thread
by Adam L Silverman| 101 Comments
This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine
(Image found here; artist unknown) We’re going to start again this evening in Mariupol. This morning reports started coming out that elements of Ukraine’s 36th Marine Brigade, which has been fighting from within Mariupol, had run out of ammunition, other supplies, and, as a result, were surrendering. Reporting in The Daily Beast both clarifies and …
War for Ukraine Update 48: Mariupol Hangs By a ThreadPost + Comments (101)
Here’s the latest British Ministry of Defense update:
And here’s the latest British Ministry of Defense map of where everything is in the south and east of Ukraine:
Here’s the transcript of the DOD’s backgrounder briefing from earlier today:
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Okay, good morning, everybody. Sorry I’m a little bit late.
I don’t have a whole lot of updates today from yesterday, so I’ll just, rather than go through everything, I’ll just tell you what I can update you on.
We’re up to more than 1,540 missile launches. Air strikes continue to be focused on Mariupol and the Joint Force operation area there to the east, and Donbas.
The convoy that we’ve been talking about is still north of Izyum about 60 kilometers or so, and we do assess that it’s moving, but not at breakneck speed. No updates for — I don’t have the number of vehicles. I don’t know how fast they’re traveling. I don’t know what’s in every truck, but I still would characterize it the way I characterized it yesterday. It includes some command-and-control elements, some enablers and we think it’s also intended for resupply, perhaps an effort to amend their poor performance and logistics and sustainment in the north. But again, we don’t really have a whole lot more information about what’s in that thing.
There is still heavy fighting around Izyum right now, and Russian forces do remain south of Izyum, again, about 20 kilometers or so, which is not a huge change from where it was before. I don’t have an update on number of BTGs that are in the east and the south. Nothing to update you from yesterday. It’s about the same, and let’s see —
I think that’s it, so we’ll get the questions because I’ve got a hard stop at 11 o’clock, so Bob, on to you.
Q: Thank you, Let’s see — on the issue of a possible — of white phosphorus or some sort of chemical agent that has been reported the last couple of days, do you have any update on what your assessment of that is?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Yeah, no updates. You saw my brief statement last night. I think that statement holds today, that we’re still trying to monitor that — these reports, but we cannot confirm the use of chemical agents at this time. We’re still evaluating.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Yup.
Tom Bowman?
Q: Yeah, on this convoy, presumably, we believe they’re heading to Izyum, is that right? And also, are the Ukrainians attacking this convoy at all, or is this kind of open ground that makes that difficult? And also, what’s the Russian combat power, what percentage? I think one of the last times we talked, it was like 85 percent.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Yeah. So we would assess that Russian assessed available combat power — and again, I want to remind you guys that that’s of the combat power that they preassembled before their invasion. We estimate that they’re just above 80 percent in terms of what’s left of them.
Yes, the convoy’s north of Izyum. I don’t know its final destination, but I would remind that, you know, with the spring weather they have to stay on the paved roads. They’re staying on highways and avenues. They’re not going off-roading here. So we do assess them about 60 kilometers north of Izyum, and they are moving south. Now, whether Izyum is it, I just don’t know.
Q: And as far as —
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: No, and I have not seen — we haven’t seen indications that the Ukrainians have attempted attacks on the convoy yet.
Q: Okay, thanks.
Dan Lamothe?
Q: Hi, good morning. Thank you.
Wanted to see if we could maybe get some explanation on the challenges that go with confirming this kind of report in Mariupol with the chemical agents in light of the security, the challenges to get soil samples, anything else, you know, outsiders might use to try and confirm something like this.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Yeah. I mean, well, the biggest challenge is we’re not there, you know. And we don’t know if anything was used.
But let’s say for hypothetical purposes, and I hate doing this, but let’s say it was riot control agents. So the effects are going to be felt pretty immediately, and probably not widespread, probably not going to get into the soil. And the symptoms,depending on an individual’s susceptibility, could be short-felt or it could be more long-term, we just don’t know. And we don’t have access to the hospitals that might have treated these individuals to talk to the doctors who could give a diagnosis.
I mean, there’s a host of difficulties. If it was something larger than that then, of course, you would expect to see more widespread people being hurt and being treated for it. And again, that would require you to have some dexterity in talking to medical professionals.
Or if there was, again, something even bigger you, you know, a plume for instance of a cloud or something that you could track. But those are very difficult to track when you’re not there. They’re certainly not something you can just track easily from, you know, from the air. So these are difficult things to prove even when you are more proximate, and we are not.
And so I think you can understand we want to be very careful here before making a proclamation.
That said, look, we know that the Russians have a history of using chemical agents. And they have shown a propensity in the past, and so we’re taking it seriously.
The rest of the Q&A is at the link!
Russian Bastion Anti-Ship missile unit on the move west of Vyborg.
That road leads to Finland along the Saimaa Canal. It's about 26km from the Finnish border and 7km from the lowest lock of the canal that is rented to Finland.#turpo https://t.co/EY6pwhVH6r— Petri Mäkelä (@pmakela1) April 11, 2022
Putin has a limited, but up until February, very effective strategic playbook. He uses it over and over and over again and every time, so far, it has worked. When I mentioned last night that I was concerned with the long lead time between the announcement that Finland and Sweden would joint NATO and it actually happening, I wasn’t just spitballing. Putin has pulled this off successfully twice before. And the reason he keeps going back to the same playbook over and over and over again is because he is convinced that western states and societies – the US, the EU, NATO, and non EU and non NATO allies, will do what they always do: eventually lose focus, lose their interest, and he’ll be allowed, once again, to get away with it. Here’s a good explainer on this by Slava Malamud:
The most likely scenario of how all of this develops: Putin switches fully into the "Syria mode." This means total warfare, on the entire territory of Ukraine, via air strikes designed to level entire cities and utterly destroy Ukraine's infrastructure.
He may succeed…— Slava Malamud ?? (@SlavaMalamud) April 12, 2022
Putin, at this point, must know he can’t conquer Ukraine in the traditional military sense. There won’t be a parade in Kyiv, Russian tanks won’t roll into Lviv, Russian-speakers in Odesa won’t be greeting him with bread and salt. So, his goal will be not to conquer, but to crush
The idea is to level as much of Ukraine as is possible, to create chaos, despair, discontent, willingness to end this at any cost. At which point Putin can negotiate for the “brokered peace” that many in the West secretly or openly desire. It’s a win for everyone. Except Ukraine.
And democracy. And freedom. And humanity. For everyone else – sure, a big win. Putin gets to annex the east. He gets to make the rest of Ukraine an effective colony/protectorate. He gets to declare victory and proclaim himself the savior of Russia. He gets monuments everywhere…
The West gets to lift the sanctions and keep making money. Hoping that they have satisfied Putin’s ambitions. Which they won’t. Because the rest of Ukraine, once properly “demilitarized”, will be ripe for annexation. And then – why not? Poland, Finland, the sky is the limit.
All he’ll need is for Trump, Le Pen, other friendly politicians to finally dismember NATO. This can be achieved within a few years, given favorable election results. This is the long game. The short game: Ukrainian cities buried in rubble. Ukrainian people dead, mutilated, raped.
The price that, he hopes, the West will pay to put Russia out of its mind & go back to making money. His bet is on Western corruption and decadence. He knows he can make Russians endure all hardships for The Glory of the Motherland. They will eat tree bark and praise Dear Leader.
They have done this before, many times. But the West, in his estimation, is beholden to fickle voters who value their comfort and don’t much care for what’s beyond their borders. Western politicians are weak, cowardly and only want to avoid conflict and crises…
They will negotiate. They will let him take his lap. They will hope he is satisfied. This is the plan. And you don’t need a genius to see it. The only question that remains: is Putin right?
There are two differences this time though. The first is President Zelenskyy who has been masterful with his public diplomacy of naming and shaming to try to keep the coalition providing Ukraine support in line.
Not least among Zelensky's accomplishments thus far has been his spotlighting and shaming of all the European enablers of the Kremlin through his unvarnished form of diplomacy. https://t.co/zphqOq0dlD
— Michael Weiss ????? (@michaeldweiss) April 12, 2022
From CBS News:
Zelenskyy said Ukraine needs more sanctions imposed on Russia, and more military aid from allies, who should be less fearful of Putin.
“Weapons, number one. They need to be very serious about it. They definitely understand what I’m talking about right now. They have to supply weapons to Ukraine as if they were defending themselves and their own people. They need to understand this: If they don’t speed up, it will be very hard for us to hold on against this pressure. The second factor is sanctions. Because we’ve found some things in sanctions that are easy for financial experts to circumvent. Russia has been circumventing them, and this is absolutely true. The Western world knows it. This shouldn’t be allowed. This is not a movie, this is real life. Stop fearing the Russian Federation. We’ve shown we are not afraid.”
Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, told Pelley that he asked the Biden administration for heavier weapons – tanks and jets – and for them to be delivered fast.
“If we receive this support in time, we will win,” Yermak said.
A White House official told 60 Minutes that Yermak received a “yes” to his requests, but filling those orders takes time. The Ukrainians also need Russian-made weapons that they already know how to use.
The second is President Biden.
Biden: I called it genocide because it has become clear that Putin is just trying to wipe out the idea of even being able to be a Ukrainian pic.twitter.com/h4SBfDQuFW
— Acyn (@Acyn) April 12, 2022
Here’s Zelenskyy’s reply:
True words of a true leader @POTUS. Calling things by their names is essential to stand up to evil. We are grateful for US assistance provided so far and we urgently need more heavy weapons to prevent further Russian atrocities.
— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) April 12, 2022
Ukraine is in massive need of basic military resupply. All the high tech stuff is getting a lot of attention, but the reality is that the basics are in short supply and the campaign in the Donbas is imminent!
I can confirm that volunteers and charity organizations in Ukraine are still raising money for things such as night vision equipment and tactical medicine kits for Ukrainian military. The Western assistance is clearly not sufficient https://t.co/WVd5H4nWlu
— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) April 12, 2022
Here’s the rest of Mohov’s thread:
- We are requesting heavy equipment because it would make a larger, strategic difference, but our Western allies have not provided enough of *anything*. Radios. Night vision and thermal optics. Rangefinders. Drones. Combat boots. Tourniquets. Grenades. Binoculars. Battle sights.
- I am saying this as someone who receives dozens of requests for things like uniforms, socks, knives, tents, backpacks, canteens, scalpels, flags for bomb squads, tactical headphones, medkits WEEKLY without even officially being a part of any fund that helps the army.
- So, when I hear from German politicians that they have reached some sort of limit in help for Ukraine, knowing that all these things and more have been requested and re-requested on absolutely every level, it sounds like a cynical joke. Sounds like they sided with Putin.
- And this is the type of reply we get whenever we bring this up. Also on all levels. Just for your information.
- The sense of entitlement is going to destroy Ukraine. Keep in mind: Absolutely no one owes Ukraine anything. Ukraine is the only one responsible for defending Ukraine and they have neglected that and failed themselves. The less grateful Ukraine is the less it gets and deserves.
- Often, it’s been the opposite of charity: it’s been sabotage. I think the electorate of these politicians deserves to know this. It’s frequently the case of countries BLOCKING purchases of necessary equipment by Ukraine. For cash money. They don’t let us buy stuff.
The result is attempts to crowdsource basic military supplies:
You deserve to know where your donations went.
And if you haven't contributed yet, there's still time. This is far from over and there are still lives to be saved.
— Scott Greenfield (@ScottGreenfield) April 12, 2022
One of the problems here, from small arms and ammunition to large ones is that Ukraine is still using Soviet bloc style weaponry. NATO’s stockpiles of side arms, carbines, rifles, and the ammunition for it is all standardized. Essentially 9mm parabellum ammunition and handguns chambered for it and 5.56 NATO rifle rounds and the carbines and rifles chambered for it. Ukraine uses the AK pattern rifles, which use 7.62X39mm rounds. Same problem for the big stuff. From The Times of London:
Western countries are ramping up weapons deliveries to Ukraine as the country prepares for an expected Russian push to take Donbas in the east. However, they are struggling to provide weaponry compatible with the country’s antiquated artillery units, which date back to the Soviet era, according to reports last night.
Ukraine requires more long-range artillery to target the Russian forces that have been relentlessly shelling its cities over the past six weeks. Nato countries tend to use 155mm calibre while Ukraine’s weapons use 152mm.
“The Ukrainians are running out of 152mm ammunition. Where are they going to get it?” Chris Donnelly, an adviser to four former Nato secretaries-general on the Soviet and Russian military told the Financial Times. “No one in the West uses it or makes it apart from the Serbs — and they’re on Russia’s side.”
After being successfully repelled from taking Kyiv, Russian forces are regrouping and moving eastwards for an offensive to take the Donbas region in the east, which sources in the West think will take about a week.
Ukraine is calling for tanks, fighter jets and long-range anti-aircraft missile systems.
“We recognise . . . more advanced weapons will be required,” an official from a Nato country told the Financial Times. “We’re prepared to go further.”
However, the issue is whether to try to source weaponry compatible with Ukraine’s ageing systems, or provide newer weapons used by Nato countries that Ukrainian forces may be unfamiliar with and that may require weeks of training.
Some military experts question whether the level of weaponry supplied will be seen as a provocation by Russia.
“Donbas is going to be a big reveal of western intentions,” Mathieu Boulègue, senior research fellow at Chatham House in London, said. “As the West expands the types of weapons it supplies, it will stress-test Russian thresholds of tolerance.”
Much more at the link!
Another major problem is that Germany keeps blocking weapons purchases. The Ukrainians keep making orders with German weapons manufacturers and suppliers and the Scholz government just keeps telling the companies they’re not allowed to fill them.
Which is why this is welcome news!
Ukrainians pilots familiar w/ drone ops would not be “starting from scratch” in learning how to fly them, said @GeneralAtomics spox C. Mark Brinkley.@OMarkarova's people confirm the meet but declined to say what they requested. They want to “surprise Russia on the battlefield.”
— Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) April 12, 2022
While I’d already seen this thread, Gin&Tonic sent it across and I think it is important we give it a read:
I will describe here who Ukrainians are and why they are resisting. This resistance has very deep historical roots, and are based upon a specific Ukrainian political culture. A thread 0/8
— Volodymyr Yermolenko (@yermolenko_v) April 12, 2022
- Ukrainian political culture is bottom-up and very decentralized. It starts from a community, which Ukrainians call “hromada”. Hromada – a key word for Ukrainian political philosophy since at least 19th century, f.e. philosophy of Mykhaylo Drahomanov 1/8
- Drahomanov, trained as historian of Ancient Greece and Rome, made his philosophy of hromada based upon Greek (Aristotelian) philosophy of a city/polis. For him, politics starts from a local community, state emerges as integration of these communities, “hromada of hromadas”. 2/8
- This is a sharp difference to Russian political culture which is centralized, and top-down. Unity of Russian politics is possible only around a tsar, a tyrant. In Ukraine, people are always opposed to a tsar. Zelensky is an anti-tsar: too close to the people, “one of us” 3/8
- Why Ukrainian army is successful now? Because this decentralized spirit coincides with the Western techniques of military organization that Ukraine has adopted in its cooperation with NATO. Ukrainian mid-level commanders have much more freedom to act than Russian commanders. 4/8
- Self-governance reform implemented since 2014 gave more powers to mayors. Mayors showed themselves positively now, organizing defense of cities. Interestingly this brings Ukraine closer to a medieval “princely” times of Kyivan Rus’, decentralized community of city-states 5/8
- A leitmotiv of Ukrainian literature, historiography, philosophy is opposition to the centralized idea of state and universe. Skovoroda, Shevchenko, Kostomarov, Drahomanov, Ukrainian socialists of early 20th century. The key idea was a) anti-autocracy, b) self-organization 6/8
- Also look at the spirit of freedom and emancipation of Ukrainian female writers, from Marko Vovchok to Lesia Ukrainka – female emancipation and anti-patriarchal trend was very early, in 19th century 7/8
- to conclude: this freedom-loving, decentralized, anti-tyrannical spirit was in Ukraine for centuries. This is very different from Russia. Naturally, Ukrainians understand that defending this modus vivendi is an existential fight 8/8
I think that’s enough for one night. And yes, I’m aware that the Ukrainians scarfed up Medvechuk today and that the Russians scarfed up Vladimir Kara-Murza, but since both of those have gotten a lot of news coverage, I figured I didn’t need to cover them in today’s update beyond this note.
So we’ll finish with your semi-daily Chef Jose Andres:
In the newly liberated city of Chernihiv north of Kyiv, hundreds of people were waiting for the @WCKitchen team today. Need for food is big & almost no aid reaches here…so we brought 1,300 hot meals & 500 bags with 15 kilos of food each for families to cook! #ChefsForUkraine ?? pic.twitter.com/tjmr6EK5Li
— José Andrés (@chefjoseandres) April 12, 2022
Kramatorsk is the end of the railway before occupied territory. And despite a missile strike that murdered 59 civilians, @WCKitchen lead Katya is not leaving. Her mission: to make sure nobody goes hungry as the city prepares for invasion. #ChefsForUkraine pic.twitter.com/cb1JsyaNck
— José Andrés (@chefjoseandres) April 12, 2022
Open thread!
War for Ukraine Update 47: Mariupol, Red Lines, and Secret Legal Memos With the Force of Law Are No Way To Run a Superpower
by Adam L Silverman| 150 Comments
This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine
We begin tonight with Mariupol above the jump. Earlier today reports began to circulate that the Russians had used a drone to deliver a chemical weapon attack on the Azov Regiment in Mariupol, where the regiment is most likely making its last stand. However, there is no independent confirmation yet, largely because there are no …
I’m just going to deal with a couple of quick items that popped up in comments last night or have become recurring in the comments. The first was in response to my including the reporting on Musk’s war profiteering and was in regard to what was going on between Musk and Twitter.
Musk, who is the subject of several ongoing SEC investigations, filed the wrong paperwork for his purchase of Twitter shares. He also filled the wrong paperwork out wrong too and filed it late. What he filed was the paperwork for someone who is just buying general shares, though a lot of them, but has no intention of being an activist investor. Meaning trying to either get on the board or take over the company. And Musk has a history of this, it is what he did with Tesla. He purchased it, forced out the owners, and took it over. Twitter’s response was to put him on the board. The reason for this is that as long as he was on the board he is not permitted to try to take over the company and force the current owners/leadership out. Basically Twitter’s current leadership was trying to block Musk. Musk, being Musk, immediately began acting like he had, in fact, taken over the company and was now running it. All the details on this are in these two threads from NYcitysouthpaw, which can be found here and here. Here’s a very quick visual explainer of the announcement from earlier today that he was not joining the board today:
A lot of people seem to have trouble parsing through corpo / legal / PR speak, so here's a helpful guide to the only two parts of this statement that matter: pic.twitter.com/k2lV2jV5Sh
— Dr. Bhaskar Ⓥ (@xbhaskarx) April 11, 2022
What I expect we’ll see now is a full fledged push by Musk to buy more shares of Twitter and then do what he’s really good at: taking over the company, pushing the current leadership out, and remaking it in his own bugfuck nuts image.
The second item I want to just briefly deal with is Rene Girard. For those not following along in the comments, he keeps coming up. Girard was a French epistemologist/philosopher of science/knowledge and a philosopher of language. Basically he did deep exegesis on the foundational texts of the ideas that interested him and then attempted to deconstruct and explain them in his own writings on the topic. He is best known in American academia for his late 1980s book on religious violence entitled The Scapegoat. Girard’s basic thesis is that all of human behavior is based on learning through observation beginning when one is an infant. Basically mimicry. He refers to this as mimetic theory and in The Scapegoat he posited that all socio-political violence, whether religious or not, was mimicry rooted in the biblical tales of scapegoats – Cain, Longinus/the Wandering Jew – which are themselves rooted in the concept of Azazel the Passover/paschal scapegoat, and that they are used as a societal and political steam release safety valve to lower the pressure that would otherwise blow up the entire political, social, religious, and/or economic system of a given state and/or society.
Unfortunately, Girard is very hard to read. Part of that is because he wrote in his native French and then had his work translated into English and those translations are thick and hard to get through. As a result, his biggest American academic proponent, Mark Jurgensmeyer who wrote an article attempting to use Girard’s thesis and then a decade later a book attempting to explain religiously based terrorism, doesn’t understand Girard. Frankly, I know Jurgensmeyer and he doesn’t understand violence, terrorism, social science, empirical social science theories, and data either, so there may be a deeper issue here. However, Jurgensmeyer is a big deal and for a while Girard was all the rage. I have no idea if he still is, but if you’re wondering what these references in comments are about, now you know.
And people wonder why I left academia…
Here’s today’s British MOD assessment:
And here’s their latest map update:
Not too much change again. Though The Kyiv Independent, via their Twitter feed, has reported:
- Ukraine’s General Staff: Russian troops unsuccessfully try to move further into Ukraine. The offensive operations are taking place in Donetsk Oblast and in the south of Ukraine.
Earlier today Russia warned Sweden and Finland not to join NATO. From the BBC:
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that “the alliance remains a tool geared towards confrontation”.
It comes as US defence officials said Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine has been a “massive strategic blunder” which is likely to bring Nato enlargement.
US officials expect the Nordic neighbours to bid for membership of the alliance, potentially as early as June.
Washington is believed to support the move which would see the Western alliance grow to 32 members. US State Department officials said last week that discussions had taken place between Nato leaders and foreign ministers from Helsinki and Stockholm.
Before it launched its invasion, Russia demanded that the alliance agree to halt any future enlargement, but the war has led to the deployment of more Nato troops on its eastern flank and a rise in public support for Swedish and Finnish membership.
Finnish MPs are expected to receive a security report from intelligence officials this week, and Prime Minister Sanna Marin said she expects her government “will end the discussion before midsummer” on whether to make a membership application.
Finland shares a 1,340km (830 miles) long border with Russia and has been rattled by the invasion of Ukraine.
And Sweden’s ruling Social Democratic party, which has traditionally opposed Nato membership, said it is rethinking this position in light of Russia’s attack on its western neighbour. Party secretary Tobias Baudin told local media that the Nato review should be complete within the next few months.
“When Russia invaded Ukraine, Sweden’s security position changed fundamentally,” the party said in a statement on Monday.
But Moscow has been clear that it opposes any potential enlargement of the alliance. Mr Peskov warned the bloc “is not that kind of alliance which ensures peace and stability, and its further expansion will not bring additional security to the European continent”.
Last week Mr Peskov said that Russia would have to “rebalance the situation” with its own measures were Sweden and Finland to join Nato.
And in February Maria Zakharova, Russia’s foreign ministry spokeswoman, warned of “military and political consequences” if the countries joined the bloc.
Much more at the link.
I’m not thrilled with announcing it now, but having a sixty to ninety day delay before joining. Putin’s standard operating procedure in regard to any European nation not in NATO seeking to join NATO, especially ones that Russia believes it has some historical claim to, is to start a conflict with them. Which then puts NATO’s policy about not being able to accept members that have ongoing border disputes into effect. All Putin has to do is stick a couple of companies of Wagner’s little green men on the borders, cause some trouble, and do some nice, low key operations and Finland, Sweden, and NATO will suddenly have a major problem. By doing so he either shows NATO to be hypocritical vis-a-vis Ukraine and Georgia if they go ahead and admit Finland and Sweden under those conditions or he achieves the blocking function and prevents them from joining NATO. Either way he wins.
More from Mariupol:
The Mariupol garrison is having it extreme now.
Our guys are all alone, in a besieged ruined city, defending the last pockets next the main fortress, the AzovStal plant.
The situation not seen in Europe since Wold War II.
But the Azov Sea Steel is still holding on… pic.twitter.com/QAW8EKblbi— Illia Ponomarenko ?? (@IAPonomarenko) April 11, 2022
“Mariupol is the heart of this war today. It’s beating, we are fighting, we are strong. If it stops beating, our position [at the negotiation table with Russia] will get weaker. People [in Mariupol] have distracted a big chunk of the enemy forces”, Zelensky tells AP
— Myroslava Petsa (@myroslavapetsa) April 10, 2022
All my thoughts today are with Mariupol and its defenders. Russia has turned Mariupol into a hellscape and a graveyard just because it is a Ukrainian city. This video is painful to watch, but just imagine what people in Mariupol are going through. #StopRussianAgression pic.twitter.com/535CYuJ6Pa
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) April 11, 2022
Buzova: (WARNING: THIS IS UNSETTLING!!!!)
“Let me see! Let me see! SON!!!”
Add #Buzova near Kyiv to the long list of Russian atrocities in #Ukraine.#RussianWarCrimes #StandWithUkraine #ArmUkraineNow @RusBotWien @RusBotschaft pic.twitter.com/fMo2a7YR9G— olexander scherba?? (@olex_scherba) April 11, 2022
Bucha:
BUCHA, Ukraine — A mother killed by a sniper while walking with her family to fetch a thermos of tea. A woman held as a sex slave, naked except for a fur coat and locked in a potato cellar before being executed. Two sisters dead in their home, their bodies left slumped on the floor for weeks.
Bucha is a landscape of horrors.
From the first day of the war, Feb. 24, civilians bore the brunt of the Russian assault on Bucha, a few miles west of Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital. Russian special forces approaching on foot through the woods shot at cars on the road, and a column of armored vehicles fired on and killed a woman in her garden as they drove into the suburb.
But those early cruelties paled in comparison to what came after.
As the Russian advance on Kyiv stalled in the face of fierce resistance, civilians said, the enemy occupation of Bucha slid into a campaign of terror and revenge. When a defeated and demoralized Russian Army finally retreated, it left behind a grim tableau: bodies of dead civilians strewn on streets, in basements or in backyards, many with gunshot wounds to their heads, some with their hands tied behind their backs.
Reporters and photographers for The New York Times spent more than a week with city officials, coroners and scores of witnesses in Bucha, uncovering new details of execution-style atrocities against civilians. The Times documented the bodies of almost three dozen people where they were killed — in their homes, in the woods, set on fire in a vacant parking lot — and learned the story behind many of their deaths. The Times also witnessed more than 100 body bags at a communal grave and the city’s cemetery.
The evidence suggests the Russians killed recklessly and sometimes sadistically, in part out of revenge.
Unsuspecting civilians were killed carrying out the simplest of daily activities. A retired teacher known as Auntie Lyuda, short for Lyudmyla, was shot midmorning on March 5 as she opened her front door on a small side street. Her body lay twisted, half inside the door, more than a month later.
Much more at the link including lots of pictures.
Chernihiv:
All the bridges to Chernihiv had been blown up in heavy Russian bombing and the city was under a crippling siege but Tanya still managed to sneak out on a rowing boat through a secret route and head to Kyiv.
The 54-year-old only narrowly escaped death.
As she was scrambling onto the opposite bank of the Desna river, which cuts through the city, shelling struck nearby. She only avoided being shredded to pieces thanks to a nearby trench.
The aim of the dangerous journey was to help evacuate a group of elderly people but also to reach the capital to register and start fundraising for her new charity, which aimed to feed the bombarded city. To do this, she crept across the river, crossed the front line and weathered shelling and shooting – a daring undertaking she went through all over again on the way back from Kyiv.
Her task was urgent. People in Chernihiv were not only in danger of dying from a fierce air assault, but hunger and thirst. Tanya, an entrepreneur in her pre-war life, together with a pair of restaurant business owners and the head of a local charity in the city, worked out how to pool and maximise supplies within the city, and then later, how to sneak some in.
At one point they even dug a well to service thousands of people, with an industrial drill sourced from inside the city, despite everything being bombed and there being no electricity. They located and repurposed generators – also left behind – using their own car batteries for power.
“I was warned it was very dangerous but I took my chance,” says Tanya about her odyssey to Kyiv. She describes how the bodies of civilians who had been killed while fleeing littered the waters of the river.
“When I got to the other bank, we were heavily shelled. I was shelled on the way back too. But it was essential to get this charity up and running. People’s lives were at stake.”
Much, much, much more at the link!
Here’s a machine translation excerpt of the absolutely astonishing piece from Dmitry Trenin who is the director of the Carnegie Center for International Peace’s Moscow Center, Zhena Gogolya checked it for me and provided some commentary, which is in the brackets.
[Three important words here are “rossiiskii,” “russkii,” and “derzhava.” “Rossiiskii” and “russkii” are both translated as “Russian,” but rossiiskii refers to Rossiia, the state, not to the Russian ethnicity. “Derzhava” is translated by the machine as “power,” but it means “power” in the sense of “powerful state,” not power as strength or force, which would be “sila.” So I’m keeping these three words in Russian to avoid confusion.]The core of the rossiiskii civilization-derzhava are russkii people, with their language, culture, and religion, but the ethnic element within the framework of a unified civilization is not the defining element. On the contrary, the russkii community is open and accepts into its composition freely and on an equal basis not only individual representatives of other ethnicities but these ethnic groups as a whole. Tatars, Yakuts, Chechens, and the numerous ethnic groups of Dagestan can be and are russkii. Orthodox Christianity is the religion of the majority, but the tradition of religious tolerance allows for the peaceful coexistence and interaction of the basic indigenous confessions: Orthodoxy, Islam, Buddhism, and Judaism. The unified state ensures peace, well-being, and development in the huge territory from the Baltic to the Sea of Japan and from the Arctic to the Caspian Sea. It is precisely the common derzhava that is the most important value for this complex civilization.
But the state itself is based on a system of values without which it will collapse. The Rossiiskii Empire fell apart not so much under the influence of the difficulties of the World War as from the loss of faith and trust of the supreme power [vlast’]. The Soviet Union perished not so much as a result of shortages of goods in the stores as from the falsity of the official ideology, which departed more and more from real life.
For our current state to remain stable it must be “reissued” based on the principles of freedom and responsibility, social solidarity, administrative competence, practical partnership [he uses the word that usually means “complicity,” like in a crime, but I don’t think that’s what he intends] in governing, including the taking of the most important decisions.
In this connection the narod [Volk; no English equivalent because “people” is plural] of modern Russia must rethink itself and its country, figure out the bases of its self-consciousness and worldview, and determine where the russkii path should lead. Only under such conditions can the aims of policy as well as strategy and the means of their attainment be determined. The sum total of these aims, strategies, and means, can be united by the concept of the russkii idea. In short, one may designate the russkii idea as the Russkii truth — the basis of the worldview and the codex of fundamental principles, the central support of which is the imperative of justice.
Alongside justice, the central part of the russkii idea is the principle of equality. Russians do not consider themselves a chosen people, they don’t have the idea of themselves as an exceptional phenomenon. Russkiis are not special, they keep themselves on the same level as the representatives of other peoples, not higher, but also not lower. The russkii colonial experience was in principle a different one than that of the Western Europeans. In the Rossiiskii Empire, russkiis did not have a higher position than “inorodtsy” [people of other ethnicities within the Russian Empire; this statement is so ridiculously false], and in the Soviet Union the national republics enjoyed various privileges and preferential economic conditions of which the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic was deprived. At the same time, russkiis are not willing to accept being led by someone else. In russkii culture there is no place for racism [HAHAHA], and anti-Semitism — both by the state and in everyday life — was considered a shameful, reprehensible phenomenon. [hahaha] Russkii culture itself is open to the external world, its influences, which are adapted in a creative russkii reworking. [this is bad Dostoevsky]
Thus justice, equality, openness, and adaptability — while preserving inner integrity — make the russkii idea a reliable spiritual guide also for developing a strategy of foreign policy, especially in a period of a change in the world order. The russkii idea opens up the broadest possibilities for mutual understanding, respectful dialogue, and reasonable agreements with the presence of goodwill on both sides. As an idea of inner justice, external sovereignty, and peaceful good-neighborly coexistence, it may be appreciated by other peoples and civilizations.
Here we must emphasize that the russkii idea is intended precisely for russkii civilization, and not as an export product for the rest of the world. The attempt to formulate the idea in a universalist mode, as the associates of Mikhail Sergeevich Gorbachev did when they elaborated their new political thinking, is hopeless from the start and therefore senseless. The global world, in which the diffusion of the Western model has reached insurmountable limits, is more and more diverging into civilizational platforms, where each civilization has its own idea. The russkii idea will affect the rest of the world by the very fact of its realization in russkii society and in the policy of the Rossiiskii state.
One does not have to invent the russkii idea, it must be rethought for the modern stage of development. German communism, and then American neoliberalism, obscured for many generations of russkii people the legacy of our own philosophers, writers, and historians — from Pushkin and Chaadaev to the Slavophiles and Westernizers to the religious philosophers and Eurasianists. Now this legacy of the past, which we have in many ways not worked through, is in particular demand in order for our meditations on the past and future to acquire depth. This is not about returning in our thoughts and actions to a hundred or two hundred years ago, but about finding a reliable foothold for our movement forward.
If you want to read the rest click across and use your browser’s/operating system’s machine translation program to read it.
Here’s a fascinating thread about what may or may not be going on in Belarus:
A few words about the resistance of Belarusians to the Russian aggression in Ukraine.
Thread. pic.twitter.com/IUY8MxbfO4
— Pavel Slunkin (@PavelSlunkin) April 10, 2022
- 1/ After 2020 and an unprecedented wave of repressions, several hundred thousand people have left Belarus. Thousands are in prison for political reasons (see the map) [Adam here: click the tweet above to see the map and other graphics in the thread.]
- 2/ Torture and beatings that shocked the world in August 2020 have not disappeared. They have become even more cruel and large-scale. Some political prisoners tried to kill themselves right during the trial: by slitting their stomach or piercing neck with a ballpoint pen
- 3/ The last mass protests were crushed back in January 2021. Propaganda/state TV calls for the killing of opponents. However, Lukashenka has not become more popular (having about 30% support). His power rests on Kremlin’s support, loyal police and nomenklatura + total repression
- 4/ In 2021, civil society was almost completely destroyed in Belarus. Even organizations that were involved in protecting the rights of disabled people, ecology and biodiversity were liquidated. Leaders arrested or fled.
- 5/ In such conditions, the war found Belarusian society. The illegitimate Lukashenka has made Belarus a co-aggressor state, and its citizens are seen as traitors and occupants by the international community.
- 6/ Independent polls show that only 3% of Belarusians want the Belarusian army to enter the war with Ukraine on the side of Russia.
- 7/ Since the beginning of the war, more than 1,500 people have been arrested for anti-war actions. A broad partisan movement has revived in Belarus, which has been a symbol of the country since WW2. Partisans risk their lives. Some of them are shot, others are arrested
- 8/ This is a map of railroad sabotage actions. The partisans have been blocking the movement of Russian military equipment to Ukraine by rail. Russia had to switch to air transport because of this
9/ Belarusian cyberpartisans attack databases and train management systems, websites of state institutions, etc.@cpartisans- 10/ Belarusians massively share information about the deployment and movement of Russian troops and equipment. Information about the departures of Russian war planes is immediately published. This allows the Ukrainian air defense systems and the army to be ready for attacks
- 11/ Several Belarusian battalions are fighting for the freedom of Ukraine. They are the first national battalions in the Ukrainian army. Belarusian soldiers died, including defending Bucha.
- 12/ Belarusians have created dozens of initiatives to support the Ukrainian army and Ukrainian refugees. Thanks to them, the Ukrainian army has received some new vehicles and weapons, they help refugees financially and provide medical, psychological support and service assistance
- 13/ An important feature is that these initiatives are predominantly in exile since 2020. They are led by the same people who have proven themselves 2 years ago.
- 14/ But even inside Belarus, despite police persecution, Belarusians help Ukrainian refugees: they provide them with free services, help with housing, evacuation to the EU, and collect money for them.
- 15/ Anti-war sentiment and resistance actions are one of the reasons why Lukashenka has not yet sent the Belarusian army to Ukraine. End.
I did not like John Mearsheimer’s body of work when I had to read him in grad school. I did not like his body of work when I had to teach it. And the more experience I’ve gotten working in national security I’ve liked his body of work less and less.
John Mearsheimer, speaking 4 days ago, questions
Russia's responsibility for civilian deaths in Ukraine: "You talked about Putin targeting civilians, or the Russians targeting civilians. It’s obviously very hard to tell what’s exactly happened here." https://t.co/IiEasn0IzQ 1/5— Dylan Primakoff (@DylanPrimakoff) April 11, 2022
- “But with that caveat in mind, you want to remember that the Americans have been pushing to arm civilians in Ukraine and to tell those civilians to fight against the Russians. So by definition, in lots of the firefights that have taken place and will take place…” 2/5
- “Russians are going to be fighting against civilians because those civilians are fighting against the Russians. So just remember, this is a very complicated business.” It should go without saying – this is disturbingly detached from the reality of this war under discussion. 3/5
- These comments show that Mearsheimer is either unaware of or rejects the exhaustively documented reports of widespread Russian atrocities against unarmed Ukrainian civilians. It seems that whatever information he is getting about this conflict is seriously off base. 4/5
- There are reasonable disagreements about the general explanatory value of Mearsheimer’s theories, but I think this inexcusable denial of the unambiguous facts of Russian war crimes in Ukraine and completely discredits his broader analysis on this conflict. 5/5
- If anything, the context makes it even worse. Another speaker made a passing remark earlier in the panel about Russia targeting civilians, and Mearsheimer apparently felt the need to return to the issue in his closing remarks to “set the record straight.”
- I’m not in any way shape or form a Mearsheimer defender, but this quote is not nearly as bad in context.
Tell me you don’t know anything about Irish or European history without telling me you don’t know anything about Irish or European history!
This video shows why Eastern Europeans have been so frustrated for years with Western Europeans who just don’t understand what Russia is & how it works.
Irish MEP tells a Bulgarian MEP in the European Parliament that peace can only come through diplomacy. pic.twitter.com/nQKtgBNi3R
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) April 10, 2022
We are, apparently, having some issues with where we stand on dealing with Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine. From The New York Times (emphasis mine):
WASHINGTON — The Biden administration is vigorously debating how much the United States can or should assist an investigation into Russian atrocities in Ukraine by the International Criminal Court in The Hague, according to officials familiar with internal deliberations.
The Biden team strongly wants to see President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and others in his military chain of command held to account. And many are said to consider the court — which was created by a global treaty two decades ago as a venue for prosecuting war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide — the body most capable of achieving that.
But laws from 1999 and 2002, enacted by a Congress wary that the court might investigate Americans, limit the government’s ability to provide support. And the United States has long objected to any exercise of jurisdiction by the court over citizens of countries that are not part of the treaty that created it — like the United States, but also Russia.
The internal debate, described by senior administration officials and others familiar with the matter on the condition of anonymity, has been partly shaped by a previously undisclosed 2010 memo by the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel. Obtained by The New York Times, the memo interprets the scope and limits of permissible cooperation with the court.
Much more at the link!
The Office of Legal Counsel should be required by law to post each and every one of its memos, which function as a shadow system of laws/legal system for the Executive Branch, so that everyone can know what a bunch of unelected people have determined the law is or is not despite what the law actually says!
Your daily bayraktar:
The #Russian Ka52 helicopter blasted at a Russian airbase by #Ukrainian TB-2 Bayraktar Drones. pic.twitter.com/aG187UxRyF
— Daily Turkic (@DailyTurkic) April 8, 2022
And your daily Bayraktar:
— Oriannalyla ?? (@Lyla_lilas) April 10, 2022
Open thread!
War for Ukraine Update 46: A Brief Update for Today
by Adam L Silverman| 53 Comments
This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine
Innocently killed Ukrainians for whom “tomorrow" will never come.Video from the "Volunteer Animation of Ukraine".#RussianWarCrimes pic.twitter.com/VTwbVwa0Dn — Oleksandra Matviichuk (@avalaina) April 6, 2022 I’m going to keep tonight’s update very brief. To update from last night, I’ve seen reports that Russian soldier Aleksey Bychkov has been arrested or detained in Russia. I’ve yet to see …
War for Ukraine Update 46: A Brief Update for TodayPost + Comments (53)
Everyone’s favorite nutbag investor turned Internet troll, Elon Musk, has decided that in addition to trying to remake Twitter in his own image for fun and profits, especially profits, that he’d try his hand at war profiteering. From The Washington Post:
Elon Musk’s SpaceX to dispatch their Starlink terminals to the region to boost Internet access. “Starlink service is now active in Ukraine. More terminals en route,” Musk replied to broad online fanfare.
Since then, the company has cast the actions in part as a charitable gesture. “I’m proud that we were able to provide the terminals to folks in Ukraine,” SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell said at a public event last month, later telling CNBC, “I don’t think the U.S. has given us any money to give terminals to the Ukraine.”
But according to documents obtained by The Technology 202, the U.S. federal government is in fact paying millions of dollars for a significant portion of the equipment and for the transportation costs to get it to Ukraine.
On Tuesday, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) announced it has purchased more than 1,330 terminals from SpaceX to send to Ukraine, while the company donated nearly 3,670 terminals and the Internet service itself.
While the agency initially called it a “private sector donation valued at roughly $10 million,” it did not specify how much it is contributing for the equipment or for the cost of transportation. Sometime after the announcement, the agency removed key details from its release. It now states that USAID “has delivered 5,000 Starlink Terminals” to Ukraine “through a public-private partnership” with SpaceX but does not specify the quantity nor value of the donations.
USAID agreed to purchase closer to 1,500 standard Starlink terminals for $1,500 apiece and to pay an additional $800,000 for transportation costs, documents show, adding up to over $3 million in taxpayer dollars paid to SpaceX for the equipment sent to Ukraine.
In a letter to SpaceX last month outlining the deal, the USAID mission director to Ukraine said the terminals would be “procured” and sent on behalf of USAID by a third-party contractor, which would “arrange for transportation and delivery of the equipment” from Los Angeles International Airport to Ukraine via Poland.
The letter said the nearly 3,670 terminals donated by SpaceX would come with three months of “unlimited data.” In addition to the more than 1,330 terminals that USAID confirmed it had purchased, the agency earlier agreed to buy a separate 175 units from SpaceX, according to the documents.
On Thursday, USAID spokesperson Rebecca Chalif said in a statement that the “delivery of Starlink terminals were made possible by a range of stakeholders, whose combined contributions valued over $15 million and facilitated the procurement, international flights, ground transportation, and satellite Internet service of 5,000 Starlink terminals.”
The agency declined to answer questions about how much USAID funding is going toward buying and transporting equipment for Ukraine, referring them to SpaceX. SpaceX did not return a request for comment on the arrangement and the specific financials of the deal.
It is also unclear whether the price the U.S. government is paying for individual Starlink units matches their typical market price.
USAID is paying $1,500 for each standard terminal and the accompanying service, documents show. According to the Starlink website, a standard terminal set costs $600, while the monthly service charge costs $110, plus an additional $100 for shipping and handling.
According to The Verge, Starlink recently unveiled a separate premium service that prices the equipment at $2,500 and the monthly Internet charge at $500, but it remains unclear whether that is what Ukraine has received. SpaceX did not return a request for comment on the pricing.
The revelations show that while SpaceX appears to have donated a significant sum to Ukraine’s cause, it has done so with public assistance.
The United States and other countries have paid to send much of the known equipment to Ukraine. The transportation costs USAID has paid to ship the 5,000 terminals exceeds $800,000, according to the documents. French officials confirmed they also helped with transportation.
Much, much more at the link!
I’m a defense and intel contractor/consultant. I understand how this all works. I have no problem with Musk donating a bunch. I have no problem with him also then turning around and selling a bunch of them when the donated number was insufficient. What pisses me off, what is absolutely waste, fraud, and abuse, is the charging the US taxpayer almost three times the price for the units compared to what would have happened if the government had just ordered them at retail!
The nicest thing you can say about Musk is that he’s not as bad as Peter Thiel, Mark Zuckerberg, or Jared Kushner.
Exiled Belarusian opposition leader, and likely rightful Belarusian president, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is trying to bring down Lukashenko’s regime in Minsk.
It might have seemed that life could not have got any worse for the people of Belarus, long Europe’s most repressive country. Then, in February, their homeland was used by Vladimir Putin as a launchpad for his assault on Ukraine, turning them into unwilling accomplices in his bloody and increasingly disastrous war.
Belarus’s jails have since filled with even more political prisoners — there are now as many as 4,000 by some counts — while the brutal regime headed by Aleksandr Lukashenko, 67, in power since 1994, has taken to airing confessions by “saboteurs” beaten and even kneecapped by police.
Yet Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, 39, the opposition leader seen by many as the rightful winner of the rigged August 2020 election that gave Lukashenko a sixth term as president, sees cause for optimism amid the misery and bloodshed. The war, she believes, could give a final push to the veteran Belarusian strongman — helped by an underground “partisan” war that is beginning to be waged against his government.
“Lukashenko is in a very fragile and weak position,” the former interpreter and teacher told me last week from Vilnius, the capital of neighbouring Lithuania, where she is rallying opposition to his rule. “He’s a puppet of the Kremlin, a vassal; he’s an accomplice, a collaborator.
“For 27 years he played West and East, but now he doesn’t have a way out of the situation. He could have started talking with his own people and releasing political prisoners and together we could have resisted the pressure from Russia to use Belarusian territory for the invasion.
“Much depends on the outcome of the war,” she added, speaking by video link in the near-flawless English she first used when she visited rural Ireland as a 12-year-old, courtesy of a charity that arranged holidays for children from areas affected by fallout from the Chernobyl nuclear plant that enveloped much of Belarus.
“But if the Ukrainians win, as we think they will, it will make his regime much weaker, and there will be a moment when he will have no way out but to give up. There could be different scenarios: people within the nomenklatura [the ruling elite] will see he has lost authority and there could be a coup d’état. Or there could be an uprising by the Belarusian people.”
Much, much more at the link.
Mariupol:
Mariupol, Italian street pic.twitter.com/YhKpBEqtjn
— UkraineWorld (@ukraine_world) April 10, 2022
“Mariupol is the heart of this war today. It’s beating, we are fighting, we are strong. If it stops beating, our position [at the negotiation table with Russia] will get weaker. People [in Mariupol] have distracted a big chunk of the enemy forces”, Zelensky tells AP
— Myroslava Petsa (@myroslavapetsa) April 10, 2022
Hostomel:
One more family was shot dead by russian animals during their evacuation from #Hostomel. Their car was found in the forest. Baby clothes and a pack of diapers inside. A bundle of blanket fell under the seat – that's probably the child #BuchaMassacre #Irpin #WarCrimes pic.twitter.com/wcmFQaUiSZ
— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) April 10, 2022
Borodyanka:
Borodyanka today. An absolute tragedy pic.twitter.com/OMLF8eoEuv
— Anastasiia Lapatina (@lapatina_) April 10, 2022
Kharkiv:
These children have been living in the Kharkiv subway for 45 days. We must win this war for them too. pic.twitter.com/vo2hAdPPB8
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) April 10, 2022
Bucha:
#Bucha.
Exhumation of bodies from a mass grave near St. Andrew Church on its way.
Prosecutor General of #Ukraine says that 67 people were buried in it, most of them have gunshot wounds and shrapnel wounds from explosions by #Russian invaders.#BuchaMassacre #StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/0d3FU4jVsA— Emine Dzheppar (@EmineDzheppar) April 9, 2022
Melitopol:
From The Guardian:
The sun was shining in Zaporizhzhia on Saturday and teams of city workers were out planting flowers on roadside borders. Market stalls were doing a healthy trade in everything from food and drink to electronics, and there were even a few cafes and bars open.
But the frontlines are barely a half-hour drive from this industrial city, and much of the region of which it is the capital is under Russian occupation. Underneath the calm exterior, most people here – and across the southern and eastern parts of Ukraine – are anxious about what lies in wait in the coming days and weeks.
The battle for Donbas will not just be a battle for that territory, it will be a battle for global security,” said Ivan Fedorov, the mayor of Melitopol, a city south of Zaporizhzhia that came under occupation in the first days of the war.
Fedorov, who was kidnapped by Russian soldiers and eventually swapped in a prisoner exchange, now works from an office in Zaporizhzhia. After a week in which news of horrific war crimes in Bucha and other small towns near Kyiv has shocked the world, Fedorov’s demeanour in an interview with the Observer was characteristic of a new Ukrainian resolve to continue fighting the Russian assault.
“We should not talk about half measures. Today, all the red lines are crossed. Thousands of peaceful citizens have been killed,” said Fedorov, frequently breaking off to field calls on two different phones about continued evacuations from occupied Melitopol.
He reacted angrily to a question about whether Ukraine should still attempt to negotiate a peace settlement: “Bucha has been obliterated, fucking obliterated. And you think we’re going to agree to half measures?”
This sentiment is widely shared and suggests the battle for Donbas could be long and bloody, involving a more focused and determined Russian attack force, as well as a rejuvenated and vengeful Ukrainian army, fighting on terrain where the war has been continuing for the past eight years.
Fedorov said cities such as Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro had the advantage of having time to prepare for a spirited defence. “Melitopol wasn’t ready,” he said.
The Russian army took control of Melitopol and a number of other cities in the south of Ukraine in the first days of the war without much of a fight. A few days after the Russians took over Melitopol, a group of armed men Fedorov assumed were from Russia’s security services arrived at his office and said he could keep working as long as he accepted Russian control over the city.
“They said Melitopol is Russia, and that we could keep doing what we were doing, but we should recognise that they are now in charge of the security of the city,” he recalled.
Melitopol is a largely Russian-speaking city and many people there, including Fedorov, have relatives in Russia. But he said the vast majority of the city is now solidly pro-Ukrainian, and this has only intensified since the Russian invasion.
Fedorov, and almost everyone in his team, refused to cooperate with the Russians, he said, leading them to become ever more irate, especially when demonstrators with Ukrainian flags began taking to the streets.
“These rallies were the final straw for the Russians and they decided to take me prisoner. In broad daylight, they came to the social assistance centre we’d set up on the first day, where we gave out food and clothes, tied my hands together and put a bag over my head, and marched me out,” he recalled.
Much, much, much more at the link!
NEW: Russia is sending an 8-mi long convoy of 100s of vehicles, including armored vehicles and artillery southbound through the Ukrainian town of Velykyi Burluk.
The convoy is moving about 60 mi east of Ukraine’s 2nd-largest city of Kharkiv, as ?? focuses on Donbas.
?:@Maxar pic.twitter.com/4EJRHSQZvk
— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) April 10, 2022
I expect that not all of them will arrive alive.
I’m waiting for confirmation from Cole, but it seems that Steve may have joined the International Legion!!!!
— Anastasiia Lapatina (@lapatina_) April 10, 2022
And we’ll finish with this:
In one of the liberated villages, a dog found #Ukrainian soldiers and brought them into the house, to their puppies, to be fed. pic.twitter.com/PUg4fUPs7Z
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) April 10, 2022
Open thread!
War for Ukraine Update 45: BoJo Pays a Visit, There Seems To Be Some Confusion About What Is and Is Not an Offensive Weapon, and the Most Heinous of War Crimes
by Adam L Silverman| 88 Comments
This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Military, Open Threads, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine
(Image by Olga Wilson; found here) British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, paid a visit to President Zelenskyy in Kyiv today. Which I’m sure made his security detail just thrilled!!!! Here’s the video of their press conference, which includes English translation for President Zelenskyy’s remarks: And here’s video of the tour of (parts of) Kyiv that …
Yesterday, before his trip to Kyiv, Prime Minister Johnson stated in a joint press conference with German Chancellor Scholtz that Britain would only be sending defensive weapons to Ukraine:
Instead, the U.K. will send £100 million of defensive military equipment to Ukraine, including more Starstreak anti-aircraft missiles, and another 800 anti-tank missiles.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 9, 2022
Today, however, we finally got confirmation from a legitimate, non-pseudonymous source – Politico’s defense reporter – that Britain is, in fact, sending harpoon anti-ship missiles to Ukraine:
NEW: confirming the UK is sending Harpoon anti-ship missiles to Ukraine. Huge move, can do serious damage to Russian warships.
— Paul McLeary (@paulmcleary) April 9, 2022
So there seems to be some confusion on just what counts as offensive versus defensive weaponry and weapon systems. And, of course, the additional financial and military aide that Johnson promised to Ukraine today during his visit is in addition to what was referenced at yesterday’s press conference. Given that Slovakia is sending a S-300 air defense system and the Czech Republic is sending tanks and armored vehicles, your guess is as good as mine as to what the distinction is between offensive and defensive weapons in this policy that the NATO members have developed. If I had to guess, it is anything that can be used from within Ukraine to defend Ukraine, but would not be of much use if Ukraine decided to try to attack across the border into Russia.
The Australians are also sending Bushmaster vehicles to Ukraine. The Bushmaster is basically the Australian version of the MRAP.
The Australian Government confirmed on Friday that it has provided further support to the Government of Ukraine by gifting 20 Bushmaster Protected Mobility Vehicles, including two ambulance variants, to aid the Government of Ukraine’s response to Russia’s unrelenting and illegal aggression.
Australia’s response follows a direct request from President Zelenskyy during his address to a joint sitting of the Parliament of Australia on 31 March 2022.
The Bushmaster Protected Mobility Vehicle was built in Australia to provide protected mobility transport, safely moving soldiers to a battle area prior to dismounting for close combat. The Bushmaster Protected Mobility Vehicle is well suited to provide protection to the Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers and Ukrainian civilians against mines and improvised explosive devices, shrapnel from artillery and small arms fire.
The 20 vehicles have been painted olive green to suit the operating environment.
Additionally, a Ukrainian flag is painted on either side with the words “United with Ukraine” stencilled in English and Ukrainian to acknowledge our commitment and support to the Government and people of Ukraine. The ambulances will have the traditional red cross emblem.
The Bushmaster Protected Mobility Vehicles will be fitted with radios, a global positioning system and additional bolt-on armour increasing their protection.
Pictures of the Bushmasters at the link.
The Ukrainians have put up an interactive web site to document Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine and against Ukrainians.
While we’re on war crimes, I’m going to post one of the most heinous ones I’ve seen or heard. I’m not posting the audio/video or the link to it, just a very basic description and the picture of the perpetrator who has already been identified by the Ukrainians and I’m sure is on their high value target list. This is UNPLEASANT SO IF YOU HAVE TROUBLE WITH DESCRIPTIONS OF HORRIFIC CRIMES PLEASE JUMP TO THE NEXT SECTION!!!!
A Russian soldier named Alexei Bychkov has posted a Telegram video in which he rapes an infant. The cruelty is beyond what many of us think is possible.
This will continue to happen as long as Russian gas is pumped into German cars.
— Gary Shteyngart (@Shteyngart) April 9, 2022
This is the Russian soldier, Alexei Bychkov, who has filmed himself raping a Ukrainian child. https://t.co/FNsWwplyjN
— Slava Malamud ?? (@SlavaMalamud) April 9, 2022
The translation from the tweet that Slava Malamud is retweeting is:
!!! Attention. Russian serviceman Aleksey Alexandrovich Bychkov. Pedophile and rapist. Films the abuse of children and throws it off to his friends and colleagues.
FOR THOSE JUMPING TO THE NEXT SECTION; THIS IS THE NEXT SECTION!!!! NOT THAT IT IS A LOT LESS GRIM!
Bucha:
The Bucha mass grave yesterday.
The police and forensic experts had exhumed nearly 20 dead bodies, including 2 military.
In total, the pit has nearly 67 bodies that will be identified, examined, and buried again. pic.twitter.com/yWF79d6zXA— Illia Ponomarenko ?? (@IAPonomarenko) April 9, 2022
#Bucha, Apple Street.144 Russian soldiers set up a real torture chamber. Survivors said, Chechen HQ was there. They shot people in the face, burned eyes, cut off body parts, tortured adults, kids.Authorities found 360 bodies so far, incl 10 children,ombudsman said.#BuchaMassacre
— Alexander Khrebet/Олександр Хребет (@AlexKhrebet) April 9, 2022
Kharkiv:
Now I am often asked whether there will be a new attack on Kharkiv. The answer is yes. For 45 days, there was not a single day when the city was not shelled. Will Russia succeed this time? The answer is no. Ukraine is more prepared, but we need more weapons to stop the aggressor. pic.twitter.com/vxWc5Q1n9h
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) April 9, 2022
Makariv:
⚡️ Mayor: Russian troops shot 132 civilians in Makariv.
Makariv Head Vadym Tokar added that 40% of the town was destroyed by shelling. Makariv, a town of 10,000 people 50 kilometers west of Kyiv, was liberated by Ukrainian Armed Forces on March 22.
?: @AnnaMyroniuk pic.twitter.com/XqvjrotrqM
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 8, 2022
Chernihiv:
Visited Chernihiv today with my colleague @AnnaMyroniuk, the city and its suburbs are severely damaged by Russian air strikes.
The Mayor says 700 people were killed during siege.
Read our story soon in the @KyivIndependent. pic.twitter.com/4FHIgjB729
— Oleksiy Sorokin (@mrsorokaa) April 9, 2022
Today our reporters went to Chernihiv, a regional capital in northern Ukraine, that was besieged for 21 days while being heavily bombarded.
This is our @mrsorokaa speaking from the sites of Russian attacks: pic.twitter.com/c0DDGiR12c
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 9, 2022
Luhansk Oblast:
The #russian army again bombed a tank with poisonous nitric acid. This isn't the first time that they are poisoning people in #Luhansk region.
Now we need more weapons to protect our people not only from shelling, artillery & air attacks but also from chemical weapons… pic.twitter.com/YqYAbYknhr
— Inna Sovsun (@InnaSovsun) April 9, 2022
Mariupol:
“Sometimes hope returns to me. But sometimes it leaves, and I think that we are all going to die,” says Anastasiia Kiseliova, a 40-year-old mother of three, as she walks through the streets of Mariupol, voice-recording herself on an iPhone.
“The city is gone,” she adds, her voice trembling. She bursts into tears seconds later.
Kiseliova’s hometown, Mariupol, once populated by nearly half a million Ukrainians, was razed to the ground by the Russian army. Ceaseless bombardment and shelling didn’t leave a single building untouched, local authorities said. Thousands have already been killed by Russian attacks or even starvation and dehydration, as Russia’s blockade left the city without any utilities, food, or water.
Despite Ukraine’s continuous efforts to evacuate Mariupol citizens, over 100,000 civilians remain trapped in the city.
“Every day and night we have spent in the cellar,” Kiseliova says in the video, a few seconds after a round of explosions is heard in the background. “We cried, prayed, and really wanted to survive.”
She will later pass those recordings to the Kyiv Independent during an interview arranged at a Lviv-based beauty salon, where she took her children for skin treatment after finally escaping Mariupol. Her daughter, 17-year-old Kristina, developed acne after experiencing trauma and stress. Seven-year-old Kostya, the son, had irritation on his hands for all the same reasons.
Kiseliova’s district of Mariupol, Prymorskyi, was under attacks from day one, when Russia launched a full-scale offensive against Ukraine on Feb. 24.
“Schools, apartments, private houses, they dropped bombs on everything,” she recalled.
Together with her three children and other family members, Kiseliova spent a week in a cellar under her house.
A large missile hit their property, sliding under the house, but not exploding. Another missile hit their neighbors’ yard. The family made a decision to leave, driving over to Kiseliova’s parents.
For two weeks, her husband, who is working abroad, thought that his wife and children were dead. All communications in the city have been shut since early March, meaning that many thousands of Ukrainians with friends and family in Mariupol have no way of knowing if they are alive.
All over Ukraine, the Russian military showed no mercy to civilians and civilian infrastructure, deliberately targeting populated areas.
One time, when around a hundred civilians lined up for bread near a local shop, a missile hit right into the crowd, killing an unknown number of people, Kiseliova said. She saw three dead bodies.
Trying to escape Mariupol on March 17, Kiseliova joined a column of civilian cars that moved towards the outskirts of the city. For hours, she drove her three children, as well as her oldest son’s girlfriend, to safety, maneuvering between unexploded missiles and hundreds of mines that were scattered through roads and fields.
At all Russian checkpoints, soldiers seemed to be extremely polite first, Kiseliova said. “They offered us water and bread, as if to make themselves look like liberators.”
Her daughter Kristina quickly corrected her.
“But they smirked,” the girl said. “They laughed at us.”
The next day, as evacuating cars carefully moved through a mined field just outside Mariupol, near an abandoned village of Kamianka, Russians shelled the convoy.
“They shelled cars that had signs that said ‘children’,” Kiseliova said. “One car was burned down, five people were injured. One girl had surgery performed right in the field.”
After crossing into Ukrainian territory, the family eventually made their way to Lviv, a regional capital in western Ukraine that has become the main destination for internally displaced Ukrainians flocking from the east, south and north.
Much, much more at the link!
The Azov Battalion is not going to give up Mariupol:
#Ukraine: A claimed Russian mortar position was hit in #Mariupol by Azov fire, leading to the detonation of ammunition and the destruction of two trucks. pic.twitter.com/J77Q6KqJJP
— ?? Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) April 9, 2022
Chornobyl:
From The New York Times:
CHERNOBYL, Ukraine — As the staging ground for an assault on the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, one of the most toxic places on earth, was probably not the best choice. But that did not seem to bother the Russian generals who took over the site in the early stages of the war.
“We told them not to do it, that it was dangerous, but they ignored us,” Valeriy Simyonov, the chief safety engineer for the Chernobyl nuclear site, said in an interview.
Apparently undeterred by safety concerns, the Russian forces tramped about the grounds with bulldozers and tanks, digging trenches and bunkers — and exposing themselves to potentially harmful doses of radiation lingering beneath the surface.
In a visit to the recently liberated nuclear station, site of the world’s worst nuclear disaster in 1986, wind blew swirls of dust along the roads, and scenes of disregard for safety were everywhere, though Ukrainian nuclear officials say no major radiation leak was triggered by Russia’s month long military occupation.
At just one site of extensive trenching a few hundred yards outside the town of Chernobyl, the Russian army had dug an elaborate maze of sunken walkways and bunkers. An abandoned armored personnel carrier sat nearby.
The soldiers had apparently camped out for weeks in the radioactive forest. While international nuclear safety experts say they have not confirmed any cases of radiation sickness among the soldiers, the cancers and other potential health problems associated with radiation exposure might not develop until decades later.
The earthworks were not the only instance of recklessness in the treatment of a site so toxic it still holds the potential to spread radiation well beyond Ukraine’s borders.
In a particularly ill-advised action, a Russian soldier from a chemical, biological and nuclear protection unit picked up a source of cobalt-60 at one waste storage site with his bare hands, exposing himself to so much radiation in a few seconds that it went off the scales of a Geiger counter, Mr. Simyonov said. It was not clear what happened to the man, he said.
I’m not a nuclear physicist, chemist, and/or engineer and I certainly don’t play one at Balloon Juice, but I’m just going to say that that would seem to be bad!
Much more Russian stupidity and/or carelessness in regard to Chornobyl at the link.
Once again our Antipodean antiquities aficionado, The Mighty Trowel, sent along this interesting article about trying to preserve Ukrainian heritage – from sites to actual items – while the war is ongoing. This is the English translation she provided as the original is in Ukrainian:
He saves Ukraine’s cultural heritage from the bombs
Until just over two years ago, archaeologist Fedir Androshchuk lived in Sweden. Now he is in war-torn Ukraine to stop valuable museum collections from being bombed.
“In my world, it would be strange to resign because it is a war. Someone has to organize and lead protection measures and evacuation ”.
It writes Fedir Androshcuck, director of the National Museum of Ukraine in Kyiv, when Magazine K reaches him it is via Facebook. He’s traveling. His whereabouts are secret – just like the details of his mission.
Fedir Androshchuk is leading the work to protect as much as possible of the National Museum’s 800,000 objects from being destroyed in the war. At first he slept in the museum’s basement, while he, together with about twenty others, worked on packing the objects to the sound of constant flight alarms.
“The situation was very unstable, the development was unclear and the goal was to dismantle all the exhibitions to avoid possible damage from air bombings,” writes Fedir Androshchuk.
However, the hope of protecting everything has been dashed during the war.
“It would be impossible. We have managed to evacuate the most valuable parts of our collections. There is a priority list that helps us organize the work, ”writes Fedir Androshchuk, without being able to go into more detail on what has been prioritized for safety reasons.
Until 2020 , the Viking archaeologist Fedir Androshchuk had worked in Sweden for more than 20 years, including at the Upplands Museum, with which he still has close contact. When Androshchuk was given a five-year contract by the Ministry of Culture of Ukraine, his wife and children remained in Sweden.
He had not expected that the job would mean trying to secure the country’s cultural heritage in war. But, as Fedir Androshcuck describes it, someone has to do it – protecting museum collections is important because at the same time protecting the identity of the people and the country.
“Cultural heritage is a country’s biography and experience , which are worth teaching. This is the central museum in the country that illuminates the history of Ukraine from ancient times to the present. It is no coincidence that conquests of statues, obelisks and relics took place in ancient times. It is part of the identification when you conquer a country “, writes Fedir Androshchuk and continues:
“We see something similar in the museum collections founded by colonial Russia that hold cultural treasures of all colonized countries, even Ukraine. A new war poses a new danger to Ukraine’s cultural heritage. ”
Fedir Androschcuk states that the museum employees in Ukraine who do not do military service work around the country to protect the threatened cultural treasures in secret places. The work is dangerous and takes place largely online in the form of contacts with other countries. According to the museum director, he has had great help from his former homeland Sweden. The Nordic Museum Foundation’s fundraising for Ukraine’s museums , among other things, has generated one million Swedish kronor which is now used to support the preservation of Ukraine’s history.
The Swedish National Heritage Board Joakim Malmström is in constant contact with Fedir Androschuk, and has also initiated a statement from the EHHF, a co-operation body for directors general of cultural heritage authorities in Europe, which demands that Russia respect international conventions to protect cultural heritage.
“Swedish museums, companies and individuals have made an enormous contribution. Ukraine has a common history with the Nordic countries that stretches all the way to the Viking Age and the early Middle Ages, “writes Fedir Androshchuk, who points out that he is very grateful for the Nordic countries’ contributions.
Fedir Androshchuk can not comment on how the work will continue.
“But when it comes to jobs in these circumstances, personal responsibility is the most crucial.”
As someone who was involved with trying to help ensure the US Army did not even accidentally damage Iraqi heritage sights, I can tell you from first hand experience that this is not an easy job to do. Not because the US Army didn’t care, but because war doesn’t always stay contained to the places that you want it to stay.
And we’ll end it with your daily Bayraktar!
My son brought from Kyiv a big package of doggy food for our special puppy Bayraktar. Here is Bayraktar and his treasure? pic.twitter.com/ALLLLBgLxB
— Xenta (@Xenta777) April 3, 2022
That is the most boopable Bayraktar nose EVER!!!!!
Open thread!
War for Ukraine Update 44: Russia Selects a New Commanding General For Their Next Offensive
by Adam L Silverman| 137 Comments
This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine
(Image by Olga Wilson; found here) The BBC has reported that Russia has changed its theater commander in southern and eastern Ukraine: I don’t think the Syria experience is going to amount to much here, but it is clear that the Russians have decided that what they had been doing – four component commanders in …
Here’s the latest map from the British MOD:
As you can see, not too much has changed. Though the Brits seem to be indicating that the Ukrainians are moving forces south through Zaporizhzhia and west from Mykolaiv towards the contested area north of Kherson.
Here’s the Pentagon’s background briefing from earlier today:
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: OK, good afternoon, everybody. I appreciate your flexibility today. I know normally, we do these things in the morning, but it’s just been that kind of a Friday, so we’ll get right at it.
Day 44. I know everybody’s interested in this missile strike on the Kramatorsk train station. Obviously, we are not buying the denial by the Russians that they weren’t responsible. I would note that they originally claimed a successful strike, and then only retracted it when there were reports of civilian casualties. So it’s our full expectation that this was a Russian strike. We believe they used a short-range ballistic missile, an SS-21, and we’ll leave it to local authorities to speak to the casualties and the damage. We don’t have perfect visibility into that.
Some of you may ask, “Well, why that train station and what was the reason?” We — as we’ve said before, we don’t have perfect visibility into the Russian targeting process, but it is a train station and it is located — if you look at the map, it’s located not very far from Izyum, just to the south, right on the edge of the line of contact between Russian and Ukrainian forces in the Donbas area. It’s a major rail hub, so I think I would just leave it at that. That — I think that says a lot right there.
As residents are beginning to return to Kyiv and some of the surrounding suburbs, we continue to see Ukrainians clearing the area of mines and booby-traps, but they — all the Russian forces are gone, as we said before. We believe that they are — these forces are transiting into and through assembly areas in Belarus and Western Russia to be refit and resupplied.
In general, we see some units making their way to Belgorod, and indications that some other units will be making their way to a town called I will butcher this, but I’ll spell it for you — Valuyki — V-A-L-U-Y-K-I, which is — which lies to the southeast of Belgorod in Russia. It’s right near the border with Ukraine and that northern part of the Donbas. We think that that area is going to serve as one of these resupply/refit areas for these troops, and we have seen indications that some units are moving in that direction as we speak.
As for where we’re seeing the fighting — continues in southern and eastern Ukraine, including near Kharkiv, still being fought over. Izyum, we’ve talked about Izyum now for many, many days; along that joint force operation area, again, that’s where this train station is, along the edge of that JFO. Obviously, Mariupol is still seeing heavy fighting, and we continue to see fighting around Mykolaiv, even though we don’t hold the Russians actually in Mykolaiv.
In the air, Russia’s sortie count, it came in over the last 24 hours at between 240 and 250, so roughly in line with what we’ve seen in recent days. The overall, overwhelming weight and focus of their strikes over the last 24 were on Mariupol and in that JFO, so clearly, they are focusing a large part of their strike activity on that eastern and southern part of Ukraine, again, in keeping with what we believe they’re going to try to do.
No significant maritime activity to speak to today. Let’s see — oh, and then on the missile count, we now have observed more than 1,500 missile launches since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
And with that, we’ll get to questions, so Bob?
Q: Thank you, (inaudible). On the — your description of the Russian troops that are moving — some of which are moving toward the Belgorod area for refit and resupply, do you have any sense of how long a process that might be before they’re likely to be moved into the Donbas area in terms of days, weeks or longer?
And secondly, on the secretary’s announcement, his statement this morning about the S-300 that — actually, about the — the movement of the Patriot missile battery to Slovakia, are you in discussions with Bulgaria or other countries about making similar arrangements? Thanks.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: On the refit, Bob, we don’t know for sure how long this is going to take because some units are much more devastated than others. We’ve seen indications of some units that are literally, for all intents and purposes, eradicated. There’s just nothing left of the BTG except a handful of troops, and maybe a small number of vehicles, and they’re going to have to be reconstituted or reapplied to others. We’ve seen
others that are, you know, down 30 percent manpower, or even higher. And so it’s going to depend on — and I don’t want to speak for the Russians here, but it’s going to depend on the health of these units and what the Russians want to do to get them combat-ready again. I suspect that with some units, they’ll be able to move much faster than with others.
But I would say this: We believe that they have not solved all of their logistics and sustainment problems; that those problems did not just exist inside Ukraine. They existed outside Ukraine, and still do exist. And so our sense is that they will likely not be able to reinforce the eastern part of the country with any great speed. I know that’s not completely satisfactory. I couldn’t give you days or weeks. It’s really going to depend on the unit and how ready they are to get back into the fight. But we don’t believe that in general, this is going to be a speedy process for them given the kinds of casualties they’ve taken and the kind of damages they’ve sustained to their units’ readiness.
On the second question about S-300s, I would just tell you that we continue to have conversations with allies and partners who have these kinds of long-range air defense systems, and I don’t want to get ahead of that process.
Tom Bowman?
Q: And do we — do you still believe that what the plan for the Russians is to continue to try to block the Ukrainian Army in by coming south or north along that axis and block them in?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: We still believe that one of their objectives is to fix Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Donbas and then engage them in combat to occupy the Donbas completely.
But they certainly — we believe another objective is to fix them there so that they can’t be used for the defense of the country anywhere else, including, you know, moving down towards the south. But again, I want to stress that right now we believe that the Russian locus of energy and effort is going to be in the south and in the east.
So fixing those troops there is a part of it but they have shown less desire now to go after further targets to the west. They are clearly focusing their efforts on the east.
Q: OK, great. Thanks.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Yep. Felicia?
Q: Hi. Thanks. Is the number of troops in the east still about 30 battalion tactical groups? Has that changed?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: We actually think it’s — as I said, we think they’ve increased it now. So we believe it’s probably up over 40.
Q: OK. Thanks.
The rest of the Q&A is at the link!
Someone asked in the comments the other night about pulling Ukrainian forces out of Ukraine for training in the US. I replied that I’d seen an article that a group of Ukrainian soldiers had just completed a regularly scheduled – as in before the reinvasion – training assignment in the US, which is a routine part of our professional military education programs. Apparently they worked training on how to use the Switchblade’s in before the Ukrainians completed their course of training. Here’s the details:
The U.S. has trained a small number of Ukrainian soldiers to use Switchblade unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), the “kamikaze” tactical aerial drones sent to the war-ravaged country as part of a military assistance package, according to a Pentagon official.
A shipment of 100 Switchblade UAVs, announced several weeks ago and supplied from U.S. military stock, arrived in Ukraine earlier this week, Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby told reporters Wednesday.
Kirby said he would not comment on the specific Switchblade variants sent to Ukraine, but said U.S. military officials were “going to keep talking to them and working with—and helping them get additional ones if they need it.”
The Switchblade system is not one the Ukrainian military typically uses, he noted.
“It is not a very complex system. It doesn’t require a lot of training,” Kirby said. “An individual could be suitably trained on how to use the Switchblade drone in about two days or so.”
A “very small number” of Ukrainian soldiers who had been in the U.S. for military educational purposes since last fall were trained to use the Switchblade UAV system, he said. “We took the opportunity to—having them still in the country, to give them a couple of days’ worth of training on the Switchblade,” so they could train others when they returned to Ukraine, he said.
Kramortask:
⚡️Railway station in Kramatorsk hit by a Russian missile.
Donetsk Oblast Governor says people were boarding evacuation trains when an Iskander missile hit near the main entrance.
Tens dead and injured, he adds. pic.twitter.com/HmnUmfkAg3
— Oleksiy Sorokin (@mrsorokaa) April 8, 2022
A child's blood-spattered toy, suitcases, and charred cars littered the railway station in Kramatorsk, eastern Ukraine, on April 8 after a Russian rocket attack that struck when around 1,000 people were waiting for a train to evacuate them to a safer part of the country. pic.twitter.com/P8L2u6OJvZ
— Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (@RFERL) April 8, 2022
This child was killed by a #russian missile today at the #Kramatorsk railway station.
And three more + 35 adults were killed. About 100 citizens were seriously injured. Some lost their arms and legs. pic.twitter.com/4rLUBZWY4M— Inna Sovsun (@InnaSovsun) April 8, 2022
If you’re wondering why the Russian missile had “for the children” written on it in Russian, Slava Malamud provides the context. For those who are not hockey fans, the picture on the left in the first tweet of the thread is Alex Ovechkin. Ovechkin is the captain of the Washington Capitals, as well as a major supporter of Putin.
This thread is for all the beautiful souls who want to enjoy their hockey in peace. For those innocents who just want to escape into the pure world of sports and appreciate their favorite athlete without all those nasty politics.
There is a straight line between these two images. pic.twitter.com/TufgjQoQxC— Slava Malamud ?? (@SlavaMalamud) April 8, 2022
- So, let’s go back in time for a bit, to 2014 when the picture on the left was taken. This was immediately after Russia had annexed Crimea and, drunk on its rediscovered imperial ambitions, started the war in Donbas. Except, back then, Russia wasn’t yet acknowledging it…
- According to Russia’s official narrative, Donbas had itself rebelled against the “Nazi” government in Kyiv. This was in no way true. Whatever separatist pro-Russian forces had existed in Donbas before, they were directly funded and controlled by Moscow. And in 2014…
- … Moscow had ignited the conflict by sending its operative “Strelkov” (real name: Igor Girkin), who had engineered the Crimea takeover, to organize an armed conflict, with a direct (though not officially acknowledged) involvement of Russian troops This is when the war REALLY started
- Russia had successfully managed to obfuscate this and to even blame Ukraine for the violence and deaths that occurred. To that end, it began a big propaganda push, called “Save Children From Fascism”, which distilled their lies into a simple narrative:
- “Ukraine is taken over by a Nazi regime that has decided to racially exterminate Russian speakers in the East. They are literally killing children in order to ethnically cleanse the region. Russia is a benevolent provider of humanitarian help to civilians and resistance fighters”
- This was the narrative that Russian celebrities pushed in 2014 and 2015. By far, the most famous of them was Alexander Ovechkin, the beloved whacker of pucks idolized in the US and Russia. He willingly and eagerly took part in a campaign designed to absolve Russia from blame, …
- … to place it on Ukrainians and to help Russia recruit volunteers to continue fighting in Donbas. Ovechkin slandered Ukraine and did his part to keep the embers of war burning. But he did more than that. He helped to entrench the “Ukraine is killing Donbas children” line…
- … in the minds of Russians. This is literally the No. 1 go-to propaganda line of Russian trolls and media pundits. This is what the Russian powerlifter said in her reply to Schwarzenegger: that Ukraine has been engaging in child slaughter for 8 years. This was done by Ovechkin.
- The horrible blood libel on Ukraine has permeated the Russian consciousness for 8 years, and the result is that Russian soldiers in 2022 are launching rockets at Ukrainian civilians, thinking they are retaliating for all those dead children. And people die.
- The missile that has killed dozens at the Kramatorsk train station today had the words “For the children” written on it. It was aimed to cause as many civilian casualties as possible. As vengeance. As terrorism. Russians have been radicalized by propaganda for 8 years.
- Many truly think they are fighting Nazism and saving or avenging children. Think about that the next time you are donning your No. 8 jersey and whooping it up in the stands. Athletes are not only athletes. When they lend their names to a cause, they exert a powerful influence.
Before we move on, I just want to take a minute to note the language in the hashtag on the sign that Ovechkin is holding up: “Save children from fascism”. One of the major elements of the QAnon conspiracy theory is that those that follow it and adhere to it are helping to save the children. In this case from a global cabal of liberal fascists who are trafficking children both for sex and to harvest a biochemical agent that doesn’t actually exist from them in order to prolong their own lives. These liberal fascists in the global cabal are, of course, the usual suspects in the fever dreams of the American conservative movement to the American hard right. We’re now seeing the same language come in to play with the proponents and defenders of the don’t say gay legislation in Florida and the other states that are pushing similar laws. In this case the save the children rhetoric is being merged with the eliminationist rhetoric that those individuals and organizations who oppose these vague, poorly written laws are either groomers of children for sex, pedophiles, or in favor of both.
The Russian disinformation campaign that Ovechkin participated in predates QAnon by about two years. QAnon, of course, was built on earlier conspiracy theories like Pizzagate, promoted by Russian adjacent useful idiots Agent Poso and the Mandrill Mindset, which specifically focused on accusations of pedophilia by liberal elites who are also fascists. Jonah Goldberg’s idiotic book is the gift no one wanted and that keeps on giving despite no one wanting more.
Finally, Malamud is worried his thread isn’t getting enough reach, so those of you on Twitter, please give it a retweet.
Mariupol:
The Azov Battalion is not giving up!
Defenders of besieged #Mariupol are true heroes.Once a 500 k city is in ruins. 100+ k civilians stay blocked there. #Ukrainian troops fight for every inch of Mariupol. Have a look how they hit #Russian armored vehicle. So it be with every ??occupant on our soil. #GloryToTheHeroes pic.twitter.com/FdJcoaJBzo
— Emine Dzheppar (@EmineDzheppar) April 8, 2022
#Ukraine: Footage from #Mariupol showing a Ukrainian BTR-4E APC attacking two Russian T-72 tanks from the rear with a 30mm cannon. Apparently, both tanks received serious damage. pic.twitter.com/7ecGv5AwkK
— ?? Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) April 7, 2022
Hostomel:
This letter was written by 9-year-old boy from Gostomel. He and his mother where fleeing in the city by car, but the Russians shot up their car. His mother was killed. The boy was helped out the car by another people.There is the translation of his letter on the right and it's ? pic.twitter.com/PJXr07JjIu
— Яна Супоровська (@YanaSuporovska) April 8, 2022
Bucha:
A 6-yo boy brings canned food to the grave of his mother who starved to death in Bucha. ??artist Aluona Zhuk illustrated the scene.
"This picture will never leave my mind. So I want the world to see it too. And start calling a spade a spade. It’s genocide, ?? genocide agnst ??" pic.twitter.com/udaKZCb6h1
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) April 8, 2022
Someone last night was asking about this Ukrainian video, which is an excellent example of Psychological Operations and Information Warfare:
Bloody hell this Ukrainian video needs to be seen by everyone pic.twitter.com/63LGOvSpQR
— Rupert Myers (@RupertMyers) April 7, 2022
GUYS! GUYS!!!!! IT’S FOLLOWING ME!!!!! WHAT DO I DO????
Hahahahaha! pic.twitter.com/CYt77wy2hb
— Michael Weiss ????? (@michaeldweiss) April 7, 2022
Obviously, DO NOT lead it back to your base!
I’m not a gamer, but I believe this is where I’m supposed to write:
Ukrainian Drone says: All your base belong to us!
I may or may not be aware of all Internet traditions…
Let’s end with this very, very, very good boy!
#Ukraine: The famous UA EOD dog, Cartridge, standing on a pile of UXO presumably left behind by Russian forces in #Kyiv Oblast. (He's perched on a stack of OF-843B 120mm HE-FRAG mortar bombs) pic.twitter.com/lYToGPL4H8
— Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ (@CalibreObscura) April 8, 2022
Open thread!
War for Ukraine Update 43: Russia Seems To Be Preparing To Attack Everywhere In the East and South of Ukraine
by Adam L Silverman| 110 Comments
This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine
(Image by Olga Wilson; found here) Let’s start with Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov’s address to partnering states from earlier today: While it is subtitled, here’s the transcript: Address by the Minister of Defence of Ukraine Oleksii Reznikov to the partnering states It has been 42 days since Russia’s large-scale attack on Ukraine. Today I …
I’ve spent a good chunk of today’s prep for this post looking at informed analysis of what Russia is planning to do in the east and south of Ukraine. As we’ve been discussing, the logical thing would be to try to encircle and reduce the Joint Force Operation (JFO) that is exposed on three sides between Luhansk and Izium. However, that does not seem to be what the Russians are doing. They seem to be trying to and/or preparing to attack everywhere at once. Take a look at the most recent map from the British Ministry of Defence:
If you count the tips of the red arrows you can see that Russia is trying to either reinforce or attack seven different targets. That’s a lot. It is a lot of targets and it is a lot of area to cross and cover. This thread provides a good analysis.
First the size. To put the area of operations in context the distance from Kharkiv to Mariupol is 420 kms; around 260 miles. In U.K. terms it’s almost the length of England (London to Sunderland) in US terms it’s like going NYC to WDC and then back to Baltimore. pic.twitter.com/OnlyIP7dpS
— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) April 7, 2022
- The Russians are not only going to have to move up and down long lines of advance if they were going to take these areas, they are going to have to hold them. Right now they have nowhere near enough troops in theatre to do that.
- On the north end of this area of operations the Russians have deployed 30 BTGs of approx 800-1000 soldiers. They have been in combat for almost six weeks and for all the talk about the importance of seizing Izium, they have advanced about 10 miles in 3 weeks. See map 16 March
- So they have at most 24000 tired soldiers to control a large area from Kharkiv to Izium, which is also supposed to drive through determined Ukrainian resistance and create a Donbas pocket while protecting its long supply lines? Good luck.
- Situation in the South is even tricker. Russians have two many different areas of operations. They have BTGs fighting from Mariupol to Kherson, which is almost exactly the same distance as Mariupol to Kharkiv. They have far fewer troops here they could spare to move on Dnipro
- UAWAR data; an excellent resource, has only 6 Russian BTGs below Zaporizhzia. That is not enough to take that city: let alone maintain any major offensive. 5000 or so troops is way to small.
- Russian troops around Kherson are already getting pushed back and the ones fighting in Mariupol will be in no shape to head into another major attack if/when that city falls.
- It’s been why I’ve been banging on about seeing what reinforcements the Russians bring. They do not have anything like enough forces to undertake the kinds of operations people seem to be talking about. They will need massive reinforcement of well supplied troops.
- If they are counting on the withdrawn Kyiv forces mainly, best guess is that it’s many weeks til they are rested. resupplied and transported to theatre for operations.
- And all the while the Ukrainians will be reinforcing and resupplying as well. So the idea of the Russians wrapping up operations in the Donbas and seizing Dnipro by May 9 seems almost entirely implausible. Far more likely we have nasty attritional warfare along the present lines.
- If I was a gambling man, which I’m not, I would wager it’s more likely we see a major Russian military collapse somewhere in the south and east (Kherson?) by May 9 through being overstretched and attritted than a Russian Army having seized Dnipro and surrounded the entire Donbas.
- Btw, things don’t seem to be going well at all for Russian forces around Kherson.
- Nothing says “winning” like moving your close-air-support back 85km because it kept getting attacked and destroyed.
LTG (ret) Hertling also had an interesting thread dealing with the same issue. With lots and lots of maps!
As most know, RU/RU-backed separatist & UKR forces have been fighting in parts of Donetsk & Luhansk Oblast since 2014.
Ukraine regards both Donetsk & Luhansk People's Republic (DPR & LPR) as terrorist organizations (do NOT call them "breakaway republics"). 2/ pic.twitter.com/DS3vL3iD3n
— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) April 6, 2022
- The fighting is like many “frozen conflicts” RU has stoked in various European countries (Georgia, Moldova, Azerbaijan-Armenia) with their illegal actions. Much of the line resembles WWI trenches. With intense sniping and shelling since 2014. Thousands killed 3/
- By reinforcing these lines, and the 2 shoulders in the N & S, RU hopes to conduct frontal attacks in the Donbas while attempting to surround URK’s forces from N & S. They’ll have trouble executing this plan. But how will the frontal attacks look? 4/
- Well, there’s already reports of RU attacks last night from within Donetsk. Reports say RU attempted a “breakthrough” (we’ll come back to that word) near Razdolnoye, with a purpose of reaching the Donetsk-Zaporizhia hiway near Bogatyr. (more to that in a minute, too). 5/
- I’d say this action REALLY was is a Reconnaissance‐in‐force (RIF). A RIF is designed to find the enemy’s strength, weakness, dispositions & test their reactions, according to our doctrine (ADRP 3‐90). See example… 6/
- If the RU RIF finds a weak spot, they push through (as shown). If they find strength in UKRs line, they should pull back. Last night, the RU found UKR strength, but kept going instead of pulling back. UKR reports they engaged & destroyed this small RU tactical attack. 7/
- Had the RU RIF found a hole, it would have provided RU with intelligence about what they’re facing in the UA. They would’ve then planned to push other forces through the hole, while holding in other places along the front. In doctrine, this is called a “Breakthrough.” 8/
- When RU finds a weak spot, their doctrine in to use LOTS of artillery to make the weak spot bigger and then send lots of fast moving forces (that is, tanks) through. Holding the “shoulders” with other forces. The Germans did this in WWII as part of their blitzkrieg doctrine. 9/
- My belief, because of what I’ve seen, is RU hasn’t trained or practiced these kinds of maneuvers. Based on what we’ve seen, the RU “maneuver” capability, skill of their force, C2 & log support are all extremely weak. And, they haven’t tried this in the Donbas in 8 years. 10/
- A bunch of RU generals have been writing about this technique over the last few years. Here’s an interesting piece: https://internationalmagz.com/articles/military-concept-of-the-modern-breakthrough-2 Problem: writing about and doing are two different things. 11/
- Also, I’m convinced RU will NOT be able to get the same forces they used in the Kyiv and Kharkiv offensives back into the fight anytime soon, no matter what others say. Those forces are depleted. Mauled. Some may fight, but they likely won’t be effective. 12/
- BTW, before we leave breakthrough, Brusilov & his followers say RU must use massive artillery on enemy positions OR use *battlefield tactical nuclear weapons* to create a breakthrough when gaps are found by the RIF. Again, theoretical…but that scares the crap out of me. 13/
- So, how does UKR counter these offensive actions? 1. be strong everywhere (tough to do) 2. have a good reserve (possible, but also tough) 3. be able to move quickly to counter any attacks. “Interior lines” I discussed in another thread helps w/ 2 & 3, because of distance 14/
- But, UKR must also find ways to be more mobile for this new phase. First, they’ll need very good intelligence about where RU forces are moving. Then, tanks they’ve “acquired” from RU and those provided by NATO nations will help. 15/
- UA will continue to rely on technological advanced weapons to close any gaps on the front line, and focus on defeating RU’s artillery. They will use territorials and UA to thwart RU advances from the N & S “shoulders” of the Donbas, to ensure no encirclement. 16/
- UKR must defend their own supply line, interfere with RU C2, logistics, and movement… …while also conducting other unconventional operations behind RU front lines.
- This is about the “front line” tactical fights in the Donbas. UKR must still deal with civilian assistance, cataloguing war crimes, fighting RU assaults in Crimea, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, etc everywhere else. Donbas will be a battle of attrition. UKR is prepared for it.17/17
Here’s the Ukrainian Foreign Minister’s view of what is coming in the Donbas:
⚡️Foreign minister: Battle of Donbas will be similar to World War II.
“This will not be a local operation based on what we see from Russia’s preparations,” Dmytro Kuleba said, adding that he expects large-scale operations involving thousands of tanks, armored vehicles, aircraft.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 7, 2022
And here’s some of what’s already happening:
A Russian air strike near Barvinkove has hit the only Ukraine-controlled railway exit from Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Lyman, stalling evacuations from Donbas, says Ukrzaliznytsia board chair Oleksandr Kamyshin. He called the rail line the "road of life" for 10s of 1000s of civilians.
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 7, 2022
Heavy shelling in #Luhansk region prevents massive evacuation. Only 250 people got evacuated from Syevyerodonetsk, and just 15 from Rubizhne. But in few days even these evacuation capacities could be unavailable anymore. #Ukraine #StopRussianAgression
— Maria Zolkina (@Mariia_Zolkina) April 7, 2022
not a single hospital stands after russian airstrikes in luhansk region. this one is recently-renovated in rubizhne. this is russian revenge for ukraine rebuilding donbas better after 2014 invasionhttps://t.co/0dY6hPGFGp pic.twitter.com/eErlvq7aXh
— maksym.eristavi ???️? (@MaximEristavi) April 7, 2022
None of this means that Kyiv has been removed as a high value target:
Ukrainian general says Russia may attack Kyiv a second time. Says 1/3 of Kyiv axis forces were destroyed. Russia has kept 1/3 in Belarus, moved 1/3 to the east. We’re expecting new wave of attacks in south and east in next few days. https://t.co/sIVRRCUNFY
— Oliver Carroll (@olliecarroll) April 7, 2022
“Kill them all!” – Russian occupiers get orders to kill civilians. New intercepts. pic.twitter.com/daGE4Hae9u
— Liubov Tsybulska (@TsybulskaLiubov) April 7, 2022
Chernihiv:
German journalists have counted over 400 new graves in Chernihiv – a picturesque ancient city in the north of Ukraine, on borders to Belarus and Russia. The journalists stress: these are the graves of identified persons only. Elder people and children are among dead ones. https://t.co/4vF6mYuf2s
— Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) April 7, 2022
Chornobyl:
Feb 24-Mar 31: Russian military had dug trenches in ground polluted by radiation near Chornobyl. @ukr_witness visited their abandoned fortifications and found that in some places, radiation levels were too high for the dosimeter pic.twitter.com/3KEMF6qubT
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) April 7, 2022
Spain:
A Russian Federation ship that needed to refuel in Spain was told “Russian ship, fuck you and fuck #Putin” ??
pic.twitter.com/aUpjac331X— Soros (@reconnxx) April 7, 2022
Here’s today’s British Ministry of Defence’s assessment:
And here’s the most recent assessment/update from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. It’s from yesterday:
The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 18.00 on April 6, 2022
2022-04-06 19:00:00 | ID: 67183
The forty-second day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.
A russian enemy continues to prepare for an offensive operation in eastern Ukraine in order to establish full control over the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. A russian occupiers are regrouping troops and conducting reconnaissance, trying to improve the tactical position of separate units in the South Buh area and gain a foothold on the administrative borders of the Kherson region.
The main focus of a russian enemy’s efforts is to conduct offensive operations in order to break through the defences of the Joint Forces in the Donetsk direction. It is also trying to take full control of the city of Mariupol.
The regrouping of russian troops and the restoration of combat capability of the Central Military District units deployed to the Bryansk and Kursk oblasts are nearing completion.
Training and relocation of units of the occupying forces of the armed forces of the russian federation to the territory of Ukraine is underway. The enemy planned to move units of the 38th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 35th All-Military Army of the Eastern Military District from the territory of the republic of belarus to the Belgorod Region. The movement of some units of the Central Military District to this region is also recorded.
In the Volyn and Polissya directions, no significant changes were found in the position and condition of the enemy troops. Units of the Eastern Military District withdrawn to the territory of the Gomel region are completing the regrouping.
The movement of russian enemy units to railway stations for loading and subsequent redeployment is noted.
The enemy continues to block Kharkiv in the Slobozhansky direction. Mostly at night, the russian occupiers shell the city using multiple rocket launchers, artillery and mortars. In the area of the city of Izyum, the enemy did not take active action. By forces of separate divisions of the 20th all-military and 1st tank armies of the Western military district it carries out regrouping.
To increase the efficiency of the transfer of military cargo, the enemy began to use the railway. The arrival of railway echelons with weapons and military equipment from the Valuyki station (russian federation) to the Kupyansk railway station (Ukraine) has been recorded.
In the Donetsk and Luhansk directions, the enemy’s main efforts are focused on hostilities in the areas of the settlements of Popasna and Rubizhne and the establishment of control over the city of Mariupol. A russain enemy is trying to improve the tactical position.
Russian enemy continues to fire in most areas.
The enemy carried out artillery shelling in the areas of Kreminna, Pisky, Ocheretino, Rozivka, Novobahmutivka, Novosilka Druha, Marinka and Krasnohorivka.
In the areas of Popasna, Stepny, Novotoshkivske, Rubizhne, Severodonetsk and Solodky, the enemy carried out assault operations, but was unsuccessful.
The storming of the city of Mariupol continues, while the enemy is actively using aircraft.
In the South Bug direction, the enemy continues to shell the settlements of Shcherbaki, Komyshuvakha, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Huliaipilske, Lukyanivske, Preobrazhenka and Huliai Pole.
As a result of offensive actions of units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the enemy lost control over the settlement of Osokorivka.
The Defence Forces of Ukraine continue to hold certain borders, destroy the enemy and liberate Ukrainian lands from the invader.
Let’s win together! Glory to Ukraine!
Before we finish, I promised Martin an answer to his question about the rise of fascism from Tuesday night’s update post. Here’s his question:
We are seeing a domestic rise in fascist ideology against the backdrop of the Russia/Ukraine conflict. We had the very same thing happen leading into WWII. My take had always been that the domestic rise was feeling emboldened by a greater willingness to project fascist ideologies globally. That take could be completely wrong.
But I also felt that the observed need to fight those fascist forces domestically may have contributed to the US leadership at the time wanting to fight them abroad. Since this is a growing problem not just in the US, but also UK, France, Germany, Hungary (obviously), do you think that will push NATO countries further into Ukraine?
Today I got this really strong feeling that all of these different things are pulling us unavoidably into a larger conflict.
The rise, or attempt to create, a domestic American fascism prior to WW II was a project of the elites. Specifically the ultra-wealthy financiers, bankers, industrialists, and business owners who had managed to retain most of their wealth despite the Great Depression. They were enamored of what Mussolini was doing with national-syndacalism in Italy, as well as attempts to create a viable fascist movement in France and other parts of Europe. These elites and notables sent a trusted agent to tour Europe and meet with the continent’s fascist theorists and leaders and then bring back what he’d learned and report back to them. As a result of what he told them they decided that FDR’s presidency, which had just gotten started, needed to end immediately. The intention was to (what we’d now call) astro-turf a popular uprising with a sympathetic group as its vanguard to force FDR to take on an unelected co-president. This unelected co-president, who would never be publicly acknowledged, would secretly run the US while FDR functioned as the president in public; as a figure head and as ceremonial head of state, but not the head of government/chief executive and commander in chief.
The sympathetic group they decided upon was the remnants of the Bonus Army of World War I veterans. And they approached MajGen (ret) Smedley Darlington Butler, who was beloved by the veterans in the Bonus Army, to lead the revolt. Unfortunately for them, and fortunately for the US, Butler led the coup plotters along just long enough to gather the full details of the plot and then he ran right to the White House, Congress, and the press to expose it. Unfortunately for America, and to Butler’s frustration, it was largely covered up. I wrote about the Business Plot to overthrow FDR back in October 2021. The post includes a video of what was originally a news reel of Butler describing the plot.
Among the coup plotters were two men whose names you may recognize: George Herbert Walker and Prescott Bush. Walker was the maternal grandfather and namesake of President George H.W. Bush and great-grandfather and semi-namesake of President George W. Bush. Prescott Bush, who would go on from his coup plotting to be a senator from Connecticut, was the father of President George H.W. Bush and the grandfather of President George W. Bush.
But the history/story doesn’t just end there. The US, still reeling from the Great Depression, had succumbed to the isolationism and nativism of the 19th century reinvigorated by the economic disruptions of the late 1920s and the 1930s. As such, America’s door’s were shut. Even to those fleeing from the rise of NAZIism. I wrote about the late 19th and early 20th century American isolationism and nativism way back in September 2016, including how Senator Robert Taft (R-OH) in 1939 made it very clear to the national president of the Jewish War Veterans of America that neither he, nor the Senate Republican Caucus, would do anything to assist in resettling 20,000 Jewish children from Europe to the US in order to save them from the NAZIs. Some things never change.
A lot of what would eventually be called fascism or NAZIism already existed before those labels were created for them. And those ideological impulses and political, social, economic, and religious positions were all present in the US well before Mussolini and his national-syndacalism or Hitler and NAZIism came on the scene. We just didn’t have the terms to label them that we do now. I think one can make a very good argument that the ideological movements in the US that we currently call neo-NAZI or fascist or national-conservative for the largely incoherent bricolage that Bannon is serving up as America First/MAGA or white Christian nationalism long predate the early 20th century. We see the earliest manifestations of these movements in the antebellum south as it grew ever more apart from the north. We see it in the Confederacy. And since the Union won the Civil War on the battlefield, but lost the post war peace, it is not surprising that it is still with us. For a very long time it rode the Democratic Party at the national level, especially the southern Democratic Party, like a parasite. Even as it was also riding select Republicans like Senator Taft. And riding whichever party was in control in each particular state. When it became clear that the Democratic Party was no longer a suitable host, it detached itself and fully latched on to the Republican Party. It took over forty years to fully consolidate its control of the GOP from local to national level, but this anti-liberal, anti-democratic, and anti-liberty movement is nothing if not patient and persistent.
Putin’s genius, or those of the people he put in place in his intelligence agencies, was in recognizing that these political, social, economic, and religious beliefs had long existed in the US and that if he provided the movements that espoused them with support, he could empower those movements to weaken the US from within. This is why you see the influence operations run on the National Prayer Breakfast, on white evangelicals and traditionalist Catholics through the Global Christian Forum, on ultra-orthodox Jews through co-opting the Chabad movement. It’s the reason for the influence operation with the National Rifle Association. All of these influence operations, and several I haven’t mentioned, all targeted organizations that cater almost exclusively to Americans who identify as politically, socially, and/or religiously conservative and vote Republican. At the same time, Putin was both overtly in Europe and covertly in the US and Europe funding and amplifying the most extreme hard right elements in the US and the EU member states. The groups and individuals that don’t get upset if they’re called NAZIs, neo-NAZIs, white supremacists, racists, and/or fascists.
To tie this all up so we can all get on with our lives, there is a definite through line. There was in the 1930s and 1940s because the American business elites and notables that embraced fascism and tried to astro-turf it in the US were influenced by the European fascists. Even as they were already there in terms of ideology, they just lacked a name. For the past decade or so there has also been a definite through line between what Putin has done in Russia to his own state, society, and citizenry and what he’s encouraged through a variety of covert means in the US and many of the EU states. Putin and his key agents found ways into the worst elements in American political, social, religious, and economic conservatism. They then exploited those opportunities to further radicalize these people and the organizations they are members of. And when it was all finally exposed the people and organizations that have been and are still being exploited looked around and instead of becoming angry for being played for fools decided they liked the influence operation that had been undertaken on them. They both embraced it and denied it was happening at the same time. Unlike the disastrous reinvasion of Ukraine, and here’s hoping it remains disastrous for Putin and Russia, the influence operations he’s been running on Americans, the British, and a variety of European and Israeli political parties, social, and religious movements cost pennies on the dollar. And they have been and continue to be effective beyond anyone’s wildest dreams.
And we’ll finish with this tonight:
thank you for not being comfortably numb
?: https://t.co/N6LSZpve6S pic.twitter.com/LY7kTN1hOT
— Ukraine / Україна (@Ukraine) April 7, 2022
Open thread!
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