Last night until I went to bed and then, apparently, into the small hours based on what I saw when I checked back in this morning a number of you engaged with commenter topclimber regarding his question for me. I also watched topclimber move the goal posts over and over. I was just going to …
War For Ukraine Day 141: I’m Going To Answer This Question One Last Time!Post + Comments (85)
This is the reality that the Ukrainians are facing every day:
More footage. Imagine going about your day and then… pic.twitter.com/ur7XlNel0i
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) July 14, 2022
Mykolaiv was also attacked today. There too, the attack was once again on civilian targets. Mykolaiv was fortunate to see only infrastructure destroyed:
Mykolaiv was attacked by 9 missiles today. No victims for luck. russian Terrorists destroyed hotel, 2 schools, trolley buses, central stadium… pic.twitter.com/Zammvcj61q
— Віталій Кім / Vitaliy Kim (@vitalij_kim) July 14, 2022
Let’s take the next part:
Rather than engage on the larger issue, I want to focus on a diplomatic solution to the blockade of Ukrainian wheat exports. The two options you put forth are basically aquatic versions of a no-fly zone–i.e. a solution posited on Western military might. This is exactly the approach that, based on prior US adventurism, sours the global South on our leadership.
What I am driving at is that a solution that involved non-Western/Russian powers–perhaps led by China, India,leading African and Middle Eastern countries–might actually have chance to work. These are the folks most likely to suffer from the direct or indirect effects of keeping Ukrainian exports off the market. The US would be better served by promoting efforts of such nations than trying to force its own solution.
I’m not suggesting an aquatic version of a no fly zone. I’m suggesting two legal options under international maritime law for reopening the Black Sea.
As for the global south, they have more legitimate concerns and grievances than I can list here or would even want to list here, but they’re not going to assist us in regard to Ukraine no matter what happens. Putin is going to sell them oil and natural gas at a discounted rate to keep his coffers full. He will also sell them stolen Ukrainian grain, but only after he drives them to the brink of starvation, creates a refugee crisis, destabilizes their states and societies, and is then able to extract concessions from them that will extend his sphere of interest into their states and societies in order to help re-stabilize them. Or from their new dictators.
The PRC entered into a strategic agreement with Russia back at the beginning of February. A careful reading of that agreement indicates it was heavily weighted in China’s favor. This is because Putin needs Xi much more than Xi needs Putin. This places Xi in the position of becoming Putin’s krysha. Xi’s strategic approach is the game of go. The Belt and Road Initiative is one big application of go through the use of economic, financial, and legal power in service to intelligence and informational power, all subsumed within diplomatic power. Just the name – Belt and Road – immediately brings to mind the geo-spatial encirclement that is at the heart of the game of go. Xi, by bringing Putin’s EAEU in line with the BRI, has basically done two things: a) Xi has captured the the EAEU by encircling/entangling it within the BRI and b) Xi, by doing so and by backing up Putin, XI gets access to the influence networks that Putin has developed for influencing the US and EU. The white Christian outreach, the neo-nationalists and separatists, the hard left of democratic socialists, etc. These are networks that are much harder for Xi’s people to penetrate and the targets are much harder for Xi’s people to cultivate. Guo’s success notwithstanding and largely the result of the fact that Bannon can’t recognize when someone is running the con on him rather than Bannon running the con on others.
The PRC is getting everything it wants from both this agreement and from Russia underperforming in Ukraine. Sure, there’s an increase in regional and global chaos, which freaks out the PRC leadership for cultural reasons, but they are right now positioned to come out of this in a much stronger position regarding Russia than when they signed the strategic agreement back in February.
India has made it clear it is going to sit on its huge grain surplus. I suspect there are two reasons for this. The first is that Modi is hedging to make sure he doesn’t have a food shortage crisis on his hands in India. The second is that Modi thinks it’ll give him a strategic advantage, not to mention a hefty profit, if he can step in at the last minute with grain sales to states on the brink of famine.
Saudi Arabia is not going to do anything to help. Just last week I covered the reporting that Saudi is negotiating to buy stolen Ukrainian grain from Russia. But they’re also not going to help because Mohammed bin Salman has had a relationship with Putin that goes back at least to 2014. From 60 Minutes (emphasis mine):
Scott Pelley: Do you think Mohammed bin Salman fears you?
Saad Aljabri: He fears my information.
Saad told us his information includes a 2014 meeting between Prince Mohammed and the then head of intelligence, Mohammed bin Nayef. It was three years before the coup. Saad claims the young prince boasted to Nayef that he could kill the sitting king, Abdullah, to clear the throne for his own father.
Saad Aljabri: And he told him, I want to assassinate King Abdullah. I get a poison ring from Russia. It’s enough for me just to shake hand with him and he will be done.
Scott Pelley: A poison ring from Russia?
Saad Aljabri: That what he say. Whether he’s just bragging or, but he said that and we took it seriously.
By “we,” Saad means Saudi intelligence took it seriously. The alleged threat, he says, was handled within the royal family. Saad told us he watched the meeting on a video recording.
Scott Pelley: Does this video recording still exist?
Saad Aljabri: Yes. I know where it is now. I know there are two copies of that. I know where they are.
I trust I’m not going to have to answer this again!
Very briefly, here is President Zelenskyy’s address to Ukraine from earlier this evening. Video below followed by English language transcript (emphasis mine):
Today I am addressing not Ukrainian men and women, as usual, but our partners. Democratic world.
This day once again proved that Russia must be officially recognized as a terrorist state. No other state in the world poses such a terrorist threat as Russia. No other state in the world allows itself to destroy peaceful cities and ordinary human life with cruise missiles and rocket artillery every day.
As a result of just one missile attack on our city of Vinnytsia, 23 people were killed. Three children under the age of ten. And this, unfortunately, is not yet the final number. Debris clearance is ongoing. Dozens of people are listed as missing. Heavily wounded are among those hospitalized.
One of the missiles destroyed the Neuromed medical center. There were people inside. Nataliya, she is 40 years old. Tetiana, she is 32 years old. Volodymyr, he is 61 years old. Vira, she is 55 years old. I saw them among the missing. You see, it was not even known what happened to the people who simply went to the medical center…
And if someone launched a missile attack on a medical center in Dallas or Dresden, God forbid, what would it be called? Wouldn’t it be called terrorism?
A girl is among the dead today in Vinnytsia, she was four years old, her name was Liza. The child was four years old! Her mother is in critical condition…
Russia ended the girl’s life just at the time when a conference on Russian war crimes was taking place in the Netherlands, in The Hague. A conference where it was decided what should be done to ensure that every Russian military is punished.
Can you think of any other terrorist organization that would allow itself such audacity? To kill just at the moment when its previous crimes are the subject of international discussion.
Russia has thus shown its attitude to international law, to Europe, and to the entire civilized world. After that, no one can have any doubt that a Special Tribunal on Russian aggression against Ukraine is needed as soon as possible. Also, a special compensation mechanism must be implemented as soon as possible, with the help of which all Russian assets and funds in all countries of the world must be confiscated and aimed at compensations for the victims of Russian terror.
It is absolutely necessary to implement as soon as possible such restrictions against Russian energy exports, which will not allow terrorists to cover their costs at the expense of the international community.
And I want to emphasize: all this is needed not only by Ukraine, not only by our citizens, whose lives are under threat of Russian terror. This is needed by all of you, everyone in the world who values human life at least a little.
Terror is a virus. And if one of the terrorists goes unpunished, it only encourages others.
The ceremony of awarding our defenders upon whom the title of Hero of Ukraine was conferred took place this morning in Kyiv. I presented the Gold Star Orders to our warriors, as well as to the relatives of those warriors who were awarded the title of Hero posthumously.
In total, during the full-scale war since February 24, the title of Hero has been awarded to 157 Ukrainians, 75 – posthumously. More than 23,000 of our defenders have been awarded state awards, more than 3,500 – posthumously.
Hundreds of thousands of our warriors hold back the Russian onslaught every day and every night. Ukrainians make one of the most significant contributions in history to the the fight against terrorism. And we are grateful to everyone who helps us. To every state, international structures, public associations around the world, conscientious business, every person who cares.
But the time has come for the democratic world to enshrine all this in proper legal instruments. The status of a terrorist state for Russia. The special tribunal on Russian aggression. The special compensation mechanism that will direct the funds of the terrorist state to those whom it wanted to destroy. And, of course, new sanctions for terror. New sanctions are needed as soon as possible.
And finally. I want the crew of the vessel, which fired the Kalibrs on Vinnytsia today, to know for sure that prison is the best thing they may face.
Eternal memory to all victims of Russian terror!
Eternal glory to each and every one who defends a normal peaceful life!
Glory to Ukraine!
I’m going to leave it there for tonight before I write something intemperate.
Your daily Patron!
Dogs have no God. But we have a strong intuition and faith in our people. My human says that #russiaisaterrorisstate . And my intuition says that it will not last long. pic.twitter.com/5osEHXG9Mj
— Patron (@PatronDsns) July 14, 2022
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns Тільки так!😠🇺🇦 #песпатрон #патрондснс #славаукраїні
Open thread!