(Image by NEIVANMADE)
As Day 673 of Ukraine’s war of defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion ticked over in Ukraine to day 674, air raid alerts went up over most of the country. Here’s the map as of 5:25(ish) EST:
Ever wondered how your nights change when your neighbor’s an aggressive terrorist? pic.twitter.com/AihpktctDu
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) December 28, 2023
And here’s where it is as of 6:45 EST:
This follows this morning’s Russian bombardment:
At 10 am, Russians shelled Vovchansk, Kharkiv region. A 66-year-old woman killed, another injured.
This is what they call 'negotiations'. pic.twitter.com/7KZAhKeEIV
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) December 28, 2023
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Resilience, strength and results at this very moment determine the outcome of this winter of full-scale war – address by the President of Ukraine
28 December 2023 – 20:00
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
A brief report for today.
A conference call in the morning referring to the internal situation and elimination of consequences of Russian strikes. In particular, Kherson and the region, Zaporizhzhia region and other regions. I am thankful to every rescuer, every doctor, every police officer.
Reports by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Security Service of Ukraine: there are good results in protecting against collaborators and spotters, and in combating crime.
The functioning of our export corridor in the Black Sea: over 12 million tons of cargo have already been handled. The results in December are particularly remarkable, and this is evident at the level of our entire economy.
Of course, there were reports from the frontline today – Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, the left bank of Kherson. Our resilience, strength and results at this very moment determine the outcome of this winter of full-scale war and our expectations for the next year.
In the afternoon, there were also meetings. In particular, with the Minister of Defense. On the development of our Defense Forces. Specific things that need to be done. And we will do them. Absolutely. To preserve our strength and to have the necessary arguments in a conversation with our partners. Increasing Ukraine’s own capabilities and maintaining the consolidation of the world is our task. The task of the entire state and everyone who works for it.
Today was also the year-end meeting on negotiations on security commitments for Ukraine. The team of the Office, the government… There is a core declaration of the Group of Seven – the Vilnius Declaration. 30 states have already endorsed it. Bilateral work on commitments has begun, and we will continue next year.
I have just spoken with His Holiness Pope Francis to express gratitude for his Christmas greetings to Ukraine and Ukrainians, for his wishes of peace – just peace for all of us. We discussed our joint work on the Peace Formula – more than 80 states are already involved at the level of their representatives. There will be more. I am grateful to the Vatican for supporting our work.
I would also like to thank the United States for a new defense package – the 34th this year and the 54th since we have started defending ourselves against this Russian aggression. This package includes missiles for air defense systems and HIMARS, artillery of 155 and 105 caliber, and additional armored vehicles. Everything we need. Everything that helps tangibly.
I am thankful to President Biden, Congress – both parties – and all those who support us in a very specific task: Russian terror must be defeated. Terror must always fail. And all of us together in the free world will ensure that – we will do everything to maintain the proper level of cooperation next year for the sake of our common strength, the strength of everyone who stands against terror.
I thank everyone who is now in combat, at combat posts and on combat missions for the sake of Ukraine! I thank everyone who helps and works for our common interests!
Glory to Ukraine!
This Christmas tree is a symbol of Ukrainian indomitability.
Despite all difficulties we stay strong.📸: @Liberov pic.twitter.com/MPMsPwMmLC
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 28, 2023
Norwegian firefighters and emergency first responders:
Firefighting equipment delivered by @NorwegianAidUkr in #Kherson 🇺🇦
Link to Telegram article: https://t.co/ZQ5Zwn8KVz
Help deliver more rescue vehicles to Ukraine 🚒🚑🇳🇴🇺🇦
⭐️ PayPal: https://t.co/TlTK7yDtOv
⭐️ Spleis: https://t.co/g2sUxta8gn
⭐️ Vipps: 746679 pic.twitter.com/QbLe3QuyYi— Norwegian Ukrainian Fire and Ambulance Aid (@NorwegianAidUkr) December 28, 2023
Germany:
Germany's stepping up with €8 billion in military aid for Ukraine in 2024. Berlin's not backing down on pushing for the €50 billion EU aid, even without Hungary. Solid support! 💪🇺🇦 https://t.co/77xd4DUXZH
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) December 28, 2023
The G7:
The USA are forwarding a plan to the G7 to confiscate Russian assets in the West. Around 300 billion USD are currently frozen in Western banks.
I have been saying this in the past that this is an untapped source of funds. There is also legal basis to confiscate that money as you… https://t.co/DVAgX9s1Ij pic.twitter.com/pV6mKeilCO
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) December 28, 2023
The USA are forwarding a plan to the G7 to confiscate Russian assets in the West. Around 300 billion USD are currently frozen in Western banks.
I have been saying this in the past that this is an untapped source of funds. There is also legal basis to confiscate that money as you can retrieve from by repost down below. The UNGA voted overwhelmingly in favor that Russia will have to pay reparations for the damage of the unprovoked war in Ukraine which Russia started.
Source: https://ft.com/content/d206baa8-3ec9-42f0-b103-2c098d0486d9
#Ukraine #UNGA #G7
Here are the details from The Financial Times:
The US has proposed that working groups from the G7 explore ways to seize $300bn in frozen Russian assets, as the allies rush to agree a plan in time for the second anniversary of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
While no decisions have been taken and the issue remains hotly debated inside European capitals, the acceleration of work on confiscating Moscow’s assets for Ukraine highlights its rising importance for the west.
The topic was discussed this month by both G7 finance ministers and their deputies, according to people briefed on the calls, which touched on how to develop such a policy and assess the risks involved.
The US, backed by the UK, Japan and Canada, has proposed moving forward with the preparatory work so the options would be ready for a potential meeting of G7 leaders around February 24, the date of Vladimir Putin’s 2022 offensive on Kyiv.
The three working groups proposed by Washington would examine the legal issues around confiscation; the method of applying such a policy and mitigating risks; and options for how to best channel the support to Ukraine.
Germany, France, Italy and the EU have expressed some reservations, and the need to carefully assess the legality of confiscating Moscow’s assets before decisions are taken. Several European ministers also stressed the need to maintain high levels of secrecy over the work, according to accounts of the meeting.
Various options are being explored in western capitals, ranging from directly confiscating and spending the Russian central bank assets, to tapping the proceeds from the frozen assets or using them as collateral for loans.
The EU has so far stopped short of seizing the Russian assets themselves, instead exploring ways to skim off profits generated for financial institutions such as Euroclear, where €191bn in sovereign assets are held.
Washington has so far not publicly backed seizing Russian assets. But the US privately circulated a discussion paper this year within the G7 suggesting seizures of Moscow’s frozen assets would be lawful as “a countermeasure to induce Russia to end its aggression”.
But Europe, where the majority of the assets are held, is much more wary, fearing the possible implications for financial stability as well as retaliatory action from Russia.
Italy, which takes over the G7 presidency in 2024, is among those worried about potential retaliation on its companies active in Russia, something that Moscow has already threatened to do. Russia has also warned it would cease diplomatic relations with the US in response to any asset confiscation.
The EU, UK and France also stressed that the money would not be readily available, and insufficient to cover Ukraine’s reconstruction needs, and that seizing the assets should not be at the expense of providing financial support to Kyiv in 2024.
Some ministers are concerned that the debate over seizures will imply there is an alternative to orthodox funding packages for Ukraine, which have stalled through opposition in the US Congress and because of Hungary’s refusal to back an EU deal.
More at the link!
This isn’t actually a plan. It is a proposal to create three working groups to explore if this is legal, let alone feasible, acceptable, and suitable (FAS), which is the assessment framework we use for strategy and policy. It is also intended to make the US and its EU allies look like they’re doing something because their internal political divisions are making it impossible to do the normal, straightforward, just pass the legislation to fund and supply Ukraine. Do not expect much to come of this. And from the Ukrainian perspective they cannot plan on this actually happening. Especially because it is unlikely it will.
For those still unclear on what Russia’s objectives are in their genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine, Dmitri Medvedev tweets the quiet part out loud:
Medvedev helpfully reminding everyone of the stakes: “Displacement of the ruling [Ukrainian] bandera regime is, though not openly stated, the most important and inevitable goal which must, and will be achieved.” https://t.co/rEueEyhB6j
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) December 28, 2023
Question by RIA Novosti:
The collective West, having wasted almost all of its weapons, starts to push the Kiev regime to engage in talks in 2024. Is that possible?Answer:
What about the talks in 2024? It’s all perfectly clear.1. The special military operation will continue, with its aim still being the disarmament of the Ukrainian forces, and abandonment of neo-nazi ideology by the present-day state of Ukraine.
2. Displacement of the ruling bandera regime is, though not openly stated, the most important and inevitable goal which must, and will be achieved.
3. Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Nikolaev, Kiev, as well as many others are Russian cities, temporarily occupied. All of them are still marked by the colours of yellow and blue on the maps and pads.And so, yes. The “talks” are possible, of course. Russia never rejected them – unlike the mad authorities of Ukraine. Such “talks” have no time limits. They can go on till full defeat and surrender of the North Atlantic Alliance’s bandera forces.
And, by the way, I’d like to inform you that since January 1, 2023, the Armed Forces of Russian Federation have accepted half a million people as servicemen under contract.
I will once again note for you all that Russia is at war not with Ukraine, but with NATO regardless of what the US or its NATO allies might like to think.
Which is why giving anonymous quotes like this on background IS NOT HELPING! (emphasis mine)
With U.S. and European aid to Ukraine now in serious jeopardy, the Biden administration and European officials are quietly shifting their focus from supporting Ukraine’s goal of total victory over Russia to improving its position in an eventual negotiation to end the war, according to a Biden administration official and a European diplomat based in Washington. Such a negotiation would likely mean giving up parts of Ukraine to Russia.
The White House and Pentagon publicly insist there is no official change in administration policy — that they still support Ukraine’s aim of forcing Russia’s military completely out of the country. But along with the Ukrainians themselves, U.S. and European officials are now discussing the redeployment of Kyiv’s forces away from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s mostly failed counteroffensive into a stronger defensive position against Russian forces in the east, according to the administration official and the European diplomat, and confirmed by a senior administration official. This effort has also involved bolstering air defense systems and building fortifications, razor wire obstructions and anti-tank obstacles and ditches along Ukraine’s northern border with Belarus, these officials say. In addition, the Biden administration is focused on rapidly resurrecting Ukraine’s own defense industry to supply the desperately needed weaponry the U.S. Congress is balking at replacing.
The administration official told POLITICO Magazine this week that much of this strategic shift to defense is aimed at shoring up Ukraine’s position in any future negotiation. “That’s been our theory of the case throughout — the only way this war ends ultimately is through negotiation,” said the official, a White House spokesperson who was given anonymity because they are not authorized to speak on the record. “We want Ukraine to have the strongest hand possible when that comes.” The spokesperson emphasized, however, that no talks are planned yet, and that Ukrainian forces are still on the offensive in places and continue to kill and wound thousands of Russian troops. “We want them to be in a stronger position to hold their territory. It’s not that we’re discouraging them from launching any new offensive,” the spokesperson added.
For Biden, navigating the nearly two-year-old war in the middle of a tough election campaign — with former President Donald Trump and other Republican candidates openly mocking his efforts — will prove tricky at best. As it helps Ukraine shift to a more defensive posture, the Biden administration can’t appear to be handing the advantage to Putin after insisting since the war began in February 2022 that it stands fully behind Zelenskyy’s pledge of victory over Moscow.
“Those discussions [about peace talks] are starting, but [the administration] can’t back down publicly because of the political risk” to Biden, said a congressional official who is familiar with the administration’s thinking and who was granted anonymity to speak freely.
Over the past year — with U.S. military support flagging fast on Capitol Hill and Zelenskyy’s once-vaunted counteroffensive failing since it was launched in June — Biden has shifted from promising the U.S. would back Ukraine for “as long as it takes,” to saying the U.S. will provide support “as long as we can” and contending that Ukraine has won “an enormous victory already. Putin has failed.”
Some analysts believe that is code for: Get ready to declare a partial victory and find a way to at least a truce or ceasefire with Moscow, one that would leave Ukraine partially divided.
“Biden’s victory comment has the virtue of being true,” said George Beebe, a former chief of Russia analysis for the CIA who is now head of strategy for the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. But “time has become a stark disadvantage when it comes to Ukraine’s manpower and industrial capacity, and that’s true even if the West continues its support. The longer this goes on the more we’re going to have to concede up front just to get the Russians to the negotiating table.”
A shift to defense could buy Ukraine the time it needs to eventually force Putin into an acceptable compromise. “It’s very likely that going to a defensive posture would allow the Ukrainians to conserve resources while making future Russian progress look unlikely,” said Anthony Pfaff, an intelligence expert at the U.S. Army War College who co-authored a study that anticipated Putin’s Ukraine invasion years before it happened.
The European diplomat based in Washington said that the European Union is also raising the threat of expediting Ukraine’s membership in NATO to “put the Ukrainians in the best situation possible to negotiate” with Moscow.
The senior Biden administration official told POLITICO Magazine that all these factors — the resistance in Congress and Ukraine’s internal politics — were playing into the new discussions with Kyiv about redeploying toward a defensive posture. “The other wild card is how much the weather is going to be a factor. As they decide how they’re going to posture themselves in the next two to three months, it’s going to become physically harder to operate and go on the offensive.”
One problem, of course, is that Putin understands these stakes all too well — especially given the surging poll numbers for Trump, who has suggested both that he’d swiftly cut a deal with Russia over Ukraine and order the U.S. to depart from, or at least downgrade, NATO. Militarily, the biggest concern may be that Putin could go on the offensive in the spring with major air support that he’s avoided until now but could deploy as Ukraine runs low on defensive missiles. Politically, the worry is that Putin won’t go near a negotiation until he sees who the next U.S. president is.
In late September Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defense minister, said the Russians had an “activity plan until 2025,” and the next month Putin declared that Ukraine would have a “week to live” if arms supplies from Western countries were to end.
Much more at the link!
The Russians read our news reporting, commentary, think tank assessments, etc. Stuff like this only confirms to them that Putin’s strategy of seeking time is working and will, eventually, allow him to achieve victory. If we’re not going to give Ukraine what they need when they need because we’re scared of Putin, which is the reality of the past 673 days, then the least US officials can do is shut the fuck up so as not to reinforce Putin’s belief that he’s winning.
Avdiivka and the Avdiivka front (machine translations after the tweets):
важкі бої у напрямку Новокалинове, Очеретине, Степовому, АКХЗ 😔
вони лізуть з усіх щілин, використовують важкі бомби
НАШИМ потрібен бк, дрони і надійний тил🙏🏼 тому більше дронів = менше кацапів
(рр – [email protected])
великий збір для ССО, 53, 116, 47 та 110 бригад 🙏🏼 pic.twitter.com/t9cjvdYl89
— ⚒️ яна східна (@jana_skhidna) December 28, 2023
the walls of Avdiyivka say: “death to the enemies!”
most of all, I want to see fewer katsaps 🙏🏼 and for the defenders of Avdos to be alive 🙏🏼
BIG and the last collection this year for 500 FPV and 500 activation boards for the Avdiiv direction
target: 9.2 🍋
🍯 https://send.monobank.ua/jar/5PHeGYF8XV
Avdiivka is 🇺🇦
And:
heavy battles in the direction of Novokalynove, Ocheretyne, Stepovoye, AKHZ 😔
they climb out of all cracks, use heavy bombs
OURS need anti-aircraft guns, drones and a reliable rear 🙏🏼 so more drones = less katsaps
(yy – [email protected])
large collection for SSO, 53, 116, 47 and 110 brigades 🙏🏼
FPV of the 47th Brigade of Ukraine makes Russian BTR-82A disappear. Stepove area, Avdiivka front https://t.co/2ol6ANz5lJ pic.twitter.com/0mm3LmeI3P
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 28, 2023
For those who worried what happens with abounded Russian equipment. Falcon Group of the 116th Brigade together with Khorne Group finishing off two Russian tanks. Stepove area, Avdiivka front. https://t.co/7p24wM6Sof pic.twitter.com/w6dWEkGOFQ
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 28, 2023
Synkivka, Kupyansk front, Kharkiv Oblast:
Annotated footage of the Russian kamikaze charge on Syn'kyvka, Kuypans'k direction, recorded earlier. Russian armoured group was completely destroyed within minutes of arriving at the firing distance of the Ukrainian forces. pic.twitter.com/R5rouSjBNV
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) December 28, 2023
14 Brigade and 30th Brigade of Ukraine destroying Russian column. Synkivka, Kharkiv region. https://t.co/TP5INyGGq4 https://t.co/fLOonr4PNj pic.twitter.com/zQKiTzDdJl
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 28, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos, so here’s this year’s Christmas post from Patron’s official Instagram:
Here’s the machine translation of the caption:
Tonight is the same Holy Night, the silent night.
And tonight we will try to gather with our families to close our eyes together and whisper something (they say it’s a prayer).There will be delicious food on the table, and we will have a traditional meal: “Patron, ew, stay away”. Tom will be hiding somewhere, because he is even more introverted on holidays.
And I’ll be looking at them from under the table, maybe waiting for someone to miss with a sausage… but in reality I’ll be admiring everyone.
How wonderful it is to have a family. I often visit shelters, and the only thing dogs and cats dream of is to have a place under someone’s table. And no matter if a sausage falls, someone will pick it up, put their hand down to you, and you will lick it. And someone will give you a smile, or maybe a hug. This is the greatest happiness in the world, believe me. ❤️
If you have a family but don’t have much contact with them, today is the day to do it. At least make a phone call, send a message, put a heart on their Viber card.
If you don’t have a family, then… No, wait, that’s not true. The whole civilized world is your family. And I am also your family. So I put my heart right here. ❤️Today is a time of miracles. And now more than ever I want to ask you to make a miracle in the form of donations. A little bit for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, a little bit for sick children, a little bit for animals, you can also donate to my foundation, as we are currently helping an injured sapper. And you are so good that you donated money to my Foundation, so that when a terrible event happened, the fairies of the Foundation had a large amount of money to send for treatment.
And at such moments I know that even if I was a naughty boy, a miracle will happen to me. Because I have you, and you have me. Let’s be miracles for each other❤️
A premature Christmas lick for everyone 👅
The kind that you might not be allowed to touch because it’s “for the holidays,” but you can’t help yourself☺️
Open thread!