(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Air raid alerts were once again activated of large portions of Ukraine this morning.
⚡️Air raid alert reported in Kyiv Oblast.
Air raid alerts were activated in Kyiv Oblast at around 7 a.m. on Jan. 5, the Kyiv Oblast Military Administration reported.
Ukraine’s Air Force has also warned of the threat of Russian drone attacks in Kherson, Kirovohrad,…
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) January 5, 2024
⚡️Air raid alert reported in Kyiv Oblast.
Air raid alerts were activated in Kyiv Oblast at around 7 a.m. on Jan. 5, the Kyiv Oblast Military Administration reported.
Ukraine’s Air Force has also warned of the threat of Russian drone attacks in Kherson, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Chernivtsi, and Khmelnytskyi oblasts.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Enduring this year means enduring the entire war – address by the President of Ukraine
5 January 2024 – 20:16
I wish good health to the Ukrainian men and women!
I just had a phone talk with President of Türkiye Erdoğan. It was a very substantive discussion. As always, we are using every day of this week to intensify our international efforts so that this year starts yielding results from the first weeks.
I expressed gratitude to President Erdoğan for the achieved level of cooperation in various areas, including defense. We have joint projects that are already successful, and this year, we must do even more to strengthen our states and our nations.
Much depends on Ukrainian-Turkish cooperation, especially security in our region, the Black Sea, and worldwide – including food security. I am thankful to President Erdoğan personally and to all of Türkiye for supporting our work on the maritime export corridor from Ukraine. As of today, over 14 million tonnes of cargo have been transported through the corridor since its inception – nearly five hundred vessels. It is a big gain – both economically and in terms of security and geopolitics. We demonstrate that we can restore security to our region despite all existing threats. We see how the strength of our partnership adds strength to our entire region.
Today, I discussed our work on the Peace Formula with President Erdoğan. I informed him about the preparation for a new advisors’ meeting scheduled to take place in Davos in January and extended an invitation to a representative from Türkiye. Türkiye confirmed its participation.
Each country’s involvement in this collaborative effort, now with the work of advisors and later involving leaders, will demonstrate the importance of international law functioning at its full capacity, starting from the UN Charter and all other norms that guarantee respect for nations and the territorial integrity of states.
Special attention was given to the point of the Peace Formula concerning the return of all prisoners of war and deportees. I discussed this today with President Erdoğan, emphasizing the return of Ukrainian children abducted by Russians, as well as the return of prisoners of war and those facing repression in the occupied territories, particularly in Crimea. Türkiye’s mediation is crucial for the release of Crimean Tatars and all others – adults and children, military and civilians, held in Russian captivity.
We are working with all partners to ensure that Ukraine receives an adequate volume of security packages this month. We already have another defensive step from Germany for Ukraine, including missiles for air defense, 155mm artillery, and other essential items. Thank you! It’s a very timely package. We are expecting similar steps from our other partners, including the United States, to ensure that Russian terror cannot prevail this winter, just as it couldn’t last year.
Of course, I am always in touch with the military and our commanders. Every day, every night of this year has seen new intense battles. The most intense fighting is in Avdiivka, near Maryinka, Bahmut, Lyman, Kupiansk, the southern part of our country. The work of our soldiers is absolutely heroic – all the forces of defense and security, every brigade on the front lines, every unit, everyone working in defense, and everyone providing assistance.
Our state’s top priority remains unchanged – to ensure everything necessary for Ukraine’s defense and our active operations. Ammunition, drones, equipment, personnel. Enduring this year means enduring this entire war. It’s a crucial and decisive time. Grateful to everyone who realizes this, who helps the state become stronger and who gives our soldiers the ability to defeat the enemy.
Thank you, guys, for your precision! Thank you for your resilience! Thanks to everyone who adds strength to Ukraine!
Glory to our people!
Glory to Ukraine!
The cost:
We owe our freedom and lives to individuals like Oleksandr Korol (born 2002) and Dmytro Bohdanov (born 2001), who went from being best friends and baptizing one another's kid to serving together in the military and making the ultimate sacrifice in action. Rest in glory pic.twitter.com/GD64POtSD8
— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) January 5, 2024
Last December, Mriya Foundation fulfilled the dreams of children of war prisoners. Among a busload of gifts, one stood out—a mobile phone. The boy took it, turned away, tears streaming down his face. In stunned silence, volunteers discovered the child's dream: his dad, in a… pic.twitter.com/6eD2txbEMo
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) January 5, 2024
Last December, Mriya Foundation fulfilled the dreams of children of war prisoners. Among a busload of gifts, one stood out—a mobile phone. The boy took it, turned away, tears streaming down his face. In stunned silence, volunteers discovered the child’s dream: his dad, in a Russian prison, would call him on that very phone.
Since then, the boy has always kept the phone close.
Two days ago, the boy’s father finally called.
Soldier is coming home.
You don't need translation. pic.twitter.com/2bY2n5dwJt— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 5, 2024
Kyiv:
/2. For better understanding. Warhead does not match the shape of the missile. It’s located inside of it. Marked with red on the second image. https://t.co/vTwV5BBTvM
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 5, 2024
The Donetsk front:
russian air defense on fire 🔥
In one week, three enemy Buk M2 air defense systems were destroyed on the Donetsk axis.
📹: @SOF_UKR pic.twitter.com/YR2DHMdGEq
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 5, 2024
/2. Videos of the detonation of the 2S19 Msta-S. pic.twitter.com/wjlUBB1QSH
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 5, 2024
/4. Geolocation of Msta-S detonation and civilian buildings shown by Russians. (Petrovskoho St.125 and 123) pic.twitter.com/Qxl0WaTexJ
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 5, 2024
Kherson Oblast:
Strikes on the Russian 9K33 Osa air and BUK- M3 air defense systems. The results of the strike on BUK are unclear, OSA is destroyed. Kherson region.
OSA location- (46.4129170, 32.4200280)https://t.co/dndauyAu2k pic.twitter.com/G2LJkC74Nd— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 5, 2024
Zaporizhzhia front:
Two tightly parked Russian 2S9 NONA self-propelled 120mm mortars destroyed, as said, by HIMARS strike. Zaporizhzhia front. https://t.co/eEJjYbF2PG pic.twitter.com/5w1h1YEDOf
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 5, 2024
And we all know what time it must be!
Saki, Russian occupied Crimea:
I want to revise this post after being notified by Dmitri (@wartranslated). I quoted Crimea Wind, which is usually quite solid, but they used a Pro-Russian source which is rather dubious. The actual number of casualties is unclear. It could be less, and it could be more.
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) January 5, 2024
Kremlyovskaya Tabakerka is a fake channel run by someone with a decent sense of humour but zero credibility nonetheless. For instance, they recently claimed that enraged Putin wants to send Kirkorov to Avdiivka to assault Ukrainian positions as infantry after the latter took part…
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) January 5, 2024
Kremlyovskaya Tabakerka is a fake channel run by someone with a decent sense of humour but zero credibility nonetheless. For instance, they recently claimed that enraged Putin wants to send Kirkorov to Avdiivka to assault Ukrainian positions as infantry after the latter took part in the infamous naked party.
I’m quite convinced the channel is run by Russians to obfuscate reality. It is posting deliberately anti-Russian sentiment and keeps the comments always open to attract attention.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) January 5, 2024
For you drone enthusiasts:
The nightmare for occupiers.
Ukrainian-made Vampire battle drone destroys enemy's armored vehicles and positions.
📹: 28th Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/pUOgqz53By
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 5, 2024
And for you counter-drone enthusiasts:
Avenger air defense system shoots down Shahedes https://t.co/qvFYji1YPv pic.twitter.com/1dVFE1w8jU
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 5, 2024
Misinformation Warfare:
This is just amazing. Visegrad takes rumours from Telegram/NAFO jokers and posts as "unconfirmed reports". Huge channels on Telegram take this info from Visegrad to report the same. We are our own biggest enemies.
There is zero intelligence that Gerasimov suffered in the Crimea… pic.twitter.com/nUWnYrGqmI
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) January 5, 2024
This is just amazing. Visegrad takes rumours from Telegram/NAFO jokers and posts as “unconfirmed reports”. Huge channels on Telegram take this info from Visegrad to report the same. We are our own biggest enemies.
There is zero intelligence that Gerasimov suffered in the Crimea attack, or that he was in Crimea at all.
The Wall Street Journal‘s Yarislav Trofimov has a deep dive excerpt from his forthcoming book on what actually happened at the Istanbul peace talks in 2022: (emphasis mine)
What really happened at Istanbul peace talks in 2022? As indispensable U.S. aid to Ukraine remains stalled in Congress, some Republicans (and Putin) argue that Ukraine blew its best chance for peace. This excerpt from my new book paints the real story. https://t.co/I831614j39
— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) January 5, 2024
The lead Ukrainian negotiator, David Arakhamia, pointed to a bottle of sanitizing gel on the table, covered by a crisp white cloth, as Russian and Ukrainian peace delegations gathered in Istanbul’s Dolmabahçe Palace.
“That’s an antiseptic,” Arakhamia told his Russian counterpart, President Vladimir Putin’s adviser Vladimir Medinsky.
“Ah, I thought it’s vodka,” Medinsky joked.
There was plenty of tension behind the jovial appearances during that pivotal meeting on March 29, 2022. Dmytro Kuleba, the Ukrainian foreign minister, had just publicly advised Ukrainian negotiators not to accept any beverages from the Russians and not to touch any surfaces, lest they be poisoned. After all, Russian forces were still at the gates of Kyiv, trying to overthrow President Volodymyr Zelensky and his government.
What actually happened on that momentous Tuesday and in the immediate aftermath has since turned into a matter of fundamental disagreement among Ukraine, Western nations and Russia. The Istanbul meeting has also emerged as a key point of discord in America’s own debate about the war, as indispensable U.S. aid to Ukraine remains stalled in Congress because of Republican opposition. Some argue that Ukraine blew a chance at the time to end the war. The real story paints a different, and far more complicated, picture.
The first meeting between Ukrainian and Russian negotiators happened on Feb. 28, 2022, in the Belarusian city of Gomel, four days after Russian tanks crossed the Ukrainian border. At that encounter, Medinsky recited a long list of the Kremlin’s demands. It included the replacement of Zelensky’s administration with a puppet regime, Ukrainian troops handing over all their tanks and artillery, the arrest and trial of “Nazis”—a Russian euphemism for any Ukrainian opposed to Moscow’s rule—and the restoration of Russian as Ukraine’s official language. Medinsky even demanded that city streets named after Ukrainian national heroes be returned to their old Soviet names.
“We listened to them, and we realized that these are not people sent for talks but for our capitulation,” recalled one of the Ukrainian negotiators, Zelensky’s adviser Mykhailo Podolyak. Yet to gain time the Ukrainians agreed to keep talking.
On March 10, Kuleba flew to the Turkish resort town of Antalya to meet his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, in their first encounter since the war began. “I asked Lavrov a simple question behind closed doors in Antalya: Minister, what do you want? That is all I wanted to know,” Kuleba recalled. Lavrov didn’t reply, launching instead into the usual Russian litany of allegations that Ukraine had turned into a neo-Nazi den hellbent on undermining Russia.
In the 19 days between the meeting in Antalya and the Istanbul talks, the battlefield situation shifted dramatically in Ukraine’s favor. All around Kyiv, nimble Ukrainian forces inflicted defeat after defeat on over-extended Russian units.
Throughout the talks, the issue of Ukrainian membership in NATO was a critical part of the agenda. In the first weeks of the war, Zelensky indicated that Ukraine could forgo its dream of joining NATO in exchange for binding security guarantees from the West and Russia alike. Ukrainian negotiators also showed flexibility on Russian demands to reduce the size of Ukraine’s military and freeze the issue of who controls Crimea, a peninsula occupied by Moscow since 2014, for the foreseeable future. None of this, of course, was enough to stop the Russian onslaught on the ground and the Russian bombs and missiles that kept raining down on Ukrainian cities.
As Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan opened the Istanbul talks on March 29, the mandate of the Ukrainian team was to push for a Russian withdrawal to pre-invasion lines while showing openness on many key issues, with actual decisions deferred to a planned meeting between Zelensky and Putin.
Russia’s major demand, in addition to keeping Ukraine out of NATO, was to limit its ability to defend itself in the future. According to draft documents later revealed publicly by Putin, Moscow wanted Ukraine’s armed forces capped at 85,000 troops, 342 tanks and 519 artillery pieces. Ukrainian negotiators in Istanbul countered with a proposal for an army of 250,000 troops, roughly its prewar level, with 800 tanks and 1,900 artillery pieces.
Just as the conference started, Russia’s defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, made a striking announcement from Moscow. The main goals of Russia’s “special military operation” had been generally fulfilled, he said. Hours later, Medinsky appeared at a press conference in Istanbul with even more astonishing news. The talks held that day had achieved significant progress, he announced, and Moscow had decided to take steps to de-escalate the conflict. Battered Russian troops started to withdraw from the Kyiv region and other parts of northern Ukraine.
According to Putin’s version of events, Ukrainian negotiators in Istanbul had accepted most of Russia’s demands. “The agreements were practically reached,” he lamented months later. “Our troops left the center of Ukraine, Kyiv, to create conditions” for further talks to finalize that accord, he said.
Ukraine has vehemently disputed that account. Neither side made binding commitments in Istanbul, according to Kuleba. “There was no deal,” he said. “To engage in a conversation and to commit yourself to something are completely different things.” As for the Russian pullback, Ukrainian and American officials say Putin had no choice but to withdraw by late March because of Ukrainian military successes on the ground.
Col. Igor Girkin, a retired Russian intelligence officer and the former defense minister of a Russian proxy statelet in Donbas, agreed. “If leaving the seized territory has become inevitable, it’s best to do it before your troops are routed by the adversary,” he said shortly after the Istanbul announcements. “We will still need these troops—the war will be long.” Girkin has since been imprisoned in Moscow for criticizing Russian military failures.
On the evening of March 29, as the negotiators saluted each other in Istanbul and made plans to reconvene for the next round of talks, Ukrainian troops were already entering the town of Bucha near Kyiv. What the Ukrainians discovered there rendered moot any understanding reached in Istanbul.
Like other northwestern suburbs in Kyiv’s green belt across the Irpin River, Bucha was a relaxed town of single-family homes and five-story housing blocks set amid pine trees, playgrounds, and parks. It had a handful of resorts, with swimming pools for the guests, and an equestrian club. As Ukrainian forces advanced into Bucha, they stumbled upon a horrifying sight: Dozens of bodies lay rotting under the rain on Yablunska Street and in surrounding areas. Some corpses were missing limbs, likely eaten by dogs, while others had brains spilling from cracked skulls.
As the soldiers probed further, they found several men, many of them stripped naked to their waists, executed and lying on the ground in the courtyard of 144 Yablunska Street. On sidewalks, in ditches and in improvised graves, there were other bodies with their hands tied. Some bore the signs of torture: poked-out eyes, cut-off fingers.
More than 450 civilians were killed in Bucha during the month the town was under Russian occupation. Atrocities had been occurring throughout occupied Ukraine, especially in Mariupol. But in Bucha, the Russian soldiers fled so fast that they hadn’t had the time to remove the evidence and conceal the scale of the slaughter.
As the footage from Bucha spread on social media, Zelensky—like most Ukrainians—was overwhelmed with fury. “The essence of evil has come to our land—murderers, torturers, rapists and looters who call themselves an army,” he said in an address to Ukrainians. “They have killed consciously, and with pleasure.”
Even though the Ukrainian and Russian negotiators remained in touch, fine-tuning the documents drafted in Istanbul the previous week, Zelensky signaled that the killings uncovered in Bucha had changed everything. “What has happened here is genocide,” he said, stern-faced, during his visit to the town—the first time he had left Kyiv since the invasion. “It is very hard to keep talking when you see what has happened here.”
There was no contrition in Moscow after the horrors of Bucha came to light. “It’s a clear provocation,” thundered Lavrov. Not a single Ukrainian civilian had been harmed, declared Russia’s ministry of defense. Medinsky said the Ukrainians must have staged the atrocities in Bucha because its name rhymed with the English word “butcher.”
On April 9, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson arrived in a Kyiv transformed. He was one of the first Western leaders to brave the trip since the invasion. Less than two weeks had elapsed since the Istanbul talks and, despite Zelensky’s outrage, the Russian and Ukrainian negotiating teams still pursued contacts via Zoom.
“I was a bit worried at that stage,” Johnson recalled. “I could not see for the life of me what the deal could be, and I thought that any deal with Putin was going to be pretty sordid.” Sitting down with Zelensky in Kyiv, the British prime minister delivered his pitch: “Nobody can be more Ukrainian than Ukrainians, it is not for me to tell you what your war objectives can be, but as far as I am concerned, Putin must fail and Ukraine must be entitled to retain full sovereignty and independence. …. We’re not directly fighting, you are. It’s the Ukrainians who are fighting and dying. But we would back Ukraine a thousand percent.”
Zelensky didn’t need much convincing. The conversation quickly shifted to the concrete ways in which the United Kingdom could assist the Ukrainian armed forces, such as the provision of military supplies. It was the first trickle in what would become a flood of increasingly sophisticated Western weapons. Meanwhile, online talks between Ukrainian and Russian teams fizzled away.
In the Kremlin, Putin was certain that Washington, rather than London, had forced Zelensky to abandon talks in the hope of exhausting Russia in a protracted war. Senior Russian officials kept angrily raising this point in meetings with their American counterparts. “Utter bulls—,” a senior Biden administration official told me. “I know for a fact the United States didn’t pull the plug on that. We were watching it carefully.”
Zelensky’s new position, which hasn’t changed since, was to demand a full withdrawal of Russian troops from all Ukrainian lands conquered since 2014, including Crimea, and the prosecution of Russian officials suspected of war crimes.
“In Istanbul, we still didn’t understand the type of war that Russia was waging, its genocidal intent,” Podolyak explained. “Once we returned from Istanbul, and the Russians left the Kyiv region, we saw the beastly crimes that they had committed there. And we understood that Russia will try to annihilate Ukraine no matter what.”
That’s enough for tonight.
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