Foreign Policy

Here’s today’s assessment from Britain’s MOD:

There was no updated map from British Military Intelligence today. Nor did Chuck Pfarrer update his mapping of the battle for Sievierodonetsk. And given it is the weekend, there was also not a DOD backgrounder today.

While President Zelenskyy didn’t give an address today, Ukraine’s First Lady Olena Zelenska’s interview with The Guardian was published today.

In the early hours of 24 February, Olena Zelenska became aware of the sound of muffled booms somewhere in the distance. As she drifted towards wakefulness, she realised the sounds she was registering could not be fireworks. Her eyes snapped open; she discovered she was alone in the bed. She jumped up and hurried to the next room, where she found her husband, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, already dressed for work in a suit and tie.

“What’s going on?” she asked him.

“It’s started,” he told her.

“I had the feeling I was inside a parallel reality, that I was dreaming,” Zelenska says, describing the moment when normal life was interrupted, for her family and her country. Soon afterwards, her husband left for the presidential compound in the centre of Kyiv, to chair a security council meeting that would decide on the initial response to Vladimir Putin’s shocking full-scale invasion of Ukraine. He told his wife she should wait for him to call later in the day with instructions.

Left alone, she went to check on the couple’s two children, nine-year-old Kyrylo and 17-year-old Oleksandra. They were already awake and dressed, and they seemed to understand what was happening. Zelenska began to throw together a suitcase of possessions, scurrying down to the basement with the children and their security detail every time the booms got too close. At one point, she was standing on the first floor of the presidential villa and looking out of the window when a fighter jet screamed by, loud and low. She wasn’t sure if it was Ukrainian or Russian.

“It was a surreal feeling … like I was playing a computer game and had to pass certain levels to find myself back at home. But I was also keeping it together, and I had this weird smile on my face all day, because I was trying not to show the children panic. We just followed the orders of security, went where we were told,” she says.

In the evening, she was able to see her husband again, briefly, though she won’t say where. He told her that she and the children would be taken to a safe place. They hugged, but there was no time for tears or sentimentality. It was only later that she allowed the thought to creep in: she might never see him again.

Zelenska greets me with a gentle handshake. “Thank you for coming,” she says in English, before switching into Ukrainian.

Back in those first days of the war, there was a terrifying sense that anything was possible, as missiles rained down on targets across the country and Russian troops advanced on Kyiv from three directions. “According to the available intelligence, the enemy marked me as target No 1 and my family as target No 2,” President Zelenskiy said in one of his early video addresses. His wife does not know what intelligence the assessment was based on, and Zelenskiy never told her about any specific threat to the family. She tries not to think too much about it, “otherwise I’ll get paranoid”. But she was alert to the possibilities that seizing the first family could provide the Russians.

“Of course, it’s possible to exert pressure on the president through his family, and I wouldn’t want him to have to make the choice between his family and his responsibilities as president. So if there is even the smallest chance of that, you have to remove it,” she says. She speaks in a soft voice with carefully enunciated consonants, punctuating her answers with deep sighs.

So while Zelenskiy ignored suggestions from western leaders that he should leave Kyiv and set up a government-in-exile in western Ukraine or Poland, he did send Zelenska and the children away to relative safety. She is understandably cagey about exactly where she spent those two months – “The less I say, the safer I am” – but says she moved regularly, and insists she remained inside Ukraine the whole time. At times, she could hear the air-raid sirens that have become the background soundtrack for many millions of Ukrainian lives. Oleksandra and Kyrylo never left her side.

President Zelenskiy has been through more surprising life twists in the past five years than most people experience in a lifetime. When I interviewed him in February 2020, he was desperate to change the topic from Donald Trump, after spending his first year in office dragged into Trump’s impeachment. But he outlasted the Trump drama and he is doing his best to overcome Putin, too. Even the president’s bitterest political rivals, who feared that a comedy actor was not the right person to take on Putin in Ukraine’s hour of need, have conceded that this wartime leadership has been both courageous and inspirational.

Zelenska claims she is not surprised by how impressive her husband has been. “He’s someone who, more than anyone I know, whenever there were situations where everyone says it’s impossible, he always saw it through and got it done, and was able to inspire others, too.”

I ask for an example and she tells a story about how, once, her writing team had to compose a song for him to sing as part of a sketch. The shooting was the next day, and they had nothing. At 10pm she went to Zelenskiy and told him that probably they’d have to abandon the idea of having a song. “He said, ‘Fine, you go home.’ And he sat down to write it himself, and two hours later it was done. And it wasn’t bad! He just never gives up, even when all around him do.”

It’s hard to take the comparison seriously: writing a song for a comedy sketch hardly seems like preparation for leading a country through an invasion by the second largest army in the world. But, clearly, she is right that something in her husband’s character has turned him into an unexpectedly competent wartime leader. Part of it is certainly his communication skills. “He remembers texts very quickly, and can say them confidently,” she says. “He knows how to work with cameras. He is not acting – he just has the skills to do that well. For me, I find it incredibly difficult to speak in public, I get stressed every time, but for him it’s natural.”

Another ingredient is discipline. Because of his jokey manner and her more austere bearing, people often assume she is the disciplinarian in the relationship while he is the chilled creative. “But, actually, discipline is his middle name,” she says. “The alarm goes off and he gets up, brushes his teeth, gets dressed and leaves, and it takes him five minutes, whereas I’m rolling about for half an hour. He has these qualities, psychologically, to withstand stress and to keep discipline.”

She claims, rather surprisingly, that she has not noticed any difference in his mood over the past months. Does that mean he’s bottling it all up? Is all the stress going to take its toll after the war is over? “I’m not worried for his psychological health, but his physical health – he always gets ill after difficult periods. He relaxes, and then he goes and picks up a virus or something. I am trying to look after him in this regard but, like all men, he doesn’t like to check his temperature or his blood pressure. But I try to get through to him by making a scene.”

Much, much, much more at the link!

BG Volodymyr Karpenko, the the head of logistics for Ukraine’s land forces, and Denys Sharapov, Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Defense (DMOD) for Procurement and Support for Weapons and Equipment, did an interview with National Defense, which is the publication of the National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA). For full disclosure, in 2014 I gave the keynote address and functioned as the on site master of ceremonies/conference coordinator* for one of their conferences in 2014 that dealt with human geography, geospatial analysis, and defense. Here’s BG Karpenko’s and DMOD thoughts on what Ukraine needs to continue to prosecute the war against Putin’s re-invasion:

Our readers are about 1,800 corporate members of the defense industrial base in the United States. What message do you have for them? And what do you need from them urgently?

Sharapov: The [Ministry of Defense] is concentrating currently on fulfilling all the needs of the armed forces. You asked a question about needs. First, you have to understand that the frontline is 2,500 kilometers long. The frontline where there is active combat in more than 1,000 kilometers long. That’s like from Kyiv to Berlin. … As of today, all the people in all of our armed forces and within the defense and security sector is up to one million people. And we have to support them all. We have to supply them with small arms, with personal protection gear and with the means of communication.

And of course, to carry out a war in this day and age, we need heavy weapons — that’s primarily artillery systems. As of today, our need for heavy artillery systems is measured by hundreds. That’s why we also need a huge number of rounds for these artillery systems.

I am not going to name the exact number we need. That is information for internal use. I’m just going to tell you I think to fulfill those needs we have to engage the entire military industrial complex of the entire world.

We have received a large number of weapon systems, but unfortunately with such a massively expendable resource, it only covers 10 to 15 percent of our needs. We need artillery, we need artillery rounds, infantry fighting vehicles, combat vehicles, tanks. We really need air-defense systems and the multiple launch rocket system.

Also, high-precision weapon systems, because we believe that high-precision weapon systems will give us an edge over the enemy, the upper hand in this war.

There is a debate in the United States about whether to send Ukraine armed Predator drones. How important are they to your fight?

Sharapov: The party that will win in this war will be the party that will first start using contemporary high precision equipment and weapon systems. And those drones that you mentioned, they are a part of the modernized, highly accurate, highly precise, modern equipment. It gives us an advantage that allows us to accurately strike the enemy.

Gen. Karpenko: Regarding the first question, I want to add something to what the deputy minister has said in terms of the need for equipment and armaments. I just want you to understand the intensity of the conflict. While the deputy minister was talking, I drafted some numbers to just show you the intensity of combat along those … kilometers where the combat is most active.

Think about this: one brigade occupies around 40 kilometers of the fence line. That means that to cover the active combat conflict we need 40 brigades. Every brigade is 100 infantry fighting vehicles, 30 tanks, 54 artillery systems — just for one brigade, and we have 40 of them.

I’m not going to talk about the anti-tank guided missiles or anti-tank guided weapons for now. I’m just talking about heavy weapons. As of today, we have approximately 30 to 40, sometimes up to 50 percent of losses of equipment as a result of active combat. So, we have lost approximately 50 percent. … Approximately 1,300 infantry fighting vehicles have been lost, 400 tanks, 700 artillery systems.

That is a mathematical estimation we can make based on the length of the frontline and the intensity of the conflict. So, I’m giving you this estimate just for you to understand how significant the requirement is based on the intensity of the conflict.

So, think about it. If the current need for artillery systems is 700 vehicles, that needs to be replenished because they were destroyed. And we have only received 100 vehicles for example from [foreign] aid. … Then there [are] medical needs, the air force troops, the special forces and all the other branches and services that are also fighting in this war.

Regarding the heavy armaments and in regard to the drones as you asked about: this is what the war has come down to — using heavy artillery systems. It’s close-contact warfare. So that leads to a lot of casualties.

The war that we are seeing in Ukraine right now happened the last time in 1945 when the world won over evil.

Unfortunately, today, we don’t have the technologies that would allow us to limit human casualties. We have close human contact within the warfare. And that’s why the deputy minister said correctly that the victorious side will be the party that has those [long-range, precision] technologies.

You have to understand that all of the [unmanned aerial vehicles], the armed UAVs that are needed, the kamikaze drones, they are the weapons that will allow us to extend the line of contact. So, the [increased] space between us and the enemy will limit human casualties while still increasing the efficiency of the destruction of enemy vehicles.

We need both the multiple launch rocket systems and the kamikaze drones [loitering munitions].

If we can use long-range items like the drones — like the MLRS — that will allow us to extend the effective range up to 60 kilometers, that will give us the upper hand and that will give us significant success.

And if we can increase the number of multiple launch rocket systems and kamikaze drones that will decrease the rate of consumption of artillery systems.

Why do you think it is taking so long to deliver the weapon systems?

Sharapov: You should understand that any weapon transfer is always a political decision. And very often, it’s not up to the government of one country. There are different alliances.

Very often a highly technological, highly precise weapons will contain subsystems from multiple countries. And if they were to transfer that technology, they will need to have permissions from all those countries.

And the other component is that, unfortunately, not all politicians understand the gravity of what is going on in Ukraine. Some people believe that this is not their war. This war is so far away it doesn’t concern them. But in reality, this is a war for the entire world. Unfortunately, we happen to be on the frontline of this.

Yes, we do receive a lot of support, especially the support for many nations being here at this exhibition at Eurosatory. We have heard a lot of kind words. We have heard a lot of people expressing sympathy to our situation. However, unfortunately, it is taking a long time for many people to comprehend what kind of threat Russia poses to the entire world today.

That is why we would like to take this opportunity … to draw the attention of the entire world once again that this is a war not only back in Ukraine, this is the war that impacts the entire world.

The distance from Kyiv to Paris is the same as the length of our frontline, 2,500 kilometers. That is why it is our joint goal to stop Russia advancing in this war.

Our armed forces were forced to learn how to use many weapons from all over the world more efficiently than many other armies. You have seen the proof of that all around our stand and in our videos. But because of the consumption rates, we need a lot of weapons and weapon systems.

Much, much more at the link.

Der Spiegel has done a deep dive into the artillery war in Donbas.

It’s a Sunday morning in June, somewhere on the expansive fields of the Mykolaiv region in southern Ukraine. A Ukrainian 2S1 howitzer emerges from one of the thick hedges that line the fields. The 15-ton, self-propelled gun from Soviet times – nickname: Carnation – rattles across a dirt track on its tracks before coming to a stop. Two soldiers jump out, sprint 50 meters and set up an aiming circle on a tripod. The battery commander barks the target coordinates and a cannoneer loads the weapon. With an ear-splitting roar, the gun fires off two rounds in rapid sequence before immediately moving off and disappearing into the brush, hidden from enemy drones.

It is a scene that is typical for the situation in which Ukraine currently finds itself. Almost four months after the Russian invasion, the war has transformed into an artillery duel. The fighting takes place across several kilometers against a frequently invisible enemy using heavy artillery. The goal is that of quickly firing off rounds before return fire begins raining down.

At the beginning of the offensive, when Russian troops began advancing in large columns from the north toward large Ukrainian cities like Kyiv and Kharkiv, the goal was that of luring the enemy into ambushes, where antitank weapons were waiting. Now, though, with the fight having migrated to the vast steppes of southern and eastern Ukraine, the battle has become more brutal, more unrelenting. Just like the battle fields on the Western Front in World War I, the fields of Ukraine are now being plowed up by the constant shelling. Courage, expertise and imagination are of little help when the necessary weaponry isn’t available.

“Artillery is the god of war,” says Colonel Roman Kostenko, who is observing the operation of the 2S1 howitzer from nearby. It is a well-known quote, originating with Soviet dictator Josef Stalin. Kostenko says that artillery will also be decisive in the battle to the south. Kostenko is a Ukrainian parliamentarian, but he also commands a special unit that works closely together with the artillerymen. They conduct reconnaissance missions to locate Russian positions and then pass along the coordinates.

In a more recent development, they no longer have to rely exclusively on Soviet-era weaponry, but also have modern, Western equipment available. On one of the fields that is bristling with artillery, an M777 is firing off rounds toward the Russian lines. The United States has promised 108 of these howitzers to the Ukrainian military, along with 200,000 rounds of ammunition.

The howitzers are not self-propelled, instead being towed by other vehicles. But they only weigh four tons, making them both extremely mobile and easy to hide. Furthermore, the “Triple Seven” – called “Three Axes” by the Ukrainians – has a longer range than Russian artillery and uses standardized NATO shell sizes, which can be resupplied. Norway and France have also provided artillery.

Oleksiy Arestovych says the deliveries of Western artillery are “decisive.” Without them, he says, “the enemy would now be storming Zaporizhzhia, they would have taken Lysychansk and would have surrounded Slovyansk.” Arestovych is an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. “In close combat, battalion against battalion, we win,” he says. “Our problem is that the enemy is firing at us essentially with impunity from a distance.” That, he says, explains the high Ukrainian losses of up to 100 troops each day. Ukraine, he adds, ran out of ammunition for its own rocket launchers back in early April “aside from an untouchable reserve.”

“The Russians Are Afraid of Them”

The Russians don’t have such problems. They possess plenty of artillery and munitions, and in contrast to the beginning of the war, they are concentrating all of their firepower on the Donbas. A Ukrainian commander on the eastern front has dubbed the approach “wall of fire.” They lay down a blanket of artillery fire before every attack, allowing them to overwhelm the Ukrainian defenders. And the Russians aren’t likely to run out of munitions in the foreseeable future: “They are using stocks from the Soviet era, and the Soviets didn’t skimp when it came to arms.” The commander is also full of praise for the new M777 howitzers. “The Russians are afraid of them,” he says.

The Ukrainians are now awaiting the next delivery from the West. The U.S. intends to send four M142 HIMARS multiple rocket launchers. And the British have promised several M270 systems, a multiple rocket launcher with a range of up to 80 kilometers. That’s not only twice as far as the American howitzers, but it also slightly exceeds the range of comparable Russian systems. And the Germans have promised to deliver four MARS II systems by the end of June.

The Western rocket launchers have the ability to destroy enemy artillery from a great distance. And whereas Russian rocket launchers are notoriously imprecise, with a dispersion radius of 170 meters, the HIMARS and the M270 allow for precise strikes – assuming, that is, that GPS-guided rockets are used.

“The systems will make a real difference,” says Mark Cancian, an analyst with the Washington D.C.-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies. The problem, though, is that the eight systems promised by the Americans, British and Germans are not enough to defend against the Russian advance along the entire front line. “For just the Donbas, 10 systems are likely sufficient, but it is likely that at least twice that number is necessary for the rest of the front,” says Cancian.

Kostenko, the colonel and parliamentarian, also has high hopes for the rocket launchers. Ukraine has lately been pursuing counterattacks in the southern region where he is deployed, with the mid-term goal that of recapturing territory west of the Dnipro River. Russia has captured Kherson, which gives it a bridgehead on the western bank of the river from which it could advance toward Odessa.

Currently, Kostenko says, the situation looks as follows. The Ukrainians are able to break down the initial Russian lines with the help of targeted, drone-controlled artillery. “But then they send up reserves and we aren’t able to secure the territory.” The modern multiple rocket launchers with their vast range, he says, would enable the Ukrainian soldiers to also attack Russia’s reserve lines, making it easier to hold onto territory that has been won.

The U.S., meanwhile, made its view of the weapons systems’ potency abundantly clear by making President Zelenskyy promise that Ukraine would not use the rocket launchers to fire into Russian territory. And Washington has decided not to provide so-called ATACMS rocket, which can be fired by the same launchers but have a range of up to 300 kilometers. Russian President Vladimir Putin has seemed unimpressed by the announced deliveries of the rocket launcher systems, saying they would “change nothing of substance.”

The question, though, is how rapidly Ukraine will actually be able to deploy the multiple rocket launchers. The four HIMARS systems from the U.S. have already been transported to Europe, but Ukrainian soldiers must still be trained to use them, with three weeks set aside for that training. The German systems, meanwhile, require software adjustments that could result in significant delays, perhaps even until winter.

Much, much more at the link.

I think that’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron. Now in computer generated 3D!!!!

I’ve removed the Tweet with the 3D cartoon of Patron. The people that run Patron’s social media accounts have asked people not to post or repost, tweet or retweet it.

And something new from Patron’s TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Я на це не підписувався.. 🤥 #песпатрон #патрон #патрондснс

♬ ооооо ааааарр ооооо арррр – Tik Toker

Open thread!

Ukrainians!

All our defenders!

We are now one step from the beginning of full-fledged integration with the European Union. We have a positive conclusion from the European Commission on the candidacy for Ukraine. And this is a historical achievement of all those who work for our state. The only thing left is to wait for the decision of the European Council next week. And I believe that Ukraine has done everything possible for this step to be positive as well – the decision of the European Council, i.e. the leaders of the EU states.

Ukraine deserves this positive. Ukrainian values are European values. Ukrainian institutions maintain resilience even in conditions of war. Ukrainian democratic habits have not lost their power even now. And our rapprochement with the European Union is not only positive for us. This is the greatest contribution to the future of Europe in many years.

Let me remind you now only one thing: after February 24, our country acceded to the European energy system. Our networks – Ukraine and the European Union – work in sync despite a full-scale war. Hence, even this fact alone shows everything at once – the professionalism of our people, the strength of our institutions, our ability to fulfill promises and the magnitude of Ukraine’s potential.

And I want to emphasize that Ukraine’s European integration is not something purely political, not something detached from the lives of ordinary people. On the contrary. The closer we are to other European countries, the more opportunities we will have to guarantee all Ukrainians a modern and prosperous life.

I spoke today with Mrs. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission. I thanked her and all members of the European Commission for their leadership and today’s decision. I also spoke with European Council President Charles Michel. We are coordinating our steps. And I am grateful to Charles for feeling the historical significance of these processes for both Ukraine and the future of Europe.

Today I will also speak with Prime Minister of the Netherlands Rutte. I use every opportunity for our interests, for Ukraine.

During yesterday’s visit to Kyiv by the leaders of France, Germany, Romania and Italy, it was clear what far-reaching prospects are being opened both for our country and for all Europeans if we continue to work together. And today this understanding has become even clearer. European strength, European independence and European development can be imagined truly powerful only with Ukraine.

It is interesting, by the way, how the course of history chooses the time for important decisions: the government of Ukraine abolished the agreement on visa-free regime with the Russian Federation today. Now the visa regime will be effective starting from July 1. It is difficult to overestimate the symbolism of what happened today. But no one picked the moment on purpose. This is what the course of history is. Russia itself has done everything to destroy any ties with Ukraine. Well, we are doing everything to make our ties with Europe as strong as possible.

Boris Johnson visited Kyiv today. This is already the second visit of the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom to our capital since February 24.

The negotiations are positive. We discussed the situation on the frontline and ways to achieve our victory. I am grateful to Boris for his leadership in supporting Ukraine, including with weapons. I am also grateful that we equally perceive the need for unconditional protection of our state. We talked about security guarantees for Ukraine. When we define the parameters of these guarantees, they will determine the future of Ukrainians and all Europeans for generations to come.

In general, the week was maximally useful for Ukraine – in many areas. And I would also like to thank US President Biden today for increasing American support for Ukraine every week. And this week we have significant results on the front exactly due to the support of the United States.

I have just signed new decrees on awarding our heroes. 413 combatants were awarded state awards, 29 of them posthumously.

And finally. Today I can already announce this: we managed to liberate “Tayra”, Ukrainian paramedic Yulia Payevska, from captivity. I am grateful to everyone who worked for this result. “Tayra” is already home. We will keep working to liberate everyone.

Eternal glory to all who stood up for our independence and our freedom!

Eternal memory to all who died for Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

The big news here is that the European Council has recommended that Ukraine be granted candidate status.

Ukrainians are ready to die for the European perspective.

We want them to live with us the European dream. pic.twitter.com/3SPRqkgK7l

— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) June 17, 2022

The Kyiv Independent has President Macron’s take on what is going to happen with EU candidacy for Ukraine and few other things:

French President Emmanuel Macron believes Ukraine will be granted candidate status next week, with the president’s visit to Kyiv, together with the leaders of Germany and Italy, set to unite Europe behind this decision.

“Earlier, there were different positions in Europe, so I thought it was appropriate and useful to come now, to bring together the countries that support this message of unity in the EU,” Macron said during an interview.

On June 23, the European Council is set to decide on Ukraine’s candidate status bid, with the three largest EU economies – Germany, France, and Italy – expressing support for a positive outcome.

The Elysee Palace invited several media outlets, including the Kyiv Independent, to talk about their country’s stance regarding Ukraine’s EU bid, arms shipment, and potential peace talks with Russia.

According to Macron, Ukraine won’t see peace in the near future, as he believes Russian dictator Vladimir Putin doesn’t want to negotiate.

“I know he (Putin) is not yet ready to step back, but Ukrainians resist bravely and heroically, and Ukraine is also not ready for concessions,” said Macron. “Thus, the time to talk about peace and compromises has not arrived.”

According to Marcon, no country would pressure Ukraine into making any concessions, including territorial, in order to approach peace with Russia.

“Neither France nor any other country can set conditions for Ukraine based on which peace talks should be held,” said Macron.

Meanwhile, France and Western countries are to restrain from sending tanks and planes, says Macron.

“This is an almost official position of NATO,” said Macron. “(We’ll) help Ukraine defend itself, but we are not going to war with Russia, so certain weapons, such as planes or tanks, were agreed to not be supplied.”

“And President Zelensky is aware of this,” Macron added.

Macron pointed out that France is continuing to supply Ukraine with Ceasar self-propelled gun-howitzers. Ukraine has received six, with an additional six to be delivered shortly.

“When we have such equipment, we respond if we can. In some cases, we do not have the weapons asked for, so we ask other countries and finance such shipment,” said Macron.

Macron says that his country will continue to do everything and more to help Ukraine, even if it means hurting European consumers in the short run.

“Russia blackmails (Europe) with gas, changes volumes of supply the way it likes. Cuts out supplies for some,” Macron said.

“We are aware of this and that’s why France is trying to quickly build energy sovereignty,” he said.

“Why do you think we support Ukraine, the Ukrainian army, the Ukrainian people and have adopted six packages of sanctions against Russia,” said Macron.

“Because we believe that you uphold democratic values.”

Several different things to unpack here. First, is that Macron expects that the fill EU will vote to admit Ukraine to candidate status next week. This requires a unanimous vote. All of the states, or heads of those states’ governments, that had expressed concerns – Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands – have all gone on record as supporting Ukraine’s candidacy. With the exception of Hungary and Viktor Orban. If there’s going to be a problem, that’s where it will be.

The second item here is that Macron seems to have gotten the message that Ukrainians will decide for themselves as a result of what happens on the battlefield when the war ends. Not Putin, unless he decides to surrender. And certainly not the French or the Germans.

The third and final item is that we once again see the “almost official position of NATO” to not provide Ukraine tanks or planes. I’m not sure what an almost official position is, perhaps it’s like being partially pregnant. Regardless, at some point this position is going to have either be formalized or abandoned. At the very least in terms of tanks. It would be best if it would be abandoned. And quickly.

Here’s some video of President Zelenskyy with Prime Minister Johnson:

Notice how President Zelenskyy’s body language is much more relaxed in regard to BoJo than with President Macron yesterday?

During his visit, Prime Minister Johnson announced that the British would step up a training mission for Ukrainian forces. The Telegraph has the details:

Boris Johnson offered Ukraine a UK-led military training programme, which he said could “change the equation of the war”, during a surprise visit to Kyiv on Friday.

Ukrainian forces would be drilled under the British scheme, which the Government said had the potential to train up to 10,000 soldiers every 120 days.

Mr Johnson said the programme, designed to make up for a shortage of trainers in Ukraine and informed by British Army expertise, would harness “that most powerful of forces, the Ukrainian determination to win”.

The Prime Minister said: “The UK is with you, and we will be with you until you ultimately prevail.

“As Ukrainian soldiers fire UK missiles in defence of your nation’s sovereignty, they do so also in defence of the very freedoms we take for granted.

“Two months on from my last visit, the Ukrainian grit, determination and resilience is stronger than ever, and I know that unbreakable resolve will long outlive the vain ambitions of President Putin,” Mr Johnson said in the Ukrainian capital.

“Many days of this war have proved that Great Britain’s support for Ukraine is firm and resolute. Glad to see our country’s great friend Boris Johnson in Kyiv again,” said Volodymr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president.

“We have a shared vision of how to move towards victory because that is exactly what Ukraine needs – the victory of our state,” the Ukrainian leader added.

If Ukraine accepts the offer, its soldiers will be taught “battle-winning skills for the front line” in addition to basic medical and cyber-security training and counter-explosive tactics.

The three-week training will take place outside of Ukraine and the UK will ask international partners to host the course for new and existing soldiers.

The UK trained more than 22,000 personnel between 2015, the year after the Russian annexation of Crimea, and February’s second invasion. Operation Orbital helped Ukrainians conduct their ferocious defence of their homeland, Downing St said.

The UK has sent more than £1.3billion in humanitarian and economic support to Ukraine since February 24, including military aid.

Much more at the link!

Here’s today’s assessment from Britain’s MOD:

There was no updated map from British Military Intelligence or one from Chuck Pfarrer regarding the battle of Sievierodonetsk.

There was also no DOD backgrounder today.

Ukrainian forces sank a Russian Naval tug this morning. The tug was transporting supplies, including munitions, to resupply the Russian outpost on the occupied Snake Island.

Spasatel Vasily Bekh, a tug of the russian black sea fleet, successfully demilitarized by the @UA_NAVY. The ship was transporting personnel, weapons and ammunition to the occupied Snake Island.
Moskva never be alone… pic.twitter.com/3slXr6qtEl

— Defence of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 17, 2022

In other good news in Ukraine, you may recall way back in March, that one of the updates partially dealt with a Ukrainian medic who had been captured by the Russians. The good news is that she was alive, in Russian captivity, and has now been released. She’s safely back home:

More good news: volunteer paramedic Yulia Payevska, known as Taira, has been released from Russian captivity and is now at home, president Zelensky said pic.twitter.com/8Rf1F388xt

— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) June 17, 2022

That’s enough for a Friday night.

Here’s your daily Patron!

Partron art!

This"Dog Patron" was made by my daughter. During the war, it's very important to know your heroes. For children, this is the dog Patron – the mascot of a sappers detachment engaged in mine clearance, the personification of patriotism, a national hero and the most famous dog of 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/3WTo3x0deu

— Oksana Hliebushkina (@hliebushkina) June 15, 2022

Awww!

Patron is going to be one very busy pup!!!

This is slightly larger than the entire nation of New Zealand. The minister said that Ukraine is in talks with the U.K., Italy and France to receive appropriate demining equipment which might cost millions of dollars.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) June 18, 2022

Here’s video of Patron and a hedgehog! Probably trying to get the hedgehog to enlist…

@patron__dsns

Це що таке??🤔😯 #песпатрон #патрон #патрондснс

♬ оригінальний звук – smile_hud18

Open thread!

Ukrainians!

All our defenders!

Today is a truly historic day – Ukraine has felt the support of four powerful European states at once. And in particular support for our movement to the European Union. Italy, Romania, France and Germany are with us. All four leaders – Mr. Draghi, Mr. Iohannis, Mr. Macron and Mr. Scholz – support Ukraine’s candidacy.

Of course, all relevant procedures must be followed, and all EU member states must join. But at our meeting today a big step was made – a step forward. It was important for me to hear from the leaders another fundamental thing – they agree that the end of the war and peace for Ukraine must be exactly as Ukraine sees them. As our people see them.

I am grateful to Italy for its principled political support, macro-financial and defense assistance. Historically we now have the best relations – and I am sure we can do a lot more for our nations.

I am grateful to Romania for the defense assistance and assistance in the transit of our goods, including grain. We agreed to increase export capacity through the territory of Romania.

France will provide additional Caesar artillery systems. This is very important for our defense. Also today, President Macron openly said that the European support for Ukraine should really demonstrate that we defend the same values, defend Europe together.

Germany has confirmed the provision of air defense systems for our country and further support.

By the way, when four leaders arrived in Kyiv today, it coincided with the beginning of the air raid siren. Russia has created a background for everyone to hear these sirens to create a tense atmosphere. But no one was scared, and it only inspired us to be as specific as possible and to negotiate for our interests – for all Ukrainians and for all in Europe.

Today I personally thanked Chancellor Scholz for inviting me to the G7 meeting. In general, my impression of the meeting is positive. All leaders understand why negotiations to end the war are not under way. Exclusively because of Russia’s position, which is only trying to intimidate everyone in Europe and continue the destruction of our state. They do not want to look for a way to peace. This is an aggressor who must decide for himself that the war must end.

We will continue to fight until we guarantee our state full security and territorial integrity.

We talked today about the preparation of a new sanctions package against Russia. We talked about overcoming the food crisis provoked by Russia. The resumption of exports of Ukrainian agricultural products is vital for dozens of countries. And there is only one reason why the food crisis has become possible at all: Russia is to blame, and no one else. All leaders already recognize this.

We talked about the reconstruction of Ukraine after the war – we have very specific views of partners on this.

I believe that it is not a coincidence that the situation with gas in Europe has worsened today – the price has jumped again. Russia has done this on purpose, restricting supplies to harm Europe, to strike at Europeans.

Gazprom is simply pulling on the gas chain in which they have been trying to shackle Europe for a long time. And this is another argument in favor of the fact that Europe must now switch to life without Russian gas. There should be no such dependence.

Tomorrow and the day after tomorrow there will also be a lot of news for Ukraine, and I believe that they will be positive. I really believe that. I would like to emphasize once again that all this is possible first of all thanks to our heroes, thanks to each and everyone who protects us from Russian troops.

Today, the Ukrainian army is fighting in the conditions of a significant quantitative advantage of the enemy – in technology, in artillery systems. Fighting in such conditions is a daily feat. We do everything to give our heroes modern and powerful weapons. And I am proud of all those who have been repelling the occupier and all the attacks for 113 days of the full-scale war already.

It is thanks to the bravery of Ukrainian men and women that Europe can create this new history of freedom and finally remove the “gray” zone between the EU and Russia in Eastern Europe. Ukraine has come closest to the European Union since independence.

Eternal glory to all who are fighting for Ukraine!

Eternal memory to all whose lives were taken by these occupiers!

Glory to Ukraine!

As you can see in President Zelenskyy’s remarks, shortly after it was reported that President Macron, Prime Minister Draghi, Chancellor Scholtz, and Prime Minister Iohannis had arrived in Kyiv, Russia launched a number of ballistic missiles from the direction of the Black Sea. This, of course, lit up the air defense radar all over Ukraine, which led to air raid alerts being issued for the entire country. Subtle Putin is not!

I want to focus on a couple of items that President Zelenskyy mentioned in his nightly address. The first is that France and Germany are going to support Ukraine’s candidacy. This is welcome news as many of us, based on the reporting, expected were going to either slow walk or outright object to Ukraine being given candidate status immediately. They are going to support Ukraine’s candidacy. In the case of Chancellor Scholtz it is because he is getting pressure from his coalition partners and the opposition:

Additional pressure on Scholz to move on 🇺🇦 membership candidacy comes from parliament, where Scholz risks a revolt next week — which he will seek to preempt.

More in today’s POLITICO Playbook, also with scoop by @HankeVela & @suzannelynch1 on 🇫🇷 plans:https://t.co/W9Fkay2UBx pic.twitter.com/uVWaoBdjsK

— Hans von der Burchard (@vonderburchard) June 15, 2022

I have a feeling that Scholtz is not going to have a long tenure as chancellor.

Regardless of why it is happening, this is good news:

The leaders of Germany, France, Italy and Romania on Thursday threw their weight behind accepting Ukraine and Moldova as EU membership candidates, laying to rest doubts over their stance amid Russia’s war against Ukraine.

“All four of us support the status of immediate candidate for membership,” French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters at a joint news conference in Kyiv, where the leaders had traveled to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He was speaking alongside German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and Romanian President Klaus Iohannis.

Scholz delivered a similar conclusion: “Germany is in favor of a positive decision in favor of Ukraine. This also applies to the Republic of Moldova,” the chancellor said. “Ukraine belongs to the European family,” he added.

Scholz’s statement was particularly notable since the chancellor had been more reluctant to endorse a trajectory toward membership for Ukraine or Moldova in previous comments.

I expect Hungary is going to continue to be a problem given who Orban is. How the EU leadership handles him will indicate how things are going to go.

The second thing I want to highlight is President Macron’s seeming change in rhetoric. Yesterday, Macron gave remarks at a press conference. The replies were then chopped up and many taken out of context. Here’s an accurate translation:

🧵 Macron was asked twice about his humiliation remarks at a presser with 🇷🇴 President Ioannis & hinted at Kyiv visit.

BFM clip below is actually Part 2 of Answer 1 (Part 1&more blunt answer 2 later in🪡)

🗣 Macron: “But we want to build peace. This means that at some point, 1/ https://t.co/zQwDszhDRy

— Elise (@Elise_ML) June 15, 2022

• “we all want fire to stop [i.e., ceasefire] and the discussions to resume. With this sentence, in constant contact with President Zelensky and as he has perfectly understood, I simply reiterated that we, Europeans, share a continent.” 2/
• “And geography is stubborn, and it so happens that at the end of it, Russia is still there. It is there today, it was there yesterday, it will be there tomorrow.” 3/
• “Russia is a power with [nuclear weapons] and so I never shared the opinion of those who say that “today we wage a war on the Russian people and tomorrow we want to annihilate them” as it is sometimes said. No.” 4/
• “Because at some point, when we will have helped as much as possible to resist and when, I hope, Ukraine will win and fire will stop, we will have to negotiate. Ukraine’s president & leaders will have to negotiate with Russia,” 5/ (Not that different from Biden’s op-ed)
• “and we Europeans will be at the table bringing security guarantees and elements that pertain to our continent. This is the reality of things and it is this principle that I simply recalled. … Any excessive talk will not allow this moment to come. Our future is at stake.” 6/

You can find part 1 translated at the tweet thread.

Despite President Macron seeming to get with the program, based on body language and facial expression, I’m not sure President Zelenskyy is particularly enamored of him:

I know it's may be just a caption, but note the difference in how leaders look at each other on these two photos.
📷 Zelenskyy official pic.twitter.com/X6DJ2qni3k

— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) June 16, 2022

This, however, remains the real issue:

Ukraine military assistance: commitment vs actual deliveries. The US has delivered half of what it promised, Germany even less. Poland matches words with its deeds pic.twitter.com/HtDJ6X5667

— Daniel Szeligowski (@dszeligowski) June 16, 2022

Politico has the practical details:

The Biden administration is touting another $1 billion package of military aid to Ukraine, including thousands of rounds of critically needed ammunition for the grinding fight in the Donbas. But the U.S. announcement Wednesday was met with an outcry from Ukrainians and reporters on the ground, who all had the same complaint: It’s not enough.

Ukraine is only able to fire 5,000 to 6,000 artillery rounds per day, Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister HANNA MALIAR told our own CHRISTOPHER MILLER in an interview — which means the 36,000 rounds the U.S. is sending in its latest tranche of assistance will last Kyiv roughly a week. Russia, meanwhile, fires nearly twice as many in a single day.

“There is not a single region in Ukraine that is safe today. There is not a single area that has not been hit by rocket fire,” Maliar said.

Russian forces have slowly but steadily started to make gains in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, pounding towns and cities there with nonstop shelling. In recent weeks, Moscow has tightened its grip on Sievierodonetsk, one of Ukraine’s last remaining strongholds in the area, and the two sides are locked in a brutal street-by-street battle for the city.

Ukraine is outgunned and outnumbered 10 to one on the battlefield, Maliar said. Russia has 330,000 personnel committed to the war in Ukraine — 150,000 of whom are currently on Ukrainian territory — and Ukrainian intelligence officials estimate that Moscow can sustain the intensity of its campaign in the Donbas for at least a year.

“If Ukraine is not given weapons, heavy weapons, air defense and missile defense today, then we won’t be able to survive this war,” Maliar said. “This shows the imbalance of power. It is clear how many weapons Ukraine needs in order to enter parity in order to win this war.”

The problem is that most of Ukraine’s artillery from before the invasion is Russian-built and fires 152 mm rounds that are no longer available to Kyiv. NATO countries are filling the gap by supplying Western artillery, including U.S. M777 Howitzers and 155 mm munitions. But this weapons flow is limited because it comes from Western inventories.

“We are supporting the Ukrainian military as rapidly as humanly possible,” Gen. MARK MILLEY, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Wednesday during a press conference in Brussels.

Here’s GEN Milley’s assessment of Ukraine’s progress as reported by DefenseOne:

“The Ukrainians are fighting them street by street house by house,” Milley said. “And it’s not a done deal. There are no inevitabilities in war. War takes many, many turns. So I wouldn’t say it’s an inevitability. But I would say that the numbers clearly favor the Russians.”

But, Milley said, Ukraine has been able to destroy between 20 to 30 percent of Russia’s armored force.

“That’s significant,” Milley said. “That’s huge.”

There was no operational update today from the Ukrainian MOD, nor was their an updated map from the British MOD. There is an assessment today from the British though:

And here’s former NAVDEVGRU squadron commander Chuck Pfarrer’s updated analysis and map of the battle for Sieverodonetsk:

SIEVERODONETSK / 2000 UTC 16 JUN / FEBA remains steady on existing axes. Heavy shelling continues targeting urban ares of Sieverodonetsk, Lysychansk and Linsa Dacha. Though urban attacks have been reinforced, RU forces have failed to advance beyond Bohdan Lishina Street. pic.twitter.com/y3kXhMyxa1

— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) June 16, 2022

Secretary of Defense Austin held a press conference at today’s NATO Defense Ministerial Conference.

SECRETARY OF DEFENSE LLOYD J. AUSTIN III: Well, good afternoon, everyone. It’s always good to be back at NATO. I’d like to thank Secretary General Stoltenberg for hosting this defense ministerial and for his tremendous leadership during this critical time.

You know, back in 1949, President Truman said that NATO’s task would be to build, quote, “the structure of peace”, and he said what we must work patiently — he said that we must work patiently and careful, advancing with practical, realistic steps in the light of circumstances and events as they occur.

And that’s just what this Alliance has done since Russia’s indefensible invasion of Ukraine, and we have had to face events that we all hoped would never come to pass. And this Alliance has met the challenge with determination, with resolve, and above all, with unity. Together, we have responded swiftly and decisively to Russia’s baseless and lawless and reckless invasion of Ukraine. NATO has shown the world that it remains the essential forum for consultation, decision, and action on transatlantic security.

We are all proud to stand with the brave people of Ukraine as they defend themselves and their democracy and their sovereignty. And during this enormous crisis in European security, we’re proud to stand together to strengthen the rules-based international order that protects us all.

Our work together is indispensable, and these ministerials are invaluable. It’s an opportunity to consult with one another and to share ideas and to ensure that the Alliance is prepared to face the challenges of today and tomorrow.

Together, we have risen to the challenge of Putin’s war of choice, and Russia’s assault on transatlantic security. Our Allies have activated NATO’s defense plans. They’ve deployed elements of the NATO Response Force and they’ve placed tens of thousands of troops in the eastern areas of the Alliance, along with significant air and naval assets under the direct command of NATO and supported by Allies’ national deployments.

And NATO is also making plans to strengthen its deterrence and defense posture for the longer-term, especially along the eastern flank. Over two highly-productive days, this ministerial has laid the groundwork for important discussions and decisions at the NATO Summit in Madrid later this month.

Now, NATO is also close to welcoming two new members to the Alliance, and Finland and Sweden have made the historic decisions to apply for membership, and that reflects the appeal of NATO’s core values. The values that unite us as an Alliance remain strong and timeless, and so does our shared vision of a stronger rules-based international order and a more peaceful world.

I am deeply proud of the progress that we’ve made over the past several months, and now the good work must continue. And during our time together, I’ve encouraged my fellow ministers to do even more, and we all share the responsibility to procure, prepare, and provide ready capabilities and forces to prepare this Alliance for the challenges to come.

NATO’s preeminent task has not changed, to defend each and every Ally’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence. And that’s why America’s commitment to NATO and to Article 5 remains iron-clad.

Thank you for being here today. And I’m happy to take a couple of questions.

STAFF: (inaudible) from Frankfurter-Allgemeine.

Q: Thanks a lot. (inaudible)from Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. Mr. Secretary, the reinforcements that NATO Allies are considering regarding the Eastern flank seems to be along the concept of scalable brigades. So this means that NATO member states will rely heavily on their ability to quickly move forces to theater when it’s necessary. We all know about shortcomings in logistics and weapons supplies over the previous years.

And I’m just wondering how confident are you that NATO member states will be up to the task, and will in fact be able to fulfill this requirement if need be? Thank you.

SEC. AUSTIN: Well, thanks. I am confident. I have confidence in the process and the ability of our Allies to build the capabilities that we agreed to — that we all need. You know, when I looked around the room in our meetings there, and I saw the commitment and the energy in that room and you know, I was — it was heartening. It was encouraging.

As you heard the Secretary General mentioned earlier, there are things that we can do and will do to make sure that it’s a lot easier to rapidly-deploy forces forward. Some of those things include pre-positioning of equipment, putting forces that are at home station on higher levels of alert, streamlining command-and-control so that it’s easier to fall in on a formation.

So, recognizing the challenges of the past, I think, you know, all of our allies have learned from any shortcomings that we may have experienced in the past. And they’ll build to ensure that they have the right capabilities to provide flexible and responsible and combat-credible forces when the time comes.

STAFF: Oren Liebermann, CNN?

Q: Mr. Secretary, you talked about the support of NATO behind the cause of Ukraine. It’s relatively easy, by and large, to unite NATO governments, but how do you keep the NATO public engaged when many, including in the U.S., are already more concerned about the high costs of fuel and inflation than they are about what’s happening in the Donbas region?

How fragile is public support for this, as it drags on?

SEC. AUSTIN: Well, certainly, making sure that the public — that the people of each of our countries in the Alliance remain engaged. I’m confident that our leaders will do the right thing to address their constituents.

You know, as we come together and talk about complex issues, you know, we can be assured from time to time that there will be differences of opinion, but that’s why we have these meetings, to make sure that we — you know, we really wring things out and entertain any questions or issues that various countries may have so that they can go back and work with their constituents and make sure that, you know, people really understand where the Alliance is going and what it needs.

And I have confidence that in every case, we’ll be able to reach consensus and move forward. We’ve done that in the past; I certainly saw evidence of that here in this meeting and in other meetings. But that’s why we have these meetings. That’s why we come together.

But in terms of making sure that the constituents of the various countries, you know, remain supportive of our efforts, I have confidence that the leadership of the various countries will be able to manage that and maintain support, so…

STAFF: Lili Bayer, Politico E.U.?

Q: Thank you very much. I have two brief questions. The first is, could you update us more specifically on your thinking on what kind of extra support the U.S. might offer Eastern NATO allies? And the second question is, what assistance is the U.S. providing Ukrainians trying to repair Javelins? Thank you.

SEC. AUSTIN: Well, I don’t have any announcements to make today. I would say that, you know, as you look back at what’s happened since the 24th of February, members of the Alliance have really stepped up. We rapidly deployed capability to the eastern flank in order to reassure our Allies that, you know, we’re ready to defend every inch of NATO’s territory. So if you look at the things, the increase in force posture, since that time, you know, it’s been impressive. And so that’s kind of reassuring when we look at the future and what we need to do in the future to make sure that we have that combat-credible capability. I feel very good about us being able to work together to ensure that we have what we need.

You heard the Secretary General say earlier that what we’re really focused on is not just numbers of boots on the ground; we’re really focused on total capability, so capability in air, land, sea and cyber and space. And you know, as we look at putting that together- and you heard me say a couple minutes ago that there are things that we’re also looking at in terms of pre-positioning of equipment, you know, streamlining command-and-control, making sure that — you know, that we have our balance and footprint about right. There are number of things that we’re going to be working on going forward, but that’s — that is still a work in progress, and you know, I expect that at the Madrid Summit we’ll see senior leaders make announcements based upon the recommendations from the ministers and the things that we’ve worked out here.

STAFF: We have time for just one more. Jim Garamone from the Defense Media Activity.

Q: Mr. Secretary, the Secretary General mentioned that China was a — and your — of discussion during the meetings. You just came from the Shangri-La and from the Asia-Pacific. How did you see that conversation going?

SEC. AUSTIN: Conversation —

Q: In the meetings about China and the strategic concept.

SEC. AUSTIN: Well, I — you know, clearly, the members of the Alliance are supportive of what’s in the strategic concept, and they recognize the importance of making sure that we pay attention to what’s going on in the Indo-Pacific, and we all have a common interest in making sure that the Indo-Pacific remains free and open and accessible.

So we’ve seen a number of countries that are members of this Alliance operate in the Indo-Pacific, some in conjunction with us and other countries like Australia and Japan. And so there are clearly a number of countries who have direct interest in the Indo-Pacific. But the Alliance as a whole, as you’ve heard the Secretary General say, has — is interested and is — and will stay — will pay attention to what’s going on in the region.

But again, Jim, if you just kind of look at the importance of all those countries out there, it’s a — my view, it’s the right thing to do and it’s the same view that our Allies have, as well, so —

STAFF: Thank you, everyone.

SEC. AUSTIN: Thanks, everybody, and I’ll see you on the next ministerial or at the summit.

I think that’s more than enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

From Patron’s Instagram page (they don’t embed for some reason)

Here’s the accompanying caption:

patron_dsns It’s me from the grass looking out who is so pretty looking at me. And this is you! I went to bite the telephone wires because @emmanuelmacron came to Ukraine, and he has some problems with the uncontrollable desire to call one disrespectful person

And the picture:

And here’s some new video of Patron from his TikTok account:

@patron__dsns

✨🐶 @HSHQ #патрон #песпатрон #патрондснс

♬ As It Was – Harry Styles

Open thread!

Ukrainians!

All our defenders!

Today, our air defense units managed to “cut the wings” of Russian missiles. Some of the missiles fired by the occupiers at our cities were shot down. And these are saved lives. This is a saved infrastructure.

But we managed to shoot down only part of them. Unfortunately, there are victims, there is destruction. Today, the Lviv and Ternopil regions were hit. And we keep telling our partners that Ukraine needs modern anti-missile weapons. Our country does not have it at a sufficient level yet, but it is our country in Europe that needs such weapons most right now. Delay with its provision cannot be justified. I will constantly emphasize this when talking to our partners.

We made the first requests for anti-missile systems long before the full-scale invasion. And this week there will be many different important talks – and not only with European politicians who are able to provide Ukraine with modern anti-missile systems. Even though Russia has fewer and fewer modern missiles with each passing day, Ukraine’s need for such systems remains. Because Russia still has enough Soviet types of missiles, which are even more dangerous. They are many times less precise, and therefore threaten civilian objects and ordinary residential buildings much more.

I spoke today with Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau. Of course, the number one topic was defense support. Canada is among the leaders in it. I expressed gratitude for the fact that Canada became the first country to transfer special assistance to the Ukrainian account at the IMF – about $ 800 million.

I also had a conversation with the President of Ecuador. I congratulated him on the election of Ecuador as a member of the UN Security Council. I informed him about the current situation on the battlefield and called for increasing pressure on Russia to end this war. Both this conversation with the President of Ecuador and yesterday’s conversation with the President of Guatemala are just the beginning of our new policy of restoring relations with Latin America.

Today I asked the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to be very attentive to reports in the media and on social networks that some of our fighters do not have enough personal protective equipment. The reports I receive are significantly different from what is discussed by society. And I expect inspections of logistics in the army – inspections of what is supplied and how personal protective equipment is distributed. Today, everyone in the areas of hostilities must have everything they need to protect themselves. The state provides such supplies.

Over the past day no drastic changes have taken place in the battle in Donbas. The fiercest fighting is in Severodonetsk and in all cities and communities nearby – as before. The losses, unfortunately, are painful. But we have to hold on. This is our state. It is vital to hold on there, in Donbas. The more losses the enemy suffers there, the less power they will have to continue the aggression. Therefore, the Donbas direction is key to determining who will dominate in the coming weeks.

We also have painful losses in the Kharkiv region, where the Russian army is trying to strengthen its position. The battles for this direction continue, and we still have to fight hard for complete security for Kharkiv and the region.

We continue to put pressure on the occupiers in the south. The key goal is the liberation of Kherson, and we will move towards this step by step.

I signed another decree on awarding those who excelled in battles. 63 servicemen were awarded for bravery and efficiency in defending the state.

The total number of awarded is already 18,453. And such a scale, such a number of feats fully demonstrate the level of confrontation and the brutality of hostilities.

I thank everyone who stood up for our state!

Eternal memory to everyone whose life was taken by the occupiers!

Glory to Ukraine!

As you can see, President Zelenskyy is continuing the strategic communication campaign regarding the need for specific types of weaponry for the Ukrainian military.

You may also notice that he’s ordered a logistics review of why he’s seeing appeals and/or reports of appeals on social media for body armor, helmets, and other equipment for individual soldiers because the Ukrainian military is, allegedly, unable to provide these items. I expect this is one of the things he’s responding to:

Great start so far everyone, with your help we've raised more than €57,000 for helmets and body armor to help protect the heroes defending Ukraine! Still a long way to go until we reach our goal so please continue sharing and if you haven't yet, consider donating as well. 🛡️✌️🇺🇦 https://t.co/tP4Puoai9t

— Ukraine Aid Operations 🇺🇦 (@UkraineAidOps) June 13, 2022

Here’s the British MOD’s assessment for today:

I want to go back to President Zelenskyy’s appeals for weaponry from the US, our EU and NATO allies, and our non-EU and non-NATO allies.

Mistermix emailed me earlier today with a question about this based on the Mykhail Podylyak’s list of what Ukraine needs that I posted last night.

My question:  In a tweet from yesterday’s update, Ukraine wants

• 1000 howitzers caliber 155 mm;
• 300 MLRS; 500 tanks;
• 2000 armored vehicles;
• 1000 drones.

But if you read this thread by Mark Hertling, the US Army has 240 howitzers and 300 rocket systems in the entire active force.

Is the Ukraine asking for 1000 in hopes of getting another 100, do they really need that number of howitzers, etc., or is something else going on here?

Thanks!

So let’s start with LTG (ret) Hertling’s thread:

As I said in past threads, the "new phase" of the fight (which started in early April), brought change.

-RU focus is on massing artillery, attempts at breakthrough.
-UA focus is logistics, active defense & maintaining will.

I've used this slide to describe the major shifts. 2/ pic.twitter.com/Da7yBmo8Qa

— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) June 13, 2022

• @nytimesIn the last few days, the, @washingtonpost,@WSJ & others have reported Ukraine’s demand for more combat equipment. UA needs support, lots of it. It’s important to understand the scope of their “asks,” the art of the possible & the associated logistics requirements. 3/
• I’ll provide some of context for all that, from a soldier’s perspective & battlefield experience as a Division Commander. Some of what I say will be met with “they know more than you on what they need.” So please understand I’m just giving my perspective. 4/
• Many reports today said the west is “lagging” & “indecisive” in providing equipment. Those reports also say Ukraine needs nations to provide 1000 howitzers, 300 MLRS, 500 tanks, 2000 armored vehicles. I’d offer some context for those requests. 5/
• Let’s talk artillery. There are 10 active US Army Divisions. Depending on the “type” division (Armored, Infantry, Airborne, Air Assault, Light), each one is equipped differently. Each has a Division Artillery Brigade -called a “DIVARTY”- which normally has 3 Battalions. 6/
• During combat, each artillery battalion in DIVARTY isattached to the 3 combat brigades of the Division. Each of those arty battalions has between 16-24 howitzers (either self-propelled M109A7 or towed M777) & usually 9 different “types” of rocket artillery (MLRS or HIMARS). 7/
• To make it easy for math purposes, let’s round up and say each Division has 24 howitzers & 9 rocket systems. That’s a TOTAL of 240 howitzers & 90 rocket systems in all ten of the active US Army Divisions . That’s an indicator of the scope of the UA “asks.” 8/
• The US provided 108 M777 to UA a few weeks ago, the equivalent of almost 5 artillery battalions. Those came with 200,000 rounds of ammunition. The US also sent 4 HIMARS as a proof of principle. There will likely be more of those in the next tranche. 9/
• NATO countries are also sending cannons & ammunition, some w/ different chassis, fire control systems, training requirements. They wont match RU guns 1:1, as western militaries have other methods to counter the RU artillery threat. (That is hard to explain in a thread). 10/
• Part of the “ask” that is required but usually not discussed in the requirement for support for all this equipment. Parts, mechanics, maintenance, etc. That comes from elsewhere. Along with a “DIVARTY,” each US Division also has a Division Support Command, or “DISCOM.” 11/
• The DISCOM is a very large organization w/ mechanics, part suppliers & parts, truck drivers, fuelers, equipment handlers & all other things that are part of supply chain operations. That DISCOM “supports the supporters” that exists internally to each battalion/brigade. 12/
• What these soldiers do is ensure each piece of high-tech equipment continues to work, is supplied with ammo/fuel/spare parts/electronics. When delivering cannons…there’s requirements to deliver all the “stuff.” There’s more supporters than trigger pullers in a US Division.13/
• It’s relatively easy to train soldiers to operate cannons. But there’s also the need for EXTENSIVE training of mechanics, suppliers, & other supporters. And…you must ensure the supply chain (including the route for all this to take place) operates smoothly. 14/
• It’s an estimated 400 miles from Ukraine’s western border to Kyiv…another 200+ from Kyiv to the front lines. The military calls that a “line of communications” or LOC. Keeping LOCs secure & open in combat is tough work, but it’s required. 15/
• Add to this, the different kind of equipment Ukraine is requesting is coming from a variety of NATO and non-NATO nations. Not all of it is the same. That exacerbates parts & maintenance requirements. This compounds supply chain & LOC challenges. 16/
• In this thread, we’ve talked just artillery. Now multiply cannon issues to fielding new & technologically advanced tanks, infantry vehicles, aviation, etc. In effect, UA is wanting to field a new army, w/ western equipment, w/unfamiliar processes, while fighting a war. 17/
• As a division commander in combat, I fielded several weapons systems -some complicated, some not- during a 15-month deployment. The easy fieldings took weeks…hard ones took longer. Units are pulled off line & trained. Mechanics learn their stuff. Supplies are restocked. 18/
• And I had the advantage of a great DISCOM, practiced processes, secured supply lines, soldiers that knew what they were getting, the ability to pull folks offline and replace them with others while equipment was fielded. UA has none of that. 19/
• Make no mistake, UKR requires support from the US & NATO. The courage & tenacity UA has shown is exemplary & they are fighting for all of us. UA will win, but it will be a tough fight. And…supporters ought understand the dynamics of what they’re facing. 20/
• Sorry if this thread has pissed anyone off, but these are the challenges associated with transforming and modernizing an army…and it requires more than just people saying “give them everything they need.” 21/21

To answer mistermix’s question, LTG Hertling is not wrong. But there are two things that are getting missed here. The first is that LTG Hertling indicated that the numbers he was providing for the US are for the active Army. You can find that in tweet #10. He is not including the Reserves and the National Guard. So there is more than this in the US Army’s inventory in terms of overall force structure. How much more? I don’t know but it isn’t just a few dozen. The US Army, of all the Services, has the largest Reserves and National Guard to Active component ratio. The idea is to keep the standing Army that the Founders were so afraid of as small as possible unless we’re actually at war. Which is why we’ve seen a re-balancing of the Active component’s size in terms of reductions in relation to the Reserve and Guard over the past decade as operations in Iraq and Afghanistan wound down or got smaller or both. It also doesn’t account for US Marine Corps artillery assets. Not a gigantic amount, but not nothing either.

The second issue is that the US has a lot of its long and medium range fires capacity tied up not in artillery, but in aviation. Fixed and rotary wing attack fighters. Short, medium, and long range fighter bombers. Land, sea, and amphibious based. So while Russia and China have the vast, vast majority of their fires capacity in land based artillery, we have it in aviation.

There is an effort underway to rebalance this and to bring much longer range ground based fires on line under the Army’s multi-domain combat concept of operations. Under this the Army would have artillery capable of hitting up to 2,000 km away from the guns. Something that would normally be done by aviation assets.

There is a very good article explaining this at Business Insider.

Third, and finally, as to what Ukraine is asking for, I think the answer lies in the second issue. Ukraine had limited ground/land based fires capability to begin with. And it was old, Soviet legacy stuff. They also have a very limited, though quite capable, Air Force. Within the air component, even limited in number of platforms overall, the vast majority are the MiG 23 attack fighters, not the SU-25 close attack fighters, as well as Mi24 rotary attack craft more popularly known as the Hind. As a result, if we’re not going to facilitate them getting old MiGs  and SUs from the former Soviet states now in NATO, and we’re not going to get them US and other western platforms – F-18s, F-16s, F-15s, A-10s, Apache and Kiowa rotary wing attack choppers, British Typhoons, etc – then they need ground based fires platforms because they don’t have the aviation equivalents.

Mistermix then had a follow on question:

I don’t know if you want to comment on this, but one thing I saw today somewhere on Twitter was that the artillery supplied by the US/NATO that is now being used by the Ukranians is higher quality than the Russian stuff they were using.  So, shell-for-shell, tube-for-tube or however you guys assess this, the Ukranians will have more impact with what they got from US/NATO countries.  I don’t know how that figures into the calculation.

This is correct. The legacy Soviet stuff is old. It was designed for 30 years ago at the latest. The stuff we and our allies have been sending that is new and NATO standard – and our non NATO allies try to use NATO standard for interoperability – is of much more modern design. This is part of why our Defense budget is so expensive. We constantly have R&D and manufacturing for either running upgrade changes to our existing equipment or material and have constant development of new, next gen equipment and material to replace it. All to ensure that we always have strategic over match. Unfortunately, we also know that strategic over match doesn’t get you very far in the wars we’ve spent the past 20 years fighting. Except for what the SOF bubbas are doing.

CNN is reporting that the US is expecting new weapons requests from Ukraine at tomorrow’s meeting in Brussels.

The US expects more announcements of weapons and equipment packages to be sent to Ukraine to help in its fight against Russia at a meeting of nearly 50 countries in Brussels on Wednesday, according to a senior US defense official.

Ukrainian officials have warned that Russia is gaining ground in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, specifically in the city of Severodonetsk, which has seen some of the heaviest fighting recently. Without an influx of more weapons, some Ukrainian officials have said it will be increasingly difficult to halt Russia’s incremental progress or reclaim occupied ground in the region.

“We hear what they’re saying, we absolutely hear what they’re saying,” said the senior defense official, who spoke of the “urgency” of the Ukraine Contact Group meeting Thursday in Brussels.

The official would not detail what countries would be announcing new security packages or what those shipments would include but noted that the US works “very closely” with allies to figure out what Ukraine’s armed forces need and then find those systems to send over.

The official would also not say whether the US would make a new announcement but said the Biden administration is already working on the next weapons package.

“It’s a constant drumbeat because it’s a constant battle” with “constantly evolving urgent requirements,” the official told a group of reporters traveling with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

The US has taken on “some risk” to its own military readiness in sending weapons and equipment to Ukraine, Army Secretary Christine Wormuth said earlier this month, but it was “not an unacceptable level of risk at all.”

The senior defense official said the US and it allies have a significant amount of equipment still available to send to Ukraine.

“We have far from exhausted the resource and the multi-country security assistance for this battle on Ukrainian territory,” the official said.

Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky vowed in an evening speech on Monday that Ukraine would liberate all of the territories occupied by Russia, even the Crimean peninsula, which Russia annexed shortly after its takeover in 2014. But that could only happen, he said, if more weapons are sent to Ukraine.

“It only takes enough weapons to make it happen. The partners have it. In sufficient quantities. And we work every day for the political will to give us these weapons to appear,” Zelensky said.

Ukrainian officials have said 100 to 200 soldiers a day are dying in the fighting, a number that raises some doubts about the ability of the Ukrainian armed forces to sustain such losses. The US official said they don’t doubt the casualty figures.

“The numbers are not out of line with what you would expect for this kind of artillery battle,” the official said. “It’s not surprising that the numbers the Ukrainians are reporting are that serious.”

But the official said the US has not seen a flagging of Ukrainian morale to remain in the fight, even as the conflict becomes a grinding, brutal battle of artillery that may favor the firepower and manpower of Russia’s military. The official sounded a more optimistic note about the state of the war, even as Russia appears to be gaining momentum in the Donbas region.

More at the link!

I think that’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron:

Пес-сапер Патрон відтепер на варті й в Ужгороді.

🔹Створила його поруч із двома іншими патріотичними стріт-артами на стіні стадіону "Авангард" ужгородська художниця Катерина Туз. pic.twitter.com/FjKU1HbUoM

— МВС України (@MVS_UA) June 14, 2022

The tweet says:

Dog sapper Patron is now on guard in Uzhgorod. It was created next to two other patriotic street art artists on the wall of Avangard Stadium by Uzhhorod artist Kateryna Tuz.

And new Patron video on his official TikTok page!!!!

@patron__dsns

Зможете повторити мій бугі-вугі? Найкращі дуети запощу в своєму Іn$tаграм 😏 #песпатрон #патрон #славаукраїні

♬ suono originale – MacAndFrency

Open thread!

Strong people of an unbreakable country!

Today is the 110th day of our defense. And when you say that – the 110th day – you realize what a great path we have covered. The enemy was driven out of the Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy regions. A large part of the Kharkiv region was liberated. In total, more than a thousand settlements have been liberated.

The invasion of the occupiers in the south of Ukraine was stopped. Yes, they still want to destroy Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, and the cities of the Dnipropetrovsk region. They still have enough strength to shoot from the artillery at Zelenodolsk and Hulyaipole. Odesa remains a target for the Russian fleet…

But dozens of the attacking attempts of the Russian army have already been thwarted right there in the south. And thanks to the counteroffensive, some communities in the Kherson region have already been liberated.

In the battles in Donbas – and they will surely go down in military history as one of the most brutal battles in Europe and for Europe – the Ukrainian army and our intelligence tactically still beat the Russian military. And this is despite the significant advantage of the Russians in the amount of equipment, and especially – artillery systems.

The price of this battle for us is very high. It’s just scary. And we draw the attention of our partners on a daily basis to the fact that only a sufficient number of modern artillery for Ukraine will ensure our advantage and finally the end of Russian torture of the Ukrainian Donbas.

Today it became known about the death of another child caused by the Russian shelling – right there, right in Donbas, in the Luhansk region. The boy was born in 2016. He lived in Lysychansk, in an ordinary house on Moskovska Street. This is it: a six-year-old boy on Moskovska Street is also, as it turned out, a dangerous enemy for the Russian Federation…

We are dealing with absolute evil. And we have no choice but to move on. Free our entire territory. Drive the occupiers out of all our regions. And although now the width of our front is already more than 2.5 thousand kilometers, it is felt that the strategic initiative is still ours.

We will come to all our cities, to all our villages, which do not yet have our flag on the administrative buildings. Although there are a lot of Ukrainian flags there, in people’s houses, I’m sure of it. And we have already seen them when people protested against the occupiers. And we will see them again – everywhere, when we return.

We will come to Kherson. And ordinary Kherson residents will meet our army on the streets of the city. The failure of the occupiers, who tried to celebrate the so-called Russia Day, only proves that Kherson is a Ukrainian city. And Kherson residents will celebrate only Ukrainian holidays.

We will come to Melitopol. And we will return to all Melitopol residents the opportunity to live without fear. And, by the way, all the collaborators who are now threatening to take away land from farmers in Melitopol and other districts of Zaporizhzhia will most likely end up in this land themselves.

We will come to Mariupol. And we will liberate the city for the third time. It was liberated from the Nazis in 1943 by a brilliant operation. In 2014, on this day, June 13, thanks to the courage of our “Azov” and other units, Mariupol was liberated for the second time. Liberated from the militants, who at that time were not yet fully aware of what the Russian state was sending them to. And now they see it all. They see burned Mariupol. They see why the Russians came there. But we will not allow them to make this city dead. We will return it. Definitely.

It only takes enough weapons to make it happen. The partners have it. In sufficient quantities. And we work every day for the political will to give us these weapons to appear.

We will come to Enerhodar. And I want to repeat to everyone in the city who took to the streets against the Russian military, who refuses to cooperate with the occupiers and who is waiting for us today. I want to repeat that we have not forgotten about our Enerhodar for a day.

We must understand that the occupiers are keeping the occupied territory not just in an information blockade. I would call it a civilizational blockade.

They are trying to make people not just know nothing about Ukraine and how we are trying to liberate our territory. They are trying to make them stop even thinking about returning to normal life, forcing them to reconcile. In some areas, the occupiers are deliberately preventing the restoration of electricity supply. In many communities, they simply blocked communication. Our television is being turned off. They closed the exit from the occupation and simply do not even allow humanitarian corridors so that we can bring people at least basic goods and medicines.

And I ask everyone who has such an opportunity to communicate with people in the occupied south, in Donbas, in the Kharkiv region. Tell them about Ukraine. Tell them the truth. Say that there will be liberation. Say it to Kyrylivka, Henichesk, Berdyansk, Manhush. Say it to Horlivka, Donetsk, Luhansk. Say it to everyone in the Kharkiv region who is still forced to see the Russian flag on our Ukrainian land. Tell them that the Ukrainian army will definitely come.

Of course, we will liberate our Crimea as well. The flag of Ukraine will fly again over Yalta and Sudak, over Dzhankoi and Yevpatoriya. And let every Russian official who has seized precious land in Crimea remember: this is not the land where they will have peace.

There is no one today who will say exactly how long our path to victory will take. But the vast majority of people today are already aware – this is our path. This is how this war will end.

We will rebuild everything that was destroyed by the occupiers. From Volnovakha to Chortkiv. Because this is Ukraine. And it is our destiny to return and strengthen it.

I am proud of all our defenders! Eternal glory to you!

Eternal memory to everyone whose life was taken by the occupiers!

Glory to Ukraine!

Given what the Ukrainians are facing along that 2.5 thousand kilometer line of contact and engagement, given the foot dragging of EU and NATO member states like German in ensuring Ukraine is properly supplied in a timely manner, and given that there are three EU states – France, Germany, and Hungary – that are expected to vote tomorrow against the EU Commission’s recommendation that Ukraine be given EU candidate status, President Zelenskyy’s remarks this evening were both defiant and grimly positive.

Ukraine’s MOD has posted an operational update!!!! (emphasis mine)

The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 06.00 on June 13, 2022

The one hundred tenth (110) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.

In the Volyn, Polissya and Siversky directions there are without significant changes. In the Siversky direction, russian occupiers fired artillery and mortars at the positions of the Defense Forces in the area of Hrinivka, Chernihiv oblast.

In the Kharkiv direction, russian enemy units continue to focus their main efforts on conducting positional defense and preventing the further advance of our troops to the State Border of Ukraine. russian enemy carried out assault operations in the direction of Ternov – Izbytske, had partial success, established itself on its northern outskirts. He remotely mined possible routes of deployment of our units in the area of the settlement of Petrivka, 20 km east of Stary Saltiv. Conducted air reconnaissance of UAVs in the Shestakovo area.

In the Slovyansk direction, enemy units focused their efforts on storming the settlements of Dolyna and Bohorodychne, but were unsuccessful. The enemy, as part of the logistics of troops, replaced more than 100 units of damaged armored vehicles.

In the Donetsk direction, the occupying forces are focusing on offensive operations to encircle our troops in the areas of Siverodonetsk and Lysychansk, and to block logistics routes from Bakhmut. Continues measures to replenish losses. It moved more than 80 weapons and military equipment, including heavy armored vehicles and artillery systems, to the settlements of Kreminna and Starobilsk.

In the Lyman direction, the enemy did not conduct active hostilities, continued shelling the positions of our troops in the areas of the settlements of Mayaky, 10 km north of Slovyansk, and Serebryanka, 5 km northeast of Siversk.

In the Siverodonetsk direction, the enemy, with the support of artillery, carried out assault operations in the city of Siverodonetsk, had partial success, pushed our units away from the city center, and hostilities continue. It fired artillery at the positions of the Defense Forces in the areas of the settlements of Lysychansk, Siverodonetsk, and Toshkivka.

In the Bakhmut direction, our soldiers successfully repulsed the assault operations in the directions of Viktorivka – Vrubivka and Komyshuvakha – Vrubivka. The enemy resumed offensive operations near the village of Zolote. It is fixed on the border of the Roty – Myronivka. To improve the tactical position and capture the dominant heights unsuccessfully conducted assault operations in the directions Dolomitne – Kodema, Dolomitne – Novoluhansk. Conducted air reconnaissance of UAVs in the Pokrovsk area.

In the Kurakhiv direction, russian enemy launched an air strike on the positions of our troops in the Krasnohorivka area, 15 km east of Kurakhove.

In the Avdiivka, Novopavlivska and Zaporizhzhia directions, the enemy fired along the line of contact in order to prevent the transfer of reserves to other directions.

In the South Buh direction, the enemy is conducting a positional defense. The main efforts are directed at the maintenance of previously occupied territories. He carried out engineering equipment of positions in the areas of Shilova Balka and Prydniprovske settlements. In order to clarify the position of our troops, he conducted air reconnaissance of UAVs in the area of Davydiv Brid.

russian aggressor is blocking civilian shipping in the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Six Caliber naval-based cruise missile carriers are ready to use missile weapons in the Black Sea.

We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Together to victory!

Glory to Ukraine!

Luhansk Oblast Governor Serhiy Hayday has local updates regarding the battle of Sievierodonetsk:

Two bridges on the approach to #Severodonetsk have been destroyed by russian forces. The third bridge was under constant fire today.
It is old and in a critical state, trucks can’t use it due to the high risk of collapse. If this route is destroyed, Severodonetsk will be cut off pic.twitter.com/FilR13VVO0

— Serhiy Hayday (@serhey_hayday) June 12, 2022

The Azot plant in #Severodonetsk is constantly shelled by the Russians. About 500 civilians, including 40 children, are sheltering there. We're trying to arrange an evacuation #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/2KOIuJVLZY

— Serhiy Hayday (@serhey_hayday) June 13, 2022

If the Russian bombardment of the Azot facility sounds familiar, it should. This is the exact same thing they did with the Azovstal facility in Mariupol.

Here’s former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent analysis and updated map of the battle of Sievierodonetsk:

SIEVERDONTESK / 2245 UTC 13 JUN / Urban fight static. RU committed to urban fight. UKR Gen’l Staff states that lines of supply are being maintained, but confirms that road bridges into the Sieverodonetsk have been blown– possibly in preparation for a tactical withdrawal. pic.twitter.com/SnDup14v83

— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) June 13, 2022

Here’s today’s updated assessment from Britain’s MOD.

There was no updated British mapping today.

There was no DOD backgrounder today, but Secretary of Defense Austin did a press conference at the Shangri La Dialogue earlier today and he did touch on Ukraine. Here are the relevant parts:

As you know, we’ll be flying tomorrow to Brussels for an important NATO defense ministerial to help pave the way for the Madrid Leaders Summit.

But my first order of business will be convening the Ukraine Defense Contact Group for the third time. That’s going to be an important opportunity to gather our growing group of partners from around the world to ensure that we’re providing Ukraine what Ukraine needs right now and to the — to — in order to defend against Russia’s unjustified and unprovoked assault, and to look ahead to ensure that we’re helping Ukraine to build and sustain robust defenses so that Ukraine will be able to defend itself in the coming months and years. We’ll hear directly from Ukrainian leaders led by my good friend and counterpart, Oleksii Reznikov, and we’ll work to intensify our shared efforts to meet Ukraine’s priority requirements to defend itself if Russia renews its dangerous assault in the Donbas.

So thanks again for coming along with us for this important trip. And with that, I’ll take your questions.

STAFF: Anton from The Economist?

Q: Mr. Secretary, thank you very much.

I wanted to pick up a point that you made in Singapore, which is that the Indo-Pacific is at the heart of your grand strategy. Now you’re going to NATO. How does the U.S. balance the demands of the two regions? In other words, how do you walk and chew gum? How do you sustain that effort over time?

SEC. AUSTIN: Well, I think one of the things — one of the things that should have been apparent to — to everyone was the fact that we are walking and chewing gum at the same time. As you listen to the — the number of significant operations and — and — and training events that we were conducting with allies and partners over the past year, that’s — that’s impressive in and of itself. But by the same time, we’ve been to — we’ve been able to — not only to help to unify NATO; we’ve — we’ve also led the effort to rapidly rush much-needed security assistance to — to Ukraine with the help of allies and partners, and this has been very — very important to our president, President Biden, and because of the steps that he’s taken, number one, we’re able to unify NATO in a very meaningful way. And what I mean by that is it was the president’s decision to — to share intelligence with our allies and partners, which created transparency and that built that — helped to build trust and — and has helped to keep the alliance together in a meaningful way.

It’s — it’s more united than I’ve seen it since I’ve been associated with NATO, and I take you back to 1975 when, you know, Lieutenant Austin first started down the — down the road there. I’ve been — I’ve been working with NATO for a long time.

So we are walking and chewing gum, and we’re able to do that because the strong network of alliances — alliances and partnerships that we have around the globe. And again, NATO plays a significant part in — in our work in — in Europe there, so — next question.

STAFF: Jack, Foreign Policy?

Q: Thanks, sir.

Ukraine appears to be increasingly outgunned and outmanned in the Donbas. With the U.S., is the objective still to help Ukraine win militarily and to weaken Russia militarily?

And then head of the contact group, Ukraine’s asked for a thousand more howitzers, 300 MLRS. What’s the U.S. willing to provide at this point militarily?

SEC. AUSTIN: Well, first of all, the U.S. is willing to provide everything and — and to help Ukraine be successful, mindful of the fact that we have our own readiness to — to keep in mind, and — and — but not only that; we have partners from around the globe that are willing to help Ukraine in meaningful ways. We’ve seen — you know, we — we’ve contributed a substantial number of howitzers and a significant amount of 155 ammunition already, along with so many other things. But other nations have contributed 155 howitzers, as well.

And so we’ll continue to work to get as much as we can there as fast as we can in order to — to help them be successful. And our focus is on making sure that we — we help them — or we — we give them what’s needed to protect their sovereign territory, which is where we started and where we still are, so next question.

STAFF: We’ve got time for another one. Moshe from NBC?

Q: Okay, thank you so much for joining us.

Recently, French President Macron made remarks saying not to humiliate Putin for the sake of diplomacy. I was just wondering what your response to that was. Do you agree with that? And to what extent is that part of the U.S. objective? And then lastly, are you concerned at all with divisions with allies and partners in the West with how to continue supporting Ukraine going forward?

SEC. AUSTIN: Well, I — I certainly don’t want to comment on President Macron’s statement, so I’ll leave that to President Macron to either clarify or amplify whatever statements he’s made in the past.

What we’re focused on, as you know, is — is what we’ve said all along, and that is helping Ukraine defend its sovereign territory, and it — as you watch this fight evolve, you know, I think the world has been inspired by the — by the tenacity, you know, the — the will of the Ukrainian people to — to resist and to a much greater power, a much more capable power, and — and to be effective in what they were doing. They’ve been effective because, number one, they had the training that we and the U.K. and Canada has been providing them since 2014, plus the security assistance that we poured into — into Ukraine early on.

And so we’ll stay focused on — on doing, you know, what — what we believe we need to do to help Ukraine get what it needs to defend its — its sovereignty. And again, you know, in terms of what things look like in the future and the — and — and how things evolve and how things are settled, I think the — the — the lead voice in that — in that effort will be President Zelensky and the Ukrainian people, not the United States of America, so — Okay.

Before we move on, a few of you (some of you?) know that I’m involved with something called The War, Peace, and Justice Symposium. Several of my good friends and former colleagues are organizing it. The one who came up with the idea for the symposium, a former teammate (Seminar 12 represent!), asked if I’d run a section on culture, religion, war, peace, and justice. One of the other participants, Professor Eli McCarthy, PhD who teaches at Georgetown, was involved in a faith leader visit to Ukraine on 24 May. Tomorrow he and another participant in that visit will be doing a Zoom presentation about what they observed. Here’s the description of the event:

Topic:            Ukraine Briefing

Description: The Franciscan Action Network (FAN) participated in a delegation of leaders who traveled to Kyiv in late May to express solidarity with the people of Ukraine and to pray for a just peace.

The Franciscan Monastery of the Holy Land in Washington DC will host a special hybrid event in person at the Monastery and online via this Zoom link to hear a first-hand account of the trip from two members of the delegation. Michele Dunne, FAN executive director, and Eli McCarthy, professor at Georgetown University, will discuss what they experienced and how people of faith can make a difference for peace.

After you register, you will get a Zoom link emailed to you to join the event.

Time Jun 14, 2022 07:00 PM EDT

If you’re interested in watching/hearing more, here is the registration link.

Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s Minister of Defense, did an interview with The Economist. Here’s some of it:

THE DEFENCE minister of a country under invasion doesn’t have much time for reading, but Oleksii Reznikov makes a point of studying the front pages. He is concerned by what he sees. “Either the world doesn’t quite understand what is happening,” he says, “or it does understand, is tired, and is content with a few Ukrainians dying.” When Russia attacked his country on February 24th, few expected Ukraine to survive. Heroic resistance transformed fatalism into hope, and led to promises of military support. But cracks in the Western alliance are appearing just as the war enters a bloody new phase. Ukrainian losses are now running at an average of 100-200 men a day. “We need assistance, quickly,” says the minister, “because the cost of any delay is measured in Ukrainian blood.”

When Russian tanks crossed Ukraine’s borders in the north, south and east, the 55-year-old former lawyer had been in charge of his department for less than four months. A civilian appointment to a position usually taken by former military men, Mr Reznikov had expected largely to busy himself with bureaucratic reforms. Instead he found himself reorganising defence affairs as missiles rained down on Kyiv.

His war began with a 4am phone call from Valery Zaluzhny, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, and a laconic message: “It’s started. Strikes on air defences and radars. Invasion.” That was the signal for Mr Reznikov to kiss his wife goodbye and leave for the office. The next three weeks were spent with a core team of advisers, all armed with automatic rifles. The group moved around secret locations in the capital. “One of the most uncomfortable things was waking up each morning in a new bed.”

Those tactics were part of a set of protocols developed during top-secret planning before the invasion. Publicly, the president and his defence minister played down the war threat. Privately, they prepared for the worst. Only now is Mr Reznikov able to disclose some of the details. The main trick was to declare “routine” military exercises to mirror Russian and Belarusian drills in the first weeks of February. “This was the excuse that allowed us to secretly move our military units out from their permanent bases. When the strikes came in, our guys were not all together in one place, but were ready with weapons, munitions, and scattered around the country.”

The Ukrainians had other surprises up their sleeves. They hid air-defence systems and attack aircraft, replacing them with mock-ups. They enacted a new law on territorial defence to arm around 100,000 civilians in three days. Society also organised itself in ways the Russians didn’t expect. But the key moment was Volodymyr Zelensky’s decision to stay in Kyiv. “Everyone expected the president to run and form a government in exile. But Mr Zelensky had his own script.”

Western governments came to recognise the abilities of Ukraine’s leader. And with every tactical victory on the battlefield, they began to believe that his country had a chance of winning. Opposition to sending weapons began to dissipate. A conference convened by America at its Ramstein air base in Germany on April 26th appeared to endorse the principle of arming Ukraine to victory. “The West started to believe David was beating Goliath,” says Mr Reznikov.

But vicious battles in eastern Ukraine show that assessment to be premature. Under a new commander Russian forces are exploiting Ukraine’s inferiority in artillery, multiple-launch rocket systems and aviation. Russia is squeezing Ukraine’s elite troops from a salient around the industrial town of Severodonetsk. Fighting is also hotting up on the nearby approach to Sloviansk.

If the news appears grim for both sides, it is worse for Ukraine. Returning soldiers talk of chaotic command and depleted ammunition. Inexperienced, young soldiers from volunteer units are sent to the front lines to replace fallen comrades. The minister says this is an inevitable consequence of Russia’s invasion. “How else can it be? Young guys end up on the front lines, where no one wants them to be, and they die… the world needs to know about it.”

Ukraine now needs Western help to stop the onslaught, and it is not coming fast enough. In some areas Russian forces have ten times the Ukrainians’ firepower. Multiple-launch rocket systems are in the pipeline, due to arrive “soon… perhaps in a week, perhaps two.” But Ukraine needs them in large numbers, and whether or not its allies agree to send them may depend on how Russia reacts to their deployment.

Western military chiefs have also expressed concerns that Ukraine may not be able to absorb the new hardware as fast as it would like. Mr Reznikov dismisses this: his soldiers mastered Western artillery in just two weeks, he says. The country stands ready to switch its weaponry to NATO standards within a month, he claims, rather implausibly. “As comrade Churchill said, give us the tools and we’ll finish the job.”

Mr Reznikov strains to be polite about cracks in the Western alliance. Fatigue is “a natural psychological reaction to stress”; politicians have “domestic issues” to worry about; leaders have the “obligation to think through consequences”. But occasionally frustration shines through. If war has taught him one thing, he says, it is that Ukraine’s allies speak more about human rights and freedom than defending them. “The West’s bureaucracy and pragmatism turned out to be much stronger than its values,” he says. For France and Germany, Ukraine is an irritating obstacle standing in the way of a comfortable life. Does he keep his emotions in check during difficult calls with counterparts in Paris and Berlin? “I’m professionally conditioned as a lawyer, so yes. But afterwards, informally, I can let out some fairly choice words.”

Much more at the link!

The Wall Street Journal has also published detailed reporting on what Ukraine is facing in the Donbas campaign:

The war in Ukraine has turned into a grinding artillery contest where Russia is steadily gaining ground thanks to its overwhelming advantage in firepower. As the U.S. and allies gather Wednesday to discuss fresh military aid to Kyiv, Ukraine’s fate will largely depend on how fast and in what quantities these heavy weapons arrive.

Without a broad and rapid increase in military assistance, Ukraine faces a defeat in the eastern Donbas region, Ukrainian officials warn. That would pave the way for Russia to pursue its offensive to Odessa and Kharkiv after regrouping in coming months, they say, and potentially all the way back to the capital, Kyiv, after that.

Western officials and analysts question whether Russia has the wherewithal to achieve this, even if it makes further gains in the Donbas area. They say Russia’s military has been severely battered in the war, and might lack the manpower and equipment to advance beyond the Donbas region soon.

Yet Russia still enjoys a significant superiority over Ukraine in artillery and armor. Ukrainian forces estimate that they have one artillery piece per 10 to 20 Russian ones on the front lines, with each of these guns allotted only a fraction of the ammunition at the Russian gunners’ disposal. As a result, every day that Western heavy-weapons supplies are delayed is measured in hundreds of Ukrainian casualties, they say.

While Kyiv was initially cagey about its losses, unwilling to dent the population’s morale, Ukraine’s government now acknowledges that the country’s military is losing between 100 and 200 soldiers killed in action each day, with about five times that number injured daily.

“In this war, the victory will be with the side that has more and better weapons. And, if Ukraine doesn’t obtain enough weapons in time, it will bleed out,” said Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to Ukraine’s interior minister.

Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak published a wish list of weapons Monday that he said would help Ukraine end the war, including 1,000 howitzers, 300 multiple-launch rocket systems and 500 tanks.

“We are waiting for a decision,” he wrote on Twitter.

Despite such setbacks, Moscow retains a huge advantage in armor, artillery, aircraft and missiles over Ukraine, said John Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador to Kyiv now with the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington.

“The terrain in the east favors those Russian advantages. It’s open. There is no question that the Russians have made incremental gains in the last few weeks,” he said.

Ukraine, unlike Russia, doesn’t have the capacity to manufacture ammunition for Soviet-legacy heavy weapons that make up the bulk of its forces, and is running out of stocks, Ukrainian officials say. While artillery shells and mortars can be procured in Eastern Europe, the shortage is particularly acute for multiple-launch rocket systems such as Uragan and Smerch.

At the current rate of advance, absent a sizable increase in Western weapons deliveries, it would likely take the Russians until August or September to take all of the Donbas region, Ukrainian officials estimate. While economic sanctions have made life more difficult for Moscow, especially when it comes to securing Western technology, high oil prices mean that Mr. Putin can afford to continue the war.

Russia’s current-account surplus rose to $110.3 billion in the first four months of the year from $32.1 billion in the same period last year, according to the central bank. The International Monetary Fund forecasts that Russia’s economy will shrink this year by 8.5%, while Ukraine’s will shrivel by 35%. Russian missile strikes have systematically targeted Ukraine’s industrial facilities, oil refineries and transport infrastructure, while a Russian naval blockade has prevented most exports of Ukrainian wheat

If Russia secures the Donbas region, Mr. Putin might pause the offensive to regroup and rearm, Ukrainian officials estimate. A cease-fire that some European politicians are proposing, and that would maintain Russian control over southern Ukraine, could last several months or even years.

But that pause would be just a prelude to a fiercer assault, they say, as Mr. Putin’s strategic goal—seizing Kyiv and eliminating Ukraine as a sovereign state—remains unchanged.

“They will keep going until someone stops them,” said Ukraine’s former defense minister, Andriy Zagorodnyuk, who advises President Zelensky’s government. “Some people still think that the Russians can be stopped with talks, with concessions. No, they can only be stopped with weapons—of which we are not receiving enough. This is the crux of the problem.”

After initially refraining from supplying Ukraine with Western heavy weapons out of fears about Moscow’s reaction, the U.S. and allies in late April began to ship NATO-standard 155 mm artillery systems and 155 mm ammunition, with more than 100 of these guns already reaching the battlefield. Poland has also shipped hundreds of Soviet-designed T-72 tanks, while the U.S. and the U.K. are preparing the transfer of some long-range multiple-launch rocket-system, or MLRS, platforms.

Yet, amid the most intensive military conflict that Europe has witnessed since World War II, those supplies haven’t been anywhere near sufficient to offset the thousands of weapons systems that Russia has poured into the Donbas front.

Ukrainian officials have been asking the U.S. and allies for Western-made MLRS platforms since the war began, but it was only this month that the Biden administration decided to send four high-mobility artillery rocket-system, or Himars, platforms and guided multiple-launch rocket-system rockets with a range exceeding 40 miles. The U.K. has agreed to supply three M270 MLRS systems with a 50-mile range.

While Washington has indicated that the four pledged Himars are just an initial tranche, the U.S. hasn’t specified the time frame and scope of future deliveries. “They are giving us four pieces, but what is needed is a couple of hundred. We don’t know how many more will come, when they will come, and so we cannot plan ahead—which is a problem,” said Mr. Zagorodnyuk.

Much, much more at the link!

Here’s Mykhailo Podylyk’s wishlist:

Being straightforward – to end the war we need heavy weapons parity:

1000 howitzers caliber 155 mm;
300 MLRS;
500 tanks;
2000 armored vehicles;
1000 drones.

Contact Group of Defense Ministers meeting is held in #Brussels on June 15. We are waiting for a decision.

— Михайло Подоляк (@Podolyak_M) June 13, 2022

And here’s the most recent appeal by Ukraine’s Foreign Minister:

Ukraine has proven it can punch well above its weight and win important battles against all odds: Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv. Imagine what Ukraine can do with sufficient tools. I urge partners to set a clear goal of Ukrainian victory and speed up deliveries of heavy weapons.

— Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) June 13, 2022

War On the Rocks has done a new episode of their podcast with Michael Korfman, who is the Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis (CNA). Here’s the link. And here’s the description:

This is not an optimistic episode. Michael Kofman speculates that the war might be in its most dangerous phase. Why is that? Ukraine’s casualties and shortages in munitions are beginning to show as Russia is gaining some operational advantages in the Donbass. Further, Russia’s efforts to fill its manpower gaps have been partially successful without relying primarily on conscripts and conducting a large mobilization. Ryan and Mike speculate that, in the end, this war will be decided by the country that can endure the longest, in terms of their economies, logistics, materiel, and political will. And Ukraine’s endurance is tied up closely with the will of the West to continue backing Ukraine with arms and other supplies in a war that could continue to drag on for months, if not years.

The Center for Naval Analysis is a Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC). The most well known is RAND. We have a regular commenter who works at one of the other FFRDCs should he wish to provide further details on what they are and what they do. Absent that, here’s a master list of them.

I think that’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

We have the winning entries of the draw Patron competition!

Ukraine's State Emergency Service announced the winners of children's competition of works with the famous dog-pyrotechnic Patron

The authors of these drawings were promised soft toys in the form of a famous dog https://t.co/YTj5PcO07U pic.twitter.com/ofrlLNsJ5E

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) June 14, 2022

All five winning entries can be seen at this article at Ukrainska Pravda.

The State Emergency Service summed up the results of the competition of children’s works with the image of the famous dog-pyrotechnic Patron. Rescuers announced a drawing contest on Children’s Day on June 1. Works could be submitted until June 8, and voting for the best drawings began on June 9. The winners were promised a soft toy in the form of a famous dog. “We have received an incredible number of bright and wonderful works depicting our four-legged mascot Patron,” the SES said.

The organizers chose 5 winners of the competition and noted that not all participants followed the rules, so the winners were determined without taking into account the “rigged” votes.

Alright, which one of you voted multiple times????

From Patron’s TikTok, here’s some images of him as a puppy!

@patron__dsns

✨ #патрон #песпатрон #патрондснс

♬ House of the Rising Sun – Lil srwg

Open thread!

Ukrainians!

All our defenders!

After the missile strike at the Ternopil region, ten people are still in hospitals. There was no tactical or strategic sense in this strike, as in the vast majority of other Russian strikes. This is terror, just terror.

Among the victims is a 12-year-old girl from Kharkiv. She went to the Ternopil region to flee from the Russian army. And such facts will now determine perception of Russia in the world. Not Peter I or Lev Tolstoy, but children wounded and killed by Russian strikes.

Today is the 109th day of a full-scale war, but it is not the 109th day as we tell our partners a simple thing: Ukraine needs modern missile defense systems. The supply of such systems was possible this year, last year and even earlier. Did we get them? No. Do we need them? Yes. There have already been 2606 affirmative answers to this question in the form of various Russian cruise missiles that have hit Ukrainian cities. Our cities, our villages for the period from February 24. These are lives that could have been saved, these are tragedies that could have been prevented if Ukraine had been listened to.

The key tactical goal of the occupiers has not changed. They are pressing in Severodonetsk, where very fierce fighting is going on – literally for every meter. And they are also pressing in the direction of Lysychansk, Bakhmut, Slovyansk and so on.

The Russian army is trying to deploy reserve forces in Donbas. But what reserves can they have now? It seems that they will try to throw into battle poorly trained conscripts and those who were gathered by covert mobilization. Russian generals see their people simply as the cannon fodder they need to gain an advantage in numbers — in manpower, in military equipment. And this means only one thing: Russia can cross the line of 40,000 of its lost troops already in June. In no other war in many decades have they lost so much.

I prepared an address to the American Jewish Committee. A global forum organized by the committee began in New York today. This is one of the most influential structures that helps promote decisions for our protection.

I called on them to redouble their efforts so that we could get more modern weapons, more financial support for our state, so that we could end this war sooner.

This week I will continue to address the parliaments of the partner countries, in particular the parliament of the Czech Republic.

Many talks of various levels with European politicians are also planned.

We work every day with the European Union on the candidate status for Ukraine, and our state has done everything for a positive response. The only question is the determination of some European leaders.

We will continue to work to facilitate access of Ukrainian goods to all important markets around the world. Customs duties on trade with the European Union have already been abolished. The United States already applies a duty-free regime for Ukrainian steel. Canada has abolished customs duties. The same regime will work in the near future with Britain. We expect trade liberalization from Australia.

The Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization has started today. Before it began, representatives of 57 countries gathered for a special event of solidarity with Ukraine, and I am grateful to them – to each and everyone – for that. And as a result of this intergovernmental conference, we will learn, in particular, the timing of the decision on trade liberalization for Ukraine from Switzerland, Norway, Liechtenstein, Iceland.

So the week will be significant. And I believe that there will be good news for Ukraine.

I am grateful to all who defend our state!

Eternal memory to all who gave their lives for Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

As you can see, President Zelenskyy continues to press for more weaponry. And for that already announced to be sent faster. Last night in the comments Carlo Graziani wrote:

Well, here’s what looks kind of interesting to me.

In Sieverodonetsk there’s a slugfest (not a “stalemate” according to Mark Hertling), probably intended to deliberately grind down Russian manpower resources on terms more favorable to UA than what they could obtaining open countryside.

To the southwest, a new offensive is annoying lower-quality Russian troops guarding the far reaches of the “land bridge” surrounding Kherson.

Somehow, 200 tanks donated by Poland to Ukraine, the only truly “offensive” weapons on the public lists of donations, have not, so far as I am aware, made an appearance on the battlefield.

Meanwhile, this week there have been a number of “poor us, we’re fucked in the Donbas!” news stories peddled in a very consistent manner to Western media, notably the NYT. And more requests for purely reactive, defensive weapons, more artillery to counteract Rusdian artillery.

I smell a rat. I don’t believe the UA have any intention of continuing to be passive playthings in the hands of the Russian army. I think they are husbanding a reserve, and intend to take the initiative, and are play-acting for the sake of misdirection.

There’s a highway between Zaporizhzhia and Melitopol that would make a very nice drive for a strong column of tanks, APCs, dismounted infantry, helicopters, and sundry supplies. If they completed that jaunt, they would really put the cat among the pigeons. The Russians around Kherson, and in Crimea, would be basically fucked — they might as well slit their own throats. And the Russians in the Donbas are basically out of everything.

Just a toy scenario.

This is an interesting argument. It is logically and internally coherent.

However, I am here to smash Carlo’s toy!!!!

The Ukrainian military is fighting the way it is fighting in the Donbas campaign because it has no choice. It is not designed nor equipped to conduct combined arms maneuver warfare at scale. What made the Ukrainian military successful in the defense of Kyiv – small teams/units, small unit tactics, hybrid warfare combining conventional and unconventional warfare elements, and fighting in dense forests, as well as urban areas – is what the Ukrainian military is set up to do. Ukrainian forces have a lot of experience fighting this way. That experience was dearly learned and earned over the past eight years. Additionally, this is not a knock on Ukraine’s tankers or artillerists or its pilots, its just that there aren’t enough of those men and women. And there isn’t enough material and equipment for them.

There are two completely unrelated bits of good news here though.

The first is that while the Russian military is supposed to be capable of conducting combined arms maneuver warfare at scale and in the open, what we’ve learned over the past 108 days is that they can’t actually do it. Their material and equipment is either poorly maintained or really old. Their personnel just aren’t capable of doing what they’re supposed to have been able to do. Unfortunately the Russians have more artillery and air assets, as well as longer range ones, which they’re using to just bombard everything they can reach in Ukraine into dust. They also have more personnel, even if a lot of those personnel aren’t properly trained and don’t really want to fight.

The second is that the Ukrainians are very smart. They’re also determined. And they’re defending their homes. If they lose they don’t just lose and then pack their stuff up and go home. If they lose they lose their home. Which is why President Zelenskyy and everyone else involved in leading Ukraine’s military and diplomatic efforts, as well as a very large amount of Ukrainians in general, are constantly delineating what they need and that they needed it back in November!

The Kyiv Independent‘s defense/military correspondent, Illia Ponomarkenko, provides support for this:

Sorry, had to delete the tweet’s previous version, as it was saying “2,000 MLRSs” which is of course not realistic :)) Just my honest mistake.
This is what experts inside the Ukrainian defense and security sector say regarding an optimal amount of weapons we should get.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 12, 2022

As does Rolling Stone‘s Mac William Bishop in his latest reporting from Ukraine.

NEAR LYMAN, Ukraine — Crossing the final checkpoint into a battle zone feels like a consecration.

The Ukrainian soldiers manning the last friendly post have a singular focus and intensity that’s lacking behind the lines. They wave us through solemnly, without smiles or chatter. We coast through the invisible barrier separating the “front” from the “rear,” then floor the gas and accelerate forward.

I’m in eastern Ukraine in late May, in a region called Donbas, where the war has become a whirlwind of carnage that is claiming the lives of as many as 100 Ukrainian soldiers a day. The casualties on the Russian side are almost certainly even higher, according to Ukrainian defense officials. I’ve heard conflicting reports about what is happening here, about whether the Ukrainian military is collapsing or the Russians are succeeding in breaking through the defender’s lines, cutting off thousands of soldiers. But it’s clear that Russia is inching forward, each day bringing it closer to its goal of annexing the provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk and cementing the region under Moscow’s rule.

Ukraine won’t stop fighting. But it is sacrificing thousands of its finest soldiers and still losing ground. It cannot win the war without game-changing foreign-military assistance: American heavy artillery, Danish anti-ship missiles, German air-defense systems — these are slowly making their way to the battlefield. But can the Ukrainian military hold out long enough for any of it to make a difference?

To truly understand what is going on — to get a sense of morale and see how the soldiers are holding up under Russian assault, I must descend into the inferno, and I need a guide. A Ukrainian paratrooper will lead the way.

I’ve called in favors with the commander of a reconnaissance company in an air-assault brigade, and he links me up with an officer whose elite scout unit is operating near intense fighting outside a town called Lyman, a senior lieutenant who goes by the nom de guerre “Mace.”

Mace is soft-spoken and cordial, lean and fit as an endurance athlete. His face is that of a young man, but the salt-and-pepper hair hidden beneath his field hat and his calm self-possession amid chaos reveal he is a seasoned veteran who saw his share of combat before the current invasion. He takes me to the front in a Škoda station wagon, roaring down country back roads at 100-plus miles an hour, blasting techno as the foliage whips past in a blur.

The Russians are ceaselessly hunting Ukrainian heavy weapons, and their rockets, artillery, and missiles can strike anywhere here, at any time. The fields beside us are pockmarked with blast impacts, and the tails of dozens of dud rockets stick out of the earth as if planted by some mad farmer.

“This is hell on Earth,” Mace says quietly. We are watching as BM-21 Grad rockets rain down on Ukrainian positions near a village called Sviatohirsk. It’s impossible to see their individual effects amid the smoke and haze covering the densely forested hills. Standing in an observation post on high ground amid feathery grass and wild garlic, I give up on trying to count individual impacts and instead just count the salvos, timing each barrage. I witness as many as 480 rockets fired on a single position in less than a minute, followed by artillery.

Between my service in the U.S. Marines and over more than a decade as a foreign correspondent, I’ve been engaged in the professional study of organized human violence for 25 years. But I’ve never seen anything even close to this volume of artillery being unleashed.

Mace has chosen our ground well, as you’d expect from an officer in an elite reconnaissance unit. We’re in a fold of earth on a hill that gives us a clear view of the battle raging around Sviatohirsk — a quiet little village nestled among chalk hills, overlooked by a nearly 400-year-old monastery on the opposite side of the river. It lies to our left. We can also see the fighting around Lyman — a key railway junction — to our right.

What these two places have in common is they are on the Russian-occupied side of the winding Seversky Donets River, the main natural barrier to the enemy’s advance. There are tens of thousands of Russian soldiers with hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles attacking here, assaulting in a vast crescent surrounding Severodonetsk, one of the largest cities in Donbas that remained in Ukrainian hands before the invasion began in February.

“Things usually start to really kick off around 3 p.m.,” Mace says. He describes what has become routine for his brigade of paratroopers: Russian scouts move forward to probe Ukrainian positions, then call in large-scale artillery strikes when they make contact. The artillery is followed by masses of armor supported by infantry. It’s classic “combined arms” warfare, and would have been as familiar to a soldier in World War II as it is to Mace.

“The biggest problem is the artillery,” Mace says. “The Russians just have so much.”

What about the long-range artillery being provided by the United States and others?

“It’s just starting to show up on the battlefield,” Mace says. But for now, “there’s just too much artillery. Too many tanks. We are fighting too hard.”

Much, much more at the link! As well as in this Twitter thread by Bishop, which includes pictures.

If we can get the Ukrainians the weapons they need as soon as possible, then they’ll be able to do what needs to be done with them. Every day of delay, whether its because Olaf Scholz is Olaf Scholz or because of any other reason, is day that is good for Russia and bad for Ukraine.

Here’s today’s updated assessment from the British MOD:

You’ll notice that the Brits are highlighting that the Russians have the ability to bring more forces and more artillery to bear in and around Sievierodonetsk and that they are doing so. What they don’t have is the ability to do this at scale and take advantage of the open, flat spaces in the Donbas.

They also have an updated map too!

As you can see, the overall picture still looks stable as the Donbas campaign is a battle for small amounts of territory at a time.

Here’s former NAVDEVGRU squadron leader Chuck Pfarrer’s updated map and analysis of the battle for Sievierodonetsk:

SIEVERODONTETSK/ 1440 UTC 12 JUN/ RU forces attempt to widen urban combat. UKR, fighting from advantageous defensive positions, continue to punish invaders. Airport recaptured. 2 Donets bridges reported cut by UKR Gen’l Staff. Urban Forward Edge of Battle Area (FEBA) stable. pic.twitter.com/nLev1OeTcL

— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) June 12, 2022

Russia, using its proxies in Luhansk, have tried, convicted and sentenced to death three non-Ukrainians who were in the Ukrainian military that the Russians captured in Mariupol. Politico has the details:

Top human rights experts are slamming the death sentences handed down by a Russian-backed court in eastern Ukraine this week against two Britons and a Moroccan who were fighting with the Ukrainian army against Russian troops and their separatist allies.

The sentence, announced Thursday after a show trial in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) — an area only recognized as independent by Russia — found that British citizensAIDEN ASLIN and SHAUN PINNER, and Moroccan national BRAHIM SAADOUNE be shot.

It was just the latest in a long line of show trials put on by Russian-backed separatist courts dating to the Russian invasion in 2014, in which lawful Ukrainian combatants have regularly been convicted and sentenced to death in ad hoc “courts.” In the often gruesome spectacles, audiences vote on whether to execute the soldiers. Those proceedings have regularly violated the Geneva Convention.

“There’s no legal basis for the trial” in the DPR this week, according to MICHAEL NEWTON, a law professor at Vanderbilt University, adding that the Kremlin is ultimately responsible for what happens to the men.

“The Russians have the obligation to accord prisoner of war status to all persons who come into their custody or the custody of their proxies,” under the Geneva Convention’s Article Five, Newton said. Once the separatist or Russian troops capture combatants on the battlefield, they are “entitled to all protections equivalent to Russian soldiers,” added Newton, who served as the senior adviser to the ambassador-at-large for War Crimes Issues in the State Department.

International criminal courts and tribunals “use a standard we call overall control, so if you can show that Russia was funding and or organizing in some way, then this is directly imputable to Russia,” said LEILA SADAT, professor of International Criminal Law at Washington University who has also served as the International Criminal Court’s special adviser on crimes against humanity.

“It’s not illegal to serve in the army,” Sadat said, adding that the Geneva Convention’s Article Three “requires that prisoners be tried by an independent, impartial and regularly constituted court … but nothing about this sounds like it fulfills the requirements of an independent, impartial and regularly constituted court.”

VADYM DENYSENKO, a Ukrainian Interior Ministry adviser, said on national television Friday that Russia is holding the men “hostage” and their death sentence “raises the stakes in the Russian Federation’s negotiation process. They are using them as hostages to put pressure on the world over the negotiation process.”

U.K. Foreign Secretary LIZ TRUSS said Thursday, “I utterly condemn the sentencing of Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner held by Russian proxies in eastern Ukraine. They are prisoners of war. This is a sham judgment with absolutely no legitimacy.”

In any trial of captured troops, “what should happen is an administrative process under Article Five of the Third Geneva Convention that says ‘here’s the evidence of who these people are, what they did,’ etc. but [the court] didn’t do any of that, they just put them on trial” for fighting off the Russian invasion.

Much, much more at the link!

While Aiden Aslin, aka Cossak Gundi, and Shuan Pinner have gotten a lot of coverage, less has been written about Brahim Sadooune. This Twitter thread has the details:

Brahim was a figure on the underground nightclub scene and had many friends in the city before signing up to join the Ukrainian marines in November 2021. Those friends are deeply concerned about his fate and have launched the social media campaign #SaveBrahim pic.twitter.com/vkXfgV5oyG

— Catherine Norris Trent (@cntrentF24) June 12, 2022

Brahim, like Britons Aiden Aslin and Sean Pinner, whom he knew well, intends to appeal his death sentence. But his friends are concerned that as a Moroccan national, his case will receive less international attention. They’re calling for him to receive Ukrainian citizenship 4/ pic.twitter.com/ggi8N7pwNH

— Catherine Norris Trent (@cntrentF24) June 12, 2022

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

The story of #Patron and his human 💛💙 #PatronDoge pic.twitter.com/aA6QqFfADP

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 11, 2022

Open thread!

I wish health to all Ukrainians and all our friends!

The final phase of the big diplomatic marathon, which is to end in a week and a half, has started today. And in this marathon we are actually together with the European Union – in one team, and this team has to win. I am sure that we will soon receive an answer on the candidate status for Ukraine. I am convinced that this decision can strengthen not only our state, but also the entire European Union.

What else needs to happen in Europe to make it clear to skeptics that the very fact of keeping Ukraine outside the European Union works against Europe? For example, everything is already obvious to the Russian occupiers. They say so when they torment our people that it is allegedly for the fact that Ukraine has gone to Europe. And why does Europe have skeptics then?

We will continue to work even harder at all levels to get the right decision. It is very important for us.

Very fruitful talks with President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen were held in Kyiv today. I am pleased to note her sincerity. It is the European Commission that will prepare a conclusion regarding our application. Ukraine provided all the necessary answers in a very short time, and it was done well.

There will be many more equally important and, I hope, fruitful talks with European leaders next week.

I talked to the participants of a very representative security forum in Asia, in Singapore. High level. The event was attended by defense ministers and other high-ranking officials from dozens of countries of the region. We really need this region. And I felt that today my address was heard there, arguments were heard and perceived.

News about the distribution of Russian passports in Kherson and the distribution of passports in Melitopol were actively spread in the occupied territories and in Russia. And I looked at who in this news was shown as Kherson and Melitopol residents who allegedly want Russian passports. A few collaborators and people from their entourage… Well, it looked like not a queue to get a passport, but an attempt to get a ticket to flee. Very demonstrative.

The Ukrainian troops are gradually liberating the territory of the Kherson region. Today the village of Tavriis’ke has been added to the list of returned settlements of our state. There is certain success in the Zaporizhzhia region as well.

Fierce street battles continue in Severodonetsk. I am proud of all our defenders who managed to stop the advance of these hostile people, these occupiers for many weeks already and keep our defense strong.

Do you remember how Russia hoped to capture the entire Donbas in early May? It is already the 108th day of the war, it is already June. Donbas is holding on. The losses suffered by the occupiers, including in this area, are extremely significant. In total, the Russian army today has about 32,000 dead souls. For what? What did it give you, Russia?

No one can say now how long this burning of souls by Russia will last. But we must do everything to make the occupiers regret that they have done all this, and to hold them accountable for every murder and every strike at our beautiful state.

Eternal glory to all who defend Ukraine!

Eternal memory to all who died for Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

There was no operational update again today from Ukraine’s MOD, though there were some other updates on the English version of the site. So hopefully whatever is going on with their public affairs is getting sorted out. There was also not a DOD backgrounder today.

Here is today’s assessment from Britain’s MOD:

They did not update their maps today.

You’ll notice that the British assessment is that Russian forces are still not able to make much progress in Sievierodonetsk even as it is still holding a majority of the city.

Here’s former NAVDEVGRU squad leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent map update and analysis regarding the battle of Sievierodonetsk:

SEVERODONETSK / 1630 UTC 11 JUN/ Conflicting information. UKR forces reported by reliable sources to be in control of airport, and may have advanced NE to the important T-13-06 HWY. Heavy combat and shelling continues. pic.twitter.com/88jKAWRx1c

— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) June 11, 2022

Horomadske International is reporting that Russia maintains control of 2/3 of Sievierodonetsk:

As of June 11, Ukrainian forces control one-third of Sievierodonetsk in Luhansk Oblast. Intense fighting continues in the city, which is accompanied by constant bombing. Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to push the Russian troops back, said Head of Sievierodonetsk Civil-Military Administration Oleksandr Striuk to BBC Russian Service.

Striuk also said that the territory of Sievierodonetsk Azot chemical plant was “attacked both from the air and from heavy artillery” on June 10. “Yesterday, an ammonia processing plant exploded and a warehouse with chemical waste, which has been burning for 24 hours,” he said.

Striuk added that Sievierodonetsk has been living without a water supply for about two months now because the city is disconnected from the electricity.

“High-voltage lines are damaged, and 70% of substations in the city were destroyed by shelling. There are casualties — mostly from Russian artillery because residential neighborhoods are being constantly shelled. The streets on the city outskirts are completely destroyed,” said Oleksandr Striuk.

On May 25, Serhiy Haidai, Head of Luhansk Regional Military Administration, said that the Russian forces occupied 95% of Luhansk Oblast. There are now more than 40,000 people living in the territory of the region controlled by Ukraine; 99% of this population do not want to leave.

As of the morning of June 10, the Lysychansk-Bakhmut highway remains under Ukrainian control, despite being under constant Russian shelling.

Evacuation from Sievierodonetsk is now impossible. But the Ukrainian authorities manage to “quietly” evacuate people from Lysychansk and Hirske communities and deliver humanitarian aid to those areas. According to Haidai, as soon as Russian troops learn about the evacuation, a humanitarian center, or a working hospital, these points will be immediately shelled.

More at the link!

President Biden made a major strategic communication error at a fundraiser in Los Angeles last night. The Washington Post has the details:

President Biden said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “didn’t want to hear it” when U.S. intelligence officials raised warnings of a looming Russian attack before the Feb. 24 invasion.

Biden, who along with Congress has deepened U.S. involvement in the global effort to reject the Russian invasion by recently finalizing more than $40 billion in new military and humanitarian assistance, spoke at a Democratic fundraising event in Los Angeles on Friday night, according to the Associated Press and Bloomberg News. The president spoke about the American commitment to supporting Ukraine four months into the invasion, saying, “Nothing like this has happened since World War II.”

During his talk, Biden also mentioned that his administration had warned Zelensky and the Ukrainian government, based on U.S. intelligence, before the invasion began.

“I know a lot of people thought I was maybe exaggerating,” the president said, according to the AP.

Biden said he “knew we had data to sustain” that Russian President Vladimir Putin “was going to go in, off the border.”

“There was no doubt, and Zelensky didn’t want to hear it, nor did a lot of people,” Biden said, according to Bloomberg. “I understand why they didn’t want to hear it, but [Putin] went in.”

Ukrainian officials, however, rejected Biden’s account.

Serhiy Nykyforov, a spokesman for Zelensky, told Ukrainian news website LIGA.net that Zelensky had three or four telephone conversations with Biden in the period before the invasion, in which the two leaders discussed the situation. He added that Ukraine had called for preventive sanctions to de-escalate the situation.

“Therefore, the phrase ‘did not want to hear’ probably needs clarification,” Nykyforov said.

Zelensky adviser Mykhailo Podolyak echoed Nykyforov, telling LIGA.net that Ukraine knew Russia was planning an invasion but that questions had remained over the scale of any attack.

“It is absurd to accuse a country of resisting the aggressor for more than 100 days, which prevails if key countries have failed to stop Russia as a precaution,” he said.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment early Saturday.

Much, much more at the link!

I don’t care if this is true. I don’t care if President Biden thinks it’s true based on what he’s been briefed by his national security team. I don’t care if his national security team thinks it’s true. YOU DO NOT NEED TO TELL THIS TO ANYONE!!!! ESPECIALLY A CROWD OF PEOPLE WHERE IT IS MOST DEFINITELY GOING TO GET TO THE NEWS MEDIA!!!!!

This is a major strategic communication failure. Completely unnecessary strategic own goal.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Patron the bomb sniffing dog in Lviv pic.twitter.com/VvVOOA4KQO

— Philip Ittner (@PhilipIttner) June 8, 2022

A Ukrainian store on Etsy is selling these in addition to a variety of other stuffed toys – javelins, bayraktars, the Antonov Mriya, etc – and other crafts.

Here’s some more video of Patron sleeping through a press conference:

@patron__dsns

😴 #песпатрон #патрондснс #патрон

♬ Jiggle Jiggle – Duke & Jones & Louis Theroux

Open thread!