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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

I’m starting to think Jesus may have made a mistake saving people with no questions asked.

People really shouldn’t expect the government to help after they watched the GOP drown it in a bathtub.

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Hi god, it’s us. Thanks a heap, you’re having a great week and it’s only Thursday!

These are not very smart people, and things got out of hand.

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It’s pointless to bring up problems that can only be solved with a time machine.

Imperialist aggressors must be defeated, or the whole world loses.

Jesus watching the most hateful people claiming to be his followers

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

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Hegseth

by @heymistermix.com|  January 14, 202511:47 am| 174 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Hegseth

The FBI didn’t bother to interview Hegseth’s accuser.

The FBI’s probe into defense secretary nominee Pete Hegseth did not include an interview with a woman who accused the former Fox News anchor of sexual assault in 2017, sources familiar with the situation told ABC News.

The top senators on the Armed Services Committee were briefed on the FBI’s background investigation last week but sources said investigators did not speak to the accuser.

A police report previously obtained by ABC News, stated that a woman — who is identified only as Jane Doe — told investigators in October 2017 that she had encountered Hegseth at an event afterparty at a California hotel where both had been drinking and claimed that he sexually assaulted her.

As usual the FBI is a political organization with a keen perception of which side their bread is buttered.  See, also, Kavanaugh.  Jane Mayer did a better job than they did, uncovering things like Hegseth downing three G&Ts starting at 10 AM as recently as 2023.  It doesn’t matter much since most of the Democrats won’t see the report anyway.

Shaheen and Gillibrand are hitting him hard on his attitude towards women in today’s confirmation hearing.  Here’s the AP live feed.  Besides being an (alleged) rapist and alcoholic, he’s also grossly unqualified, lacking anything like the experience needed to run an organization the size of the DoD.

Trumpistas are pouring a ton of money into this fight, and Trump is making it a loyalty test.  So we’ll see if the norms of the cooling saucer of democracy will allow Hegseth’s nomination to be filibustered.  I don’t know the answer to that, but I’m skeptical.

HegsethPost + Comments (174)

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: Back to the Grind

by Anne Laurie|  January 14, 20258:58 am| 138 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republican Venality, Trump Crime Cartel

Watch: Around 80 worshippers bathed in ice water at a shrine in Tokyo to pray for good health. Men only wore traditional loincloths while women donned white robes as they took the plunge during the traditional New Year festival, also known as “Kanchu Misogi.” pic.twitter.com/hrsR8hES2n

— The Associated Press (@AP) January 14, 2025

BREAKING: Special counsel Jack Smith says his team "stood up for the rule of law" in new report submitted to Congress detailing his team's findings about Donald Trump's efforts to cling to power after the 2020 election. https://t.co/GjNzIX5YL0

— The Associated Press (@AP) January 14, 2025

Special counsel Jack Smith said his team “stood up for the rule of law” as it investigated President-elect Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election, writing in a much-anticipated report released Tuesday that he stands fully behind his decision to bring criminal charges that he believes would have resulted in a conviction had voters not returned Trump to the White House.

“The throughline of all of Mr. Trump’s criminal efforts was deceit — knowingly false claims of election fraud — and the evidence shows that Mr. Trump used these lies as a weapon to defeat a federal government function foundational to the United States’ democratic process,” the report states.

The report, arriving just days before Trump is to return to office on Jan. 20, focuses fresh attention on the Republican’s frantic but failed effort to cling to power in 2020 after he lost to Democrat Joe Biden. With the prosecution foreclosed thanks to Trump’s 2024 election victory, the document is expected to be the final Justice Department chronicle of a dark chapter in American history that threatened to disrupt the peaceful transfer of power, a bedrock of democracy for centuries, and complements already released indictments and reports…

The Justice Department transmitted the report to Congress early Tuesday after a judge refused a defense effort to block its release. A separate volume of the report focused on Trump’s hoarding of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago, actions that formed the basis of a separate indictment against Trump, will remain under wraps for now.

The report is unsparing in its details about schemes undertaken by Trump to undo the presidential contest, accusing him of an “unprecedented criminal effort to overturn the legitimate results of the election in order to retain power.”

It recounts his role in trying to force the Justice Department to use its law enforcement authorities to advance his personal interests, participating in a scheme to enlist fake electors in battleground states won by Biden and having directed “an angry mob to the United States Capitol to obstruct the congressional certification of the presidential election and then leverage rioters’ violence to further delay it.”…

Though most of the details of Trump’s efforts to undo the election are already well established, the document includes for the first time a detailed assessment from Smith about his investigation, as well as a defense by Smith against criticism by Trump and his allies that the inquiry was politicized or that he worked in collaboration with the White House — an assessment he called “laughable.”

“While we were not able to bring the cases we charged to trial, I believe the fact that our team stood up for the rule of law matters,” Smith wrote in a letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland attached to the report. “I believe the example our team set for others to fight for justice without regard for the personal costs matters.”…

 
Good advice:

These are good questions, but we need social support too.
Think about forming a group of friends or colleagues with whom you can do reality checks. Trump's power comes from keeping us off balance.

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— Cheryl Rofer (@cherylrofer.bsky.social) January 12, 2025 at 9:24 AM

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Also on point…

I actually think part of the problem the Democrats face in the current political climate is that the instinct to argue from a position of "everything sucks, everything is broken" strengthens the reactionary, nostalgic appeal of their opponents, but its a habit they can't seem to shake.

— "Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux (@bretdevereaux.bsky.social) January 12, 2025 at 12:23 PM

Liberalism cannot admit that it won. Bread was conquered and a human being can feed themselves for a day on just an hour of minimum wage work. Universal mass suffrage. Universal high school education. 40 hour work weeks. The sum of human knowledge in your pocket.

— Sasho Todorov (@sashotodorov.bsky.social) January 12, 2025 at 12:26 PM

How does a millenia long struggle defined by seizing gains from a ruling class manage to shift to a mentality where the primary purpose is to protect, defend, and promote how strong those gains were?

— Sasho Todorov (@sashotodorov.bsky.social) January 12, 2025 at 12:28 PM

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: Back to the Grind

(Clay Jones via GoComics.com)

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: Back to the GrindPost + Comments (138)

Grim Dawn Open Thread: Pete Hegseth Has A Senate Confirmation Hearing Today

by Anne Laurie|  January 14, 20254:36 am| 230 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, Military, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republican Venality, Trump Crime Cartel

Women make up nearly one in five members of our military – serving on the frontlines. But Pete Hegseth, Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Defense, doesn’t believe women in the military should serve in combat roles.

That's a national security risk. pic.twitter.com/2dOj6VgOgZ

— Elizabeth Warren (@SenWarren) January 13, 2025

Unless, of course, it gets rescheduled again, for reasons (that his GOP defenders haven’t been able to scrub his record, or his language, to the point where even Fox News can defend his nomination). This is the first confirmation for one of the incoming maladministration’s choices, which is yet another reason for its high profile.

Hegseth’s career could’ve been written for a prestige tv miniseries as a bombshell designed to damage the maximum number of female Senators on both sides of the aisle (which is no doubt part of his appeal to his defenders). At NYMag, Rebecca Traister says “Pete Hegseth Is a Test”:

Pete Hegseth is, by every measure, an abysmal nominee to run the American military. The Army National Guard veteran and former Fox News commentator has no experience managing enormous, complex organizations like the Pentagon and would, as secretary of Defense, be in charge of an $850 billion budget and 3 million active-duty and civilian personnel. His spotty professional record includes having been asked to step down from two nonprofit veterans’ groups whose budgets he reportedly ran into the ground. Questions about his personal behavior abound: He has been accused of rape (he reached a civil settlement with his accuser in 2017) and has a reported habit of excessive drinking, including while on the job and to the point of incapacitation in public. He has defended waterboarding and torture, advocated on behalf of alleged war criminals, and as recently as November he declared, “I’m straight up just saying that we should not have women in combat roles.” Even Republicans haven’t been able to find much good to say about him. “If it were a secret ballot,” one moderate senator told me, “I don’t think he’d be confirmed.”

But the battle for his confirmation will not be secret; it will be glaringly public, with televised hearings of the Senate Armed Services Committee scheduled for Tuesday. It is the first serious test of Donald Trump’s newly invigorated strongman model of governance and of whether he can continue to bend the Republican Party to his will even as Hegseth breaks procedural precedents, including skirting a vetting process designed to protect national security. It is also a window into the influence that Trump’s heavy, Elon Musk, is exerting across Washington by threatening to bankroll primary challenges of anyone who defies Trump. And Hegseth’s nomination is a measure of just how strenuously Democrats are planning to fight back, at a moment when they are powerless to stop the Republicans in Congress and are second-guessing past resistance efforts that have been retrospectively cast as failures. Trump has singled out Hegseth as the figure he cares most about pushing through, his next administration’s big opening number, showcasing what he hopes will be his own party’s submission to his whims and the Democrats’ humiliating impotence in the face of his authority.

The Armed Services Committee is not one that has historically been the venue for explosive partisan warfare. “The thing to understand about it,” said one staffer, “is that it’s designed to have hearings about defense policy, draft the defense bill every year, and is sort of bipartisan.” But Hegseth is all but certain to cleave the group into partisan camps. His nomination has put an uncomfortable spotlight on Republican senators who might be persuaded to vote against his nomination, especially on Iowa’s Joni Ernst, a staunch Republican who is respected by her Democratic colleagues for her commitment to the committee’s work.

A survivor of sexual assault and domestic violence, Ernst has been an ally of Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand, another committee member, in the ongoing fight to address sexual assault and harassment in the military. She has worked with Elizabeth Warren, also on the committee, on a law that directs the Department of Defense to protect servicemembers from blast overpressure and traumatic brain injury. A combat veteran whose daughter is a West Point graduate, she has been a fierce advocate for women in the military. Ernst herself would have been a logical candidate for Trump’s secretary of Defense. “She probably would have gotten 90 votes,” one staffer to a senator on the committee speculated, noting that she “would have been probably far more effective at the job, since she’d actually know how to do it and people would actually listen to her.”…

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Meanwhile, Republicans associated with the wing of the party led by former Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a clique that wants an aggressive military front against Vladimir Putin and has defended the Pentagon’s purview, may be uncomfortable with Hegseth on ideological grounds and have butted heads with him in the past. In public remarks in his role as a media personality, Hegseth has called McConnell “foolish,” referred to Collins and Murkowski as “part of the captured class,” and even needled the Republican chair of Armed Services, Mississippi’s Roger Wicker, for wanting to increase the defense budget. But unless a big enough group of anti-Hegseth Republicans decide to hold hands and jump together, it’s unlikely that any one of them would stand as a lone pillar whose “no” vote would doom the nomination.

In the face of these dynamics, the Democrats, who are expected to vote against Hegseth, have their own tortured calculations to make. At least one Senate aide cautioned that Democrats on the committee would do well not to go after Hegseth simply as unqualified, given the enthusiasm of the American people for outsiders who could be brought in to clean up bloated and dysfunctional institutions, including the Pentagon. “There is a case for an outsider to fix a Pentagon that everyone understands can’t pass an audit,” the aide said. “I think most Americans are like, ‘How do we spend as much money as this?’” Democrats have defended institutions and norms against the Trumpian onslaught in a way that may have been counterproductive for a nation that is fed up with much about government and the elite class of powerful people who’ve been in charge of it for so long. “We cannot be the defenders of the status quo at the Pentagon,” said one Senate aide. “We can’t say, ‘You must give us the same person you’ve always given us.’ The problem is not that you don’t have this line on your résumé. The problem is that the thin lines you do have, you were bad at them.”…

“I just want to know if he can do the job,” said Senator Tammy Duckworth, a committee member and combat veteran who lost both her legs when her Black Hawk helicopter was shot down over Iraq in 2004. “Maybe he has hidden talents that he’s not telling people about. Maybe he’s led an organization larger than a 40-man platoon, which is I believe the largest unit that he’s ever been in charge of. Maybe he has successfully led an organization with a budget of around $800 billion. I don’t know. From what I’ve seen, he has led two partisan political groups, veterans’ organizations, both of which said that he mismanaged their finances, but maybe he’s run a Boeing or a Northrop Grumman and I just don’t know about it. Because from what I can tell, the manager of your local Applebee’s has more experience managing a bigger budget and more personnel than Pete Hegseth. And I don’t want that person in charge of the DOD.”…

Some committee members are already going hard: Mazie Hirono has said that she hasn’t even tried to meet with Hegseth, since she only wants to hear from Trump’s nominees in public, on the record. The week before the hearing, Warren released a 33-page letter to Hegseth that concludes, in part, “I am deeply concerned by the many ways in which your behavior and rhetoric indicates that you are unfit to lead the Department of Defense. One Republican operative described you as ‘perhaps one of the least qualified picks for Secretary of Defense that we’ve seen.’” And as Democrats planned to gather for a strategy session on Monday night, committee aides said they would not be surprised if senators who are not known for their combativeness, including [Mark] Kelly and the newly elected Elissa Slotkin, a former CIA analyst who did three tours in Iraq, get tough on Hegseth…

(There’s a lot more material in Traister’s post, and yes I too wish I could share a gift link. Presumably it will be repeated elsewhere, after the fact.)

🚨 Tomorrow, the Senate will consider Pete Hegseth’s nomination. He’s totally unqualified, out of step with American values, and dangerous. His outdated views on women and far-right extremism have no place in 2025.https://t.co/mMPw7AuPeQ

— Rep. Gwen Moore (@RepGwenMoore) January 13, 2025

It's also cheating to consider any one of them in isolation, like henchmen taking turns fighting the protagonist. Any one of these is some degree of disqualifying, but any two of them should be beyond the pale

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— Chatham Harrison is tending his garden (@chathamharrison.bsky.social) January 11, 2025 at 1:16 PM

pic.twitter.com/omgLhS26G9

— VoteVets (@votevets) January 13, 2025

Wannabe crusader, accused sexual predator, and rampant misogynist Pete Hegseth is also a Confederate apologist.https://t.co/99cKuZXvCy

— The New Republic (@newrepublic) January 13, 2025

A complete FBI background check for Pete Hegseth is good, I guess, but there's far more than enough public information on him to reject his nomination for Defense Secretary.
He's an advocate for war criminals and a white nationalist, which alone is enough, and that's still leaving awful things out.

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— Nicholas Grossman (@nicholasgrossman.bsky.social) January 12, 2025 at 10:48 AM

‘…“Damning is an understatement,” said Senator Richard Blumenthal, Democrat of Connecticut, referring to additional information about Mr. Hegseth that he has been made aware of that, in his estimation, ought to appear in the F.B.I. report.’ www.nytimes.com/2025/01/11/u…

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) January 12, 2025 at 7:25 AM

Grim Dawn Open Thread: Pete Hegseth Has A Senate Confirmation Hearing TodayPost + Comments (230)

War for Ukraine Day 1,055: A Brief Monday Night Update

by Adam L Silverman|  January 13, 20256:55 pm| 15 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Israel, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A quick housekeeping note: I had some dental work done to bring some very old repairs up to 2024 standards this afternoon. I’m very tired and expect discomfort as the anesthesia wears off. I’m just going to hit the highlights, have something to eat, and rack out. No real analysis tonight.

About 2/3rds of Ukraine is under air raid alert as of 6:30 PM EDT/1:30 AM local time in Ukraine. The alert maps don’t have any Russian fixed wing craft up as part of the alert, just drones. At least for now, this appears to be another drone swarm attack.

⚡️Explosions heard in Kyiv.

Several loud explosions were heard in central Kyiv late at night on Jan. 13, Kyiv Independent correspondents reported.

According to Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko, air defense units are repelling a drone attack against the city.

— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) January 13, 2025 at 4:51 PM

Kharkiv region is under the russian drone attack right now‼️

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 13, 2025 at 1:41 PM

“Target down.” A video of the downing of one of the “Shaheds” on January 13 has surfaced online.

The Air Force Command released footage of combat action against a Shahed-type attack drone on the eastern front.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 13, 2025 at 9:30 AM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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A Survey Has Been Launched in the Army Plus App – It Includes Five Candidates for the Position of Hetman Sahaidachnyi National Land Forces Academy Head – Address by the President

13 January 2025 – 21:32

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, I held a meeting of the Staff.

The key issue is the development of our drones and all forms of their usage. There were reports on production and contracts, from FPV drones to long-range models, as well as on solutions that will allow us to more effectively destroy the invader and protect the lives of our warriors. There are technological proposals we must implement, and I am grateful to all our military personnel, every company, every official, and every volunteer involved in this effort to continuously modernize the Ukrainian army in terms of technologies.

There was also a report on robotic systems, as well as on artillery – both our domestic artillery production and our global procurement, especially of ammunition.

It is important that Ukraine has good dynamics in the production of artillery, and our own capabilities to supply the army will only increase.

Today, we also discussed personnel matters with Oleksandr Syrskyi, Anatoliy Barhylevych, Mykhailo Drapatyi, and Pavlo Palisa, specifically the appointment of a new head of the Hetman Sahaidachnyi National Land Forces Academy.

It is one of the key military education institutions in Ukraine, and the Academy definitely deserves changes. What exactly those changes will be and who will implement them will be decided together with our Ukrainian military, with all our warriors who want changes.

To that end, a corresponding survey has been launched in the Army Plus app. It includes five candidates for the position of Academy head and an opportunity to suggest changes to the education process and relations within the Academy.

It is especially important for cadets and Academy graduates to share their experiences and ideas.

As of now, two thousand votes have already been cast – just a few hours since the survey was launched. Thank you to everyone participating. The Army Plus app is available to all our warriors.

I thank the team at the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine for developing such functionality.

I also had a conversation today with the President of France. It was a pretty long and detailed discussion. We discussed defense support – various forms, arms packages for Ukraine. We talked about investments in the procurement of shells for Ukraine. We also discussed the deployment of partner contingents and the training of our troops. And of course, the global situation. We are coordinating our positions. Thank you, France! Thank you, Emmanuel.

And one more thing.

Today, I signed documents concerning sanctions. One is a decree imposing sanctions on Russia’s financial sector, targeting 140 different entities. We will continue working with our partners to align our pressure. The second document is a draft law introducing criminal liability for attempts to circumvent sanctions. This is, in many ways, a continuation of international practices regarding sanctions enforcement. We all understand that the more pressure we exert on the aggressor, the closer we bring peace. Sanctions are one of the most effective tools for justly pressuring Russia and everyone associated with it or working for the war. This draft law will be submitted to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine.

Glory to Ukraine!

Slovakia:

🤣 Meanwhile, Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded to an invitation from Slovak Prime Minister Fico.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 13, 2025 at 12:34 PM

Germany:

Ukraine has received its first advanced wheeled howitzer, the RCH 155.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius handed over the first of 54 RCH 155 wheeled self-propelled artillery systems to Ukraine.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 13, 2025 at 7:52 AM

The US:

Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine/Russia on timetable for ending war: Let’s set it at 100 days and move all the way back and figure a way we can do this in the near term to make sure that the solution is solid, it’s sustainable, and that this war ends

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— Acyn (@acyn.bsky.social) January 12, 2025 at 6:25 PM

I have been the Senior Civilian Advisor to seven general officers/flag officers (GO/FO). The above is what happens when a GO/FO has no idea what they’re talking about, do not understand the actual strategic issues, and no one staffed (read prepped) them for their engagement.

Georgia:

Day 47 of large-scale nationwide protests; day 77 of protests overall. We have two demands:
1. New, free and fair elections;
2. The release of the unlawfully detained.
#GeorgiaProtests #terrorinGeorgia #NewElectionsforGeorgia

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 13, 2025 at 12:41 PM

@netgazeti.org has released a video and stated that their director, Mzia Amaglobeli, was insulted during her detention by the head of Batumi police, Irakli Dgebuadze. In the video, his words can be heard: “With criminal code… I’ll arrest her with criminal code and I’ll f***”

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 13, 2025 at 8:10 AM

🟥 The video shows #Batumi Police Chief Irakli Dgebuadze cursing & threatening Mzia Amaghlobeli, the founder and CEO of Netgazeti & Batumelebi, after her arrest.

⭕️ Dgebuadze personally participated in the arrest.
⭕️ Amaglobeli is accused of attacking Dgebuadze – a Police Officer.
#TerrorInGeorgia

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) January 13, 2025 at 9:04 AM

Amaglobeli has been detained since the night of Jan 11-12. Initially arrested for putting up a poster, she was briefly released before being rearrested. This video followed her second arrest. She is now accused of “attacking a police officer,” punishable by 4 to 7 years in prison

— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) January 13, 2025 at 11:15 AM

🟥 January 13 – A protest rally is taking place near the Batumi City Court, where cases of participants detained during the January 11 #GeorgiaProtests are being heard.

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) January 13, 2025 at 12:10 PM

“Freedom for Mzia Amaghlobeli!” – Representatives of the media and civil society are holding a protest rally in the Batumi, demanding the release of the head of independent media outlet @netgazeti.org. Amaghlobeli is facing imprisonment for 4 to 7 years.

#TerrorinGeorgia

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 13, 2025 at 11:50 AM

Friends, it is important to support @netgazeti.org agency and battle the regime narrative that the director, Mzia Amaghlobeli, is to blame for slapping a policeman. International outlook on Batumelebi must be that of unconditional support as a regime-oppressed media & director.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 13, 2025 at 4:33 PM

2/5
After Mzia left the police administrative building, where she had been arrested on an administrative charge for putting up a poster, she stopped some distance from the gate of the building with her relatives.

— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) January 13, 2025 at 3:42 PM

3/5
We were there with our family members, who were even cheerful due to her release. The situation was entirely calm, and the demonstration was naturally coming to an end. Suddenly, the gate opened, and Dgebuadze rushed out with several police officers.

— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) January 13, 2025 at 3:42 PM

4/5
They began detaining our relatives without any justification, triggering chaos and confusion. The officers were cursing and threatening us during the incident. Mzia was dragged away, even losing a shoe in the process.

— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) January 13, 2025 at 3:42 PM

5/5
In panic caused by the police, people could not understand why they were being beaten or detained. Mzia’s reaction was not an attack on a police officer surrounded by about 20 other officers; it was a response to the violence, humiliation, & threats perpetrated by the police”.

— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) January 13, 2025 at 3:42 PM

The regime detains people for longer periods now. The standard would be 2 days pre-trial. The recent Batumi detainees are sentenced to 5 days. The standard administrative offense article 173, “disobedience,” implies up to 15 days detention. #terrorinGeorgia #GeorgiaProtests

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 13, 2025 at 5:03 PM

Back to Ukraine.

The Kursk cross border offensive:

“The agency assessed that the North Koreans are struggling to adapt to drones and other elements of modern warfare. They are further disadvantaged by the crude tactics of their Russian commanders” apnews.com/article/nort…

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) January 13, 2025 at 5:42 AM

From the AP:

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — South Korea’s spy agency told lawmakers on Monday that two North Korean soldiers who were captured by Ukrainian forces while fighting alongside Russian forces in Russia’s Kursk border region haven’t expressed a desire to seek asylum in South Korea.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he’s willing to hand over the soldiers to North Korea if the country’s authoritarian leader, Kim Jong Un, arranges for an exchange with Ukrainian prisoners of war in Russia. Zelenskyy said one of the North Korean soldiers wishes to stay in Ukraine while the other wants to return to his country, which was consistent with interview videos released by his government. “If Kim Jong Un even remembers these citizens of his and is capable of organizing an exchange for our warriors being held in Russia, we are ready to transfer such soldiers. Undoubtedly there will be more POWs from North Korea,” Zelenskyy said in an address late Sunday. He said in a separate posting on the social media platform X that “there may be other options” for North Korean prisoners who don’t wish to go back.

In a closed-door briefing at South Korea’s National Assembly, the National Intelligence Service confirmed its participation in the questioning of the North Korean soldiers by Ukrainian authorities. The agency said the soldiers haven’t expressed a request to resettle in South Korea, according to two lawmakers who attended the meeting.

The agency said it was willing to discuss the matter with Ukrainian authorities if the soldiers eventually do ask to go to South Korea. About 34,000 North Koreans have defected to capitalist rival South Korea to avoid economic hardship and political suppression at home, mostly since the late 1990s.

Koo Byoungsam, spokesperson of South Korea’s Unification Ministry, which handles inter-Korean affairs, said facilitating the asylum of the North Korean soldiers would require “legal reviews, including on international law, and consultations with related nations.”

“There’s nothing we can say at the current stage,” Koo said.

Seoul’s spy agency believes that about 300 North Korean soldiers have died and another 2,700 have been injured while fighting against Ukrainian forces, in what represents North Korea’s first involvement in large-scale conflict since the 1950-53 Korean War.

The agency assessed that the North Koreans are struggling to adapt to drones and other elements of modern warfare. They are further disadvantaged by the crude tactics of their Russian commanders, who have thrown them in assault campaigns without providing rear-fire support, according to Lee Seong Kweun, a lawmaker who attended the agency’s briefing.

The agency said memos found on dead North Korean soldiers indicated that they had been ordered to commit suicide before being captured, according to Lee. The agency said one North Korean soldier, facing the threat of being captured by Ukrainian forces, shouted “General Kim Jong Un” and tried to detonate a hand grenade before he was shot and killed.

Moon Seong Mook, a retired South Korean brigadier general, said the high death toll for North Korean soldiers was predictable, as they would not have been sufficiently prepared for an unfamiliar mission in the terrain of the Kursk region, which is vastly different from North Korea’s mountainous landscape.

Another disadvantage for the North Koreans is that they are not conducting independent operations but are being thrust into combat under Russian commanders, possibly struggling with unfamiliar tactics and communication issues due to language barriers, said Moon, who has taken part in numerous military talks with North Korea. The North Korean forces could be operating special surveillance teams to arrest or execute attempted deserters, he said.

“The current battlefield environment, combined with drones and other technologies, have created situations North Korean soldiers have never encountered before,” Moon said. “They are also being deployed in large numbers in wide-open fields, where there is no place to hide, in continuous battles to retake the area, and that seems to be where the casualties are coming from.”

Much more at the link!

Lyptsy, Kharkiv Oblast:

Lyptsy, Kharkiv region. Another town dying under russian bombs.

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 13, 2025 at 1:24 PM

Bryansk, Russia:

/1.Ballistic missiles strike is reported in Bryansk, Russia. Presumably ATACMS were used.

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 13, 2025 at 2:07 PM

/2. Preliminary, the Bryansk Chemical Plant named after the 50th Anniversary of the USSR was attacked.

This is a military plant which among other things is a known location for manufacture of ammunition and overhaul of Russian MLRS systems, such as: Uragan, Grad, Tornado-G.

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 13, 2025 at 2:24 PM

/3. Bryansk Chemical Plant burning after missile strikes.

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 13, 2025 at 2:33 PM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent materials.

🦁🇺🇦 Odesa Zoo showed a day in the life of its pets – white lions.
These are extremely rare animals listed in the Red Book. There are only about 300 of these predators in the world, and several of them are “Odessans” 🥰

[image or embed]

— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) January 12, 2025 at 9:36 AM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,055: A Brief Monday Night UpdatePost + Comments (15)

Save the Date – Zoom on Saturday Jan 25 – Where Do We Go From Here?

by WaterGirl|  January 13, 20253:55 pm| 26 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Please join us for a zoom with Brendan Walsh, executive director of Worker Power, one of the boots on the ground groups we have supported .

We had a tough loss in November, and it’s been with us every day since then.  Where do we go from here?

Please join us hear about it, and talk about it!

This will be a free-ranging conversation with labor organizer and GOTV expert Brendan Walsh, whose organization, Worker Power, we supported in the last two election cycles.

JANUARY 25, at 3:30 Eastern Time
RSVP in the comments and send email so I can reply with the zoom link.

Like all of us, despite some brights spots and victories in the areas they organized, Brendan was devastated and disheartened by the election results.   But now that we’ve licked our wounds (quite thoroughly), it’s time to look ahead and get our feet back under us!  Brendan is not giving up.  Worker Power is not giving up.  I am not giving up.  There’s too much at stake to give up.

It’s been a long 10 weeks – and we’re going to talk about the future.

*The future pretty much starts now, by the way.  In case you’re wondering.

Worker Power engaged extensively with Arizona voters, and gained a lot of insight into what motivated (or demotivated) them.  So Brendan will talk a little bit – maybe for 5 or 10 minutes – about what they’ve learned about turning out the working class vote and what they’re looking at going forward.

Then, we’ll open it up to questions and comments and what we hope will be a thoughtful discussion.

So if you have any questions or discussion topics ahead of time, let us know in the comments.

This will be the first of several zooms we’ll be having with our organizations over the next few weeks. Looking forward to hearing from all our partners!

They are all such good people.  Come meet them!

Save the Date – Zoom on Saturday Jan 25 – Where Do We Go From Here?Post + Comments (26)

Find the Hook, The Way In

by @heymistermix.com|  January 13, 20253:23 pm| 81 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

It's Ok to Lead 1

This is a Mexican fireman (“Bombero”) with a kitten – supposedly taken in LA, but it’s too good to check (via).

It's Ok to Lead 2

This is real — from Claudia Sheinbaum’s insta, a photo of Mexican aid leaving for LA.

Wouldn’t it be great if, while noting that Mexico stepped up to help, some Democratic politician said that the Mexican workers who will rebuild LA deserve a fair, humane work visa?  (If you know of one, please leave it in the comments.)

Here’s Erin Reed live-skeeting the committee hearing and floor vote in the Montana legislature over an anti-trans bathroom bill that would affect two legislators, Erin’s spouse Zooey Zephyr and non-binary legislator SJ Howell.

Wouldn’t it be great if some Democrats other than Maxwell Frost, AOC and other progressives said something like this:

Mace is a “huge attention getter, so this is part of her attention-getting fetish,” said Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.), a newly elected co-chair of the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee.

  • Frost added: “I just don’t understand why bathrooms are top of mind for her, why she’s thinking about where future members are going to piss and shit.”

I’m not going to give up on immigration, or trans rights.  Every issue has a hook, a handle, a way in.  One way in for immigration is that immigrants do all the work that we don’t want to do, so how about we stop pretending that we can’t see what’s obvious to anyone who lives in an area with lots of immigrant labor?  The way in for trans rights is that Republicans who want to inspect genitals of others before they’re allowed to piss and shit are fucking weird and awful human beings.  I’m sure there are other ways in — we just need to find them.

Find the Hook, The Way InPost + Comments (81)

The Maestro Says Its Mozart, But it Sounds Like Bubblegum

by @heymistermix.com|  January 13, 20251:17 pm| 101 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

This Semafor piece is making the rounds:

Washington Post subscribers quit the paper en masse following owner Jeff Bezos’ decision to withhold its endorsement of outgoing Vice President Kamala Harris. But the Post’s audience problems extend beyond angry former subscribers.

Over the last four years, web traffic has cratered. According to internal data shared with Semafor in recent weeks, the Post’s daily traffic last year reached a nadir of just a quarter of what it was at its peak in January 2021. That month, the Post had around 22.5 million daily active users. But by the middle of 2024, its daily users hovered around 2.5-3 million daily users.

Last year, Washington City Paper noted that the Post had stopped publicly disclosing its traffic numbers in press releases, after a 60% decline in monthly traffic. On Friday, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Post’s revenue fell from $190 million in 2023 to $174 million last year.

Legacy or mainstream media has been circling the drain for a while, but an order of magnitude drop in users is way more than what I would have expected.

The only time I watch cable TV is at the gym, and today, like last Friday, I watched CNN and Fox side-by-side.  The Fox News coverage of the LA fires is notably better, by the standards of cable news.  They have reporters on the ground, they’re able to cover the whole press conference, and they’re not breaking to commercial every couple of minutes.  Both Friday and today, CNN did not have a correspondent on the ground.  The footage they showed was clearly sent in from viewers, and then they have very long interviews with people affected by the fire.  On Friday, it was James Woods (ick), and he yammered for at least 15 minutes straight.  Today it was a couple who had lost their house.  Sad, but this story is still evolving, and there’s more to it that hearing from people who were burned out.

The advent of decent quality video from a laptop over the Internet is a huge benefit for cable news, but there’s no substitute for a correspondent or two on the scene for a disaster of this magnitude.  Maybe I’m just catching CNN at a bad time, but 9:30 AM Mountain / 11:30 AM Eastern is pretty prime cable TV time for their diabetes and Ensure ads..  I’m guessing that the next “revelation” from Semafor will be that CNN’s viewership and earnings are in the toilet, just like the Post, because, setting aside ideology, Fox just has a better news product.

The Maestro Says Its Mozart, But it Sounds Like BubblegumPost + Comments (101)

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