We Are Preparing Agreements That Will Take Place This August – Address by the President

1 August 2024 – 19:27

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

A few things for today.

Today, I held a meeting with Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on the recovery. In particular, based on the results of my trip to Kharkiv, Poltava region, Volyn and Rivne and the meetings I held. This concerns the completion of facilities, key recovery priorities, and people capable of ensuring the full implementation of state tasks. At the governmental level, we are preparing personnel decisions and additional decisions so that this fall more Ukrainian children will be able to study in schools not online, but normally – so that school life can be as normal as it is possible now, in times of war.

Second. Our relations with partners – we are preparing agreements and arrangements that will take place this August. These include security agreements – negotiations will begin tomorrow with another European country. We are also preparing the visits of leaders to Ukraine and, accordingly, the content of our negotiations and the long-term philosophy of our agreements. It is extremely important to ensure resilience for our state for years to come, which will guarantee greater capabilities for us now, this year, given the existing challenges and threats. Of course, the key task is to support both the Defense Forces and the state budget, as well as to ensure Ukraine’s social resilience. I am grateful to everyone in the world who helps us. And of course, I am grateful to our warriors – to all the soldiers, sergeants, and officers on the frontline who defend our state, protect our positions, care for neighboring units, and assist when needed. The Armed Forces, the National Guard, the National Police, the border guards, the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, the Security Service of Ukraine, and all other elements of our defense – I thank each and every one whose dedication is the strength of our entire state. Today, I want to especially recognize the units of the National Guard of Ukraine, particularly the 15th brigade of the National Guard, fighting in the south of Ukraine. They have achieved excellent results in destroying enemy equipment – nearly 30 Russian artillery systems destroyed in just one month, along with much other equipment. Warriors, thank you for this – thank you to the entire brigade! I would like to specifically acknowledge the soldiers – Oleksandr Khalimon, Ruslan Salin, Oleksandr Halaida, and Oleksandr Kukhar; junior sergeants – Denys Florenko, Mykola Boyko, and Andriy Kmet; Sergeant Pavlo Zavadskyi; and platoon commanders – Lieutenant Yevhen Vitushko and Illia Chornenkyi. Well done! The 1st presidential brigade of the National Guard: Soldier Yevheniy Martynenko and Sergeant Serhiy Kolisnichenko, as well as battalion commanders Lieutenant Colonels Ruslan Bayda, Volodymyr Zhdanov, and Kostiantyn Vakhramieyev. Thank you! The Omega Special Purpose Center, specifically the 4th separate detachment of the Center, is effective as usual. Thank you! And also the 5th Slobozhanska brigade of the National Guard – thank you! In the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it is worth highlighting this week the 25th separate airborne brigade and the 68th separate jaeger brigade fighting now in the most challenging Pokrovsk direction. Kharkiv direction – the 57th separate motorized infantry brigade and the 36th separate marine brigade. Thank you! Kupyansk direction – the 14th separate mechanized brigade. Well done! In the Kurakhove direction, our paratroopers from the “Seventy-ninth” deserve our unwavering gratitude. In the Toretsk direction – the 28th separate mechanized brigade. Thank you! Thank you to everyone who helps our defense, works for Ukraine, and does everything to ensure the world helps us liberate Ukraine from the occupier.

Glory to Ukraine!

President Zelenskyy sat for an interview/press conference with French reporters. Ukrainska Pravda has some of the details:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that after the Russians’ failed assault on Kharkiv in early summer, they changed their main objective, and now their priority is capturing Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast.

Source: Zelenskyy’s interview with French journalists

Quote: “The entire eastern front is challenging. The main objective today, after their failure to capture Kharkiv, which we understand is no longer feasible, has shifted. Their primary focus is no longer the entire east, though Sloviansk is not excluded. However, I would say that today Pokrovsk is their priority. The Pokrovsk front and the city of Pokrovsk are their main targets.

Of course, there is also Kostiantynivka, and yes, they are targeting Toretsk and have plans for Sloviansk, but these are just plans. The largest concentration of personnel, weapons, and all their available resources are now focused on the Pokrovsk front.”

Background: The Pokrovsk front is constantly mentioned in the General Staff reports as the area where the Russians are carrying out the most attacks.

Here’s the full video with English subtitles:

Serhii Kulish won Ukraine’s first silver medal at the Olympic Games 2024 in Paris!
He won in the final of rifle shooting from three positions at a distance of 50 meters. His result is 461.3 points.
Serhii is a service member of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Congratulations to… pic.twitter.com/djJvw6mz7W

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 1, 2024

Serhii Kulish won Ukraine’s first silver medal at the Olympic Games 2024 in Paris!
He won in the final of rifle shooting from three positions at a distance of 50 meters. His result is 461.3 points.
Serhii is a service member of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Congratulations to 🇺🇦 winner!

The big news today was the prisoner swap.

Paul Whelan, Evan Gershkovich, Alsu Kurmasheva, and Vladimir Kara-Murza are coming home. pic.twitter.com/wWGA83Ss8A

— President Biden (@POTUS) August 1, 2024

WATCH LIVE: Biden speaks on U.S.- Russia prisoner swap freeing WSJ journalist Gershkovich and others
https://t.co/cKTt6gLO4p

— PBS News (@NewsHour) August 1, 2024

President Biden leads singing of ‘Happy Birthday’ for Miriam, turning 13 tomorrow. She’s the daughter of RFE/RL journalist Alsu Kurmasheva.
https://t.co/JhjJFObYpw

— Steve Herman (@W7VOA) August 1, 2024

Congratulations!

Everyone thanks to whom this has happened deserves a medal.

And now, we need to acknowledge that all Kremlin assassins and spies know it for sure that, no matter what, Putin will get them out of prison sooner or later.

Putin only needs to get enough hostages. pic.twitter.com/yadAAYyDq3

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 1, 2024

Patel: Of course, in the case of Mark Fogel, we’ve spoken about this before, we have called for mark’s humanitarian release, and we will continue to engage and work through our team in Moscow and continue to have those conversations and of course, look, there continue to be…

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) August 1, 2024

1/ State spox Vedant Patel message to Americans still being held around world: So our message is pretty simple and it is that while today is a good day, that the work doesn’t stop. And to the American citizens who are continued to be wrongfully detained or held hostage around the world, let me just be very clear that this government, this administration, is not going to stop working. We’re going to continue to work tirelessly around the clock to do everything we can to make sure that they, like Paul, like Evan, like Alsu, like Vladimir they can have a date where they can be reunited with their loved ones as well.

2/ Patel: Of course, in the case of Mark Fogel, we’ve spoken about this before, we have called for mark’s humanitarian release, and we will continue to engage and work through our team in Moscow and continue to have those conversations and of course, look, there continue to be American citizens detained in legal systems around the world, not of course, just in Russia.

The current prisoner exchange seems to mark the end, rather than the beginning, of a particular phase in which, despite the acute geopolitical conflict, Russia on one side and the U.S. and Germany on the other reached an agreement, anticipating worsening conditions. It is…

— Tatiana Stanovaya (@Stanovaya) August 1, 2024

The current prisoner exchange seems to mark the end, rather than the beginning, of a particular phase in which, despite the acute geopolitical conflict, Russia on one side and the U.S. and Germany on the other reached an agreement, anticipating worsening conditions. It is uncertain what to expect from the political changes and dynamics in the U.S. after the presidential election. In the weeks following the election, work that has been ongoing for almost two years could be undermined. For #Biden, this exchange represents a clear political achievement that will benefit the Democrats in the election. Meanwhile, #Putin has successfully secured #Krasikov’s return. For Berlin, Krasikov is a murderer who acted in cold blood within a sovereign state on behalf of a foreign secret service; for Putin, he is a patriot and a hero whose return was a matter of principle. The central aspect of the deal is the exchange of Krasikov for Evan #Gershkovich, who has become Moscow’s primary hostage and asset. Others are included in the exchange as part of the negotiation surrounding the deal.

Another factor influencing the situation was #Navalny’s death, which significantly increased the humanitarian significance of the potential swap. However, for Putin, the release of political prisoners is an ambiguous move: domestic hardliners view it as an excessive concession and an “investment” in the opposition abroad.

Finally, while Russian authorities may cautiously view the exchange as a sign of the West’s willingness to make pragmatic deals, the West sees it as confirmation of the danger posed by a Russia that takes hostages, imprisons dissenters, and commits killings in prisons. There is no indication that the current exchange will facilitate peace talks concerning Ukraine. Instead, it reflects the current situation, where each side learns to live with mutual intransigence.

I don’t think Stanovaya is correct this time. She’s ignoring all of the Ukrainians that Putin and his forces have seized and imprisoned.

Approximately 400 Ukrainian women, military and civilians are in russian captivity.
Just for you to know.
Some of them since 2014-2015….
They are treated the same way russia treats others, torture, mocking, starvation, inhumane conditions.
Remember them pic.twitter.com/AmxwzrHW2V

— Mariia Kramarenko (@KramarenkoMari3) August 1, 2024

I don’t know why no one organizing this prisoner swap seemed to consider how it would look if not a single Ukrainian was released but people who will kill Ukrainians were swapped for Russian political prisoners

— ліна 🌻🇺🇦 (@castletongreene) August 1, 2024

I’m genuinely happy for Paul Whelan’s release from russian captivity.

However, it seems the rest of those freed are russians freed from russia. Meanwhile, no one is taking action to free people like Maksym Butkevych or Crimean Tatars still in captivity. Ukrainian civilians,… https://t.co/PVxongyTwv

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) August 1, 2024

I’m genuinely happy for Paul Whelan’s release from russian captivity.

However, it seems the rest of those freed are russians freed from russia. Meanwhile, no one is taking action to free people like Maksym Butkevych or Crimean Tatars still in captivity. Ukrainian civilians, including women and thousands of stolen children, who continue to suffer mistreatment and forced re-education every day.

No one deserves to endure a slow death in russian prison for a crime they didn’t commit, but it feels particularly unjust that russians are prioritized over others

But even within the prisoner exchange there was news.

And yeah, the largest prisoner swap between Russia and the West effectively confirms that Putin killed Navalny to never ever set him free and thus exclude him from all negotiations with the West forever.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 1, 2024

I mean, Putin is such an honest and good-faith party in negotiations, let’s also trust him in the matters of peace with Ukraine, why.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 1, 2024

Kyiv:

On the night of July 31, nearly 11,500 people took refuge in Kyiv subway stations during an air raid that lasted more than seven hours. pic.twitter.com/4qkNgyK2O9

— Roman Sheremeta 🇺🇦 (@rshereme) August 1, 2024

Kharkiv:

Just one example of how Russia uses the church for subversive activities: GRU agent/priest in a Moscow Patriarchate church in Kharkiv arrested for collecting and giving away railway logistics information pic.twitter.com/hGF138DMAJ

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) August 1, 2024

 

 

Astrakhan Oblast, Russia:

Well look at that. Andriy Derkach, the Ukrainian ex-MP who helped Trump and Giuliani pressure Ukraine to smear Biden, and was sanctioned by the US for being “an active Russian agent” working to interfere with the 2020 election — all of which which he denied being/doing — has…

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) August 1, 2024

Well look at that. Andriy Derkach, the Ukrainian ex-MP who helped Trump and Giuliani pressure Ukraine to smear Biden, and was sanctioned by the US for being “an active Russian agent” working to interfere with the 2020 election — all of which which he denied being/doing — has surfaced in Russia with Russian citizenship and is now seeking political office. 💁🏻‍♂️ https://pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2024/07/31/7468329/

Omsk, Russia:

Really beautiful evening in russian Omsk😍 https://t.co/rpwimYl8Vl pic.twitter.com/WafrOZFUzr

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) August 1, 2024

/2. Location from where the video of fire on Omsk oil refinery is recorded: (55.0689366, 73.2182349)

The cause of the fire is unknown. Drone attacks were not reported. Plus Omsk is quite far away from the front line ~2500km. pic.twitter.com/FdlgHw1G1u

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 1, 2024

One final item. Last night YY-Sima_Qian asked:

What is your thought on the Israeli actions of the past 48 hrs? I don’t think anyone is mourning the deaths of Haniyeh or Shukr, who have plenty of blood on their hands. However, to assassinate the top military commander of Hezbollah in Beirut, & the head of the Hamas’ political branch (w/ whom Israel has ostensibly been closing to a deal to free the remaining hostages) in Tehran, seem destined to spiral into a general regional war of much higher intensity. There is already a regional low to mid-intensity war involving Israel, the US, Hezbollah, the Houthis, & Shi’ite militia in Iraq & Syria. Sure serves Bibi’s selfish political interests, though.

Even if Iran refrains from escalating to a high intensity clash w/ Israel at this moment, it could certainly plot payback years down the line. The recent reporting that Iran is plotting to assassinate Trump & former officials of the 1st Trump administration, read to me as attempts at delayed retribution for the assassination of Suleimani.

My take has not changed from my initial reply to a comment in Tuesday night’s update: the ceasefire is now dead. Which has now been confirmed through the reporting of Israeli journalists;

💥Correction: On Day 300 of the hostages’ captivity in Gaza, Hamas tells mediators it has “indefinitely frozen negotiations” with Israel because of the Haniyeh assassination, according to @JackyHugi report. https://t.co/IVBEy0VGhe

— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي (@NTarnopolsky) August 1, 2024

I think I wrote back in one of the updates back in late October or November on the Israeli-Hamas war, that the vast majority of the hostages would never come home alive because it wasn’t in Bibi’s interest or those of the extremists in his coalition for them to be brought home alive.

Iran is clearly going to retaliate, but what we don’t know is how they’ll calibrate the retaliation. The problem is that just as Professor Clark recounts in his history of 1914, The Sleepwalkers, every actor thinks they are acting rationally to maximize their interests within their context, communicating their intentions clearly, that those communications are being accurately received and understood by every other actor, and that, with the exception of the extremists, no one actually wants a war or higher intensity war. Hence Clark’s thesis that the actors in 1914 sleepwalked into World War I. History may not repeat, but it rhymes. Right now Bibi, the extremists he’s empowered, the Iranians, Hezbullah, Sinwar, the Houthis, etc are all sleepwalking their way into a much higher intensity war. I do not know how you get any of them to wake up before they get to their destination.

Finally, as for Iranian plotting to assassinate former Trump officials, I haven’t seen that reporting so have no idea.

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!