The cost:

Andrii Mazanovych, Ukrainian junior sergeant, commander of the second squad of the 2nd Rifle Company, died defending Ukraine.

Before the full-scale invasion, Andrii was a master of sports and a champion of Ukraine and Europe in powerlifting.

Eternal memory and eternal glory to… pic.twitter.com/uW4vXaGfx8

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 20, 2024

The reason:

This is what we’re fighting for. pic.twitter.com/nKXkBUhg1y

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 20, 2024

Trump, or his caddy, finally posted a statement about yesterday’s call between President Zelenskyy and Trump. We covered what President Zelenskyy said yesterday. Here it is again:

I spoke with @realDonaldTrump to congratulate him on the Republican nomination and condemn the shocking assassination attempt in Pennsylvania. I wished him strength and absolute safety in the future.

I noted the vital bipartisan and bicameral American support for protecting our…

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) July 19, 2024

I spoke with @realDonaldTrump to congratulate him on the Republican nomination and condemn the shocking assassination attempt in Pennsylvania. I wished him strength and absolute safety in the future.

I noted the vital bipartisan and bicameral American support for protecting our nation’s freedom and independence.

Ukraine will always be grateful to the United States for its help in strengthening our ability to resist Russian terror. Russian attacks on our cities and villages continue every day.

We agreed with President Trump to discuss at a personal meeting what steps can make peace fair and truly lasting.

Pay attention to and keep in mind that last sentence when you read Trump’s version of the call:

Trump says he had a call with Zelensky. He said this one was “very good” as opposed to the “perfect” one they had in 2019 that led to his impeachment in the House. Trump said: “I appreciate President Zelenskyy for reaching out because I, as your next President of the United… pic.twitter.com/ZpMC3yBivn

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) July 19, 2024

You’ll notice no mention of even the discussion a future meeting. There is, however, a megalomaniacal statement about bringing peace to the world.

Here are Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsberger’s take aways from the NATO summit two weeks ago:

My thoughts on my way back to Lithuania after the NATO Summit.🧵

The event was well organised and sent a strong message to the people of America about the respect the USA is attracting from its allies and partners.🧵 

Politically the expectations for deliverables from the Summit were low. It was clear a couple of months ago how the declaration would look. If the goal was to have a smooth event, that was achieved. What didn’t happen was any major strategic breakthrough. 

Putin used this summit to declare that his goals, methods and capabilities are unchanged – by attacking a number of extremely sensitive civilian targets in Ukraine. His timing shows he has a feeling of total impunity, that nothing can or will happen in response. 

Ukraine is still left in a grey area of insecurity. Irreversible bridges are important but not as important as actual protection. Sooner, not later, there has to be a discussion about solid and sturdy guarantees for Ukraine if we want to secure Europe’s future. 

The biggest missed opportunity was the decision not to allow deeper strikes against military targets in Russia. This would have been a major win not just for Ukraine, not just for the US, but for the whole alliance. It didn’t require logistics or money, just a political decision. 

The most significant decision for Europe is the acknowledgment that Russia is stepping up its irregular warfare and a reminder that even irregular attacks could trigger Article 5. This creates some strategic ambiguity to replace the clarity of passivity. 

It feels like we are still in denial that this war against Ukraine is a global strategic shift requiring some hard strategic decisions in response, despite Putin trying very hard to convince us. 

About those hybrid Russian threats:

Spiegel says the reported assassination attempt against Armin Papperger was further along than thought. “agents had already entered the EU”. I asked Scholz’s foreign policy advisor about it this week & he said allies were consulting on how to respond to Russian “hybrid” activity. https://t.co/iZCqAKPNhD

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) July 19, 2024

Estonia:

I wanted to share with you some thoughts by Jonatan Vseviov, Secretary General of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Estonia, that he voiced at Aspen Security Forum. I’ve added English subtitles for convenience.

Two points from @vseviov‘s thoughts:

◾️Putin “has to derail us at… pic.twitter.com/KTuy930RHb

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 20, 2024

I wanted to share with you some thoughts by Jonatan Vseviov, Secretary General of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Estonia, that he voiced at Aspen Security Forum. I’ve added English subtitles for convenience.

Two points from @vseviov ‘s thoughts:

◾️Putin “has to derail us at all costs this year. The two tools that he uses against us – fear and false hope.”

◾️ “He’s not interested in peace. He’s interested in derailing our policy. The way it would work, similar to Minsk 3 or Minsk 2 on steroids or the getting the chemical weapons out of Syria case, where he creates a diplomatic process that ties us down, derails all alternative politics or policies and eventually doesn’t fulfill any of the promises he gives.”

I’ve written it before and, unfortunately, I’m sure I’m going to (have to) write it again: Putin is constantly probing for mush in the EU, in the US, and in NATO. And he constantly finds it instead of steel. As a result he keeps doing what he’s doing because the states, alliances, and leaders that could give provide him with real consequences that would lead to a change in behavior consistently fail to do so.

The leaders in the Baltic states, Poland, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Romania, and Moldova are the most clear eyed regarding the threat and what needs to be done. Unfortunately, they cannot get the larger and more powerful states, as well as the leaders of those states, to do what needs to be done.

Here’s a detailed analysis of Russian military equipment. The author, Richard Vereker, is a contributor to the Tracking Russia’s losses website:

1) The Economist magazine has published an article about Russia running low on military equipment, To my surprise they mention me as an open-source analysis. So I thought I would do a thread about it.

Russia’s vast stocks of Soviet-era weaponry are running outIt may have to scale back its offensive in Ukrainehttps://www.economist.com/europe/2024/07/16/russias-vast-stocks-of-soviet-era-weaponry-are-running-out?utm_medium=social-media.content.np&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=editorial-social&utm_content=discovery.content

2) The main thrust of the article is that Russian stocks of stored equipment are deep, but not bottomless. And I would agree with that sentiment. I will go further and say that some of the best equipment is near the end of stored equipment. 

3) I should say that I mostly look at data that others have gathered, especially when it comes to assessing Russian stored equipment. @Jonpy99 @HighMarsed @CovertCabal are all practically prolific and worth following. 

@Jonpy99 @HighMarsed @CovertCabal 4) First I am going to look at IFV/APC and here I can recommend a ‘Google sheet’ made available by @Jonpy99 who has done the counting. It shows that overall Russia has removed more (6756) than it has left in working condition (5781)

Stored equipment by @jonpy99, @highmarsed, @waffentraeger, @CovertCabal, @Vishun_military, @Ath3neN0ctu4https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FnfGcdqah5Et_6wElhiFfoDxEzxczh7AP2ovjEFV010/edit?gid=1737498744#gid=1737498744

5) Being a bit over halfway may not seem that good. But if you look at the numbers, some equipment is almost all gone, MT-LBs in particular. These have been heavily used, on the front line. Equipment like BRDM-2 and BTR-60 & 70s still have lost left, but little of this old stuff is used on the front line.

6) The most important of the IFV/APCs are the BMPs. which you will see sit in the middle of the pack when it comes to how much has been taken from storage. But if we look at what @Jonpy99 has counted in more detail, we see of the remaining 1382 useable BMPs, most, (about 893) are the oldest BMP-1 and (about 650) are specialist artillery support vehicles. It is hard to be totally confident with satellite photos but perhaps only a few doses are BMP-2s or later.

7) This time I’m using data from @WarSpotting and I’ve created a chart of the % of each type of BMP lost each month. The BMP-3 is still in production about 140 made last year. the BMP-2s have been the most numerous, at least if you take losses as a proxy for use. Don’t worry too much about July 2024, we don’t have a full month’s worth of data, but for almost a year the share of BMP-2s has been increasing, perhaps that’s because they have been prioritising getting them out of storage, if they are now gone, that matters. It’s also possible that Russia has been importing BMP-2s but I won’t go down that rabbit hole now.

@Jonpy99 @HighMarsed @CovertCabal @WarSpotting 8) Next, I will look at tanks. @CovertCabal produced a youtube video recently based on a hout by him and @HighMarsed I recommend this. 

9) That couting effort produced these numbers. Showing that over half the total remains. but most of the best tanks are gone. All of the T-90s 3/4 of the T-80s and over half of the modernist T-72s. They used a slightly different way to grade the condition of the tanks, but again most of the tanks in decent condition have gone and most that remain are poor or worse.

10) Now we will come to artillery. This table is 6 months old but shows what has been taken. 5525 towed guns and 1489 SPGs. so a lot more towed. overall it’s less than half but look at the pattern some types have hardly been touched M-46 130mm, while others like the 2A36 its over 3/4 gone. It’s also harder to asses the conditions of guns from satellite photos.

In the Economist article, it quotes my theory that perhaps some of the Twed guns have been removed to move their barrels to working SPGs. which I say based on the loss patterns, here again from @WarSpotting showing many more SPG losses than Twoed Guns. This is only a theory I, its possible that SPGs are easier to spot, hit, and photograph because they are generally bigger than towed guns. the visually confirmed losses may not match the proportions on the battlefield. Throughout the war, the losses of Artilly reported by the AFU have been much higher than the confirmed losses. and the difference is much more stark than with Tanks and IFVs. But as the proportions of losses are not changing much, it would suggest that barrel swapping might be happening, at least with some types.

12) The article also mentioned ammunition, and I think this is most likely the overall limiting factor on Artillery, not Barrels. And I partly say that looking at the loss patterns again. Russia brought some calibers back into service like the 240mm 2S4 and the 152mm Gianstant, when they still had a lot of standard 152mm guns left. I think this was to use up that ammunition, and I think there recent decline is indicative of that ammunition now coming to an end.

13) Russia started with about 14-18 million artillery shells in storage. they were firing constantly over 20,000 a day and at times 60,000 a day, which uses up a lot. Especially when you add maybe a million shells lost in ammunition explosions. The article states Russia can now make about 2 million a year, which would be 5,500 a day, close to the 5,000 Russian fires on a typical day. 

@Jonpy99 @HighMarsed @CovertCabal @WarSpotting 14) Russia imported a lot of shells from North Korea that were in very bad shape late last year. Firing pore-quality shells uses up the barrel life, with a low probability of a hit, So I think that Russia would only have used them if there principle limiting factor was Barrels. 

15) Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), are another type of artillery, and Jompy has done a count of those in storage. Showing 3/4 and 2/3 of the main 2 types have gone. so quite high amounts, it’s possible that MLRS will become another pinch point if the quoted numbers of new rockets made are accurate. but not yet.

16) When counting equipment from satellite photos it requires there to be photographs, and with some of the bases, the photographs are quite old. generally, this will mean more equipment has been taken than realised in the overall numbers. It’s also possible that some of the equipment left is in better or worse condition than it seems from the photos. 

@Jonpy99 @HighMarsed @CovertCabal @WarSpotting 17) Counting equipment from satellite photos is hard and I want to again thank those who do this. I also want to thank @warspotting and their team, for the work they do counting destroyed equipment. 

18) There have been people claiming Russia is about to Run out of equipment since day two of the war, and they were Wrong. However, I come back to the point from the start. Russia’s store of equipment is deep but not bottomless, We don’t truly know how close to the end we are, but for some significant types at least it might be close. 

19) To finish off, I want to restate that the way to fight Russia is not to try to fight them to the end of an attritional war, where Russia pulls every last thing from storage and imports what it can. Instead, the West should give a surge of equipment, and ammunition now in one big wave, to let Ukraine win a decisive victory.

A victory for themselves, and a victory for Liberalism, Democracy and Freedom, that ring around the world for all to hear. 

Not sure where in Ukraine this is, but the BUK has gone boom:

Strike on Russian BUK air defence system with classic air defence missile detonation. https://t.co/QhqNkE7r8M pic.twitter.com/N5v2UNi4Rn

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 20, 2024

Kyiv:

This is what the first minutes of another 6-hour blackout look like in a Kyiv supermarket today. Everyone’s totally calm and determined, and the cashier even manages to crack a joke. Moments later, the generators start pic.twitter.com/HiGQGymzW4

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) July 20, 2024

The Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka axis:

In Donetsk region, the Russian army is advancing to the most important highway between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka: “Cutting the highway means huge losses in logistics for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as it is the only way near the front line.”

The 47th Separate Mechanized… pic.twitter.com/4cALOMK62m

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 20, 2024

In Donetsk region, the Russian army is advancing to the most important highway between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka: “Cutting the highway means huge losses in logistics for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as it is the only way near the front line.”

The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade “Magura” is holding these lines, and the Bradley infantry fighting vehicle crew is repelling Russian assaults on the mentioned area. Oleh, the commander of the American IFV, says that if it wasn’t Bradley, he and his crew “would have met with the archangels more than once.”

According to the crew, their vehicle went into combat against three Russian IFVs/APCs at once, and also hit a Russian T-80 tank with a TOW BGM in a one-on-one battle. According to the driver, Bradley is very easy to drive: “If you have a driver’s license, you can sit and drive it right away.”

📹: Radio Svoboda

Russian occupied Crimea:

Radio Svoboda has published satellite images of the aftermath of a strike on a Russian military base on Lake Donuzlav in Crimea.

The images show traces of a fire after the Ukrainian strike on the Russian military base. One of the fire centers is on the territory of the Donuzlav… pic.twitter.com/O8xAqOrQUu

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 20, 2024

Radio Svoboda has published satellite images of the aftermath of a strike on a Russian military base on Lake Donuzlav in Crimea.

The images show traces of a fire after the Ukrainian strike on the Russian military base. One of the fire centers is on the territory of the Donuzlav wind power plant, but the naval base suffered the major damage.

According to the Russian Defense Ministry, Ukrainian surface kamikaze drones were destroyed in the area on the night of July 18.

📹: Radio Svoboda

Shroma, Abkazhia, Georgia:

thank you all for sharing, it is really important for more people to know them

— Georgian Legion (@georgian_legion) July 19, 2024

Today marks the 31st anniversary of the heroic capture of the village of Shroma. During the Abkhazian War, the volunteers from the Ukrainian battalion “Argo” demonstrated exceptional bravery. One memorable episode involved the use of ropes to descend a 200-meter cliff, allowing them to transport weapons and equipment unnoticed. This daring maneuver brought them within striking distance of enemy positions, leading to a successful surprise attack at dawn.

On July 19, 1993, the Ukrainian volunteers, together with Georgian forces, launched a night operation to bypass heavily defended positions and successfully captured Shroma. The Russian garrison in Shroma consisted of around 600 troops.

We also remember “Tsviakh”, a Ukrainian hero who was buried with military honors in Sukhumi. After the city fell, Russians desecrated his grave, exhumed his coffin, and threw it into the sea. The waves brought it back, and they then destroyed it with a grenade launcher. Such acts remind us of the ongoing struggles and the sacrifices made.

For their courage, bravery, and heroism in defending the territorial integrity of Georgia, Ukrainian volunteer soldiers were awarded State honors by the Georgian Republic.

Order of Vakhtang Gorgasali II Degree:

Serhii Obukh (“Dibrova”)
Roman Halazyk (“Bagryany”)
Volodymyr Krutyk
Leonid Tkachuk (“Tsviakh”)
Roman Muzyka
Oleksii Dovhyi
Volodymyr Bilyi

Order of Vakhtang Gorgasali III Degree:

Valerii Bobrovych
Andrii Babii
Serhii Hladkevych
Eduard Bilous
Oleh Benha
Serhii Hram
Volodymyr Hushlia
Anatolii Yelkin
Mykola Karpiuk
Yurii Kolesnikov
Vasyl Kukharchuk
Oleh Marchuk
Viktor Movchun
Ihor Mazur
Mykola Polishchuk
Serhii Zholud
Andrii Slukhnian
Ruslan Suhachenko
Andrii Tymu
Ihor Tkachuk
Ihor Shypshyn
Viktor Kharchenko

We shall forever remember and honor the fallen Ukrainian soldiers who sacrificed their lives in Abkhazia.

Fifteen years later the members of the 13th Shavnabada Battalion asked for our help: “You’re coming, right? We came for you, you’re coming. We go and get started, you come.”

Unlike the Ukrainians we did not go and help.

Millerovo air field, Rostov, Russia:

Moment of tonight’s drone attack on Russian Millerovo airfield https://t.co/56UJCw6D2G pic.twitter.com/4v6fXZ2W3p

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 20, 2024

/1. Russian Millerovo military airfield was attacked by drones tonight. ~150km from the frontline. pic.twitter.com/v5N2zcdLxJ

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 20, 2024

/3. The Milerovo airfield is located 20 km from the border with Ukraine, which guarantees complete safety from western weapons systems.

Despite the fact that it is located relatively close to the front line, 150km. For example, Belbek military airfield, which was targeted by… pic.twitter.com/6yhQCJQqoL

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 20, 2024

/3. The Milerovo airfield is located 20 km from the border with Ukraine, which guarantees complete safety from western weapons systems.

Despite the fact that it is located relatively close to the front line, 150km. For example, Belbek military airfield, which was targeted by ATACMS, is located 230km from the frontline.

Moscow:

for those who had any kinds of illusions about them 👇 https://t.co/BbzeD41Dqg

— Georgian Legion (@georgian_legion) July 20, 2024

A heavily propagandized and indoctrinated ethnic Russian population gets you to this.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

First, something from the Lithuanian Foreign Minister:

This is Rango.
Rango was rescued from our back yard and immediately promoted to Official Cat of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Lithuania. 🎖 pic.twitter.com/brYq1nmN51

— Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 (@GLandsbergis) July 19, 2024

And now on to the birthday boy!

Today, I am 5. I haven’t decided yet whether it’s a lot or a little. But I am grateful to have lived to this age, that Ukraine is still strong and wonderful, and that I have you—my entire world.
If you would like to give me a gift, I will use it to raise funds for my fundraiser… pic.twitter.com/0zsNvxeBuc

— Patron (@PatronDsns) July 20, 2024

Today, I am 5. I haven’t decided yet whether it’s a lot or a little. But I am grateful to have lived to this age, that Ukraine is still strong and wonderful, and that I have you—my entire world.
If you would like to give me a gift, I will use it to raise funds for my fundraiser for the treatment and prosthetics of sappers.
Here is the link to the fundraiser and my PayPal : [email protected]

https://send.monobank.ua/jar/4bdwGMrSxm

Or you can make a triple gift: buy a Patron Box in my store, and it will bring me joy. All profits will go to help sappers, and the boxes themselves will go to children who need such a surprise (perhaps even to the kids at Ohmatdyt) and I will deliver them personally.

https://patronshop.com.ua/en/product/1721219430/1721219590

Open thread!

We Need This Step – a Step That Will Force Russia to Seek Peace – Speech by the President of Ukraine at the Meeting of the UK Government

19 July 2024 – 14:33

Thank you very much, dear Keir, dear Prime Minister,

Honorable Cabinet Members,

It is very symbolic and important for me, for all Ukrainians, that we have such a strong support and trust of the United Kingdom – this is the first meeting of the British Cabinet of this kind. Thank you so much.

I truly hope that this beginning of the new British Government’s work, will open up even more shared opportunities for us – Ukraine and the UK.

From the first days of this Russian war, our people have felt that Britain, you people, would not only stand by us but also help bring victory closer.

And I am grateful that British self-respect and your love of life have always resonated in your leadership – truly meaningful and helpful.

Britain has taken good steps and every new move you made strengthened our men and women on the frontlines, our successes – in the Black Sea first of all, our greater political opportunities, and our resilience as a nation, an army, and an entire society.

Sure, Russia fears such support.

In Moscow, they know that you in London have the decision-making power that can steer this war towards its end. And it will be the right conclusion – just and fair.

We have to remember that in many aspects, Russia is weaker. Their intelligence is weaker. Their diplomacy has turned into mere bribes, lies, or threats. Economically, they are not strong.

The only competitive advantage Putin still has is a large supply of Soviet-era weapons, money, and a complete disregard for human life. Quite a dangerous mix.

We must deprive Putin of money and capability to produce more weapons.

And for his disregard of human life he must pay – with his losses and his defeat.

How can we ensure this?

Right now, we are missing the main answer to this question. And that is our long-range capability.

By defending Ukraine against the Russian advance on Kharkiv in May-June, we have proven that we can stop any Russian attempt to expand the war if the restrictions on using Western weapons against Russian military are lifted.

Once we can strike farther than just near the border, including Russian military airfields, we will not only protect ourselves from any Russian offensives, but also secure our frontline positions and cities from Russian bombs.

Putin has no shame in hitting residential areas, city squares, hospitals, and schools with bombs.

Russia uses about thirty five hundred guided bombs per month. It is impossible to shoot them all down.

But it is possible to destroy all the bomb carriers. And I ask you to show your leadership in this, and please – convince other partners to remove the limits. We need this step – a step that will force Russia to seek peace.

Mr. Prime Minister,

I want to praise the energy with which you have started the work of the new Government.

And yesterday, we already had a very productive meeting – thank you so much – with the defense industries, secretaries of defense and trade were there. The meeting was really substantive. And I hope we will now work even more actively.

Truly, when making changes, it is important not to lose a single day, and the faster you act the more results you will achieve.

And the same principle applies to the pressure on Russia for the war – we must be as energetic as possible so that the aggressor cannot use any day to adapt to the pressure on him.

I thank Britain and all the partners who provide the real power of sanctions against Russia and who work with us for a solution that will allow all profits from frozen Russian assets to be used to defend against Russian aggression, and later allow these assets to be confiscated. This is also just.

And I want to underline that nowadays the sense of safety and security for each person cannot be separated from the overall security situation in the country and the state’s ability to defend itself. I appreciate your task to make Britain and the whole of Europe more safe and secure. I hope you’ll succeed. And our bilateral security agreement with Britain was the first and, in many ways, exemplary for other agreements. We in Ukraine are extremely grateful for such leadership. I hope we can achieve the main goals of our agreement during the years your government is in office. I really appreciate that our Ministers have just signed the Defense Industrial Support Treaty, a practical document. We always have to keep in mind that security and defense cooperation between Ukraine and the UK always matters. And of course I invite you, Keir, to visit Ukraine. Thank you so much. When you have the opportunity to come to Ukraine, you will see that for all Ukrainians it is a privilege and we are very thankful to the UK, to all of you, to your whole nation. Thank you again. We can work out as many details of our arrangements as possible, so that our people – Ukrainians and Britons – can feel the results as soon as possible.

Thank you again! Thank you for this invitation from your strong team! Thank you!

Слава Україні!

Ukraine and the UK signed a loan agreement for £2 billion.

The purpose of the agreement is to provide financial support for strengthening Ukraine’s defense capabilities, which includes the purchase of modern weapons, military equipment, and other defense equipment in accordance… pic.twitter.com/9NXxCJ9dsT

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 19, 2024

Ukraine and the UK signed a loan agreement for £2 billion.

The purpose of the agreement is to provide financial support for strengthening Ukraine’s defense capabilities, which includes the purchase of modern weapons, military equipment, and other defense equipment in accordance with NATO standards.

We are grateful to our British partners for their support and are sure that this partnership will help us in ensuring security and peace in Ukraine.
🇺🇦🤝🇬🇧

President Zelenskyy also had a phone call with Trump today. Here’s Zelenskyy’s take:

I spoke with @realDonaldTrump to congratulate him on the Republican nomination and condemn the shocking assassination attempt in Pennsylvania. I wished him strength and absolute safety in the future.

I noted the vital bipartisan and bicameral American support for protecting our…

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) July 19, 2024

I spoke with @realDonaldTrump to congratulate him on the Republican nomination and condemn the shocking assassination attempt in Pennsylvania. I wished him strength and absolute safety in the future.

I noted the vital bipartisan and bicameral American support for protecting our nation’s freedom and independence.

Ukraine will always be grateful to the United States for its help in strengthening our ability to resist Russian terror. Russian attacks on our cities and villages continue every day.

We agreed with President Trump to discuss at a personal meeting what steps can make peace fair and truly lasting.

Evan Gershkovich was convicted of espionage and sentenced to sixteen years in prison today.

“The trial proceeded with unusual swiftness — suggesting potential developments in negotiations for a prisoner exchange. Trials for espionage in Russia typically take months.”

Plainly obvious hostage-taking.https://t.co/lZOJI4S9m3

— Kareem Rifai 🌐 (@KareemRifai) July 19, 2024

Donetsk Oblast:

Here we go again!
Ukrainian warriors shot down another russian Su-25 jet in the Donetsk region.
Great work! pic.twitter.com/CrWX7Sg1YR

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 19, 2024

Urozhaine:

The work of the Presidential Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Zaporizhzhia front, Urozhaine area. https://t.co/Z6FulIeoHb pic.twitter.com/eHYqdQZyjR

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 19, 2024

Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:

/2. ATACMS missile engine found in Luhansk after strikes. Russians claim 3 ATACMS missiles were used. pic.twitter.com/eaKHOKH6Uu

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 19, 2024

/4. Geolocation of the remainings of ATACMS in Luhansk.
(48.542851,39.381282)https://t.co/LEzTzs68hD pic.twitter.com/dhCFMmUfW0

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 19, 2024

Kurakhove, Donetsk Oblast:

The video shows the defeat of a Russian tank assault column by Ukrainian Warriors of the 79th Air Assault Brigade.

In the area of Kurakhove, Donetsk region, the Russians tried once again to break through our defenses by sending a column consisting of three newest T-72B3M tanks,… pic.twitter.com/Q6Z2y2qrpQ

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 19, 2024

The video shows the defeat of a Russian tank assault column by Ukrainian Warriors of the 79th Air Assault Brigade.

In the area of Kurakhove, Donetsk region, the Russians tried once again to break through our defenses by sending a column consisting of three newest T-72B3M tanks, two APCs with paratroopers, and a group of motorcyclists. The tanks were equipped with additional protection in the form of a shed on the turret, electronic warfare systems, mine-sweepers.

Despite such preparations, the column did not reach the Ukrainian positions – 3 tanks hit mines and were completely destroyed by drones. Both APCs were also hit. At least 6 Russian soldiers were destroyed by grenades that were dropped by from Mavic drones.

One of the Russian soldiers tried to hide in the basement of a large dilapidated building, and then the building was destroyed by a Ukrainian guided aerial bomb.

Another brilliant work of the Defenders of the 79th Brigade. Glory to the Heroes!

Serebryansky Forest:

𝐔𝐤𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐱𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚𝐭𝐲𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐰𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐉𝐮𝐥𝐲. 𝐂𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐔𝐤𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐚𝐥𝐬𝐨 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐚𝐫.

‼️ 𝐖𝐚𝐫 𝐢𝐧 𝐔𝐤𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐮𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐬… https://t.co/tE4fkviO7T pic.twitter.com/gcI4qao3eO

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 19, 2024

𝐔𝐤𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐱𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚𝐭𝐲𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐰𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐉𝐮𝐥𝐲. 𝐂𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐔𝐤𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐚𝐥𝐬𝐨 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐚𝐫.

‼️ 𝐖𝐚𝐫 𝐢𝐧 𝐔𝐤𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐮𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞
According to the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center, climate in Ukraine is warming up faster than in Europe. Signs of desert climate are already forming in some areas of Odesa and Kherson regions.

‼️ 𝐔𝐤𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐬 𝐬𝐮𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐰𝐚𝐫
According to the Operational Headquarters on recording environmental crimes, more than 3 million hectares of forests in Ukraine have been affected. This is almost a third of Ukraine’s forests. Some of them have been lost forever.

Among the most affected regions are Chernihiv region – about 400,000 hectares; Sumy region – 290,000 hectares; Luhansk region – 200,000 hectares; Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Kharkiv regions – 120-160,000 hectares.

◾️ 𝐔𝐤𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐛𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐝𝐮𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐬𝐡𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠
According to government reports, Russian military aggression led to three times as many forest fires in 2022 compared to 2021. Before the full-scale war, up to 10,000 hectares of Ukrainian forests were affected by fires. In 2022, when there were no droughts, fires affected more than 330,000 hectares of forests.

Environmentalists think that the fires were fatal for pine forests – they will not be able to recover in the near future. Some of these areas will not be afforested for decades because now there are no real winters and precipitation. Winds and heat have come to Ukraine, so it will be more difficult to restore forests.

◾️ 𝐈𝐭 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐝𝐞-𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐔𝐤𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐬
According to the State Forest Resources Agency of Ukraine, almost 20% of the territory, i.e., about 3 million hectares of forests, were covered by combat of varying intensity.

Russia mined the territories chaotically, which complicates de-mining works. Residents of the areas bordering with forests are asked to refrain from walking and resting in forests and forest belts.

◾️ 𝐑𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐚𝐧𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐮𝐭 𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐔𝐤𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭
Since the beginning of the war, Russians have cut hectares of forest for commercial profit or to strengthen their position.

Ukraine’s State Forest Resources Agency said it had uncovered examples of illegal logging in Kyiv region and northern districts of Sumy and Kharkiv regions occupied by Russia at the start of the war. The trees felled include oak, pine, hornbeam, and ash. In some temporarily occupied eastern regions of Ukraine, local “authorities” openly sell timber on social media.

‼️ 𝐂𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐮𝐧𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐝 𝐝𝐞𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧
Uncontrolled logging leads to habitat change, loss of biodiversity, and increased aridity. This process also contributes to global warming, which we are already seeing in Ukraine.

‼️ 𝐂𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭
As temperatures rise gradually, unchanged precipitation leads to a moisture deficit, which is particularly noticeable for vegetable production. Consequently, Ukraine’s “vegetable belt” has moved northward and closer to the Dnieper basin – Cherkasy and Poltava regions.

One example of the impact of climate change on harvest: rising temperatures led to a poor sunflower harvest in the summer of 2023 in Mykolaiv and Odesa regions – it simply withered. Therefore, in the southern regions of the so-called “sunflower belt,” farmers are abandoning sunflower growing en masse. Now, it can be seen in the fields of Zhytomyr and Chernihiv regions.

📹: Serebryansky forest, a site of intense combat

And, via the Thread Reader App, here’s the thread he’s quote tweeting from Chris Owens, the unofficial biographer of L. Ron Hubbard’s military service (everyone needs a hobby…):

1/ A year after the destruction of Ukraine’s Kakhovka Dam, vegetation cover in formerly irrigated parts of the southern Kherson region and Crimea has fallen by 85% or more. It’s a sign that the former breadbasket region is reverting rapidly to its previous semi-desert state. ⬇️

2/ Recent data from NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer instrument on the Terra and Aqua satellites shows drastic changes in the region’s Vegetation Condition Index. It currently shows vegetation cover across much of the region to be at 15-25% of historical trends.

3/ The area where vegetation cover has fallen the most in both Crimea and the southern Kherson region closely matches the area formerly irrigated by the North Crimean Canal and the Kakhovka Canal on the mainland. The Kakhovka Dam’s destruction cut both canals off from the Dnipro.

4/ In total, some 12,000 km of canals were fed by the reservoir on both sides of the Dnipro. The Kakhovka Canal alone irrigated 220,000 hectares of land and enabled the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of people in the agricultural sector and heavy industries.

5/ Before the dam and the canals were built, the Azov region was very arid. The average annual rainfall is 350 mm while evaporation amounts to 1000-1100 mm. Two Russian attempts to invade Crimea via the Azov region failed in 1687 and 1689 because there was nothing to drink. 

6/ Northern Crimea was even worse for agriculture and human habitation. It was a hot, arid, dusty plain with frequent droughts, dust storms and crop failures. The native Crimean Tatars scraped a living with subsistence agriculture and the production of crafts, rather than crops. 

7/ As an English traveller wrote in 1855, Crimea’s interior in the summer was a place “of melancholy desolation. The grasses and flowers are then dust and ashes; the surface is a perfect desert; and can only support a few herbs and scrubby bushes…” Hunger was frequent.

8/ Until the late 1940s, the Russians barely even bothered with the interior of Crimea, preferring to settle instead on the Mediterranean-to-subtropical coast. In contrast to “European” Crimea on the coast, “Asiatic” inland Crimea was desperately poor and neglected. 

9/ The big problem was the lack of water. Soviet agronomists found that it took 500 tons of water to grow a single ton of wheat in the region, but there are few rivers in Crimea or the southern Kherson oblast. As Soviet official Leonid Melnikov wrote in 1950:

10/ “The fertile soils of these regions do not always properly reward the labours of the collective farmers… Dry winds and black dust storms frequently devastate the fields and destroy the fruits of the labour of many thousands of people … 

11/ “In 60 years, at the junction of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, there were 20 drought-stricken years in the southern districts of the Ukraine … Drought, occurring every three or four years, frequently assumed the proportions of a calamity.” 

12/ The construction of the Kakhovka Dam and the canal network enabled industrial agriculture for the first time. Many circular fields watered on the centre-pivot irrigation principle can be seen clearly in satellite images, built along the lines of the canals.

13/ Despite the loss of the dam, demands on the water supply have actually increased since 2022 due to Russia’s military presence. Civilian settlements have had their water supplies cut off for days at a time to ensure that the military receives enough water. 

14/ Within a couple of weeks of the dam’s destruction on 9 June 2023, NASA satellites recorded the North Crimean Canal drying up. It provided 85% of Crimea’s water. The Russians are now reportedly trying to top it up with water from Crimea’s few small reservoirs and from wells.

15/ The peninsula has 15 reservoirs to capture rainwater and snowmelt, with a combined volume of about 250 million cubic meters. However, half of them have capacities of under 10 million cubic meters, and they were never intended to replace the canal water.

16/ Crimea had an extremely dry winter in 2023-24, with only 10-50% of the normal precipitation overall and only 17% of the normal mountain precipitation. Rivers have dried up and reservoirs are already severely depleted, as seen here in the case of the Bilohirs’ke reservoir.

17/ The outcome is that Crimea and the Azov region seem to be reverting rapidly to their pre-Soviet condition as near-desert areas. Much agriculture, and even human habitation, may no longer be possible. As many as 500,000 people have been predicted to be forced to leave. 

18/ The region’s vegetation had already been stressed badly by the North Crimean Canal being cut off by the Ukrainians between 2014 and 2022 (it was reopened briefly after the 2022 invasion). The difference in vegetation cover between July 2013 and July 2024 is stark.

19/ One farmer interviewed by Radio Free Europe has noted that even drought-resistant crops are now dying out. Farmers have had to write off their crops. Little is now growing: 

20/ “Everything has dried up, there were few strawberries this year, and the wild berry glades have burned out from the heat, there are stone fruits, but they are small.

21/ “Because of the heat and drought, there is no green grass, only dry grass, and milk yields have dropped sharply. There will be no hayfields in such conditions, which means that they will have to buy hay at high prices, if it is available at all. 

22/ “In such circumstances, villagers are beginning to reduce the number of livestock and abandon vegetable gardens. In many villages, the water pressure in the system is already low, as water consumption is in excess of the norm. 

23/ “I think we will soon start to see water cut-offs, and there will be a big problem with water in Crimea this summer.” /end 

Sources:
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🔹earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151622/…
jamestown.org/program/water-…
ukrinform.net/rubric-society…
unn.ua/en/news/crimea…
unn.ua/en/news/crimea…
unn.ua/en/news/even-d…
24tv.ua/ru/zasuha-v-kr…
crimea.ria.ru/20240504/v-kry…

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151622/canals-in-ukraine-are-drying-up

Water level drops in occupied Crimea’s riversRivers are going shallow across temporarily occupied Crimea. — Ukrinform.https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-society/3873022-water-level-drops-in-occupied-crimeas-rivers.html

Когда оккупанту все равно: засуха в Крыму становится реальной угрозойАннексированный полуостров фактически засыхает. Уменьшение водных запасов может уничтожить сельское хозяйство и экономику региона. Оккупанты не в состоянии решить проблему, а украинская власть уделяет…https://24tv.ua/ru/zasuha-v-krymu-stanovitsja-realnoj-ugrozoj_n1340691

Even drought-tolerant crops suffer: severe drought in occupied Crimea | УННУНН Society ✎ Due to the prolonged drought and high temperatures in the occupied Crimea, crops are severely damaged, even drought-resistant fields are drying up, fo…https://unn.ua/en/news/even-drought-tolerant-crops-suffer-severe-drought-in-occupied-crimea

Crimea faces water shortages, forced to use reservoir resources to fill the North Crimean Canal | УННУНН Society ✎ Due to the dry spring, the Russian authorities in Crimea are forced to use the resources of the Belogorsk and Taigan reservoirs to fill the North Crim…https://unn.ua/en/news/crimea-faces-water-shortages-forced-to-use-reservoir-resources-to-fill-the-north-crimean-canal

Crimea claims shallowing of Belogorskoye reservoir: local historian says it threatens water supply situation | УННУНН Society ✎ The Belogorskoye water reservoir in occupied Crimea has become shallow, its southern part has already dried up, and due to the high rate of discharges…https://unn.ua/en/news/crimea-claims-shallowing-of-belogorskoye-reservoir-local-historian-says-it-threatens-water-supply-situation

В Крыму пересохли две реки: эксперт оценил риски засухиСнежные запасы в горах Крыма иссякли, потому пересыхание некоторых горных рек, расположенных на большой высоте, является нормальным процессом для нынешнего… РИА Новости Крым, 04.05.2024https://crimea.ria.ru/20240504/v-krymu-peresokhli-dve-reki-ekspert-otsenil-riski-zasukhi-1137009860.html

В Крыму началась засуха – аграрии “списывают” посевыВ Крыму некоторые районы страдают от засухи – уже списаны около семи тысяч гектаров посевов. На этой площади не будет проводиться уборка урожая, сказала РИА… РИА Новости Крым, 21.05.2024https://crimea.ria.ru/20240521/v-krymu-nachalas-zasukha–agrarii-spisyvayut-posevy-1137450307.html

Water Shortages in Russian-Occupied Crimea Set to Trigger Mass OutmigrationExecutive Summary: Russian-occupied Crimea is now facing water shortages so severe that as many as 500,000 of the peninsula’s 2.5 million residents may soon be forced to try to flee despite Moscow’s c…https://jamestown.org/program/water-shortages-in-russian-occupied-crimea-set-to-trigger-mass-outmigration/

🔹

https://glam1.gsfc.nasa.gov/

Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ A year after the destruction of Ukraine’s Kakhovka Dam, vegetation cover in formerly irrigated parts of the southern Kherson region and Crimea has fallen by 85% or more. It’s a sign t…https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1813685955217572188.html

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