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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

There is no right way to do the wrong thing.

They don’t have outfits that big. nor codpieces that small.

It is not hopeless, and we are not helpless.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

One lie, alone, tears the fabric of reality.

When you’re a Republican, they let you do it.

Cancel the cowardly Times and Post and set up an equivalent monthly donation to ProPublica.

Bark louder, little dog.

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

Let’s bury these fuckers at the polls 2 years from now.

If you thought you’d already seen people saying the stupidest things possible on the internet, prepare yourselves.

If you voted for Trump, you don’t get to speak about ethics, morals, or rule of law.

“When somebody takes the time to draw up a playbook, they’re gonna use it.”

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

Disappointing to see gov. newsom with his finger to the wind.

Within six months Twitter will be fully self-driving.

The arc of the moral universe does not bend itself. it is up to us to bend it.

Russian mouthpiece, go fuck yourself.

Conservatism: there are people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

Rupert, come get your orange boy, you petrified old dinosaur turd.

Never give a known liar the benefit of the doubt.

Republicans cannot even be trusted with their own money.

We will not go quietly into the night; we will not vanish without a fight.

Republicans in disarray!

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

PSA: Postcards Stamp Buyers (and Open Thread)

by WaterGirl|  July 12, 20244:24 pm| 129 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Postcard stamps are going up this week – from 53 cents to 56 cents – so the folks who have offered to buy stamps for a few longtime BJ peeps who are writing postcards probably want to buy them TODAY.

To take advantage of prices before the USPS increases prices this weekend, please email me TODAY if you are able to help buy stamps for those BJ peeps who are writing postcards.

Please write to me even if you have already let me know; I have been so swamped my email inbox is a disaster.  I know Nukular Biscuits is one, and JR is another.

LET ME KNOW HOW MANY STAMPS YOU ARE UP FOR SUPPLYING TO POSTCARD WRITERS (who are regular BJ peeps).  Roughly speaking, 2 postcard stamps cost $1.  We’re probably looking at people who are up for funding 100 stamps.  (or more)

(You can expect another post asking for information on who needs stamps in the next week or so.)

 

PSA: Postcards Stamp Buyers (and Open Thread)Post + Comments (129)

First They Curse, Then They Press Me ‘Til I Hurt

by @heymistermix.com|  July 12, 20244:09 pm| 74 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

First They Curse, Then They Press Me 'Til I Hurt

Whatever our feelings on the Democratic ticket, I think we can all agree that Rudy Giuliani getting thrown out of bankruptcy court is worth a laugh or two:

A New York judge dismissed Rudy Giuliani’s bankruptcy case on Friday, clearing the way for two Georgia election workers to try and recover nearly $150m Giuliani was ordered to pay them for defaming them after the 2020 election.

The ruling by US bankruptcy Judge Sean Lane comes after lawyers for the two women, Ruby Freeman and her daughter Shaye Moss, as well as other creditors accused Giuliani of concealing information about his finances. The judge also prevented Giuliani from refiling for bankruptcy within one year.

I hope Ms. Freeman and Ms. Moss bleed him so bad that he ends up making his martinis from plastic bottle vodka and smoking Swisher Sweets.

First They Curse, Then They Press Me ‘Til I HurtPost + Comments (74)

Isn’t There Some Event Happening Next Week?

by @heymistermix.com|  July 12, 202412:32 pm| 255 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

I know something is gonna happen, but I can’t remember what.  Let’s see,  I’m going to visit my aunt in another state — no, that’s not it.  Vampire Weekend is playing Red Rocks, nah, I didn’t get tickets in time.  Hmmm,  now I remember:  the Republican National Convention.

Jesus, I had to actually google it to see when it started (Monday, July 15).  There is not a single story mentioning it on the Post’s front page.  The Guardian has one story about Teamsters’ President Sean O’Brien possibly addressing the convention (what’s up with that guy, anyway?  He seems to have some real misunderstanding of the Republican Party’s attitude towards unions.)  There’s one more story waaay down the page.

Overall, though, the biggest free media opportunity for Republicans is not drowning out even this little turd,  which is top right on the Guardian US home page right now:

Isn't There Some Event Happening Next Week?

So, a no-chance nepo baby’s rape allegation is bigger news than the accused pedophile and convicted felon’s convention.

I understand that the Republicans really don’t want us paying attention to their convention — it’s all fan service for fans of the worst things.  What the christofascists, glibertarians and rich, entitled fucks who serve as delegates want to hear is which folks need killing.   They’re going to play all the hits:  Project 2025, life beginning at the first thought of conception, sending goon squads into cities to round up immigrants, and how contraception needs to be outlawed.

What I don’t understand is how the media gaggle is going to justify basically ignoring a staple of American politics.  Even in 2020, coverage started more than a couple of days before the event.  I mean, it’s clear that they’re totally afraid/unable to write a set of declarative sentences describing the horrors that await if Trump is elected, but does their fear and inability stretch far enough to ignore an entire convention?  I guess we’re about to find out.

(One kind of related point about the press conference yesterday:  the only reason some of the questions were half decent was because there were foreign press in attendance.)

Isn’t There Some Event Happening Next Week?Post + Comments (255)

If you’re looking for someone who’s young and athletic, go watch a fucking movie.

by WaterGirl|  July 12, 202410:00 am| 232 Comments

This post is in: Biden Administration in Action, Open Threads, Politics

I have been so busy with work that I don’t think I’ve looked at Balloon Juice for two days.

I don’t even know how Biden’s NATO press conference went, but I can guess that to the press it won’t matter how well Biden did – it will only matter to the press if he didn’t do well.  And even then they may make stuff up.

In any case, fuck what the media says. This is what it’s about.

Maybe this has been covered already?  If it has, it’s still worth sharing again.

EYES ON THE FUCKING PRIZE.

When I cast my vote for President Biden, I wasn’t expecting much. I just wanted trump out of office.

I knew he was old.
I knew he had a stutter.
I knew he had a rep for “gaffes.”
I didn’t care. Just wanted trump gone.

Four years later, things are different.
I wasn’t expecting… pic.twitter.com/y2XBpB4hT0

— BrooklynDad_Defiant!☮️ (@mmpadellan) July 11, 2024

BrookynDad_Defiant

When I cast my vote for President Biden, I wasn’t expecting much.  I just wanted trump out of office.

I knew he was old.
I knew he had a stutter.
I knew he had a rep for “gaffes.”
I didn’t care.  Just wanted trump gone.

Four years later, things are different.
I wasn’t expecting that President Biden would be the most legislatively successful President in my lifetime.

I wasn’t expecting him to help expand NATO.
I wasn’t expecting him to lower insulin & inhalers.
I wasn’t expecting him to create & recover 15m jobs.
I wasn’t expecting him to bring manufacturing back.
I wasn’t expecting him to forgive student debt.

But he did ALL those things, and more.
He surpassed my expectations by a lot.
And he has more planned for 2025-2028.

He’s not a master orator,
He doesn’t move so smoothly
But neither did FDR from his wheelchair.

Meanwhile, trump is STILL a threat. He wants to be a dictator.
He wants to stay out of prison.
He wants revenge on his enemies.
He wants to take away from the poor and middle class and give to the ultra wealthy.
His Project 2025 will enable a national abortion ban to criminalize women seeking safe and legal abortions.
His Project 2025 will take away the rights of our LGBTQ family and friends.
His Project 2025 will transform the government into a loyalty pledge, not to America but to him ALONE.
We might never have another free election.

THAT is what is at stake in this election.

We can continue to progress with Biden policies, or we can let trump destroy democracy as we know it.

If you’re looking for someone who’s young and athletic, go watch a fucking movie.

I’ll take the old guy who needs a nap while saving democracy over the old guy trying to overthrow democracy who needs a legal team.

.

I’M RIDING WITH JOE BIDEN UNTIL THE WHEELS FALL OFF AFTER THAT PRESS CONFERENCE!!! pic.twitter.com/gIExlL1RtX

— Brian Baez (@MentallyDivine) July 12, 2024

If you’re looking for someone who’s young and athletic, go watch a fucking movie.Post + Comments (232)

TGIFriday Morning Open Thread: Should Our Failed Major Media Step Aside?

by Anne Laurie|  July 12, 20248:35 am| 202 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Open Threads, President Biden, Proud to Be A Democrat, Our Failed Media Experiment

If any of these well-dressed drones were capable of shame, well…

Goal for a free press: "See things steady and see them whole."

WH Press corps at this moment: "Hold my beer." https://t.co/KmiyP0NDvz

— James Fallows (@JamesFallows) July 11, 2024

And some people wonder why President Biden is popular with non-white voters!

You don't understand, having crowds of angry white people yelling in our faces to quit is how some of us live our lives.

— Yurok Around The Clock (@HellcatBruce) July 10, 2024

Yeah, I’m tired of screaming into the void where the Major Media outlets supposedly have souls, or at least some vestigage of self-awareness. There are already not-major-media tidbits being reported about the RNC KlownKar Konvention — anybody wanna bet on how the various pending stories out of Milwaukee will compare to the laser focus on Biden’s reelection campaign?

This might be the biggest takeaway here.

They said Biden couldn’t do an unscripted press conference.

He did an hour — after spending all day in meetings.

And he did so with a mastery of the issues that his opponent has never, and will never, have. https://t.co/Rj5wRAOcuR

— Angry Staffer 🌻 (@Angry_Staffer) July 12, 2024

It's helpful and instructive when this is right out in the open. This isn't reporting or analysis. It's reporting the campaign trash talk like it's a face value factual narrative. See the final clause for instance. Imagine being a hype man for some rapper but not realizing it.… https://t.co/l6Yzmzb10S

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) July 12, 2024

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It is time for the press to honestly report Biden is on top of things in a way Trump is not and will never be. “No matter what I did you wouldn’t be satisfied. “ He should do more of these

— Jen "I dissent " Rubin (@JRubinBlogger) July 12, 2024

Well they show themselves for what they are. No excuse to allow dumbness to conquer

— Jen "I dissent " Rubin (@JRubinBlogger) July 12, 2024

Seems like even if they were only doing it for appearances this would be obvious next move for “balanced” outlets. https://t.co/mb1DI5sjDW

— Henry Porter ???? (@HenryPorters) July 12, 2024

Per the CSPAN archive, the last time Donald Trump took questions from reporters in a press conference was on February 8th. National and campaign reporters made an issue of the lack of press conferences with Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden. To date, they have not done so with Trump.

— Aaron Fritschner (@Fritschner) July 12, 2024

The @nytimes is insufferable.
They now become the equivalent of triggered MAGA folks who made account private, lock and closed their comments on Twitter when confronted with facts. https://t.co/y43mqegxx8

— KAMALA NATION (@KamalaNation) July 9, 2024

A lot of networks and podcasts are going out of business if Biden wins because he's a good person, a good president, and most of all, he's boring.

They couldn't find a single scandal for 3.5 years so theyve just invented one. https://t.co/MPBt2A0lyx

— I Smoked DJT The President Of Certified Pedophiles (@BlackKnight10k) July 10, 2024

?? and what’s worse is that we caught them this time, and they’re mad that we did, and did not fall for the narrative. Much like all the articles are for clicks and ratings, and from what I understand they’ve failed at that royally. It’s all down.

— Justin K. ???? (@jkranites) July 11, 2024

why use the tim robinson hot dog suit meme when you can just say oh fuck you

[image or embed]

— not an art thief (@famousartthief.bsky.social) Jul 12, 2024 at 12:10 AM

We just watched President Biden nail that ‘much anticipated’ NATO press conference.

An hour, in full command of the issues.

So yeah, I care less about putting a microscope on the guy who keeps getting the big calls right, and more about beating Trump and all his foolishness! pic.twitter.com/Y46EWk1Zgy

— Isaiah Martin (@isaiahrmartin) July 12, 2024

TGIFriday Morning Open Thread: Should Our Failed Major Media Step Aside?Post + Comments (202)

Late Night Open Thread: Reset!

by Anne Laurie|  July 12, 20243:49 am| 127 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Open Threads, President Biden, Proud to Be A Democrat

.@PeterAlexander: "You referred to Vice President Harris as Vice President Trump. Right now Donald Trump is using that to mock your age and your memory. How do you combat that criticism from tonight?

President Biden: "Listen to him." pic.twitter.com/hJPpXbvDFi

— CSPAN (@cspan) July 12, 2024

Biden going on offense, attacking Trump over NATO, the border, touting inflation cooling, and progress on Israel-Hamas. Doesn’t sound like he’s backing down

— Igor Bobic (@igorbobic) July 11, 2024

Biden: Made a gaffe about Putin.

Trump: Told Putin he could do what he wants.

— David Corn (@DavidCornDC) July 11, 2024

Gaffes are embarrassing. Trump's repeated suck-ups to Putin weren't gaffes, they were what he really thinks.

— David Frum (@davidfrum) July 11, 2024

Biden’s news conference timed out at 59 minutes. Bottom line: He’s not backing down.

— Steve Holland (@steveholland1) July 12, 2024

show full post on front page

By the way: Yes, I know the difference.

One’s a prosecutor, and the other’s a felon. pic.twitter.com/65kYp6m90Z

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 12, 2024

Important to remember that if Harris takes over for Biden and she drops under a 3 point deficit half the same crew will be explaining how if you really believe in democracy and transparency there's no reason not to change nominees twice in three weeks.

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) July 11, 2024


 
I owe somebody a hat tip for this…

Opinion: Georgia Democrat Stacey Abrams says Biden is still best bet against Trump https://t.co/lhXDiuK3EN

— Cheri Jacobus (@CheriJacobus) July 11, 2024

Voters have been treated to a post-debate drama that has almost exclusively focused on performance versus principle. Good people stumble. Liars lie. In the face of the latter, we have become myopically fascinated because, for some, soothing anxiety seems easier than confronting the slow-motion death of democracy.

Let’s be clear: The wishful benefits of a contested convention or a late-stage exit are vastly outweighed by the potential harm. President Joe Biden has the integrity, moral character and record needed to beat Donald Trump in November. Our path to victory lies in standing by Biden and understanding the high stakes of this election.

The anti-Biden doom loop feels loud right now, but it is largely a phenomenon among those who obsessively follow the news or want to make the news. Most of the voters Biden has won and needs to win again already know his foibles — and they aren’t turning in droves to say, “I’m now voting for the bombastic fascistic liar.”…

Our aggressive focus must be on engaging voters who don’t think about politics every day. The ones who haven’t made up their mind about whether they’re going to vote rather than for whom they’d cast that ballot. If that voter gets dedicated, direct attention over the next four months in key states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Biden can secure a decisive victory…

During this first term, the Biden-Harris administration has planted the seeds needed to restore America’s manufacturing jobs, protect our climate, modernize our country’s infrastructure and expand health care access to millions. However, as with any planting, the harvest isn’t immediate. A reelected Biden will tend this progress, and we will reap the benefits. Trump has sworn to raze the ground and salt the Earth. It’s that simple.

If we introduce a new, untested candidate at this stage, Democrats will risk destroying what they seek to save. A last-minute replacement with no established campaign infrastructure, resources or significant national record is certain to fragment our efforts and weaken our message.

Democrats must not fall victim to overcomplicating our political strategy to satisfy the fever dreams of a silver bullet to success. Instead, we should focus on what we do best: building a strong, unified campaign from the grassroots to the grass tops — not the other way around. As Democrats, our strength lies in our ability to stay focused on the people who need help, avoiding unnecessary gambits that could jeopardize our mission.

Joe Biden’s leadership over the last three and a half years has provided stability and progress, and it is crucial that we continue to support him. Ignore the allure of the doom loop, and rather than indulge in useless worry, we must do the critical work of getting Biden reelected president. He is our best guarantee for a more just and equitable future for these United States of America.

Remember, everybody — Sharing is caring!

It’s time to stop the Joe Biden doom loop.

President @JoeBiden has the integrity, moral character and record needed to beat Donald Trump in November.

Read my piece for @ajc: https://t.co/4SovkS06Um pic.twitter.com/if0pg4vI32

— Stacey Abrams (@staceyabrams) July 10, 2024

Late Night Open Thread: <em>Reset!</em>Post + Comments (127)

War for Ukraine Day 869: Russia’s Wetwork Program

by Adam L Silverman|  July 11, 20248:39 pm| 16 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A couple of quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is still doing excellently after her chemo treatment on Monday. There is no noticeable side effects so far. Thank you all, again, for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, I have had a very, very long day. So I’m going to keep tonight short(ish).

As I start writing tonight’s update – 7:45 PM EDT – all of northern central and central Ukraine are under air raid alert. The air raid alert tracker maps are not showing any Russian aviation up, so these are likely the result of drones being detected aloft.

Earlier today, however, much of Ukraine was under the threat of Russian missiles.

Ukraine is under massive russian missile and drone attacks right now! pic.twitter.com/RrHuTT0v7l

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) July 11, 2024

Russian troops struck the village of Bilyi Kolodiaz in the Kupiansk district of the Kharkiv Oblast with glide bombs, causing numerous fires and destroying dozens of houses. Three people were killed, and eight were injured. pic.twitter.com/YDJsOtczqe

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) July 11, 2024

While President Zelenskyy did address the NATO Council today, no video has been posted. Nor is there a video address posted for today.

Earlier today, CNN broke the news, at least in the US, that Russia had targeted the head of Germany’s Rhienmetall, as well as the leaders of a number of other European arms manufacturers for assassination.

CNN — US intelligence discovered earlier this year that the Russian government planned to assassinate the chief executive of a powerful German arms manufacturer that has been producing artillery shells and military vehicles for Ukraine, according to five US and western officials familiar with the episode.

The plot was one of a series of Russian plans to assassinate defense industry executives across Europe who were supporting Ukraine’s war effort, these sources said. The plan to kill Armin Papperger, a white-haired goliath who has led the German manufacturing charge in support of Kyiv, was the most mature.

When the Americans learned of the effort, they informed Germany, whose security services were then able to protect Papperger and foil the plot. A high-level German government official confirmed that Berlin was warned about the plot by the US.

For more than six months, Russia has been carrying out a sabotage campaign across Europe, largely by proxy. It has recruited local amateurs for everything from arson attacks on warehouses linked to arms for Ukraine to petty acts of vandalism — all designed to stymie the flow of weapons from the West to Ukraine and blunt public support for Kyiv.

But the intelligence suggesting that Russia was willing to assassinate private citizens underlined to Western officials just how far Moscow was willing to go in a parallel shadow war it is waging across the west.

Papperger was an obvious target: His company, Rheinmetall, is the largest and most successful German manufacturer of the vital 155mm artillery shells that have become the make-or-break weapon in Ukraine’s grinding war of attrition. The company is opening an armored vehicle plant inside of Ukraine in the coming weeks, an effort that one source familiar with the intelligence said was deeply concerning to Russia. After a series of gains earlier this year, Moscow’s war effort has once again stalled amid redoubled Ukrainian defenses and punishing losses in personnel.

The series of plots, not previously reported, helps explain the increasingly strident warnings from NATO officials about the seriousness of the sabotage campaign — one that some senior officials believe risks crossing the threshold into armed conflict in eastern Europe.

“We’re seeing sabotage, we’re seeing assassination plots, we’re seeing arson. We’re seeing things that have a cost in human lives,” a senior NATO official told reporters on Tuesday. “I believe very much that we’re seeing a campaign of covert sabotage activities from Russia that have strategic consequences.”

The National Security Council declined to comment on the existence of the Russian plot and the US warning to Germany. But, NSC spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement, “Russia’s intensifying campaign of subversion is something that we are taking extremely seriously and have been intently focused on over the past few months.

“The United States has been discussing this issue with our NATO Allies, and we are actively working together to expose and disrupt these activities,” she said. “We have also been clear that Russia’s actions will not deter Allies from continuing to support Ukraine.”

German officials declined to comment on the specifics of CNN’s reporting. But speaking on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Washington on Thursday, Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said it shows how Russia is “waging a hybrid war of aggression” on European allies.

“We have seen that there have been attacks on factories. And this underlines once again that we as Europeans must protect ourselves as best we can and not be naive,” Baerbock said.

In a separate statement sent to CNN, the German Interior Ministry said that Berlin “will not be intimidated by the Russian threats,” emphasizing that they are fundamentally aimed at “undermining the support of Germany and our partners for Ukraine in its defense against the Russian war of aggression.”

A spokesman for Rheinmetall, Oliver Hoffman, declined to comment.

“The necessary measures are always taken in regular consultation with the security authorities,” Hoffman said.

CNN has asked the Russian embassy in Washington for comment.

If I were CNN, which I’m thankfully not, I would not hold my breath waiting for that comment.

More at the link, more on this after the jump.

show full post on front page

Indeed idea that cumulative activity can breach Art Five now applies to more than cyber. Put simply: allies now agree that a lot of assassinations and arson attacks could breach the threshold. Of course A5 is not a magic incantation that solves the problem https://t.co/Sj8nltuybc https://t.co/d3WBSDCY1z

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) July 11, 2024

Not now just cyber, now ‘hybrid operations’ pic.twitter.com/YRNQMf2sIb

— John Foreman CBE (@John_ForemanCBE) July 11, 2024

‘sabotage, acts of violence, provocations at Allied borders, instrumentalisation of irregular migration, malicious cyber activities, electronic interference, disinformation campaigns and malign political influence, as well as economic coercion’.

So everything.

— John Foreman CBE (@John_ForemanCBE) July 11, 2024

It is important to remember that this isn’t just something that Russia just came up with. Rather, it has been going on for a while now as one line of effort in Russia’s ongoing world war against the US, the EU, and NATO.

There has undoubtedly been progress on attribution. UK, Poland & Baltic states have been at forefront. France increasingly vocal. However no-one, with partial exception of UK, has publicly & clearly pointed to Russian cyber activity in CNI akin to Volt Typhoon in America.

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) May 22, 2024

Hybrid/sub-threshold/whatever acidity is unavoidably asymmetric. NATO countries aren’t sponsoring arson or sabotage in Russia. Unrealistic to expect retaliation in kind. But as Russian risk tolerance grows, don’t assume that Western countries’ risk appetite won’t change. Eg: https://t.co/aTpPTgfiBT

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) May 22, 2024

Wrote the thread above in May. The issue has become even more pressing since then, with more evidence that Russian risk tolerance is growing – see news of the assassination plots, below – and no clear way forward on how to deter it. https://t.co/QjiPtKOL04

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) July 11, 2024

The Russian are not only running lines of effort against their adversaries, but also against themselves. Sergey Radenko brings us the details via the Thread Reader App:

This here is pretty entertaining (and I have never seen anything like this). Russia’s foreign intelligence (SVR) publishes fake “declassified” reports by its rezidenty in Kyiv, Paris, Riga, and Washington who are identified as “Aleks,” “Feliks,” “Diaz,” “Stone,” and Nora. 
These fake reports promote conspiracy theories like one here that claims that the Americans are secretly hiring Latin American criminals to fight in Ukraine.Image
Why do I say it’s quite unprecedented? The Russian intelligence have previously faked documents for public consumption (they do it regularly, it’s a trademark). Consider the Tanaka memorandum etc etc. But I don’t think they have ever faked their own documents. 
The primary audience is obviously Russian speaking conspiracy theorists in Russia and abroad, but not only. I would not be surprised if this garbage is picked up and spread by pro-Russian bot networks, especially in the Global South. 
This is highly stupid and probably not worth writing a thread about but here I go anyway. Sigh. Not linking to the original SVR article in order to minimize clicks. The f****s don’t deserve it. 

Here are President Zelenskyy’s thoughts on how the NATO summit is going so far via the Thread Reader app.

Today, I addressed the NATO-Ukraine Council. Our fight is not just about Ukraine defending against Russia’s full-scale aggression, but about protecting the rules-based world order.Image
We do not allow wars of aggression to benefit the aggressor. This is why this Alliance was created – to make sure that those who wage a criminal war against another nation will lose. When our decisions are strong, we ensure the irreversibility of this course. 
I am grateful for every air defense system that works to save the lives of our people. I am grateful for the decision on new Patriots and other air defense systems for Ukraine. These systems need to be delivered to Ukraine as soon as possible. 
We must protect all our cities. And our partners can help with this. Every announced military package must be delivered to the front as quickly as possible. When this happens, Putin fails – and this is vital. 
I am grateful for the permission given to us to strike Russian territory along our border. Thanks to this decision and the courage of our soldiers, we thwarted the Russian offensive on Kharkiv. HIMARS hit military targets near the border, burning Putin’s calculations. 
ATACMS, SCALPs, and Storm Shadows would be even more effective if we could hit Russian military airfields from which planes carrying the glided bombs take off. Russia is launching about 3,500 such bombs every month. 
It is only fair to destroy those military bases that are attacking us and killing our people. Each of you would defend yourselves in the same way. We need this permission from our partners, and most importantly – from the United States. 
We need a sufficient number of F-16s. Russia uses about 300 combat aircraft; we need at least half of that. Training missions for pilots must expand. 
How many years will we wait for half of 300 aircraft at the current speed of supply and training? The war shouldn’t last that long. And in the case of the F-16s, it is not up to us. 
I’m grateful for the NATO-Ukraine Council, created to make our path to the Alliance visible. And the real ticket for Ukraine to join NATO is a just end to this war. Without Ukraine in NATO, European security will never be complete. 
Ukraine outside of the Alliance is a temptation for Russia to try aggression again and again, to become an invader, to go into Ukraine and other countries. That is why all formats of our cooperation, including this one, should be a bridge to Ukraine’s victory in this war. 
Our victory should become a bridge to lasting peace for all of Europe. All this must be based on one strong word – invitation. Ukraine deserves an invitation to NATO. This certainty will irreversibly become the Alliance’s new, strong pillar. Only strong decisions make winners. 

Here’s Peskov’s response to the news about the stormshadows.

pic.twitter.com/TaPDC7klwm

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) July 10, 2024

More seriously, I want to focus/refocus everyone on President Zelenskyy’s statements about the provision of F-16s and the training of the pilots and crews. President Zelenskyy’s statements above contradict what we heard from Assistant to the President – National Security Advisor (APNSA) Jake Sullivan yesterday. Only one of these statements can be true. Additionally, Ukraine is supposed to get 12 F-16s sometime between now and the Fall. Another batch, of indeterminate number, in 2025. And then more/the rest sometime in 2026. But the total is going to be somewhere between 60 and 70, not the 150 that President Zelenskyy is the minimum required number. This is, of course, dependent on Biden being reelected as the US approval for allies and partners to to transfer them to Ukraine, as well as the US-Ukraine bilateral security agreement is only US approval for the transfers and a US agreement with Ukraine as long as a Democrat is in the White House.

Michael Korfman has just gotten back from another battle field visit in Ukraine. Here is his assessment of where things stands via the Thread Reader App:

Thoughts following a recent field study in Ukraine. Ukraine faces difficult months of fighting ahead, but the situation at the front is better than it was this spring. More worrisome is the state of Ukraine’s air defense, and the damage from Russian strikes to the power grid. 1/ 
Ukraine’s manpower, fortifications, and ammunition situation is steadily improving. Russian forces are advancing in Donetsk, and likely to make further gains, but they have not been able to exploit the Kharkiv offensive into a major breakthrough. 2/ 
The Kharkiv front has stabilized, with the overall correlation of forces not favorable to Moscow there. Russian operations are focused on the following directions: Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Ocheretyne-Pokrovsk, and to a lesser extent Kupyansk. 3/ 
Despite the improved outlook, rectifying manpower deficits will take time. Russian forces are likely to keep advancing over the coming months, especially in Donetsk. The next 2 months will be especially difficult. 4/ 
A change in US policy on weapons employment enabled Ukraine to push Russian S-300s, used to bombard the city, away from Kharkiv. This bought the city breathing space, and forced Russia to make adjustments, although the offensive had already culminated by that point. 5/ 
Addressing manpower gaps remains a priority for Ukraine, but the leading problem is increasingly air defense, both short range systems to cover the front line, and long-range air defense to defend cities, critical infrastructure, and rear areas. 6/ 
Ukraine is very low on ammunition for legacy Soviet systems, whereas Russian drone and missile production rates have increased significantly. A deficit of air defense has led to pervasive Russian UAS reconnaissance behind the front line and increased success rates in strikes. 7/ 
This has a pernicious effect, suppressing artillery, enabling Russian dynamic targeting in the rear, and makes forward deploy long-range air defense a high risk proposition. AFU units are pursuing novel counters, such as interceptor FPV drones, but need scalable solutions. 8/ 
Troops arm themselves with spectrum analyzers to detect signals from Zala, Orlan, and Supercam UAS types. Persistent Russian ISR behind the front lines is a growing challenge, especially since there will be less cover to conceal positions come winter. 9/ 
Russian glide bomb (UMPK/UMPB) strikes have become more accurate, and from greater ranges. They destroy entire positions, and are more psychologically impactful than artillery. Glide bombs level structures in cities that would take days of artillery fire to destroy. 10/ 
The promise of additional Patriot batteries, NASAMS, and Hawks, plus rerouting of missile exports to Ukraine can make a big difference this year. That said, pushing Patriot batteries forward to tackle Russian air strikes will be risky if they cannot themselves be protected. 11/ 
Western munitions have reduced the fires disparity. At Kharkiv there is relative parity of 1:1, elsewhere 5:1 and declining. Though there are still issues with having the right charges, forcing Ukrainian artillery to fire closer to the front line. 12/ 
After the passage of new mobilization laws, Ukraine’s first month of increased mobilization shows significantly higher intake of men. There is a lag effect, mobilized personnel need to receive training, before they are available to refill formations. 13/ 
The number of volunteers (as a share of those mobilized) has also increased. Ukraine’s MoD is working to revamp the image of service, opening recruitment centers, allowing brigades to advertise, and offering volunteers options to choose their unit. 14/ 
While Ukraine works on improving basic training at home, the West will need to help with collective training abroad. Added manpower can stabilize the front line this fall, expanding existing units, and filling out new brigades to enable rotation. 15/ 
The West must also come through with equipment packages to replace losses and kit out new units, otherwise these will be mostly infantry, or at best motorized brigades. Ukrainian units need more M-113s, Bradleys, and basic protected mobility. 16/ 
The Kharkiv offensive did not create the length or depth of buffer Russia sought, but it did pull in Ukrainian reserves to stabilize that front. Consequently, Ukraine’s forces are currently stretched thin, and lateral shifts of units can open gaps. 17/ 
However, Russian forces have struggled to conduct operations at scale, or overcome well prepared defenses. Most of the assaults employ smaller elements of assault groups and detachments. These vary, sometimes 8-15 men, but in cases have dwindled to 4-6 men. 18/ 
Russian forces alternate between mechanized, light vehicle, and dismounted infantry attacks depending on availability of equipment. Some units increasingly employ motorcycles, and ATVs. This is partly reduce equipment losses, but also due to a general inability to overcome traditional prepared defenses, covered by pervasive reconnaissance, and strike UAS. 19/ 
These tactics can yield incremental gains, but they are poorly suited to achieving operationally significant breakthroughs. Larger assaults have proven costly to Russian forces, which cannot afford sustained equipment losses of the kind seen earlier in Avdiivka. 20/ 
The main challenge for Ukraine moving forward is Russia’s strike campaign. While Shahed type drones have become increasingly easy to intercept, Russian air strikes have become more sophisticated, and Russian missile production rates have notably increased compared with 2022. 21/ 
Russian strikes have crippled much of Ukraine’s non-nuclear electricity generation. In the summer Ukraine has been getting by thanks to solar energy, with shut offs at night, but looking at expected gigawatt output vs demand, the country faces its hardest winter yet. 22/ 

Ukraine needs ~16GW this winter, optimistically it will be able to produce 12GW. Getting there will require a combination of increased imports, and numerous gas units in the MW range. More details can be found in articles such as this one here: 23/

Ukraine in Darkness: Preventing the Worst-Case Scenario for Its Energy SystemCompared to the energy system’s resources available before the Russian invasion, Ukraine now has only a quarter of its production capacity. Insuf …https://www.forum-energii.eu/en/ukraine-destroyed-system
Although Ukraine is likely to stabilize the front line, addressing shortages of air defense, power generation, and improving Ukraine’s own strike capability should be a priority for the West as it may prove much more significant for the trajectory of this war. 24/ 

Norway:

Norway is providing an additional NOK 1 billion in funding for air defence in Ukraine 🇺🇦

Together with Germany 🇩🇪, we will donate a compete IRIS-T air defence battery to Ukraine this autumn 🚀

👉 More: https://t.co/1ofCIX5L3H#NATOSummit #IAAD pic.twitter.com/SWKo4XA0f4

— Forsvarsdepartement (@Forsvarsdep) July 11, 2024

Lithuania:

🇱🇹 continues to provide military assistance to 🇺🇦

Today anti-drones, 5.56x45mm ammunition & folding cots have been delivered to @GeneralStaffUA

Lithuania’s support to Ukraine is long-term & amounts to €1 bn

🇱🇹 will keep this momentum going – until victory ✌️ pic.twitter.com/JPZTudkTN1

— Lithuanian MOD 🇱🇹 (@Lithuanian_MoD) July 11, 2024

Canada:

Canada will provide a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at CAD 500 million.

This package will strengthen our warriors on the battlefield.

Thank you, Canada, for your unwavering support!
Together, we will win!
🇺🇦🤝🇨🇦 pic.twitter.com/yKFbNLXGid

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 11, 2024

Denmark:

Denmark is the first NATO country to directly finance Ukrainian production of arms and ammunition.

The first donation of 18 Bohdana artillery systems financed by Denmark is expected to be delivered within the coming months.

We are grateful to our Danish friends for their… pic.twitter.com/rDQkrYMsfX

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 11, 2024

Holland:

The Netherlands is purchasing more than €300 million worth of ammunition for the F-16s.

We are grateful to our Dutch friends and partners from @defensie for this important decision.
Thank you for your co-leadership in the Air Force Capability Coalition and the previously… pic.twitter.com/57wCrYLo3U

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 11, 2024

The Netherlands is purchasing more than €300 million worth of ammunition for the F-16s.

We are grateful to our Dutch friends and partners from @defensie for this important decision.
Thank you for your co-leadership in the Air Force Capability Coalition and the previously announced decision to donate 24 Dutch F-16s to Ukraine.

F-16s will definitely strengthen the defense of our cities and the capabilities of 🇺🇦 defense forces in the air.
🇺🇦🤝🇳🇱

The US:

Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine. (PDA) package of $225 million.https://t.co/C7ZKF9uYsb

P.S: This is an impressively low estimated cost for a package that includes an entire Patriot battery. pic.twitter.com/3ZCBH3Hg8X

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 11, 2024

Estonia:

“But the war in Ukraine and our response to it also determine whether NATO is credible. Whether it is also acting as deterrence for Russia. Why we don’t have a war in NATO countries is because Russia is not taking up that fight. Why Ukraine is having this war is because they are… pic.twitter.com/67XLQtQFn4

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 11, 2024

“But the war in Ukraine and our response to it also determine whether NATO is credible. Whether it is also acting as deterrence for Russia. Why we don’t have a war in NATO countries is because Russia is not taking up that fight. Why Ukraine is having this war is because they are in the gray zone. They are not under NATO’s umbrella,” – Kaja Kallas.

@kajakallas is convinced that Ukraine should become a member of NATO if the Alliance wants to get rid of conflicts and “gray zones” in Europe.

Kharkiv:

A man carries water home through the pitch-black darkness of a Kharkiv night. Today, we had more power outages than hours with electricity. pic.twitter.com/MvaPPBKNgL

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) July 11, 2024

In two months (since May 10, when the Russian offensive on Kharkiv began), Russians killed 125 civilians, including 4 children, in Kharkiv region with missile and bomb attacks.

772 people, including 42 children, were injured – head of Kharkiv region police via Suspilne.… pic.twitter.com/8ax14ywHwG

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 11, 2024

In two months (since May 10, when the Russian offensive on Kharkiv began), Russians killed 125 civilians, including 4 children, in Kharkiv region with missile and bomb attacks.

772 people, including 42 children, were injured – head of Kharkiv region police via Suspilne.

Evacuation of civilian population continues.

Russia strikes Ukraine from its own territory. Russians use a large number of airfields. They have airfields in Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk, Rostov regions. Not all of them are adapted for the use of strategic aircraft. For example, for Tu-22M3 or Tu-95MS aircraft, which are used to launch long-range Kh-101 and Kh-22 missiles, there is a limited number of airfields.

These airfields are Engels-2, Ukrainka (located several thousand kilometers from the border with Ukraine), Olenya and others.

‼️ These airfields are located several thousand kilometers from the border with Ukraine. If they are destroyed, the number of Russian attacks on Ukraine will drop dramatically. These are legitimate military targets for Ukraine.

Currently, Ukraine has restrictions on the use of Western weapons on Russian territory. The basic position on the use of weapons is the same – they can only be used in close range to Ukrainian internationally recognized borders.

Ukrainian Allies continue to search for a formula so that they are not accused of a direct attack on the Russian Federation. In fact, none of those who have transferred long-range weapons to Ukraine have yet clearly stated: “there are no restrictions except for international humanitarian law”.

The option of closing the skies over Ukraine was discussed, but it was also perceived as escalation.

Increasing Ukrainian air defense capabilities is an extremely necessary and overdue step. But this process is protracted, and the volumes of what we receive are insufficient. The logistics are such that it takes months to actually deliver what was promised. During this time, Russians will primarily destroy the remnants of Ukrainian energy system and the objects that could be protected otherwise.

Zuhres, Donetsk Oblast:

/2. Geolocation of Russian TOR attempt to shot down Ukrainian reconnaissance drone. 45km from the frontline. https://t.co/P3Fe0tqfa6 pic.twitter.com/COQP0j8Cbv

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 11, 2024

8 more Ukrainian children have been returned home to Ukraine:

“They beat me so hard that I started to lose consciousness. They tore people’s nails off, electrocuted, tortured and kept people in cages.”

Eight more children from the occupied territories have been returned to Ukraine. According to the Save Ukraine charity organization,… pic.twitter.com/doM3UxgI0H

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 11, 2024

“They beat me so hard that I started to lose consciousness. They tore people’s nails off, electrocuted, tortured and kept people in cages.”

Eight more children from the occupied territories have been returned to Ukraine. According to the Save Ukraine charity organization, children from 7 to 17 years old from the occupied part of Kherson and Donetsk regions are among them.

In total, the Save Ukraine team managed to rescue 405 children from Russia and the temporarily occupied territories.

📹: Save Ukraine

That’s enough for tonight.

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