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War for Ukraine Day 826: Air Raid Alerts Up Over Most of Ukraine

by Adam L Silverman|  May 29, 20248:09 pm| 17 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A screen grab of the air raid alert map of Ukraine from 7:13 PM EDT on 29 MAY 2024. Air raid warnings are up over almost all of central Ukraine from the eastern border with Russia to the central oblasts/regions.

(Air Raid Alert Map of Ukraine as of 7:13 PM EDT on 29 MAY 2024)

Quick housekeeping note: The girls are doing fine. Rosie is acting/being more her normal self than before she was diagnosed. Her next chemo treatment is on this coming Monday, which will be the first treatment of the second round. Until then there’s not much to report. Thank you all again very much for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations!

Also, it’s been a long couple of days, so I’m going to try to keep tonight’s update shorter.

As you can see from the map, most of Ukraine is under air raid warnings right now.

Kharkiv is being attacked as I write this:

Several explosions reported in Kharkiv! Right now, russian forces are attacking the night city with missiles!

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 29, 2024

As are several other oblasts and cities:

Currently, several oblasts of Ukraine are under attack by russian Shahed drones. Moreover, monitoring channels are reporting the takeoff of russian Tu-95 bombers, meaning that early this morning Ukraine is likely to be under massive missile attack.

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 29, 2024

The Tu-95 “Bear” bombers are what is most likely responsible for the air raid warnings being posted so far west.

Sumy Oblast was also attacked again earlier today.

Russians mount 17 attacks on border areas in #Sumy Oblast, killing and injuring civilians
🔗 https://t.co/XN48GescyZ#Druzhba #IOC #IOCmedia #Putyvl #RoadToParis2024 #Russia #SeredynaBuda #BBCBreaking #GBNews pic.twitter.com/xCo2RRLacR

— European Media News 24 (@europeanMedia24) May 29, 2024

From Ukrainska Pravda:

The Russian army launched 17 attacks on settlements in Sumy Oblast on 29 May. In total, 68 explosions were documented.

Source: Sumy Oblast Military Administration

Details: In the afternoon, the Russian army launched a missile attack on the Krasnopillia hromada [a hromada is an administrative unit designating a village, several villages, or a town, and their adjacent territories – ed.]. Two people are reported to have been killed. The number of people injured has risen to five.

One person was injured in a mortar attack in the Seredyna-Buda hromada, where three explosions were recorded.

In the Myropillia hromada, the Russians launched artillery attacks. Two explosions were documented. In the Esman hromada, there was a mortar attack (four explosions).

In the Shalyhyne hromada, Russia dropped 14 mines. The Russians attacked the Druzhba hromada using multiple-launch rocket systems (11 explosions). A mortar attack was recorded in the Putyvl hromada (17 explosions).

In the Velyka Pysarivka hromada, the Russians mounted attacks using UAVs (four explosions) and a mortar (eight explosions).

The Kyiv Independent also has details on yesterday’s attacks:

Russian forces attacked Sumy Oblast 81 times in 23 separate attacks throughout the day, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported on May 28.

The communities of Bilopillia, Khotin, Krasnopillia, Velyka Pysarivka, Berezivka, Seredyna-Buda, Novoslobidske, Putyvl, Hlukhiv, and Esman, were targeted.

Throughout the day, Russia assailed the border communities with mortar, drone, and artillery attacks, while also dropping explosives from drones onto a community.

No casualties or injuries were reported.

The town of Velyka Pysarivka, located about 3 kilometers west of the Ukraine-Russia border, experienced the bulk of the attacks reported with 19 explosions recorded in the area.

Given the town’s proximity to Russia, Velyka Pysarivka has become a main target of attack for Russia over recent months. Much of the community’s infrastructure has been destroyed by Russian attacks.

Russian strikes against Sumy Oblast have become increasingly destructive in recent months. Amid intensified attacks, Ukrainian authorities ordered increased evacuations from the region.

Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said on May 14 he expects Russia to launch a new attack in Sumy Oblast once the situation in Kharkiv Oblast stabilized, the New York Times reported.

Officials from Ukraine’s Border Guard service later said that Russia does not have enough troops on the Sumy Oblast border to launch a major attack on the region.

Shelling is a daily occurrence for the communities near Ukraine’s northeastern border with Russia, with residents in the region’s vulnerable border settlements experience multiple attacks per day.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

Russia Is No Longer in a Position to Disrupt the Global Peace Summit, Although It Is Trying Hard to Do So – the Address by the President

29 May 2024 – 20:29

Dear Ukrainians!

Today we are grateful to Sweden: there is a new and very significant military package for our warriors. It is a substantial reinforcement. Yesterday, on my way to Ukraine after my working visit, I spoke with Mr. Prime Minister Kristersson about both the situation on the battlefield and our current needs. We are working at maximum capacity to make our air defense system more effective, and Sweden is providing Ukraine with special radar surveillance aircraft; armored vehicles and ammunition are also part of this package. The whole package is worth almost €1.2 billion. Thank you, Sweden! It is one of our most principled partners, and it is thanks to Sweden that thousands of lives have already been saved in Ukraine.

Today I also received reports from the Commander-in-Chief, the Chief of the General Staff, and the Minister of Defense of our state on the current situation on the front, on our actions. Attention is being paid to all directions, especially the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions in the Donetsk region, as well as the Kupyansk and other directions in the Kharkiv region. I am grateful to each unit that is doing everything necessary to stabilize the situation on the front. We are also preparing for any further enemy activity – we clearly understand what tasks Putin sets for his army and for what purpose. We will respond to him – for sure. And we are also preparing our diplomatic responses to Russia’s attempts to undermine the Peace Summit, which begins in two weeks. Russia is no longer in a position to disrupt the summit, although it is trying very hard to do so. It is putting pressure on leaders, openly threatening various states with destabilization. And this is one of the consequences of the world giving the terrorist state too much time. Unfortunately, evil knows how to adapt, and now it is using its means to divide the world and prevent Russia from being forced into peace. But we already have almost a hundred states and international organizations joining us in this global effort.

Today I held a long meeting with all our officials involved in the preparations for the Summit. The team of the Office and the government officials were present – the Prime Minister and the Ministers; the Verkhovna Rada was also represented – the Chairman of the Parliament is now in contact with many countries through interparliamentary relations. I have given them the task of providing detailed information on an almost daily basis about the states that still need our work to attend the Summit and the states that have already confirmed their participation – to make the Summit as effective as it needs to be to bring real peace closer. I thank all the leaders who are helping! I am grateful to everyone in the world who is literally on the phone these days, in constant contact, in negotiations, so that this global format can become an example – an example of how the joint work of different nations of the world can restore the effectiveness of the UN Charter and force the aggressor into peace.

Today I spoke with the Prime Minister of Australia, and Australia has also confirmed its participation in the Summit. I also spoke with the UN Secretary-General about the preparations for the Summit, about how important it is for the UN system to be effective and for the UN to always be part of genuine peacekeeping efforts. And from now on, every day will be just as active in our international work for the sake of Ukraine – for the sake of our independence, our peace.

Glory to Ukraine!

Today, I had my weekly phone conversation with US @SecDef Lloyd Austin.

We discussed the current situation at the front.

Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported in detail about the situation on the battlefield.

I separately informed my American colleague about the mobilization…

— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) May 29, 2024

Today, I had my weekly phone conversation with US @SecDef Lloyd Austin.

We discussed the current situation at the front.

Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported in detail about the situation on the battlefield.

I separately informed my American colleague about the mobilization efforts and recovery of our combat brigades.

We continue to focus on the issue of air defense and ammunition.

russia continues to use guided aerial bombs along the entire front line. I also emphasized that Ukraine should have the right to strike enemy territory.

I am grateful to our American partners for their constant support.

Together, to victory! 🇺🇦🇺🇸

This is interesting:

A group of former high-ranking NATO commanders wrote an open letter with demands to provide Ukraine with maximum military aid and issuing the risks of Ukraine’s potential defeat on the battlefield. Main demands are in the thread below pic.twitter.com/T1832iWFzz

— SPRAVDI — Stratcom Centre (@StratcomCentre) May 29, 2024

Here’s the full text of the letter:

29.05.2024 13:59

Open Letter – Ukraine and Global Security

A group of former high-ranking NATO commanders wrote an open letter with demands to provide Ukraine with maximum military aid and issuing the risks of Ukraine’s potential defeat on the battlefield. Full text is in the text below.

As NATO’s 75th Anniversary approaches, we undersigned call upon Western leaders to urgently
deliver the military assistance needed to ensure that Ukraine can withstand the ongoing brutal assault from Russia, restore its sovereign borders, and build a strong democracy with a modernized military force that will deter future Russian aggression. Global security hangs in the balance.

Now into the third year of this illegal war, Ukraine’s ability to continue its successful defense against
Russian aggression and one of the largest militaries in the world is endangered. The ongoing reduction of Western assistance will leave Ukraine with no chance to withstand this existential struggle and the military defeat of Ukraine’s Armed Forces could happen within months.

Ukraine chose the path of democracy and rejected Russian authoritarianism with security assurances from Western partners that, if left unfulfilled, would represent a historic betrayal and the almost certain eradication of the Ukrainian people and their culture. Russia’s leadership does not hide its plans to destroy Ukraine as an independent state, which it previously attempted in the 1932-33 Holodomor that resulted in the deaths of millions of innocent Ukrainians. Hundreds of thousands more will die trying to defeat Russia’s current invasion, and millions will be forced to leave Ukraine and become refugees.

Despite this obvious tragedy, the consequences of the defeat of Ukraine will be much more serious to global stability and will imperil Western civilization. The reluctance and lack of courage by the West to support Ukraine will inevitably be perceived by other authoritarian regimes as an invitation to use military expansionism, resulting in other costly wars. Losing confidence in the U.S. as the leader of the free world, weaker states will seek to guarantee their security through arrangements with Russia and China. As European countries discover the fragility of NATO’s symbolic deterrence, they will also pivot away from American influence and seek alternate security agreements. This could lead to the demise of the Western Alliance and the proliferation of nuclear weapons.

The West can still act to avoid this perilous but highly possible outcome. Ukraine’s spirit is indomitable, and Ukrainians have proven repeatedly that they can effectively contain and defeat Russia on the battlefield, even in the face of Russian superiority in forces and means. Yet, the epochal threat posed by Russia cannot be answered with platitudes or hollow concepts. Rather, we call upon the leaders of all NATO states to immediately undertake the following actions:

  1. Unblock all military assistance to Ukraine, including the accelerated delivery of critical combat systems, innovative battlefield technologies, priority training efforts, and needed replenishment of Ukraine’s operational stocks of all scales of ammunition and spare parts.
  2. At the upcoming NATO Summit, announce NATO’s intention to support Ukraine until its sovereignty and territorial integrity have been restored, and provide Ukraine a pathway for accession to the Alliance.
  3. In the meantime, like the recent Estonian pledge, conclude bilateral long-term security agreements with Ukraine, which commit Ukraine’s Western partners to permanent military and technical assistance.

If, by the time of NATO’s 75th Anniversary, Western leaders have not committed to providing Ukraine the resources that it urgently requires, the betrayal of Ukraine will signal to Russia and other potential antagonists that the Alliance lacks the strategic commitment, internal fortitude, and collective will to defend the sovereignty of its member nations. For Ukraine’s survival and NATO’s continued relevance, there is no substitute for a Ukrainian victory.

General Sir Alexander Richard David Shirreff, Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe (2011-2014)
General Riho Terras, Chief of Defense of Estonia (2011-2018)
Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, The U.S. Army Europe Commander (2014-2017)
Lieutenant General Mark Phillip Hertling, The U.S. Army Europe Commander (2011-2012)
Major General Michael Repass, The U.S. Special Operations Command Europe Commander (2010-2013)
Major General Riho Ühtegi, The Estonian Special Operations Force Commander (2012-2019)
Bundeswehr Brigadier General (ret.) Klaus Wittmann
Janusz Onyszkiewicz, Minister of Defense of Poland (1992-1993, 1997-2000).

Sweden:

Sweden announced a new military aid package to strengthen Ukraine’s air defense. It’s the largest package from Sweden, valued at €1.16 billion.

The package includes ASC 890 Airborne Surveillance and Control aircraft, as well as Rb 99 AMRAAM missiles. Sweden will also donate its… pic.twitter.com/RA6hRXBDFA

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 29, 2024

Sweden announced a new military aid package to strengthen Ukraine’s air defense. It’s the largest package from Sweden, valued at €1.16 billion.

The package includes ASC 890 Airborne Surveillance and Control aircraft, as well as Rb 99 AMRAAM missiles. Sweden will also donate its entire stock of PBV 302 armored tracked personnel carriers and surplus tank vehicles from the armed forces.

We express our deep gratitude to our Swedish partners for their unwavering support! Your support is crucial for Ukraine’s fight for freedom.
🇺🇦🤝🇸🇪
@ForsvarsdepSv
@PlJonson

This is a really big deal!

A completely new capability to strengthen Ukraine’s collective air defence.

Read more: https://t.co/J2eOYlBPtz pic.twitter.com/0CSbXp3dHU

— Sweden in Ukraine (@SwedeninUA) May 29, 2024

From the Government Offices of Sweden:

Military support package 16 to Ukraine – new capability to strengthen Ukraine’s air defence and support to meet its prioritised needs

Published 29 May 2024

Today, 29 May, the Government is presenting its 16th and largest military support package to Ukraine to date since Russia’s full-scale invasion began. Sweden will provide Ukraine with a completely new capability to strengthen its collective air defence. The package, which will be part of an upcoming additional amending budget, amounts to SEK 13.3 billion and will meet Ukraine’s prioritised needs.

Ukraine’s needs remain immense and Russia is currently putting pressure on several fronts, intensifying its air strikes against both military and civilian objects. The Government will therefore provide Ukraine with another record military support package. Sweden’s support will contribute to strengthening Ukraine’s joint military capability.

Sweden will send Airborne Surveillance and Control aircraft (ASC 890) to Ukraine and thus strengthen its air defence capability. Sweden will donate its entire stock of armoured tracked personnel carriers (PBV 302) to support the reconstruction of new Ukrainian brigades. Sweden will also donate artillery ammunition and resources for maintenance of previously donated materiel.

Since Russia’s brutal war of aggression began in February 2022, Sweden has provided SEK 43.5 billion in support.

Air defence

The support package will include Airborne Surveillance and Control aircraft (ASC 890), which will provide Ukraine with a completely new capability against both airborne and maritime targets. Ukraine’s capability to identify and engage targets at long range will be strengthened. The package will also include a holistic solution that involves training, technical equipment and methodological support for air surveillance and command and control.

The donation will entail a temporary decrease of Sweden’s defence capability, which will be addressed by procuring additional S 106 GlobalEye aircraft and advancing previous orders for two new GlobalEye aircraft.

To further strengthen Ukraine’s air defence, the support package will also include the Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile (RB 99-AMRAAM), which can be used on aircraft and in ground-based air defence systems. The missiles will be redesigned to suit ground-based anti-aircraft systems. Meanwhile, Sweden will purchase new missiles to replace the donated ones.

Ammunition

Ukrainian field units are short on artillery ammunition. The package will include an addition of 155 mm artillery shells to increase Ukraine’s capability to combat Russian units in the depths of the battlefield.

The donation will entail a temporary decrease of Sweden’s defence capability, which will be addressed by procuring replacement grenades.

Strengthened reconstruction of new Ukrainian brigades

The Ukrainian army is organising a number of new brigades and therefore needs armoured vehicles for infantry companies. Therefore, Sweden will donate its entire stock of PBV 302, including spare parts, maintenance equipment and ammunition.

The donation will entail a temporary decrease of Sweden’s defence capability, which will be addressed by procuring replacement armoured vehicles.

Financial support, satellite communications, maintenance, tank vehicles and research

The 16th military support package will also contain the following:

  • Surplus fuel transport vehicles from the Swedish Armed Forces;
  • maintenance of previously donated Swedish materiel;
  • financial support to capability coalitions;
  • financial support to funds and temporary initiatives to enable swift and large-scale procurement of materiel to Ukraine;
  • in connection with the package, the Swedish Defence Research Agency will be tasked with supporting Ukraine in establishing its own defence research institute;
  • Ukraine’s command and control capability will be further strengthened in the package through a donation of terminals with subscriptions for satellite communications.

Apart from the aircraft, 🇸🇪Sweden gives us all of its Pansarbandvagn 302 IFV – all of them.

As far as I understand, Sweden has over 170 of them.

And also RB 99-AMRAAM missiles.

THIS. IS. ABSOLUTELY. BASED. pic.twitter.com/0v67SKfFMR

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 29, 2024

The Swedes are very clear eyed about the stakes and what is really on the line.

Air power experts have long pointed out that individual planes (F-16s) don’t equate to Western air power, which involves a broad suite of enablers & capabilities. In that regard, Sweden’s donation of an airborne early warning & control aircraft to Ukraine is very important. https://t.co/2IGWRRSShs

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) May 29, 2024

There has been some concern before about Russian access to Link 16 technology, though an AEWC platform isn’t going to be flying close to the frontlines. https://t.co/zjzH85jmVg

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) May 29, 2024

Countries that authorized use of their weapons against targets on Russian soil:

– Finland
– UK
– the Netherlands
– France
– Poland
– Czech Republic
– Estonia
– Latvia
– Lithuania
– Sweden
– Denmark
– Canada

Countries that have used nukes in response.

–

— Darth Putin (@DarthPutinKGB) May 29, 2024

So, as of now, about 10 European nations have officially stated that Ukraine can use weapons provided by them to strike legitimate Russian military targets in Russian territory, as per the very basic logic of fighting a war to win.

Will the U.S. administration and Berlin…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 29, 2024

So, as of now, about 10 European nations have officially stated that Ukraine can use weapons provided by them to strike legitimate Russian military targets in Russian territory, as per the very basic logic of fighting a war to win.

Will the U.S. administration and Berlin continue to stubbornly adhere to artificially imposed restrictions that make no sense and, moreover, directly undermine the possibility of what we all do this for — a Ukrainian victory, the prevention of Russia’s continuing aggressive military expansion in Europe and the coming of just and stable peace?

That is the question.

Germany seems to have provided a muddled answer:

“After months of griping at western capitals barring Ukraine from using their weapons to strike back against targets inside Russia, last night brought a major breakthrough as French President Emmanuel Macron bowed to Zelenskyy’s request, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz voiced… https://t.co/oOvtBFqHv9

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 29, 2024

“After months of griping at western capitals barring Ukraine from using their weapons to strike back against targets inside Russia, last night brought a major breakthrough as French President Emmanuel Macron bowed to Zelenskyy’s request, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz voiced his agreement.”

…

“Scholz, who has been one of the most reticent western leaders on this issue, said Ukraine had every right ‘under international law’ to hit targets in Russia in order to defend itself.”

Important shift by Olaf Scholz:

A person “familiar” with the German gov’s position confirms to POLITICO’s Berlin Playbook that the Chancellor did indeed mean with yesterday’s remark that Ukraine could strike back with Western weapons on Russian soil.https://t.co/yQtt7Ncfs3

— Hans von der Burchard (@vonderburchard) May 29, 2024

Politico EU has the details:

BERLIN — The German government is cautiously ditching its reservations about allowing Ukraine to hit military targets inside Russia with donated arms.

On Tuesday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Ukraine could use German-supplied weapons “within the framework of international law,” which would allow them to be used against an aggressor like Russia, including inside Russian territory.

That wasn’t quite as clear as other countries have been on the topic.

French President Emmanuel Macron, who spoke alongside Scholz on Tuesday, said: “We have to allow [Ukrainians] to neutralize the military sites from which the missiles are fired, but not other civilian or military targets,” adding a limit that’s not in line with what Kyiv wants.

Other countries leave even less ambiguity.

“Polish weapons sent to Ukraine have no limits. Ukrainians can use them as they see fit,” Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk said in a Polish radio interview.

Berlin moved on Wednesday to clear up confusion about what Scholz meant to say.

Scholz’s spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit told reporters that Ukraine’s “defensive action is not limited to one’s own territory, but [can] also be expanded to the territory of the aggressor,” while also stressing that he could not reveal precise agreements with Kyiv on using German weapons as they are “confidential.”

Hebestreit further argued that a year-old statement by Scholz, in which he said there was a “consensus” that Ukraine would not use German weapons on Russian soil, had been “a statement of facts” that was true at that moment but did not necessarily apply to the future.

A person familiar with the German government’s position also said that Scholz was in favor of allowing the use of Western weapons against targets inside Russia, without going into detail.

“I find it strange,” Scholz told reporters on Tuesday, “when some people have discussions and say that they [the Ukrainians] are not allowed to defend themselves and take measures that are suitable for this.”

Well that’s clear as mud.

The real issue here is going to be what happens with US weapons systems, weapons, and munitions/ammo. The US has end use agreements in place with the states we do direct MIL-MIL sales and transfers, State Department authorized sales from US defense contractors, and Commerce Department authorized sales for dual use items. Those end use agreements often have prohibitions about under what circumstances US produced defense material can be transferred and used. We will now have to wait and see what the US, and US here means the Biden administration, in terms of whether it joins the ever growing list of its allies and partners and whether it allows US produced defense material that those allies and partners have transferred to Ukraine to be used by the Ukrainians to strike targets in Russia.

Vovochansk, Kharkiv Oblast:

20 days after the beginning of the Russian invasion of northern Kharkiv, the center of #Vovchansk remains under Ukrainian control … and Russia destroys it house by house. pic.twitter.com/X6VPfgFgtV

— Julian Röpcke🇺🇦 (@JulianRoepcke) May 29, 2024

The left bank of the Dnipro:

The occupiers tried to cross the Dnipro and received a “warm welcome” from the warriors of the 79th @DPSU_ua detachment. pic.twitter.com/JwW9pMYf4s

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 29, 2024

Russian occupied Crimea:

Follow us on other channels; support our work: https://t.co/ZFU6CGgMON

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) June 5, 2023

Kharkiv Oblast:

Maxim Tucker of The Times via the Thread Reader App:

In Kharkiv for @thetimes, I encountered an astonishing act of heroism by ‘Drago’ (L), a 24 yr-old special forces officer in Ukraine’s Kraken Detachment. He was awarded a medal for valour for extraordinary actions while holding the Russians for 16 hours at the village of Krasne…Image
Elite Russian Spetznaz had crept into his unit’s rear, he told me: “You could see how professionally and well co-ordinated they were working; it was high-level stuff. They had the latest-model Kalashnikovs and night-vision devices. They covered their movement by accurate fire.” 
Drago was recovering from concussion and second-degree burns at Kraken headquarters in the bombed-out city of Kharkiv as he described his encounter with Russia’s feared special forces. 
Plumes of smoke trailed into the sky above the city as he spoke, marking the aftermath of a Russian air raid on a factory. 
Putin failed to take Kharkiv in the early months of the war and his forces now appear determined to raze the city. Once home to 1.5 million mostly Russian-speaking inhabitants, today it is scarred by flattened apartment blocks and university buildings riddled with shrapnel.Image
Drago and his men had been watching Russian troops massing across the border since last month, powerless to hit their supplies and ammunition with a pre-emptive strike because of a US prohibition on the use of long-range American missiles on Russian soil.Image
“There were a lot of Russians gathering, we could’ve destroyed them coming in but we don’t have many ATACMS and we have a ban on using them there,” he said, shaking his head as he discussed the casualties the US policy cost his unit. “We had to wait for them to cross the border.” 
When the Russians did move into the Kharkiv region, they ran straight into his First Assault Company, specialist night fighters under the command of Ukraine’s military intelligence, HUR. Along with other special forces fighters, they had been redeployed from the Donbas region.Image
The clash triggered a day-long gun battle between elite soldiers at the village of Krasne as the Russians pressed their new offensive against Ukraine’s second-largest city.Image
This account is based on a Kraken commander’s report, Drago’s testimony, and the HUR rationale for awarding him the Order for Courage medal, presented by Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, for “bold and decisive actions in a tactically unfavourable situation”.Image
Russian artillery had opened up at 3am, covering the movement of small groups of specialised infantry. The Spetsnaz bypassed Ukraine’s defensive strongpoints at night, looping back to encircle the Ukrainian troops who held them. 
“They came through the marshes and the trees, almost unnoticed by our attack drones,” said Drago, who was encouraged to join the special forces during his training with the British military last summer.Image
“The adjacent units were newly formed, people who had no combat experience yet. They were next to us, trying to hold the line of defence, but the enemy, consisting of 20 people, came to our rear.” 
Drago tried to shoot his way out of the trenches, but the Russians tossed in grenades, igniting the wooden fortifications and burning both his legs. With the enemy in front and his trenches on fire, the situation seemed hopeless. He called in artillery fire on his own position. 
“It worked. The artillery killed at least three of them and they dropped back. Then our back-up group arrived with machinegunners,” he said. This second team of eight Kraken soldiers tried to provide covering fire from a treeline.Image
But working methodically, the Russians took out their machinegunners. One was killed outright; the other was wounded, shot in the lung and coughing up blood. “At first my mind went empty. It felt so hard to see my friend lying dead on the ground,” he told me: 
“I was drained and devastated that the guy who came here to save us had died.” The men who had been hit were his friends from civilian life, bonded closer by two years of war together. 
“I was trying to pull myself together. I realised I have to be patient, to calm down, and I need to save my other friend’s life.” Drago clambered out of cover to reach the wounded gunner, dragged him into a trench and managed to dress his wound and stabilise him. 
Then he was caught by another grenade and concussed as he called for casualty evacuation. He lost his rifle in the blast, so grabbed a Kalashnikov from a dead Russian and fought on. 
The Russians arrived inside the first dugout, starting a shootout at a distance of only 5m from the second dugout. Drago’s group killed at least two of them. 
The second group of three fell back to another area where the evacuation vehicle was arriving. Badly wounded, Drago and his second group could not make it there before it was forced to leave under heavy fire. 
He called in a second vehicle but the Russians were already in the Ukrainian trenches and the driver could not tell where to go to evacuate Drago and his men. In plain sight of the Russians, Drago decided to stand up over the parapet to signal his position, ignoring the bullets. 
Ordering the driver to park with one hand on the steering wheel and the other firing his rifle at the enemy, Drago covered the evacuation with a smoke grenade, then dragged the wounded machinegunner into the back of the vehicle. 
By the time they pulled away, the Kraken teams had held the Russians at Krasne for 16 hours, buying crucial time for more Ukrainian special forces and assault brigades to take up positions at the village of Lyptsi, where they are fighting fiercely to hold on to high ground.Image
Their task has been made more difficult, HUR officers say, because the US has still not given the go-ahead to use long-range weapons such as ATACMS on Russian soil, despite Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, hinting at lifting those restrictions. 

Donetsk Oblast:

/2. Pieces of RPG-7 munition found on the site of the strike in Donetsk https://t.co/zKnm7lUpd2

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 29, 2024

Tatarigami and his Frontelligence Insight team have a new assessment up regarding the rail line Russia has been constructing between Burne and Malovodne. From the Thread Reader App:

The Frontelligence Insight assesses that Russia is very close to launching the new railroad line between Burne and Malovodne (Donetsk Oblast), likely within weeks or days. The satellite imagery confirms limited train movement

Before proceeding, please like and share

Thread🧵:Image

2/ The construction of an 80km railroad in Donetsk Oblast, approximately initiated around June 2023, aimed to establish a direct link between occupied southern Ukraine and the rest of Russia as a partial alternative to the Crimean Bridge.Image
3/ According to Mariupol mayoral advisor Petro Andriushchenko’s statement on May 8th, operations are expected to commence by late May or early June. Additionally, in April and early May, three test trains traveled from Volnovakha in Donetsk Oblast to Mariupol’s port and back.Image
4/ Based on mid-resolution imagery, it’s evident that on May 24th, at least one train was traveling on the new railroad. With the aid of satellite imagery captured with a time gap, we confirmed that the train was in motion and not static.Image
5/ The current resolution does not allow us to determine whether it was another “test” train or if it’s a train involved in railroad construction. However, based on other high-resolution imagery, we assume that this is the very final stage before its launchImage
6/ Our team assesses that this new railroad would suffice to supply the region even if the Crimean Bridge is destroyed. Additionally, the railroad reduces travel time from Russia. For more details on the impact and deeper assessment, refer to our latest report on our website 

7/ Thank you for reading. You can aid us with visibility by liking and sharing the opening message of the thread. You can also help with small donations or opt for a premium subscription to access more exclusive materials.

Tatarigami_UA is All Source Public IntelligenceSatellite imagery and other expenses https://buymeacoffee.com/frontelligence

The Kupyansk front:

/2. The unknown technology worked as the cable ferry – a rope was stretched between two Russian positions and Russians pulled this bathtub from one side to another. Using this device Russians exchanged supplies and ammunition between two positions. https://t.co/wByWGeJHbG pic.twitter.com/AO6byLcLtU

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 29, 2024

FPV attacks Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS from behind. Kupyansk front. https://t.co/6yUDJp716u

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 29, 2024

Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

Russian BUK M1 air defence system. As claimed by the source it was destroyed by FPV drone 20km south from Melitopil, Zaporizhzhia region. Which is 100 km from the frontline. https://t.co/hrg8yb9zSV pic.twitter.com/Os1xYFjXqD

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 29, 2024

Urozhaine front:

Repelling of the yesterdays Russian attack on Urozhaine front. https://t.co/jkfG08mNRs https://t.co/GFZpIr998E pic.twitter.com/gkhy1HVFf0

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 29, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

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♬ som original – 𝙫𝙞𝙘𝙠𝙞𝙚★

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

Is this how daytime naps work for everyone?? 🥱🫨 #песпатрон

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 826: Air Raid Alerts Up Over Most of UkrainePost + Comments (17)

Jamie Raskin: How to Force Justices Alito and Thomas to Recuse Themselves in the Jan. 6 Cases

by WaterGirl|  May 29, 20245:35 pm| 49 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics, Supreme Court, Supreme Court Corruption

Gotta love our constitutional scholars!

A bit of background on Jamie Raskin before we get to Jamie’s (we’re on a first-name basis, dontcha know) Guest Essay Opinion piece in the New York Times today.  (Suddenly everyone skips past this article?)

Jamie Raskin: How to Force Justices Alito and Thomas to Recuse Themselves in the Jan. 6 Cases
Such a cute picture of Jamie.  Has he ever been through a lot since that photo was taken in 2019. We are lucky he is still here fighting with us.

Raskin Embraces Role As Constitutional Scholar  (The Hill, 2019)

Rep. Jamie Raskin, the often-disheveled former constitutional law professor, has carved out one of the most important roles in the House as Democrats contemplate their investigations of President Trump in the wake of the Mueller report.
The Maryland Democrat serves on two key committees — Judiciary and Oversight and Reform — that are central in the Democrats’ budding probes. He’s also secured a seat this term on the powerful Rules Committee, which shapes every piece of legislation just before it hits the floor.

Perhaps most importantly, Raskin is a member of Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) leadership team, which frequently leans on him when the discussion turns to complex questions surrounding the Constitution — and the accusations that Trump is flouting it.

It is, by Raskin’s own admission, not the sexiest role on Capitol Hill. But in many ways, his life’s work studying the founding documents has made him a perfect fit for a divisive moment in American history.

“For me, everything comes back to the Constitution. … For most people, that’s unbelievably esoteric and dry. And for me, it’s spellbinding,” Raskin said in a long and wide-ranging interview in his office on Capitol Hill that took place just before the Department of Justice’s release of the conclusions of special counsel Robert Mueller’s report. “I love reading about the precedence of the House of Representatives. I love reading about Jefferson’s manual. And I love studying the rules of parliamentary procedure.”

Raskin’s role as constitutional consultant has been particularly prominent with Trump in the White House and Democrats probing a long list of controversies swirling around his tenure, such as whether the president has profited illegally from the office.
“I’m definitely not the most telegenic member. I definitely don’t raise the most money of the members,” Raskin said. “But I might be the one who’s most drenched in constitutional law and the rules of parliamentary procedure.”

Jamie Raskin: How to Force Justices Alito and Thomas to Recuse Themselves in the Jan. 6 Cases

Mr. Raskin represents Maryland’s Eighth Congressional District in the House of Representatives. He taught constitutional law for more than 25 years and was the lead prosecutor in the second impeachment trial of Donald Trump.

Gift Link

Many people have gloomily accepted the conventional wisdom that because there is no binding Supreme Court ethics code, there is no way to force Associate Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas to recuse themselves from the Jan. 6 cases that are before the court.

Justices Alito and Thomas are probably making the same assumption.

But all of them are wrong.

(more after the jump)

show full post on front page

Cutting to the chase in Jamie Raskin’s NYT opinion piece …

Everyone assumes that nothing can be done about the recusal situation because the highest court in the land has the lowest ethical standards — no binding ethics code or process outside of personal reflection. Each justice decides for him- or herself whether he or she can be impartial.

*snip

The U.S. Department of Justice — including the U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, an appointed U.S. special counsel and the solicitor general, all of whom were involved in different ways in the criminal prosecutions underlying these cases and are opposing Mr. Trump’s constitutional and statutory claims — can petition the other seven justices to require Justices Alito and Thomas to recuse themselves not as a matter of grace but as a matter of law.

The Justice Department and Attorney General Merrick Garland can invoke two powerful textual authorities for this motion: the Constitution of the United States, specifically the due process clause, and the federal statute mandating judicial disqualification for questionable impartiality, 28 U.S.C. Section 455.

*snip

The constitutional and statutory standards apply to Supreme Court justices. The Constitution, and the federal laws under it, is the “supreme law of the land,” and the recusal statute explicitly treats Supreme Court justices like other judges: “Any justice, judge or magistrate judge of the United States shall disqualify himself in any proceeding in which his impartiality might reasonably be questioned.” The only justices in the federal judiciary are the ones on the Supreme Court.

This recusal statute, if triggered, is not a friendly suggestion. It is Congress’s command, binding on the justices, just as the due process clause is. The Supreme Court cannot disregard this law just because it directly affects one or two of its justices. Ignoring it would trespass on the constitutional separation of powers because the justices would essentially be saying that they have the power to override a congressional command.

When the arguments are properly before the court, Chief Justice John Roberts and Associate Justices Amy Coney Barrett, Neil Gorsuch, Ketanji Brown Jackson, Elena Kagan, Brett Kavanaugh and Sonia Sotomayor will have both a constitutional obligation and a statutory obligation to enforce recusal standards.

Indeed, there is even a compelling argument based on case law that Chief Justice Roberts and the other, unaffected justices should raise the matter of recusal on their own (or sua sponte). Numerous circuit courts have agreed with the Eighth Circuit that this is the right course of action when members of an appellate court are aware of “overt acts” of a judge reflecting personal bias. Cases like this stand for the idea that appellate jurists who see something should say something instead of placing all the burden on parties in a case who would have to risk angering a judge by bringing up the awkward matter of potential bias and favoritism on the bench.

But even if no member of the court raises the issue of recusal, the urgent need to deal with it persists. Once it is raised, the court would almost surely have to find that the due process clause and Section 455 compel Justices Alito and Thomas to recuse themselves. To arrive at that substantive conclusion, the justices need only read their court’s own recusal decisions.

Last paragraph of the opinion piece (looks to me like Jamie is throwing down the gauntlet)

But the Constitution and Congress’s recusal statute provide the objective framework of analysis and remedy for cases of judicial bias that are apparent to the world, even if they may be invisible to the judges involved. This is not really optional for the justices.

I look forward to seeing seven members of the court act to defend the reputation and integrity of the institution.

Read the whole thing!

And before you say “one neat trick”, remember that Jamie Raskin is a constitutional scholar, and I would bet that he knows whereof he speaks.

 

Jamie Raskin: How to Force Justices Alito and Thomas to Recuse Themselves in the Jan. 6 CasesPost + Comments (49)

OAS – Old Asshole Syndrome

by @heymistermix.com|  May 29, 20244:44 pm| 105 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

OAS - Old Asshole Syndrome

It’s an unfortunate fact that, as they age, a lot of men become even bigger assholes than they were when younger.  Case in point, Richard Dreyfuss:

Appearing at the Cabot theatre in Beverly, Massachusetts on 25 May, Dreyfuss took to the stage in a house dress to a background track of Taylor Swift’s Love Story, shaking his hips suggestively and brandishing his walking stick like a baseball bat.

He then reportedly took on targets including Barbra Streisand, the parents of trans teenagers and the Academy’s new inclusivity rules.

No transcript of the event has been released, but social media posts suggest that he called Streisand a “genius” but that he didn’t listen to her as she was “a woman, and woman shouldn’t have that power”.

Deadline reports that he also said “you shouldn’t be listening to some 10-year-old who says they want to be a boy instead of a girl”. The Boston Globe reports that he continued by saying that allowing such young people to transition “was bad parenting and that someday those kids might change their minds.”

Anyway, I never liked him, but I thought he was a standard-issue moderate whose big cause was civics education.  I guess a combination of age, #MeToo, an overdeveloped sense of entitlement, a loss of relevance and Fox News caused the worms in his brain to go into overdrive.  I blame Trump, but I don’t think Trump suffers from OAS, just simply AS.  Still, other old men look at Trump and think, “Why am I holding back?  I have so much wisdom to share with the world.  Let me start by putting on a dress.”

The picture is a screengrab of this ridiculous person from a YouTube video taken by an audience member.

OAS – Old Asshole SyndromePost + Comments (105)

No Time For a Holding Pattern (Open Thread)

by WaterGirl|  May 29, 20241:13 pm| 201 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics

Whatever the outcome of the jury deliberations in the NY trial, life is going to go on, so we may as well get started now.

What else is happening that’s important in the political sphere?

Open thread.

No Time For a Holding Pattern (Open Thread)Post + Comments (201)

Trump’s NY Criminal Trial, Day 22 (Jury Instructions)

by WaterGirl|  May 29, 20249:54 am| 244 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

It’s Day 22 of the trial.

Jury Instructions.  And then, it seems, jury deliberation will begin!

Not much more to say about today than that, at least until we begin to hear what the instructions are.  But we are going to learn a lot today about what the jury can and cannot consider.

But first, can we talk about yesterday?

I only managed to listen to the 30-minute Lawfare podcast about yesterday’s proceedings.  Interestingly enough, they graded the defense – everyone but Ben Wittes gave the defense a B-, and Ben gave the defense a B+ – but they did not give a letter grade to the prosecution.  They thought the first 90 minutes were brilliant, and in fact thought that any given 15 minutes were brilliant, but they were super cranky about how long the whole thing was.

Anna Bower reminded everyone that you can’t know what’s going on in any juror’s head.  She mentioned one juror that “always looks bored” and then added “but that’s just his face”.  I got a laugh out of that!

Josh Kovensky (TPM)   live blogging

Tyler McBrien (Lawfare) on twitter

After what feels like no time at all, I’m back at 100 Centre St with @AnnaBower and @katherinepomps for jury charges and deliberations in Trump’s NY criminal trial.

We haven’t yet seen the finalized jury instructions, so I’ll be here live tweeting it all for @lawfare 🧵⚖️ pic.twitter.com/FgU3FvCAsJ

— Tyler McBrien (@TylerMcBrien) May 29, 2024

Anna Bower (Lawfare) on twitter

Good morning from 100 Centre Street, where it’s DELIBERATION DAY in Donald Trump’s criminal trial on 34 felony counts for falsification of business records.

Could today be the day that 12 New Yorkers decide the fate of the former President?

Follow along as I live tweet ⬇️👇 pic.twitter.com/2svzVFWN6P

— Anna Bower (@AnnaBower) May 29, 2024

Adam Klasfeld on twitter

Good morning from New York.

After a Manhattan judge delivers his instructions, a jury of Trump’s peers will begin a historic process: deliberations to determine whether to convict a former U.S. president of felonies.

As always, I will be reporting live from the courtroom. 🧵

— Adam Klasfeld (@KlasfeldReports) May 29, 2024

 

AP Live blogging

Last day for awesome guy who carries this sign.

Trump’s NY Criminal Trial

Open thread.

Trump’s NY Criminal Trial, Day 22 (Jury Instructions)Post + Comments (244)

Wednesday Morning (Atypically Cranky) Open Thread: We’re Surrounded by *Idiots*!

by Anne Laurie|  May 29, 20247:48 am| 198 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Open Threads

I'm telling you, non-engaged voters literally don't believe these are the candidates and are still considering this election to be hypothetical. https://t.co/QJfQAlP9TG

— Alito Vexillological Apologetics Society (@agraybee) May 28, 2024

Since the One Topic of the Day is bound to be TFG’s courtroom theatrics, I’m gonna let my curmudgeon flag fly…

And replacing Thomas, Alito, and Roberts when they "retire."

— Nefarious Means (@MeansNefarious) May 28, 2024

Gonna be darkly funny watching all these writers who have spread non-stop anti-Biden propaganda for the last 7 months (or in some cases *three years*) have their "oh shit" moments this summer and start telling everyone they need to vote for him anyway https://t.co/AkM1fkvwus

— Swann Marcus (@SwannMarcus89) May 29, 2024

“Life is more affordable for me, I just assume it’s terrible for everyone else because that’s what I see on media and social media, which I trust.”

This is it. This is the median voter. This is the explanation for the vibecession. https://t.co/G9W0KE0wFB

— Will Stancil (@whstancil) May 28, 2024

show full post on front page

If a republican was President over this exact same economy, Democrats would be told not to even bother participating in the 2024 election and to just come back in 2028. https://t.co/S4VLvRAEi1

— Tim (@trouble_man90) May 29, 2024

"you're not allowed to claim credit for the good things you've done unless you have our permission" is the argument here. treat it with contempt

— Will Stancil (@whstancil) May 28, 2024

Tell me you have no idea how the nominations process works, the primary process works, or really how politics works. Like, exactly what magical device would you employ to replace Biden—without nominating Harris. Because I don’t even have to ask to know you don’t want her. pic.twitter.com/jCkMYW7P5s

— Jason Karsh (@jkarsh) May 29, 2024

For these people, "the poor get poorer" isn't a statement of fact, but a statement of faith, and what they want Biden to do is reaffirm their faith, even after Biden has objectively reversed the trend and made the poor wealthier. It's perverse and self-defeating

— Will Stancil (@whstancil) May 29, 2024

Speaking of idiots: ‘Former’ Trump press secretary Hogan Gidley!

Gidley: You talked about Judge Cannon earlier and you called her a Trump appointee. But you didn't characterize Judge Merchan as a Biden donor

Tapper: I think he gave like 35 bucks to buy a t-shirt pic.twitter.com/LwIpZDD8gB

— Acyn (@Acyn) May 28, 2024

Wednesday Morning (Atypically Cranky) Open Thread: We’re Surrounded by *Idiots*!Post + Comments (198)

When Reporting Is Really an Attempt To Control and Discourage You (Open Thread)

by WaterGirl|  May 28, 202410:41 pm| 58 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Things we do not know:

  • Who will win the presidency in November
  • Which party will control the House of Representatives in the next congress
  • Which party will control the Senate in the next congress
  • How the jury will vote in the trial in Justice Merchan’s court?
  • Whether everyone on the jury is acting in good faith

Things we do know:

  • Anyone who pretends to know any of the above is full of shit
  • A lot of “reporting” is simply an attempt to influence the outcome
  • We cannot control the outcome; we just have to do the work

This has been another episode of stay the course and do not fall into the trap of believing reporting that is not reporting at all.

Oh, and Henry says ‘hey’. He has important things on his mind, like whether you prefer him with shorter hair or longer hair.

Hodgepodge, Mishmash or Smorgasbord?

Also, ears or no ears?

Open thread.

 

When Reporting Is Really an Attempt To Control and Discourage You (Open Thread)Post + Comments (58)

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