Looks like we could use a new open thread.
And just a reminder, given everything going on in the US right now…
Open thread!
Primary Elections Open Thread Part II: The Primarying!Post + Comments (214)
by Adam L Silverman| 214 Comments
This post is in: 2020 Elections, America, Domestic Politics, Open Threads, Politics
Looks like we could use a new open thread.
And just a reminder, given everything going on in the US right now…
Open thread!
Primary Elections Open Thread Part II: The Primarying!Post + Comments (214)
by Adam L Silverman| 173 Comments
This post is in: 2020 Elections, America, COVID-19 Coronavirus, Domestic Politics, Economics, Education, Foreign Affairs, Healthcare, Open Threads, Politics, Silverman on Security
As a result of the novel Coronavirus and COVID-19, as well as the President’s and his administration’s failure to competently respond to it, the United States of May 2020, let alone November 2020, will be unrecognizable from the United States of January and February 2020.The novel Coronavirus and COVID-19 is going to scramble American politics, society, and economics. And possibly religion when someone who is not-Catholic and pregnant goes into a Catholic hospital because it’s the only health facility available and dies from Coronavirus because she can’t get an abortion. I’m not sure what the US will be come June, let alone November, but it is going to be unrecognizable to the US of the past two months.
Speaker Pelosi and Minority Leader Schumer have demanded that the President include a relief package for Americans who may become infected with COVID-19, become caretakers for those who do, and/or lose their employment or small businesses as a result of the novel Coronavirus. This includes paid sick leave and expanded unemployment assistance to keep dollars flowing so that Americans can pay their bills, which will also keep liquidity in the economy. NY Governor Andrew Cuomo has announced that he is going to submit a bill to the NY state legislature to provide paid sick leave to New Yorkers who are quarantined. I expect that as the novel Coronavirus spreads and the number of COVID-19 infections increase, that we’ll see more Democratic led states take similar action to what Governor Cuomo is undertaking and what Speaker Pelosi and Senator Schumer are calling for. I expect that most Republican led states, especially in the deep south (old Confederacy) and the border states that have been colonized by neo-Confederates will not. They’ll scream for Federal assistance and then do what they always do when it comes in – use it to plug other budgetary holes by creating a series of means and administrative tests that make it almost impossible for anyone to qualify.
But other changes are coming as well. One of the most difficult problem that universities have had in trying to do distance education is getting it to scale. As well as to overcome the real differences in effects between having in person access to the faculty in the classroom versus virtual access in a virtual classroom. As more universities and colleges transition to a virtual model to prevent transmission, I expect that we will see pressure build to maintain this transition once the crisis passes. And that pressure will come from administrators, boards of trustees, and state legislators for public universities as it will be cheaper. There will also be calls to maintain more of this capacity because it would open up opportunities for students who can’t afford the campus experience of tuition, fees, room, and board, but could afford a remote education. And this will eventually trickle down to high schools. I grew up on a university campus, have advanced degrees in four disciplines, and am now a recovering academic, so I can honestly say that if there is a way for money to be made by a university without having to pay for tenured faculty, administrators will support it.
You’re also going to see an increase in self directed social distancing. People will change their behavior regarding going to restaurants as they aren’t going to want to risk having someone they don’t know and can’t see preparing and handling their food and drinks. You’re going to see a similar issue at the grocery store as people are going to start avoiding the deli counter, the butcher and seafood counters, and the deli because they just are not going to risk having these products handled even by people in gloves and hair nets. Concerts, sporting events, religious services, and other group social events are going to be effected. Several sporting events have already announced that they will be played, but without onsite spectators. Japan is considering this for the upcoming summer Olympics. I have no idea what the Qataris are considering for the World Cup next year, but they are so far behind as it is, that who knows what they’re going to do.
The airline industry, the cruise ship industry, the travel and hospitality industries in general – all of them are going to go through serious upheaval. As will the nursing home, assisted living, and long term elder care industries. Risks of infections are always a threat in these facilities because the populations are those at highest risks. But now you’ve got people in Kirkland, WA screaming that their parents and grandparents are being sentenced to death because they’ve been quarantined in the nursing home that is suffering the outbreak. You’re going to see a similar problem in prisons and jails. Basically any place that people are housed for extended periods are going to be at risk for an outbreak. And the effects of an outbreak are going to force changes and reforms.
And we’re going to get a real time experiment of just how well or poorly the national, state, and local public health systems work when they are consistently underfunded or defunded. As well as whether a for profit health insurance and health care system can actually do what it has long claimed it can do: more effectively and efficiently provide care than governmental based system in the US could. I have my doubts, but Anderson is the man to keep us apprised of this.
By the time the election rolls around in November 2020, the United States is going to be a very different country – state, society, and economy – than it is today and has been for the first two months of 2020. The Democratic National Committee is already making plans for a virtual nominating convention. I doubt the Republican National Committee will because the President wants to have his spectacle, which is why he has made it clear they are going to keep doing rallies despite the negative follow on effects from CPAC. Pressure will build to make rapid changes to state election laws to either extend vote by mail/absentee voting for the November 2020 general election or go to complete vote by mail/absentee voting for it.
Anyone who tells you they know what is going to happen – politically, socially/societally, economically – between now and November 2020 other than the obvious of a widespread novel Coronavirus and COVID-19 outbreak and epidemic and the resultant political, social, and economic disruptions is talking out of their tuchas. All of the pressure and stress that builds up as a result of what is happening could provide the opportunity for the US to move in a far better direction in terms of social insurance; health care funding, access, and coverage; and sound social safety nets. Or it could provide the opportunity for even more regressive and reactionary policies and practices. Either way, a lot is going to change. How much and in which direction are the outstanding questions.
Open thread.
by Adam L Silverman| 109 Comments
This post is in: 2020 Elections, America, China, Domestic Politics, Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Politics, Silverman on Security
The really important fact about Erik Prince that is not mentioned in The New York Times reporting that he has been using retired US and British spies, presumably human intelligence offers (HUMINTers), to teach James O’Keefe’s Project Veritas employees to be more effective is not that Prince founded and used to run Blackwater, nor that he’s Secretary of Education Betsy DeVoss’s brother, nor that he’s very close with the President and others in the administration and the reelection campaign. The really important fact is that Erik Prince’s Frontier Services Group, the company of military contractors that he runs, is owned by DVN Holdings, which would ultimately make Prince its chairman. DVN Holdings is owned by Hong Kong investor Johnson Ko Chun and the Chinese International Trust Investment Corporation (Citic), which is a People’s Republic of China (PRC) owned investment fund. Johnson Ko Chun is also on the board of directors of Cambridge Analytica’s spin off Emerdata Ltd along with Rebekah Mercer, her sister Jennifer, as well as former senior officials from Cambridge Analytica. Emerdata is also still tied to the former Cambridge Analytica’s parent firm SCL Group.
The important fact that everyone keeps missing is that Erik Prince’s operations are funded by the People’s Republic of China. He is now their asset. If he is involved with O’Keefe’s merry band of political ratfuckers, then he is only involved so long as Xi and the PRC want him to be. The same goes for Emerdata. And anything else that Prince involves himself with. Despite having a long history of looting his own companies and skimming from his investors and backers, such as the Crown Prince of the United Arab Emirates, Prince’s financial backing from the PRC state owned Chinese International Trust Investment Corporation means that he works for the PRC and does so only as long as he advances their interests.
Xi and the PRC conduct their influence operations – from weaponizing diplomatic, information, economic, financial, intelligence, and legal power – as a form of 21st Century warfare very differently than Putin and the Russians do. Xi’s and the PRC are subtle and precise, where Putin and the Russians are brutish and imprecise. The role of Prince’s Frontier Service’s Group in advancing Xi’s One Belt, One Road initiative, which is definitely NOT in the United State’s strategic interests, is evidence of who is in charge in this relationship. Xi and the PRC call the shots. And while they might give Prince a lot of rope to conduct business in his usual dodgy manner, it should never forget that they are the hands on the end of that rope. If Prince is paying former intelligence officers to train Project Veritas employees who will then interfere in domestic politics in the US, then he is doing it because it suits not just his or his sister’s or the President’s purposes. He is doing it because it suits Xi’s and the PRC’s purposes. Who his paymasters are and how they exert control over their assets is the really important piece of information that everyone reporting on Prince’s connection to Project Veritas and commenting on the reporting is missing.
Open thread.
by Adam L Silverman| 218 Comments
This post is in: 2020 Elections, America, Domestic Politics, Open Threads, Politicans, Politics
On Wednesday night commenter dww44 posted that:
Mom is also sad because she cannot understand how we ended up, after such a promising start, with a 77 year old white man and a 78 year old one, both of whom if nominated and elected will be a year older at inaugaration.
I responded to that comment and several of you have either asked if it could be shared or lamented that it should be somewhere more easily accessible than a comment. So here is my response with a couple of minor tweaks:
We ended up here because of a combination of four things. The first is that Senator Sanders has been running non-stop for president since 2016. He never really stopped running when that election ended. This has allowed him to build a large organization to support his candidacy, keep his name recognition high, and mobilize his supporters. The second is Vice President Biden’s name recognition and connection to President Obama. The third is the sad reality of our news media, especially our political news media and how they frame and shape and weight things in a campaign. The fourth and final reason this happened is that the 2020 presidential election is not about Medicare for All or any other specific policy or plan. It is solely a referendum on the President. On whether he gets four more years and the Republic is fully transformed into a white Christian herrenvolk democracy where the rest of us are either considered white on sufferance – for instance Jews – or become some variant of second class citizens if not actual unpersons or whether a hard stop is placed on what he and his administration are trying to do. And because this is the reality of the campaign, and a good part of the context of it, the 2020 presidential election becomes a choice of either “more Trump” or “make it stop”. VP Biden, partially because of his connection to President Obama, partially because of his personal biography, and partially because of his ability to be really and genuinely publicly and privately empathetic and sympathetic personifies this choice.
The 2020 presidential election is really about whether the house (the US) will continue to be burned down by the President, his administration, the GOP, and the conservative movement or whether the fire will be put out, the structure assessed for damage, a determination made about what can be salvaged and refurbished versus what has to be thrown away and replaced with something updated and better. That’s what the election is about. The President obviously represents the arson and burn down the house side of the analogy. VP Biden, better than almost anyone, represents the put the fire out, everyone take a deep breath, assess the damage, and make repairs side of the analogy. Senator Warren, as impressive as she is and despite being the most competent person to oversee the assessments, repairs, and refurbishment, doesn’t convey this. Or, perhaps, she conveys this all too well and it scares far too many Americans, including Democrats. Senator Sanders, however, is the representation of someone who always thought the house was an eyesore and structurally unsound so he wants to accelerate the fire because he has this completely different idea of what should replace it.
The vast majority of Americans just want this administration to stop. Stop here means cease to be, go away, be replaced. They don’t want to have to pay attention every minute of every day to what the President, his administration, his party, and the conservative movement are doing because failure to do so could lead to a terrible outcome for them, their families, and their communities. Most Americans want to be able to go back to not paying attention to who is or is not president for days at a time; to not having to be hyper-vigilant regarding politics. They want the pain to stop. They want the horror to stop. That’s it. And for significant groups within the Democratic coalition they can’t afford to take a risk on revolution. Because they know that it isn’t easy and isn’t safe. And they know that it is always met with overwhelming resistance and pushback from those who want the US to be a white Christian herrenvolk. And that’s why VP Biden has reemerged this week despite his age and his baggage and his malapropisms and occasionally Munchausenian stories. It is why the people with the most to lose in the Democratic coalition who have been the coalition’s and the party’s back bone for decades are supporting VP Biden and rejecting Senator Sanders. And it is why for all that she would be the best of the three as president to actually clean up this mess, Senator Warren can’t get any traction.
The primaries aren’t over. Things may move in a different direction again. The novel Coronavirus and COVID-19, as well as the administration’s response are still outstanding factors that will significant political, economic, and social effects on the remainder of the primary and the general election.
Just remember to vote!
Open thread!
Taking Stock Post Super Tuesday: Why We Are Where We ArePost + Comments (218)
by Adam L Silverman| 209 Comments
This post is in: 2020 Elections, America, COVID-19 Coronavirus, Domestic Politics, Foreign Affairs, Healthcare, Open Threads, Politics, Silverman on Security
Here’s the live feed for the President’s scheduled 6:30 PM EST address this evening on the COVID 19 coronavirus.
I honesty don’t know what to expect from him tonight. Apparently the President is very angry with Dr. Nancy Messonnier, who is the career, professional infectious disease specialist leading the CDC’s response.
“It’s great to make emergency preparations, it’s not great to make predictions,” the official said.
— Eamon Javers (@EamonJavers) February 26, 2020
It doesn’t help that Dr. Messonnier is former Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein’s sister, which has set Rush Limbaugh and other supporters and surrogates of the President off on a variety of related conspiracy theories about how COVID19 is somehow a deep state conspiracy against the President. Which I’m sure makes all of seriously ill and dead people in dozens of countries feel much better.
I’m sure someone has recommended that the President be put on a script loaded into the teleprompter, kept as calm as possible, told to just go out and do the “just the facts ma’am” address about what is going on, and then turn it over to the medical professionals from the CDC and the NIH. But as is always the case with the President, there is no way to know whether we’re going to get a very subdued President who makes his way through a statement he clearly doesn’t want to make and then quickly leaves without taking questions or whether we’re going to get an unleashed President who doesn’t stay on script, opens up for questions, and then answers them however he feels like doing so. The former would be okay, the latter would create a whole series of new problems given the President’s and his administration’s well documented history of lying, presenting factually inaccurate information, and promoting conspiracy theories.
There are, however, a number of good quality sources for accurate information. Anne Laurie has been bringing us all an early morning round up of a lot of those sources – most of whom are medical professionals and researchers working on these issues. Here is the link to the CDC’s recommended guidance. And here is the link to the CDC’s updates on the COVID 19 coronavirus. Here’s one from The Washington Post that Cheryl sent me, as well as an excellent article from Foreign Policy she passed on as well. You should also give this article that Cheryl highlighted in a tweet yesterday a read too.
This article contains many good suggestions. It's mainly written for professionals in risk communication. Tips for the rest of us are in small print throughout, and at the bottom, under "What's working for us."
h/t @SellaTheChemist https://t.co/AQZHHuF7PO— Cheryl Rofer (@CherylRofer) February 25, 2020
A lot of the recommendations are the common sense ones that we all use for cold and flu seasons: wash your hands regularly, don’t touch your face, eyes, nose, mouth unless you’ve washed or sanitized your hands, if you’re feeling ill stay home if possible and contact your physician for guidance, cough and sneeze into a disposable tissue or the inside of your elbow (vampire sneeze or cough), if you are experiencing respiratory difficulties, seek medical assistances as soon as you can. And, of course, get a flu shot or the nasal mist. It won’t help with COVID 19, but it will provide some protection against the seasonal flu and potentially remove that as a potential medical issue for you. And, of course, the normal emergency preparations that we’ve posted about in regard to natural disasters apply: have a week to two week’s worth of non-perishable food, make sure your prescription and over the counter medicines are filled, make sure your home first aid kit is properly stocked, get plenty of rest, check reliable news sources, the usual.
Unfortunately, in terms of the official US response, we are in something of uncharted waters with the COVID 19 virus. The President is a known conspiracy monger who lies frequently and who has been more than happy to politicize public health and other potential national security issues for his own advantage. We all remember his helpful and thoughtful contributions to the US government’s response to ebola in 2014. It also doesn’t help that the President has overseen the degradation of the US’s ability to respond to a public health emergency by firing the National Security Staff members on the National Security Council who coordinate public health emergency and pandemic response, as well as cutting the CDC response teams and efforts by 80%. The President has also reduced US national health spending by $15 billion and eliminating the $30 million complex crisis fund, which would ordinarily be tapped to respond to something like the COVID 19 outbreak. Just as personnel is policy, so too is budgeting. What the President is and is not willing to fund is as much a determinant to what the official policy of the US is as who is hired to oversee and implement it and how it is officially delineated. It won’t matter a bit if the President delineates a strategy tonight to respond to the COVID 19 outbreak because the personnel and budgeting that the President have put forward would be trying to ask of that strategy that which no strategy could provide: ways and means that do not exist.
The President has repeatedly demonstrated that he doesn’t value intelligence. By this I’m referring to the product produced by the US intelligence community (IC), as well as other information coming from professional sources intended to enhance decision making. The purpose of intelligence is to provide timely, useful, and accurate information in a digestible format so that senior leaders and decision makers can make appropriate assessments of threats, challenges, and opportunities and the best decisions possible to deal with them. It is the role of senior advisors to provide the President what he needs to know, not what he wants to hear, based on the most timely and accurate information and analyses possible. And the President has also, repeatedly, indicated he doesn’t value this either. The firing of Vice Admiral Maguire as Acting DNI ten days ago is just the most recent example of this unfortunate reality.
If the President can be convinced to get out of the way and let the professionals at the CDC and the NIH and what is left of the US’s national public health officers corps do their jobs, let Congress quickly ramp up funding to allow these agencies to rapidly expand their personnel and operation, we might be okay. But if he cannot control his impulses, things are likely to be far rougher than they would need to be going forward. And even if he can contain himself, he can’t and won’t stop his surrogates and supporters spreading conspiracy theories that will make it much harder for the Federal, state, and local governments to respond.
We are off the looking glass and through the map.
Open thread.
The COVID 19 Coronavirus and the President’s RemarksPost + Comments (209)
by Adam L Silverman| 283 Comments
This post is in: 2020 Elections, America, Open Threads, Politics
Since Cole’s post of the picture of Steve has functioned as the first primary debate open thread, this makes this debate open thread sort of, kind of, the part 2 post. I don’t have a cat, but this guy or gal came to visit just outside my kitchen yesterday.
A neighbor on the HOA committee has checked around and he or she doesn’t seem to belong to anyone. She or he just saunters around, does his or her thing, and then goes on her or his merry way. She or he does have the M marking on the forehead, so there is some Maine Coon in there.
Open thread.
South Carolina Democratic Primary Debate Open Thread Part TwoishPost + Comments (283)
by Adam L Silverman| 44 Comments
This post is in: 2020 Elections, America, Domestic Politics, Foreign Affairs, Information Warfare, Open Threads, Politics, Russia, Silverman on Security
Last night I wrote that it was a problem that Senator Sanders sat on the information that Vladimir Putin was interfering in the Democratic primaries to elevate his candidacy for a month. That by waiting, by not finding a way to get the information released or even leaked in a manner that he could control to get ahead of the information, he placed himself at the mercy of someone else leaking it. Someone else did leak it. And that leak was not done to assist Senator Sanders or his campaign. By sitting on the information, Senator Sanders made himself vulnerable to the other two principal leaders who also had the information: the President and Vladimir Putin. Neither of whom wants Senator Sanders to be the nominee because they want him to become President. Rather the President wants Senator Sanders to be the nominee because he has determined that Senator Sanders will be the easiest of the Democratic primary candidates to defeat. Vladimir Putin wants Senator Sanders to be the nominee because he has assessed that Senator Sanders is the most likely to create chaos within the Democratic Party, which furthers his goal of seeing the President reelected.
As was easily predictable, the information is now being weaponized by the President’s surrogates.
National security adviser Robert O'Brien tells ABC in interview to air tomorrow that he hasn't seen any evidence of Russia seeking to help Trump. Asked whether Russia might be helping Sanders, he says reports could be credible. "That's no surprise. He honeymooned in Moscow."
— Josh Dawsey (@jdawsey1) February 22, 2020
Assistant to the President-National Security Advisor (APNSA) O’Brien’s statement clearing the President of suspicion, but reaffirming the negative information against Senator Sanders will just be the first of many. Expect the Acting DNI, Ambassador Grennell, to make similar statements. Likely backed up by further leaks and/or official disclosures. US intelligence will be weaponized to dirty up Senator Sanders by the political loyalists the President has placed in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. The narrative will be to tie the information that Putin is interfering in the primaries on behalf of Senator Sanders with Senator Sanders long history of support for hard socialist and communist leaders and officials in Central and South America, the Caribbean, Eastern Europe, and parts of Asia. This may not be fair, but this is what is going to happen.
This influence campaign, one which will be carried out not just by surrogates and supporters outside of government, but by actual appointed senior officials in the President’s administration like APNSA O’Brien has done with his statement today are not really intended to effect Senator Sanders’ core supporters. Nor is it really intended to influence the Democratic primary. What it is intended to do is create material for Facebook ads to micro-target more moderate Democrats, Democratic leaning Independents, and formerly Republican leaning Independents, as well as to provide material that can be weaponized to reach these same people on Twitter and other social and digital media platforms. The point of doing this will be to depress Democratic turnout, as well as the turnout of non Democrats that will be needed to ensure an Electoral College victory against the President should Senator Sanders be the Democratic nominee. It is also intended to effect down balance races to maintain the Republican majority in the Senate, flip the House majority back to the Republicans, and capture as many Democratic held governorships and state legislatures as possible before the next round of redistricting after the 2020 census.
I’m not writing this to harm Senator Sanders. I guarantee that there is a similar influence operation already planned for each of the potential Democratic nominees. Whichever Democrat gets the nomination is going to face something similar. We’ve been watching the operation against VP Biden for well over a year now. And we know, because I’ve put it on the front page at least eight times, that the seeds of that influence operation against VP Biden were first sown in 2o14. And that should be a concern to Senator Sanders, his campaign, his key surrogates, and his supporters because Senator Sanders has over 40 years of taking controversial, hard left positions and supporting some of the worst hard left, socialist, and communist leaders outside the US. And because the Soviet Intelligence Services were collecting video and audio on him the entire time he was in Soviet Russia for his honeymoon; video and audio that Vladimir Putin will weaponize if and when he feels the need too. And that’s before the President, his campaign, and his surrogates decide to juxtapose the now leaked intelligence that Putin is acting to aid Senator Sanders in the Democratic primary with Senator Sanders voting record regarding Russia – a voting record that leaves a lot to be desired. He voted against the Magnitsky Act in 2012, the sanctions against Russia in 2014 and 2017, and didn’t vote at all when the sanctions against Russia bill came up in 2019. This voting record combined with the now leaked intelligence that Putin is interfering in the Democratic primary on his behalf is all the President, his campaign, and his surrogates need to argue that the President is the one who has and will continue to stand up to Putin, not Senator Sanders who always votes in Putin’s favor. That’s not my argument, that is me anticipating the President’s argument.
This is the reality of the 2020 election. I warned everyone who reads Balloon Juice that the 2020 election was going to be open information warfare back in March 2019. What is happening should not be surprising to anyone. And if Senator Warren or Mayor Buttigieg or Senator Klobuchar were the front runners right now, we would have different weaponized information to produce influence being deployed against them right now. And if one of them should become the front runner, we will.
Open thread.