I honestly wonder if Putin’s coterie could even conceive of ousting him. https://t.co/owJm9mq7Ty
— Daniel W. Drezner (@dandrezner) February 27, 2022
A Boss like Putin, one does not simply oust. However, when in the course of mob-related events, a Boss should happen to become more of a liability than an asset… said Boss tends to have a shorter shelf life than the latest TikTok dance craze.
Slowly, and then all at once:
entirely a theory without proof but I have a suspicion russia’s propaganda network collapsing on itself almost overnight has a lot to do with everyone suddenly not getting paid
— kilgore trout, death to putiner (@KT_So_It_Goes) February 27, 2022
yeah the events themselves ABSOLUTELY have an awful lot to do with it but the entire operation just vanished almost instantaneously
anyway I want to be perfectly clear about this next part, I’m not an expert on this, and the experts have their facts correct. what I’m describing here is just guesses based off macro systems analysis and not number crunching. that said
I’ve read all the analyses that russia has enough independent side systems & cash reserves & alt-revenue to survive years with harsh sanctions. they all make sense. those analyses are *correct*. but I kinda think they miss a big piece of how systems actually work in meatspace
what would happen in meatspace with those cash reserves & side systems is: they will get heavily, heavily skimmed at each level by the entities moving the cash, because that’s how they operate now. they won’t just *stop* because they enter austerity
and level by level, when you start skimming heavily off a very fixed resource, the cash tumbling down to the next floor is reduced, probably at an even higher percentage due to panic skimming. the burn rate goes way up. so there’s less cash to begin with & it vanishes faster
when I read “they can last years” I keep thinking “yeah but can they?” because how long does it really take before cash stops moving to the most important low level: people who *actually do shit*? is it really years?
maybe it is! but rationally squinting at a kleptocracy entering austerity with a panic mentality…I don’t agree. i think it might only be weeks. no I can’t show my math, there is none. it’s just a hmmm are we sure they’re gonna be sure to pay the levels that keep society running?
Late Night Open Thread: What of the Minions?Post + Comments (58)