(Image by NEIVANMADE)
The Russians once again opened up on civilian targets overnight:
russian missile attack on apartment buildings in Avdiivka, Donetsk region.#russiaisaterroriststate pic.twitter.com/nUqiUdag8F
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 26, 2023
These attacks are actually acts of desperation because the war is not going Russia’s way in the Land Domain. They are intended to terrorize the Ukrainians and try to break their resilience. As terrible as they are I don’t think they will have the strategic effect Russia hopes for.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
You can’t be mentally far from the war, support our warriors whenever possible – address by the President of Ukraine
26 March 2023 – 23:55
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
Today our National Guard celebrates its day, and it will be right if we all thank the National Guardsmen together. For the way the National Guard, together with all our warriors, is powerfully fighting for Ukraine. For strength and courage in the battle for Donbas. For the defense of Bakhmut and Avdiivka. For the heroic defense of Mariupol and Azovstal. For the battles in the Luhansk region. For the battles in the Kyiv region, for the battle for Kyiv. Together with all the defense and security forces of Ukraine, the guardsmen ousted the occupier from the northern regions of our country, from the Kharkiv region. They are holding the line in the south, in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
Separately, I want to thank the Offensive Guard, which has already become an example of the exemplary formation of new brigades for the Ukrainian defense.
During the full-scale war, almost 5,000 National Guardsmen have already been awarded state awards – precisely for their participation in battles, for bravery, for resilience, and for the military results achieved by the National Guard. 32 warriors of the National Guard were awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine.
I thank all Guardsmen: soldiers, sergeants, officers, command! Thank you to everyone who helps the units of the National Guard, who trains soldiers, provides them with everything they need, helps with treatment after injuries, with rehabilitation.
The strength of Ukraine is the strength of all those who fight for Ukraine and who help the warriors. And it is simply impossible to imagine our state’s might without the National Guard.
Today there was a meeting with the military – a special military meeting, a special circle of participants. I also held meetings with the security sector, with intelligence.
Defense, reinforcement of our protection – both from external threats and from internal threats. We’re preparing respective steps.
Constantly, invariably, maximum attention is paid to the situation on the frontline. To the brutal battles that take the lives of our people every day and require constant mobilization of our state and society every day.
It is wrong, it is unfair, when our warriors who come from the front have the feeling that for many in the rear, the war is allegedly already over. For those who are not just far from the Donetsk region or Nikopol, from Saltivka, from the border areas of the Sumy region, from Zaporizhzhia… But who are mentally far from the trenches, from the daily pain of Ukrainians.
Now, just as it was a year ago, one cannot be mentally far from the war, although thanks to our soldiers, real hostilities are taking place geographically far from many. Now, just as it was a year ago, it is important that as many Ukrainians as possible help the defense of the state, help the accumulation of world support for our victory.
Fellow Ukrainians! Support our warriors whenever possible. Don’t forget about volunteers’ fundraising campaigns and join when you can.
It is very important for everyone who has informational influence to participate in informational work. This applies not only to journalists. This applies to everyone who can spread the truth about aggression. Who is capable of reminding the world about Ukrainian men and women who went through the occupation, through losses… About the fact that Ukraine is fighting for freedom and justice for our people and for all nations threatened by Russian tyranny. The world must hear as intensely as last year that the aggression against Ukraine continues. It must hear that ending the war already this year, liberating Ukraine from Russian evil this year is a joint task of the civilized world. Because civilized means, in particular, determined to defend civilization.
I met with the UNICEF Goodwill Ambassador Orlando Bloom and the UNICEF team – an organization engaged in humanitarian support and protection of children. Orlando Bloom has been working meaningfully in this direction for a long time. He has already been to Ukraine, in our Donbas, even before the full-scale war. And he knows what this aggression has brought, how full-scale the world’s efforts must be to stop it, to restore Ukraine after the war.
We discussed the issue of rebuilding our country, our school infrastructure. I appreciate this help. We agreed that our teams should work on several issues.
In particular, this is the issue of the return of our children who were forcibly taken to Russia, this is the creation of bomb shelters for our children. And the third is the technical support of distance education in those areas and regions where it is impossible to study offline due to relevant threats.
Today, as always, I will celebrate our warriors who gave a significant result to Ukraine over the past day, this day, and this week in general.
The 57th separate motorized infantry brigade, the 5th separate assault brigade and the 93rd separate mechanized brigade – well done, guys! Thank you for your strength!
The marines of the 35th and 36th separate brigades, the warriors of the 55th “Zaporiz’ka Sich” artillery brigade – all in the Donetsk region – thank you for being the best week after week!
I also want to celebrate today our warriors of the “North” operational and strategic group of troops, who protect the Sumy region and the Chernihiv region. This is the defense against attempts of subversive groups infiltration across the border, this is a cover for Ukraine from airstrikes, and this is a defense against the artillery of terrorists.
Thank you to all our anti-aircraft gunners of the “North”, to all those who protect our state border, to all those who, with their courage and accuracy, make the enemy learn that the Kremlin will not conquer Ukraine.
Glory to all our warriors who are in combat!
Gratitude to everyone who helps the defense!
Eternal memory and honor to all our warriors who gave their lives for Ukraine!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is the latest operational update from the Ukrainian MOD. It is a machine translation from their Telegram channel:
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Bakhmut based on the operational update above:
BAKHMUT CITY /1820 UTC 26 MAR/ This report is based on the 1800 [Kyiv] reports of the UKR Gen’l Staff. RU attacks on Ivanivske broken up. UKR says RU losses include 11 main battle tanks, 15 infantry fighting vehicles and upwards of 700 Russian troops Killed in Action (KIA). pic.twitter.com/duNNsjQGGz
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 26, 2023
The tank, the tank, the tank is on fire
We don't need no water, let the russian tank burn.
🔥 🔥 🔥🎥 14th Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/lZxzemGTXO
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 26, 2023
Making rounds in the Russian and Ukrainian internet today is an alleged leaked recording of a phone call between a notable Russian music producer Iosif Prigozhin (not Wagner's Prigozhin) and Farkhad Akhmedov, an Azerbaijani businessman and a former politician in Russia.
In this… pic.twitter.com/GY7imT62bM
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) March 26, 2023
Here’s the full text of Dmitri’s tweet:
Making rounds in the Russian and Ukrainian internet today is an alleged leaked recording of a phone call between a notable Russian music producer Iosif Prigozhin (not Wagner’s Prigozhin) and Farkhad Akhmedov, an Azerbaijani businessman and a former politician in Russia.
In this 35-minute call, both men who appear to be friends discuss the current affairs in Russia and slam Putin and Russian leadership, amply using curse words.
This segment pieced together and translated by us contains the juiciest parts. In the rest of the call, men complain about sanctions, which affected both personally.
While Mr. Prigozhin denied that this call happened and claimed it was a deepfake made using neural networks, he later commented by saying “Let’s start with the fact that there is such a thing as private life. People in a private conversation can talk about anything”, but stated he “couldn’t remember such a call happening.
The Russian audience does not appear as convinced, however – a poll ran by one prominent Russian separatist Oleg Tsaryov on Telegram showed 58% believed it was real, and only 13% thought it was a deep fake.
While the call is not informative by itself, if real, it could indicate the mood among some elites in Russia.
Looking understandably nervous, Iosif Prigozhin says the recording is an AI voice fake, by the way. pic.twitter.com/1M7mYbje62
— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) March 26, 2023
Here’s the full text of Rothrock’s full tweet:
Oh my. Ukrainian media releases alleged conversation btwn music producer Iosif Prigozhin (not to be confused w/ Evgeny) & billionaire, ex-Senator Farkhad Akhmedov (supposedly recorded a couple of months ago). Publicly pro-Putin, the two men tear him apart mercilessly here.
Both Iosif Prigozhin and Akhmedov, fairly prominent members of the Russian elite, are currently under sanctions. In this alleged conversation, they use a lot of obscene language, insulting Putin, Medvedev, Patrushev, Zolotov, Sechin, alleging a plot against Shoigu, and even insisting that Putin will pay for the disastrous war, for failing to develop the nation, for dooming Russia’s future generations, and more and more and more.
Here is a request from Hanna Malyar, Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Defense:
Ukraine’s Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Malyar claimed on social media that only three people had the right to disclose military plans publicly – the president, the minister of defence, and the commander in chief.
“All others can only quote them,” she wrote. “Please stop asking experts questions about a counter-offensive on the air, please stop writing blogs and posts on this topic, please stop publicly discussing the military plans of our army.”
So what do President Zelenskyy thinks, let’s go back to the BBC:
President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Ukraine’s counter-offensive against Russia cannot start until Western allies send more military support.
He told a Japanese newspaper he would not send his troops to the frontlines without more tanks, artillery and Himars rocket launchers.
In an interview with Yomiuri Shimbun, he said the situation in eastern Ukraine was “not good”.
“We are waiting for ammunition to arrive from our partners,” he said.
And when asked about the expected counter-offensive, he said: “We can’t start yet, we can’t send our brave soldiers to the front line without tanks, artillery and long-range rockets.”
He added: “If you have the political will, you can find a way to help us. We are at war and can’t wait.”
But President Zelensky is more pessimistic. He has often warned that the war could drag on for years unless Western allies speeded up the delivery of weapons. But this is the first time he has actually said the counter-offensive itself might be delayed by the lack of Western equipment.
His remarks reflect not only his desire to encourage more speed, but also his frustration at what he sees as the lack of haste.
Lawrence Freedman, a professor emeritus of war studies at King’s College London, has posted an analysis on Bakhmut at his substack:
Loud thunder but few raindrops
Chinese proverb
This proverb was used by Sergey Radchenko to describe the result of the much heralded Putin-Xi summit, which concluded on 22 March. It might also describe a general feature of Russia’s war. Much is promised with boasts and bluster but in the end the results are meagre – whether we are referring to attempts to persuade Western countries to stop supporting Ukraine or coerce Ukraine into abandoning the war, or Russia’s offensive operations. The costs, of course, of these failed efforts are anything but meagre. The losses and suffering caused by this war has been immense, which makes its utter futility even more egregious.
It also raises a question about how long Russia can keep this going. The conventional wisdom is ‘forever’ because this is Vladimir Putin’s war and he is firmly in power. Russia’s economy is ticking over and there are no signs of revolution in the air. The only way to bring this war to a conclusion, therefore, is by means of a successful Ukrainian offensive. This has also been my view for some time.
Yet my aim with these posts is not to predict, but to look at developments and trends and consider future possibilities that may not come to pass but are worth consideration. In this post I look at the possibility that Russia’s current offensive may fail – likely but not yet certain – and the implications of Putin having no obvious route to victory. It is in the context of this possibility that China’s peace plan needs to be viewed.
Why Russia’s Offensive Matters to Putin
Putin regularly professes a desire for peace but with the routine condition that everyone, including Kyiv, must first accept all the recent annexations (the oblasts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson), which they won’t. If Putin ever accepts that these annexations must be abandoned then he is in trouble back home. The right will be furious if it appears that he is prepared to surrender declared Russian territory; everyone else will be furious that so much has been wasted for so little gain. He therefore has no choice but to persevere with his current strategy, and to this end he has put his country on a war-footing.
This has led to the view that the only a successful Ukrainian offensive can force the Kremlin to look for a way out . Much effort is currently going into Ukrainian preparations for this offensive, with new units being formed, full of recently delivered equipment. Only once the offensive is well underway will we be able to see whether this is as much of a ‘game-changer’ as people hope. In a future post I will look more at how this might develop. For those interested, General Mick Ryan provides a helpful guide to the issues.
What interests me here is the assumption that more depends on the success of the Ukrainian offensive than the failure of the Russian. This implies that the current situation satisfies Putinso that the real issue is how well his forces can hold their defensive lines against the coming Ukrainian onslaught. But Putin is clearly not happy with the current situation. If he was, he would have offered a cease-fire months ago in the hope and expectation of freezing the territorial status quo. Russia does not control all the territory to which it now lays claim. This is why it launched its own offensive in January. Perhaps part of the reason was to disrupt Ukrainian preparations , but the basic reason was to take more territory. This offensive has yet to run its course, and there are areas where Russian forces may yet progress, but so far there is little to show for all the effort and costs.
If it fails to prosper then Putin’s minimum aspirations will still be unmet and his forces less able to cope with whatever Ukraine intends to throw at them.
The importance of Bakhmut
Russia’s current offensive essentially took over from where the previous one left off, with the continuity being provided by the battle for Bakhmut. This battle began last May as part of the then Russian effort to take all of the Donbas, the stated war aim from late March. Russian forces had largely completed the takeover of the oblast of Luhansk and were moving onto Donetsk. From late June Russian forces began to face difficulties as the Ukrainians were able to take advantage of deliveries of accurate long-range artillery to target Russian ammunition dumps and command posts. Then they made it known that they intended to take back Kherson oblast, and began operations to do so. This led Russia to move reserves in that direction, which created an opportunity for the Ukrainians to move into the thinly defended Kharkiv oblast. They soon made rapid progress, matched then by some additional movement in Kherson.
What followed was a crisis in Moscow that led to a major strategic reappraisal. By and large this reflected the demands of the hardliners for a more robust approach to the war, the key features were the announced annexations, which expanded rather than contracted the war aims, systematic and persistent attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, mass mobilisation, which allowed for a rushed move to plug holes in the defences, and a new commander, General Sergei Surovokin, favoured by the hardliners.
This had the effect of slowing down Ukrainian advances, virtually to a standstill, except for when the Russians belatedly evacuated Kherson city last November. At which point Ukraine and its supporters in NATO had to engage in their own reappraisal. Out of this came a commitment to provide Ukraine with the wherewithal to conduct a substantial offensive, including infantry vehicles and tanks, improved air defences and more artillery. The downside was that Ukraine had to move to a defensive mode while it waited for the new equipment to be delivered and its forces trained. Now aware of what was coming, andfrustrated that the territory held did not match the annexations, Putin sought a new offensive. Surovokin, who apparently was too defensive-minded and too close to the Defence Ministry’s critics, was removed and the Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, who would always do as he was told, was put in charge of the overall operation.
Bakhmut was unfinished business from the previous offensive. The mercenary Wagner group was hammering away, their numbers boosted by the recruitment of convicts who were to be offered their freedom if they could survive for six months at the front. Using a combination of incessant artillery barrages and mobilised personnel (mobiks) and convicts as expendable manpower Wagner moved forward, first taking Soledar close to Bakhmut, and then the high ground to its north and south. The imminent seizure of the city was soon being spoken of as a vital next step for Russia. Defence Minister Shoigu explained that this was an important hub of the Ukrainian armed forces. ‘Taking it under control will allow further offensive actions deep into defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.’ Dmitry Polyanskiy, Russia’s first deputy permanent representative to the UN, told Newsweek that without Bakhmut it would be impossible to achieve Putin’s war aims, which required all of Donbas to be taken.
Much, much, much more at the link.
That’s enough for tonight.
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There’s no new Patron material, so here’s some Ukrainian army dogs and cats:
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Open thread!
War for Ukraine Day 396: The War Grinds OnPost + Comments (72)