Conversely, if it is possible to conduct Cultural Operations and Engagement prior to a disaster occurring – either through data mining or because we have personnel working with host country partners or both, then the socio-cultural information can be used to create much more proactive responses. Socio-cultural information may make it possible for decision makers and planners to recognize at risk communities, by fusing geographic information pertaining to areas that are at risk for flooding, hurricanes, tornadoes, forest fires, avalanche with information about those who reside there. Having socio-cultural information during disaster response and emergency management planning would allow for a better understanding of the actual populations at risk by knowing if they are likely to or predisposed to evacuating, if they have the economic wherewithal to do so, if they have places they can go to to seek shelter, as well as who in the communities would need to be engaged in order to facilitate a safe and effective evacuation. Finally, it allows the planner to propose better locations to stage relief and assistance supplies as there is really no good reason to place them to quickly reach those that will either not be effected or will easily (or more easily) evacuate.

Hurricane Katrina

The four near miss hurricanes that threatened New Orleans in 2004 provided disaster management and emergency response personnel with a wealth of data (not only about what might happen to the physical terrain of New Orleans), but also who would and would not evacuate the city.(11) As a result it was possible well in advance of the devastating effects of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 to do a socio-cultural analysis of New Orleans relative to a potential catastrophic hurricane strike. The information was available about who would and would not evacuate. As a result it should have been possible to cross correlate that data based on ethnicity and socio-economic status, which would delineate why individuals would not evacuate (lack of available funds, lack of transportation, lack of relatives to stay with, disbelief of the threat). Such analysis would have also helped to identify the key community leaders and agents of influence who needed to be engaged in order to promote a timely and orderly evacuation. Sadly, there was no coordinated and coherent system for putting this information together, bringing it to the attention of the policy makers, and enabling more effective, more proactive, and more humane management of the preparations for the disaster and its aftermath.

If the planners and decision makers at FEMA, the State of Louisiana, and New Orleans Parish/adjacent parishes had robust socio-cultural information, derived from the cultural operations and Engagement process, available to them many problems could have been averted through the creation of a more effective preparation and evacuation plan. Additionally, high probability areas for natural disasters could be made into hardened targets in much the same manner as high value terrorist targets were hardened post 9-11. There is only so much that can be done geographically in the case of natural disasters, but the ability to improve on the effectiveness of disaster mitigation, response, resupply, and evacuation procedures is fruit that can be harvested. This can only be accomplished through a clear understanding gained by careful study of the socio-cultural and socio-economic terrain.

Access to proper socio-cultural information of greater New Orleans prior to Hurricane Katrina would have allowed the local authorities at New Orleans Parish and the adjacent parishes, Louisiana state officials, and FEMA to focus their relief efforts on those areas where New Orleans residents would not and could not evacuate and where they were most in jeopardy. Moreover, efforts could have been implemented well in advance of the hurricane to work with local elites and notables on creating an effective information operations (IO) campaign, rooted in the local socio-cultural milieus of New Orleans’ most vulnerable communities to push preparation for an evacuation. In this manner the first phase of disaster management, the emergency response, would have been in place and in play much sooner and much more proactively. The same goes in regard to the staging of relief supplies, equipment, and personnel. All of these could have been placed to be surged into safe areas adjacent to those deemed most at risk in order to facilitate both a more robust and orderly evacuation of the most difficult to evacuate communities in New Orleans, as well as much more effective movement of relief personnel and supplies into the worst hit areas. Finally, a better understanding of social behavior, and behavioral drivers, among people afflicted by disaster would have gone a long way towards disaggregating out those simply taking basic supplies or taking up arms for protection (regardless of community) for survival and those very few truly bad actors who took advantage of the disaster for their own enrichment. This would have enabled authorities to more carefully and successfully engage with those in need of assistance, while effectively moving against the small fraction that actually posed a threat. The implications of this are very important for two reasons: 1) it prevents the wrong reactions by the emergency responders towards the afflicted communities and 2) it prevents the commission of Information Operations fratricide by stepping on the appeals and request for emergency aid and donations.

Additionally, the proactive use of socio-cultural information would have made the actual reaction much better. Not only would the emergency response have been in place much sooner and likely been more effective, it would have had an important shaping function on the operational environment. By identifying, engaging, and working with the local communities that are at risk in advance, lines of communication are established, which has a positive Information Operations and shaping effect on the disaster response. Given that all communication is strategic communication, having established and positive communications with the right people sets positive conditions for conducting all three phases of the reactive response.

Given that none of this was done prior to Hurricane Katrina, socio-cultural information derived from the Cultural Operations and Engagement process could still have been of use in the aftermath and response to the disaster. In a reactive response situation, as opposed to a proactive prevention one, Cultural Operations and Engagement may be as or even more important. Robust socio- cultural information tethered to the Hurricane Katrina response would have allowed the disaster response managers to surge out teams of personnel with law enforcement and emergency responders in the initial emergency response phase to determine where the location of the affected New Orleans’ communities were in time and space, which elites, notables, and power brokers were either still in those communities and could be leveraged or who could be quickly brought back. This would have allowed for the facilitation of interactions between the emergency responders and the survivors, as well as determine the context – including the basics of shelter, nutrition, and hydration – of the wants, needs, and expectations of the various New Orleans’ populations going forward from the initial response. By having this information the disaster management response to Hurricane Katrina could have more efficiently and effectively moved through all three divisions of the response: emergency, rehabilitation, and restoration.

Finally, it is necessary to secure the information produced by the Cultural Operations and Engagement process in less vulnerable areas so that the hard won knowledge is not lost. Rather it is safeguarded and available to the emergency responders at the tactical and operational levels, as well as to the disaster managers at the high operational to strategic levels.

9 Nancy Mock and J.E. McGovern (undated power point). “Contingency Planning for Foreign Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief.” SOUTHCOM Lessons Learned From Recent Crises in Latin America. Center for Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance.

10 A Cultural Operations and Engagement team should be made up of a team leader with operational experience in emergency response/ disaster management, a research director to coordinate the cultural operations process, several research managers to facilitate data collection and analysis, and a number of field researchers and analysts – many of whom should speak the local language if deployed abroad. It is possible to combine the team leader and research director positions, as well as the field researcher and analyst ones if necessary.

11 Hurricane Pam. Global Security. http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/ops/hurricane-pam.htm.

 

Mass evacuations and narrow networks

One of the positive things I’ve seen from Hurricane Matthew has been the targeted state governors’ communication has been very clear:

GET THE HELL AWAY FROM THE COAST ASAP

There has been no dithering, no hoping that a delayed evacuation could save a tourist weekend. Millions of people have been on the move.

Hopefully it will be enough to save a lot of lives. And hopefully there is a last moment wiggle and the eye of Matthew stays out to sea and then it recurves to the north and open water.

But if that hope fails and Matthew grinds the Atlantic coast hard with the full force that we fear, hundreds of thousands of people will be temporarily displaced. So what happens to their health insurance if an Indian River County resident ends up in Alabama for a couple of weeks?

This splits into two types of questions, emergency and non-emergency care. The easy answer is for emergency care. All policies will pay to stabilize an individual in a critical care scenario. The cost sharing will look like the hospital is in-network. So if a person has a heart attack after looking at the damage on TV, the first few days in the hospital are covered without concern. Rehab might not be covered in Alabama.

This leads to the non-emergency care scenario which we will talk about below:

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For a Good Time In Radioland (Short Notice Self Aggrandizement)

ETA: So, we lost the connection to Blog Talk radio.  Jay and I continued the conversation to tape; he’s editing it now and will post the audio as a podcast tomorrow.  I’ll let y’all know when it’s up.  Sorry…

dou_astronomer-by-candlelight

Don’t know if anyone reading this has had their fill of The Hunt For Vulcan, but just in case you haven’t, I’ll be talking soon about that book, missing planets, error in science (and life, perhaps) and more with Jay Ackroyd on his internet radio program, Virtually Speaking.

Time: 9 p.m. Eastern, 6 Pacific (one hour from now!)

Here’s the link.

Tune in, if you’re not absorbed in more down-to-earth matters. (I.e….Go Sox!)

Image:  Gerrit Dou, Astronomer by candlelight1665

Open Thread

Sorry for being AWOL. Just a metric ton of stuff going on. Feels like I spend half my life on the phone making arrangements, and now this weekend is homecoming so I am going to have a bunch of middle aged drunks to deal with.

Lemme just say that Maggie the pooch below is right in my wheelhouse for the kind of little dog that punches all my buttons. And I feel like hiding under a couch whenever I go to a big city, too.

Open Thread: Dangerously Dumb Drudge

I sincerely doubt Matt Drudge is dumb enough to try this (or to believe it), but no doubt there’s the odd Trumplodyte idiot already planning for their cellphone SUCK ON THIS MATTHEW WOO HOO!!! videos to go viral. Which would be fine — some people can only learn experientially, as when they get literally thumped around by natural forces — except that rescuing these sorry putzes will put first responders in harm’s way. TPM, “Conservative Hurricane Truthers Downplay Danger Of Hurricane Matthew”:

Hours ahead of Hurricane Matthews’ landfall on Florida’s Atlantic coast, some climate change skeptics downplayed the danger of what meteorologists say could be the worst such storm since Hurricane Katrina…

“This storm will kill you. Time is running out,” Gov. Rick Scott (R) said in a press conference Thursday. “There are no excuses. You need to leave. Evacuate, evacuate, evacuate. Are you willing to take a change to risk your life? Are you willing to take a gamble? That’s what you’re doing.”

Yet in the face of those pleas conservative aggregator Matt Drudge, who has a house in Florida, tweeted that “The deplorables are starting to wonder if govt has been lying to them about Hurricane Matthew intensity to make exaggerated point on climate,” and “Hurricane Center has monopoly on data. No way of verifying claims. Nassau ground observations DID NOT match statements! 165mph gusts? WHERE?”…

On Wednesday, Rush Limbaugh expressed a similar sentiment on his radio show, saying that government scientists might be “playing games” with storm data in order to “sell” the role climate change has played in making hurricanes stronger…

Nah, but you can bet he’ll shove his way to the front of the line to collect any available storm-damage mitigation funds… whether or not he’s actually eligible.

Open Thread: Trump Went to Reno Just to Shoot His Own Campaign

Deadbeat Don has reached the point where he no longer even pretends to care about that “voting” arglebargle. He’s got as much chance of winning Nevada’s electoral votes as I have of winning the next Miss Universe pageant, but there’s plenty Trump fans for a rally and he can charge Trump hotel expenses to his campaign account, so hellooo Neh-VAH-da!

Local reporter got an exclusive interview before Trump’s Henderson rally. Many softballs were lobbed, and still the candidate’s responses seemed… less than presidential:

… During a conversation about nuclear waste storage, Trump acknowledged his familiarity with Nevada’s Yucca Mountain…

“I’m very friendly with this area. I have the hotel here, I will tell you I’m going to take a look at it because so many people here are talking about it. I’ll take a look at it, and the next time you interview me, I’ll have an answer,” said Trump.

Trump was pressed on the issue as it pertains to tourism in southern Nevada.

“Got an idea, just brainstorming, bury the waste under the wall, no one would come near it,” said Snyder. “…the concern is, if we had it it would hurt the tourism industry, scare people, do you share that concern?”

“Number one is safety and it is a little too close to major population, so I will take a look at it and I will have an opinion,” said Trump….

“Do you worry that a trade war would hurt tourism and your business interests here,” asked Snyder.

Trump supported his comments saying, “It will actually help, we’re just talking about fairness, not like tough like we’re not going to do business. Just tough so the US can make something.”

“But what if China said no more visas to go to Las Vegas and stay at Trump Tower,” pressed Snyder.

“If China ever did that, and we cut off relationship with China, China would go bust so fast,” said Trump….

As for his performance in the first debate, Trump says he doesn’t plan to do a single thing differently during the second one.

“A lot of people said I won the first debate.”…

(Video at the link.)

But the one incident that’s getting the most buzz is yet another example of Trump’s firm conviction that primate dominance is always a winning strategy…

Sunday’s townhall debate is going to be… a mess. Anyone want to calculate the odds on Trump trying to shout down the first person in the audience who asks a question he doesn’t like? Extra points if it’s a little old lady or a visibly scarred veteran.

Emergency Preparations for Companion Animals

In the last thread Mel gave some great advice re our furred, feathered, and other family members:

It helps to have a kitty carrier in an easily accessible spot, and to have supplies in your emergency kit for your furry family members, as well. Single use cans of a favorite, familiar pet food (easy to carry /keep safe and fresh in case of evac), a week’s worth of any pet maintenance medicines packed in the kit, and extra bottled water with a lightweight, unbreakable, easy to pack and carry dish are essential.

The Humane Society of the U.S. has a big page of emergency/disaster prep suggestions. The very first one is “ID your pet,” and that’s exactly right. I volunteered down in New Orleans with the HSUS post-Katrina, and one of the first things I learned is that animals with IDs were highly likely to be reunited with their families, whereas animals without IDs were highly UNlikely to be so. It was heartbreaking to see animals that you just knew someone cherished and was desperately missing, but have no way of reuniting them. My dogs have always worn a collar and tag 100% of the time–even when home watching TV, because, you know, stuff happens–but since that experience I’m nuts about making sure everyone else’s dogs, cats, etc., do as well.

Loads of other great information on that page, including lists of companion animal-friendly lodgings, how to plan for helping feral cats, and advice on how to prep for when you’re stuck somewhere and can’t get back home.

Commenter Shell mentioned in the previous thread that many emergency shelters are now pet-friendly, noting how, “In the past a lot of people refused to evacuate cause they didn’t want to leave their pets behind.” Absolutely right and, as is often the case in the good ol’ U.S., there’s a shitty class aspect to this: during Katrina, wealthier people’s animal companions were often welcomed at hotels, whereas poorer people’s weren’t allowed in shelters. This was all epitomized in the famous incident where the nine-year-old boy was devastated because he couldn’t take his little dog Snowball with him on the evacuation bus. Anyhow, this all led to the Pet Evacuation and Transportation Standards Act, which mandates that states receiving federal disaster aid incorporate animal companions and service animals in their disaster planning. More info, including a list of animal-friendly shelters in each state, at this link.

Again, your ideas and suggestions welcome in the thread.