Archives for 2024

A quick housekeeping note. Rosie, Ruby too, are doing great. Rosie’s last chemo treatment is Monday, so we’ll have more on that then. Now that the humidity has come down a lot and the heat as well, it is safer to walk her. We did a 3/4 mile walk earlier and she did very well despite not doing a lot of walking during the course of her treatments because of the effects of them on her combined with the outrageously high heat and humidity. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Now that I’ve gotten a bit of rest, I want to take a moment and spend a little more time on the North Korean soldiers issue. The Republic of Korea’s (ROK/South Korea) National Intelligence Service (NIS) has reported that the soldiers that Kim has dispatched to Russia to fight against the Ukrainians are DPRK Special Forces. These are elite soldiers. They are not conscripts doing their mandatory service. They get special privileges in exchange for their service, proper food and access to sundry goods and commodities included. They are committed to the concept of Juche. These are not troops you want to take lightly. While there’s a lot of sturm und drang right now over whether they’ve actually been deployed to Russia or that they have been, but they’re not going to be used to fight the Ukrainians, these guys are what the Russians thought and mythologized their own Special Forces to be before the Ukrainians chewed them up in February and March 2022. It is also important to remember that it gets VERY, VERY, VERY cold on the Korean peninsula during the winter, there’s a lot of mountainous terrain, and the North Korean Special Forces are trained and acclimated for winter and mountain warfare, so the Ukrainian winter is not going to phase them. If they are assigned to fight the Ukrainians things are going to get very, very, very sporty very quickly.

On the other side of the DMZ, the ROK has their own elite Special Forces. I’ve got friends and colleagues who have worked with them. Even the Special Forces (Green Berets) and Rangers tell stories of agreeing to get up early and do PT with the South Korean Special Forces and getting completely smoked by the latter. They’re in amazing condition, highly trained and skilled, and excellent Soldiers.

The larger issue here is that we are looking at an expansion of one of the kinetic/lethal theaters of operation in Putin’s world war against the US, the EU, NATO, and other US allies and partners. The other three primarily kinetic/lethal theaters are the Russian occupied parts of Georgia; Syria, where Russia attacked civilian targets in Idlib just last week; and the Sahel states. Again, Russia’s world war is primarily being waged with the elements of national power – Diplomatic, Informational, Economic, Financial, Intelligence, and Legal – other than Militaray power except in these four theaters of operation. It is a world war where the aggressor’s/Russia’s military power is not normally distributed as most of the targets are being attacked with the other elements of Russian national power. Where Russian military power is used outside of these four theaters, it is the result of the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence, undertaking it’s sabotage and wetwork campaigns. Campaigns that are also being conducted by Russia’s SVR as the two agencies are in competition with each other. Putin’s world war is being resourced by Iran, North Korea, and, based on recent reporting, the PRC. Russia is killing Ukrainian civilians and destroying Ukrainian infrastructure with Iranian and North Korean weapons systems and munitions. We are now waiting to see if the North Korean Special Forces will actually be deployed against the Ukrainians. And while it is out of scope for the Ukrainian war updates, Kim has cut the roads and rail lines near the DMZ while redeploying additional forces to that area.

I do not expect President Biden and his senior natsec appointees to actually figure this out. They have been incredibly resistant to actually recognizing the geo-strategic reality of the past four years. Even if it was not apparent from their response to and handling of Putin’s genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine, it is visible from space in regard to their mismanagement of the Israel-Hamas, Israel-Hezbullah wars. I read the Israeli news reporting, commentary and analysis, and subject matter experts every day. All of them, every single one, are repeatedly amazed about how Biden, Blinken, Austin, Sullivan, Hochstein, McGurk, et al have been played by Bibi, Dermer, and the rest of Bibi’s people over and over and over again.

Their belief, shared by the rest of the Blob inside and outside the Beltway, that the PRC is the pacing threat and we have to pivot US natsec to meet it before 2027 is based on a significant misunderstanding of Chinese political, strategic, and military culture, Xi, and what the PRC is actually doing in its own geo-strategic activities. Their fundamental misunderstanding of China’s political and military geography has now come home to roost with the latest North Korean developments.

Quite simply, there is not a part of the world that is safer and more stable than it was four years ago. Yes, had Trump been reelected, it would all be worse, but just because Trump and his team would be worse, and that he and they have been actively working to subvert Biden and his team’s natsec efforts, doesn’t excuse the strategic malpractice, mismanagement, and failures of President Biden and his senior natsec appointees.

But just because these are the wrong men – and every single member of the senior natsec team handling these issues are men – to meet this moment, does not mean we should fail to recognize the moment for what it is: an ever expanding world war.

Here’s a summary of Russia’s drone swarm attack last night/early this morning:

Ukraine still under heavy drone attack by Russia. Drones downed over capital overnight (1) wreckage damaging building (2). A Shahed drone attacked energy infrastructure in Sumy Oblast (3), and a new type of Russian drone has been spotted over Kyiv and Cherkasy oblasts. pic.twitter.com/GX3bvTlyQT

— Euan MacDonald (@Euan_MacDonald) October 19, 2024

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from early today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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War for Ukraine Day 969: The Glide Bombing ContinuesPost + Comments (30)