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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

The worst democrat is better than the best republican.

It’s a good piece. click on over. but then come back!!

The desire to stay informed is directly at odds with the need to not be constantly enraged.

Thanks to your bullshit, we are now under siege.

So many bastards, so little time.

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

Wake up. Grow up. Get in the fight.

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

You are so fucked. Still, I wish you the best of luck.

Seems like a complicated subject, have you tried yelling at it?

Second rate reporter says what?

Hell hath no fury like a farmer bankrupted.

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires Republicans to act in good faith.

Republicans want to make it harder to vote and easier for them to cheat.

Marge, god is saying you’re stupid.

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

This year has been the longest three days of putin’s life.

“Facilitate” is an active verb, not a weasel word.

The lights are all blinking red.

Nothing says ‘pro-life’ like letting children go hungry.

When your entire life is steeped in white supremacy, equality feels like discrimination.

There are more Russians standing up to Putin than Republicans.

The fundamental promise of conservatism all over the world is a return to an idealized past that never existed.

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Excellent Read: Mars, Beyotches!

by Anne Laurie|  March 1, 202611:41 pm| 19 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, Space

Link here https://t.co/3Is5Q8Q1gI. (I shared this yesterday, but forgot that this site spikes such links)

— Pinboard (@Pinboard) February 27, 2026

So. Many. Moving. Parts!…Maciej Cegłowski, aka Pinboard, at his SubStack Mars for the Rest of Us, with “A Primer on Long-Duration Life Support”:

Life support is the biggest technical obstacle to the human exploration of Mars.

This fact makes people mad, because there are all kinds of other obstacles that are fun to solve (orbital refueling, landing heavy payloads, making rocket fuel out of Martian air), and life support has a fun factor of zero. It is a thankless world of dodgy sensors, failing bearings, and bacteria trying to grow on absolutely everything.

But if we want to get to Mars alive, we need for this stuff to work.

Requirements
An astronaut in space needs 840 grams of oxygen, 2.8 kilos of water, and 1.8 kilos of dried food a day to stay alive. They also appreciate the little touches, like water to wash with (0.7 kg), fresh clothes (1.5 kg per week), wet wipes (0.2 kg/day) and a toilet (1.4 kg for canisters and wipes).

On the output side, each astronaut exhales around a kilo of carbon dioxide and pees out a liter and a half of urine. They also produce a fairly small quantity of feces and menses (though many women opt to medically induce amenorrhea during space flight)…

On shorter missions like Apollo (~12 days) or Shuttle flights (~14 days) it makes sense to pack everything a crew needs with no attempts at recycling. In this paradigm, carbon dioxide can be scrubbed from the cabin air with disposable lithium hydroxide cartridges; everything else is carried along in the space version of a picnic basket.

On longer missions, trying to carry single-use supplies gets unwieldy. A crew of four on a 1,000 day mission to Mars would need 48 tons of consumables, about equal to the mass of the entire spacecraft. And even if mass were unlimited, there simply wouldn’t be enough room to fit everything on board.

So past a threshold of about 30 days, you have to make some attempt at recycling…

Food
Food may be my favorite technical barrier to Mars travel, because everyone assumes it has been solved, or that it is easy to solve, while the people working on it mop the sweat from their brow during the day and try keep the shaking in their hands from rattling the ice cubes in their whisky glass at night.

Astronauts have hated space food ever since the first meat cubes came back uneaten from Project Gemini. Even on the ISS, where fresh foods are often available, getting crews to eat adequately is a struggle. Whether it’s because the stomach senses satiety differently in zero gravity, or because the space station smells like a toilet, crews have historically consumed only 80% of their rations.

On a multiyear mission, such a calorie level would lead to malnutrition and embarrassing deficiency diseases like space scurvy. So we need to come up with ready-to-eat meals that are nutritious, storable for five years without refrigeration, and appetizing enough that a crew can eat them for a thousand days without wanting to murder each other.

These kinds of meals don’t exist. Their closest equivalent is the military meal ready-to-eat (MRE). But as any soldier or prepper will tell you, an MRE is not something you can subsist on. The meals are not nutritionally complete, and soldiers’ own backronym for the combat ration (meals refusing to exit) sheds light on a notorious shortcomings. Defense department guidelines stress that soldiers should not be fed MREs for more than 21 days at a time…

Much more information, and useful charts, at the link. (I am mildly fixated on the fact that astronauts use the same indicator for discarding their disposable undergarments that my teenager brothers used to decide when to change theirs.)

Excellent Read: <em>Mars, Beyotches!</em>Post + Comments (19)

War for Ukraine Day 1,466: A Brief Sunday Night Update

by Adam L Silverman|  March 1, 202610:10 pm| 13 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A black and white cartoon of Popeye's face/head. He is facing to the viewer's left. His right eye is squinted shut and his pipe is sticking out of the right side of his mouth. The speech bubble reads "I yam disgustipated".

Another long busy day, so I’m just going to run through the basics again.

So, calendar spring is here.

Ukraine surviving this winter was not a miracle. It is tireless, professional, devoted, 24/7 work of Ukraine’s energy workers and Defence Forces.

Heroyam slava!

— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 2:39 AM

For the first time in months or maybe years, Ukraine is liberating more territory than it’s losing, says Come Back Alive Foundation chief Taras Chmut. Russia lost the winter battle and Ukraine keeps fighting, he wrote on X.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 6:33 AM

You may recall that Lil Narco Rubio and US Embassy in Kyiv sent the Ukrainian government a communique telling them to stop attacking Russian petroleum facilities in Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krair, Russia. Ukraine has now delivered its reply:

🔥 Massive combined attack on Novorossiysk, UAVs and maritime drones used. Sheskharis oil terminal hit, – Dnipro Osint

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 6:11 PM

The moment a Ukrainian kamikaze drone strikes a port crane in the Russian port of Novorossiysk.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 5:21 PM

Monitoring channels are publishing footage of the aftermath of a drone strike on the port of Novorossiysk in russia.

Reports indicate that an oil terminal is on fire 🔥

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 4:37 PM

🪓 Chop wood.
🪣 Carry water.
🔥 Sanction Russian oil.

Novorossiysk is currently receiving drone sanctions, and reports indicate that the oil terminal has successfully intercepted Ukrainian drones with its infrastructure.

🪓 Chop wood.
🪣 Carry water.
🔥 Sanction Russian oil.

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 4:18 PM

Another successful interception 😎

Even if oil prices go up next week, Russa won’t benefit if they can’t export oil from their terminals.

🪓 Chop wood.
🪣 Carry water.
🔥 Sanction Russian oil.

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 4:22 PM

BOOM! Novorossiysk port and oil terminal, russia 🔥 🤩

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 6:43 PM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

The Russians Wanted to Turn This Winter Into the Destruction of Ukraine and Ukrainians, but Ukraine Did Not Break, We Preserved Our Energy System – Address by the President

1 March 2026 – 20:42

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today is the day when each of us can rightfully say: we made it through this winter, the most difficult in all the years of the war. The Russians wanted to turn this winter into the destruction of Ukraine and Ukrainians. But Ukraine did not break. We preserved our energy system. This winter, Ukraine repelled a large number of massive attacks, each involving dozens of missiles and hundreds of “shaheds.”

The Russians began this winter with a massive strike on December 6, which became one of the largest – more than 700 different targets were involved, including more than 50 missiles alone. There were many ballistic missiles this winter. In total, more than 700 missiles of various types were used. No nation has gone through such trials. Ukrainians overcame this as well. I am grateful to everyone who protects and restores our energy sector: all employees of energy companies, every repair and emergency crew, the entire staff of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine – you are truly heroes.

Of course, I want to thank every Ukrainian warrior: all those defending our sky, every air defense crew, Ukrainian aviation, mobile fire groups, all developers, manufacturers, and operators of interceptors – thank you!

I thank the municipal services and the local and regional authorities who truly stood with people this winter – with their cities and villages. Everyone in Ukraine saw who was truly capable of what in governing cities and communities.

I especially want to recognize Ukrainian entrepreneurs, every business in Ukraine – both small and large – that managed to adapt in these conditions, preserved jobs, made it through this winter, and continues working in Ukraine. It is extremely important that we remain resilient going forward.

We know that the Russians are not going to cease their strikes. This is a fact. They are preparing new attacks. Against infrastructure. Intelligence provides the relevant information. Therefore, everyone whose job and service is to protect Ukraine from strikes must be just as focused this spring as in winter. Every threat must be countered, and as many Russian targets as possible must be shot down. The situation in the Middle East shows how difficult it is to provide one hundred percent protection against missiles and “shahed” drones. Even in the Gulf countries, which have more advanced air defense systems than those provided to us so far by our partners – and in greater numbers – not all ballistic missiles are intercepted. There are also “shaheds” that air defense in the region has not stopped. Everyone can now see that our experience in defense is, in many respects, irreplaceable. We are ready to share this experience and help those nations that helped Ukraine this winter and throughout this war. Europe must finally ensure real strength for itself – a real capability to defend its sky, its land, and its sea from any type of attack. In particular, this requires building sufficient air defense production capacity – both against drones and against ballistic missiles. We are now closely monitoring every change in the situation around Iran. Ukrainian intelligence, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs – everyone is engaged. We are in coordination with partners. It is important that this chance for change for Iran be used properly. The Iranian people have long effectively been alone against violence – against the Iranian regime. This regime, which has killed tens of thousands of its own citizens just in recent months, which has always fueled and organized wars in the region, which provided Russia with “shaheds” and the technology for their production – this regime has brought this attitude upon itself. It is important that there be a clear position in support of people and human life. It is important that American determination, the determination of everyone in the world truly work. I thank everyone who is trying to prevent the war from expanding and who is defending against strikes from Iran. And I also thank everyone who tells Russia – now, based on the experience of the Iranian regime – that justice does come. Russia must end its war against Ukraine, end it in a dignified way – diplomacy can ensure this. The world is giving Russia an opportunity for diplomacy – they should use it. I thank everyone who stands with Ukraine! I thank everyone who helps us!

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

Day 459 of daily, uninterrupted, nationwide protests in Georgia.

Faces are blurred, as always, as more and more protesters are jailed for peacefully standing on the sidewalk.

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 12:40 PM

Iranians in Georgia have gathered in front of the Iranian Embassy, protesting in solidarity and celebrating. Georgian activists joined them with a traditional dance. 🇬🇪🇮🇷

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 11:14 AM

Belgium and France:

🚨 Belgium, together with France, has detained the tanker Ethera, linked to Russia’s shadow fleet.

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 11:28 AM

Slovakia:

Ukraine offered Slovak PM Fico dates for a visit – March 6 or 9. Zelensky invited him to discuss the Druzhba pipeline and other pressing issues.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 3:06 PM

Hungary:

I heard this buffoon posting random anti-Ukraine propaganda slop 24/7 (in English!) was actually supposed to run a country instead.

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— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 5:03 PM

Back to Ukraine.

Here’s some of tonight’s outgoing Ukrainian fires:

As of an hour ago the entire south of Russia was under a massive drone attack, including jet-powered drones.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 3:04 PM

“The Iranians and their Russian allies had four years of target practice on Ukrainian cities to improve their Shahed drones. And most of the world smiled politely and thought it is just the Ukrainians’ unfortunate problem.”
@yarotrof.bsky.social

— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 4:12 AM

Ironically, if Donald had given Ukraine Tomahawks they could’ve wiped out the Shahed drone factory we built. Now Iran can get replacements from us when they run low.

— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 10:53 AM

Destruction of a Russian Buk M1 air defense system by a loitering munition strike by the 422nd Regiment of Unmanned Systems

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 2:26 PM

Ukrainian aviation smashed a large building packed with Russian troops, two regimental command posts and a stockpile of ammo and drones, Soniashnyk reports. Stay tuned for details.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 7:54 AM

🇺🇦 Ukrainians aviation struck Russian positions with GBU-62 bomb, – Soniashnyk

The enemy suffered losses due to the collapse of the building’s floors.

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 6:06 PM


Kharkiv:

Sunday morning. russia is attacking Kharkiv with Iranian Shahed drones.

Same drones. Different reaction.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 2:03 AM

March 1 marks the fourth anniversary of the cruise missile strike on the Kharkiv Regional State Administration building. At the time of the attack, territorial defense fighters, military personnel, and volunteers were inside.

The strike killed 44 people and wounded another 15.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 7:58 AM

Even the military personnel in the building had mostly been civilians just a week earlier; they had joined the territorial defense to protect their homes and families from the Russian invasion. They were our bravest.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 7:58 AM

Russian occupied Mariupol:

The USF destroyed Russia’s Imbir radar and S-300V near Mariiupil on the night of March 1 using FP-2 guided strike drones with 100kg warhead.

Imbir is a rare mobile radar used within the S-300V.

The S-300V 9A84 launcher is a high-value component with an engagement range of up to 250 km.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 2:48 AM

/2. Targeted Imbir radar is a decoy

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 3:08 AM

Sevastopol, Russian occupied Crimea:

Occupied Sevastopol is without power following a drone attack.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 3:01 PM

Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast:

Ukrainian aircraft struck the Krasnolimanskaya mine east of Rodynske. Preliminary reports suggest Russian “Rubikon” unit operators were targeted, with significant losses reported.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 10:04 AM

Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

Ukrainian Air Assault Forces’ 132nd Recon Battalion broke through Russian lines on the Oleksandrivskyi front. Scouts destroyed bunkers and ammo depots, opening a bridgehead for further tactical advancement.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 8:58 AM

Belgorod Oblast, Russia:

Air defenses active right now over Russian Belgorod. Reports say there may be a hit, according to Exilenova+.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 9:57 AM

Kursk Oblast, Russia:

Ukrainian border guards from the “Steel Border” brigade knocked out two Russian tanks on the Kursk front.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 7:09 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron.

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today.

Here is some adjacent material.

Vaska enjoys massages 💙🥰

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— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) February 28, 2026 at 11:31 AM

Me too Vaska, me too!

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,466: A Brief Sunday Night UpdatePost + Comments (13)

Sunday Night Open Thread

by John Cole|  March 1, 202610:03 pm| 44 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

I really regret to inform you all but I do not have much of anything other than a bad attitude to offer you all. I still have seen absolutely no evidence that there is a plan for anything other than to just bomb and run and then let the chips fall where they may. Trump says something different every time he opens his piehole, we apparently killed scores of girls under the age of 12 at a school, so that should help everyone sleep tonight.

I am so pissed off about this earlier today I was running errands and was driving down a side street and there was a stop sign so I stopped and I immediately started fuming about what is going on and just raged and after like 90 seconds thought this is an extremely long light, snapped out of it, and realized I was at a stop sign. Last night my brain literally broke while I was trying to write the word scissors and got just all wrapped around the axle and could literally feel my brain grind to a halt and lose focus

scisor
sissor
sizzor
sciszors

and then like everything stop working and none of the words on the page made sense and I was dazed and had that “Is this a stroke am I having an acid flashback” feeling and then muttered god damnit and alt-tabbed to duckduckgo and searched for shears+synonym and found it that way. God I hate these people. I suppose along with a quagmire, every generation gets to relive the classics:

Sunday Night Open Thread 31

I guess it is part of the education of the youth to replay all the Greatest Hits, although this time it is the muzak version and the kids are far less prime to buy the bullshit. We’ll have to check in and see if Sullivan has spotted a fifth column in our midst. Just everything about this sucks.

Make sure you write and call your congressmen.

***

It’s late, I am spent, and I doubt many of you are still awake, so I will just stop complaining and call it a night. I convince myself this is somehow therapeutic for you all.

Sunday Night Open ThreadPost + Comments (44)

Foreign Affairs Open Thread: A Sacrifice Trump Is Willing to Make

by Anne Laurie|  March 1, 20268:51 pm| 47 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Trumpery, War

I have never seen a politician more directly copy this speech in my life

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— Micah (@rincewind.run) March 1, 2026 at 5:13 PM

Seems like the emerging policy is: you people out there are responsible for setting up your own governments, but if the US doesn’t like who ends up in charge we’ll just assassinate or kidnap them and then the ball is back in your court.

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— southpaw (@nycsouthpaw.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 10:48 AM

…But also we’re not going to bother with actually defeating the repressive forces of the authoritarian regimes or securing their most advanced weaponry against misuse. That’d be too much like work. It’s decapitation attacks all the way down.

— southpaw (@nycsouthpaw.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 10:51 AM

again, there is no strategy or coherent theory of victory here, it is literally bomb stuff — ??? — regime change
WH: DO STUFF IN IRAN
OSD: BOSS WANTS STUFF DONE IN IRAN, ALSO NO TROOPS
CENTCOM: I mean, we can absolutely bomb stuff, hell we'd bomb Iran for free. Jimbo you got them target decks?

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— Mike Black (@mikeblack114.bsky.social) February 28, 2026 at 3:02 PM

Caine: got that Iran stuff planned just like ya asked boss, although I'm not su–
WH: yeah sure cool whatever, make sure there's lots of sizzle reel footage for the poasts, okay nap time
This is a 100% accurate description of what went down here

— Mike Black (@mikeblack114.bsky.social) February 28, 2026 at 3:02 PM

@slyngstad.bsky.social
Punctuation matters 😒

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— Xela Hart (@xelahart.bsky.social) February 28, 2026 at 10:37 AM

show full post on front page

On Iran, Ted Cruz tells CBS/FTN: “I don't have present day intelligence on what progress they had made towards rebuilding nuclear weapons since we bombed their facilities. I have no indication that that they were anywhere close to getting nuclear weapons because our bombing was devastating.”

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— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 7:31 PM

the reason they haven't shared a justification or a strategy is because there *is* no justification or strategy, but i guess it's kind of noteworthy that even an outlet like politico is starting to be like, "you really can't give us *anything* to run with here?"

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— GOLIKEHELLMACHINE (@golikehellmachine.com) March 1, 2026 at 4:37 PM

when i say “the american public”, this includes every republican member of congress, many of whom have to run for re-election this year

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— GOLIKEHELLMACHINE (@golikehellmachine.com) March 1, 2026 at 7:40 PM

not a misfire, American officials are apparently known to stay here

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— the abbot of unreason (an archaeologist) (@merovingians.bsky.social) February 28, 2026 at 2:06 PM

Warmongers always talk about cutting off the head of a snake, but an authoritarian regime is a snake PIT, not a snake. There’s probably dozens of would-be ayatollahs who are ecstatic today and plotting their rise.

— Eric Flynt (@eflynt.bsky.social) February 28, 2026 at 5:29 PM

The Supreme Leader insisted on not taking special security measures even though he knew the attacks were about to start and was killed in his home. He wanted to die this way.
The concept of martyrdom is an extremely potent, galvanizing force in Shia and Iranian culture.

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— Ali Ahmadi (@aliahmadi.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 5:42 AM

literally just this fucking tweet from 2011

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— violentlycar (@violentlycar.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 5:56 PM

👆🏽👆🏽👆🏽

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— GenXer-71 (@genxer-71.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 12:12 PM

I don’t think this registers as hypocritical to them. “War” is something that the libs and neocons do with soldiers who die because they aren’t as cruel as they are. War’s for suckers who don’t have the stomach to rain death until the enemy surrenders. This isn’t war to them, it’s projecting force.

[image or embed]

— Cooper Lund (@cooperlund.online) February 28, 2026 at 8:39 AM

Foreign Affairs Open Thread: A Sacrifice Trump Is Willing to MakePost + Comments (47)

Medium Cool – Classics!

by WaterGirl|  March 1, 20267:00 pm| 109 Comments

This post is in: Medium Cool, Popular Culture, Culture as a Hedge Against This Soul-Sucking Political Miasma We're Living In

Medium Cool is a weekly series related to popular culture, mostly film, TV, and books, with some music and games thrown in. We hope it’s a welcome break from the anger, hate, and idiocy we see almost daily from the other side in the political sphere.

Arguments welcomed, opinions respected, fools un-suffered. We’re here every Sunday at 7 pm.

Tonight let’s talk about the classics!

Medium Cool – Books That Shaped Your Views of Race

So let’s talk about classics.  But let’s expand it a bit.  Not just books like Moby Dick or Jane Eyre or Pride and Prejudice or A Tale of Two Cities.

I’m also thinking also about books like The Autobiography of Malcom X and Rules for Radicals and Our Bodies, Ourselves.  Authors like Marge Piercy or Katherine V. Forrest or Maya Angelou and books like The Color Purple.  Books where you found kindred spirits, and could read about people like you.

Two links to help get you thinking.  100 Must Read Classics chosen by Penguin books readers, and faber’s Black History Month Books: Classic Titles by Black Authors.

So… classical classics and irreverent classics and eye-opening classics – and you get to be the judge of what is a classic, it doesn’t have to be on anybody’s classic list but your own.

 

In case you are new to Medium Cool, these are not open threads.

Medium Cool – Classics!Post + Comments (109)

Respite: At Play in the Fields of the LLMs

by Tom Levenson|  March 1, 20266:17 pm| 107 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Respite, Technology, General Stupidity

ETA: This was written for Balloon Juice but is crossposted at Inverse Square.

So…

Just this week I learned that through my home institution I have access to a suite of LLMs, including all the usual suspects (Anthropic’s Claude, OpenAI’s ChapGPT, Meta’s Llama, and Google’s Gemini. MIT’s come up with a very nice interface to interact with all this artificial talent, and I’ve spent a couple of hours this weekend taking some of them out for a spin. (I’m avoiding OpenAI’s offerings both as a trivial protest and because I don’t trust anything about that company.

So far I’ve enjoyed Claude the most (the Haiku 4.5 model, if you’re wondering). Gemini is interesting, if a bit finicky. But what made me howl was the encounter I just had with Llama, Mr. Zuckerberg’s contribution to the genre. Context: over the holidays I  had a conversation with a senior person at another magnificent 7 tech firm who’d just seen a colleague leave to go to Meta who was utterly dismissive of the company and relieved to be rid of anyone dumb enough (in his view) to basically end his career in top-tier tech by grabbing Facebook bucks. Spoiler: after what you’ll read below, I can see where my friend was coming from.

So here’s the setup. I’ve been asking the various models what I hope are zero-consequence questions, queries in which no one could possibly get hurt if the LLMs wing their way to utter bollocks. A typical ask: map out the logical structure Einstein used in his 1905 light quantum behavior. That one tended to get an initial poor answer based on the idea that the paper centers on the then-pressing mystery of the photoelectric effect–a common mistake for people as well as machines. Pressing the models led Claude in particular to a much more sophisticated account of the paper drawing attention to the way Einstein used arguments from thermodynamics to propose the necessity of understanding light as discrete packets of energy.

Respite: At Play in t

The paper was about this new “heuristic” [Einstein’s term] view of light, and the photoelectric effect appears only as one experimental support for that view. (Much more here.)

After three or four trips through the query engineering needed to get a useful result I’d found my way down the list of models at my disposal to Meta’s Llama.  I was bored with light quanta and so asked a different, much simpler question:

“When a stock is overvalued as defined by a price to earnings ratio a standard deviation or more higher than historical market norms for that company’s sector, what are the typical events or analyses that drive that share price back down to the norm?”

Llama gave me a very stock answer that would have been at home in a high school economics class, so I decided to become a little more pointed in my pursuit:

Given that analysis, how would you explain Tesla’s long run of share prices between one and two orders of magnitude over that of other and much larger and more profitable car companies, like Toyota?

What followed was…first unimpressive and then hilarious. See for yourselves below the jump:

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Tesla’s Valuation Puzzle

Tesla’s share price has been a subject of fascination and debate, with its valuation often being significantly higher than that of other automakers, including Toyota. To understand this phenomenon, let’s examine the factors that have contributed to Tesla’s premium valuation.

Growth and Disruption

  1. Pioneering electric vehicles (EVs): Tesla was one of the first companies to successfully mass-produce EVs, creating a new market and disrupting the traditional automotive industry.
  2. Innovative technology: Tesla has been at the forefront of EV technology, with advancements in battery management, autonomous driving, and software updates.
  3. Brand loyalty and cult following: Tesla has built a strong brand identity, with a loyal customer base and a reputation for innovation and sustainability.

Investor Sentiment and Expectations

  1. Growth expectations: Investors have high expectations for Tesla’s future growth, driven by its expanding product lineup, increasing production capacity, and potential for further market disruption.
  2. Long-term vision: Tesla’s mission to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy has resonated with investors, who are willing to look beyond short-term profitability.
  3. Charismatic leadership: Elon Musk’s leadership and vision have been instrumental in shaping Tesla’s brand and driving investor enthusiasm.

Valuation Metrics and Comparisons

  1. Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio: Tesla’s P/E ratio has often been significantly higher than that of traditional automakers, reflecting its growth prospects and investor expectations.
  2. Price-to-sales (P/S) ratio: Tesla’s P/S ratio has also been elevated, indicating that investors are willing to pay a premium for its revenue growth.
  3. Comparison to other growth stocks: Tesla’s valuation has been compared to that of other growth stocks, such as Amazon or Shopify, which have also experienced significant premium valuations.

Challenges and Risks

  1. Competition from established automakers: Traditional automakers, including Toyota, have been investing heavily in EV technology, potentially eroding Tesla’s competitive advantage.
  2. Production and delivery challenges: Tesla has faced production and delivery issues in the past, which can impact its ability to meet growth expectations.
  3. Regulatory risks: Changes in government policies or regulations can affect Tesla’s business, particularly if they impact the demand for EVs or the company’s access to incentives.

Why Tesla’s Valuation Has Remained High

Despite the challenges and risks, Tesla’s valuation has remained high due to a combination of factors:

  1. Continued growth and innovation: Tesla has continued to innovate and expand its product lineup, maintaining its position as a leader in the EV market.
  2. Investor enthusiasm and momentum: The company’s strong brand and charismatic leadership have maintained investor enthusiasm, driving the stock price higher.
  3. Speculative buying and short squeezes: Tesla’s stock has been subject to speculative buying and short squeezes, which can contribute to its high valuation.

Comparison to Toyota

Toyota, on the other hand, is a more established automaker with a larger market capitalization and a more diversified product lineup. While Toyota has been investing in EV technology, its valuation has been more in line with traditional automakers. The key differences between Tesla and Toyota are:

  1. Growth prospects: Tesla is expected to continue growing at a faster rate than Toyota, driven by its focus on EVs and innovative technology.
  2. Brand identity and disruption: Tesla has created a new market and disrupted the traditional automotive industry, whereas Toyota is a more established player with a different business model.

In conclusion, Tesla’s high valuation relative to Toyota and other traditional automakers can be attributed to a combination of factors, including its growth prospects, innovative technology, brand loyalty, and investor enthusiasm. While there are challenges and risks associated with Tesla’s business, its continued innovation and growth have maintained its premium valuation.

I saw a few problems with that conclusion, so I asked again:

I’d like you to follow up on that analysis. You say Tesla has an expanding product lineup; it has just discontinued its two largest models (Model S and Model X). The cybertruck has failed to become a mass market vehicle. And global sales are declining while Tesla has been overtaken by BYD as the world’s largest EV maker. Its innovation process has slowed, and it is arguably behind Waymo and others in autonomous driving. Its leader is a controversial figure, whose presence energizes one community but since 2024 at least has alienated another, arguably of those more likely to buy an EV. Are you sure that these are the factors that explain Tesla’s share price? Or to put it another way, would you invest Meta’s money in Tesla at the current P/E ratio?

What followed is, it seems to me, a perfect anecdata demonstration of why we might not want to surrender all of our critical faculties to a set of silicon overlords. Map what Llama says onto what I asked:

Revisiting Tesla’s Valuation

Upon further analysis, it appears that the factors I previously mentioned may not be as relevant as they once were. Tesla’s product lineup has indeed been contracting, with the discontinuation of its two largest models, the Model S and Model X. The Cybertruck, while innovative, has not achieved mass market success. Additionally, Tesla’s global sales have been declining, and the company has been overtaken by BYD as the world’s largest EV maker.

Challenges and Concerns

  1. Declining sales and market share: Tesla’s sales have been declining, and the company has lost its position as the world’s largest EV maker.
  2. Innovation slowdown: Tesla’s innovation process has slowed, particularly in the area of autonomous driving, where it is being surpassed by competitors like Waymo.
  3. Controversy surrounding Elon Musk: Elon Musk’s leadership and behavior have become increasingly polarizing, potentially alienating a significant portion of potential customers.

Reevaluating Tesla’s Valuation

In light of these challenges and concerns, it’s reasonable to question whether Tesla’s current valuation is justified. The company’s P/E ratio is still relatively high, indicating that investors are willing to pay a premium for its shares.

Investment Decision

If I were to advise Meta on investing in Tesla at the current P/E ratio, I would likely recommend caution. While Tesla is still a pioneering company in the EV space, its current challenges and concerns suggest that its growth prospects may be more limited than previously thought.

Alternative Investment Opportunities

There may be other investment opportunities in the EV or technology spaces that offer more attractive growth prospects and valuations. For example, companies like BYD, NIO, or Li Auto may offer more compelling investment opportunities due to their growth potential and competitive positioning.

Conclusion

In conclusion, while Tesla is still a significant player in the EV market, its current challenges and concerns suggest that its valuation may be due for a correction. As an investor, it’s essential to carefully evaluate the company’s prospects and consider alternative investment opportunities before making a decision. At the current P/E ratio, I would likely advise against investing in Tesla, and instead, explore other opportunities that offer more attractive growth prospects and valuations.

That’s a 180 degree swing from the prior answer, generated by nothing more than calling bullshit on the model’s first conclusion.

What does it all mean?

Hell if I know. I’m as far from an expert on all of this stuff as it’s possible to be. I’m just a guy with access to a very funny set of hammers out here looking for nails.

One thought though: there’s a lot of evidence out there, some of which I’ve encountered directly from colleagues and friends, in which various AI approaches have real and large impacts on various problems. Folks doing drug discovery or protein analysis or a lot of coding tasks and…well the list goes on. And in just my brief playtime with Claude et al., I got some distinct value from the LLMs’ ability to look at specific texts and break them down. So anyone saying AI is a fraud top to bottom is, I think, clearly wrong.

But those who think that a general machine intelligence is right around the corner…well, the Llama case above seems to me a pretty clear example of how a statistical inference machine operating on a bucket full of internet slop may not be all that, not yet and quite possibly not for an arbitrarily long time to come.

Image: J. M. W. Turner, Keelman hauling coals by moonlight, 1835

Respite: At Play in the Fields of the LLMsPost + Comments (107)

Interested in a Zoom Book Club to Discuss Tom Levenson’s Book ‘So Very Small’?

by WaterGirl|  March 1, 20262:30 pm| 26 Comments

This post is in: Balloon Juice, Balloon Juice Zooms, Book Clubs, Open Threads, Tom Levenson's So Very Small Book Clu

Re-upping this announcement from Wednesday.

Interested in a Zoom Book Club to Discuss Tom Levenson’s Book 'So Very Small'?

Hey everybody,

Anybody interested in having a Zoom book club to talk about Tom’s book, So Very Small?

Tom is super flexible, so we can talk about arguments in book and the relevance of the book today and /or we can use the book as a jumping off point for discussion.

It’s looking like we will start in 3-4 weeks, zooming the first two weeks of April, to give you guys time to read the book if you’re interested.

If you’re interested in reading / discussing this book, let us know in the comments!

⭐️  ⭐️  ⭐️

SAVE THE DATES

Wednesdays
April 8 and April 15
8 pm Eastern time

Zooms will start on time and will last 90 minutes.

⭐️  ⭐️  ⭐️

MORE DETAILS

We will raffle off a signed copy of one of Tom’s books – only participants in the zooms will be eligible for that.

If you want to participate but aren’t in a position right now to buy the book, let us know in the comments or send me email.  I’m sure we’ll be able to pair you up with someone to supply a book.

TO RSVP and get the Zoom link

Send email to WaterGirl and reference Tom or the book in the subject of your message!  And don’t forget to include your nym. :-)

I will send out the Zoom links the week of the first zoom, and the same link will work for both.  So not to worry if you have RSVP’d but you didn’t hear back from me.

Interested in a Zoom Book Club to Discuss Tom Levenson’s Book ‘So Very Small’?Post + Comments (26)

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