I am glad to see this, and it doesn’t surprise me. I mean, how many times could Bibi tell Biden to fuck off before we were going to get here? 🚨🚨Scoop: U.S. put a hold on an ammunition shipment to Israel last week, two Israeli officials told me. My story on @axios https://t.co/vyS0DEAZNg — Barak …
Open Threads
War for Ukraine Day 803: Russia Bombards Continues Its Bombardment of Ukraine Despite the Holy Day
by Adam L Silverman| 16 Comments
This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War in Ukraine
(Image by NEIVANMADE) "He saved others, but He can't save himself!" (Mt. 27:42) Thousands of Ukrainian heroes, including about 900 defenders of Azovstal, are in Ruzzian captivity right now. Let's demand the immediate release of those who sacrificed everything for freedom and democracy.#NEIVANMADE pic.twitter.com/ogDvdQl242 — #NEIVANMADE (@neivanmade) May 3, 2024 As I begin tonight’s update …
Easter Greetings by the President of Ukraine
5 May 2024 – 09:01
Great People of Great Ukraine!
Today we celebrate a significant holiday — the Resurrection of the Lord. Easter. Easter symbolizes the liberation of the human soul from the slavery of evil and darkness. It symbolizes the victory of goodness and justice, the victory of life over death.
We have been fighting for all of this for 802 days in a row. 802 days of freedom standing up to darkness, valor standing up to terror. 802 days of our resistance, which can be described by the words from the Gospel of John: “The light shines in the darkness, and the darkness has not overcome it…”
The exact same words are dedicated to one of the exhibitions at St. Sophia Cathedral, where I am now. Together, this exhibition and the other works by various Ukrainian artists convey a deep meaning. These are the icons on ammunition boxes. They are saturated with the smoke of our land and the spirit of our people. They are the symbols of great trials and great power that helps us overcome them. Each of these icons is like a divine manifestation, a proof that the heavens are with us, an answer to the question of why Ukrainians have withstood. It is because in the most difficult circumstances and in the darkest times we are able to create light. We can do it on boards scorched by fire and grief, that came from Ukrainian cities and villages exhausted by suffering. We can do this by combining the seemingly incompatible: the war and the Lord, by overcoming evil with faith, overcoming adversity with hope.
When taking a closer look at these icons, one can understand the feelings of our entire nation. It’s a mirror that reflects our reality in times of war, the path we have already taken, and this Easter, and our entire present. This is what our amulets look like today. This is how we feel that God is protecting us through the hands of our warriors. This is how we see the protection of the heavenly forces, embodied in the Security and Defense Forces of Ukraine, every Ukrainian who devotes themself to the sacred cause of defending their native land from darkness and evil.
These icons bear the names of heroes who sacrificed their lives to protect us. They showed that Ukrainians kneel only to pray. And never do they kneel in front of invaders and occupiers.
The Bible teaches us to love our neighbor. And the present has shown us the true meaning of this word. When we support and help each other even hundreds of kilometers away from one another. We protect each other. We pray for each other. When we all have become closer to each other, we have become each other’s neighbors. And our former neighbor, who was always making us take him for a brother, remains distant from us for centuries. They have broken all the commandments, coveted our house, and come to kill us. The world sees it.
God knows it. And we believe that there is a chevron with the Ukrainian flag on the shoulder of God. Therefore, with such an ally, life will definitely prevail over death.
As we overcome a common path and experience common pain, we are all united today by one common prayer. We pray for all our warriors who are celebrating Easter in the trenches and on the positions. We pray for our warriors of light, who restrain demons in all directions. We pray for those who keep another commandment in their lives: to defend Ukraine. We pray that they all come back alive.
We pray for all our civilians who work hard every day to strengthen our state and ensure that it successfully overcomes evil. We pray for those who live and work for this purpose.
We pray for all our children, for all the boys and girls brave far beyond their years, whose childhood was stolen from them by Russia, but who, despite everything, have not forgotten how to smile and believe in miracles.
We pray for all our mothers and fathers who were robbed of a happy, peaceful aging, and who, despite everything, are holding on and taking care of us.
We pray for all our cities and villages, that should feel the Lord’s grace, not the constant terror of evil, and which have black clouds hanging over them, and bombs and missiles coming from those who belong in hell, not in the Ukrainian sky.
We pray for our lands and our people, whose spirit cannot be broken. And we remember the words written in St. Sophia Cathedral above the Oranta image, which came true in our lives: “God is in the midst of the city, and it will not be shaken. God will help it before dawn.”
Today, we are praying for all Ukrainians who are waiting for this dawn and will certainly see it. They will find peace, truth, and God, who will return to the scorched land, the land scarred with craters and trenches. He will return with peace, tranquility, and flowers instead of mines in the fields. He will return with children’s laughter instead of the roar of an air alarm. The light that will return to all of our Lord-given land, to all the territories that are temporarily occupied by the devils. God will return to Mariupol. To the slag heaps and the seashores. It has always been so. It will definitely be so. I believe in this every day, especially on this glorious day in this glorious place, the history of which reminds us that neither the Horde invasion, nor the Nazi occupation, nor the Russian terror will be able to wipe us off the face of the Earth.
May the heavens strengthen our will in the battle against thralldom. May they give us courage for new achievements and wisdom to appreciate all that we have already gained. May they give us the strength to maintain unity, and give us unity to enhance our strength. May God grant eternal rest to all those who gave their lives for Ukraine and everlasting peace to their descendants, to all our children and grandchildren, and to all our future generations. They have the sacred right to know what a peaceful Easter in a peaceful Ukraine is.
Today we pray for it and we fight for it.
And the light shines in the darkness…
Happy Easter to all of you, dear Ukrainians!
Christ is risen!
He is risen indeed!
Happy Easter! pic.twitter.com/Im2Yq43dwA
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 5, 2024
Facing our third Easter in this new reality, it's still hard to accept. But we hold onto hope: one day, good will triumph over evil, life over death. Wishing us all strength, faith, and perseverance. Christ is Risen! pic.twitter.com/Bm3BLBH6w7
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 5, 2024
Ukrainian Defenders send holiday packages with Easter cakes to their brothers-in-arms in Krynky (Russian-occupied part of Kherson region where Ukrainian Army has a stronghold) using drones.
📹: libkos/instagram https://t.co/kR9ouWxi0p pic.twitter.com/mnwaOmHpkW
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 5, 2024
“In Sweden, security services are meanwhile investigating a series of recent railway derailments, which they suspect may be acts of state-backed sabotage. Russia has attempted to destroy the signalling systems on Czech railways” https://t.co/GiireeZMRF
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) May 5, 2024
The Financial Times via the Wayback Machine because of the paywall: (emphasis mine)
European intelligence agencies have warned their governments that Russia is plotting violent acts of sabotage across the continent as it commits to a course of permanent conflict with the west.
Russia has already begun to more actively prepare covert bombings, arson attacks and damage to infrastructure on European soil, directly and via proxies, with little apparent concern about causing civilian fatalities, intelligence officials believe.
While the Kremlin’s agents have a long history of such operations — and launched attacks sporadically in Europe in recent years — evidence is mounting of a more aggressive and concerted effort, according to assessments from three different European countries shared with the Financial Times.
Intelligence officials are becoming increasingly vocal about the threat in an effort to promote vigilance.
“We assess the risk of state-controlled acts of sabotage to be significantly increased,” said Thomas Haldenwang, head of German domestic intelligence. Russia now seems comfortable carrying out operations on European soil “[with] a high potential for damage,” he told a security conference last month hosted by his agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution.
Haldenwang spoke just days after two German-Russian nationals were arrested in Bayreuth, Bavaria, for allegedly plotting to attack military and logistics sites in Germany on behalf of Russia.
Two men were charged in the UK in late April with having started a fire at a warehouse containing aid shipments for Ukraine. English prosecutors accuse them of working for the Russian government.
In Sweden, security services are meanwhile investigating a series of recent railway derailments, which they suspect may be acts of state-backed sabotage.
Russia has attempted to destroy the signalling systems on Czech railways, the country’s transport minister told the FT last month.
In Estonia, an attack on the interior minister’s car in February and those of journalists were perpetrated by Russian intelligence operatives, the country’s Internal Security Service has said. France’s ministry of defence also warned this year of possible sabotage attacks by Russia on military sites.
“The obvious conclusion is that there has been a real stepping up of Russian activity,” said Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, the think-tank.
“One cannot tell if that’s a reflection of the fact that the Russians are throwing more resources at it; whether they are being more sloppy and getting caught; or whether western counter-intelligence has simply become better at detecting and stopping it,” he added. “Whatever it is though — there is a lot going on.”
One senior European government official said information was being shared through Nato security services of “clear and convincing Russian mischief”, which was co-ordinated and at scale.
The time had come to “raise awareness and focus” about the threat of Russian violence on European soil, he added.
Nato issued a statement on Thursday declaring its deep concern about growing “malign activities on allied territory” by Russia, citing what it said was an “intensifying campaign . . . across the Euro-Atlantic area”.
The growing fears over Russia’s appetite for physical damage against its adversaries follow a spate of accusations against Russia over disinformation and hacking campaigns.
On Friday, Germany vowed consequences for Moscow — in a statement backed by the EU and Nato — over a 2023 hacking attack on the social democratic party of chancellor Olaf Scholz.
A scandal exposing Russian attempts to co-opt far right European politicians ahead of upcoming European elections is meanwhile still unfolding.
One intelligence official said Moscow’s sabotage efforts should not be seen as a distinct from other operations, saying the ramp-up in activity reflected Russia’s aim to exert maximum pressure “across the piece”.
Putin is currently feeling “emboldened” and will seek to push lines as hard as he can in Europe, on multiple fronts, he said, whether through disinformation, sabotage or hacking.
Increased aggression from Russian intelligence also reflects the desire for the country’s spymasters to reassert themselves after their most serious setback since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
In the weeks following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, more than 600 Russian intelligence officers operating in Europe with diplomatic cover were ejected, dealing serious damage to the Kremlin’s spy network across the continent.
In a recent report, analysts at the UK’s Royal United Services Institute highlighted the efforts to which Russia had gone to reconstitute its presence in Europe, often using proxies. Those include members of the Russian diaspora as well as organised crime groups with which the Kremlin has long-standing ties.
A key strategic shift has also occurred, with so-called “Committees of Special Influence” coordinating intelligence operations country-by-country for the Kremlin, drawing together what were previously piecemeal efforts by the country’s fractious security services and other Kremlin players.
With Russia’s stepping up operations, security services have been on high alert over threats and are looking to identify targets they may have missed.
Questions have been raised, for instance, over a so-far unexplained explosion at a BAE Systems munitions factory in Wales that supplies shells used by Ukraine. In October 2014 a Czech arms depot where weapons for Kyiv were being stored was destroyed; Russian military intelligence agents were later revealed to have planted explosives at the site.
A huge fire broke out on Friday at a factory in Berlin owned by the arms company Diehl, which also supplies Ukraine. More than 160 specialist firefighters were called to tackle the blaze, with residents in a huge swath of the west of the capital told to keep windows closed due to possible toxic fumes.
“As ever with Russia, it’s wise not to look for a single explanation of why they are doing anything. There’s always a combination of things going on,” said Giles.
“These pinprick attacks we’ve seen so far are of course to create disruption, but they can also be used for disinformation. And then there is what Russia learns from these attacks if they want to immobilise Europe for real . . . They’re practice runs.”
The US, its NATO and EU allies, and many of its non-NATO and non-EU allies have been in a world war since at least 2011, if not 2009, which is when the shaping operations began in the information domain. This world war was declared by Putin at the 2007 Munich Security Conference. In his declaration of war he framed the conflict as the US and its EU and NATO allies having begun the way by attacking post-Soviet Russia. It’s key and overarching strategic objective is to remake the international order to be much more favorable for Putin, Russia, and Putin’s surrogates, trusted agents, and catspaws. Russia has largely waged this war by using the elements of national power (the DIME-FIL) other than military power – diplomatic, information, economic, financial, intelligence, and legal – while deemphasizing the use of military power except where it has been assessed that using it will be resource efficient. Which had been the case until Putin ordered a speed run on Kyiv in February 2022. As such, the effects of Putin’s world war have not been normally distributed and, as a result, often ignored as just politics or economics or business as usual. The leaders of the US, NATO, the EU as a whole and its member states, and a number of other states and societies need to get their heads around the fact that we are in a decades spanning world war, that the instigator of that world war shows no indications that he is going to relent anytime soon, and they need to get their citizenry focused on the reality of what is going on. Otherwise Putin will continue to wage his war. And he’ll continue to reap the benefits as Tymofiy Mylovanov, the head of the Kyiv School of Economics, explains via the Thread Reader App:
There are three popular arguments behind “de-escalation” doctrine with Russia. All three are wrong
1. Fear of nukes and World War 3
2. The person after Putin could be worse than Putin
3. The entire region might become destabilized. 1/
But first let’s admit the obvious: The US deescalation doctrine doesn’t work.
Think about it! There hasn’t been a single instance of Russia deescalating in response to any action by Ukraine or the West. 2/
The Black Sea gain deal, partial easing of sanctions on energy and agriculture, the U.S. restrictions on Ukraine to strike deep in Russia, delays in supply Ukraine with weapons that it asked for – none of it resulted in deescalation by Russia 5/Perhaps, the most telling example is the recent delay in the $61 billion U.S. support for Ukraine. From the perspective of Russia, it is within the U.S. deescalation doctrine. 6/The U.S. blamed it on its politics, and it is true – the politics were the reason. But regardless of the U.S. issues, a delay in this aid is a de-escalation or self-containment action. What did Russia do in response? Pushed forward, took cities, bomber civilians. 7/In the history of this war, whenever the West or Ukraine hesitated and gave Russia physical, geographical, and technological space to escalate – it did. 8/Russia understands force. It retreats when pushed back. It doesn’t attack when there is air defense and artillery to strike back. The de-escalation doctrine is fundamentally flawed because it assumes that Russia can be reasoned with, that they will respond to diplomacy. 9/But if they do, why do they declare Zelensky wanted this week? What kind of diplomatic or symbolic moves is this? A sign that they are open to diplomacy by undermining legitimacy of the Ukrainian president among its own domestic base? No, it is a move to commit not use diplomacy/Indeed, how could Russia negotiate with a wanted criminal?
Ok, so, in my view the West continues to be in self-denial. And it will pay dearly for its mistakes. 10/
Here is a case in point: U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan says the $61 billion in military aid will help Ukraine hold the line against Russian advances in 2024 and mount a counteroffensive in 2025 to recapture lost territory 11/
ft.com/content/6fd110…
What counteroffensive? In what political climate? It is uncertain if the U.S. will ever provide any additional support? With the coming elections, the U.S. has its hands full with its domestic politics. Regardless of the outcome, the election will be contested. 12/Consequently, there will be serious disruptions foreign policy continuity. The U.S. can’t honor the commitments it makes in foreign policy because of political instability domestically. Perhaps, it is time to admit it and become realistic. 13/The deescalation contrive requires commitment and strategic patience, which the U.S. doesn’t have.
So, if there is no patience and commitment, then the appropriate doctrine is sprint – to give Ukraine everything it needs ASAP, not “stand by as long as it takes” 14/
Let’s now turn back to the reasons that make de escalation doctrine so appealing.
The fundamental appeal is the myth of “we can go back to normal” with Russia not being a militaristic adventurous regional power. 15/
Of course, while the U.S. is debating with itself in policy and academic circles whether Russia can be reasoned with, Russia is increasing hostile actions against Europe. 16/ ft.com/content/c88509…
European intelligence agencies have warned that Russia is plotting violent acts of sabotage across Europe, including covert bombings, arson attacks, and damage to infrastructure, with little concern about civilian casualties. 17/Recent (suspected and proven) Russian sabotage incidents: arrests in Germany and the UK related to attacks on military and logistics sites and a suspected railway sabotage in Sweden 18/Then, there is also an attack on Estonia’s interior minister’s car, and warnings of possible attacks on French military sites. 19/Intelligence officials believe there has been a significant increase in Russian sabotage activity in Europe 20/NATO has expressed deep concern about growing “malign activities on allied territory” by Russia. The sabotage efforts are seen as part of a broader Russian campaign to exert maximum pressure on Europe through disinformation, hacking, and other means 21/Security are investigating recent incidents at munitions factories and arms depots supplying Ukraine.
So, yes, let’s talk deescalation. It has worked so well so far and is bound to be a success in the future. 22/
This brings me point 3 above: the fear that the region will become destabilized unless we de escalate.
This a good through, but it is naive and innocent. The problem is that the region is becoming destabilized anyway and de escalation efforts failed 23/
You can of course argue that the alternative is worse. That if the West tries to stand up to Russia it will escalate and destabilize even more. This is a theoretical argument that has no evidence. In fact, the events of the war in Ukraine prove the opposite 24/Look at the Russia Black Sea Fleet! When everyone was nice and tried to keep Russia in the gain deal, it used its warships left and right to pound Ukraine.
Once Russia pulled out, Ukraine pushed back the warships into their harbors with seadrones and sinker a bunch of them 25/
Russian response? None! Now Russian warships are not a threat to the Black Sea anymore. This is how real de escalation works. 26/Let’s now talk nukes and war world 3. Russia has threatened time and time again to use them if a red line is crossed.
This matter should be taken seriously. But the notion of the nuclear deterrence is mutual.27/
If the U.S. doesn’t commit to punish Russia extremely harsh for a use of nuke, then the U.S. cannot deter Russia from using nukes. Clear deterrence and deterrence to use nukes tactically has nothing to do with what happens in Ukraine, but with the US will to act and be unafraid/But it is in fact Russia who mastered tactical nuclear deterrence. It deters the U.S. and allies from acting by threatening to use nukes. The West has been played and has been unable to offer a decent response. 29/The only realistic response to Russia is in fact through Ukraine. If Russia is stopped and loses in Ukraine, the U.S. will show that Russia could be deterred
But that’s not the U.S. current thinking. 30/
Finally, the argument that a person after Putin can be worse is frankly laughable. With that type of logic every tyrant shouldn’t be dislodged. This is exactly the story that all tyrants tell people they oppress: the environment is tough, I am your best deal. 31/
dsd
Kharkiv:
My hometown today💔
Please speak out about Kharkiv and do not allow russian war crimes to become normalized. pic.twitter.com/opqNML0wqU— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 5, 2024
Donetsk Oblast:
Easter in Donetsk region, where Russians are actively advancing, destroying town after town. Ukrainian soldiers do not have opportunity to celebrate this day with their families, but they don’t lose faith.
5 May 2024 pic.twitter.com/NLIVSBHmgK
— Vasilisa Stepanenko (@VasilisaUKR) May 5, 2024
Bakhmut:
Gut-wrenching to see Bakhmut destroyed like this. I’ve seen countless such videos and photos now and it hits hard every time. This is what Russia has wrought on Ukraine. This video shows the central blocks of what used to be a vibrant city of 80,000 residents. It’s filmed heading… pic.twitter.com/czttwrbHiU
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 5, 2024
Gut-wrenching to see Bakhmut destroyed like this. I’ve seen countless such videos and photos now and it hits hard every time. This is what Russia has wrought on Ukraine. This video shows the central blocks of what used to be a vibrant city of 80,000 residents. It’s filmed heading east on Tsiolkovskoho Lane, then turning south on Nezalezhnosti (Independence) Street, and then east on Bazarna Street. I walked these streets every day for years. The vehicle drives by the back entrance to my second apartment; past New York Street Pizza; it scans toward the office where I saw many friends get married; past the central square and Palace of Culture; past the Silpo grocery and central market; then finally past the bus station.
Novoprovs’ke:
That tank went out like a warrior, taking all kinds of hits that'd send a T-90 to a fiery, immediate grave. We have thousands of these. We give 31.
— John Jackson (@hissgoescobra) May 5, 2024
Footage posted yesterday showing a Ukrainian M1A1 Abrams tank damaged/destroyed near Novopokrovs’ke. It was targeted by FPVs, a Lancet, Krasnopol artillery rounds, and a possible ATGM. The footage shows the crew abandoning the tank. A Bradley was also destroyed nearby.
https://t.me/lost_warinua/75376
https://t.me/rusich_army/14425
https://t.me/blackhussars/1828
https://t.me/btr80/16556
https://t.me/mod_russia/38255
The Avdiivka-Pokrovsk front:
The below map is bad for many reasons. But one particular reason it’s bad is that the Russians are now less than 10km/6 miles from the strategically important T0504 highway connecting key Donetsk region cities of Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk.… https://t.co/tquZtKU6A6 pic.twitter.com/yGRqoGRRNB
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 5, 2024
The below map is bad for many reasons. But one particular reason it’s bad is that the Russians are now less than 10km/6 miles from the strategically important T0504 highway connecting key Donetsk region cities of Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. Having fire control over it would make logistics difficult for Ukrainian forces on the eastern front. Also, as Russian forces strengthen their flanks and push north from Ocheretyne and Arkhanhelske, it will put the embattled towns of Niu-York and Toretsk under greater pressure and make it harder to supply troops holding them.
The Dnipro River, Kherson Oblast:
/2. Full video by 406th Brigadehttps://t.co/qz6Q4UJFdj pic.twitter.com/38Q5LptzFx
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 5, 2024
Kramatorsk:
Frontline Easter celebration: Easter cakes in ammo boxes and helmets instead of baskets.
This is how Easter is celebrated in Kramatorsk.
📷: armyinform, Donetsk region. pic.twitter.com/aHCPviuBWb
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 5, 2024
Odesa:
Russia has attacked Odesa with ballistic missiles several times this week. Despite anything, people there are baking Easter cakes and treating our Defenders.
The video shows only some of the Easter breads that the author of the video gave away at the Odesa railway station,… pic.twitter.com/U82EPt8gf3
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 3, 2024
Russia has attacked Odesa with ballistic missiles several times this week. Despite anything, people there are baking Easter cakes and treating our Defenders.
The video shows only some of the Easter breads that the author of the video gave away at the Odesa railway station, while the rest were sent to the soldiers at the frontlines.
📹: _yana_ukraine/TikTok
For those of you logistics enthusiasts, here’s a long accounting of Russia’s AFVs. Via the Thread Reader App:
1/ It’s time to show the rest of BMPs and BTRs left in Russian storage. Here’s my final thread on AFV counts.2/ Here you have the numbers at the remaining storage bases storing BMPs and BTRs which I haven’t covered until now, with outdated dates in orange. First BMPs:
4/ Here are the prewar quantities @HighMarsed and I found:
5/ After having posted in recent threads the total numbers of MT-LBs, MT-LBus, BRDM-2s and BTR-50s counted by me and @HighMarsed, and also the number of BMPs and BTR-60/70/80s at the bases analyzed along with @Vishun_military, now it’s time to look at the remaining armor left in storage.6/ As you can see, BMPs are mostly stored at the usual tank and IFV bases, such as the ones I already covered with newer footage bought by Vishun, aka the 22nd, 1295th, 111th, 2544th, 769th and 3018th/6018th.
7/ And also at the 349th and 103rd/2546th, which are gonna be covered in this thread.
8/ Most of the other BMPs are stored in artillery depots, like the 94th arsenal. Probably all armor stored there are artillery support vehicles like PRP-3s in the case of BMP-based armored vehicles:
9/ And some actual BMPs are also stored in small numbers in bases that HighMarsed and I are unsure if are storage or active bases: the 245th, 187th, 5349th/104th, 7022th, 230th, 237th, 243th (bis) and 247th. These small bases have been almost entirely depleted by now.
10/ In the case of BTRs, as you can see in the table, while there are many at tank/IFV and artillery depots, they are also spread out over a huge number of other storage facilities. I couldn’t find a clear pattern as to why is that.
11/ Now that that’s explained, let’s get into the actual analysis. First I’ll start with the 394th. Based on ground footage from a decade ago, equipment stored here is pretty rundown, but the lack of good footage make it impossible to prove it:
12/ This base was already covered by HighMarsed back in the day, and what he and @CovertCabal found was an increase in the number of stored BMPs:
13/ We discussed this while recounting together this base and came to the conclusion that footage of this storage base is always so mind-shattering that, although the spots we identified as more BMPs can’t be certainly identified as such, we rather overcount equipment than undercount it. This picture is proof enough to understand what I mean by that:14/ There has been speculation that Russia has been buying armor from Central Asian countries and that the increase in BMPs in the 349th, being so near from the Kazhak border, could be due to that.15/ However, a new article from Vishun proved that Kazakhstan’s stored equipment is still there since 2022, so maybe it’s just that Russia (understandably) is consolidating part of their stored equipment:
16/ All in all, the number of BTRs in the 349th in October 2023 decreased from 276 to 259, and the number of BMPs increased from 316 to 600 (284 more BMPs in total). Once again, consider what I said about us being unsure of our figures of this base due to the bad quality of satellite imagery.17/ Next is the 103rd/2546th base. The equipment stored in this one, like in the 349th, looks pretty rough already some years ago.
18/ In the case of this storage depot, in October 2023 the amount of BMPs decreased from 613 to 359, or 254 BMPs less. The number of BTRs apparently increased in 7 units, from 162 to 169. Some sections of the base are almost entirely empty after removing so many BMPs (and tanks).
19/ Now that the two main bases featuring on this thread have been shown, let’s take a quick look at other interesting ones. Let’s start with the 94th arsenal, with footage from January 2024. In this huge artillery base the number of PRP-3s and BTR-60 1V18/1V19s (unsure if the IDs are correct) has barely shifted. Just 26 less PRPs and, coincidentally, also 26 less 1V18/19s.
20/ No surprise here, as I already said in one of my first threads, these outdated vehicles are almost useless in a modern battlefield.
21/ Omsk also hosts another two storage yards inside the city, both holding more BTR-60s and 70s. Not a single one has been retrieved from these:
22/ I think I found some more specialized BTR-60 AND BMP-based vehicles at other artillery arsenals, such as the Sverosovkhoz or the 216th:
23/ With both the 349th-103rd/2546th and artillery bases covered, now let’s first see a bit of the decline of BMPs stored at minor bases. First, the former Ukrainian depot near Sevastopol.
24/ I recently found footage of this one thanks to @waffentraeger. This base now only stored a bunch of cannibalized and totally broken BMP-2s, MT-LBs and BTR-70s, although there were still 8 apparently well preserved BTR-70s here as of September 2023.25/ Another one is the 245th. Here there were only 31 BMPs left in July 2023, compared to 148 before the war:
26/ Another interesting base is the one at Novaya Stanitsa, in the outskirts of Omsk. This one could possibly be a training ground. Both BTRs and BMPs went down here. Here’s a good in detail analysis of said base:
27/ One final minor BMP storage base, and then we jump to BTRs: the 247th. Here they dropped from 50 to 14 by November 2022, including 3 clearly broken:
28/ Now let’s see the situation regarding BTR-60/70/80s. First, as you can see in my table, most of the stored BTRs are 70s. 60s appear to be mostly specialized versions, as they are almost exclusively stored at artillery depots.29/ BTR-80s were almost exclusively stored at the 22nd, and they are well on their way to extinction:
30/ So, let’s now take a look at some minor storage bases that hold BTRs. Let’s start with the one at Saigrajewo: all 198 BTR-70s stored here were cannibalized at some point during this war.
31/ This points to what I’ve said multiple times: BTR-70s are increasingly in use in the rear due to the increasing lack of more modern armor to replenish losses:
32/ Another interesting base is the 4998th. Here all 33 BTRs (some BTR-70s but mostly BTR-60 BTR-60 R-145BM) were gone by May 2022.
33/ Another BTR storage depot is the one near Rzhanitsa. 114 BTR-70s were stored here before the war, and all but one remained there by 2023 (Yandex doesn’t specify the date).
34/ At the 245th the number of BTR-70s also went down from 49 to just 2.
35/ One final base to look at and then let’s jump to the conclusion of this thread: the one near Yekaterimburg. Here the number of BTR-70s also stayed mostly the same: 58 before the war, 57 in September 2023.
37/ As I already said in my previous thread on BMPs and BTRs analyzing Vishun’s footage, the rate of BMP cannibalization and removal from storage has gone up recently. massivhttps://x.com/Jonpy99/status/178452389216741412238/ Even with most footage in this thread being a lot older than Vishun’s, you can see BMPs decreased in total from 6021 before the war to 4325 in the most recent footage. 1696 less BMPs in storage in a little over two years.39/ And a huge share of what remains are broken vehicles or specialized versions which aren’t useful in combat. And BMP-2s are almost gone, with most of what remains being BMP-1s.40/ In the case of BTRs, BTR-80s are too almost entirely gone from storage facilities, and BTR-70s have slowly started to appear in the frontlines, though IMHO it’ll still take for them to arrive in big numbers.41/ With over 1500 BTR-70s in storage as of latest footage, they can still replenish losses with these for a long time, although it remains to be seen how many can be converted to the modernized BTR-70M version, with BTR-80 rear hull section and turret and a diesel engine, far better than the baseline BTR-70.42/ I doubt we’ll see BTR-60s ever, not in significant amounts. Maybe at some point we’ll see some here and there, but that’s it. They’re too old, not as many as BTR-70s and probably mostly broken and/or cannibalized for spare parts to export to BTR-60 user countries.43/ And after this and the recent BTRZ update thread, that’s it for the counting and analysis of Russian AFV storage bases! Next and final thread should be about the odds of the Russian war effort in the medium/long term, based on how their industry will be able to cope with ever mounting losses and a smaller pool of replacement armor and spare parts and the like.44/ Wrt this table, remember what I said in my MT-LB thread: a lot of footage is pretty low, numbers are probably much lower now (I estimate 300-500 in the case of MT-LBs).
That’s enough for today.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets, so here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense:
Sunday sunny vibes.
📷: 241st @TDF_UA Brigade pic.twitter.com/mGw2Q4Q8rg
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 5, 2024
And a new episode of Patron’s official cartoon!
Open thread!
Words To Live By
This post is in: Open Threads
Words to live by, right? Also, gentlemen: The correct answer for us to the man or bear question is to live your life in such a way that women don’t want to choose the bear. — Definitely Danny (@SemperWry) May 5, 2024 Even on our crankiest day on Balloon Juice, I don’t think there’s anyone …
Late Night Epistemic Bubble Open Thread: Literary Predators / Parasites
This post is in: Books, Open Threads, Riveted By The Sociological Significance Of It All
Very boring for somebody in the NY lit scene to interview their friend about their debut book and write about how they're the voice of their generation, yet again, because they write in updated-alt-lit-internet-speak https://t.co/wrCg7j6OoV — Hannah Williams (@hkatewilliams) May 3, 2024 What is a voice of a generation?” Honor Levy asks me at Corner …
Late Night Epistemic Bubble Open Thread: Literary Predators / ParasitesPost + Comments (138)
It's unfortunately very realhttps://t.co/tDIW2GhFIC
— Roman 🦅 (@goodhorsemen) May 4, 2024
The NYTimes review of the latest Joyce Maynard / Lena Dunham / Lady Caroline Lamb ‘book’ is titled “Young, Cool, Coddled and Raised on the Internet” [gift link]:
… We count on our best young fiction writers to bring us news from the digital nervous system. Honor Levy, in “My First Book,” a collection of stories that is indeed her first book, does so with special bite and élan. What does she sound like when she plugs in? Here is the start of “Love Story,” this collection’s opener.
He was giving knight errant, organ-meat eater, Byronic hero, Haplogroup Rlb. She was giving damsel in distress, pill-popper pixie dream girl, Haplogroup K. He was in his fall of Rome era. She was serving sixth and final mass extinction event realness. His face was a marble statue. Her face was an anime waifu. They scrolled into each other. If they could have, they would have blushed, pink pixels on a screen. Monkey covering eyes emoji. Anime nosebleed GIF. Henlo frend. hiii.
… Levy maintains this tone, and this frazzled online love story, across nine pages. The cultural information piles up vertiginously. Reading Levy is what it must have felt like to read Ann Beattie on her generation in the early 1970s.
The bottom falls out of “Love Story,” or perhaps there was no floor to begin with. Online the young man is Pyramus, and the girl is Thisbe: “He’d burn a church for her.” He thinks, “I’m Ryan Gosling in Drive. I’m American Psycho. I’m Joker. I’m Taxi Driver.” About her, we read, “Her thousand-yard stare said she’d been on the carousel, in the trenches, and under the apple tree.” In real life, she’s a teen with her parents in an Olive Garden. He’s in a Wal-Mart aisle. They are about to withdraw back into their carapaces. And so here we are, convincingly lost amid America’s memes and mirrors in 2024, among what Joyce in “Finnegans Wake” called “the unhappitents of the earth.”
Levy is a young Bennington graduate from California, who has published stories in The New Yorker and New York Tyrant. She has a fine intake filter; her book unloads a ton of fresh writing. That’s the good news. The bad news is that she was encouraged to publish “My First Book” too soon. The falloff is steep between this book’s best stories and its lesser ones, a few of which I suspect were typed on a MacBook a long time ago.
In this collection’s finest work, Levy’s sentences are cold poetry of a sort. She deals individual cards rather than handles an entire deck. Her stories are vignettes, and the observations whoosh past your ears: “We wouldn’t be collectivizing the Adderall sector”; on drugs, “I could dig a hole to China and save the Uyghurs”; “Ronan Farrow is the only person who could truly relate to him”; “No one wants a Holocaust comparison, but isn’t this what we learned on those field trips we all had to take to museums of tolerance?”; “I wonder where the girls with mustache finger tattoos are now”; “Last night, Ivan and I were texting about all the hot art-world-adjacent millennial girls he knows who have been diagnosed with autism.” There are jokes about taking Greta Thunberg’s and Barron Trump’s virginity…
What pushes Levy’s stories beyond being merely on the level of smart magazine essays is the empathy you can sense below the starkness of her sentences. A typical observation: “When I’m at a party and I look across the room I can see everyone holding their red Solo cups and hurting.” Her characters are desperate and unfulfilled. They jockey for dominance in unlighted territory…
If “I wonder where the girls with mustache finger tattoos are now” is what qualifies as ‘smart magazine essay‘ material, it’s no wonder so many publications are in financial trouble. But I’m sure we’ll have all too many more chances to judge, since the main strength of all such lady writers is prolificity, and there’s always a market *somewhere* for narcissistic confessions from a very select socioeconomic demographic.
Every Time They Try to Drag Him Down, He Comes Back Stronger Open Thread
by WaterGirl| 84 Comments
This post is in: Open Threads
Will these corrupt Republicans in Tennessee ever learn? Tonight, after a 3 hour hearing, Republicans FAILED to kick me off the ballot. This is yet another attempt at political harassment after failing to silence, censure, intimidate, and expel our movement. But today the people of District 52 showed up and the truth prevailed! ✊🏾💛 pic.twitter.com/NGm6goRgHB …
Every Time They Try to Drag Him Down, He Comes Back Stronger Open ThreadPost + Comments (84)
For the Night Shift
by WaterGirl| 34 Comments
This post is in: Open Threads, Political Action, Political Fundraising, Targeted Political Fundraising 2023-24
Hey night shift peeps, not sure if you saw the afternoon post earlier this week. There were tons of posts that day, so this wasn’t on the front page by nighttime. You guys get a brand-new Balloon Juice angel match of $1,000. It’s Up To Us Now, Next Up: Michigan! We are raising funds for …
War for Ukraine Day 802: A Brief Saturday Night Update
by Adam L Silverman| 23 Comments
This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine
Just a brief housekeeping note: Rosie is continuing to improve. She’s putting weight back on, much more active, just marked improvement. She goes for her next oncology appointment on Monday and once the oncology vet does her exam and runs her bloodwork, we’ll find out how they decide to adjust her course of treatment. The …
War for Ukraine Day 802: A Brief Saturday Night UpdatePost + Comments (23)
The Russian Evil Does Not Diminish Its Desire to Bring Ruins Even on the Eve of Easter – Address by the President
4 May 2024 – 20:52
Dear Ukrainians!
Today, all day long, our defenders of the sky had a lot of work. Kharkiv, Odesa, the Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions. Only this morning our warriors have already shot down thirteen “Shahed” drones. During the day, Russian terrorists used 8 missiles of various types and almost 70 guided aerial bombs against our border communities and positions at the front. The Russian evil does not diminish its desire to bring ruins even on the eve of Easter. And it is only up to us – all of us and everyone who really helps Ukraine – to determine where these ruins will be stopped and when the occupier will lose.
Now I want to thank each warrior in our mobile firing groups, in the Air Force, in air defense units of other types and branches of the military forces – all those who are protecting now and will continue to protect the Ukrainian skies from Russian terror. It is important to be as attentive as possible these days.
I would also like to give special mention to the soldiers of the 110th separate mechanized brigade for shooting down another Russian Su-25 in the Donetsk region today. Good job, guys!
I thank all our warriors at the front, on combat missions, at combat posts – all those who despite the intense Russian pressure, despite all the difficulties of the current situation destroy the occupier. Every combat brigade of ours that holds its positions firmly, every warrior who ensures the result for himself, for his brothers-in-arms, and for his unit, defends the whole of Ukraine and preserves the opportunity for Ukraine not only to withstand but also to repel the occupier.
This morning Oleksandr Syrskyi delivered a long report. The Commander-in-Chief spoke particularly about our frontline positions, concrete actions of our units, and particular directions. I thank each of our warriors for their resilience! The Chief of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov also delivered a report today. We are aware of all the aspects of the current situation.
All of us should remember that Russia can only be forced to leave Ukraine alone. And this will happen. Our strength will definitely make it happen. The strength of our people, our military strength, the strength of our unity with the world, the strength of our partners – the strength of our diplomacy. I thank everyone in the team of our country – in my team, and in the teams of our partner countries – who are already working these days to ensure that in June all of us – all the countries of the world that value life – achieve a truly significant political result. The Global Peace Summit will be held, and it has to be successful, no matter how hard they try to sabotage it. Putin does not want peace, he is insane, and every day his state does new things to prove it. And to overcome this evil, to overcome the war, we need the maximum unity of the world. We achieve the results together.
I thank everyone who is fighting and working for the sake of our country and people! I thank everyone who stands with Ukraine! I thank everyone who really provides us with timely and strong support!
Glory to Ukraine!
The cost and the reason:
What you don't hear – anyone honking their horn. Everyone stops, everyone is quiet, people kneel. Each death matters because each life matters. https://t.co/0jfFMD1Qjf
— Timothy Snyder (@TimothyDSnyder) May 4, 2024
The reason:
Instead of a thousand words.
The goodbye kiss at the train station in Sloviansk.
📷: wojciechgrzedzinski pic.twitter.com/I9Iu1NYvzz
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 4, 2024
It’s Easter time in Ukraine. And it’s one of the darkest Easters in my lifetime.
I grew up with my Mom & Dad in a standard Soviet one-room apartment called “gostinka”. 12 m² at first. Then upgraded to 19 m². Every evening and every morning I heard my Mom pray. When I was 10,… pic.twitter.com/ajX0JFjmAk
— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) May 3, 2024
It’s Easter time in Ukraine. And it’s one of the darkest Easters in my lifetime.
I grew up with my Mom & Dad in a standard Soviet one-room apartment called “gostinka”. 12 m² at first. Then upgraded to 19 m². Every evening and every morning I heard my Mom pray. When I was 10, she said kiddo it’s time for you to learn praying, but I already knew how. I learned by ear.
I’m a Christian from the Soviet time, when being a believer was hard. Yet, I never had a harder time believing in God, than now, with darkness being in the march and with religious leaders of the world either accepting, or tolerating it. With russian orthodox (and Buddhist, and Muslim) leadership blessing it. With many “Christians first” aching to see Ukraine dead. With the Pope condemning the war but not even naming the one conducting it.
“If there is God, I hate him”, wrote someone recently on 🇺🇦 Twitter. It’s not how I feel, but I understand the despair. I remember Aleppo getting killed by Russians. Bomb after bomb. Block after block. Young Syrians tweeting for the last time. And the world just watching. It feels increasingly like that in some Ukrainian cities now.
All these “Christians first”, who embrace Ukraine’s killing – what do they have to do with Christ? They want to see Ukraine crucified. Would Christ want anybody crucified? For me, it’s an insane, dark, merciless version of Christianity.
Decent, kind, faithful people stand with Ukraine. Unkind, cruel, fake people – don’t. And, as it turns out, there’re A LOT of them. Like the Bible says, their name is legion.
With this thought, I go into the night of Good Friday, faithful that there will be another day for Ukraine. And thanking you – Christian or not, believers or not – who even amid this hour of darkness embrace light and refuse to be fooled by the devil.
PS. The photo is from around the time when I learned praying.
#Maythe4thBeWithYou!
On #StarWarsDay, our ambassador @MarkHamill recorded a special video address, reminding everyone about the importance of supporting🇺🇦in these dire times.
Thank you to Mark and all our donors for their Force, which is always with us💙💛https://t.co/sDcBnPZXbA pic.twitter.com/Bsk4jFITf9— UNITED24 (@U24_gov_ua) May 4, 2024
DC:
Russia spends about 25% of the state budget on militarization.
Putin continues to believe there is a threat to Russia from NATO and is willing to spend an increasing amount of the budget on armaments, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said at a congressional… pic.twitter.com/j0TROKSkbH
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 4, 2024
Russia spends about 25% of the state budget on militarization.
Putin continues to believe there is a threat to Russia from NATO and is willing to spend an increasing amount of the budget on armaments, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said at a congressional hearing.
“Putin has increased defense spending to nearly 7 percent of GDP, almost double the historical average. Russia’s defense budget now accounts for about 25% of all spending,” Haines said.
She also believes that China’s supply of dual-use goods to Russia has played in favor of Moscow and its defense industry. Because of this, RF is making progress in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions.
📹 Voice of America
Last night in comments there was a discussion of ATACMS. The material Jay posted was originally reported on 2 May 2024 in PoliticoPro’s Morning Defense and their PoliticoPro subscription only service. I get the former, thanks to a former client that signed me up, but I don’t subscribe to the latter. Here is what is available before the paywall kicks in:
The production lines making the Army Tactical Missile System are cranking out enough of the long-range missiles that the Pentagon is no longer worried about depleting its own stocks by sending them to Ukraine.
The update on the production came from Army acquisition chief Doug Bush on Thursday, who said that “a significant number of missiles that were ordered years ago … is now hitting at just the right time to be able to support how we’re supporting Ukraine without taking a hit to readiness.”
That increase in missile deliveries, which Bush said is a “surge” of dozens of missiles every few months, will last until at least the rest of the year. “There are a lot of ATACMS coming off that line,” he said.
Background: After two years of saying the U.S. didn’t have enough ATACMS to share with Ukraine, a small number of shorter-range versions were sent last fall, with a new batch of the longer, 200-mile-range missiles arriving in March.
What is below the paywall, and was in the email, was that Bush went on to say that they started producing a surplus on the ATACMS in December 2023, as a result the US is not worried about sending them to Ukraine depleting US stocks, especially as production of the munition replacing the ATAMCS is also now being produced.
I am very glad we’re sending them now. I’m very glad that Bush and his people were able to get the defense industrial base sorted ahead of schedule. But we didn’t increase what we were sending, using emergency executive authority, until March 2024. More and longer range ATACMS in March 2024 are great. They were absolutely essential in December 2023.
The head of the Kyiv School of Economics also brings us news that the Biden administration has been waving sanctions on Russian banks. From the Thread Reader App:
Recently, there’ve been reports of the U.S. easing Russian sanctionsIs this a carrot& stick game after the passing the aid? Is this signaling to Russia that the U.S. is willing to “de escalate” if… Or is this a sign of some covert negotiations with Russia?
The reports said that U.S. now allows transactions related to energy with the Russian banks.The problem is that it is quite misleading.
It is true that the sanctions have been eased relative to the start of the invasion. 2/
But the decision is not new and happened many months agoWhat is immediately new is that easing of the sanctions s works through an exemption. And this exemption was set to expire last week. The U.S. renewed it until November. 3/
So, yes, the sanctions technically are eased because they were supposed to come into effect. But the U.S. keeps doing it and now it has become a technicality.What is really the exemption? The U.S. allows transactions related to energy. 4/
Energy is broadly understood as “extraction, production, refinement, liquefaction, gasification, regasification, conversion, enrichment, fabrication, transport, or purchase of petroleum, including crude oil” but even 5/“coal, wood, or agricultural products used to manufacture biofuels, or uranium in any form, as well as the development, production, generation, transmission, or exchange of power, through any means, including nuclear, thermal, and renewable energy sources 4/The banks that are de-sanctioned are:The Central Bank of Russia
Vnesheconombank
Otkritie
Sovcombank Open Joint Stock Company
Sberbank of Russia;
VTB Bank
Alfa-Bank
Rosbank
Bank Zenit
Bank Saint-Petersburg 5X
It is the slow rolling of the decision-making of what to supply and when, as well as waving sanctions for no good or apparent reasons that were all too leaky to begin with, that speaks more loudly and clearly about the Biden administration’s policy and strategy than the actual official statements made by administration officials.
Germany:
German Chancellor Scholz answered a question about the reasons for his reluctance to transfer long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine:
"There are weapons that can only be supplied if there is control over everything that is done with them. And you can't have a debate here, as if… pic.twitter.com/f7bOzJKnBb
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 3, 2024
German Chancellor Scholz answered a question about the reasons for his reluctance to transfer long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine:
“There are weapons that can only be supplied if there is control over everything that is done with them. And you can’t have a debate here, as if between friends, “Don’t you trust me?” Of course I trust my friend. But still, I wouldn’t give all the weapons to everyone,” Scholz said.
Weapons save our lives and bring the end of the war in Europe closer.
Delay, partial assistance and procrastination are lost lives of Ukrainians.
And in the long run, it means spreading the war further, thousands of new victims and lost lives.I know that Germany is a true friend of Ukraine. Germany has recently given Ukraine another Patriot as well as so much other military aid. So I believe that Ukraine will receive Taurus missiles at a time when it can really make a difference on the battlefield.
For want of a nail!
Odesa:
⚡️Governor: Russian missile attack on Odesa Oblast injures at least 3.
The attack damaged civilian infrastructure in the Odesa district, according to Odesa Oblast Governor Oleh Kiper.https://t.co/qBwNvKYDcz
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 4, 2024
The Donbas:
A panorama of massive shelling in one of the frontline areas in Donbas, filmed by a copter.
Hell on earth… https://t.co/kH5gsGduGP pic.twitter.com/zYW7GhOgI1
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 4, 2024
The Avdiivka front:
FPV drone operators of the 47th Brigade destroy Russian assault group on the Avdiivka fronthttps://t.co/QIVv7OaJuz pic.twitter.com/Y3OTrHSyHV
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 4, 2024
Not quite sure where in Ukraine this is:
Rare footage of tank battle. A column of two Russian BMPs and one tank goes on the attack. The tank of the 58th brigade of Ukraine is there to meet them. A tank of the 58th brigade makes a shot and destroys a Russian tank that was at the head of the column, after which two… pic.twitter.com/5MfdMpPw5q
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 4, 2024
Vuhledar:
From the Thread Reader App:
Folks! My friend Andrii from the 58 brigade told me that Russians at his direction are constantly attacking their positions near Vuhledar.The 5 tank brigade, 37 motorised brigade and 40 marine brigade are attacking and losing a lot of armed vehicles🧵👇
Damaged and abandoned T-72B3, destroyed BMP-1, damaged and abandoned T-72B3 and BREM-1, another destroyed T-72B3 and MTLB and destroyed T-80BV:Right now fellas from the Ukrainian 58 brigade desperately need at least two drones (one is 3E).If it’s possible, please, help:
adsd
Belgorod Oblast, Russia:
A Russian aircraft that was conducting strikes with guided bombs on Kharkiv dropped a bomb on the Russian city of Belgorod.
It fell right on a residential sector and exploded. Sooner or later it was bound to happen.
Governor Gladkov did not disclose the cause of the explosion,… pic.twitter.com/2eOxFVoB0O
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 4, 2024
A Russian aircraft that was conducting strikes with guided bombs on Kharkiv dropped a bomb on the Russian city of Belgorod.
It fell right on a residential sector and exploded. Sooner or later it was bound to happen.
Governor Gladkov did not disclose the cause of the explosion, but reported that 30 private residences and 10 cars were damaged in the city, and the residents of the house that sustained the most serious damage were “miraculously” survived.
Putin, his trusted agents, his surrogates, and the Russian educational system they have further perverted from what was inherited from the Soviet Union is leaving heavily into the mythology and factually inaccurate history of the Great Patriotic War, the cult of the Immortals, and Pobedobesie.
I've never seen Easter cakes like this.
They are from Russian schoolchildren of Kursk school number 58, sent to Russian soldiers at the frontlines.
The writing says – kill Nazis.
That's very sad, actually. https://t.co/jMgjr2CfgI pic.twitter.com/2ivyRzJ4ia
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 4, 2024
From last May:
THREAD.
It's nearly 9 May, when #Russia is celebrating "Victory Day". It's time to talk about #Pobedobesie – a militaristic fetishisation of WW2 in Putin's Russia.
1/x pic.twitter.com/UIqQzTAAYr
— Alex Kokcharov (@AlexKokcharov) May 8, 2023
Here’s the rest from the Thread Reader App:
#Pobedobesie is a pejorative term used to describe the “hyperbolic celebrations” of Victory Day in #Russia. This has been dubbed the Victory Cult.#Pobedobesie includes weaponisation of the legacy of World War II to justify #Russia‘s aggressive policies and an increase of militarism, using the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany for propaganda purposes.Significant part of #Pobedobesie is militarisation of education in Russia, including at preschool and primary school levels.Children aged as young as 3-4 yo are dressed in military uniforms, and the idea of military service is “normalised”.
4/xWithin #Pobedobesie, Russian children are indoctrinated in the idea that their main motivation should be “to become defenders of the Motherland”.They are told that “it’s not scary to die”. And parents and teachers applaud such “lessons”:
5/x
https://twitter.com/adagamov/status/1655220272843169793/video/1
According to @irgarner, Putin has reconstructed the Soviet “cult of the Great Patriotic War” in a “manner that has all the hallmarks of a religion”, and that the state’s cult has been incorporated into Orthodox Christianity, and vice versa”6/x
#Pobedobesie occasionally takes on comic form: with “patriotic” bread, vodka and other products.But overall #Pobedobesie remains a dangerous cult of militaristic fetishisation, which drives Russia’s aggression against neighbours, most notably against Ukraine, which is seeking freedom and European integration.8/x
And here’s a bonus for you: #Pobedobesie in #Russia|n-occupied #Sevastopol, in Ukraine’s #Crimea peninsula• • •
And here's a bonus for you: #Pobedobesie in #Russia|n-occupied #Sevastopol, in Ukraine's #Crimea peninsulapic.twitter.com/lyhq5hEOrd
— Alex Kokcharov (@AlexKokcharov) May 8, 2023
And a couple of follow ons:
Please show me similar photos from the UK: these are scenes in Russia in early May every year. pic.twitter.com/JkyTOX2C8o
— Alex Kokcharov (@AlexKokcharov) May 9, 2023
The commemoration of WW2 victims has nothing to do with this militaristic orgy that Russia is doing every May.
These are real adverts for 9 May parties in Russia: pic.twitter.com/IFY3FLduUw
— Alex Kokcharov (@AlexKokcharov) May 9, 2023
Well that’s one way to celebrate Victory in Europe Day! As they say in the Ranger Regiment: That’s a technique!
That’s enough for tonight!
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets tonight. So here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Army Cats and Dogs feed:
“Rama” and her family pic.twitter.com/orPINSrnW5
— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) April 30, 2024
New life on frontline pic.twitter.com/bHqURZKnXS
— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) April 30, 2024
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns 🧚🏻🧚🏻🧚🏻 #песпатрон
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