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Saturday Morning Open Thread: Rebuilding the Cathedral of Notre Dame

by Anne Laurie| December 7, 20246:38 am| 118 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Religion, Something Good Open Thread

The whole of Western society has enjoyed this transformation–more or less–over the past 50 years, thanks to anti-pollution efforts & the marginalization of cigarette smoking. But we are apparently blind to all the ways our lives are better than they've ever been before

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— Chatham Harrison is tending his garden (@chathamharrison.bsky.social) December 5, 2024 at 6:06 PM

Notre Dame's reopening will begin with an archbishop's knock on the doors. Here's what comes next

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— Associated Press ?? (@asssociatedpress.bsky.social) December 6, 2024 at 12:23 AM

The reopening this weekend of Notre Dame is a succession of ceremonies to breathe life back into the iconic cathedral and celebrate the recovery from its devastating fire in 2019.

Forecasts of stormy winds forced a late change in plans Friday, moving all of Saturday’s events indoors. Still, the weekend’s high points are expected to be the ritualized reopening of the cathedral’s massive doors, the reawakening of its thunderous organ and the celebration of the first Mass. For both France and the Catholic Church, the televised and tightly scripted ceremonies will be an opportunity to display can-do resilience and global influence…

During part one of Notre Dame’s rebirth on Saturday evening [2pm EST], Archbishop Laurent Ulrich will lead more than 1,500 guests through a reopening service. Part two, on Sunday, is an inaugural Mass, with special rites to consecrate the main altar.

On Saturday, Ulrich will first reopen Notre Dame’s great doors — by tapping them with his crosier, or bishop’s staff.

The staff was created for the occasion by designer Sylvain Dubuisson. The wood — bearing visible black traces from the blaze — came from pieces of the cathedral roof that collapsed in the inferno, Dubuisson told The Associated Press.

In response to the archbishop’s door-knocks, the cathedral will erupt into song, its choirs once again filling the cavernous spaces.

That back-and-forth will happen three times and the doors will then open…

The voice of Notre Dame’s great organ hasn’t been heard in public since the blaze coated the nearly 8,000 pipes with toxic dust released when the lead roofing burned.

After the door-opening rites, Ulrich will reawaken the giant instrument. He’ll address it directly with a series of eight incantations, starting with “Awaken, organ, sacred instrument: Sing the praise of God.”

That prompt will launch a conversation with the organ, with four organists (Olivier Latry, Vincent Dubois, Thibault Fajoles and Thierry Escaich) taking turns to play its responses.

They’ll be perched high above the congregation, seated at the newly renovated giant console that controls the instrument — through five keyboards of 56 notes each, foot pedals for 30 notes, and 115 stops…

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The organ has a vast palette of sounds to play with. The deepest of its 7,952 pipes are as large as a human torso, producing a low rumbling sound. The smallest are no larger than a pen.

The painstaking re-tuning of the organ — after it was dismantled, cleaned and put back together — took around six months, with tuners working at night so they could tweak the notes in silence…

At the reopening, billionaire donors from France and beyond will rub shoulders with other guests far less fortunate.

They’ll include “the poorest among Parisians, all those who are helped by charitable associations and who will be several hundred inside the cathedral,” Rev. Olivier Ribadeau Dumas, Notre Dame’s rector, told AP…

Notre Dame in full bling mode this evening….

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— Nazish Munch (@nazishmunch.bsky.social) December 5, 2024 at 1:31 PM

Inside the restored Notre Dame cathedral – in pictures www.theguardian.com/world/galler…

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— Greg Jenner (@gregjenner.bsky.social) December 6, 2024 at 8:42 AM

Notre Dame review – glorious resurrection is as close to time travel as it gets

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— The Guardian (@theguardian.com) December 6, 2024 at 8:19 AM

… The herculean project has seen 2,000 oak trees gathered from forests across France, hewn into beams with axes and pegged into great trusses by hand using medieval tools. It has witnessed over a thousand cubic metres of limestone being hauled into place, chiselled into leaping arches and gurning gargoyles, as well as 4,000 square metres of lead, rolled, crimped and moulded into ornamental roofing. It has also been the stage for a celebrity wallet-waving spectacle, seeing French luxury goods billionaires racing to outdo each other in the size of their donations – reaching almost €900m (£749m) just two days after the fire, endowing the cathedral with a substantial maintenance kitty for years to come.

The astonishing and lavishly funded endeavour has been a lifeline for endangered craftsmanship, single-handedly reviving a host of specialist building industries across France and beyond. The project mobilised a 2,000-strong army of master masons, carpenters, roofers, glassworkers, organ restorers and painting conservators, many using centuries-old techniques. This elaborate medieval cosplay has returned the majestic pile to just the way it was before the 2019 fire – only cleaner, brighter and more colourful than ever.

“Even more beautiful than before,” is how Macron describes it, “in the renewed radiance of the blond stones and the colour of the chapels.” It’s a surreal sight. The seamless surfaces of creamy stonework have been bleached of their centuries of sooty patina, now looking as if they have been carved from a single slab of butter. The painted side chapels glow with the blazing Technicolor and gilding of a Las Vegas casino. The result might feel too Disneyish for those who prefer their cathedrals aged and timeworn, but the effect is as close to time-travel as it comes, as if the medieval guilds had just left the building.

As crowds gather outside to gawp up at the freshly carved tracery and gleaming leadwork, however, they might not be aware that the most radical part of the entire project is actually right beneath their feet. The biggest impact on Paris will not be found in the rebuilt forêt of oak hidden away in the attic, or the ornamental rooftop cresting, but in how the fire has provided a catalyst to rethink the surrounding area as a model for climate-friendly public space on an increasingly scorching planet…

With an eye on Paris’s wider urban greening efforts, which have been a chief hallmark of socialist mayor Anne Hidalgo’s tenure, the project will also act as a laboratory for future landscaping work elsewhere in the city. While the main plaza will see an existing avenue of horse chestnut trees extended along the street, encouraging people to take a full circuit around the cathedral, a former car parking area to the east will become an experimental arboretum of different species.

“We imagine it as a living climatic laboratory,” says Smets, “to see how well different trees perform over time.” After the city’s plane trees suffered from beetle infestations, and others have been stricken by drought, the pressure is on to determine which varieties will thrive in the rapidly changing climate. “This is such an important, symbolic site,” he adds. “But it is also an opportunity to reimagine public space as a way to create a better outdoor microclimate – looking to the past to inform the city of the future.”

Saturday Morning Open Thread: Rebuilding the Cathedral of Notre DamePost + Comments (118)

War for Ukraine Day 1,017: A Brief Friday Night Update

by Adam L Silverman| December 6, 20247:55 pm| 19 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A quick housekeeping note: I have now progressed to the inevitable sinus infection. I’ve got the first dose of the antibiotics in, but my head feels like it’s in a vice and I feel munky funky! I’m going to just run through a few basics and then go and get horizontal before my system does an involuntary reset.

There are a couple of items that I want to highlight that came up last night in the comments. First, I am very much in agreement with Gin & Tonic’s remark that what we’re seeing in Georgia is reminiscent of the EuroMaidan movement/Revolution of Dignity in Ukraine. This is one of the reasons I’m including information about what is happening in Georgia in the updates right now. The other gets to Jay’s answer to YY_Sima Qian, which is the reason things have gotten to where they are in Georgia is that a Russian aligned Georgian oligarch basically bought himself a political party and then a governing coalition. Which is another reason I’m including information regarding events in Georgia in these updates.

There is no address from President Zelenskyy posted as of 7:30 PM EST.

“Drone-missile ‘Peklo’. Our, Ukrainian weapon, which already has confirmed combat use. Today, the first batch was transferred to our Defense Forces. Now the task is to increase production and use.” – Zelenskiy

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) December 6, 2024 at 7:39 AM

Today is (was) Saint Nicholas Day in Ukraine.

Sviatyi Mykolai (Saint Nicholas) brings hope to a land at war, where even the smallest act of kindness becomes a miracle. As our Armed Forces fight for freedom, today is a day to believe in good — and perhaps, to be someone’s quiet miracle.

Art by Nikita Titov

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) December 6, 2024 at 4:07 AM

That didn’t stop the Russians from bombarding the Ukrainians.

UPD Zaporizhzhia. Nine civilians killed and six injured.
#UkrainianView

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) December 6, 2024 at 12:35 PM

Russia struck Kryvyi Rih with a ballistic missile, killing at least 2 people and injuring at least 8 others, including a 6-year-old child.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 6, 2024 at 10:48 AM

More after the jump.

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War for Ukraine Day 1,017: A Brief Friday Night UpdatePost + Comments (19)

War for Ukraine Day 1,016: A Brief Thursday Night Update

by Adam L Silverman| December 5, 20246:13 pm| 13 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A quick housekeeping update: my sinuses are kicking my dupa. So, tonight’s update is going to just be the basics so I can go Navage (for the nose), take a hot shower, get horizontal, and watch rugby until I fall asleep.

Today marks the 30th anniversary of the most useless waste of paper in human history: the Budapest Memorandum.

I hope no one ever follows Ukraine’s steps and disarms in exchange for promises of acceptance and security. It only leads to disdain, dismissal, and death.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 5, 2024 at 1:43 PM

Here’s the butcher’s bill from yesterday:

⚡️ Russian attacks across Ukraine kill 2, injure 6 over past day.

Russian attacks over the past day killed at least two people and injured six others across Ukraine, regional authorities reported on Dec. 5.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 5, 2024 at 4:26 AM

From The Kyiv Independent:

Editor’s note: The article was updated with casualties from Kherson Oblast.

Russian attacks over the past day killed at least four people and injured 16 others across Ukraine, regional authorities reported on Dec. 5.

Ukraine’s Air Force intercepted 30 of 44 Russian drones launched overnight. Russia also fired two Iskander-M ballistic missiles during the assault, the Air Force reported.

In Kharkiv Oblast, a Russian strike hit a residential area, killing a 40-year-old man. His mother and another woman suffered acute stress reactions. In Kupiansk, a drone strike wounded a 65-year-old man, who was hospitalized, Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov said.

In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Russian attacks killed an 88-year-old woman and injured a 64-year-old man. According to the Office of the Prosecutor General, the attack also damaged private homes and vehicles.

In Donetsk Oblast, Russian forces wounded four residents—three in Kostiantynivka and one in Shevchenkove, Governor Vadym Filashkin said.

Russian attacks against Kherson Oblast killed two people and injured 10 over the past day, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported.

Ukraine’s Air Force and Defense Forces intercepted drones targeting Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, and Odesa oblasts, where no casualties were reported.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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A Mere Signature by Any State or Any Assurances or Promises Are Not Enough for Security; What’s Needed Are Effective Guarantees – Address by the President

5 December 2024 – 19:17

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Lots of events today. The decision to impose sanctions on those in Georgia who are steering the country toward Russia. It is important that the same principled decisions are also made by our partners in the world – by Europeans, Americans, and generally by everyone who values the independence of nations and the rule of law. Selling out Georgia’s interests to Putin will not do Ivanishvili any good.

Second, my gratitude goes out to volunteers – every individual in Ukraine helping the army and everyone worldwide who stands with Ukraine. Today, I honored representatives of the volunteer community with the “Golden Heart” – a special award from the President of Ukraine.

Third, I spoke with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. We discussed supplies for our warriors, focusing on the pace and volume of deliveries. We are coordinating our positions to end the war sooner and ensure lasting peace.

And one more thing – a thing that was of great significance when it was signed, but today does not even deserve many words. Today marks thirty years of the Budapest Memorandum. Ten years of war. Not a single day did this document work. And because of this, everyone in the world will now know that a mere signature – by any state – or any assurances or promises are not enough for security. What’s needed are effective guarantees – real alliances and a realistic security foundation within the country. Weapons that enable defense and deterrence of the enemy. And unity that helps endure even the most challenging moments. We are working on every element of security. Thank you to everyone who is helping, and to all our people making it possible!

Glory to Ukraine!

This is why we cant just give up and freeze the war

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— Sofia (@sofiaukraini.bsky.social) December 5, 2024 at 9:58 AM

The cost:

Oh god,

I was just driving by our city cemetery in Bucha, and I saw this.

The loved ones of this fallen soldier installed a small Christmas tree with electric lights by his grave.

God I hate this war, it is just physically painful to see such sad things.

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— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) December 5, 2024 at 9:21 AM

Georgia:

Fearless and fabulous in #Georgia!💋

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— Sofia (@sofiaukraini.bsky.social) December 3, 2024 at 11:03 AM

🗣️”I am here with all these people because we all want the same thing – a free country. If you hear us, we would really use your support because every tiny drop in our water is huge for us,” Mariam from the #GeorgiaProtests – Why People in #Georgia Are Taking to the Streets

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) December 4, 2024 at 4:05 PM

🗣️”I think it is very clear: we don’t want to live in Russia – a country where we can’t express our emotions freely. So, we must stand here today, tomorrow, and every day till we get our freedom back,” Ani from #GeorgiaProtest: Why People in Georgia Are Taking to the Streets

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) December 5, 2024 at 4:57 PM

🗣️”Our country is occupied by Russia and our pro-Russian govt stopped having conversations with Europe; they want us to be under Russia’s influence. We need the world’s support, especially Europe’s – please don’t give up on us,” Tako, #GeorgiaProtests: Why People in Georgia Are Taking to the Streets

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) December 5, 2024 at 3:31 PM

The firework beauty is back. However, it does not seem like the police are triggered by it this time. God knows whether it’s a tiring out strategy, or inability to proceed with crackdowns these last two days – there are various rumors of internal cracks. #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 5, 2024 at 4:24 PM

📷 Tabula Media

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 5, 2024 at 4:25 PM

🇬🇪Georgian protesters burn Russian flag. www.facebook.com/watch/?v=428…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) December 5, 2024 at 5:28 AM

This is how one of the opposition leaders Aleko Elisashvili was taken into the detention center – healthy, walking. He is hospitalized now, heavily beaten, with most likely a broken rib. Detention car beatings, now prison beatings. #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 5, 2024 at 4:02 PM

Popular show-woman Ruska Makashvili leaves top regime propaganda media Imedi TV, says “everything has its limits! Enough with these lies!”
Reportedly, morning and afternoon shows also have a trouble.
#GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 5, 2024 at 3:25 PM

Sorry, correction: morning and afternoon shows at Rustavi 2, another propaganda media.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 5, 2024 at 3:28 PM

I spoke to CNN International that the EU halt was just a trigger in the broader frustration with the illegitimate regime that stole the October elections; that we demand new, free and fair elections under international administration, and that this is our independence struggle. #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 5, 2024 at 2:55 PM

Clashes in Kutaisi resulted in the loss of consciousness of a 14-year-old, who was later detained. #GeorgiaProtests
📷 Imereti Press

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 5, 2024 at 12:30 PM

Aleksandre Keshelashvili, a journalist at @Publika_ge, recalls that the police responded he had to be brutally beaten “precisely because he was a journalist.”
#GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 5, 2024 at 10:29 AM

“In 2025, over 30,000 DeepStrike UAVs will bolster Ukraine’s defenders, some funded by international partners. These advanced drones operate autonomously over long ranges, delivering precise strikes on enemy targets.” Umerov stated.
t.me/c/1650479418…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 5, 2024 at 10:55 AM

Donetsk Oblast:

Ukrainian troops have driven Russian units out of Novyi Komar village in Donetsk Oblast; At least six Ukrainian mayors and community heads remain in Russian captivity; and more.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 5, 2024 at 3:47 PM

From The Kyiv Independent:

Ukrainian troops have driven Russian units out of Novyi Komar village in Donetsk Oblast, Nazar Voloshyn, the spokesperson for the Khortytsia group of forces, told Suspilne media on Dec. 5.

Novyi Komar, a village with a pre-war population of less than 500 people, is located about 50 kilometers (31 miles) west of the Russian-occupied town of Vuhledar.

“The enemy was driven out of there,” Voloshyn said. “The village of Novyi Komar is under the control of the (Ukrainian) Defense Forces.”

A day before, crowd-sourced monitoring website DeepState reported that soldiers of the 48th Separate Assault Battalion regained control of the village. Russian forces suffered heavy losses, and some Russian soldiers fled to the highway near the village, according to DeepState.

At the same time, Ukraine’s counteroffensive actions are not as significant as Russia’s ongoing assaults in the country’s east. Russia captured 234.79 square kilometers (90 square miles) in one week in mid-November, which is the highest number in 2024, according to the independent Russian outlet Agentstvo.

Ukrainian officials have also increasingly raised concerns about a possible new Russian push in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in the south, just as Russian forces continue to advance in the east, focusing their efforts near Pokrovsk and Kurakhove in Donetsk Oblast.

Russia’s advance has picked up pace over the past months as Ukraine’s military struggles to replenish its ranks, and Western arms are not flowing in as fast as Kyiv has hoped.

Fighters of the RUbPAK “VYRIY,” 241st Brigade of Territorial Defense worked on the Russians, in the village of Novyi Komar.
t.me/c/1469021333…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 5, 2024 at 7:34 AM

💪Russians were driven out of Novyi Komar, north of Velyka Novosilka. DeepState analysts reported that the 48th Separate Mechanized Brigade drove the enemy out, suffering heavy losses and capturing enemy marines.
t.me/c/1154166453…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 5, 2024 at 6:43 AM

Also, Donetsk Oblast:

Some nice news amongst the chaos. Volunteers delivered food, gifts for children and served hot meals to residents of Donetsk region❤️

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— Sofia (@sofiaukraini.bsky.social) December 5, 2024 at 7:28 AM

The Dnipro:

With attention focused on Moscow’s grinding advances in Donbas, and Ukraine’s efforts to hold onto Russian territory in Kursk Oblast, one area of the front lines continues to see daily battles but little coverage.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 5, 2024 at 3:32 PM

Here are the details from The Kyiv Independent:

With attention focused on Moscow’s grinding advances in Donbas, and Ukraine’s efforts to hold onto Russian territory in Kursk Oblast, one area of the front lines continues to see daily battles but little coverage.

Ukrainian and Russian forces are locked in an ongoing fight over a series of small islands in the Dnipro River, control of which would allow Moscow’s forces to intensify attacks on the embattled city of Kherson in southern Ukraine.

“Local clashes take place (for the Dnipro islands) every day,” Viktor Kevliuk, a retired military officer and defense expert, told the Kyiv Independent.

“The enemy is fighting for the islands with the 61st Marine Brigade of the Northern Fleet — Ukrainian marines are countering them.”

Kevliuk adds that neither side is fully in control of the islands, though he says Ukraine “has the advantage” in an ongoing fight which sees both sides trading intense artillery fire and drone attacks.

“In the context of all combat clashes (along the front line), the southern direction is relatively the calmest, but only when compared to other situations along the battle line,” he said.

But on Dec. 4, Kherson Oblast Governor Oleksandr Prokudin told the Financial Times that Russia “wants to launch another offensive” in the direction of Kherson, and had assembled “300 boats to cross the river,” suggesting this relatively quiet part of the front line may be about to heat up.

“Controlling the Dnipro islands means controlling the Dnipro River and its coastline,” Serhiy Bratchuk, spokesman for the “South” unit of the Ukrainian Volunteer Army, a volunteer military formation, told Ukrainian Radio last month.

In the fall of 2022, a Ukrainian counteroffensive succeeded in pushing Russian forces out of the city of Kherson, and other regional settlements on the west bank of the Dnipro River.

Since then, Russian and Ukrainian positions have been largely separated by the wide, swampy river dotted by numerous small islands.

Vladyslav Voloshyn, spokesperson for the Southern Defense Forces, said on Nov. 28 that Russian forces are constantly trying to gain footholds on and around the Dnipro islands.

“(Russian troops) are doing this to seize bridgeheads on the west bank and draw some of our forces and resources there, just as we did in Krynky,” he said.

The day before, Voloshyn also said Russian troops were massing on the Tendra and Kinburn spits, in an effort to control the mouth of the Dnipro.

Voloshyn said Ukrainian forces maintained fire control over positions in the area, and were continuing to fend off the Russian attacks, a view shared by experts who spoke to the Kyiv Independent.

“(Russian forces) are trying to storm with small forces to constrain Ukraine’s reserves, forcing Ukrainian troops to use artillery shells. In this way, Russia aims to weaken our defensive line,” Dmytro Zhmailo, a military expert and executive director of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center, told the Kyiv Independent.

“However, since our artillery and FPV drones are actively operating in this region, the front line along the Dnipro is more secure. Therefore, these provocation operations will be costly for the Russians,” he added.

Zhmailo said another objective for Moscow’s troops was to maintain pressure along as much of the front line as possible to stretch Ukrainian forces.

“Through these actions, Russia also seeks to prevent Ukrainian forces from reinforcing Kursk, Kurakhove, and other key areas where the enemy is advancing,” he said.

But Prokudin’s comments on Dec. 4 suggest Russian forces are about to increase pressure in the area.

Voloshyn, also speaking on Dec. 4, said Russia is now training assault groups in occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, citing Ukraine’s intelligence data, adding Moscow’s troops are practising how to cross water obstacles and transfer landing groups.

Speaking to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), he reassured that there “has not been a single successful attempt at this assault or enemy crossing in a month.”

“The Ukrainian Defense Forces are now reliably defending the city of Kherson and Kherson Oblast, and the entire west bank,” he added.

More at the link, including pictures and maps.

Kyiv:

The main Christmas tree of Kyiv is about to kick-start the holiday season tomorrow.

The third Christmas of the full-scale war when we have rather humble trees and no celebrations in the historical part of Kyiv.

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— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) December 5, 2024 at 9:52 AM

The Kursk cross border offensive:

FPV strike on Russian assault group on UAZ Bukhanka which was trying to attack Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) December 5, 2024 at 1:41 PM

Kharkiv:

The Bulsae-4, a modern North Korean long-range self-propelled anti-tank missile system, was destroyed by an FPV drone. The video showcases the work of the “Vitrolom” crew on the Kharkiv front.
t.me/BBS3AB/412

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 5, 2024 at 11:57 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos posted tonight. I think this is the next episode of Patron’s official animated series that I have not posted here yet.

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,016: A Brief Thursday Night UpdatePost + Comments (13)

War for Ukraine Day 1,015: A Brief Wednesday Night Update

by Adam L Silverman| December 4, 20249:02 pm| 16 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

It was another long day, so I’m just going to run through the basics tonight.

Here’s the Russian butcher’s bill from the last month’s worth of Shahed drone attacks.

For the third month in a row, the number of Shahed-type kamikaze drones launched by Russia at Ukraine surged to record levels.

According to figures from Ukraine’s Air Force, Moscow deployed a total of 2,576 drones during November, up from 2,023 the month before.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 4, 2024 at 2:16 PM

From The Kyiv Independent:

For the third month in a row, the number of Shahed-type kamikaze drones launched by Russia at Ukraine surged to record levels.

According to figures from Ukraine’s Air Force, Moscow deployed a total of 2,576 drones during November, up from 2,023 the month before.

And the Kremlin clearly doesn’t intend to let up on the relentless nightly assaults — speaking in September, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow is planning to increase drone production “almost ten times” this year.

In 2023, the Russian army received about 140,000 drones of different types, according to Putin. This year, Putin said, Moscow wants to produce 1.4 million.

This begs the question: How bad could it get for Ukraine?

Ukraine’s air defenses, bolstered by Western-supplied systems such as Patriot and NASAMS, have become highly effective at defending cities from Russian mass missile attacks.

But due to the high price of missiles for such systems, which makes using them against relatively cheap drones highly inefficient, Ukraine developed, and relied on different methods to combat them.

“They have established an approach using mobile fire groups and a huge network of sensors of different types to detect and track these drones,” Federico Borsari, a fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), told the Kyiv Independent.

“They are using anti-aircraft guns and machine guns, even cheaper rockets, and these kinds of interception techniques are much more cost-efficient compared to Patriot and other types of air defenses.”

Ukraine has also become more adept at using electronic warfare (EW) techniques to confuse and steer Russian drones in the wrong direction during attacks.

GPS spoofing involves manipulating or deceiving a drone’s GPS receiver by transmitting fake signals, tricking it into thinking it’s in the wrong location and heading elsewhere.

Using both mobile fire groups and EW, Borsari says that only around 5% of the drones launched by Russia actually make it through Ukraine’s air defenses.

But he adds that just as Ukraine has adapted to defending against drone attacks, Russia is also adapting in turn.

When Russia first began deploying kamikaze drones to attack Ukraine in September 2022, Moscow used the imported Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones.

Since then, Russia has begun manufacturing its own Shahed-type drones and developing new variations.

According to recent reports, Russia has been able to produce a variety of kamikaze drones, among them decoy drones to deplete Ukraine’s air defense, as well as thermobaric and shrapnel ones to inflict maximum damage.

The most significant, in terms of the size of attacks, is the number of decoy drones being employed by Russia.

Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) reported on Nov. 18 that Russian forces are using cheap decoy drones with foreign components to overload Ukraine’s air defense system.

These are reported to be a variation of the Gerbera drone. Made from materials such as plywood and foam, they are reportedly ten times cheaper than Iran’s Shahed drone.

While some versions carry explosives or reconnaissance equipment, some are equipped with neither and are launched alongside their deadly counterparts in order to distract Ukraine’s air defenses.

“Sometimes they’re decoys, sometimes they’re not — it’s all meant to create more problems for Ukrainian air defenses and to waste a lot of resources in tracking, detecting, and engaging,” Borsari said.

According to an investigation by the Associated Press (AP) on Nov.16, Russia has recently begun equipping some drones with thermobaric warheads, normally associated with missiles.

Thermobaric warheads create an intense wave of high pressure and heat that can lead to devastating injuries, including collapsed lungs, crushed eyeballs, and brain damage.

While controversial, thermobaric munitions are not prohibited under international law.

After a recent attack on the city of Sumy overnight on Nov. 22, Governor Volodymyr Artiukh said the drones used in the strike were equipped with shrapnel munitions.

In addition to the explosive power of the warhead, they blasted out ball bearings from the impact area. Two people were killed in the attack, and 12 others were injured.

“These weapons are used to kill people. Not to destroy structures, just to kill more people,” Artiukh said in a video uploaded to the regional government’s official Telegram channel.

Much more at the links including charts, graphs, and imagery.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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The Current Government in Georgia Is Pushing the Country into Clear Dependence on Russia – Address by the President

4 December 2024 – 20:14

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

A brief summary of the day.

A report from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi: the front, our steps to strengthen the directions. Brigade supplies. The Kursk operation.

There was also a report from the Chief of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine. Budanov reported on Russia’s intentions for the near future and on the situation in Syria – how a shift in the balance of power in Syria could change global developments. And a report was made on the situation in Georgia. And this situation in Georgia, of course, is not just the problem of one nation and not just the problem of our region – how the current government in Georgia is pushing the country into clear dependence on Russia. It is truly shameful – what actions they are taking against their own people. And when Moscow praises these authorities in Georgia, it clearly shows for whom they are now working in Tbilisi and for whom they are dispersing the protests. Definitely not for Georgia. We are developing our legal response and working with European and other partners on concrete actions. I have given instructions to prepare appropriate sanctions decisions.

The Prime Minister also delivered a report today. Nearly 5 million Ukrainians have already applied for the eSupport winter payment. And today, Ukrposhta has joined the program: which means that there will be over 2 million more people who receive pensions and social payments through Ukrposhta – these people will also receive a payment of UAH 1,000. Today we also discussed our cooperation with Europe – the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Our partners have approved investments of one billion three hundred million euros; these are funds for infrastructure logistics, and in particular, it is the energy sector. We are grateful to our partners. We have coordinated our efforts for December with the Government, especially our work with the frontline regions. Everything related to the heating season, financial, energy and security issues.

And one more thing.

I congratulated our warriors on the Missile and Artillery Forces Day and presented them with state awards – Crosses of Military Merit. And honorary distinctions “For Courage and Bravery” were awarded to the 107th Artillery Brigade – Kremenchuk Brigade, as well as to the 15th Separate Artillery Reconnaissance Brigade “Black Forest”. Thank you, warriors! I thank everyone who is fighting for our state, for our people, and I thank everyone who is helping us!

Glory to Ukraine!

The US:

⚡️House Speaker rejects Biden’s request for additional $24 billion in Ukraine aid.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 4, 2024 at 1:29 PM

U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson said on Dec. 4 that he will not put to a vote a request for an additional $24 billion in aid to Ukraine following reports that President Joe Biden was quietly asking Congress to green light further assistance to Kyiv before he leaves office.

— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 4, 2024 at 1:29 PM

The Kyiv Independent has the details of Messianic Mike’s feckless cowardice:

U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson said on Dec. 4 that he will not put to a vote a request for an additional $24 billion in aid to Ukraine following reports that President Joe Biden was quietly asking Congress to green light further assistance to Kyiv before he leaves office.

Roughly $16 billion of the sum could be used to restock U.S. arsenals, while the remaining $8 billion would go to the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), Politico reported.

When asked if he would add aid for Ukraine to a continuing resolution to fund the government, Johnson rejected such a move.

“I’m not planning to do that,” he said during a press briefing.

According to Johnson, Donald Trump‘s victory in the U.S. presidential election will “change the dynamics” of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine.

“It is not the place of Joe Biden to make that decision now, we have a newly elected president, and we are going to wait and take the new commander in chief’s direction on all that, so I don’t expect any Ukraine funding to come up now,” he added.

Johnson, a Republican and staunch Trump supporter, contributed to a delay in aid to Kyiv last fall by refusing to hold a vote on various iterations of a $61 billion foreign assistance bill, but eventually reached a deal to pass the bill.

The Biden administration is trying to ship in as much aid to Ukraine as possible before Trump, who has criticized military support for Kyiv, takes office in January.

Trump has consistently said he would seek to get the U.S. “out” of the war and bring Kyiv and Moscow to the negotiating table. While the details of his plan remain unclear, some reports indicate it might entail Ukraine ceding territory and at least temporarily foregoing its NATO aspirations.

Speaker Johnson’s response here shows just how far off the looking glass and through the map the GOP of 2024 is. When given the opportunity of pumping about $16 billion of new investments into dozens and dozens of congressional districts throughout the US via defense acquisition purchases to restock US supplies his response is no.

How will the President-elect get the US out of the war, which it isn’t actually in, you might ask? Reuters has some answers to that question.

WASHINGTON, Dec 4 (Reuters) – Advisers to Donald Trump publicly and privately are floating proposals to end the Ukraine war that would cede large parts of the country to Russia for the foreseeable future, according to a Reuters analysis of their statements and interviews with several people close to the U.S. president-elect.

The proposals by three key advisers, including Trump’s incoming Russia-Ukraine envoy, retired Army Lieutenant-General Keith Kellogg, share some elements, including taking NATO membership for Ukraine off the table.

Trump’s advisers would try forcing Moscow and Kyiv into negotiations with carrots and sticks, including halting military aid to Kyiv unless it agrees to talk but boosting assistance if Russian President Vladimir Putin refuses.

Trump repeatedly pledged during his election campaign to end the nearly three-year-old conflict within 24 hours of his Jan. 20 inauguration, if not before then, but has yet to say how.

Analysts and former national security officials voice grave doubts Trump can fulfill such a pledge because of the conflict’s complexity.

Taken together, however, his advisers’ statements suggest the potential contours of a Trump peace plan.

Putin, Rumer said, likely will bide his time, take more ground and wait to see what, if any, concessions Trump may offer to lure him to the negotiating table.

Reuters reported in May that Putin was ready to halt the war with a negotiated ceasefire that recognized current front lines but was ready to fight on if Kyiv and the West did not respond.

Russia already controls all of Crimea, having unilaterally seized it from Ukraine in 2014 and has since taken about 80% of the Donbas – which is comprised of Donetsk and Luhansk – as well as more than 70% of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, and small parts of the Mykolaiv and Kharkiv regions.

As of last week, Trump had yet to convene a central working group to flesh out a peace plan, according to four advisers who requested anonymity to describe private deliberations. Rather, several advisers have pitched ideas among themselves in public forums and – in some cases – to Trump, they said.

Ultimately, a peace agreement will likely depend on direct personal engagement between Trump, Putin and Zelenskiy, the advisers said.

One former Trump national security official involved in the transition said there are three main proposals: the outline by Kellogg, one from Vice President-elect JD Vance and another advanced by Richard Grenell, Trump’s former acting intelligence chief.

Kellogg’s plan, co-authored with former National Security Council official Fred Fleitz and presented to Trump earlier this year, calls for freezing the current battle lines.

Kellogg and Fleitz did not respond to requests for comment. Their plan was first reported by Reuters.
Trump would supply more U.S. weapons to Kyiv only if it agreed to peace talks. At the same time, he would warn Moscow that he would increase U.S. aid to Ukraine if Russia rejected negotiations. NATO membership for Ukraine would be put on hold.

Ukraine also would be offered U.S. security guarantees, which could include boosting weapons supplies after an accord is struck, according to that proposal.

In a June interview with Times Radio, a British digital station, Sebastian Gorka, one of Trump’s incoming deputy national security advisers, said Trump had told him he would force Putin into talks by threatening unprecedented weapons shipments to Ukraine if Putin refused.

Gorka, reached by phone, called Reuters “fake news garbage” and declined to elaborate.

Vance, who as a U.S. senator has opposed aid to Ukraine, floated a separate idea in September.

He told U.S. podcaster Shawn Ryan that a deal likely would include a demilitarized zone at the existing front lines that would be “heavily fortified” to prevent further Russian incursions. His proposal would deny NATO membership to Kyiv.

Representatives for Vance did not make him available for comment, and he has yet to offer additional details.

Grenell, Trump’s former ambassador to Germany, advocated the creation of “autonomous zones” in eastern Ukraine during a Bloomberg roundtable in July but did not elaborate. He also suggested NATO membership for Ukraine was not in America’s interest.

Grenell, who did not respond to a request for comment, has yet to secure a position in the new administration, although he still has Trump’s ear on European issues, a senior Trump foreign policy adviser told Reuters.

That person said Grenell was one of the few people at a September meeting in New York between Trump and Zelenskiy.

More at the link.

Kellogg does have a developed view of how Russia will be made to stop fighting. It relies on a threat to escalate support to Ukraine should Russia fail to engage. One problem is that Russia can string out talks. And that Trump will concurrently need to coerce Ukraine, in the opposite direction.

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 6:59 AM

I share the assessment that Russian strategic aims have not changed. However I don’t think that means Russia will reject any deal. They might see a deal as sufficiently advantageous that it’s worth taking as an interim measure. That’d be a calculated gamble that could turn out to be wrong.

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 7:04 AM

Just as an additional note, I once got Gorka to turn into a sniveling, groveling pathetic submissive in the space of three email replies. He even threw his wife under the bus to try to get on my good side. Good times.

⚡️Ukraine has ‘hard decisions’ to make about further mobilization, Blinken says.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken described mobilization as “critical” for Ukraine, adding that despite having funds and ammunition, people are needed to repel Russian aggression.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 4, 2024 at 11:26 AM

The unmitigated gall or, perhaps, the lack of self awareness, that it takes to to be part of the senior natsec leadership team that spends three years slow walking, dribbling out, denying, then finally agreeing to send what is requested that either arrives too late or not at all to now lecture the Ukrainians that they need more men and women under arms. When they had plenty of men and women under arms and were begging for weapons systems, weapons, munitions, and other defense material they didn’t get them. According to the Ukrainians much of that has still not arrived. All while Blinken has repeatedly cooked the books so that the US can continue to shovel defense material to Israel in violation of US law.

Moscow:

⚡️ Russia’s Oreshnik strike aftermath was a carefully orchestrated psyop, media reports.

The media blitz following Russia’s Oreshnik strike was a carefully staged stunt designed to scare off the West, the Moscow Times reported on Dec. 3, citing four Russian official sources.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 4, 2024 at 8:43 AM

From The Kyiv Independent: (emphasis mine)

The media blitz following Russia’s strike on Dnipro with a new type of intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) on Nov. 21 was a carefully staged stunt designed to scare off the West, the Moscow Times reported on Dec. 3, citing four Russian official sources.

The attack alarmed and puzzled civilians and international observers, who got used to Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling that has been ongoing since the beginning of the war.

Later on Nov. 21, Putin said in a televised address that the attack was a test of Russia’s “newest missile,” an IRBM called Oreshnik.

During a press conference, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova took a call on stage. The microphones overheard a man saying “not to comment” on questions regarding the new missile.

This was all part of a plan to scare the West into submission, the Moscow Times reported, citing its sources.

The propaganda offensive was coordinated between government, military, and intelligence officials, as well as PR experts, the outlet wrote. It came as a response to the West’s decision to permit Ukraine to strike inside Russia with Western long-range arms.

“This show, which was staged and presented to the public,” was composed of the actual Oreshnik strike, dissemination of footage on social media, and foreign media coverage, a Russian official told the Moscow Times.

Speaking to the outlet, experts expressed skepticism about the feasibility of mass-producing the Oreshnik, saying that the weapon is still being tested and Russia lacks the technological means to mass-produce such a weapon.

This undermines a later threat by Putin that he might strike “decision-making centers” in Kyiv by the new Oreshnik.

Imagine that.

Georgia:

🇬🇪 Protesters have been gathering near the parliament in Tbilisi for the seventh night in a row
Meanwhile, security forces have already brought water cannons to the city center.
t.me/c/1305722586…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 1:47 PM

Tonight, on night 7, we saw some arrests and a few gas capsules, but no full-blown crackdown per se. Makes you wonder what’s wrong. The early morning is ahead though! #GeorgiaProtests

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 7:43 PM

People already found Facebook accounts of these violent policemen, and at least one that I saw said he worked at Georgian Judo Federation. It’s long been rumoured this was the case among them. Most importantly, we know at least some of them by names and faces! #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 5:41 PM

There are ongoing protests in other cities and towns again. Kutaisi, Batumi, and beyond. #GeorgiaProtests

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 3:44 PM

It’s an unbelievable amount of people out tonight. They are on the entire Rustaveli up to the First Republic Square. Everything you see here is the outer edge of the #GeorgiaProtests
📷 Mariam Nikuradze

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 3:40 PM

There are increasing calls for a general strike, bank sector strikes, etc. Culture sector people such as artists are already announcing strikes.
In Georgia strikes are hard because of no trade unions and conformist businesses in a captured state. #GeorgiaProtests

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 3:38 PM

Russian Dream regime Titushky attacked us at Courtyard Marriott after the opposition meeting this evening. They assaulted and detained Zura Datunashvili, Coalition 4 Change member, Ahali party political council member, and European and World wrestling champion. #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 3:06 PM

JUST IN: A short while ago, another opposition leader, Aleko Elisashvili was detained. Elisashvili has fought in Ukraine and is the one who slapped GD MP Mamuka Mdinaradze over the Russian law. #GeorgiaProtests

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 2:31 PM

Irakli Shaishmelashvili, head of the Op Planning Division of the Special Tasks Department (responsible for violent dispersal of demonstrations), has resigned. He cited “family circumstances” in a statement dated Dec. 3. The head of the dep is Zviad Kharazishvili (khareba).

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 2:31 PM

🧵1/ The police have entered the offices of political parties and the homes of activists — Summary of information for now.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 10:20 AM

2/ The search began at the home of Ilia Ghlonti, a member of the “Daitove” group. After the search, his mobile phone and laptop were confiscated.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 10:20 AM

3/ “Daitove” is one of the largest Facebook groups, with over 236,000 members. It actively discusses protests against the “Georgian Dream” party.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 10:20 AM

4/ After Ilia Ghlonti’s home, the police moved on to the residence of Nancy Woland (Christina Botkoveli), the founder of “Daitove.” After several hours of searching, they confiscated a gas mask, pepper spray, and a phone.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 10:20 AM

5/ The police also entered the home of activist Saba Jajanidze. According to his wife, the police initially deceived them, claiming they were from the gas company when they mistakenly arrived at her mother’s house.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 10:20 AM

6/ Zviad Tsetskhladze, a member of the “Dafioni” movement, was arrested. Details are still unknown.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 10:21 AM

7/ The police have also entered the office of the movement Nabiji – Step.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 10:21 AM

8/ Meanwhile, the police raided the “Ahali” party office. However, they left after a few minutes without conducting a search and moved on to the “GIRCHI-DROA” office. These parties are part of the @CoalitionGEO

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 10:21 AM

9/ During the search of the “GIRCHI-DROA” office, coalition members were not allowed to enter. This was exactly what Nika Gvaramia had demanded, and during this, he was violently arrested and forced into a car.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 10:21 AM

10/ A few minutes later, “GIRCHI-DROA” member Gela Khasaia was arrested. He had been physically assaulted by the police at a protest just a few days ago.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 10:21 AM

11/ The police also entered the UNM office. After several hours, party member Igor Narmania said that five members of the party’s youth movement were taken from the office.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 10:21 AM

12/ According to the party, the arrested are: Davit Gedenidze, Vakhtang Gagnidze, Irakli Ardia, Saba Birkaia, and Mishiko Janikashvili.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 10:21 AM

13/ Members of the “Lelo” party, Vaso Kadzelashvili and Vefkhia Kasradze, were also arrested.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 10:21 AM

Kherson Oblast:

❗️Russia is preparing a major offensive on Kherson ahead of Trump’s inauguration: 300 boats are ready to cross the river, the head of Kherson RMA told FT.

Russian forces are trying to seize river islands and move closer to Kherson’s western bank, recently assaulting Kozatskyi Island NE of the city.

— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 4:08 AM

⚡️Russia gathers 300 boats to cross Dnipro River amid attempted attacks in Kherson Oblast, military says.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 4, 2024 at 10:46 AM

Russian troops are storming the Kherson direction in an attempt to gain a foothold on some islands in the Dnipro River delta, Vladyslav Voloshyn, the spokesperson for the Ukrainian military’s Southern Command, told Suspilne on Dec. 4.

— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 4, 2024 at 10:46 AM

From The Kyiv Independent:

Russian troops are storming the Kherson direction in an attempt to gain a foothold on some islands in the Dnipro River delta, Vladyslav Voloshyn, the spokesperson for the Ukrainian military’s Southern Command, told Suspilne on Dec. 4.

Russian forces are trying to conduct attacks near the Kozatskyi and Kruhlyk islands, Voloshyn said.

His comments came after Kherson Oblast Governor Oleksandr Prokudin told the Financial Times that Russia “wants to launch another offensive” in the direction of Kherson.

Kherson and other regional settlements west of the Dnipro River have been subjected to near-daily Russian strikes since Ukraine liberated the area in November 2022, and Russian troops were pushed to the river’s east bank.

Russia has assembled “300 boats to cross the river” Prokudin said in an article published earlier on Dec. 4.

Voloshyn confirmed this claim, adding that Moscow’s attack attempts have failed and resulted in losses.

“Their goal is to capture a certain foothold, hold it and bring as much of our forces and means as possible,” he said.

Russia is now training its forcing assault groups in occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, the spokesperson said, citing Ukraine’s intelligence data.

According to Voloshyn, Moscow’s troops are practicing how to cross water obstacles and transfer landing groups.

“There has not been a single successful attempt at this assault or enemy crossing in a month. The Ukrainian Defense Forces are now reliably defending the city of Kherson and Kherson Oblast, and the entire right bank,” Voloshyn told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL).

Throughout 2024, Ukraine has faced a challenging situation in its defense of the front line, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, where Russia has consistently concentrated its offensive potential.

Ukraine has also been building heavy fortifications near the southern city of Zaporizhzhia in preparations for a potential Russian offensive in the region.

New: Kherson’s civilians have been the target of an experiment without precedent in modern European warfare: a concerted Russian campaign to empty a city by stalking its residents with attack drones. Story w/ @samjoiner.bsky.social @inari-ta.bsky.social + @cen4infores.bsky.social
on.ft.com/4fTNzAL

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— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 2:09 AM

Ukraine suspects Russia’s drone campaign is part of plan to ratchet up pressure before Trump returns & prep for a push across the Dnipro river. “Russia wants to launch another offensive here,” said Prokudin. Russia assembled “300 boats to cross the river”. www.ft.com/content/31b6…

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— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 2:47 AM

Kherson people are terrified. One man only leaves at night, dressed in black, speeding on a motorcycle with lights off. Many wait for bad weather. “Rain, wind and clouds keep the drones away. London weather is now our ideal weather.”

Read our story here: www.ft.com/content/31b6…

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— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 2:48 AM

The killer machines, sometimes by the swarm, hover above homes, buzz into buildings and chase people down streets in their cars, riding bikes or simply on foot. Targets are not soldiers or tanks, but civilian life.

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— Sam Joiner (@samjoiner.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 2:53 AM

Since mid-July, Kherson and its neighbouring villages along the western side of the Dnipro have suffered more than 9,500 attacks with small drones, killing at least 37 people and injuring hundreds more, according to the regional military administration, prosecutors and police.

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— Sam Joiner (@samjoiner.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 2:53 AM

Scores of videos of drone attacks on civilians are posted on Russian military and pro-war Telegram channels. We worked with @cen4infores.bsky.social to analyse and verify 90 of them — a catalogue of the drone onslaught. It suggests Russia is also using civilians as ‘target practice’.

— Sam Joiner (@samjoiner.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 2:53 AM

From The Financial Times:

There is little more comforting to the people of Kherson these days than the sight of bad weather.

When clouds gather, rain pours and winds sweep through this southern Ukrainian city, locals take their cue to run errands — sensing a pause, at least temporarily, in the terror that has filled their skies.

Kherson’s civilians have been, since midsummer, the target of an experiment without precedent in modern European warfare: a concerted Russian campaign to empty a city by stalking its residents with attack drones.

The killer machines, sometimes by the swarm, hover above homes, buzz into buildings and chase people down streets in their cars, riding bicycles or simply on foot. The targets are not soldiers, or tanks, but civilian life.

“They are hunting us,” said Oleksandr Prokudin, head of the Kherson regional military administration. “Imagine what that does to a person, the psychological impact.”

Since mid-July, Kherson and its neighbouring villages along the western side of the Dnipro river have suffered more than 9,500 attacks with small drones, killing at least 37 people and injuring hundreds more, according to Prokudin, regional prosecutors and police.

Prokudin told the Financial Times that Russia had deployed some of its “best drone units” across the Dnipro river, which bisects Kherson and serves as the front line. From the bank opposite the city centre, he said, the Russians were launching advanced drone models, refining combat techniques and training new operators for their intensifying invasion.

Scores of videos of drone attacks on civilians are posted on Russian military and pro-war Telegram channels. The Eyes on Russia project by the Centre for Information Resilience (CIR), a London-based non-profit focused on exposing human rights abuses and war crimes, analysed and verified 90 of them in a new report — a video catalogue of the drone onslaught.

The CIR found that the “overwhelming majority” of attacks were either against moving or stationary vehicles — targets that are “difficult to replicate in a test environment”. The suspicion, on the Ukrainian side, is that Kherson was also being used for “target practice”, Prokudin and other officials said.

The devices used, including first-person view (FPV) drones, Chinese over-the-counter Mavics and sometimes larger Russian military Lancets, zero in on vulnerable, everyday locations: crowded markets, petrol stations, cafés, post offices and humanitarian aid centres.

One caught Serhiy, 50, early on a November morning, soon after he left his apartment. He had not heard a drone overhead for almost an hour, but had not reckoned on the Russians leaving something in a pile of leaves: a small anti-personnel mine dubbed the “petal” that flutters down when airdropped.

“I fell to the ground and then I noticed that I was missing my foot,” Serhiy said from a hospital bed.

The Russians pack the petals into tubes that are dangled from small quadcopter drones, then scatter them along streets, courtyards, playgrounds and public squares.

Serhiy said everyone in the Kherson area knows someone who was killed, wounded or lucky to have survived one of the drone attacks. Before his foot was blown off, his 69-year-old neighbour lost an arm when a Russian drone dropped a grenade on top of the man.

Sitting in the bed across the hospital room from Serhiy was 73-year-old Viktor, who also encountered a petal mine dropped from a Russian drone; he lifted his left leg towards an FT reporter to gesture to where his foot had been before it was severed in a blast.

The killer drones are so prevalent in Kherson that many people now carry small detectors that notify them when they are hovering nearby. Oleksiy, a local artist and café owner, keeps one by his side while he brews coffee for his customers. The detector is able to distinguish between drone types.

Others take even more drastic measures to avoid the drones. Volodymyr said he only leaves the house on a motorcycle after sunset, deliberately riding without his headlights switched on to avoid detection from the skies.

The Russian drones, many of which were once used primarily for photography and videography, are equipped with grenades and improvised explosives. Many carry even bigger explosives, including anti-tank mines and RPG warheads that slam into their targets, kamikaze style. They have ranges up to 15km, fly at low altitudes and zip around at speeds of more than 100km per hour, making them difficult to track and take down.

Military vehicles, ambulances, police cars, fire trucks and humanitarian convoys are the favoured targets.

Ukrainian officials suspect the assault is part of Russia’s plan to ratchet up pressure on Kyiv before Donald Trump returns to the White House, accelerating battlefield gains and preparing for a potential push across the Dnipro river.

“Russia wants to launch another offensive here,” said Prokudin, adding that Russian forces had assembled “300 boats to cross the river”.

Serhiy Bratchuk, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian volunteer army’s southern forces, said Russian troops were trying to seize the river islands and move closer to Kherson’s western bank. They had recently conducted a large attack on Kozatskyi island north-east of the city, near Nova Kakhovka.

Much more at the link including imagery, maps, and graphs.

Needless to say, every single one of these attacks is a war crime.

Kharkiv:

If you thought the sound of an air raid siren was terrifying, listen to the new decentralized alert system tested today in Kharkiv. Its scream doesn’t just warn—it grips you, more harrowing than anything before.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 7:20 AM

Finally, Kharkiv tested the new air raid alert system today!

The city will now have its own air raid alert separate from the Kharkiv region, which is crucial given the ongoing fighting in our area and the frequent alerts due to artillery and

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 11:31 AM

glide bomb shelling at the frontlines.

This new system will reduce the number of alerts in the city, giving our businesses some much-needed breathing room.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 4, 2024 at 11:31 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Мрію, аби Святий Миколай отримав цього року якомога більше таких листів ❤️‍🩹

♬ Originalton – Vienna Visitas Photography

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

I dream that St. Nicholas will receive as many of these letters as possible this year ❤️‍🩹

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,015: A Brief Wednesday Night UpdatePost + Comments (16)

Wednesday Morning Open Thread: We’re All Gonna Miss the Bidens

by Anne Laurie| December 4, 20248:37 am| 248 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, President Biden, Proud to Be A Democrat

(Ann Telnaes via the Washington Post)

Robin Givhan, at the Washington Post — “One last holiday wish from the Biden White House” [gift link]

The mood of this year’s White House holiday decorations tilts between calm and chaos, between rooms that evoke peace on earth and good will toward men, and others that simply advise visitors to eat, drink and get in a good laugh whenever you can.

The decor is not so much a fantasyland of elves and flying reindeer, but a statement of stubborn good will and wishful thinking about the best that the season can inspire.

In the East Room, a canopy of glittering, metallic snowflakes float above trees trimmed in silver and white. Their bases are framed by silhouettes of American men, women and children all holding hands like a population of happy little Whos in Whoville. White paper doves signifying peace fly over the Cross Hall like a gust of optimism. Church bells and sleigh bells adorn the East Colonnade. And in the State Dining Room, thumb-size candy ice skaters make graceful loops in front of a gingerbread White House blanketed with snow drifts of royal icing. If there is any single message, in these decorations inspired by “A Season of Peace & Light,” it’s that no amount of cultural infighting, political partisanship or shriveled-heart meanness shall steal the Christmas spirit on the Bidens’ watch. Grinches be gone…

The planning for these decorations began months ago. Back then, no one could say whether democracy would be saved or America would be waiting to be made great again. Now, each room reads like an exclamation point on the issues and ideas that have animated the Bidens during their time in the White House — specifically the interests of the first lady. The longtime teacher enhanced the White House library with children’s books. Students created many of the decorations, including self-portraits, that adorn the trees in the State Dining Room. And children — and the young at heart — are the audience for the official White House Christmas tree in the Blue Room. The 18½ foot Fraser fir from North Carolina has been transformed into a carnival carousel with animals bobbing up and down on brass-colored poles.

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The Gold Star tree, dedicated to the men and women of the military who have given their lives in service to the nation, is the first tree visitors see on a tour of the decorations. It reflects the first lady’s long-standing interest in military families. She and the president count themselves among their number, thanks to the service of their late son, Beau. This year, the tree is akin to an art installation, rather than something plucked from a forest. The memorial is constructed of six graduated stars, each representing a branch of the military, stacked one atop the other. With sunlight streaming in through the surrounding windows, the tree practically glows. Rather than stirring a feeling of solemnity, the tree exudes vibrancy and reminds visitors that the achievements, sacrifices and courage of these men and women are ever present. The gilded tree rebukes those who would suggest that there’s anything but honor and valor in their sacrifices…

The decorations are joyful. They delight. They reassure. They might even leave some adults a bit wide-eyed. It’s the White House after all. That warm, fuzzy feeling? Keep it close. The winter might be very, very long.

And also…

BBC: “Biden’s choice of Angola is significant – he is the first US president to visit the country, signalling a dramatic improvement in relations between the two nations. Angola was firmly in the political orbit of China and Russia after independence” https://t.co/5iGcBYwj0w

— Ben LaBolt (@WHCommsDir) December 3, 2024

A cordial reception was extended to US President Joe Biden in Angola. He is the first the first sitting head of state from America to visit the oil rich African state. Stay tuned to SABC news 404. pic.twitter.com/ff5O5UreBq

— SABC News (@SABCNews) December 3, 2024

Per the Associated Press, “Thousands cheer Biden’s arrival in Angola for his long-promised sub-Saharan Africa visit”:

… Biden’s three-day visit to Angola will focus largely on the Lobito Corridor railway redevelopment in Zambia, Congo and Angola. It aims to advance the U.S. presence in a region rich in the critical minerals used in batteries for electric vehicles, electronic devices and clean energy technologies.

Biden’s trip comes weeks before Republican Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20, finally delivering on Biden’s pledge to visit sub-Saharan Africa. On his way to Angola, he stopped in the Atlantic Ocean island nation of Cape Verde for a brief, closed-door meeting with Prime Minister Ulisses Correia e Silva.

Biden plans to meet with Angolan President João Lourenço in the capital, Luanda, where crowds lined the streets for his arrival, and visit the National Slavery Museum. He also will travel to the Atlantic port city of Lobito for a look at the rail project. He will announce new developments on health, agribusiness and security, White House officials said…

The last U.S. president to visit sub-Saharan Africa was Barack Obama in 2015. Biden did attend a United Nations climate summit in Egypt in North Africa in 2022…

Lobito was made possible by some American diplomatic success in Angola that led to a Western consortium winning the bid for the project in 2022 ahead of Chinese competition, a surprise given Angola’s long and strong ties with Beijing.

The Biden administration accelerated American outreach to Angola, turning around what was an antagonistic relationship three decades ago when the U.S. armed anti-government rebels in Angola’s civil war. U.S.-Angola trade was $1.77 billion last year.

The visit will also draw attention to a perennial challenge for America’s value-based diplomacy in Africa. International rights groups have used Biden’s trip to criticize the Lourenço government’s authoritarian shift. Political opponents have been imprisoned and allegedly tortured, while laws have been passed that severely restrict freedoms, according to rights groups.

Jill Biden's final foreign trip as first lady will close with her and Trump at Notre Dame cathedral

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— Associated Press ?? (@asssociatedpress.bsky.social) December 3, 2024 at 11:11 AM

Wednesday Morning Open Thread: We’re All Gonna Miss the BidensPost + Comments (248)

H5N1 & COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: December 4, 2024

by Anne Laurie| December 4, 20246:06 am| 100 Comments

This post is in: COVID-19, Foreign Affairs, H5N1 Bird Flu

PSA from commentor Chris T, November 30:

I’m in hospital recovering from pneumonia. What I thought was the flu, was the onset of something apparently starting to be called Post COVID Organizing Pneumonia. It commonly kicks in about 8 weeks after recovering from COVID (even a mild case stopped by Paxlovid), using the damage trail from the original COVID to invade the lungs.

So, if you seem to be getting a flu or something roughly two month after COVID, it might be this. There is no one specific pathogen here, it’s just opportunistic invasion from whatever bacterial colonies live in your head.

***********

Scientists who have studied #H5N1 #birdflu for years are flummoxed by the lack of severe cases among the 55 human cases the US has confirmed this year. I talked to lots to explore the theories of what's going on. www.statnews.com/2024/12/02/b…

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— Helen Branswell (@helenbranswell.bsky.social) December 2, 2024 at 8:10 AM

The pandemic russian roulette continues.
It is alarming that #H5N1 is being detected in the human food chain. I don't know how to say this more clearly, raw milk has absolutely ZERO benefits that make deliberate human exposure to a pathogenic zoonotic virus worthwhile
www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcn…

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— BK. Titanji (@boghuma.bsky.social) November 28, 2024 at 5:48 PM

I spoke to @Alan_Yu039 @whyy for this story about the devastating impact avian influenza has on poultry, as well as the risk of a human pandemic in the context of the US dairy cattle outbreak.

Our response is bad now. I fear it will get worse on Jan 20.https://t.co/W5q4ll3EL5

— Dr. Angela Rasmussen (@angie_rasmussen) November 25, 2024

It's 5yrs since the first cases of COVID were reported in Wuhan China. It is clear that we will never fully recover from the collective trauma inflicted by a global pandemic. I had hope we would be trying to avoid another one, sadly that's not the case #H5N1 #airborne
www.nature.com/articles/s41…

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— BK. Titanji (@boghuma.bsky.social) December 2, 2024 at 11:10 AM

#USDA confirmed 6 more #H5N1 #birdflu infected dairy cow herds in California today. State's total is now 481. Cumulative national total is 695 in 15 states. www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-po…

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— Helen Branswell (@helenbranswell.bsky.social) December 3, 2024 at 8:05 AM

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[email protected] announced a broad recall of Raw Farms LLC raw whole milk & cream on store shelves & has suspended distribution of additional products after multiple positive #H5N1 #birdflu tests. It advises avoiding other Raw Farm products for now. www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OPA…

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— Helen Branswell (@helenbranswell.bsky.social) December 3, 2024 at 11:24 PM

⚠️ BREAKING:

WHO Warns of H5N1 Outbreak Risk, Urges Stronger Global Surveillance of Animals to Prevent Spread to Humans

WHO epidemiologist Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove has warned of the H5N1 threat, calling for urgent global surveillance of animals, including wild birds and poultry. pic.twitter.com/lHkxlVO8XU

— SARS‑CoV‑2 (COVID-19) (@COVID19_disease) December 2, 2024

***********

We have so much to be grateful for in our recovery from COVID.
At the time, it was very frightening, and we're forgetting that.
We would do well to do more remembering. There is a lot unresolved.

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— Cheryl Rofer (@cherylrofer.bsky.social) November 28, 2024 at 6:13 PM

Link to paper here (thanks Elon) https://t.co/s6n5vUiyaz

— Pinboard (@Pinboard) December 4, 2024

And I will never forget the day I took the kids to get their first Covid shot at a county clinic, with lines out the door and far into the parking lot. The relief from every parent in that line was palpable.

May 15, 2021.

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— Anne S Kim (@anne-s-kim.bsky.social) December 1, 2024 at 9:07 PM

it imposed restrictions on the rich and powerful and they became determined that that could never happen again.

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— BeijingPalmer (@beijingpalmer.bsky.social) November 27, 2024 at 8:16 PM

======

NHS excess sickness absence continues to remain precisely dictated by the prevalence of Covid infections.

NHS England staff as a group took a staggering FIFTY PERCENT more sick days in July 2024 as July 2019. pic.twitter.com/GrAimNMgtE

— tern (@1goodtern) December 2, 2024

======

Study finds #SARS-CoV-2SpikeProtein persists in #brain tissues for years, potentially causing long COVID neurological effects. mRNA vaccines reduce spike accumulation, highlighting need for further therapies. https://t.co/27wJZ1Kyd5 https://t.co/4tvjFQZNXy

— Medical Xpress (@medical_xpress) November 29, 2024

Air pollution may boost risk of longer-term #long-COVID symptoms, research suggests

Vaccination conferred a protective effect, with 15% of vaccinees developing long COVID, compared with 46% of the unvaccinated.https://t.co/O4Ak6iswAi pic.twitter.com/FaFJp1BODk

— CIDRAP (@CIDRAP) December 3, 2024

Men more likely than women to develop COVID-19 pneumonia, research suggests | ⁦@CIDRAP⁩ #Covid19 #pneumonia https://t.co/kZTBx0kZiJ

— aponia_analytics (@AponiaAnalytics) November 28, 2024

The SARS-CoV-2 spike protein can persist in the brain—in the skull bone marrow and meninges—to induce neurologic damage
www.cell.com/cell-host-mi… open-access

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— Eric Topol (@erictopol.bsky.social) November 29, 2024 at 10:39 AM

Analysis of 25 studies shows reduced risk of long COVID after vaccination

In 15 studies, two doses of COVID-19 vaccine before infection resulted in reduced odds of long COVID by 24%.https://t.co/quTxnrJROS pic.twitter.com/bpwaeHb0mH

— CIDRAP (@CIDRAP) November 27, 2024

Blood vessel wall (endothelial) inflammation as a key to multi-organ complications of Covid and #LongCovid
@science.org
science.org/doi/10.1126/…

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— Eric Topol (@erictopol.bsky.social) November 28, 2024 at 3:33 PM

I think many people really underestimate how likely a new pandemic is to occur in the next four years.
Even if you think of a pandemic as a once-in-a-century event, that's a 4% chance over the next four years. And I think in the world we live in a pandemic is far from a once-in-100 years event. ??

— Kai Kupferschmidt (@kakape.bsky.social) November 24, 2024 at 3:33 PM

In the past 24 years we have had one flu pandemic and one almost and one actual coronavirus pandemic. We have had mpox travel around the world – twice. We have had a regional Ebola outbreak that threatened to spread to many more countries, and avian influenza keeps inching closer to humans.

Not to mention worries over yellow fever spreading to China during the 2016 Angola outbreak or what happened with Zika or MERS. There is Nipah virus, Rift Valley fever, Lassa fever, Crimean Congo hemorrhagic fever, there are resistant strains of Candida auris and numerous other pathogens emerging.

The list goes on and on. And of course there are things we don’t even know we should be worried about yet.
And, yes, there is the risk of lab accidents, of bioterrorism.
Individually none of these things may seem very likely. But the idea that we will be able to avoid all of these seems naive.

My point is that any reasonably rational look at the evidence must conclude that there is a risk of a pandemic that is big enough to warrant attention and preparation.
So any new administration that decides to largely bypass infectious disease expertise is taking a really really dangerous gamble.

All of this triggered by this important piece by @ddiamond.bsky.social
www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/…

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— Kai Kupferschmidt (@kakape.bsky.social) November 24, 2024 at 3:47 PM

======

How Trump’s Failed 2020 COVID Policy Birthed His 2024 Public Health Nominees https://t.co/6QbdOpztD0 via @TPM

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) November 30, 2024

Kash Patel, Donald Trump's pick to run the FBI, has repeatedly hawked "detox" supplements that can supposedly "reverse" the Covid-19 vaccines, promoting the kits in a series of Truth Social posts that spread false claims about vaccine safety and "shedding."

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— Bill McCarthy (@billmccarthy.bsky.social) December 2, 2024 at 3:43 PM

The Covid wars are still raging in 2024, and now the Covid contrarians are in charge. How their critiques have fared:
www.politico.com/news/2024/12…

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— Tim O’Brien (@timobrien.bsky.social) December 3, 2024 at 7:36 AM

I’ve been seeing some classic Monday morning quarterbacking as the necessity of #COVID19 lockdowns are being discussed once again. As usual, we’re seeing a lot of hyperbolic statements and attempts to create conversations around comparative suffering which is always just a 1/

— Putrino Lab (@putrinolab.bsky.social) November 30, 2024 at 11:31 AM

garbage response to anything. The reality is that we had a once in a century pandemic. The virus was spreading like wildfire and we had limited options to keep the public safe. Not just from COVID but from #LongCovid. In March and April of 2020, New York City was the epicenter 2/

of the global pandemic. Things were rough and we still hadn’t shut down. My whole team was pulled into the hospital and deployed to provide support to stretched inpatient services since outpatient services were closed down, Central Park was a triage tent, the refrigerated 3/

trucks were on Madison Ave storing bodies, an average inpatient unit was losing ten patients a day and sitting in our outpatient center, the Abilities Research Center, was a whiteboard where we were counting down the number of free beds we had. When we hit the double digits, 4/

the state government made the decision to lockdown and we held our breath. You have to understand that once we ran out of beds we had no plan B: we were just out of beds. That was it. After lockdown, we watched our free bed number dip into single digits…and then it held. The 5/

lockdowns had worked. In the meantime, from day 1 we were concerned about social isolation and loneliness from the lockdowns, but with the shortage of hospital beds, the death rate and the emerging threat of #LongCovid, lockdowns were the *least worst option*. Don’t get me 6/

wrong – this doesn’t mean you stick your head in the sand about lockdown problems: with the help of our friends at @LogitechG, our team coordinated the distribution of hundreds of iPads to hospitals all over NY so that people could say goodbye to critically ill loved ones. 7/

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— Putrino Lab (@putrinolab.bsky.social) November 30, 2024 at 11:31 AM

We worked with @SamsungUS and @Take2Interact to get hundreds of workbooks and free wifi out to low income kids in NY and NJ who didn’t have devices to engage in remote schooling, and we partnered with the incredible @socialcreaturz to start building out programs to address 8/

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— Putrino Lab (@putrinolab.bsky.social) November 30, 2024 at 11:31 AM

loneliness and social isolation head-on: launching @sitgrit so that folks with disabilities could engage in free, remote exercise programming just like everyone else because the big fitness chains were NOT accommodating (and still haven’t). We launched Bonded by Baby to build 9/

social ties for new parents who were at risk of loneliness, and many other programs to educate people about the health risks of loneliness and social isolation. To this day, we have continued these programs, because the effects of loneliness and social isolation are still 10/

being seen and felt. To this day, we fight for the idea that social health should be viewed as a crucial dimension of overall health: as important as physical and mental health. To this day, we continue to fight for people with #LongCOVID and many other chronically ill folks 11/

for whom lockdown has never ended due to their heightened risk of reinfection and the consequences that such a reinfection brings to their health status. We continue to build social and peer support programming for these folks to combat loneliness. Anyway, all of this is to 12/

say: lockdowns saved lives. If we had locked down earlier, many of my colleagues would have been spared the repeated trauma of losing patient after patient, many of my colleagues would have been spared horrific #LongCovid that has ended their career and torn their lives apart 13/

and many people in NYC might still be alive and many more still not living with #LongCovid. This is not to say that lockdowns were not without cost, but to frame it as though it was the wrong choice in the face of what we faced in the beginning is either an uninformed or 14/

intentional misread of the situation. So to anyone lamenting the psychological effects of the lockdowns, ask them: what did they do for people suffering from loneliness and mental health issues during COVID? What are they doing now to create government sponsored programs for 15/

people who are still struggling and what do you plan to do for people with #LongCovid and other chronic illness/disability who still face considerable risk from the ongoing pandemic? If they don’t have good answers to these questions, it’s likely that they’re criticizing 16/

these policies for political expediency rather than any real concern for public health, and tbh we need a lot less of that sort of performative chatter and a whole lot more action. We’re in this together and the people we SERVE deserve better. /end

H5N1 & COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: December 4, 2024Post + Comments (100)

War for Ukraine Day 1,014: Not Now South Korea, We’re Busy!!!!!

by Adam L Silverman| December 3, 20249:05 pm| 13 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A quick housekeeping note: what I thought would be a nice, sedately paced week shifted into high gear today. And no, it was not the coup du jour. So I’m just going to run through the basics tonight so I can go get cleaned up and rack out.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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Now, in December, We Are Expecting Systems from Several Partners; It is Crucial that This Is Implemented Without Any Delay – Address by the President

3 December 2024 – 19:56

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, a lot of work has been done regarding our army – relevant meetings were held.

At the beginning of the day – the Commander-in-Chief reported on the situation, the main tasks that need to be implemented right now, and the difficulties on the frontline. Significant reinforcements are needed in the Donetsk directions. And this includes arms supplies from our partners – it is a direct dependence: the greater our army’s firepower is, the more technological capabilities we have, the more effectively we can destroy Russia’s offensive potential and protect our warriors’ lives. And we are having detailed discussions with our partners on this issue. Moreover, we are working on our own – boosting our production, our Ukrainian defense industry. We will have more long-range capabilities of our own.

Today, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine returned from his working visits abroad. He reported on new agreements and on the implementation of previous ones, especially regarding air defense. Now, in December, we are expecting systems from several partners, plus there are certain things that can be done in January for our air shield. It is crucial that this is implemented without any delay. Winter is a huge temptation for Russian terrorists.

Today, there was also a report on our energy sector. I am grateful to all our repair crews, to every employee of energy companies who are now mitigating the consequences of Russian strikes and protecting the system. This diligent work is very important in every region, at every facility. And they are responsible not only for their specific facility, but for the whole country – for the resilience of our entire state and the protection of all our people. We must do our utmost now at all levels, from the Government and the Ministry of Energy to all our regions and communities.

The day before, a new arms package from the United States of America was announced – as agreed with the President, we are accelerating the delivery. The pace of logistics is increasing, and this is exactly what we need. This package is worth USD 725 million. It includes missiles for air defense systems, artillery, and means to stabilize our positions. Thank you!

I thank everyone who is helping us!

I thank everyone who is defending and strengthening our country’s positions, just as we need them, to achieve peace!

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

Karma is a bitch. #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 3, 2024 at 3:41 PM

That’s going to leave a mark!

The police, today more in numbers than before, arrest people in groups. Those detained are brutally beaten in detention cars as reported by those released already. It counts as torture really. Water cannons and tear gases are now in use too. Day 6. #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 3, 2024 at 3:03 PM

It’s reported that tonight there’s unprecedented numbers of police who have all side exit roads of Rustaveli blocked, and that they are vicious in arresting people – throwing them down and kicking them endlessly. #GeorgiaProtests

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 3, 2024 at 2:53 PM

There are various reports that the special forces squads of Zviad Kharazishvili AKA “Khareba” that are responsible for the crackdowns are high on amphetamine. Look at the eyes of this one in the video. Even the President told the French media about this. #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 3, 2024 at 1:17 PM

Kremlist savages!

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 3, 2024 at 2:29 PM

In Batumi, they put Bidzina Ivanishvili’s coffin on fire. Believe me, it takes rage for Georgians to do this. And Ivanishvili is absolutely paranoid about anything in any form resembling cursing or witchcraft. #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 3, 2024 at 12:27 PM

The family of this man, in a critical condition, insists not to allow the propaganda that it was the fireworks, as the regime wants to make it look. It was a gas capsule.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 3, 2024 at 9:00 AM

1/ The Constitutional Court did not consider the lawsuits filed by the President and the opposition regarding the declaration of the elections as unconstitutional. Two out of nine judges, Teimuraz Tughushi and Giorgi Kverenchkhiladze, expressed dissenting opinions.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 3, 2024 at 6:49 AM

2/ Salome Zourabichvili filed a lawsuit with the Constitutional Court on November 19, arguing that the results of the October 26 elections should be annulled due to violations of election universality and vote secrecy.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 3, 2024 at 6:49 AM

3/ 30 opposition politicians also filed a lawsuit in this regard. These 2 cases were consolidated by the Court.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 3, 2024 at 6:51 AM

⚡️Abkhaz council votes against ratification of controversial agreement with Russia.

The council of Russian-occupied Abkhazia against a controversial investment agreement with Moscow, which sparked mass protests last month, Interfax reported on Dec. 3.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 3, 2024 at 11:24 AM

The Kyiv Independent has the details:

The council of Russian-occupied Abkhazia against a controversial investment agreement with Moscow, which sparked mass protests last month, Interfax reported on Dec. 3.

Twenty-one lawmakers voted against the law, which sought to permit Russians to purchase property in Abkhazia, while two abstained.

Abkhazia is internationally recognized as part of Georgia, but is under illegal occupation by Russian forces, which back the local breakaway leadership.

In late October, representatives of Russia and Abkhazia signed an investment agreement in Moscow.

Soon after, demonstrators in Abkhazia rallied outside the local proxy parliament, denouncing the deal as one-sided and advantageous only to Moscow. Despite the council’s decision to postpone the agreement’s consideration, protesters demanded an immediate vote to reject it.

Aslan Bzhania, president of the breakaway state submitted his letter of resignation on Nov. 19.

Abkhazia has recently drawn attention due to rumors of accelerated construction at the Ochamchire naval base, allegedly being developed by Russia.

Despite satellite imagery showing construction activity, Abkhaz Foreign Minister Sergei Shamba claimed in September that there are “no plans” for a Russian naval base in the occupied region, which lacks a navy of its own.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine would target Russia’s Black Sea Fleet “wherever it is stationed,” hinting at potential strikes on Russian-controlled areas of Georgia, including Abkhazia.

Lithuania:

Denied entry into Lithuania due to their responsibility for human rights abuses:
Bidzina Ivanishvili
Vakhtang Gomelauri
Shalva Bedoidze
Ioseb Chelidze
Aleksandre Darakhvelidze
Giorgi Butkhuzi
Zviad Kharazishvili
Mileri Lagazauri
Mirza Kezevadze
Vaja Siradze
Teimuraz Kupatadze

— Gabrielius Landsbergis (@landsbergis.bsky.social) December 2, 2024 at 7:31 AM

My understanding is that the other Baltic states have done the same thing.

The three Baltic States jointly agreed to impose national sanctions against those who suppressed legitimate protests in Georgia. Opponents of democracy and violators of human rights are not welcome in our countries. 🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹🇬🇪

— Gabrielius Landsbergis (@landsbergis.bsky.social) December 1, 2024 at 1:30 PM

My understanding was correct.

Once again Foreign Minister Landsbergis cuts right to the heart of the matter in regard to the events in Georgia:

How many more times are we going to choose to lose to Russia? How many millions of people are we going to abandon to oppression? Why aren’t we making it harder for the Kremlin to sway elections and choke democracies one by one?

— Gabrielius Landsbergis (@landsbergis.bsky.social) November 30, 2024 at 3:17 PM

And in Ukraine:

Did the decision to lift restrictions in Kursk come too late? Yes.

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— Gabrielius Landsbergis (@landsbergis.bsky.social) November 27, 2024 at 8:28 AM

The NATO Summit:

⚡️ We must focus on military aid — NATO chief sidesteps question on invitation for Ukraine.

NATO’s two-day ministerial meeting will focus on providing Ukraine with enough military aid to enable it to enter any possible negotiations from a position of strength, Secretary General Mark Rutte said.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 3, 2024 at 6:39 AM

Rutte dodged a journalist’s question about whether Ukraine should expect an invitation during the meeting, saying only that “allies agree that the future of Ukraine is in NATO.”

— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 3, 2024 at 6:39 AM

From The Kyiv Independent:

NATO’s two-day ministerial meeting will focus on providing Ukraine with enough military aid to enable it to enter any possible negotiations from a position of strength, Secretary General Mark Rutte said ahead of the meeting in Brussels on Dec. 3.

Rutte dodged a journalist’s question about whether Ukraine should expect an invitation during the meeting, saying only that “allies agree that the future of Ukraine is in NATO.”

“And during the Washington summit, we agreed on the irreversible path towards NATO,” the secretary general added, referencing the outcomes of the allied meeting in July.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha asked on Nov. 29 that his NATO counterparts issue an invitation for Ukraine during the meeting in Brussels.

Kyiv submitted its application to join NATO in September 2022, and in July 2024, the alliance affirmed Ukraine’s “irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership” — although Ukraine has not received any definitive news about its future accession.

The matter becomes ever more pressing as Kyiv sees the invitation as a key condition for a just and lasting peace. Discussions about possible peace talks next year are mounting as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said he aims to find a quick end to the war and bring both sides to the negotiating table.

“The meeting in the next two days will very much concentrate on how to make sure that Ukraine, whenever it decides to enter into peace talks, will do so from a position of strength,” Rutte said.

“And to get there, it is crucial that more military aid will be pumped into Ukraine.”

Several allies remain opposed to Ukraine’s quick accession to the alliance, including Germany, Slovakia, and Hungary, according to earlier reporting and statements. Reuters reported that an invitation during the upcoming summit was unlikely due to a lack of consensus.

According to an earlier statement by Trump’s pick for a Ukraine peace envoy, Keith Kellogg, Ukraine could temporarily forego NATO aspirations in exchange for alternative security guarantees and arms.

In a statement issued ahead of the meeting and the subsequent Ukraine-NATO Council session on Dec. 3, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry rejected any guarantees that would serve as substitutes for a full NATO membership.

“Having the bitter experience of the Budapest Memorandum behind us, we will not settle for any alternatives, surrogates, or substitutes for Ukraine’s full membership in NATO,” the statement said just two days before the 30th anniversary of the memorandum’s signing.

Last week, President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested ending the “hot phase” of war along Ukraine’s eastern front in exchange for NATO membership, not immediately including occupied territories.

In separate comments on a potential invite on Dec. 1, Zelensky said that the alliance’s Article 5 collective defense principle may not apply to Ukrainian territories facing active combat if Ukraine were to join NATO.

Rutte says Ukraine should postpone any negotiations with Russia until Western allies can send enough weapons for us to push ahead…

Thank you, Mark. It took us only almost three years to come to this conclusion. Maybe in 10 more years, someone will start acting on it.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 3, 2024 at 3:05 PM

And I know I sound frustrated out of nowhere, but we spent three years with a US president who wasn’t trying to force Ukraine to negotiate, drip-feeding aid instead of helping us win the war. Now, we’ve woken up, when the new US president will likely pressure us into negotiations. We had 3 years!

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 3, 2024 at 3:28 PM

⚡️ Ukraine won’t accept security guarantees substituting NATO membership.

Ukraine will refuse any kind of “alternatives, surrogates or substitutes” to full NATO membership, according to a Foreign Ministry statement on Dec. 3.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 3, 2024 at 3:40 AM

“Having the bitter experience of the Budapest Memorandum behind us, we will not settle for any alternatives, surrogates, or substitutes for Ukraine’s full membership in NATO,” the statement said just two days before the 30th anniversary of the memorandum’s signing.

— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 3, 2024 at 3:41 AM

Today, on the 30th anniversary of the Budapest Memorandum, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared that Ukraine will not accept any security guarantees short of full NATO membership, asserting that this is the only effective means to stop Russian blackmail.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 3, 2024 at 2:53 AM

⚡️Yale study names over 300 Ukrainian children forcibly deported to Russia.

Yale study names over 300 Ukrainian children forcibly deported to Russia. Russia has carried out a “systematic, intentional, and widespread” program of forced adoption and Russification of Ukrainian children.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 3, 2024 at 3:53 PM

From The Kyiv Independent:

Russia has carried out a “systematic, intentional, and widespread” program of forced adoption and Russification of deported Ukrainian children, according to a study from the Yale School of Public Health published Dec. 3.

Since February 2022, nearly 20,000 Ukrainian children have been abducted from Russian-occupied territories and sent to other Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine or to Russia itself, according to a Ukrainian national database.

The study reported that Russia’s Aerospace Forces and military aircraft transported multiple groups of children in 2022 under Russian President Vladimir Putin’s orders.

According to researchers, child placement databases in Russia have falsely listed Ukrainian children as if they were born in Russia. Some agencies operating the databases later limited the publicly available data regarding Ukrainian children after the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Putin and Russian Children’s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova in March 2023.

Like the ICC, the Yale researchers determined that Putin and Lvova-Belova ordered and facilitated the system of child deportation and forced assimilation into Russian families.

The study also found that children from Ukraine had been transported to at least 21 regions throughout Russia, and after deportation were subjected to pro-Russia re-education before being placed in Russian families.

Psychologists and mental health professionals are involved in the coerced adoption program to help “legitimize” Russia’s human rights abuses with claims that the family placements are medically necessary.

The 314 children identified in the report were all taken from Russian-occupied areas of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. Over 60 have been naturalized as Russian citizens since their abduction, the study found.

The data gathered in the study will be presented to the ICC as evidence of Russian war crimes.

The western bank of the Oksil River:

⚡️ Ukraine prevents Russia from establishing bridgehead west of Oskil River, military says.

Ukrainian troops managed to fend off Russian forces attempting to establish a foothold on the western side of the Oskil River north of Kupiansk, the General Staff reported on Dec. 3.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 3, 2024 at 4:10 AM

Serebryansky Forest:

Fascist Russia doesn’t just destroy Ukrainian cities – this is the Serebryansky Forest, near the front line positions of the soldiers of Ukraine’s 53rd Brigade. This once majestic forest has been reduced to a wasteland of dead, bare tree trunks. Ecocide.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) December 3, 2024 at 4:32 AM

The Kursk cross border offensive:

JDAM-ER (GBU-62) air strike on the Russian positions in the Kursk region, Cherkasska Konopelka (51.149343, 35.343372)
t.me/soniah_hub/7…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) December 3, 2024 at 9:39 AM

Ukrainian marines from the 36th Brigade set fire to a column of Russian airborne troops in the Kursk direction.
t.me/c/2232931988…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 3, 2024 at 9:24 AM

Toretsk:

The operations of the tank battalion of the 12th Special Purpose Brigade “Azov” targeting enemy positions in urban areas and tree lines along the Toretsk direction.
t.me/Pivnenko_NGU…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 3, 2024 at 12:49 PM

Toretsk, Ukraine.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 3, 2024 at 6:49 PM

Zaporizhzhia:

Zaporizhzhia direction. Ukrainian soldiers send their regards.
t.me/c/2232931988…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 3, 2024 at 8:54 AM

Kurakhove:

‘Peaky Blinders’ UAV unit repelled a powerful assault attempt on the village of Maksymivka, south of Kurakhove, this morning. The goal was to encircle the Ukrainian forces in that area using four tanks and six IFVs with dismounts. The convoy was destroyed, including 2 tanks, 2 IFVs, and troops.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 3, 2024 at 4:00 AM

Kharkiv:

It’s December! The city of Kharkiv is pretty dark and upsettingly empty, but we have a Christmas tram and other decorations that are going to light up soon. For the first time in 3 years, they are installed not only underground but also on the streets.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 3, 2024 at 5:16 PM

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,014: Not Now South Korea, We’re Busy!!!!!Post + Comments (13)

sab on Various Links (Dec 12, 2024 @ 6:54pm)

eemom on Accidentally (not really) Like a Martyr (Dec 12, 2024 @ 6:50pm)

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TBone on Accidentally (not really) Like a Martyr (Dec 12, 2024 @ 6:44pm)

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Fuck that bum, let’s go Joe!

We are aware of all internet traditions.

My right to basic bodily autonomy is not on the table. that’s the new deal.

I see no possible difficulties whatsoever with this fool-proof plan.

We’re not going back!

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Let there be snark.

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You come for women, you’re gonna get your ass kicked.

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