Last night in comments both Jay and Y_Y Sima Qian brought us some interesting links and material. Let’s start with Jay’s link to a comment from Bill Browder regarding doing business in Russia:
The Wall Street Journal alleges that the real motivation behind Trump’s eagerness to force Ukraine into an ugly surrender is the idea that a lot of people close to him can make a lot of money doing business and deals in Russia.
If this is true, beyond the disgusting morality of this and the huge geopolitical risks that it creates, none of these people salivating over their future riches are going to make a penny, and perhaps do a lot worse.
I was once the largest foreign investor in Russia and I can say with certainty that the Russians aren’t going to let anyone profit in any way. They will talk nice at the outset to attract the investment, but once it’s there, they will steal, defraud, arrest, torture or even kill to make sure that no American makes any money. I’ve seen it so many times it’s almost universal.
So, this shocking initiative is not only terrible policy, it’s spectacularly stupid business.
Don’t threaten me with a good time!
Y_Y linked to and quoted from this op-ed by Ambassador Zaluzhnyi, which I think really gets to the heart of what Trump, his natsec team, and his surrogates fail to understand about Russia’s genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine. (emphasis mine)
Knowing the political goal of a war makes it possible to understand what the enemy is doing, and how to respond.
The conflict in Ukraine has been going on for 12 years, beginning with the 2014 invasion of Crimea. There is no doubt over Russia’s political goal: the abolition of Ukraine as an independent state. Understanding this has to form the basis for building a strategy that will preserve our statehood.
We are in an extremely difficult situation, where a rushed peace will only lead to a devastating defeat and loss of independence.
I became commander-in-chief of the armed forces of Ukraine in August 2021. Although the military was undergoing a transformation and gaining combat experience, it still had many problems. The Russian army was rapidly increasing its forces and supplies. The Kremlin increased the military budget year after year, invested resources in the defence-industrial complex and purchased more weapons and equipment.
Meanwhile the opposite was happening in Ukraine In 2021, the army was allocated even less money than in the previous year. As a result, our military met a full-scale invasion the following year with a huge shortage of everything, from people to weapons.
At the beginning of 2022, the general staff made calculations that showed the total needed to repel aggression – including for the restoration and replenishment of missile and ammunition stocks – was estimated at tens of billions of pounds, which we did not have. And then Russian tanks rolled over the border.
According to the Russian military theorist Alexander Svechin, there are two types of strategy to achieve a political goal: defeat and attrition. The Russian strategy for defeat envisaged clear military actions: a quick strike on the Ukrainian capital and attacks in other directions.
However, this did not go according to plan. The heroism of Ukrainian citizens was the key to a victory that, although cost us the lives of our best and part of our territory, preserved the state and gave us that most important thing – a chance to fight and make peace on our own terms.
From that moment, the enemy’s strategy changed to one of attrition. Russia in 2023 tried to focus on creating a strong defensive lines, which on the one hand was logical, serving to repel our offensive, and on the other hand, distracted our attention from the main goal.
As Ukraine was pushing back, Russia was implementing a war economy, launching propaganda, changing legislation and building strategic reserves, all while dragging us into a new attritional phase of the conflict for which, just like in 2022, we were not ready.
The events of 2024 and 2025, despite minor achievements at the front, indicate the absolute effectiveness of such a strategy for Russia in its efforts to achieve its political goal.
However, a war of attrition is also being waged on the political front and the economic front. Military actions play an important role in achieving political goals, but are not the final phase.
For example, let’s imagine that Russia completely occupied the Donetsk region. The war would not end, because it would not achieve the political goal. Russia seeks to create conditions to achieve the collapse of Ukraine on the military, economic and political fronts simultaneously.
In the absence of a unified vision of a new security architecture on the European continent, without security guarantees and real financial programmes, the war with Russia risks turning into a broader war with over the capture of Eastern Europe.
War does not always end with the victory of one side and the defeat of the other. We Ukrainians strive for complete victory, but we cannot reject the option of a long-term end to the war.
Peace, even in anticipation of the next war, provides a chance for political change, for deep reforms, for full recovery, economic growth and the return of citizens.
It is even possible to speak about the beginning of the formation of a safe, protected state through innovation and technology; of strengthening the foundations of justice through the fight against corruption and the creation of an honest court system; and of economic development, including on the basis of international economic recovery programmes.
But all this is impossible without effective security guarantees.
Such security guarantees could include: Ukraine’s accession to Nato, the deployment of nuclear weapons on Ukrainian territory or the deployment of a large allied military contingent capable of confronting Russia.
However, there is no talk about this today and, therefore, the war will probably continue. Not only militarily, but also on the political and economic fronts. Russia may change the tools and forms of its aggression, but they will all serve the same purpose.
For us in this situation, the main political goal should be to deprive Russia of the opportunity to carry out aggression against Ukraine in the foreseeable future.
This is an excellent assessment.
As is this.
I bet so many decision-makers in Europe and the US are still pissed off that Ukraine didn’t surrender in those first three days.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 1, 2025 at 7:18 PM
There’s a serial murderer in the neighbourhood. But instead of jailing him, you choose to give him a medal, invite him to the board of a local company, & gift him the homes he robbed.
Doesn’t sound like a nice path to law and order? Then why is russia appeased this way? #russiaisaterroriststate
— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) December 1, 2025 at 12:33 PM
The Zelenskyy’s traveled to Paris today for a variety of meetings.
President Zelenskyy gave a statement at the beginning of his joint presser with President Macron. Video of both the statement and the full presser below, English transcript of the statement after the jump.
