(Image by NEIVANMADE) Just a quick housekeeping note to start. While Ukraine is in the process of moving itself onto the western calendar, including for Christian religious holidays, they have not yet done so for Easter. Eater will be celebrated in Ukraine on 5 May this year. Before we get fully started, I want to …
War for Ukraine Day 767: Russia Bombarded Ukraine Again OvernightPost + Comments (42)
Today, we honor the strength of everyone who has withstood, who is fighting and working, and will surely bring freedom to our entire land – address by the President of Ukraine
31 March 2024 – 18:06
Dear Ukrainians!
Two years have already passed since our warriors, all our people, drove the Russian occupiers out of Kyiv region. Borodyanka, Bucha, Irpin, Hostomel, Moshchun were places of battle, places where Ukrainians fought for their country, for their lives, for their homes free from evil. Today, we honor the strength of everyone who withstood then, who is fighting now, who is working and who will definitely bring freedom to our entire land, to every city and village of Ukraine that Russia wants to appropriate, but which it will have to give back to Ukrainians. Our people, our spirit, our strength will ensure this. Ukrainians build, not destroy. They save lives, and do not pry into the lives of others insatiably, as Moscow does.
Ukraine will definitely win. The key is not to lose faith in ourselves, in our people, and not to waste a single day when we can contribute to Ukraine’s results. That is why Ukraine has risen and will dispel the darkness of captivity. I thank everyone who helps! I thank everyone who is with Ukraine and in Ukraine! I am grateful to our warriors, and for this week’s battles I would like to especially mention the 95th brigade, the 79th air assault brigade, the 44th and 55th separate artillery brigades… Thank you, warriors! I am proud of our people!
Glory to Ukraine!
France:
France's defense minister, Sébastien Lecornu, said France would deliver “hundreds” of armored personnel carriers as part a new aid package to Ukraine in its war against Russian invaders. The vehicles are decommissioned but still operating.
France will also supply more Aster 30… pic.twitter.com/1jZgMbU7qm
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) March 31, 2024
France’s defense minister, Sébastien Lecornu, said France would deliver “hundreds” of armored personnel carriers as part a new aid package to Ukraine in its war against Russian invaders. The vehicles are decommissioned but still operating.
France will also supply more Aster 30 anti-aircraft missiles for SAMP/T launchers.
Source: Kyiv Post
🇫🇷 creating a specialist logistics brigade to support divisional level high intensity operations. Rebuilding this kind of capability is exactly what @NATO is asking of Allies, in particular larger ones whose Divisions and Corps are the framework in which others fight. https://t.co/NsXutwrYD9
— Angus Lapsley (@ACWLapsley) March 29, 2024
The US:
The U.S. ambassador suffering under air raids alongside Ukrainians. This is a solvable problem, but Congress is on yet another vacation.
Do we care about our diplomats? About our allies? U.S. credibility is burning away by the day. https://t.co/Vpldcbzxul
— Doug Klain (@DougKlain) March 31, 2024
These perceptions of American weaknesses, as well as concerns regarding Trump being reelected are starting to have significant effects.
"If the US commitment to…NATO allies were called into question…the most apposite comparison would be with the key role that…Ernest Bevin played during the first post-war years. UK efforts…played a vital part in making European defence cooperation possible" https://t.co/S1xOIw2sUI
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) March 28, 2024
Here’s the summary of the study from RUSI:
This paper examines the possibility of Donald Trump’s potentially radical programme of change, both at home and abroad, with a focus on the US foreign policy programme. It outlines the economic factors underpinning US defence and security and explores the question of alliances, especially in relation to Ukraine. The paper concludes with an overview of the impact of a second Trump presidency on UK and European defence priorities.
If Donald Trump were to be re-elected this year, a rapid reduction in US aid to Ukraine seems probable. European allies could also face the prospect that the US’s commitment to NATO might be ended, or at least substantially reduced.
Even if a Democrat is returned to the White House, they will face the reality of a US defence budget that is both fiscally constrained and increasingly stretched geographically.
The Ukraine war has already led to European rearmament on an often- underappreciated scale. European defence spending has increased by 60% since the 2014 invasion and is set to increase further in the years ahead. The most remarkable increase is in Germany, whose commitment to spending 2% of its GDP on defence could, if sustained over the coming years, make it Europe’s most formidable conventional power. These new defence investments across Europe, combined with the destruction of a large part of Russia’s capability in battle, offers an opportunity for Europe to take on a larger share of the burden of its own defence.
If the US were to substantially reduce its military contribution to NATO, debate would intensify on reforming the institutional architecture of European defence. But the immediate priority would be to steady the ship, ensuring that the major European powers, working closely with NATO and the EU, take a united stance against any Russian attempt to take advantage of US withdrawal.
For the next decade at least, there will be strong pressure on the UK to prioritise those capabilities that are most important in providing for European defence, especially those which fill any gaps left by a possible American withdrawal. Although UK defence spending has grown more slowly than that of other European countries, the re-emergence of an acute threat from Russia has driven a commitment to a major recapitalisation of the UK’s nuclear capability.
And here’s the link to the full study.
The one part of that summary I disagree with is this:
If Donald Trump were to be re-elected this year, a rapid reduction in US aid to Ukraine seems probable.
You can’t rapidly reduce US aid to Ukraine given that the US is no longer providing aid to Ukraine because Trump demanded that House and Senate Republicans block any and all further aid to Ukraine. There’s a longer discussion in regard to the fact that Trump is out of office yet is significantly affecting US foreign policy. Both through his control of Republican representatives and senators and because he’s running his own shadow foreign policy through Internet troll Ric Grennell, who will be the Secretary of State if Trump manages to get elected in November.
Grenell’s intervention highlights the extraordinary role he has carved out in the three years since Trump left the White House. From Central America to Eastern Europe and beyond, Grenell has been acting as a kind of shadow secretary of state, meeting with far-right leaders and movements, pledging Trump’s support and, at times, working against the current administration’s policies.
It’s unusual for a former diplomatic official to continue meeting with foreign leaders and promoting the agenda of a presidential candidate on the world stage. Grenell’s globe-trotting has sparked deep concern among career national security officials and diplomats, who warn that he emboldens bad actors and jeopardizes U.S. interests in service of Trump’s personal agenda. In the process, Grenell is openly charting a foreign policy road map for a Republican presidential nominee who has found common cause with authoritarian leaders and threatened to blow up partnerships with democratic allies.
For those of you on BlueSky, I did two threads on this problem two weeks ago. The first is here and the second is here.
The Ukrainians liberated Bucha two years ago today. Followed shortly after by the other cities and towns in the north of Kyiv Oblast.
Two years ago, the entire world saw the real sense of our fight. Including those for whom, unfortunately, it was 'just one more war'. They have seen what this war really is. And that Ukraine defends not only its state borders and sovereignty, but everything that makes people… pic.twitter.com/d7S1aqqcfc
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) March 31, 2024
Two years ago, the entire world saw the real sense of our fight. Including those for whom, unfortunately, it was ‘just one more war’. They have seen what this war really is. And that Ukraine defends not only its state borders and sovereignty, but everything that makes people human.
Ever wonder why Ukraine doesn't just let Russia keep its occupied territories? Think of Bucha. Murders, rape, torture—this is what Russian occupation brings. Today marks two years since liberation pic.twitter.com/PK7TLTxFv9
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 31, 2024
Bucha massacre memorial next to the Andrew the Apostle Church, at what used to be mass grave during Russian occupation pic.twitter.com/2pfuiDK37N
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 31, 2024
Unhealing wounds of Russia's massacre in Ukraine's Bucha, two years on.
This is the city cemetery section established over the last two years. 95% of the graves are dated March 2022 – the time of Russian occupation.
Hundreds of graves. Men, women, teenagers. Many are buried… pic.twitter.com/2AacT6BeHk
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 31, 2024
Unhealing wounds of Russia’s massacre in Ukraine’s Bucha, two years on.
This is the city cemetery section established over the last two years. 95% of the graves are dated March 2022 – the time of Russian occupation.
Hundreds of graves. Men, women, teenagers. Many are buried unidentified and marked with nothing but numbers.
That’s what it is…
The Kremlin’s exploitation of the Western argument for “stopping the bloodshed” conceals a critical nuance. Stopping the fighting does not stop the killing when it comes to Russia. The killing continues in Russian torture chambers on territory that Russia occupies – a process… https://t.co/dzphqb3yzz
— Nataliya Bugayova (@nataliabugayova) March 31, 2024
The Kremlin’s exploitation of the Western argument for “stopping the bloodshed” conceals a critical nuance. Stopping the fighting does not stop the killing when it comes to Russia. The killing continues in Russian torture chambers on territory that Russia occupies – a process that is less visible to Western audiences and in a place where victims are stripped of the means to defend themselves. More in our latest
@TheStudyofWar essay “Denying Russia’s Only Strategy for Success.” https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/denying-russia%E2%80%99s-only-strategy-success
Greetings to all Christians who celebrate Easter today.
I especially want to congratulate all military personnel who celebrate Easter on duty.
Thanks to your courage and dedication, thousands of Ukrainian families today have the opportunity to celebrate one of the most… pic.twitter.com/rOyrG65GkQ— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) March 31, 2024
Greetings to all Christians who celebrate Easter today.
I especially want to congratulate all military personnel who celebrate Easter on duty.
Thanks to your courage and dedication, thousands of Ukrainian families today have the opportunity to celebrate one of the most important Christian holidays at home in comfort.
Thank you, warriors.I wish you joy, unity, and peace.
May all your prayers be heard.
I finally had some time to summarize the front movements of the last 6 months according to my maps. It is the same time period since the US Congress has been hampered by Trump and his allies to release the next military aid to Ukraine. I concluded the following numbers:
Russian… pic.twitter.com/SSBH0qm5VA
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) March 31, 2024
I finally had some time to summarize the front movements of the last 6 months according to my maps. It is the same time period since the US Congress has been hampered by Trump and his allies to release the next military aid to Ukraine. I concluded the following numbers:
Russian gains:
250.1 square kilometers / 96.6 square miles
For comparison reasons I have included the Ukrainian gains from the counter offensive which kicked off in summer last year. Those are the numbers (minus the recent Russian gains):
297.7 square kilometers / 115.1 square miles
I have included the maps with detailed distribution where those gains were achieved.
The above mentioned numbers do not include the events around Krynky, respectively Kherson.
Avdiivka:
Russians used the 6 tank regiment of 90 tank division.
The point is that due to the doctrine elements of such divisions should develop the success after mechanised units manage to breakthrough enemy positions.
But there was no breakthrough before this charge.
— Kriegsforscher (@OSINTua) March 31, 2024
And in such hard moments your support is crucial. And feel it.
With your help we repaired (again) two our cars, bought a tablet, bought two Starlinks (and spare parts for them) and also bought 5 antennas for our drones (we are waiting when the other 3 will arrive).
-3400$🔥🫡 pic.twitter.com/62TUHvdecI
— Kriegsforscher (@OSINTua) March 31, 2024
Kharkiv:
Kharkiv is under russian missile attack for the second day in a row! Explosion reported in the city!
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) March 31, 2024
The Zaporizhzhia front:
Another Russian armored thrust was blunted, this time at the Zaporizhzhia front. Around 11 knocked out vehicles can be seen on that footage. And the heat signatures tell us that those a fresh losses.
I can only speculate, but I believe that Russians try to break through the… pic.twitter.com/JHutslFwQG
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) March 31, 2024
Another Russian armored thrust was blunted, this time at the Zaporizhzhia front. Around 11 knocked out vehicles can be seen on that footage. And the heat signatures tell us that those a fresh losses.
I can only speculate, but I believe that Russians try to break through the lines in hopes that the Ukrainian stockpiles are low enough for such an attempt. They apparently learnt the hard way. They will probably switch back to meat waves.
Source: https://t.me/ukrbavovna/14130
Moscow:
Russia demands arrest of SBU head on accusations of attacking Crocus City. Textbook example from a terrorist country known for violating every international law—deploying disinformation to mask its incompetence and incite anger against others. pic.twitter.com/QKFe270Apg
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 31, 2024
The Kremlin's shamelessness knows no bounds.
Even Moscow's massive domestic security failure, the worst terror attack in 20 years committed and confirmed by the 'Islamic State', is used to instigate anti-Ukrainian hatred in Russia.
"Yeah, we fucked this up, but at least we can… https://t.co/McSwg7d98c
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 31, 2024
Kremlin’s shamelessness knows no bounds.
Even Moscow’s massive domestic security failure, the worst terror attack in 20 years committed and confirmed by the ‘Islamic State’, is used to instigate anti-Ukrainian hatred in Russia.
“Yeah, we fucked this up, but at least we can weaponize this act of Jihadi mass murder in Moscow for our war on Ukraine, with not a single piece of evidence behind our claims.”
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
The tweet is from last night:
These ladies and I wish you to have a good Easter 🐣 pic.twitter.com/GZSEx3Rbij
— Patron (@PatronDsns) March 30, 2024
Open thread!